Mini 878: Nouns Mafia - Da game is ovah!

[Budja]

@Macavity, TBH I didn't read 797. I only really began reading from the claiming part.

1. I didn't know elvis had a redirect. (stupid but I didn't join the dots on this)
2. I didn't consider the 3 scum, sk possibility. If we have a third scum now, I would guess Iec.
So you can ignore what I said before.

EK bring up a good point that Iec could be a scum name-cop. I hadn't considered that possibility. So I would consider Iec possible scum.
The reason for the "Stethoscope" make a more sense too.

@Elvis, I try to read up on games at least a bit before I replace. (I have never actually being NKed before so I never really considered that).

---

SK (possibly with RB power)
Mafia Namecop (Possible)

Mafia Roleblocker (pretty much certain)

I can see that lynching the SK give a likely scum victory if 2 scum are left.
scum roleblock EK. Scum win.

But does EK was blocked seems to imply SC is not bulletproof.
If so, SC may not be the SK or perhaps has a RB power instead of being bulletproof.

New Reads:
Percy/SC are both not town.
Iec could be not town.
ML is likely town.
EK is town.

[MacavityLock]

OK, thanks for your honesty, Budja. The reason I asked is specifically about the first part of my 797, where it discusses why we should consider not lynching SC-SK today and going after maf. Now that I know that Percy read it (via his addressing the SpyreX double-kill discussion later in that post), I have to ask: Percy, your 815 includes the following:

I am willing to claim whenever elvis wants me to. I don't buy SC's claim (bulletproof townie in a game with a bomb? No attempt to draw the NK? His noun matching his power perfectly? This is a scum fakeclaim, guys), his hammer of Seol is scummy as hell, and I think he should be lynched as soon as we're done claiming, barring some massive inconsistency in the claims.

So, are you maf looking for an easy win by lynching SC-SK?

[Iecerint]

I said I would post again, so I'm doing so, but I don't really see anything new to comment on. I thought there would be something else in Percy's post, but I don't see much that hasn't already been dealt with elsewhere or in my prior post. Please let me know if you'd like me to address anything I've missed.

[Iecerint]

Percy, you have indicated who you think is scum. Who specifically do you think should be lynched and why?

[elvis_knits]

As usual, I begin my morning of multi-posting.

Things I am thinking about now:

1) I AM suspicious of Iecerint. A namecop is a scum power usually.

2) I want to look back at the way Iecerint claimed that he was RBed. I posted in thread that I was asking, so I am just wondering if the mod would tell the scum that he was going to tell me. And perhaps that's why Iecerint claimed RB, to get out in front of me when I claimed RB. He had already claimed this really confusing thing about getting no info on me last night, and if he thought I was going to say I was RBed, maybe he figured he had to also or else look really suspect? I will go into this later, as this is an odd point, and brings up a lot of scenarios in my head.

3) I'm still looking at the Netopalis wagon. Boxmanscum was on the wagon. But no other scum unless Iecerint or ML is scum. ML is the person I am most confident is town at this point. So I see a very real possibility that Iecerint could have been pushing the Net wagon to save his buddy boxman.

HOWEVER, still suspicious of Percy for reasons mentioned yesterday, so he's not off the hook either.

I guess they could both be scum together, but I wonder if one of THEM isn't the SK. Percy has been going after Iecerint since the beginning of the game, which suggests they probably aren't scum together unless they did some masterful bussing (and I do not mean bus driving here!).

Percy's suggestion that we do some old-fashioned scum hunting is a good idea too. A lot of the claims stuff might be WIFOM, so I think we have to add in a bit more scum hunting at this point to bolster our decision.

[elvis_knits]

@elvis: Your observation about "Stethoscope" being a VT role is spot on, and I think it's even more likely that the namecop is a scum role.

My "can use more than one shot in a night" power is quite neat, and note that I included this detail

before

Iec claimed. I think the cleanest explanation for two roleblocks is that there weren't, and that Iec has claimed that he was RBed to throw doubt on my claim.

Okay, so let's look how this all went down. There was some speculation about RB or bulletproof or NKimmunity, etc. Finally, I just decided to ask the mod. I actually didn't think he would tell me, but I figured it was worth a shot. Here's the progression:

I have asked the mod if he can tell me if I was RBed. Some mods do notify players, so I just want to make sure. If he will tell me, I will tell the rest of you.

I am A Mostly Empty Bottle of Jack Daniels, a two-shot bus driver. Last night I switched SpyreX and elvis_knits, and I've still got one use. I actually could have used both of my shots in one night, but I chose to do nothing N1 and keep one for N3.

If elvis was blocked, it was because someone tried to block SpyreX. If the scum were concerned that SpyreX would get more powers, they may have tried to block him while killing the vig. Either that, or there is no RB and SC is in fact unNKable.

I am Randall Kennedy, author of the 2003 book [removed]: The Strange Career of a Troubling Word, Cop. When I investigate someone, I learn their noun and alignment.

N1 I investigated ML because I thought he was active enough to draw conclusions if he was scum, but inactive enough that it would be hard to get a conclusive read on him otherwise. I learned that his noun was "Picasso's Guernica" and that he was town. My results indicated specifically that he was town rather than that he was "Innocent," so I think this clears him of both the SK and mafia roles.

N2 I investigated SX because I thought he was scummy enough to survive N2 and he was a major suspect of mine given Seol's flip (i.e. hypothetical SCSX and SeolPercy scumteams I mentioned yesterday). I think we could have lynched SC yesterday had he not interfered. It also seemed like elvis would be unlikely to go along with a SX lynch if I didn't have a Cop result on him. I was told that I was not able to investigate SX.

This could reflect that he was NKed, that he was un-investigateable, or that I was RB'd. I asked the Mod about this at the start of D2, but have received no response.

I am inclined to believe it was because SX was NK'd.

(Bolding mine)

Okay. The day had only been going on for like 30 hours, so it is possible that Iecerint sent a PM and hadn't heard back yet, and when drake got around to answering Iecerint, he also answered me at the same time.

BUT, it looks like Iecerint doesn't think he will get an answer, and that he doesn't believe he was RBed.

He makes very little comment about a possible RB on me although I mention it in my first post of the day, and other comment on it.

I'm not sure what this means. I think it could mean he is scum who thought the RB was on SpyreX, so knew I wasn't supposed to have been blocked. It could also mean that he just thought his investigation on spyrex didn't go through because spyrex died, and my kill didn't go through because SC is NK immune.

I don't know. But it says he specifically asked the mod about a RB at the beginning of the day, so the fact that he doesn't seem to think or talk about it is a little odd.

Here's a thought --

If Percy is telling the truth, that means that I was actually "unable to investigate" elvis last night. SX's NK couldn't explain that. So I was roleblocked, EK cannot be investigated, or Percy is lying.

ALERT: I have just been informed via PM that I was roleblocked N2. My N2 result is now independent of Percy's alleged bus-drive, so EK's investigativity is no longer in question. This probably also means that EK was not roleblocked, unless the scum have 2 roleblockers or something. (I imagine that EK will be able to let us know about this.) This means that SC is most likely bulletproof.

So Iecerint claims to have been RBed last night. I'd be interested in hearing from elvis whether she was RBed or not (because if the mod told Iec, the mod should also be able to tell elvis), as the question of SC's role hinges on this, and Iec's as well.

Interesting that Percy's first reaction on hearing Iecerint was RBed is to wait to see if I was RBed also.

I think normally a person would assume I was not RBed if they thought Iecerint was RBed.

Unless he thought Iecerint was lying scum already, or knew that there had been two blocks.

OMG...

I haven't read through all the posts made last night yet... quick skim says Iecerint is claiming to be RBed.

But the Mod has informed me that:

I WAS ROLEBLOCKED.

WTF does this mean?

Basically, my findings speak to some suspicious areas for both Iecerint and Percy.

[Iecerint]

elvis, I did not target you last night. I targeted SX last night. Refer to my claim post for why.

I asked the Mod about whether I was roleblocked as soon as I saw that my target (SX) had died. I was suspicious because my result did not indicate that SX was innocent, but rather indicated that I could not investigate him. I did not receive a PM from the Mod on this issue until moments before my ALERT post.

I am unlikely to be scum with Percy, and, even if I were, I am unlikely to be the roleblocker.

[elvis_knits]

I agree you are unlikely to be scum with Percy and if you are scum, I expect that you are a mafia noun cop (or some such title) and not the roleblocker. If you are scum, I expect that you could not use your power last night -- since you would have had to do the killing with your buddy doing the blocking.

All in all, even though I am unsure about you, I agree that you are not at all likely to be the RBer, and thus should not be lynched today.

[Iecerint]

Two thoughts:

A. Based on my prior relative claim of when I received my N2 result clarification PM, you are probably in a decent position to confirm my receipt of it. This assumes that the Mod sent both PMs in one sitting. It's possible that he would willfully subvert this, but I doubt it. (The time can be inferred from the ALERT post being a triplepost or something absurd like that, so I figure this is OK to point out.)

B. I see why you were confused that I targeted you N2. This is what happened:

1. I targeted SX and learned that I could not investigate him N2.
2. I wasn't sure if this was due to SX's death (you can't investigate him; he's dead!) or due to roleblock, so I asked the Mod. (I ruled out that SX was investi-proof because he was town.)
3. Percy claims to have busdriven EK <-> SX.
4. If he's telling the truth, I effectively investigated EK N2.
4. EK is alive, so the explanation for the result changes (!). Either I was roleblocked, or EK is investi-proof. So I said that one of those was true if Percy was telling the truth.
5. The Mod notified me that I was RB'd. Therefore, Percy's busdrive had nothing to do with my result, and EK's investi-proof-hood was no longer in question.

I hope that clears matters up.

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: I had missed your second post. I thought you hadn't been RB'd because the simplest explanation was that SC was just bulletproof. I thought I hadn't been RB'd because the simplest explanation was that SX was killed.

[Iecerint]

(Also, judging from your bolded bit, it looks like I hadn't altogether ruled out that SX was investi-proof, but it was at any rate a comparatively remote explanation.)

[Iecerint]

Alsox2, it looks like you already pointed out that the Mod answered yours at the same time. I don't see how this is insufficient to absolve me. Are you thinking I was just really lucky or what?

(Sorry for EBWOP x4 or whatever. I will stop now.)

[elvis_knits]

Iecerint, I can confirm that my PM notification of RB was about 9-10 minutes before you posted your alert. I was toying with the idea that a scum could have asked the mod if players are notified of RB's, and that he answered you at the same time. Overall though, I think it does support that you received a PM similar to mine and were also RBed. My reasoning below:

I've been thinking this thorugh trying to see how things would have gone down if you're scum, and I've decided it doesn't make a lot of sense.

I keep getting stuck on wondering why a scumIecerint would claim to have investigated Spyrex, after Percy had claimed to have busdriven Spyrex and me. I mean, he's putting himself in a hornets nest of complications (Look at the 5-step process for explaining how his night actions went down and how he figured everything out).

Seriously, why would he claim his second investigation was spyrex, bus driven to me, but oh yeah, blocked. And a second block in one night.

Everyone had claimed before him (except macavity), so he could have totally made up a second night result. He knew everyone's nouns already. He could have claimed a guilty on someone. He could have easily avoided all this crap.

If he's scum, claiming to be a part of the screwy busdriven/blocked/Nked actions last night is literally the most complicated route he could have gone. I would have stayed the hells away from it if I was scum.

I'm thinking it is more likely that Percy is the scum trying to discredit the cop. Things are SO much less complicated that way. Every scenario where Iecerint is scum is very complicated and relies on a number of odd and complicated choices made by Iecerint.

[elvis_knits]

I feel like the more I talk here, the more I confuse myself :/

I'm feeling overwhelmed.

ML, help me. I don't think you're scum.

[MacavityLock]

I really need to hear from Percy before going much further. I'm overwhelmed myself, which is why I'm going so slow with this.

[elvis_knits]

Claims:

elvis - Mega Man - Vig
SC - Kevlar - BP
Budja - Ten-Pin Bowling Ball - VT
Percy - Mostly Empty Bottle of Jack Daniels - 2-shot Bus Driver
Iecerint - Randall Kennedy, author of the 2003 book [removed]: The Strange Career of a Troubling Word - cop
ML - Picasso's Guernica - VT

[MacavityLock]

2 important things to note that may not have been brought up yet:
1) Now that elvis has claimed that she was RBed last night, we don't know whether or not SC is actually bulletproof.
2) If Percy is lying about his busdrive ability, his opposite scum faction is aware that he is lying. (If Percy is lying, then both factions targeted SpyreX with their respective kills last night.)

[elvis_knits]

Complete speculation:

SC is the SK who lied about his rolename and role.

Percy and Budja are the mafia who told the truth about their rolenames but not their roles. Percy is the RB, alcohol sounds like a RB. Budja made the kill last night. Ten-pin bowling ball? Kill flavor was "head dented in."

[elvis_knits]

2) If Percy is lying about his busdrive ability, his opposite scum faction is aware that he is lying. (If Percy is lying, then both factions targeted SpyreX with their respective kills last night.)

Which may account for SC being gung-ho for killing Percy ASAP.

[elvis_knits]

SC should really just claim SK and tell us who he targetted last night. That could confirm Percy scum.

[Iecerint]

I hadn't noticed Budja's kill flavor. That's a good find. That would seem to imply that Percy is the roleblocker and Budja is NonRBscum. On the other hand, Candlestick From Clue appeared to kill SF by "filling him full of holes" N1 (confirmed), which doesn't seem to match the flavor in an obvious way.

There was another weird thing I thought of about the set-up while I was out, but it's totally slipped my mind. I'll try to remember it soon.

[elvis_knits]

I thought there are some kinds of candlesticks (maybe old-fashioned) where they have a sharp thing like a nail that sticks up, into the candle to hold it in place. Did I dream this or has anyone else heard of it?

[Budja]

If I were mafia in that situation, I would fakeclaim [/WIFOM]

New thought. I suspect SC might not be the serial killer. If SC was the SK, mafia would not block EK. (unless the SK has a RB ability instead of BP (unlikely))
So a Percy/SC scumteam with Iec as the SK.
Thats the only reasonable way I can put it together.

It doesn't really matter though, Percy is still the best lynch.

[Iecerint]

Elvis was on the fence between targeting SC and targeting Percy IIRC. Also, I can't be the SK unless I am nouncopSK.

I think we're in good shape. Worst case scenario is that Budja and Percy swapped claims to prepare for this, but there's no way to predict that.

[StrangerCoug]

My "can use more than one shot in a night" power is quite neat, and note that I included this detail

before

Iec claimed. I think the cleanest explanation for two roleblocks is that there weren't, and that Iec has claimed that he was RBed to throw doubt on my claim.

That's a funny wording you chose to use. The "cleanest" explanation? Why not the explanation that makes the most sense to you? Yeah, I think Iecerint's claim is coming out of scum too, but this is lame bussing.

Finally, I wouldn't put it past the mod to include a 1-shot roleblock on the SK role, given your weakness, elvis. I think blocking SpyreX and killing you would make a great deal of sense to the SK - they wouldn't have blocked you as you were going after scumSC, but they'd have been happy to have you dead when you were done.

The vig is weak, so the SK gets powered up to compensate? What the hell are you smoking?

(It's maybe worth noting that, if I were scumNameCop, I could only be scum with the superRBer. I could not be scum with motivator+RBer unless I were like scumNCRBer or something totally absurd like that. This is irrelevant as I am obviously not scumNC, but I figure it's an extra piece of information for you to mess with.)

This points to Iec scum quite definitively in my mind. If Iecerint is the scumNameCop, there probably

isn't

a superRBer. He knows this, and yet is continuing to talk about the existence of a superRB even though (at this point) the existence of such a role hinges

entirely

on Iec's claim of being RBed last night.

At least one of you, most likely both, is scum.

Note also that SC is willing to jump on me right now, and we're nowhere near done (imo). Yet another reason to believe SC scum.

You're screwed, Percy. I said I'd vote when everyone's ready. Not everybody is ready, and I don't want a repeat of the end of Day 2, so I'm hanging on to my vote. You cannot damn me if I do and damn me if I don't.

SC should really just claim SK and tell us who he targetted last night. That could confirm Percy scum.

I am not the SK and I targeted nobody last night. That is regardless of the other two alignments I could be.