890: Cults of Darkness and Shadow - Game over!

[startransmission]

Well there we have it, I say we wait until the next deadline and get that Data replacement.

Seacore, I'm struck with how gung-ho you are over the data/mipe lynch. I think it's bad strategy to wait to lynch anybody unless we can lynch two people. We have scum in our sights, the incants are on the table, why spend the time coordinating a double lynch? Why wait that extra week? Somebody said a double lynch should occur naturally, and I agree. Let's not force the issue.

[Seacore]

I think it's bad strategy to wait to lynch anybody unless we can lynch two people

But we can.
Please explain to me the consequences of waiting to enable a double lynch?

[semioldguy]

And let's make mipe accept his fate by lynching him.

You've also got it backwards. As the incantations currently stand mipe is the one who can save himself right now, not Datadanne. mipe just has to hammer Datadanne right before your coordinated double lynch goes off and he saves himself.

By voting Datadanne are you saying that you are okay with giving mipe an out from the lynch today if he so chooses? Because that is what you are allowing. This is why EVERYONE should incant their FIRST suspect.

A double lynch is never going to benefit the town if the only people who accept the fate of the double lynch are townies. In EVERY scenario, it will take two days to kill the scum that saves himself. Here is a breakdown of scenarios under the assumption townies should be resigned to their fate in a double lynch:

2 Town:
They both get lynched. Minus two town. Bad news for town.

1 Scum, 1 Town:
Scum saves himself, town dies. We lynch scum day two, letting him potentially live an extra day. Bad for town.

2 Scum:
One of them is the lucky one who saves himself. It still takes the town two days to lynch them both. Normal for town.

So the best case scenario is if both of the players we are lynching are scum, in which case we obtain the same results by single lynching two days in a row. Only by doing it two days in a row we get a better idea of everyone's suspicions as they can't hide behind voting the second lynch because everyone is voting their top suspect.

[Seacore]

Also, I'm not that gung-ho anymore, Semioldman has done a good job (as he did with my "no votes unless you mean them" idea) of persuading against my position. I'm still for a double lynch, and I absolutely object that a natural double lynch is the only way to go, but I'm definitely not raving for it, I'm just trying to keep the argument going.

Right now, the best play in my eyes is for data to be replaced and for Mipe to be lynched after the replacement posts their thoughts. And I think everybody who is for a double lynch probably agrees with me (based on their statements).

However, should data remain and remain useless, I think its a good idea to double lynch them.
Yes it's a gamble.
But it's a gamble that will provide a lot of information.

[semioldguy]

Please explain to me the consequences of waiting to enable a double lynch?

I have, but you choose to ignore those consequences.

[Seacore]

Please explain to me the consequences of waiting to enable a double lynch?

I have, but you choose to ignore those consequences.

No, I'm not talking about the consequences of a double lynch, I'm talking about the consequences of waiting. That seems to be Start's main concern, is that we should do it RIGHT NOW because we can!

[semioldguy]

Because this conversation that's happening right now is a huge distraction. It isn't scum hunting. It isn't progressing the game. It's dragging it out. It's allowing players to not be active.

[Seacore]

If we weren't having this conversation, it would be Night and there's be no conversation except for the scum.

So how is that different?

[Seacore]

Anyway, with Semi, DeathSauce and Starttransmission added to Data and Mipe (with a fairly inactive DisCode) it seems we don't really have the numbers to pull off a double lynch anyway.

So what's better for the town, lynching prior to a data replace? or after?

[semioldguy]

Because it lets us get to tomorrow where we can start scum hunting again.

[Seacore]

So your argument is that you're impatient? Okay. Its not actually costing us anything, because we'll still have that time to hunt when the day starts. I don't see how the scum are gaining anything from this extra day time.

[Chaco]

Yeah, semi did a good job of stating his position. And to be honest, I'm going to go with him. double lynches are beneficial if we have confirmed scum. As much as I love policy lynches on lurkers. In this game it is too risky to go around suspect lynching and throwing a lurker in there with it. Although that is like my dream. <.<

I'm for the Datadanne replacement, however he has an annoying habit of not getting replaced from what I've seen. If it goes into later days, get rid of him. He'll be of no use in end game when he's not posting content.

So, my vote goes back to Mipe.

Incant: Mipe

[Seacore]

Okay, I'm willing to go with the single lynch too, then. But I'd like a few thoughts on my replacement question first.

Lynch before replacement or after?

[semioldguy]

So your argument is that you're impatient? Okay. Its not actually costing us anything, because we'll still have that time to hunt when the day starts. I don't see how the scum are gaining anything from this extra day time.

I don't see what town is gaining by this extra day time, waiting once we already found our lynch for the day. Unless enough people think we haven't found the lynch for the day, in which case we wouldn't be able to lynch anyway and there would be more to talk about.

So in other words, the sooner this time of not-scum-hunting ends, the less not-scum-hunting time we have to look back on or to distract us once day two and more actual-scum-hunting happens.

Does anyone with an incantation on Datadanne suspect him of being scum more than mipe?

[Chaco]

Okay, I'm willing to go with the single lynch too, then. But I'd like a few thoughts on my replacement question first.

Lynch before replacement or after?

Lynch before, night gives him time to catch up without a load of pressure. That's just my preference when replacing in. *shrugs*

[semioldguy]

My vote is to lynch sooner rather than later.

If he doesn't pick up his prod, he is going to get replaced anyway so we wouldn't need to wait.

If he does pick up his prod, there really isn't much else that's going to happen today anyway if we are set on a mipe lynch that he wouldn't also be able to address tomorrow.

Or he could die during the night, in which case waiting for him to check in or be replaced probably isn't going to help us much either way.

[Seacore]

Semi- I think most people have been clear that Data is a policy lynch, we just disagree with you as to whether policy lynches are bad in this case or not.
The extra time was to organise the double lynch, which would have cost us nothing, I don't buy the distraction comment.

But thats fine, enough people have jumped off the double lynch ship, so its kinda moot for today.

I'm happy with Chaco's assessment that lynching now gives the replacement more time to catch up without the need to say "I'm 10 pages in, almost there"

Unvote. Vote: Mipe

[SerialClergyman]

Just lynch mipe. Easy D1 lynch, good chance of flipping scum - lets not do anything to cut down on the town too early.

More votes please.

[Percy]

Mod: Sorry, to clarify your use of 'next'. Does this mean, later today (what's site time again?) or does this mean the deadline after that?

Tuesday 8th December, 6pm - the next time the required number of incantations drops.

Site time is the time that appears in your post; for example, at the top of the post where Seacore asked this question, you can see:

Posted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 7:52 pm

I have updated the OP with timezone conversions.

[Magua]

Unincant: mipe, Incant: Datadanne

Not so much because I want Datadanne lynched at this point, as I don't want mipe lynched.

I want to see if Datadanne gets replaced. I think it's important to get players to take positions now, rather than being able to wait until d2 and see what happens during the night before taking positions. Once we know if Datadanne is going to be replaced, I'll be more amenable to a lynch.

As for the double lynch: It's simple, really. You force the people being double lynched to vote for eachother. Failure to comply results in them getting lynched individually. Once they are voting eachother, neither one can oppurtunistically lynch the other at the last second. The only way that could occur is if a partner did it.

So semi's hypotheticals about scum using it to their advantage do not seem realistic to me -- it's fairly simple to construct a situation where they simply cannot without involving a partner, in which case we get two scum. If one or both refuses to go along with it, then it'll just be a single lynch.

I think my point here is that we obviously have two scum groups. I'm going to take a stab and say we have two nightkills. We can be optimistic about scum crosskills all we want, but the truth is, if we're all so certain that mipe is scum, we are best served by going after the next scummiest, because otherwise, for every person we lynch, *each* cult gets to decide a kill of their own. Two kills is greater than one lynch.

[SerialClergyman]

Magua, I don't understand. Are you saying you don't want to lynch mipe now and want him hung out as a night kill target, or that you don't want him lynched without a double lynch, or what?

[semioldguy]

If we also think either of the scum teams has a guardian, or that mipe has a partner that is a guardian, then we need to lynch those we think are most likely scum and not count on a night kill. Plus not lynching the most scummy player opens up a whole can of WIFOM for every night they survive.

We should lynch the player we find most scummy. It would be dumb to do otherwise.

[Seacore]

Oh yeah, I'm definitely not on board with letting mipe off the hook to be a target for a night kill. I hope that the cults will be focussing on each other, but I don't trust them to be that effective.

[SerialClergyman]

Don't put words into his mouth, I'm waiting for him to clarify what he meant.

[Datadanne]

Mod: Please replace me.

Or, Im going to die anyway, So why bother?