This improves our chances, but it still doesn't win us the game. Things would turn out like this:Peabody wrote:What if we clear Milkshake along with the person the mafia attacked last night? We already know Milkshake is cleared as confirmed townie:
Player 1 -
Player 2 -
Player 3 -
Player 4 - CLEARED (Being milkshake of course)
Player 5 - CLEARED
Player 6 - Doctor
I like this if the doctor is going to be lynched, but not if it's just the person they protected. That just gives us the scenario I outlined above which, as I explained, isn't all that awesome. I think we're better off hoping for another save than we are giving ourselves that little extra percentage. This is my personal feeling, though, not science, and it's largely based off the fact that, of all the 3-4 player lylo's I've seen, the majority have been won by mafia.A better idea to toy with is we organise a lynch as normal, but when we decide who that is, if the doctor has protected that person, or that person is the doctor they should claim. If nobody claims we assume whoever is being lynched isn't confirmed, but we still protect the identity of the doctor. Thoughts?
Very good idea. This should protect the identity of the doc.Hoopla wrote:A better idea to toy with is we organise a lynch as normal, but when we decide who that is, if the doctor has protected that person, or that person is the doctor they should claim. If nobody claims we assume whoever is being lynched isn't confirmed, but we still protect the identity of the doctor. Thoughts?
I just like Messiah and Peabody.
I think we're capable of talking out who we'd most like to see lynched. If we need a more organized system, we can always use FoS's and try to keep an FoS count ourselves.Milkshake wrote:So if that's the case, how are we going to procede with organizing a lynch as normal.
Alternate account fail.5cvm wrote:Doc might even be able to clear a couple people maybe. (Possible, although unlikely... but in that scenario we would have the mafia identified 100%). Important note though, if we're going to "organize a lynch as normal," don't get it up to L-1, because mafia could profit from a wayward hammer, I believe?
So if that's the case, how are we going to procede with organizing a lynch as normal.
I really like my opinion that Messiah and Peabody are scum. Unfortunately with so little hard information at my disposal (lots of soft information) Hooplah, charlatan, AGM could all be scum concievably.
Well, duh.I think we're capable of talking out who we'd most like to see lynched.
Ya sorry. ><Alternate account fail.
Like you said, almost definitely not since they haven't claimed yet.Remember that the doc has saved twice now, so there's a chance they have two confirmed, but probably not.
Actually, nevermind because if that was the case we would know who the mafia was and it would be game over.AlmasterGM wrote:True, it could also be a roleblocker, in which case there would be zero additional information.milkshake wrote:Also it is concievable that there's something other than a plain doctor going on.
Hm, this would make alot of sense for you to say this if you are scum with peabody.AlmasterGM/Peabody - On first thought this seems like the least likely of the three, mainly because Almaster has been calling Peabody scum for the entirety of the game. However, I certainly won't rule out distancing, especially in light of the fact that Almaster never really put any kind of pressure on Peabody at all.
Peabody/charlatan - I can't think of anything that makes this one particularly more or less likely than the other two, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me.
charlatan/AlmasterGM - This is my current pick for most likely remaining scum. For one, AlmasterGM is almost certainly the scummiest living player. Aside from that, though, is that this scum team would explain the one thing that stands out to me the most about charlatan's play this game, which is the way he switched wagons from Almaster to CooLDoG.
Messiah wrote: At this point I'm going to remove all the possibilites involving Hoopla, the one person I have a solid town read on. My town read on her is mainly gut, but I place a lot of faith in my gut town reads.
That's two players who have decided that the other is town and removing them from the endgame equation, neither of whom has expressed interest in explaining their reads to the town, though making a strong case for an unconfirmed player as town would certainly help us out. I've even asked Hoopla explicitly to share details:Hoopla wrote:I have a strong town read on Messiah I have no desire to articulate too heavily on.
Fun fact: Request was denied.Charlatan wrote:And perhaps now is a good time for you to share why Messiah is town? I know you didn't want to tell us before, but it's important for me to develop my read on you.
What about "the way" in which I switched stands out to you? Did my interaction with CooLDoG seem contrived or false in some way? Did you not believe my reasoning for abandoning the Almaster wagon?Messiah wrote:Aside from that, though, is that this scum team would explain the one thing that stands out to me the most about charlatan's play this game, which is the way he switched wagons from Almaster to CooLDoG.
The reason you gave for unvoting Almaster, which I believe came down to him finally contributing in a pro-town way. Unless the purpose of your vote was to get him to start contributing(I don't believe it was, correct me if I'm wrong), suddenly turning your play around by contributing and acting pro-town when put under pressure shouldn't be a town tell at all, as I believe you yourself have said on multiple occasions.charlatan wrote:What about "the way" in which I switched stands out to you?
This is not exactly accurate. I did not remove my vote as a function of him suddenly doing something worthwhile. I'm sure you've noticed by now that my general modus operandi is that when I want a better feel on a player I kick up some dust with them and examine their reactions. Ultimately, Almaster's reactions pushed me away from wanting to see him swing, at least over CooLDoG, and his reaction when he was in immediate danger of being lynched sealed the deal for me. I wanted to see him under pressure, and when I had, I no longer had a reason to be pushing that bandwagon. Ironic that you do not see the merit in gaining town reads this way.Messiah wrote:The reason you gave for unvoting Almaster, which I believe came down to him finally contributing in a pro-town way. Unless the purpose of your vote was to get him to start contributing(I don't believe it was, correct me if I'm wrong), suddenly turning your play around by contributing and acting pro-town when put under pressure shouldn't be a town tell at all, as I believe you yourself have said on multiple occasions.charlatan wrote:What about "the way" in which I switched stands out to you?
Is it? Because I don't recall saying anything about the way you go about getting better reads. Regardless..charlatan wrote:Ironic that you do not see the merit in gaining town reads this way.
This is what you said when unvoting Almaster:charlatan wrote:This is not exactly accurate. I did not remove my vote as a function of him suddenly doing something worthwhile.
charlatan wrote:I certainly meant the accusations I leveled against him, butsomething about his responses has pushed him closer to my good graces again.When accepting the likelihood of a lynch, he got his opinions out there and left some parting words for the town to digest the next day, which is certainly pro-town. I'm still going to watch him, but for now I'm going to unvote.
Care to expound on that at all?charlatan wrote:Ultimately, Almaster's reactions pushed me away from wanting to see him swing, at least over CooLDoG
Mmm valid point, I can understand why this looks odd, but my town read isn't as strong as before now due to Looker's town flip. You'll remember some of reasoning was based believing both scum didn't bus.charlatan wrote: That's two players who have decided that the other is town and removing them from the endgame equation, neither of whom has expressed interest in explaining their reads to the town, though making a strong case for an unconfirmed player as town would certainly help us out. I've even asked Hoopla explicitly to share details.
Messiah is left as the only one alive off the hiphop wagon, however I'm starting to believe the scumteam cannot be without charlatan somewhere. Peabody doesn't seem like a clever option due to hiphop's vote being on him (and it not coming at a time to believe it to be distancing).Hoopla wrote:(7):hiphop, Peabody, Hoopla,Sposh, charlatan,CooLDoG, AlmasterGMmilkshake
AlmasterGM (2):, MessiahLooker
Peabody (1):hiphop
Not Voting (2):,CocoEmpking
I say it's ironic for two reasons. Firstly, that I've done this to you and did not get a town vibe. Secondly, that you're comfortable quantifying your own town reads without even attempting to explain them beyond "gut feeling" this late in the game.Messiah wrote:Is it? Because I don't recall saying anything about the way you go about getting better reads. Regardless..charlatan wrote:Ironic that you do not see the merit in gaining town reads this way.
Again, which part confuses you? His reactions to his bandwagon made me feel he was more likely to be town than before the bandwagon. Meanwhile, as the Almaster bandwagon evolved, CooLDoG caught my eye increasingly more.Messiah wrote:Care to expound on that at all?charlatan wrote:Ultimately, Almaster's reactions pushed me away from wanting to see him swing, at least over CooLDoG
I suppose it's easy to abandon a position when you refused to give reasoning for it in the first place.Hoopla wrote:Mmm valid point, I can understand why this looks odd, but my town read isn't as strong as before now due to Looker's town flip. You'll remember some of reasoning was based believing both scum didn't bus.