Mini 873 Plainview Game Over

[Gammagooey]

While I wait for archae to respond, might as well go off on a tangent for a bit.

@cruelty, archaebob, and peanutman-Has your opinion of foilist changed with Sociopath's flip?

[foilist13]

That was the most ridiculous day 1 I've ever seen. I agree that Archaebob looks scummy right now, but I'm not really into the idea of lynching him. I've played another game with him, and read another that he was in, and it doesn't seem to odd that he would be upset at the sudden change of pace. I'm much more comfortable with lynching Peanutman right now, but I'm going to with hold my vote until I get my thoughts in order.

[PhaerieM]

Why are you guys suspicious of peanutman? He was, arguably, the person that made the lynch happen, if I remember correctly.

First, I made my case on the pastry. Some of you guys seemed to like it/agree with it, but only in passing. Then it was right back to the "inevitable" AGM vs Foilist lynch, and my attempts to discuss it further were generally ignored. Papa Zito finally noticed that something was up with Muffin/Socio (albeit for different reasons than my own), and said screw it, and voted him. Gamma came on & lambasted Papa for making a useless vote, saying we'd never be able to get enough people to switch in time. No one else commented (Sanjay unvoted, but I don't know if that was in response to Papa). The public perception seemed to be that it was just a silly thing for Papa to do. Then Peanut came on & said that he didn't really want to lynch Foilist/AGM either (and if he was scum, you'd think he would just go with the flow), unvoted, and said he was going to read up on Muffin/Socio again. I don't see any scum motivation to doing this, bussing your scumbuddy Day 1 when they're under comparatively very little pressure, & when it still looks inevitable that one of two *other* people are to be lynched.

He then even addresses me, asking if I'm going to come back and place my vote for Muffin since he knew I wanted Muffin lynched, telling me that there may be some momentum for it, and that it wouldn't necessarily be a vote for a "third party candidate" anymore. This would have been strangely helpful for scum to put themselves out there and say that about their scumbuddy, *asking* someone to come back and possibly vote him. I feel the momentum for Muffin's lynch came from peanutman himself, because he was the first person to take Papa's vote as a serious possibility. I just find it hard to believe that, if he was Muffin's scumbuddy, he would take just what Papa said & start vocally considering Muffin's lynch, even asking if someone who had a previous case on his scumbuddy was going to come back and vote. There was no real lynch pressure on Muffin until peanutman himself did that, so I just don't see the motivation. If there had already been 2 or 3 people who jumped on the Muffin bandwagon, then I'd be more suspicious of him. But as it was, I just don't see him doing that as scum. If he is scum, then I think he'd have to be an extremely paranoid scum, freaking out at papa's vote and deciding he needs to bus Muffin right away.

So I guess it really comes down to perception. If peanutman perceived that Papa's vote and subsequent posts, and Sanjay's unvote of Foilist were enough pressure on Muffin to make a lynch probable, then I can totally see peanut being scum & throwing his hat into the muffin ring to protect himself. However, I don't know how likely it is that he felt *that* pressured by those two things.

I will do a reread on him since a lot of you seem to have suspicion of him, but can you guys please elaborate on why you think he is scum, considering the events of late Day 1?

to cruelty: that last post of yours didn't really make very much sense to me.

MordyS: why the sudden change in playstyle at the end of the day 1, and today? You're very tight-lipped now. Is there a reason for it?

I really wish archaebob would come on and post.

[MordyS]

MordyS: why the sudden change in playstyle at the end of the day 1, and today? You're very tight-lipped now. Is there a reason for it?

Yes, there is. I'll have what to say in a bit (despite feeling Peanut is a good lynch, I haven't voted for him yet), but at the moment I'm -- to quote cruelty, I believe? -- hold cards close to my chest.

[archaebob]

Ok you guys, that was pretty ridiculous. I don't even have a fucking clue of what to say about that.

@ Gamma -

His meta is a mitigating factor in my ability to be confident that he's scum simply from his gameplay. It is not a mitigating factor in how

other

players (cough cough peanutman cough) interact with him, and therefore not a mitigating factor in the amount of information to be had from his lynch. My ultimate decision to lynch foilist was based on strategic reasons, and the fact that I didn't see anybody else who was as independently scummy as foilist.

Regarding Sociopath-

I honestly think that yesterday's lynch was borderline insanity, and that we got VERY lucky. I still fail to see the justification for quicklynching a replacement, and I never found the muffin case terribly compelling. The only thing to say about Muffin, from my perspective, is that he posted far less content than is normal for him. Because of this, he was somewhat suspicious to me for a time, but when he replaced out from RL problems, I couldn't see anyway to interpret his low content as indicative of alignment. Sociopath then replaced in, explicitly stating in the thread that he didn't want to post anything until he had read the whole thread. At the time I considered that acceptable, as it was a direct, falsifiable promise about his future play. So naturally, of course, he took a monstrous amount of time to get caught up, and never really posted anything. This bothered me a lot, and I started to call him out on it; however, the day was getting long, and I felt like I had already used up all of my political capital earlier on when I was dealing with the other lurkers. The only thing I could have done, really, was try to pull another "nobody post until he posts" stunt, but I guessed that it wouldn't work, and that I would just be forfeiting my ability to influence the D1 lynch. I decided to let him slide with the lurking, focusing my energy instead on trying to move the wagon over from AGM to foilist. At a certain point, I thought I saw something in Sanjay's play, and went off the deep about it. It quickly became clear to me that whether or not I was right about him, I had nothing approaching a good case, and it was too early to try and incriminate him further. So, I backed down, and declared that I was ready to lynch foilist.

Suddenly, Pharie votes for Sociopath, and suddenly a large chunk of the town does. What the hell am I supposed to make of this exactly? The lurking is smelly sure, but neither Muffin nor Sociopath ever really did anything concretely scummy. I certainly didn't think randomly quicklynching Sociopath would be good for the town, as there was no reason to expect that he wouldn't just turn up as a lurker townie. And tell me, what would we have learned if Sociopath had flipped town? Nothing.

From my perspective, the whole town switching wagons at the last second like that, completely ignoring the two people we'd been talking about all day, was very very very shifty. I thought for sure that some serious scum maneuvering was going on there. Think about it from my perspective. I really didn't believe that Sociopath was particularly likely to be scum, so all I saw was a whole bunch of people suddenly piling on a pretty random person. What did you expect me to do? Join the mob? Would that have satisfied you?

As far as my inactivity goes, I had legitimate RL stuffs going on towards the end of last week, particularly Thursday (Calc test the next day). Also, I had already sort of said my piece about who I wanted lynched, and didn't really think I would be accomplishing anything by trying to get super self-righteous at everyone. And finally, I was flabbergasted as fuck over what was going on, and needed time to assess the situation (which I didn't have).

Imma have to go over thread before I can say much else, and I really don't have the time tonight. There's another game that I'm totally neglecting right now, and my attention is going to go there first. I contributed a solid sixth of the posts yesterday, so y'all should be fine getting on for a while without me.

[MordyS]

EBWOP holding*

[Gammagooey]

Yay, I get answer. I am dissapointed by a lack of alliteration though.

So what I'm thinking right now. Archae could be scum, but I doubt it. For one thing, he did seem pretty townie to me for most of yesterday except the very last bit.
The much bigger thing is that I honestly can't think of a scum-partner for him that makes a whole lot of sense to me. Pretty much everyone else who I'm finding scummy was voting for archaebob at some point during yesterday when there were much better choices to lynch at the time.

So right now, I'd have to guess that the remaining mafia are 2/3rds of Almaster, cruelty, and peanutman. Almaster's doc claim still doesn't make sense to me, and he's still alive, so grr.

However, after going through peanutman and cruelty, I barely even see them mentioning each other in the entire 30-something page debacle.

Peanutman and Cruelty-Since it's so conspiciously absent from day 1, what are your opinions on each other.

[foilist13]

Like I said earlier I'm not terribly suspicious of Archaebob, and his last post seems reasonable enough.

@Phaerie - I can see what you're saying about Peanutman, and I'm still not particularly inclined to vote him, but why don't you tell us who you do suspect?

@Archaebob - So now what? Do you still want to lynch me, or do you have another suspect?

[PhaerieM]

@Phaerie - I can see what you're saying about Peanutman, and I'm still not particularly inclined to vote him, but why don't you tell us who you do suspect?

Umm.. already did? Check my first post after Day 2 began. More in-depth later. Catch-up football to be watched.

[Papa Zito]

SpyreX, wryyyyyyyyyy???

Arrite. Our flip wasn't just scum, but scum Godfather. This is a huge deal. Here's where we sat when we made our switch:

Vote Count:
AlmasterGM (3) MordyS, foilist13, SpyreX
foilist13 (6) cruelty, archaebob, Sanjay, AlmasterGM, peanutman, Gammagooey
SocioPath (1) Papa Zito

Note Voting (2) SocioPath, PhaerieM

Deadline November 20 4pm EST

I'm willing to eat one of SpyreX's hats if foilist13 isn't town based off of this. There's no reason scum would shift a wagon from Scum Role X onto a Godfather.

Now, again, we need to look at those who attempted to deflect/stall the Godfather bandwagon. And we have:

This makes very little sense. Can people please explain why foilist/AGM is suddenly not a good lynch anymore? I'm very suspicious of all these sudden wagon hops.

I'm going to make the naive assumption that he's reading through and making an amazingly revealing mind-bogglingly good post RIGHT NOW. Should I be proven wrong yet again, I'll hammer tommorrow afternoon.

As for my opinion on the matter.. I just hope you're right. I don't have a huge problem with this lynch - I think there are scummier players in the game but I have no issue with the logic of the lynch; there is a legit, unanswered case on muffin out there and the massive inactivity of Sociopath is definitely questionable at best.

I would definitely hammer at this point but will wait for Socio to respond first. My read-through of Muffin didn't change my mind.

... which ties nicely to ...

FinalVote Count:
foilist13 (2) cruelty, archaebob
SocioPath (7) Papa Zito, PhaerieM, Sanjay, SpyreX, MordyS, foilist13, AlmasterGM

Not Voting (3) SocioPath, peanutman, Gammagooey

cruelty and archaebob remained on foilist13, and we had peanutman and Gammagooey off either wagon. I'd say we have at least one scum among these four.

Special mention:

Unvote. Vote: SocioPath.

Worst hammer ever. SocioPath wasn't going to get away so this is a possible mercy killing. Also AGM is still alive, lol.

With all this said, plus stuff that happened yesterday, here's where I sit.


cruelty
AGM
archaebob
Gammagooey
peanutman

[Sanjay]

I'm with PhaerieM. peanutman may have stalled the wagon by not immediately jumping on it, but he also asked for a PhaerieM prod.

What's the logic for scum to say "Oh, people are trying to form up a bandwagon on my the godfather. Why don't I try and call this to the attention of the one player who would be upset with the lynch of anyone else?"

If it was a bus, why bus in a way that gives you none of the credit for busing?

peanutman just reacted kind of scummishly to the pressure that was just put on him, so it kind of pains me to do this, but

Unvote

I had actually noticed the prod before PhaerieM had posted, but I figured I'd keep my vote on for a little while to see who jumped on.

As far as where the scum probably are, I agree with Papa Zito's list 100%.

[peanutman]

Getting back to PharieM's 852, when I prodded her, it was because I was not happy with our two options of the day and, seeing with PZ's vote that another option was possible, I wanted to explore that, and get away from the Bob-lead tunneling of just two players. Although my re-read made me comfortable with a Muffin/Socio lynch, I still wanted to hear from him and so wasn't willing to hammer just yet. I think it's somewhat lucky we hit the Godfather, and I don't claim to have orchestrated the godfather lynch, however I do believe I was key in widening the town's scope.

Sanjay & MordyS, can you please post a case against me, in light of the recent developments, if I am still scummy so I can address it? Especially if you want me lynched, it might be best to let the town know clearly why.

@Gammagooey, my opinion of foilist hasn't really changed. I still don't feel he is one of the scummiest though he clearly has made mistakes. Will be interesting to see how he plays now that there isn't as much pressure on him at the moment though.

peanutman just reacted kind of scummishly to the pressure that was just put on him, so it kind of pains me to do this, but Unvote

I don't understand how you can qualify your recent moves as pressure as you simply voted for me with no stated reasons (assuming it was obvious to everyone why I was scummiest). Are you implying that asking for explanations on votes/suspicions is scummy, yet repeatedly refusing to provide them is pro-town play?

[Papa Zito]

Yeah, PhaerieM's defense makes a lot of sense, which is why Peanut is at the bottom of my list. Gammagooey had basically the same reaction, so he's down there as well. Incidentally this is another problem with ABM's hammer - We were hoping to see

something

out of SocioPath before deadline, and he prevented this from happening, completely without warning.

Archaebob and cruelty, however, both clung stubbornly to the Foilist wagon.

Actually, let me get the ball rolling here.

vote: cruelty

[AlmasterGM]

I want to hear who cruelty wants to lynch today. From cruelty. And I want the post to be offense, not defense or pointless comments.

[foilist13]

Hmm, I agree with Almaster on this one, but I also want to hear from Archaebob.

[PhaerieM]

Yeah, PhaerieM's defense makes a lot of sense, which is why Peanut is at the bottom of my list. Gammagooey had basically the same reaction, so he's down there as well.

Actually, didn't Gamma have the *opposite* reaction? He came on & for several posts argued with you back and forth that this was a stupid idea, and there's no way there'll be enough people who switch in time to lynch Socio. How did he push forward the lynch?

Also, does anyone have any insight into possible reasons why spyrex was killed?

(btw, spyrex, we'll miss you!! Your posts were quite giggle-worthy, and seemed to be right on a lot of the time)

I know he was one of the ones on the quick socio wagon, but not one of the first few, and he kept saying how everyone on the socio wagon had to be town (lumping himself in with that), which was making me slightly suspicious of him. He just doesn't seem like the best NK out of the more 'confirmed town' people that came out of yesterday. I guess they were maybe too scared to NK me or Papa Zito for fear of doc protection? If so, good! Let's keep it that way!! But I was wondering if you guys thought there was any more info to be gained from spyrex's lynch than just fear of doc protection on others.

Response to archaebob will be in a separate post. lol.

[Gammagooey]

Yeah, I was pretty much a non-contributor to the Sociopath lynch, the only part I had a part in was saying I would hammer if he didn't post by the next day.

At the time of Papa's posting his vote for Socio it read very similar to peanutman's vote on archae to me: votes that I thought weren't going to have any effect on the lynch and were in my opinion more likely to be a dodge for giving opinions on foilist and Almaster to avoid any repercussions of speaking out for one lynch or the other.

By the time I got back on that day, Sociopath had gone from Papa's sole vote to one vote away from the lynch. I was obviously wrong about Papa's vote being useless, so I stated my opinion on Socio vs. foilist, and was waiting for Socio to post any defense or claim he might have had when Almaster hammered.

Cruelty and peanut, I'd still like to see your opinions on each other, and cruelty your opinion on foilist with the info from Socio's flip would be good too.

[foilist13]

In the beginning of the game MordyS said something about him being a very strong player by reputation, so maybe that had something to do with it. Also I think we can take from that that he was probably right about his town list. If I were scum I would not be quick to kill someone likely to defend me.

[Papa Zito]

[Actually, didn't Gamma have the *opposite* reaction? He came on & for several posts argued with you back and forth that this was a stupid idea, and there's no way there'll be enough people who switch in time to lynch Socio. How did he push forward the lynch?

The way I saw it, he unvoted rather like peanut did, then pressured me to figure out what I was doing. I don't really see any issues with him scumhunting in that situation and tryiing to test motivations.

Also, does anyone have any insight into possible reasons why spyrex was killed?

I have a theory but I don't know if it's wise to share at this point.

[Sanjay]

A lot of players came off looking pretty pro-town after the Sociopath lynch. I have my own theory of why SpyreX was killed instead of some other people, but it's not like killing SpyreX was so out of the ordinary that it is worth thinking over much.

[Benmage]

Vote Count:
cruelty (1) Papa Zito

Not Voting:
archaebob, peanutman, cruelty, PharieM, Sanjay, MordyS, foilist13, Gammagoey, AlmasterGM

Moar Blood

You guys do know you dont have to wait till the deadline to lynch someone but seeing how successful it was, you do you.

[cruelty]

Archaebob and cruelty, however, both clung stubbornly to the Foilist wagon.

o no :'(


AGM - who do I want lynched? You. I don't believe your claim, I don't like your wishy washy voting (especially at the end of yesterday). I think your play is horribly opportunistic and I think that you've lied on a few occasions (specifically re: "that" post). You also tried to push a case on me based on your misrepresentation of something I said (least costly mislynch). I don't like misrepresentation.

I also still have a lingering doubt over archaebob - I get the impression that his most recent post was an attempt to avoid an obvious scum response to what was a fairly significant wagon shift onto scumbob's buddy. It's hard to articulate precisely, but little things like this (two examples of several from that post)

Think about it from my perspective.

and this

What the hell am I supposed to make of this exactly?

just don't sit quite right. It's entirely subjective I guess, but it feels like a subtle appeal to think of him almost as a victim. That, and I have issues with one player controlling the town - although it looks as though there's been a general power shift as of the end of yesterday I'm not convinced he'll sit back and accept that. I think that political capital is a big issue for him (see his numerous posts re: his town cred etc), and I think that it's constantly at the forefront of his mind. This I'd associate with a mafia frame of mind - the more town cred you have, the greater your ability to influence the voting.

I'm going to bed now, I'll have more tomorrow I think. Specifically, I'll address foilist and peanut.

[AlmasterGM]

AGM - who do I want lynched? You. I don't believe your claim, I don't like your wishy washy voting (especially at the end of yesterday). I think your play is horribly opportunistic and I think that you've lied on a few occasions (specifically re: "that" post). You also tried to push a case on me based on your misrepresentation of something I said (least costly mislynch). I don't like misrepresentation.

First, why the giant turnaround since our argument yesterday when you posted (with the bold being part of the original quote, btw):

re: 1, 2 and 3. I think you are suspicious.

I do not want you lynched today.

I have said why, and I'll say it again. I think we will gain more information from foilist's lynch (with regards to his interactions with peanut, archaebob and yourself) than we will from lynching you. This is why I'm opposed to your lynch today.

Foilist is still alive. So are peanut, archaebob, and myself. Please explain what has changed between then and now (hint: this means that you can't quote posts from before your "I don't want to lynch you" post as evidence, because those wouldn't be new developments).

Second, if anything is opportunistic, it's your vote on me. You've done nothing in terms of evaluation or scumhunting like everyone else wants you to and are simply jumping on the hate-AGM-wagon from yesterday. This might be passible, except you spent all of yesterday saying how you didn't want me lynched and wanted to lynch foilist. You have convinently set yourself up this entire game so you minimize commitment and always appear on the obv-wagon.

Vote: cruelty

[Papa Zito]

Drunk mod is lulz.

Cruelty, your 871 isn't very impressive. We've now had two flips, two or three major wagons, 20 cases, and a partridge in a pear tree. I'd like for you to analyze all these things (especially the partridge) and give us your opinion on what these events mean. The time to play cards close to the chest is over and that ^^^ seems to be in that vein.

Same to you, archaebob. Aside from the cards bit.

[Sanjay]

Huh, guess I wasn't around for the end of the day.

AGM's last 4 posts have contained 1 inane sentence and 3 unexplained votes, he's been scummy all day and HE gets to hammer? Sigh.

cruelty, could you explain your thinking behind this post? Why did you feel AlmasterGM was somehow unworthy to hammer an unknown alignment lurker?

As I recall, you weren't even that enthusiastic about the lynch.