Open 175 - Picking Simplicity (Game Over)

[SpyreX]

Huzzah for wall of posts.

Modus Tollens doesn't work well in mafia, especially at this point, for a reason that I thought I made clear: implication

is not

causality.

Thus, the statement "If WarWound is mafia, Iguana is mafia" can work because there is the implication that their alignments are tied. HOWEVER, this does NOT mean that if one is town the other is - or any other metric of measure. Its not a damn truth table and don't paint it as such (especially when the logical jumps are faulty as well).

So, keep screaming basic logic to the rafters it does not alter the basic premise that logic is operating on causality (hence the IFF) which is not the case.

----

First, you agree with my statement that DGB is a good scumhunter. Then, you state that you have no issues with Zwet's play. Finally, you are stating that I shouldn't be comparing DGB to Zwet.

I'm trying to figure out how what you were saying is at all relevant to my argument that Zwet isn't useless, but I don't see the relevance at all. What were you trying to say here? Or were you simply arguing for the sake of arguing?

Woosh.

First off I was disagreeing with your implication that DGB doesn't "make sense". DGB makes perfect sense if you look at the methods behind what she does.

This was brought up because, in contrast, Zwet slides towards the useless far more often. Now, like I said, I don't have a problem with his play like many do "OMG POLICY LYNCH" style but, again, that comparison is apples and oranges.

[Col.Cathart]

Finally some free time. I'm doing re-read right now. Post should be done in a while.

[Col.Cathart]

Ok, re-read done.

First of all, may I ask those people who were all for Hyl/Yankee/Saberwolf lynch before Michel's case came in, what's the reasoning behind it? It looks like I missed something, as I don't see anything lynch-worthy in any of their behaviors.

Secondly, what happened to Skitzer case made by Iguana at the beginning of the day? I actually liked that case, as Skitzer was giving me unexplained gut-scum feelings. It died under all those posts lately, and I feel, it should be brought back to attention.

Thirdly, I think that Yabba/Michel/Spyrex discussion reached the point, where everyone has a solid, unchangeable point on any of discussed case. And so, I think, anyone should conclude his standpoint, and quit it, since I don't really see any way to squeeze something more from it.

That said, I don't agree with both cases on Michel and Yabba. I have town reads on both of them so far. This looks like to me like a typical, mildly aggressive discussion between two misguided townies. Usually in that kind of situations, scum just sits back, smiles, and sometimes adds some small question/points to keep the forest burning. Just like Nikanor with his question to Michel in post 799. That kind of questions will only make this (IMO pointless already) discussion even longer. I don't like it.

FoS: Nikanor

In other news: I still have some iffy vibes on StrangerCoug. Mostly because:

a) I still find it unusual, that he isn't mentioning Blast's hop on 12KB wagon, even in his expanded stance, after I pointed it out. If you already call 2 people out for doing the same thing, then I don't see any logical reason, why this argument is not mentioned against someone who is 'neutral' in your books. For the future note, I think if either Blast/his replacement or Stranger (with Serial Clergyman on the board, I cannot use SC anymore ) will flip scum, the other one has a good chance of being one as well

b) You replaced Zazier. I was (and still am) playing with him in another game (and you should know well which one, as you're modding it ). He promised us some major revelations about this game, but then disappeared. He also did it in that other game, so I thought 'he's inactive. Fine.' But then, he started posting back in other game, but not here. I don't like it, and Zaz earned some scummy points with that action, and they came on your account, when you replaced him.

FoS: StrangerCoug

Despite all of this, my vote stays on Pom, unless Hohum will return from his forced V/LA and change my point of view with better play. Her play on D1 is still something, no one else is even close to match in terms of scuminess.

[StrangerCoug]

One, ZazieR is female. Two, don't discuss ongoings.

[Iguana]

Secondly, what happened to Skitzer case made by Iguana at the beginning of the day? I actually liked that case, as Skitzer was giving me unexplained gut-scum feelings. It died under all those posts lately, and I feel, it should be brought back to attention.

I would be happy to lynch him still, but that wagon didnt seem to go anywhere.

[Iguana]

One, ZazieR is female. Two, don't discuss ongoings.

Three... zazie I lean town

[Col.Cathart]

One, ZazieR is female. Two, don't discuss ongoings.

1)Noted

2)Not ongoing anymore

[StrangerCoug]

2)Not ongoing anymore

Since your modkill just ended that game, but meh. No hard feelings.

[Nikanor]

Just like Nikanor with his question to Michel in post 799. That kind of questions will only make this (IMO pointless already) discussion even longer. I don't like it.

Michel is trying to clear WarWound (now SC). I'm trying to find out why.
Also, I'm getting a scum read on yabba. I'm not going to quit attacking him simply because you have a town read on him. Your defense of yabba is noted.

Also, Zazie is male.

[Kreriov]

ZazieR recently change gender icons to male you should say


I am still rereading, so at the risk of violating one of CC's recently stated means of find scum (that scum will interject comments into a 'discussion' to fan the flames), I want to make sure I am clear on two things. First, I am not sure why Michel says if WW is mafia, Iguana must be mafia as well. (Please to not start talking about logic rules, it is pointless and, as SpyreX pointed out, are not always directly applicable here.) Maybe as I finish reading through I will find it, but I need to know why Michel BELIEVES that this is true. (And maybe instead of attacking exact wording and what it means in logical analysis, SpyreX can instead do the proper thing and dispute the reasons Michel believes what he does and drop the IIOA crap.)

Second, could Yabba please explain what he would consider 'proof' of guilt? Short of a cop investigation or being shown to having falsely claimed, what constitutes proof of guilt? That whole innocent until proven guilty that Michel is attacking Yabba over really does seem to be just an excuse not to vote Zwet.

[Kreriov]

Ok, finished my read through. I think one thing I noticed was all the arguing about Michel's failed logic. SpyreX is correct that Michel failed his logic comprehension test, but I do not see how that makes Michel scum. It is a pretty basic, easy mistake to make. It is also possible Michel really does know how to use logic but simply failed to write it down correctly, again an easy mistake to make. The point is, as far as I can tell,
Michel believes that WarWound (SerialClergyman now) is not scum because he does not think Iguana is scum. So what if he made a mistake in his initial statement. THAT is what Michel believes. Nothing scummy about it. UNLESS you are trying to say Michel did it deliberately or made a scum slip, which I don't really see anyone claiming. In fact, I am more inclined to see this whole argument as trying to distract people from Michel's points against Yabba than anything else.

Also, I am still confused as to why those who were so passionate about the Pom wagon seem to have simply forgotten about it? Pomegranate certainly seems worth of continued interest. Pom certainly seemed fairly scummy, but even if Pom is town, wouldn't the people driving the Pom wagon and just dropping it to get on an easier wagon rate a look see? I personally find one of the main drivers, FF, to be town, but am not so sure about others.

[SpyreX]

All of the SK talk is one of the few actual SK versus scum tells I know of. Especially when it is designed under a faulty premise AND the end result is "X is probably the SK, lynch Y"

And Y is an easier target.

Which, personally, I'm still not seeing scum on.

It COULD be a masterful move because I sure as hell don't think Iguana is scum after it. But, doubtful.

Its just scummy.

[MichelSableheart]

@Michel: I believe you're using faulty assumptions in your logic. Why is WarWound mafia if and only if Iguana is mafia? I don't see why a WarWound mafia, Iguana town scenario is being excluded in your logic.

The short version of this has been given in post #730:

Basically, I only see him as scum if Iguana turns out to be a mafia member with him. Because I see quite a lot of connections there. WarWound is blindly following her in post #182, and again in post #566. And of course they are solidly defending each other. Just look at Iguana #209 and WarWound #256 for examples.

I'll expand a bit on this.

WarWound's posts #182 and #566 are votes made basically because Iguana stated they were the correct play.

Througout the game, WarWound has continuously stated that he believed Iguana pro-town. (see posts #191, #210, #251, #256, #277)

Reading him in Isolation, there is no other player who he defends that thoroughly.

WarWound does not strike me as someone with much experience in the type of mafia played at MS. I do not believe he is capable of thinking up the tactic of thorougly and systematically defending a non-mafia member if he is mafia. I think there are only two possible explanations for his behaviour: he is mafia defending a partner, or town defending someone he genuinely believes pro-town.

[MichelSableheart]

Modus Tollens doesn't work well in mafia, especially at this point, for a reason that I thought I made clear: implication is not causality.

The problem is, though, that that statement is not clear to me. I have no idea whatsoever what you mean with causality, why it is required before I can apply modus tollens, and what IFF has to do with anything.

To me, it seemed that your post #778 claimed that, even if we assumed that the two assumptions were true, the conclusion didn't necessarily have to be true. Which doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever.

A statement such as

Thus, the statement "If WarWound is mafia, Iguana is mafia" can work because there is the implication that their alignments are tied. HOWEVER, this does NOT mean that if one is town the other is

doesn't make sense to me. If I make the statement "if WarWound is mafia, Iguana is mafia", I am explicitly ruling out the possibility that WarWound is mafia and Iguana is town. Therefore, if Iguana is town, it DOES mean that WarWound is not mafia, and therefore either town or SK.

[MichelSableheart]

Please note that I am making no claims whatsoever about Iguana's alignement if WarWound is town.

[MichelSableheart]

@Col. Cathart: Apologies for continuing the discussion with SpyreX, but I still do not understand what he is saying. I could very well see myself change my standpoint after I understand what he is aiming at. As for answering Nikanor: his question seems a seperate discussion entirely.

Maybe as I finish reading through I will find it, but I need to know why Michel BELIEVES that this is true.

I hope my reply to Nikanor answers your question as well. Please note, though, that, unrelated to the Iguana connection, WarWound also gives me strong VI vibes, but no direct scumtells. Any scumgroup that he isn't part of was very likely to try to get him lynched today. Which in turn makes me extremely wary of the wagon against him.

[SerialClergyman]

Guys

Stop the rubbish mumbo jumbo.

This back and forth between Spyrex and MichaelSableHeart is certifiably useless for the following reasons.
a) It's boring as all hell
b) it's wearing out their keyboards at a frantic rate which is bad for the environment in some sense.
c) There is obvious scum in the game in StrangerCoug.

I have a long list of town reads, probably too many, but there you go. I think skitzer is town, iguana is town, probably MSH and Spy are both town.

For the record, WarWound is worth a meta if you have any suspicions of him based on playstyle. But here's a hint for you kids - even the most retarded of VIs do not make this post about a buddy:

In my opinion, iguana is pretty dam awesome

Now foilest was scummy right off the bat.

Iguana, I appreciate your opinions, but this illustrates my point exactly. You've mentioned four people leaving 15 others (not including you) any four of whom could be scum. If they are scum they would be doing just fine since there are so many people here it would be ridiculously easy to slip by.

Typical scummy response, devaluing reads made at an early stage when iguana actually made some good concrete predictions about the group.

unvote

In reality my vote on Nikanor was a while ago and it was just a random vote, so its time to remove it.

12KB: I see the case here, and so far its the strongest against any of the players, but two scum tells and a scummy post is not enough of a difference from the other players to get my vote yet. I'm seeing an ungodly amount of lurking, and its going to be a while before I make up my mind.

Doubly so.

I'm going to go ahead and throw my vote on 12KB. vote:12KB

Most of what convinced me is on post 230.

He is the only one who has committed legitimate scum tells, and his wagon is only growing.

@Dramonic & Zwet - Odd statements thrown in every couple pages do not amount to active playing. You need to get in on this to get off of peoples scum lists. Fos:Zwet & Dramonic

Triply so. This was his lastp ost in the game, is followed the current wagon that was started by a case pages before this post by someone else.

I was wondering if it was bad play as opposed to scummy play, but I don't think so. It's not just fluffing about, it's discrediting attempts to advance the game and joining a current wagon.

But aside from that - we then had Zazie jump in and out again without much added.

Then SCoug comes in and posts a very long PBPA, which ended with a vote on... Warwound. The most classic scum lynchbait player ever. Plus with the reasoning of things like town should scumhunt and town shouldn't be afraid of a mislynch, he's already settling in with the most basic of reasons.

Second, I'd be willing to lynch saber simply for putting me in his scumlist.

Unvote. Vote: saberwolf.

FoS: Nikanor

. Shamelessly OMGUS'ing here.

Ugh. I mean seriously. This is world class scum-showing-they-are-hunting.

Finally, joining MSH's wagon because he thought Spyrex was winning the argument is meh (no particular reason he's scum despite losing the argument, especially as MSH was apparantly agreeing with SCoug's prediction of WWscum) but then unvoting without voting anyone else after little change isdodgy.

Time to get it done. No more walls without scumhunting. Spyrex, that means you. Get it done.

vote StrangerCoug

[skitzer]

OMG so so so sorry! stuff/school/friends/Thanksgiving got in the way of this game, and I am sad. Please don't replace mee!

I reread, but I'm off my game and I need to actually reread instead of just skim and say reread. Pardon me.

[yabbaguy]

I'm so fucking livid. I don't even feel like putting nearly all my points and post # refs back, because I had a nice post, and then I hit the goddamned X button on my browser.

@Nikanor: How would the scenario of scum targetting me be more obvoius? Admittedly, Michel slides back into the town column for me, so the theory dwindles a bit, but how would that be the case?

@Michel: Basically, all it boils down to is that you believe that my fencesitting is actually scum just waiting to pounce when I had the chance. However, it really was just me being speculative on zwet throughout, and yes, I was waiting for him to slip up so that he could be exposed as scum. When it came, I jumped on it.

@SpyreX: What were you hoping to gain from the logic debate?

@ClergyMan: You don't actually mention where the logic debate is headed. Do you think SpyreX is actually trying to find scum in Michel, or vice versa?

@Kreriov: Yeah, it's true, guilty proof isn't really 100% in the case of D1, for sure, otherwise zwet would've flipped scum with "concrete" evidence. Part of what spawned the statement was that I initially thought SpyreX's debate was trying to actually probe Michel's alignment. ClergyMan's throwing that into question (I think?) but that's what I consider proof, being shown to have logical inconsitencies.

@Coug: I also find the reasoning for your voting crappy. I don't know whether it's actually scum opportunism or that you're just completely tossing the issue of meta out of the picture. Nikanor, he's kinda screwing around, but that does make him scum, or is it just consistent with his meta of being screwy Nikanor? WarWound, yes, he's been making shit attacks all game, but do you think he was actually capable as opposed to just being stupid? And how about Michel, who you claim had a logical inconsistency. That's nice. Why is he scummy?

Good, I have my points down on the page again. I'm gonna hit Submit, and then stop typing. I'm so mad right now I lost my pristine post.

[SpyreX]

Before I get into detail(s) again, let me reiterate:

This is not a logic debate for the sake of logic. I am of the opinion that this was actively misused logic - and, thusly, that Mic is scum (specifically due to the SK fascination that ended in not voting for the SK).

So, if necessary I CAN stop arguing it but until it amounts to votes because people see what I'm arguing about I will continue.

Just not at the moment since I have company

[SerialClergyman]

Then wake me up when you're ready to vote for scummy mcscumerson scoug.

[Iguana]

Ya know? I was looking through my posts to quote this in an attempt to push the skitzer lynch a bit again... but realized that my post never showed up

On the replacement issues: Hyl and foilists replacement requests were so unexpected that I felt the need to comment on them. Pomegranates is also surprising.

So? Do you think that them asking for a replacement is a scumtell in this situation? I see no point to bring this up if you dont see it as a tell.

I mentioned Nikanor's lurking because it is so contrary from his normal play. There is nothing wrong with that.

What conclusions are you drawing from this?

On the zwetschenwasser vote: I would have voted, but it wasn't really a well based lynch. So I set a deadline for myself in case something better came up by Wednesday.

You werent looking for anything better though. That is one of hte problems I really have had with you is that you just are playing a "me too" game following along with whatever wagon is big at the time as opposed to doing some scumhunting of your own.

unvote
vote skitzer

Im still not really liking SC/Zazie/F13 wagon a whole lot outside of information, and still am much against a WW wagon (or whoever he is now) because of my day one read on him. Skitzer or Hyl are my prefered lynches, 12kb is an acceptable one (possibly yabba too). Not overly keen on any other at this point though.

[SerialClergyman]

Zzz

Spyrex, at least stop trying to convince MSH that he's wrong, because if he's scum you won't be successful, and try to convince

me

that he is, and that this logic issue is more important than my case.

[SerialClergyman]

Iguana - I'm the new war wound.

Can someone tell me how the zwet in this game is different from the zwet in every other game? Maybe then I'll consider a vote.

skitzer is town. No way scum would be dissuading that wagon. And noticing Nikanor's different meta is a good thing.

[StrangerCoug]

Then SCoug comes in and posts a very long PBPA, which ended with a vote on... Warwound. The most classic scum lynchbait player ever. Plus with the reasoning of things like town should scumhunt and town shouldn't be afraid of a mislynch, he's already settling in with the most basic of reasons.

WarWound wasn't doing anything to further the game. He had been allowed lots of opportunity to help us, but he wanted to sit there and whine. That I don't have a meta favoring new players is not scummy. I play hardball.

Second, I'd be willing to lynch saber simply for putting me in his scumlist.

Unvote. Vote: saberwolf.

FoS: Nikanor

. Shamelessly OMGUS'ing here.

Ugh. I mean seriously. This is world class scum-showing-they-are-hunting.

This was well beyond the random voting stage. Joke time was over.

Finally, joining MSH's wagon because he thought Spyrex was winning the argument is meh (no particular reason he's scum despite losing the argument, especially as MSH was apparantly agreeing with SCoug's prediction of WWscum) but then unvoting without voting anyone else after little change isdodgy.

I should not have jumped with that MichelSableheart vote. That was a big mistake on my part, and I apologize for it.

Also, I did not revote you to allow you a bit of breathing room. You're still on the scummy side because of WarWound's actions.

Most of your case against me is pretty much that I am being cheap. Understandable, but I've had better presented against me.

@Coug: I also find the reasoning for your voting crappy. I don't know whether it's actually scum opportunism or that you're just completely tossing the issue of meta out of the picture.

It's the latter. I feel it a bad idea to place too much stock in meta. You'll get a better idea of that person's playstyle if you're familiar with it, but it's a terrible indicator of alignment. (This may lead you to believe that I scumhunt by the book, but I don't like doing that too much either.)

Nikanor, he's kinda screwing around, but that does make him scum, or is it just consistent with his meta of being screwy Nikanor?

I am not familiar with Nikanor's meta and I expect people to be serious after the RVS. So in my mind, scummy.

WarWound, yes, he's been making shit attacks all game, but do you think he was actually capable as opposed to just being stupid?

WarWound posted in this thread 65 times. He'd been exposed to how we play on this site, and I expected him to pick up on this—and there are indications that he did—and use it to our advantage. He may have come in a complete idiot, but later on I expected him to be about as capable as anyone else in the game.

And how about Michel, who you claim had a logical inconsistency. That's nice. Why is he scummy?

I dropped the inconsistency case when he showed his logic to be indeed consistent. So he's not as scummy as I thought. Maybe neutral.