Mini 878: Nouns Mafia - Da game is ovah!

[SpyreX]

And if I get mystery hammered well I think that'd be just fine since the chances of that happening at this stage not being scum fueled would be just gravy.

Vote Count 6

StrangerCoug:

3 (elvis_knits, Iecerint, MacavityLock)

SpyreX:

2 (SpyreX)

Iecerint:

2 (Percy, Konowa)

elvis_knits:

1 StrangerCoug)

SpyreX:

1 (Seol)

8

alive,

5

to lynch.

Deadline:

Wednesday, December 2nd, 12:00 Noon EST

[elvis_knits]

I was just concerned with a kamikazee scum move hammer by SC since he's prob going to get lynched today. Normally I wouldn't expect that to happen, but if we're right about SC, then he has nothing to lose.

[SpyreX]

Before I start MAGIC ANALYSIS:

@E_K:

Was the business with Nets claim not looking right cleared up by the night kills?

[elvis_knits]

Well, in a way, yes. Atleast, my problem with it is now understood. But I don't know exactly what everyone else thought or if it's cleared up for them. I don't think we ever discussed why we didn't like Net's claim. Thinking that it would give scum a better idea how to fake claim effectively if we discussed, or also maybe discern who was vanilla vs. power by how people were talking.

I am almost to the point where I want to discuss this and lay it out on the table. I am very much in favor of full disclosure unless I think there's something we think we will gain from keeping secrets.

I dunno. Perhaps we should discuss more fully after SC claims (assuming it gets that far).

Also, important to remember one of the reasons for lynching Net was he claimed vanilla. So he was either vanilla or scum, and therefore even if we were wrong, the bleeding wouldn't be so bad. Seol taught me a nifty phrase: BWCS (Best Worst Case Scenario).

[SpyreX]

There's gonna be a LOT of words here, be forwarned:

Boxman

: 3 (

SensFan

, Seol, StrangerCoug)
Sens Fan: 3 (Konowa, elvis_knits,

Netopalis

)
Parhelic: 2 (MacavityLock, Iecerint)
elvis_knits: 1 (

mathcam

)
Seol: 1 (Percy)
Netopalis: 1 (

Boxman

)

Not Voting: (Parhelic)

Boxman

: 5 (Konowa,

Netopalis

,

mathcam

, elvis_knits, Seol)

Netopalis

: 4 (StrangerCoug,

SensFan

, Iecerint,

Boxman

)

Not Voting: (big_kahunia, MacavityLock, Percy)

Boxman

: 6 (StrangerCoug, Konowa,

Netopalis

,

mathcam

, elvis_knits, Seol)

Netopalis

: 4 (MacavityLock,

SensFan

, Iecerint, Boxman)
Iecerint: 1 (Percy)

Not Voting: (big_kahunia)

Netopalis

: 7 (

mathcam

, elvis_knits, Seol, MacavityLock,

SensFan

, Iecerint,

Boxman

)

Boxman

: 3 (StrangerCoug, Konowa,

Netopalis

)
Iecerint: 1 (Percy)

Not Voting: (big_kahunia)

-----

So, lets look at this and make a few general conjectures.

Looking at the competing wagons and the fact we've had a busy night realistically we're looking at three (although one would be scary) scenarios:

8/3/1 - SK
9/3/1 - Vig
8/4 or 8/2/2 -

So, that said, With them being so close AND it shifting to town off scum in this list:

E_K, Seol, MacavityLock, Icerint

There is a scum. However, lets do another little parse based on VC 3 versus 4:

Icerint & MacavityLock were stuck on Net

before

the jump. Which means of the scum I'm looking for I'll take them out of the equation.

Leaving: Seol and E_K.

Which, again, raises some eyes. Both of them contributed to the lynch in odd ways (e_k's statement that Net's claim didn't look right AND Seol's BWCS business).

Of those two (and as a function of greater play) one stands out as scum motivated versus town motivated:

Unvote, Vote: Seol

BUT I AM NOT DONE!

Lets look at the other end of this little pickle: the scum that stayed off that wagon:

SC, Konowa, Percy

SC jumped out on the early Box train. Then jumped to Net, THEN, jumped back to Box and stuck there.

Konowa stayed out of the fracas on the bizarro Sens wagon until Box took the lead and then stuck there.

Percy tossed out a throwaway vote, then didn't vote, then another throwaway vote at the end.

So, once again, the real question is: would scum stick on their PR like glue or not?

Again, I'm banking on not. For one early good reason:

I think Boxman may be scum, but that the case on Netopalis is pretty dead unless Boxman is scum.

and one other:

Iecerint - scum, more votes guys kthx
big_kahunia - scummy, third party makes sense
ML, Konowa, SC - IGMEOY
Seol, elvis - solid town

-----

So, yea, Seol and Percy from that review.

AND NOW PREVIEW EDIT:

Well, in a way, yes. Atleast, my problem with it is now understood. But I don't know exactly what everyone else thought or if it's cleared up for them. I don't think we ever discussed why we didn't like Net's claim. Thinking that it would give scum a better idea how to fake claim effectively if we discussed, or also maybe discern who was vanilla vs. power by how people were talking.

I am almost to the point where I want to discuss this and lay it out on the table. I am very much in favor of full disclosure unless I think there's something we think we will gain from keeping secrets.

I dunno. Perhaps we should discuss more fully after SC claims (assuming it gets that far).

Also, important to remember one of the reasons for lynching Net was he claimed vanilla. So he was either vanilla or scum, and therefore even if we were wrong, the bleeding wouldn't be so bad. Seol taught me a nifty phrase: BWCS (Best Worst Case Scenario).

See, thats the thing. Your statement oozed town - however, the reaction (or absence thereof) has some pretty nasty scum connotations (I think I've figured out the issue but).

As for the BWCS - it's just a fancy way of saying "Lynch vanilla claims, save PR's" which loses sight of scumminess and is a flag for "SCUM CLAIM PR'S PLOX"

So, yea, the addition of of the BWCS doesn't do a whole lot for me.

[Iecerint]

It's true that BWCS ultimately leads to a paradigm shift where scum players (and ultimately maybe even townies -- ugh) start more commonly fakeclaiming PRs. Are we at that level? I'm not convinced that we are. As such, I think it's decent to point out that only pulling one claim and lynching a vanilla D1 isn't too bad, all things considered, especially if it's a claim on a sketchy player.

I am sympathetic to your claim that Seol is the scummiest out of Seol, EK, ML, and myself. However, I am not convinced that one of us is necessarily scum. That assumes 2 scum on the wagon altogether, which seems possible but not essential to me. Neto claimed at (L-2) IIRC; I think an unsolicited vanilla claim kinda invites attention.

I am also somewhat sympathetic of your view that Percy is scummy out of SC, Percy, and Konowa. However, I do not understand your justification. Could you clarify what those quotes have to do with your read on Percy? Also, please clarify how Percy beats out SC in that category. Both players failed to "stick" IMO, unless you think Percy's vote was deliberately weak or something; it didn't look that way to me.

(Also: I just noticed that Percy was apparently the first to call BK 3rd party. Elvis, was your read on BK based on Percy's speculation?)

[SpyreX]

The thing is, and I DO get the benefit of replacementism:

Net was NOT that sketchy.

He was a fallguy.

And if the wagon shift from scum to town DIDNT involve a scum pre-hammer I would absolutely :headdesk: over it.

As for that claim being unsolicited? Really?

---

As for Percy, here's my issue with that first quote with what we now know:

"It looks like Boxman is going to be the lynch. Lets salvage what we can out of it by making a false tie to a town for a mislynch tomorrow."

Because, of course, the flipside to that "Lets say if Net is town then Box is town" wouldn't work and would have been instant death.

As for the other: look at who his two TOTALLY town reads are. Yea.

---

And say what you will but SC was fairly stuck on Box for most of it. A bus? Maybe. If so a beautiful one - but when the first line of Box hate was on fairly weak grounds it would have made more sense to shuck and move instead of condemning a PR.

[elvis_knits]

Spyrex wagon analysis is good for the most part, but I do agree with Iecerint that the statement "there must be one more scum on the wagon, and one more off the wagon" is not necessarily true. I think it is likely to be true, but not necessarily. That said, I like Spyrex's conclusions. I mean, Seol, is getting scummier by the post, IMO. I can do a bigger post on my overall dislike of him, but I think he has enough to answer for at the moment.

The other scum pick of Percy may be good also. I went into today feeling he was town based on a few posts I agreed with. But he hadn't posted much. I don't love the fact that he went after Iecerint yesterday and also today because he's only really gone after one person. That doesn't give me much information on him. Plus I am thinking Iecerint as likely town right now. Also, one of Percy's latest post he said he agreed with me like 10 times. I mean, there's nothing wrong with agreeing with me but it seemed a bit much. Like he was more than agreeing with me but not actually thinking for himself. Because he did it so much. I am not feeling very sure on Percy either way, but I can see where spyrex is coming from.

Spyrex, I think there's probably two more mafia plus an SK. You've named Seol and Percy, any thoughts on a third scum?

Anywho... I am willing to explain what I didn't like about Neto's claim at some point where we think it will not be hurtful to the town.

I will say this: SC hinted that he didn't like the claim either, but NOT for the reason I didn't like it!

[SpyreX]

Yea, the third scum was Boxman

I can't decide if that was a vig or SK shot, honestly.

If I was to lay down the LAW on a third it'd probably be Konowa at the mo'.

[elvis_knits]

(Also: I just noticed that Percy was apparently the first to call BK 3rd party. Elvis, was your read on BK based on Percy's speculation?)

I didn't remember that Percy was the first one to say that.

My idea was not based on Percy. I thought that BK being so non-commital and not really preferring box OR net meant he could be an SK. And not really trying to scum hunt. SK's don't like to anger the mafia, so they tend to scum hunt less. That was my thinking.

I don't think spyrex is the SK anymore though. I mean, not totally sure, but he's making sense to me, so I'm not interested in pursuing him at the moment.

As for telling SK from Mafia at this point, I don't know. I think SC and Seol could be buddies from the way Seol has resisted the awesomeness of the SC wagon, trying to tear down my reasons, while still putting in some points where SC *might* be scum.

[SpyreX]

I'm not going to weep if SC goes down. However, I find it FAR more likely that Seol / Percy are scum.

SC as an SK, maaaybe. Probably town though.

[Iecerint]

I do not recall Neto's claim being solicited. My recollection is interpreting that he got tired of the game stagnating and decided to go ahead and claim. It was particularly irritating to me because I was trying to communicate with BK to see whether there was something there. Please let me know if I just missed where the solicitation happened.

As much as I love that you don't love Percy, I think you're reading too much D2 rhetoric into your evidence against Percy. His first post is basically the same (accurate) rhetoric that elvis-and-cohorts were espousing all day. I don't think it's fair to say that Percy specifically is scummy for that unless you establish why the other players who had the same view were not scummy. I also don't see any conflict in someone thinking that Seol and EK were both town D1. Seol's anti-elvis business only became apparent within the last two pages or so. On the other hand, Seol's role in starting the Neto wagon does seem a little at-odds with also thinking elvis town.

I agree with you that SC's being on BM most of D1 is a net chip in his favor. That said, I'm inclined to believe that he thought it would be a quick early-game wagon based on a very weak scumtell and go away just as quickly. Unfortunately, BM's subsequent disappearance prevented him from easily leaving the wagon. He ultimately tried leaving it to join Neto's, but he fumbled on the required logic, and returned to BM's.

[elvis_knits]

Why is SC probably town?

[elvis_knits]

Why is SC probably town?

That was @ Spyrex

[SpyreX]

I do not recall Neto's claim being solicited. My recollection is interpreting that he got tired of the game stagnating and decided to go ahead and claim. It was particularly irritating to me because I was trying to communicate with BK to see whether there was something there. Please let me know if I just missed where the solicitation happened.

As much as I love that you don't love Percy, I think you're reading too much D2 rhetoric into your evidence against Percy. His first post is basically the same (accurate) rhetoric that elvis-and-cohorts were espousing all day. I don't think it's fair to say that Percy specifically is scummy for that unless you establish why the other players who had the same view were not scummy. I also don't see any conflict in someone thinking that Seol and EK were both town D1. Seol's anti-elvis business only became apparent within the last two pages or so. On the other hand, Seol's role in starting the Neto wagon does seem a little at-odds with also thinking elvis town.

I agree with you that SC's being on BM most of D1 is a net chip in his favor. That said, I'm inclined to believe that he thought it would be a quick early-game wagon based on a very weak scumtell and go away just as quickly. Unfortunately, BM's subsequent disappearance prevented him from easily leaving the wagon. He ultimately tried leaving it to join Neto's, but he fumbled on the required logic, and returned to BM's.

A wagon, by nature, is a solicitation of a claim when it is at the L-2 or L-1 mark (note: what would have happened had he opted NOT to claim).

Putting Seol where he was as a function of setting a buddy up with a counterpart makes sense to me as a scum move ESPECIALLY when they couldn't have expected a dead Boxman that night.

As for SC being town - it's a function of jumping all over box and holding to it. That and the case is fairly blah.

The only thing that REALLY concerns me is the callout on the Stethescope not seeming a VT claim (which I get) but holding to the Box lynch - that's balls of steel if he's Box's scumpartner and that wagon shifts back.

[elvis_knits]

I don't think there was much risk of the Net lynch NOT going through at that point. So I don't think it was a risk for SC to stay on Boxman. I also don't think SC really knew what to say about the Neto claim. He said he wasn't sure he could understand "Stethoscope" being a vanilla role. That was mildly confusing, but the OP says role might not match flavor. So... I know he did not have the problem I had with the claim.

[SpyreX]

No - I'm PRETTY sure I know what your problem is with it. SC's is a lot more "weird".

(FTR if I had replaced in before that lynch I would have fought tooth and nail to get it shifted off Net)

Another Percy tidbit:

If he believed that if Box was scum then Net is scum... where do you think, once the wagons were ACTUALLY up his vote would have been?

[Iecerint]

I think a claim is appropriate when a player is at L-1 and is asked to claim. Before that time, discussion is ongoing. The only time someone should claim earlier is if a player knows he will be lynched at L-1 or earlier, in which case he should point out as much and/or claim ahead of time.

You're saying that Percy deliberately put his buddy (Seol) and his buddy's "enemy" (EK) as town? If so, I think you're not interpreting the post in context. Seol's D1 enemy, if anyone, was Neto; elvis's was either SF or me.

What do you mean by your last sentence? It reads like you think that SC is suspicious for calling out Neto's claim without voting Neto, but then you say that he'd have to be very brave to do that as scum. Which did you mean?

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: The Percy scumlist SX listed is from today, so that part of SX's post now makes a lot of sense. I'd thought it was the list from his initial post for whatever reason. I think the post still came before most of the Seol v. EK business, though, so some of what I said still matters.

I agree with SX on it being sort of lame that Percy never voted for BM given aspects of his rhetoric.

[SpyreX]

If you're vanilla and going up the ropes the claim makes sense.

I'm saying Percy-scum put Seol-scum and E_K-supertown in the "town" category.

In this framework the Stethescope != VT kind of makes sense (but really shouldn't be a weight either way) but bringing that up and staning firm on the box is ehhh

[elvis_knits]

No - I'm PRETTY sure I know what your problem is with it. SC's is a lot more "weird".

(FTR if I had replaced in before that lynch I would have fought tooth and nail to get it shifted off Net)

Another Percy tidbit:

If he believed that if Box was scum then Net is scum... where do you think, once the wagons were ACTUALLY up his vote would have been?

I wish I could just explain so we could see if we're on the same page about this... :/ I don't really know what you mean by SC's being a lot more "weird." But I guess you can't explain.

So if Seol is scum, and if SC is town (I'm not convinced yet, but you seem to think this), then why is Seol being so resistant to SC lynch?

Also, it sounds like a lot of the logic you are using to clear SC only clears him of being mafia, so he could still be SK.

I am warming to your Percy idea, because the more I think about it, it is sort of cowardly to vote Iecerint yesterday when he had no chance of being lynched, and stay off the major issues, and to continue to do it today when he is seeming town. Ah, but then again, I still sort of think him town. Conflict!

[SpyreX]

I'm all for wringing my hands at a townie lynch when I think it'll give me some cred. (based on SC being town, o course).

[elvis_knits]

Do you have an SC meta? I only remember playing with him when he was like total newb.

[Seol]

A lot here to go through. I'll get as far as I can.

I do not care for page count arguments. People should stand by their votes whenever they make them.

I disagree strongly with this. Context and perspective are important.

I often see odd scum interactions early in the game, so I do not discount early game at all. I do not agree with people who think there's nothing to be learned from the so-called random voting period, or early game.

I wasn't arguing that. I just disagree with your conclusions.

Yeah, quite a few of us did that. I did. You did. mathcam and Sensfan, both known town, did. Unlike us though, Stranger was back on the scum by the end of the day (before Neto's claim, which is what crystallised the wagon into a lynch), and didn't hammer - which could be described as trying to keep a clean record, but is just as likely to be that he preferred to vote Box, as he said.

This is very sneaky, Seol! You are not taking into account the circumstances in which SC changed his vote and the circumstances when me, you, mathcam switched our votes.

Me, you, mathcam changed our votes after neto had claimed vanilla. Claimed vanilla made him a good lynch (as he's either vanilla or scum), and we were trying to stop any role info being discussed. Those are pro-town reasons for switching to Neto.

SC, however, changed his vote from Boxman to Neto on shaky reasoning -- Neto was trying too hard to look town.

Circumstances totally different. Don't compare the two.

It seems we fundamentally disagree on what constitutes a good reason. At this point, I would emphasise that what's important here isn't whether you agree with SC's reasoning, or even whether SC was right or not: what's important is whether SC was making an excuse for a switch, or it was something he genuinely believed. If he thought it was a valid tell, then his vote change is not indicative of alignment.

So if you establish that

SC believed

it was a bad reason, then yes, it's opportunistic and scummy. If not, then it's exactly as informative as any of ours.

Okay, I still think this is crap.

How can you tell the difference between someone being town and someone trying to be town? What about Neto looked forced and artificial? I think there is no quantifiable way to tell the difference, and that saying that you can tell the difference is unprovable and therefore highly open to manipulation and therefor likely to be used by scum.

I think I can tell the difference between genuine and artificial statements. That's my whole point about big_kahunia. It's not quantifiable, true, and it's not perfectly reliable. It's subtle, and I can't prove my argument one way or the other. But it's those sorts of tells that are the most powerful, if you can catch them, because those relate directly to inconsistencies and lies.

I do not think much of my case is about playstyle. The only part I can see about playstyle is the Major HOS part.

I think you think anyone who disagrees with you, who uses an approach you don't understand or think effective, is scummy. That's the playstyle clash I was talking about.

[SpyreX]

A pox on meta.