Newbie 871 - Game Over Town Win

[boberz]

Anything to be read into darths replacement? i have at least one thing i dont want to share.

Why would you want to withhold information from town? That seems a scummy move to me but then actually saying you are doing it lowers its scumminess a bit.

There is a genuine reason, I would have mentioned it other than a couple of posts made by someone else, I do not want to.

[boberz]

last point: Neither do I btw Patrick, I made that clear in a post to ether on the same subject. This is the second or third time I raise a concern, it gets questioned answered debated, I let it go and then someone else has jumped on it. That will be in the post I plan to make after I have done the laundrette.

I forgot to deal with this.

When I questioned herds random vote, I dismissed it then annachie mentioned it a fair bit later and apparently is still chatting about it. What to make of it i dont know.

The example in the above quote and I was sure there was another example searching my posts in isolation to find it...

i must be inventing it. When all the deadlines go ill be watching for it again like a hawk

[Incognito]

Oh how rude of me. I didn't say hi to RayFrost when he was announced as the replacement (hi, Ray. Are you scum?). I guess I was half-expecting him to join at some point anyway.

@Annachie:

Yeah, herd also had an L-2 wagon but so did ksen if I'm not mistaken (Ether, Patrick, and boberz were all voting him at the same time at one point).

As far as extending your question, again, I think it would depend on ksen's or herd's alignment. I wouldn't put too much stock in it because of that.

-~-~

With regard to the withholding information stuff, I don't find that scummy at all. I can think of very good reasons for town to want to withhold information until a later time -- I'm not sure if that's what boberz is planning on doing, but it could be.

With regard to the stuff boberz pointed out, I, too, seem to recall situations where people have seemed to hang on the coattails of an argument after the argument was dealt with and resolved. I thought herd had done something like that once before and Darth may have done that before also, but I'm just recalling from memory so I might be wrong about this.

[Annachie]

Eventually found it. It was there for 6 posts.

Ok, lets make this more general then, with 9 players in the game, and 3 voteing on one person, What chance do people think that there is at least one scum in on the vote.
The raw probability is the same as any three players being scum, 58%, but this isn't probabliity, this is game play/psychology.

[ksen]

Eventually found it. It was there for 6 posts.

Ok, lets make this more general then, with 9 players in the game, and 3 voteing on one person, What chance do people think that there is at least one scum in on the vote.
The raw probability is the same as any three players being scum, 58%, but this isn't probabliity, this is game play/psychology.

Isn't third on a bandwagon considered a scum tell?

[RayFrost]

Oh how rude of me. I didn't say hi to RayFrost when he was announced as the replacement (hi, Ray. Are you scum?). I guess I was half-expecting him to join at some point anyway.

Of course I was gonna join! I mean, how could I

not

join? (sorry incog, we can't be scum buddies this time around maybe next time?).

Anyway, I'm not feeling like reading thoroughly right now, but I'll do a skim read and get some basic feelings out for you lot.

It'll probably be in sLoS (short List of Suspicions) form.

It might include some awesome lil characters.

It'll definitely have incog as neutral or scum. unless it doesn't.

[boberz]

Eventually found it. It was there for 6 posts.

Ok, lets make this more general then, with 9 players in the game, and 3 voteing on one person, What chance do people think that there is at least one scum in on the vote.
The raw probability is the same as any three players being scum, 58%, but this isn't probabliity, this is game play/psychology.

Isn't third on a bandwagon considered a scum tell?

Sort of but not really. Basically whoever hammers gets suspicion, whoever puts to l1 is suspicious. But because scum so often avoid doing these votes that means the l2 vote gets suspicion. Once lots of people think l2 is scumm then they would avoid that. I think people put too much on these things. Obviously it needs to be questioned but not a proper tell in my eyes.

[boberz]

Sorry for multiple posts today, Annachie did you honestly not notice the fact that ksen was on L-2 as I did it I announced that was what I was doing. Can I be rude and ask you to read more carefully in future.

[Incognito]

Isn't third on a bandwagon considered a scum tell?

The short answer: The Wiki is to be used as a guide but it's certainly not a reference book that can be applied to all situations.

The long, more descriptive answer: Being third on a bandwagon is an old-school, jeep-made scum-tell. jeep is one of the people who helps run this site and back in the day when he was very involved with playing, he put together this list of "tells" that he would use to find scum. The problem with listing tells is that as soon as you list something as a tell, the scum will simply avoid doing that thing that you've listed as a tell and it has a tendency to become invalid. Plus, there's always a chance that town will do a listed tell anyway, so the tell isn't something that's etched in stone -- tells just give you a certain probability that a given player who's done an action X is likely scum or town.

Ok, lets make this more general then, with 9 players in the game, and 3 voteing on one person, What chance do people think that there is at least one scum in on the vote.

I'm going to purposely avoid doing this exercise because...

Annachie, do you think factoring things in like:
1) whether or not the person being voted is town
2) the game's state
3) something else that I can't think of at the moment
might affect this probability?

-~-~

starkmoon needs to pay more attention to her game.

[Annachie]

Incog. Hence me saying that my question was more about game play and psychology than pure probability. Actually, your answer to Ksen was a pretty good answer for my question too. Thanks.

Oh, yes. I was especially curious about the Darth vote because it happened after he asked to be replaced. Post 211 answered that though, though voting like that seems to be a scummy thing to do.
If the situation was reversed, that it was me placing that thrid vote after Darth had asked to be replaced and not you, would you consider it a scummy move?

Boberz. It's not rude. Then again, even you said you thought it was, it never made an official count, Incog also thought it had happened and therefor wasn't certain, and again Incog had missed the one on Herd.
I'm not too worried that I missed it, but I should pay more attention.

[starkmoon]

Mod, what about Yarmond?

I forgot to triple check *blush* had it in my mind that since RayFrost would be playing in both my games he couldn't replace Yarmond.
Will post again asking for a replacement for Yarmond.

[starkmoon]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 5

Annachie

- 1 - herd456 - (L-4)

RayFrost

- 2 - Ether, ksen, Incognito - (L-2)

herd456

- 1 - Patrick - (L-4)

ksen

- 1 - boberz - (L-4)

Yarmond

- 1 - DarthRandall1138 - (L-4)

Players not voting: Annachie, Yarmond

[RayFrost]

I'm gonna blatantly procrastinate here. I'll put this off for after I finish this form thingy for another site.

Hopefully, I won't forget this promise.

No promises.

[starkmoon]

Tyrope replaces Yarmond.

[Tyrope]

Greetings, I'm replacing "Yarmond" and this is my first game, good luck to all.

btw, i'm currently catching up with all the reading, currently starting at page 3 (out of 10)

[Annachie]

'Ello Tyrope.

Have fun

[Tyrope]

edit above: done reading, i have no suspicions of any1 yet, maybe i'm just too trusting. when i get home i'll try to read between the lines and do a psych evaluation of all of you by the posts you made.

[boberz]

Did you get any reads at aall Tyrone, in 10 pages someone must stick out as more safe, or more scum. What about ksen or herd for example.

[ksen]

Welcome to the game RayFrost and Tyrope!

[Tyrope]

i was just skimming the topic, boberz, not really looking at the authors, now i am going to re-read this and write stuff down...

[Incognito]

Hi Tyrope. Thanks for replacing.

Oh, yes. I was especially curious about the Darth vote because it happened after he asked to be replaced. Post 211 answered that though, though voting like that seems to be a scummy thing to do.
If the situation was reversed, that it was me placing that thrid vote after Darth had asked to be replaced and not you, would you consider it a scummy move?

Well, you've mentioned a few times that DarthRandall's behavior reminds you very closely of the behavior you saw from him in your previous game together. So if you placed a vote on him after he just finished replacing, I'd probably ask you about it, but I don't know if I'd necessarily consider it scummy -- it would probably depend on your explanation and reason for doing so.

I'm developing the impression that you consider third votes placed on a wagon to be "scummy". Is this the case? If so, why do you consider it scummy?

[Tyrope]

OK, so I've started up a notepad, which is basicly a breakdown of the first 10 pages with global information, i'll upload it to an FTP of mine and attach it at the end so the post won't be that long...

after reading my notes i'm going to give my thoughts: (1 = deffo scum, 3 = neutral, 5 = Towny for sure)
Annachie: have nearly no notes on you, so you're neutral so far, I'll need some real-time stuff to get a better read. (3)
boberz: you seem to be very pro-town acting, hence i consider you as one. (more than 4, but not yet 5)
Ether: 4, but without solid reasoning.. i guess it's a gut feeling? I'll prolly come back to this like i will with Anna. (4)
herd: been silent lately, but don't like the fact he put the way he (and I quote)extremely doubts that any pair of Ether/Patrick/Incognito is scum[/quote]... it sounds a little bit too much as if he's 100% certain. (2)
Incog: seems to get alot of pro-town vibes from the majority of the players, so I'll tag along: (more than 4, but not yet 5)
ksen: neutral one... when I think I have you aligned, you go the other way, my read is confusing at best, I shall need real-time stuff to deal with your read (3)
Patrick: 3 aswell, just don't have a solid read.
Rayfrost: those few posts didn't help me much. (3)
Tyrope: Not a clue, he didn't post much... (that's a joke, btw.)

[Tyrope]

whoops, forgot to vote and put the file online, so i'll just ctrl+c ctrl+v it here.

Vote: herd

Annachie: 3
thinks a no-lynch is preferable to a random lynch.

boberz: 4.5
Doesn't like random votes.
voted INCOGNITO seemingly as revenge, with solid reasons based on theories with no proof.
had reasoning for the "No-lynch theory".
Is towny according to Patrick
Scummy according to ksen

Ether (SE): 4, gut
believes either Patrick or Incognito are scum, but NOT together.
not sure about above not being scum together.
Is towny according to Incognito
Is towny according to Patrick+

herd456: 2
fond of random voting
extremely doubts that any pair of Ether/Patrick/Incognito is scum

Incognito (IC): 4.5
didn't explain why not-lynching could be beneficial, perhaps hoping town doesn't know it?
scratch above, wasn't risking self-confusion.
raises pro-town alliance on Patrick, Ether and himself.
Is towny according to Ether +
Is towny according to Patrick

ksen: 3
"town should never not lynch"
sees logic in "No-lynch theories", but doesn't think it's worth the risk.
Neutral read from Incognito.

Patrick (SE): 3
has reasoning for "No-lynch theory"
thinks lurking is more tactical for scum than town.

RayFrost: 3

[Annachie]

Thanks for that.

Not conciously Incog.
That particular one yes, but I'm comming to the conclusion that a replacement should have a chance to stand or fall on their own, at least for a few pages, and your vote seems to be too much pressure to allow that.

[Tyrope]

ofc this is not like my solid theory, but most of the time (even with "moles" in the group) majority is mostly right, maybe I miss-wrote it though, I'm getting the same vibes too.