Mini 878: Nouns Mafia - Da game is ovah!

[MacavityLock]

It's important to note that I'm not just a namecop. I'm vanilla-cop+flavorcop. I receive 2 independent pieces of information about a player I investigate.

What do you mean when you say vanilla-cop?

[Iecerint]

I target a player and learn their alignment. For example, I targeted you and got "Town."

[Iecerint]

What, you thought I was basing my Town read on you on a notion that "Picasso's Guernica" is rather nice-looking? <_<

[MacavityLock]

No. When I said "vanilla-cop", I meant that you were a cop who found out whether or not your target was vanilla. What you're saying is that you're also just a regular alignment-cop. It's two different things.

[elvis_knits]

And namecop is usually a scum role. And think of how drake set the game up. He gave a townie the noun of stethoscope. Which might have caused the scum to think NEto was the doc, which he wasn't!

My thoughts exactly. If he was just name-cop, the risk he was taking was calling me town, but it's not like I'm going to turn that down, no matter what.

I was thinking he could be a scum namecop, who investigated you and found out you are "Picasso Guernica."

I am unsure how I feel about this "supercop" role. In a way it fits since I am supervig, but then again, how many super roles can there be in one game?

Percy as 2 shots of whiskey as multi-RB is plausible. His caveat of "use multiple in one night" works really nicely given both RBs, assuming Iec & elvis both town.

I think scum tend to be truthful about as much as possible, sort of like mixing truth in with the lies. So Percy saying his 2-shot ability could be used both in one night makes me think a RB could be used 2 in one night, and that maybe he told the truth about everything except that he's a scum RBer and not a town busdriver.

If PErcy's not a busdriver, that means that both scum targetted spyrex (think he was the other party), which is a coincidence, or that spyrex became a lightning rod.

Map is still in progress.

[Iecerint]

I see. I interpreted your use of words incorrectly. I meant that I was "typicalCop+flavorcop." I don't receive any information at all about a player's abilities. That's why I allowed that you could be a hypothetical pro-town arsonist after I claimed.

ML is town unless he is GFscum. Remote.
EK is town unless there are 2 killing 3rd parties or the arsonist is town. Remote.

Which leaves the others as scum of some sort.

EK, could you ask the Mod how his ruleset processes night actions? Specifically, what's the order of processing redirects, roleblocks, and NKs? I'm assuming it's redirect -> roleblock -> NK, but I'm not certain. Assuming that I'm correct, we might be OK even if we mistakenly lynch SK today.

[MacavityLock]

elvis, how exactly does your redirect work? Is it a bus-drive, or something slightly different?

[elvis_knits]

My redirect works like this:

I choose a player and direct that player's nightchoice to whoever I want.

SO I am really picking two people. One person to direct their action, and the player I want the action to go toward.

[elvis_knits]

ML is town unless he is GFscum. Remote.

Well, he could be GF or maybe even SK (technically) and you'd still get that result, right?

Why is this possibility remote to you?

[elvis_knits]

I compiled a lot of VC's from D1 starting on page 6. The only ones that are missing after that are if there was no movement in votes.

I could just kick myself for how many times we had 3-4 towns voting boxman and didn't manage to lynch him. Just goes to show you that BWCS is great unless your other choice is lynching scum.

I am still looking at that final VC, and am still slightly uncomfortable with accepting that the entire Netowagon could have been town (except boxman). Circumstances of BWCS could have made that happen, I guess. It still bothers me though because the ones left, ML and Iecerint were pushing Neto all day. Neither ever voted Boxman. I don't think both could be scum, but possibly one. Of the two, I'd lean Iecerint because a namecop is sort of a scummy ability.

SC did vote boxman early, and I think that suggests he is not a boxman buddy. But since his overall play is scummy, I think he has a very good chance of being the SK.

Percy is a worry to me too though because I don't like a bus driver in a game with a redirector.

Vote Count Sex

Netopalis

: 3 (

SensFan

, Iecerint,

Boxman

)

Boxman

: 3 (

mathcam, Seol

, StrangerCoug)

Sens Fan

: 3 (Konowa,

elvis_knits, Netopalis

)

Not Voting: (MacavityLock,

Parhelic

, Percy)

Vote Count 7

Netopalis

: 4 (Konowa,

SensFan

, Iecerint,

Boxman

)

Boxman

: 4 (

elvis_knits, mathcam, Seol

, StrangerCoug)

Sens Fan

: 1 (

Netopalis

)

Not Voting: (MacavityLock,

Parhelic

, Percy)

Vote Count Eight

Netopalis

: 4 (Konowa,

SensFan

, Iecerint,

Boxman

)

Boxman

: 3 (

elvis_knits, Seol

, StrangerCoug)

Sens Fan

: 2 (

mathcam, Netopalis

)

Not Voting: (MacavityLock,

Parhelic

, Percy)

Vote Count 11 (Two hours too late for 11/11)

Netopalis:

4 (Konowa,

SensFan

, Iecerint,

Boxman

)

Boxman

: 4 (

mathcam

,

elvis_knits, Seol,

StrangerCoug)

Sens Fan

: 1 (

Netopalis

)

Not Voting: (MacavityLock,

Parhelic

, Percy)

Vote Count Tweleven

Boxman

: 5 (Konowa,

Netopalis, mathcam, elvis_knits, Seol

)

Netopalis

: 4 (StrangerCoug,

SensFan

, Iecerint,

Boxman

)

Not Voting: (

big_kahunia

, MacavityLock, Percy)

Vote Count 12

Boxman

: 5 (Konowa,

Netopalis, mathcam, elvis_knits, Seol)

Netopalis

: 4 (StrangerCoug,

SensFan

, Iecerint,

Boxman

)

Not Voting: (

big_kahunia

, MacavityLock, Percy)

Vote Count One-Three

Netopalis

: 5 (MacavityLock, StrangerCoug,

SensFan

, Iecerint,

Boxman

)

Boxman

: 5 (Konowa,

Netopalis, mathcam, elvis_knits, Seol)

Iecerint: 1 (Percy)

Not Voting: (

big_kahunia

)

Vote Count Quatorze

Boxman:

6 (StrangerCoug, Konowa,

Netopalis, mathcam, elvis_knits, Seol)

Netopalis:

4 (MacavityLock,

SensFan

, Iecerint,

Boxman

)
Iecerint: 1 (Percy)

Not Voting: (

big_kahunia

)

Final Vote Count: Day 1

Netopalis:

7 (

mathcam, elvis_knits, Seol,

MacavityLock,

SensFan

, Iecerint,

Boxman

)

Boxman

: 3 (StrangerCoug, Konowa,

Netopalis

)
Iecerint: 1 (Percy)

Not Voting: (

big_kahunia

)

[elvis_knits]

I need Percy to convince me that having a redirector and a bus driver in the same game is possible/likely.

I need Iecerint to explain how we had two roleblocks in 1 night. (I've speculated some but I want to hear what he thinks).

[Iecerint]

My result on ML was "Town." It was not "Innocent" or "Not mafia." Therefore, assuming that my ability works properly, I think ML is only non-town if he is GFscum. This is remote because the probability that I targeted GFscum N1 is very low. It is much more likely that I targeted town.

I've already indicated that the 2 roleblocks are probably from someone with an X-shot (i.e. 2-shot, 3-shot, 4-shot) roleblock. (I believe I simulposted this with SC.) For example, maybe Percy is a 2-shot RB rather than a 2-shot busdriver. I think you independently came to the same conclusion. Your scum motivator option is also a possibility, but that wasn't what came to me at first. Either explanation could be consistent with BM being used for the kill N1.

(It's maybe worth noting that, if I were scumNameCop, I could only be scum with the superRBer. I could not be scum with motivator+RBer unless I were like scumNCRBer or something totally absurd like that. This is irrelevant as I am obviously not scumNC, but I figure it's an extra piece of information for you to mess with.)

Let me explain in more detail why I want you to ask the Mod about order of ability resolution.

The best case scenario is that we lynch the scum roleblocker today. That way, you can redirect SCSK to the other scum with little problem (unless the SK decides to neglect participating, but I imagine he'll still participate because there may possibly be 2 RBers, etc.).

If we lynch non-RBscum scum, RBscum can roleblock you and kill whomever (assuming he's allowed to do both), and then town will decide whether to give the game to the SK or the scum. Lynching the SK first is similarly non-ideal, because scum can roleblock and kill you N3 to force a scum victory.

However, the lynchSK scenarios are no longer a near-automatic town loss if redirects beat roleblocks:

RBscum roleblocks EK.
Non-RBscum kills EK.
EK redirects RBscum -> Non-RBscum

If I'm correct that redirection occurs before roleblocks, this would make N3 deathless and we'd still have a shot. It would hinge on you using your redirection properly, though.

[elvis_knits]

Okay, I asked the mod what is the resolution order for night actions. And more specifically, which will resolve first, a RB or a redirect.

[DraketheFake]

I've been resolving night actions using Natural Action Resolution, which I'll add to the rules pages.

[Iecerint]

lol @ "bus" being just barely OK and "redirect" being just barely too late. <_<

Please correct me if someone thinks I'm reading it wrong.

Well, that means we have to lynch the roleblocker. I think Percy is a good guess for the reasons elvis pointed out. Does anyone else have any strong feelings about who it is?

[StrangerCoug]

Percy is my candidate for Mafia roleblocker also. Ready to vote when everyone else is.

[MacavityLock]

As Iec has cleared me, I can only be scum if he is scum.

If both Iec and elvis are telling the truth about being RBed last night, it definitely implicates Percy, as Percy was aware of action-doubling before the 2nd "I was RBed" claim came out. It's not definite, but highly likely that he modified his ability just a little bit. I would also like to hear his explanation of how we have busdrivers and redirectors in the same game.

Iec, given that you had breadcrumbed my noun pretty substantially in Day 2, it's even stranger that you wanted me to claim first. A possible order of events: I claim. You claim with my noun, thus confirming both my alignment and your noun-copping ability (as you could point out your breadcrumbs and how they confirmed or countered my claim). Instead, you chose to let me off the hook: By going first, you made me aware that I couldn't fake-claim a noun.

[Iecerint]

As I've stated, you could be mafia GF without me. But that is probably remote enough to ignore. I won't be too upset with myself if I lose due to an unlucky target choice N1.

Yeah, you're right. I made a mistake. I should have insisted on going last. I think it's still a mistake regardless of my alignment, though.

I'm not sure why people are asking Percy to explain the presence of RD+BD in this game. It's not as if townPercy is uniquely equipped to explain the situation, and scumPercy is just going to make something up.

[MacavityLock]

As I've stated, you could be mafia GF without me. But that is probably remote enough to ignore. I won't be too upset with myself if I lose due to an unlucky target choice N1.

Yup, you're right. My bad.

[MacavityLock]

Percy & Budja, did you read my post 797 at the beginning of the day?

[elvis_knits]

Please, no voting yet. It seems like you guys are ready to vote, but I am not. and I think we have more to discuss. Specifically, WTF I am supposed to do with my redirect!

So the order of actions says block goes before redirect. So unless we lynch the blocker, we are toast, correct?

Percy does make the most sense as the RBer since he mentioned the 2-shot thing about his role, and being able to do two in one night. (I do think that it is often easier to fake claim if you keep as much the same as possible, so this could be what happened with Percy). Also, just flavor-wise, I think alcohol is much more likely to be a RBer than a busdriver. I mean, alcohol can knock you out and prevent you from doing your job. Alcohol and busdriving? Drunk driving is bad, kids! (Not that we should rely on flavor, but this doesn't make sense to me).

So if we think the other scum are SC as SK, and Konowa/Budja, then I guess I redirect SC to Budja tonight? Because if SC is NK immune, directing Budja to SC will do nothing.

One tidbit that is sort of WIFOM... Budja read Day1 and skimmed Day2 overnight. When I replace into games I wait to see if I die overnight before reading. Unless, for example, I was a scum who didn't fear being targetted because I knew the vig was being blocked and the SK would be pointed at the vig. Is this fair, or is this too WIFOM?

But, if Percy is scumRB, and he didn't switch me and spyrex, then that means that either both scum decided to kill spyrex (coincidence), or spyrex became a lightning rod (which, is just speculation).

[MacavityLock]

I am also not ready to vote.

I do have some ideas of how to do the redirect, but I want to wait until Percy and Bud answer my 894.

[Iecerint]

Here is my hypothesis:

Scum all killed SX hoping to take out the other team.
Percy capitalized on this and tried to take credit for it while keeping close to his RB claim.

We lynch scumRBPercy.
Redirect SCSK -> Budjaextrascum
Budja kills ML/elvis/me (probably elvis, but it's irrelevant)
Survivors lynch SC ftw

This method only works if PercyRBscum AND SCSK AND SCSK targets someone tomorrow. Otherwise, town will lose. I think this is still the only method that could work. (As a consolation prize, we'll get to choose which team wins tomorrow if we mess up. I think this is pretty much true regardless of how we mess up.)

I think SCSK will choose to kill tomorrow if he is rational. There may, after all, be 2 scum RBers, in which case town is 100% screwed and SCSK can win only if he makes a kill tonight. Maybe we can plan to give the scum the game if SCSK doesn't cooperate. That would incentivize his participation.

[Percy]

@elvis: Your observation about "Stethoscope" being a VT role is spot on, and I think it's even more likely that the namecop is a scum role.

My "can use more than one shot in a night" power is quite neat, and note that I included this detail

before

Iec claimed. I think the cleanest explanation for two roleblocks is that there weren't, and that Iec has claimed that he was RBed to throw doubt on my claim.

I choose a player and direct that player's nightchoice to whoever I want.

If this ability resolves before mine, then I can see this working. Let's say scum gets person A to target person B with their ability, and I swap B and C. The action would end up targetting person C. I, as uninformed town, wouldn't know that anything involving a redirector had happened, just that someone had targetted person B. The scum, however, would know something was wrong.

I don't think I'm going to be able to give you a good reason why there's a bus driver in this game; there is one because I am one. However, I think that having a supervig, (sane! super!)cop, doc and bomb all in one game is horrifically unbalanced.

Finally, I wouldn't put it past the mod to include a 1-shot roleblock on the SK role, given your weakness, elvis. I think blocking SpyreX and killing you would make a great deal of sense to the SK - they wouldn't have blocked you as you were going after scumSC, but they'd have been happy to have you dead when you were done.

(It's maybe worth noting that, if I were scumNameCop, I could only be scum with the superRBer. I could not be scum with motivator+RBer unless I were like scumNCRBer or something totally absurd like that. This is irrelevant as I am obviously not scumNC, but I figure it's an extra piece of information for you to mess with.)

This points to Iec scum quite definitively in my mind. If Iecerint is the scumNameCop, there probably

isn't

a superRBer. He knows this, and yet is continuing to talk about the existence of a superRB even though (at this point) the existence of such a role hinges

entirely

on Iec's claim of being RBed last night.

Note also that SC is willing to jump on me right now, and we're nowhere near done (imo). Yet another reason to believe SC scum.

Iec, given that you had breadcrumbed my noun pretty substantially in Day 2, it's even stranger that you wanted me to claim first.

QFT.

I think it's still a mistake regardless of my alignment, though.

Why, because you're getting heat for it now? You're getting heat because it's scummy. Don't put the cart before the horse.

@MacavityLock: I did read your 797. My first reaction is that the "faction without SC" would have little motivation to

block

elvis. Also, both killing factions targeted elvis last night, not SpyreX, and your 797 seems to be trying to explain why the scum might target SpyreX.

(I do think that it is often easier to fake claim if you keep as much the same as possible, so this could be what happened with Percy).

Sure. I really tried responding to this whole claim thing without sounding completely WIFOM, but I couldn't find a way. I'm going to have to appeal to game balance and leave it at that.

I'll do some investigation into an organisation of our actions which is independent of believing claims/hypotheses. If it can't be done, then I suggest we go back to scumhunting the old fashioned way. Iecerint's plan, for example, is highly dependent on his own reasoning, and so (in my mind) is completely useless and probably an attempt to obscure scum powers.

I'll give the same warning I gave to SpyreX before - town can seriously fuck themselves at this point, and we need to both (1) proceed with caution and (2) not forget about our scumreads that have nothing to do with attempts to break the setup.

I'll post again soon.

[Iecerint]

I claimed a RB PM before elvis claimed a RB PM IIRC. It is unlikely that I fakeclaimed it to discredit you.

It's a mistake rather than scummy because the error doesn't help me as either scum or town AFAIK. I can understand someone seeing it as a mistake that scum would be more likely to make due to a desire to confirm themselves, though. Still, it's not as if the breadcrumbs wouldn't have existed if I had gone last.

Need to go eat. Will add more in a bit.