Oh, I got off my bum and took five minutes to think about this game and realized this is really all too simple, too good to be true.
EriktheRed
Symbol
Torqez
iamausername
MacavityLock
Tubby is/was pretty much 100% scum (in addition to being mega-scummy in the first place, tubby never so much as mentioned Hoopla, and vice versa, lazy teammates that they were), so he's got red boldface to represent definite scum. Crossing myself off for practicality's sake, and because, IIRC, I had a scum read (a shaky one, admittedly) on Hoopla from the start. Same goes for Torqez (crossed off). I'd cross out Erik, too, but he didn't really do much with his Hoopla read other than get a player not named Hoopla (JVW) lynched—intriguingly suspicious, but not conclusive in any way, shape, or form.
EriktheRed
iamausername
MacavityLock
What I mentioned about about Erik is still notable. In other news, MacavityLock defended Hoopla hardcore from RECK's day 1 accusations of role fishing, but I could see that as Lock-town simply coming to the wrong conclusion (who doesn't?). But in his iso. 21, Lock also planted a "mild town read" on her for no real reason, while gently reminding her to stop being scummy with his "Her iso 16 worries me though" remark. Later on, Lock does call out Hoopla's role fishing, but fails to follow up on it, so that's null, and if anything worthy of suspicion. But we'll play it safe here. Instead, I'd rather swing my attention to iamausername, who I've had a mega-town read on for a long time now (I think I FOSed him when I replaced in, for what it's worth). His posts simply ring town. I'm gonna stick by that read. Let's scratch him off the list.
EriktheRed
MacavityLock
Ta-da. One to go if there are only three scum. Back to Lock's posts in isolation. I'm generally not fond of iso. 44, but whatever. Iso. 45 is a lousy case because Erik had more than one scum read (am I right?) and looked pretty pro-town in his beating of JVW despite JVW's flip. And iso. 46 ... I don't get what doesn't compute about that. Erik certainly stretched his self-advertisement, but really, that's a poor case by Lock. Lock really looks like he's reaching and that matches a suspicion of him I've danced around for a good while now: scum trying to legitimately scum-hunt, be pro-town, lead the village all the to hell
and back
, etc. Also, Lock barely conversed with Erik throughout day 1, except for iso. 35 (still Lock's iso.), in which he used the a version of the Too Scummy Fallacy to shield tubby from Erik's attacks.
Now, day 1. MacavityLock tunnel-visioned on Suave
all damn day
. He went after the easy newbie lynch and leaned on it a helluva lot despite carrying the air of an invested scum hunter. If you look closely, he's really just engaged in some sophisticated active lurking. His suspects as he listed them were Suave, Geek (now Erik, popular wagon), Zazie (policy lynch, massive cop-out), and JVW (we all know how he turned out). That list was pared down at the end of day 1 to Suave, JVW, and Erik ... Baffling that JVW and Erik were both among his top three suspects because (a) he barely spoke out against Erik, (b) Erik was pounding JVW
hard
, and (c) he was largely silent about JVW, so that
really
looks like he was setting up for a wagon on JVW. (He does the same thing with Erik and Nuwen/Looker at the start of day 2.)
I can come up with more later if you all hunger for more walls-o'-text. I've only done a cursory review of Erik's posts because I've sold myself on Lock-scum—and I'm not even including the ultra-scum vibes his language has rained down (in my eyes at least) from square one—and because I really think the general pattern of Erik's play and the way he's worked in general looks genuine, even if he has slipped up here and there (and still to a much lesser degree than Lock has). If he's scum, then screw me, but we're auto-lynching Tubby today so it doesn't matter yet.
TLDR:
EriktheRed
Symbol
Torqez
iamausername
Again, the hell with no lynch. We're killing scum and we're killing them right fricking now. Like, really. My confidence in these reads blow the rest of my thoughts this game out of the water.
So please,
Moar voats on tubby216. Please and thank you.
The only argument that can explain tubby's style here is that he is deliberately trolling to sabotage the town's chances, and that's way the hell beyond blacklist. I don't buy it. Let's go. Everyone voting not to lynch is a pansy. String up scum.