California Trilogy: City of Angels - On Camera (Game Over)


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Post Post #1275 (ISO) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 3:31 pm

Post by Mr. Grey »

Vote Count:
4 to lynch.

Not Voting: 7 (hewitt, Mighty Orbots, StarKiss, Talilan, Thesp, VP Baltar, zu_Faul)

Current Condorcet Winner:
None. Current Smith Set: hewitt, Mighty Orbots, StarKiss, Talilan, Thesp, VP Baltar, zu_Faul, No Lynch

To view the complete table of pairwise results, put the following information into this form.

1,hewitt
2,Mighty Orbots
3,StarKiss
4,Talilan
5,Thesp
6,VP Baltar
7,zu_Faul
8,No Lynch

1:2=3=4=5=6=7=8>1
1:1=3=4=5=6=7=8>2
1:1=2=4=5=6=7=8>3
1:1=2=3=5=6=7=8>4
1:3>1=2=7>4=6>8>5
1:1=2=3=4=5=7=8>6
1:1=2=3=4=5=6=8>7
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Post Post #1276 (ISO) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 5:46 pm

Post by hewitt »

Mighty Orbots wrote:I have a long-standing case on hewitt. He refused to vote KY Krew even though he said he would, instead staying on Panzer. Later, after calling for Pooky's lynch time and again, he softened his tone (from "scum" to "wildcard") and when presented the opportunity to wagon Pooky instead hammered Gaspar. His only interaction with GaB was to answer questions and act irritated. And I invite you all to find him mention Thok anywhere.
What. Are. You. Smoking. First off, great misrepresentation of my conduct regarding the KY lynch. Go reread that day and then come back and restate my actions that day. That was fucking despicable MO. In regards to Pooky I made it quite clear that I wanted Pooky lynched for quite a while. But nobody seemed to think that was a good idea and I was pretty much largely ignored for a Gaspar lynch. I didn't like Gaspar and I was quite okay with his lynch so I hammered. I disliked Goofballs play a lot and I'm pretty sure I called him out quite a bit. I have no thoughts on Thok, he's like the most anonymous player in this game to me.

Great, great misrepresenting there.
Talilan wrote:Also, if we were scum we would have fired CKD way, way sooner. There were plenty of reasons we could've given for doing so, and no-one would've thought anything of it
List those reasons.
Talilan wrote:I was also trying to figure out the likelihood of SL being made the advocate. I thought the scum might do this so he couldn't stunt someone offstage to be lynched. If SL was made advocate and bumped onstage, Hewitt would have been left offstage.

There were a lot off possibilities to think about
It really should not have been that complicated. Your "overthinking" is crap and a great way to talk yourself out of looking like scum. Definitely. Not. Working. And I'm sick of the WIFOM in all your posts regarding why it doesn't make sense that you'd be scum with the others. OF COURSE YOU WOULD SAY THAT IF YOU ARE SCUM.
Thesp wrote:Somewhat - curiouskarmadog claimed to get advocate information with plenty of detailed information as to what might have happened if one choice was made over the other (not just which choice is good, but specifically the consequences of such an action). Panzerjager claimed to have
no
information as to the consequences of the choice, only that he should drive. This struck me as incredibly odd and unlikely - on a binary choice, it seemed as though they would be told what the best course of action would be, it's the detailing of the consequences in one PM and not the other that puzzled me. At the time, it seemed to me that curiouskarmadog was telling the truth, and that Panzerjager was scum, and that Panzerjager was surprised that ckd came forth as he did rather than try to join the scum, and was a bit flabbergasted when asked his role information. When the whole "everyone thinks Panzerjager/zu_Faul is the AP and won't touch him with a 10-foot pole" bit went down, I started to re-evaluate this, and pondered that ckd might be the odd man out on this (I think another player has mentioned the same - hewitt?). When all the info roles ended up on screen in one day, I started thinking it was the work of an evil director, and it led me to the ckd-lynch-push.
I 100% agree with this logic and I think it would be silly for anybody to overlook the fact that this was strange as hell.
Mighty Orbots wrote:Before we do anything else, hewitt do you counter?
Clearly, no.
VP Baltar wrote:before we do anything else, hewitt are you playing this game?
Still in the game.
Mighty Orbots wrote:There was nothing obvtown about Panzer or zu_Faul. We still need to know if hewitt will counter. This is extremely important.
I agree that there definitely was NOT anything obv-town about Panzer AT ALL especially considering the first scene antics.
Mighty Orbots wrote:Add lurking to the hewitt case.
Incorrect kid. Lurking would include me actually reading the game while it happened. Haven't even been on the site in days.
VP Baltar wrote:Hewitt's vote on Panzer is very interesting because KY Krew does not even appear in his Condorcet AT ALL, and yet after KY flips scum hewitt says "I obviously agree with the KY Krew lynch so yeah that was good." (iso 14).
Again with this not reading my posts thing. Kind of tired of it.

And if VP is scum I think we're all fucked.

Vote: Talilan
StarKiss, Mighty Orbots, Thesp, VP Baltar, zu_Faul, No Lynch, hewitt
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RECORD

Town-Win- 2
Town-NightKilled-Loss- 3
Town-Loss- 4
Mafia-Win- 1
Mafia-Loss- 3

Team Win Percentage- 23.08%
Basically...my teams usually lose. How fun is that!
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Post Post #1277 (ISO) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 6:33 pm

Post by Thesp »

VP Baltar wrote:@Thesp-can you quantify why you are so assured of Talilan's towniness? What do you think of his decisions this game (particularly Scene 7)?
Part of it's a best guess, some of it is their thought process in claiming what Grey told them (or didn't tell them) regarding the endgame. I feel like they're actually trying to do the best they can with what they have, and I get the feeling that they don't have the whole picture and they're trying to piece it together. They come across as genuine (even if one half is occasionally aggravating, I think their effort is townlike). I think they're less likely to be scum than some others. I've pondered a lot about their offstage decision on the last day, and while it's a touch suspicious in the results it achieved, I have a hard time killing them for it, at least in part for the fact that it's possible (if they and Orbots are town) that they're picking from seven players, 4 of whom would be scum.
Mighty Orbots wrote:@Thesp: Opinions on things that didn't happen Scene 1 plz?
Anything in particular that strikes your fancy? My opinions are based more than on Scene 1, but I thought that was worth exploring.


Let me give you the rundown in the notes I'm showing by player (re: onstage decisions, Scenes 5-7 are excluded for their utter uselessness, probably could have excluded Scene 1 as well):

Talilan

Scene 1: Wiggin (Good choice, onstage)
Scene 2: Door 1 (Good choice, onstage)
Scene 3: Bizarre - I have a hard time following, though did have post that helped push to Crone onstage (uncertain, offstage)
Scene 4: Not Push (Good choice, onstage)

Mighty Orbots

Scene 1: no choice reflected (no indication, offstage)
Scene 2: Door 1 (Good choice, onstage)
Scene 3: neutral (no indication, offstage)
Scene 4: Push (Bad choice, onstage)

Starkiss

Scene 1: Wiggin (Good choice, onstage)
Scene 2: neutral (no indication, offstage)
Scene 3: Crone (Bad choice, onstage)
Scene 4: Push (Bad choice, onstage)

Panzerjager/zu_Faul

Scene 1: Wiggin (Good choice, onstage)
Scene 2: neutral (no indication, offstage)
Scene 3: Mother suggested offstage (nonBad choice, offstage)
Scene 4: Push (Bad choice, onstage)

Hewitt

Scene 1: No vote (no indication, onstage)
Scene 2: Neutral (no indication, offstage)
Scene 3: Crone (Bad choice, onstage)
Scene 4: Neutral (no indication, offstage)

VP Baltar

Scene 1: Wiggin (Good choice, onstage)
Scene 2: leaned towards switching to Door #2 (leaned to Bad choice, offstage)
Scene 3: Crone (Bad choice, onstage)
Scene 4: neutral (no indication, offstage)

Thesp

Scene 1: No vote (indicated Good choice, onstage)
Scene 2: neutral (no indication, offstage)
Scene 3: suggested Crone might be best, but asserted Mother was the pick to make (Nonbad choice indicated, offstage)
Scene 4: neutral (no indication, offstage)


I really, really wish I could table-ize and/or color-ize this. It looks much prettier that way.

As an FYI - my birthday is next Friday, and the party is next Saturday. I probably will not be useful around the deadline, which I hope we won't be running into.

Also, I'm not liking hewitt's last post.

Vote: StarKiss
, [Mighty Orbots, hewitt, zu_Faul], [Talilan, VP Baltar], No Lynch, [Thesp]
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Post Post #1278 (ISO) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 7:04 pm

Post by Talilan »

OK, I don't really want to leave the game at this point. I was having a bad day at work and feeling overwhelmed. Sorry for the emotional blackmail VP... let's just agree to disagree.

Friday night here, TGIF. I'll be back when I'm not tired and prone to over-reactions.

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Post Post #1279 (ISO) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 7:08 pm

Post by hewitt »

Thesp wrote:Also, I'm not liking hewitt's last post.
It'd be great if you could actually expand on something for once and provide some real detailed opinions.
Show
RECORD

Town-Win- 2
Town-NightKilled-Loss- 3
Town-Loss- 4
Mafia-Win- 1
Mafia-Loss- 3

Team Win Percentage- 23.08%
Basically...my teams usually lose. How fun is that!
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Post Post #1280 (ISO) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:00 pm

Post by Talilan »

The problem with our hydra account is we've both been enthusiastically involved in the game-mostly at the same time, and have played pretty much an equal role in it. Yet we haven't gone to great lengths to reach consensus before posting (I think that would have been impossible considering our level of activity in the game). I wasn't actively playing in the game very much from the Gaspar lynch to the present, so I don't have much insight into some of the decisions that were made. I can understand why the choices were made for last scene though- because SL had the stuntman ability etc. I wouldn't have suspected DGB and Thok were together personally- myself I had (regrettably) just started to waver on Thok and was in fact finding DGB more scummy (whereas previously I had been assured of Thok's scumminess and found DGB pro-town). I still would have found it hard to envision them being scum together unless I were explicitly asked to consider the possibility, when I don't know what I would have said.

I will just make some more points as they come to me.

I read mith's invitational game, in which VP Baltar was scum; a few weeks ago. I felt that, once the flips were known, he had fairly obviously defended most of his scumbuddies quite specifically and systematically. He got lynched in 3-player end-game when the two townies realised the same thing. I believe that game took place concurrently with this game. I don't think he played anything like the way he did this game, and it would be too difficult for him to change as scum (and it would rely on him totally changing his approach to scum, if he were indeed scum this game). I also recall finding him pro-town for various reasons throughout the game. For this reason I am pretty much as sure of his townety as that of zu_Faul. The fact he went with the votecount analysis is yet another point in his favour, because votecount analysis of this sort would be precisely the thing that would have shown his scumminess in the invitational IIRC.

I think I said this is in my last post, but I still lean towards Thesp-StarKiss scum. I think that vote is a bus. Will say more if I come up with anything else.

Thesp, pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease explain to my why the uncounterclaimed AP is not last in your condorcet.

tbh hewitt's vote on us makes me feel alright about him when I consider it. If he were scum, he must know that we're innocent (woot, subjective tell), and if we got lynched (which doesn't look particularly unlikely with the wave of public opinion) then he'd be a likely second lynch. I do badly need to re-read him for fear of the "too scummy to be scum" fallacy, but I do distinctly recall something DGB said earlier in the game, something like

"I'm pretty sure hewitt isn't scum, because if he were scum then the scum would be telling him to stop acting so scummy in their QT". I'm preeettty sure this makes hewitt a bit less likely to be scum. I don't think I see DGB jeopardising her scumbuddy and herself like that, she's not that sort of player. But I could be wrong. She is anti-busing after all. Does need a re-read.

Tbh my suspicions of Mighty Orbots were partly based on the way he arbitrarily seemed to turn on us at some point in the game. We also speculated recently that it would be more difficult to be scum if one were in a hydra, which might have been the reason troll left. PZ, can you explain to us exactly why Zorblag left your hydra? See the thing that struck me in my early game partial re-read was that Zorblag was doing a pretty good job looking pro-town, helping with directions for the stagemen and all, but it was in a way that wouldn't hurt the scum at all- it was just ensuring things were properly organised. The problem is that at this point in the game there wasn't much to go on, so doing that sort of thing might be perfectly justified. I do also recall reading a post of his where he listed scum suspects (I'm pretty sure it was Troll) in pretty much perfect order based on who the town found scummy at the time. It was a perfectly logical list, almost too logical. It seemed to contain no quirks or counter-intuitive insight. Then again, I'm not that familiar with how Troll plays so this may just be the way Troll analyses, with nothing insidious about it.

I'm still wary to let StarKiss' "slip" go like we kind of did with Thok. I also think Thesp is being too clever by half by voting his scumbuddy right now. I would expect those sorts of shenanigans from smug scum in end-game.

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Post Post #1281 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 3:38 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Does anyone have any thoughts why the scum would not kill the obv-AP Zu Faul? It really bugs the hell out of me and I cannot figure out why they would not do it.

Which scene was it that it became obvious because of the stuntman thing, scene 5? And they decided to kill sottyrulz in Scene 6 instead of confirmed town zu faul. IDK, I guess sotty was pretty much town, but why give a CONFIRMED town for endgame.

Ugh, I think I am over thinking this.

I think now that I have put forth the vote counts, we should be able to look at every single player's decisions over the course of the game. Thesp has already touched on this, but I think at least one of the scums (Starkiss) is going to have a horrendous voting record.
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Post Post #1282 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:24 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

hewitt wrote:First off, great misrepresentation of my conduct regarding the KY lynch. Go reread that day and then come back and restate my actions that day. That was fucking despicable MO.
No. Here is what you said.
hewitt Iso 10 wrote:I'm going to pretend like Goofballs post also applies to me considering I didn't vote KY Krew either and it looks like a cross post. The answer for me would be that I'm going to nail them once they get Off-Camera but for now I'd like to focus some discussion on those currently Off-Camera. Because God knows we're going to get quite a lot of discussion about KY Krew once they get Off-Camera.
Here you say you're going to "nail" them when they get off-camera. By "nail" I'm assuming you mean wagon.
hewitt iso 13 wrote:FML

Vote: Panzerjager, [Gaspar, Talilan], TheBladeMufasa, StarKiss, [Bagel Eating Cowfrog, GoofballsAndBaloons, Thesp], sottyrulez, No Lynch, hewitt
And here you vote for Panzer. (Panzer is bolded but I can't bold it because of house rules)

Then you disappear. Talilan stunts with KY Krew. Several people vote him, he's lynched. As VP said:
VP Baltar wrote:
hewitt wrote:And I obviously agree with the KY Krew lynch so yeah that was good.
Good thing you parked your vote on Panzer and were away for the main event then.
... which I agree with wholeheartedly. So no, sorry, no misrep here.
hewitt wrote:In regards to Pooky I made it quite clear that I wanted Pooky lynched for quite a while. But nobody seemed to think that was a good idea and I was pretty much largely ignored for a Gaspar lynch. I didn't like Gaspar and I was quite okay with his lynch so I hammered.
Yes indeed, you repeated multiple times that you wanted Pooky dead. Can you link me to where you posted a case and actually pushed for his lynch?
hewitt wrote:I disliked Goofballs play a lot and I'm pretty sure I called him out quite a bit.
Yes, your pattern for Pooky holds true here as well. Except you never voted GnB.
hewitt wrote:I have no thoughts on Thok, he's like the most anonymous player in this game to me.
So you agree with my statement then.
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Post Post #1283 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:36 am

Post by Thesp »

Talilan wrote:Thesp, pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease explain to my why the uncounterclaimed AP is not last in your condorcet.
Hurr, I just copied/pasted my last vote and made it an actual vote without changing anything. Fixed below.
Talilan wrote:tbh hewitt's vote on us makes me feel alright about him when I consider it. If he were scum, he must know that we're innocent (woot, subjective tell), and if we got lynched (which doesn't look particularly unlikely with the wave of public opinion) then he'd be a likely second lynch.
I'm not sure how you're discerning this or concluding this. Wha? I'm not seeing any way that him pushing a lynch on you then causes or correlates with a subsequent lynch on hewitt. (In fact, I think any hewitt lynch would be entirely independent of his stance on you.)
VP Baltar wrote:Does anyone have any thoughts why the scum would not kill the obv-AP Zu Faul? It really bugs the hell out of me and I cannot figure out why they would not do it.
My suspicion is that if they killed him, then a new one would be assigned (whether they feared this or knew this). I bet that they didn't want someone different being thought of as confirmed town, and they'd just hunt the other trusted people in the town. I'm not sure how useful this guess is, though.
(This is somewhat related to a gambit I was going to suggest at some point in time, whereby we out the AP and he makes all the onstage decisions. It turned out to be less useful in some instances, and even if we could get over the fear of outing the AP, it was somewhat difficult to coordinate with the small time between scenes.)

Fixed vote:

Vote: StarKiss
, [Mighty Orbots, hewitt], [Talilan, VP Baltar], No Lynch, [Thesp, zu_Faul]
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Post Post #1284 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:43 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

Talilan wrote:1. It is not irrelevant. Organised quick-lynches involve both luck and organisation. There was no guarantee going into that scene that SL would be lynched. I betcha he would've stunted if he had time after seeing the first vote. If his stunt request PM was timestamped before Thok's vote, he woulda been safe and two scum would've been exposed.
I thought the KY Krew business Scene 1 pretty much established that scum can daytalk.
Talilan wrote:2. A) You're kidding right? NO-ONE is as good as a non-counter-claimed AP. B) There was some suspicion of him. Most notably Gaspar.
Close enough. And Gaspar was dead, so.
Talilan wrote:We were less trusted than DGB on-stage IIRC, and she would additionally look good the way she'd attacked Thok throughout the game and was turning on us at the time we did it.
You've said this a couple times. What support do you have?
Talilan wrote:Why the hell would scum sacrifice two of themselves for the end-game, and additionally have the scum in the AP role look really bad?
There were 4 alive in Scene 7, that is now obvious. They can only take 2 into endgame. They know that a townie lynch wins them their best endgame. So their choice is to either play standard mafia and hope for a townie lynch, or arrange one.

Regarding making your role look bad? There's a risk/reward to every decision. I'm guessing they decided that achieving the best end-game scenario for themselves was the most important thing.
Talilan wrote:This is besides the fact I think it's downright dumb to suggest we are likely to be scum with Thok- we were on his case throughout the game,
So was DGB.
Talilan wrote:And contrary to what PZ says, the point about looking at the "totality of the game" is very, very valid.
This, actually, I misunderstood. I thought you were saying not to look at the last couple scenes, since until then your record was spotless.
Talilan wrote:What would people have objected to, at the time, about leaving DGB/Thok/Shadowlurker off-stage?
Here's where I'm really lost now.
Talilan wrote:oh and zu_Faul was obv the AP.
So why wouldn't you have left him offstage to lynch your scum candidate? If zu_Faul was "obv the AP" that means zu_Faul is guaranteed town.
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Post Post #1285 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:51 am

Post by Mighty Orbots »

Thesp wrote:Anything in particular that strikes your fancy? My opinions are based more than on Scene 1, but I thought that was worth exploring.
You're voting Starkiss. Post a case. Show me why Starkiss is worse than me and hewitt. Show me why hewitt and I are worse than Talilan and VP Baltar.
Thesp wrote:Let me give you the rundown in the notes I'm showing by player (re: onstage decisions, Scenes 5-7 are excluded for their utter uselessness, probably could have excluded Scene 1 as well):
Argh. All info, no analysis. Why is scene 6 utterly useless? How did you interpret these things?
VP Baltar wrote:Does anyone have any thoughts why the scum would not kill the obv-AP Zu Faul? It really bugs the hell out of me and I cannot figure out why they would not do it.
I have no idea.
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Post Post #1286 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 6:50 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Starkiss

Scene 1: On-Stage-Good Decision (Follow Valentine)
Scene 2: Off-Stage-No Decision
Scene 3: On-Stage-Bad Decision (Pick Crone)
Scene 4: On-Stage-Bad Decision (Push the button)
Scene 5: Off-Stage-Bad Decision (Lynch Gaspar)
Scene 6: Off-Stage-Bad Decision (Lynch curiouskarmadog)
Scene 7: N/A

Thoughts: Starkiss has done nothing right all game other than follow Valentine in the first scene, and I can see a lonely scum (all of the confirmeds were off-stage) doing that to fit in. While I recognize that the town has not made a lot of good choices as a whole during this game, Starkiss has essentially done nothing to benefit the town during their entire presence in the game (which has largely been selective). This is why I want Starkiss dead.

hewitt

Scene 1: On-Stage-No Decision (Follow Wiggin)
Scene 2: Off-Stage-Bad Decision (Lynch Panzer)
Scene 3: On-Stage-Bad Decision (Vote Crone)
Scene 4: Off-Stage-Bad Decision (Lynch MafiaJin)
Scene 5: Off-Stage-Bad Decision (Lynch Gaspar)
Scene 6: On-Stage-Bad Decision (Pick 41)
Scene 7: N/A

Thoughts: Yeah, so hewitt is even worse than Starkiss...I don't know why I get more of a townish feeling from him. Hewitt might actually be the better lynch choice today. It should also be noted that in the first scene, hewitt was the one who wanted to drive with Locke for quite awhile despite the advocate information pointing him in the opposite direction

Talilan

Scene 1: On-Stage-Good Decision (Follow Valentine)
Scene 2: On-Stage-Good Decision (Door 1)
Scene 3: Off-Stage-Bad Decision (Lynch Elmosaurian)
Scene 4: On-Stage-Good Decision (Don't Push the Button)
Scene 5: Off-Stage-Bad Decision (Lynch Gaspar)
Scene 6: On-Stage-Bad Decision (Pick 41)
Scene 7: N/A

Thoughts: Talilan has a pretty good voting record overall for the game. I don't like how much noise they created in the game and their choices as director are questionable, but if I am to believe they are scum, then I must believe that they were intentionally trying to make their voting record look decent. This is fitting with the general cloud of ambiguous suspicion I have had of Talilan on and off this game. I just cannot get a solid read I believe in here.

Thesp

Scene 1: On-Stage-No Decision
Scene 2: Off-Stage-Good Decision (Lynch KY Krew)
Scene 3: Off-Stage-Good Decision (Lynch Panzer)
Scene 4: Off-Stage-No Decision
Scene 5: On-Stage-Neutral Decision (Drink Tequila)
Scene 6: Off-Stage-Bad Decision (Lynch curiouskarmadog)
Scene 7: N/A

Thoughts: Overall his decisions have been pretty good, but a bit safe. I think what I said about Talilan above applies here, but to a lesser degree. I personally consider the Tequila in scene 5 to be a good decision, as it was the best option available...but I also believe that was a town heavy scene as evidenced by Thok's non-presence. Either way, I'm not all that interested in lynching Thesp today...maybe later.

Mighty Orbots

Scene 1: Off-Stage-Bad Decision (Lynch zwetschenwasser)
Scene 2: On-Stage-Good Decision (Door 1)
Scene 3: Off-Stage-Bad Decision (Lynch Elmosaurian)
Scene 4: On-Stage-Bad Decision (Push the Button)
Scene 5: On-Stage-Neutral Decision (Drink Tequila)
Scene 6: On-Stage-Bad Decision (Pick 41)
Scene 7: N/A

Thoughts: While the bads outweigh the goods for MO, I didn't ever really feel like he was being manipulative or dishonest in his approach to the game. I vaguely remember a time when I felt he could have been scum, but if one looks at scenes 5 and 6 he back-to-back proved his honesty (advocate information and checking hewitt). Now, that doesn't rule out the possibility that he and hewitt were scum together, but that's not something I'm worrying about at this moment.

VP Baltar

Scene 1: On-Stage-Good Decision (Follow Valentine)
Scene 2: Off-Stage-Good Decision (Lynch KY Krew)
Scene 3: On-Stage-Bad Decision (Pick Crone)
Scene 4: Off-Stage-Bad Decision (Lynch MafiaJin)
Scene 5: On-Stage-Neutral Decision (Drink Tequila)
Scene 6: On-Stage-Bad Decision (Pick 41)
Scene 7: N/A

Thoughts: Not great, not terrible play given the circumstances I guess. I'm open to answering questions about any of my decisions people would like to know about.

zu faul

If we are considering him confirmed town, then I'm not going to bother with his choices.



Conclusion: I've changed my mind. Hewitt is the superiour lynch based upon voting record.
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Post Post #1287 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 6:52 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Vote: hewitt, Starkiss, Thesp, Talilan, Mighty Orbots, No Lynch, [VP Baltar, zu_faul]
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Post Post #1288 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 7:02 am

Post by hewitt »

So basically you're saying the players who made the "better" decisions are the ones who are town? That's a surefire way to screw us over and lose the game. Hope that works out great for you.
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Town-Win- 2
Town-NightKilled-Loss- 3
Town-Loss- 4
Mafia-Win- 1
Mafia-Loss- 3

Team Win Percentage- 23.08%
Basically...my teams usually lose. How fun is that!
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Post Post #1289 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 7:20 am

Post by VP Baltar »

lol, yeah we should definitely ignore all voting records since you hurt the town in EVERY scene you were in and have done nothing to help the town win.

My biggest regret is talking myself out of lynching you when I had the chance. Live and learn I suppose.

Since you're around hewitt, how do you suggest the town approaches finding the scum? Do you think decisions in scenes should matter? If not, what criteria can one go by to find scum?
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Post Post #1290 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 7:56 am

Post by StarKiss »

Your list argument would be somewhat better if you also posted the decisions of confirmed town/scum. The fact Zu is basically confirmed means we should check his choices too, see what proven innocent can look like.

Same for using the corpse. Yes, I know it's a lot of work, but if it can iincrease the strength of the point I say it's well worth a shot.

~Dram~
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Don't forget Dram :(
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Post Post #1291 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 7:59 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Making nothing but bad decisions is not likely to come from town. I will flat out say that right now. If you'd like to do additional research to prove me wrong, be my guest.

That being said, you also have to make sure that a player's presence in the game was of a long enough duration to be comparable (ie, you can't take a player who was lynched in scene 3 and compare it to someone who was in all seven scenes).
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Post Post #1292 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 8:01 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Also, the decisions of confirmed towns and scums are all right there in the original lists I posted. I just didn't compile then together. IIRC, DGB had a voting record similar (or better) than yours Starkiss and Hewitt. She at least bussed KY Krew.

Thoughts?
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Post Post #1293 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 8:48 am

Post by hewitt »

VP Baltar wrote:Since you're around hewitt, how do you suggest the town approaches finding the scum? Do you think decisions in scenes should matter? If not, what criteria can one go by to find scum?
The problem with the decisions in the scenes is that clearly the scum are not going to make a negative impact on the game every chance they get because they know that other players are going to make mistakes. No matter who the scum is, they're going to manipulative that and use that to their advantage. It's almost the most unreliable resource we have in this game because the scum most likely voted for the good outcome knowing that it'll make them look good.
VP Baltar wrote:Also, the decisions of confirmed towns and scums are all right there in the original lists I posted. I just didn't compile then together. IIRC, DGB had a voting record similar (or better) than yours Starkiss and Hewitt. She at least bussed KY Krew.
You're halfway proving my point. As an uninformed player it's much more difficult for non-scum to be making the correct decisions. All the scum players have really had to do this game is non-vehemently disagree with the bad decisions being made and they look good out of it. The scum knocked off Goofballs and Thok meaning that the most pro-town scum are in this Endgame. Look at their records, they're not half-bad. Most likely, the scum remaining have even better records than they did.
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Town-Win- 2
Town-NightKilled-Loss- 3
Town-Loss- 4
Mafia-Win- 1
Mafia-Loss- 3

Team Win Percentage- 23.08%
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Post Post #1294 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 10:58 am

Post by Talilan »

Why didn't the scum kill zu_Faul? They may have wanted to claim his role in endgame. To do this they had to leave him alive (and unclaimed), but not pick him for endgame.

~Tal
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Post Post #1295 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:00 pm

Post by zu_Faul »

I feel totally clueless and like I never played Mafia before :/

If you jsut go by the numbers, Starkiss and hewitt should be scum. But I'd feel so dumb if scum gets an easy win just by playing a townish game. And I got a townish feel out of hewitt from previous experiences. With Talilian it is just the opposite. Bad feeling, but she has a good record.
Talilan wrote:
zu_Faul wrote:Ahh, Talilan uses the "scum never make mistakes" defence.
Please clarify what you mean. This isn't the "scum never make slips" defence, it's the "scum would know not to make themselves look scummy" defence, and it's also the "well, it would have been easier just to sacrifice ourselves last scene". I wasn't paying that much attention to the game at the time but no-one suspected DGB and Thok were scum together AFAIK.
The thing is, the scum don't play a perfect game, just like town.


Ok, question time for everyone:

hewitt, why did you make so many abysmal choices?

Talilan, why did you lean in the direction of the crone in that scene?

Thesp, what was your stance on Gaspar?

Mighty Orbots, again the question, why did you just reask hewitt's question than validating number 41?

VP Baltar, why did you suggest Mighty Orbots do so?

StarKiss, give us a good reason not to lynch you (hint: tell us about someone else who is scummier).
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Post Post #1296 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:03 pm

Post by zu_Faul »

Talilan wrote:
zu_Faul wrote:
Talilan wrote: Obviously the scum knew for sure what would happen if they got us down to 5 innocents in the last scene. Otherwise they would not have lynched SL so blatantly.
Eh, we did know as well, it was going to be the worst setup possible... and as scum could not all migrate into this phase there was no risk for them lynching blatantly anyway...
Just how did you know? Ortolan actually asked about it quite early in the game and got no answer. In the rules it is not clear, IMO, that the final lynch of the final scene would count as 'triggering endgame early' and I'm actually a little annoyed that scum apparently had that information but town didn't.
It was in the rules all the time I was here...
There was definitely a downside to them lynching blatantly... because they sacrificed and exposed G&B & Thok, they did not have any choice about which two would go forward to endgame. And we effectively get two scum flips... something we've been desperately needing.

~Tal
We would have gotten those two scum flips anyway. What you are saying makes no sense at all. Yeah, they could not choose which two should go, any maybe Thok was a sacrifice, but GAB was not. But they knew we were getting the worst setup. That must have been wort the risk.
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Post Post #1297 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:13 pm

Post by Talilan »

zu_Faul, HOW would we have gotten those scumflips? Where in the rules does it say that we find out the alignment of the players who don't go to endgame???
I have read the rules several times and as far as I am aware we were never going to be told the alignments of players not chosen for endgame and I have been playing all along as though this were the case.

And where in the rules does it say that the last lynch of last scene would be considered 'early'??

What freaking rules are you reading?

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Post Post #1298 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:19 pm

Post by Talilan »

zu_Faul (1296) wrote:It was in the rules all the time I was here...
What I asked was what happens (wrt endgame) if the innocents reach 5 at the end of scene 7, Mr. Grey said he couldn't answer.

I asked this perhaps quite a few scenes ago. I wasn't really thinking at the time that lynches will inevitably resolve before the on-screen choice (because they have to, otherwise there will be no lynch). The only way the question could have been relevant, I realise, is if the scum had nightkills to use at the end of scene 7. It was also possible that mith designed the game so that even if the number of innocents reached 5 during scene 7, it wouldn't have mattered, because it was the last scene. So he would have allowed us to vote on-stage anyway. It depends if you interpret the "minimum of 5" thing as simply being there for functional reasons i.e. the game won't function any more if further town players get killed after that therefore one needs it as a limit; or if it is set more as a goal for the scum to achieve and for town to avoid. So I still think it could have been interpreted either way, and mith did refuse to answer our question.

There have been other things the scum knew about the setup which the town didn't e.g. that the scum-chosen advocate doesn't need to be drawn from the director's picks (at least I'm pretty sure this was the case?)

I have also remembered Thesp suggesting a no lynch for scene 7 (in retrospect this was very correct advice- even if we hadn't had two scum off-stage; if we'd had one town and one scum or two town who voted for a third town-aligned player; this still would have sealed us into worst end-game). Not to tunnel on Thespy, but this demonstrates an extraordinary level of insight both compared to other players in the game, and compared to how I thought he was keeping up with the game at the time. Bear in mind that the scum would have been discussing in their qt at the time the potential for getting two scum off-stage and sealing the endgame, which may have been where he got it from.

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Post Post #1299 (ISO) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:21 pm

Post by Talilan »

zu_Faul wrote:Talilan, why did you lean in the direction of the crone in that scene?
I personally didn't. After thinking about the info, I wanted maiden and I posted an argument backstage for maiden, and I asked people whether they agreed and whether we should send a sign indicating maiden.

There wasn't support backstage. One of the MO hydra thought there was a problem with what I had worked out. I remember Thesp specifically did not want to send a sign indicating anything as he though the onstage people should play it out. Ortolan did his own figuring out and came up with crone... that was when the onstage accident happened. I'll let him explain why he thought crone.

~Tal

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