Mini 885 - Boom, Game Gutshot/Abandoned by Mod!

[hitogoroshi]

/confirm

[hitogoroshi]

Two players who joined two days ago? Interesting. I'm an age discriminating bastard so I'm gonna go ahead and

vote: Thebuttonmen.

[hitogoroshi]

Question for hitogoroshi based on your comment I'm curious how important you feel being able to get a meta feel on someone?

Am I correct in translating this as, "I am an alt can I come out of the closet?"

And same goes for you 5cvm.

[hitogoroshi]

Not at all, it was more of wondering if you were just random voting or that you chose to focus on that for a reason.

It was a random vote. (Well, not a 'random' vote, but a threat-less one in the spirit of RVS.) Just because some people are taking the RVS way too seriously doesn't mean I have to.

[hitogoroshi]

Okay anyone who is taking 5cvm's claims at face value needs to learn a bit of critical thinking, here. :p

Although, 5cvm, I really don't think you're doing anything productive. I'm sure you feel badass by flustering people but quite frankly you're just finding out who is calm and who isn't calm, and that doesn't have a whole lot to do with alignment. Paranoia may be a scumtell, but that can't really work until there's enough post history that scum can have the worry that maybe they slipped somewhere and you know exactly where. I don't think anyone here is so easily thrown off their game that they think you've read their role PM and know they are scum, or something.

[hitogoroshi]

This is just garbage. It's pretty unlikely we have a jester; my two cents is that 5cvm is probably a townie who thinks he has some super l33t way of catching scum by acting like a jackass out of the starting gate. (And that's he's an alt because he doesn't want this general wankery tied to his normal account.) At any rate this babble is just stopping us from entering the game before we decide whether or not to put the gibbering loon out of his misery.

The fatalistic and cynical side of me thinks that 5cvm is going to triumphantly reveal his 'plan' at L-1 and just waste our time until then, but the optimistic part of me has to say - 5cvm, this is a load of anti-town bollocks and stop it.

[hitogoroshi]

I think it's important to distinguish between alignment and action. A townie can act anti-town, and this is I think what 5cvm is doing. As I said before (which is more or less what rite also just said right above me) I think 5cvm is just some townie who thinks they are OMG SO EPIC for pulling A SUPER L33T GAMBIT!!! But regardless of this he is derailing the whole game and I'm about two more pages of drivel away from voting him just so he shuts up.

[hitogoroshi]

Sorry about the absence; I had a car ride from Lincoln, Nebraska to the Twin Cities yesterday. By the time I arrived I was in no condition to make a coherent post. However, I do have internet and I will be active over break here.

I think 5cvm is a townie screwing around because there's really no incentive to scum to act as he is and I'm inclined to be very skeptical of initial jester claims. But as squirrel says, rightly, a townie or scum playing this way look more or less similar and so while I'm inclined to think 5cvm is a townie I also know that we can't really turn this into an acceptable way to play.

@Everyone else: You are all over reacting. I only skimmed your walls to text but I am sure that such long posts are completely unnecessary on page 6. I am playing a 25 person game right now and it works just fine with a 750 wc limit. Please try to tone it down, mkay?

[hitogoroshi]

Confid's got a good point and you're avoiding it. You said you thought out of Chibo/Confid you found chibo more suspicious, but why the dichotomy? Why is it only between those two players?

[hitogoroshi]

Sorry about that, guys, my time is kinda limited here and my large game is cresting at the same time so I'm being demanded everywhere. I should have something today, and if you want to catch me on AIM and find some sources for my biodiversity paper I'll have something for sure today .

[hitogoroshi]

Hey, you guys can help me research it! Nothing wrong with that!

[hitogoroshi]

Wow, I've really been out of it this game, haven't I? My random vote is still there.

unvote

.

I like Confid and Poirot because their posts are very readable. Xvart, a common trick is to link to the post with a hyperlink rather than quoting something pick. Pruning your responses can't hurt either.

Seregil, I'm starting to think you're deliberately misinterpreting Confid's point. You have one more chance to understand why setting up dichotomies is scummy, especially when your reasoning is "those two didn't like xvart's posts."

5cvm is apparently hell-bent on being anti-town this whole game. Maybe he's jester, maybe he's an idiot scum, or even dumber town. Regardless nothing helpful is ever going to come out of that player slot and I don't see why we're okay with that. Let's bring this retarded drama to it's cross-eyed, drooling, impotent climax.

vote: 5cvm

. I don't have too much of a read on the others but that is literally irrelevant. If we don't lynch someone so brazenly anti-town our options are a.) do it later or b.) keep him around forever. a.) is pointless - we're less likely to have good scumreads now than later - and b.) is stupid for a plethora of reasons.

[hitogoroshi]

Why are we not voting 5cvm. To everyone not voting 5cvm: What are you waiting for, exactly?

[hitogoroshi]

Humble, the thing is that 5cvm has made it abundantly clear he never intends to offer content. I don't want to keep a player like that until the endgame; he will be an active detriment to town. And the time to do a lynch like that is now, because we'll have more content D2 to work off of to pick our lynch (a nk and more posts, as well as knowledge of 5cvm's flip.) Do you really intend to leave him around the entire game? Do you really want to say, "Congratulations, 5cvm, you are such a terrible player we're going to let you live despite the fact you will never be a productive member of this game!"

As such, I'm keen to string up him so we can move on to more concrete matters. There is a such thing as 'too much content' and 'too long of a day', and the fact is D1 is one prone to mislynches because there is a lot of speculation and not much real information. It's a perfect day to policy lynch, because we don't NEED to know about everyone else: we know 5cvm is going to play anti-town, so we can murder him alignment be damned. It really is that simple.

[hitogoroshi]

Oh, is the standard how nice our posts are, and not whether or not they address anything in the game at all? In that case I'm going to stop posting content and just post a picture of a kitten once a day. Town, please ignore my entire lack of participation and let me live for the entire game unmolested, because hey, there's NO WAY scum would try to get away with that sort of thing, right?

[hitogoroshi]

@Hitorogoshi, also again:

What happened to your ultimatum to Seregil? Are you satisfied with his response?

[hitogoroshi]

Why are we not voting 5cvm. To everyone not voting 5cvm: What are you waiting for, exactly?

Because I don't think he is scum at the moment.

Read 215 again. Doesn't matter if he's scum or not. He's not going to post content, so he has to die. No argument, no exceptions. This is a play style anybody, scum or town, could do without ever revealing anything, so if someone does it you murder them.

Now that (I hope) the point of the cat posts has been made let me address this point:

@Hitogoroshi

:
Was post Seregil's response satisfactory? You gave him an ultimatum and then ignored him.

More or less. I don't honestly think he was creating a dichotomy, but when he denied that it was scummy rather than denying he had done so it set me off. Dichotomies are scummy and I wanted to make sure that point got through.

How is he detrimental to the game? Just ignore his posts. How will his flip give us info? I can't see one possible way some crazy person like this would give us an informative flip. Lets say what if he does flip scum, what would be your next move? He's practically pointed the finger at all of us, its not like we can say, oh crap that means he does know who scum is and we can target one of them, cause hes targeted like 11 ppl lolz.

It is seeming like your using his annoyance to push for a lynch on someone that rly shouldnt be lynched right now.

Firstly, please use all the letters in words like 'really' and 'people', and not just most of them. That may be okay in #scumchat but you can take the time on a forum to write something without that sort of thing.

And secondly, this is completely wrong. 'How is he detrimental? Just ignore his posts'. Think about this for two seconds. Are you saying that if someone ISN'T interacting with others, we leave them alone? Because scum could just make sure to never post anything useful and, by this twisted, backwards logic, never be lynched - which is EXACTLY what you are proposing with 5cvm. That's just asinine.

So let me ask you, why wouldn't you vote no lynch since your practically asking someone from the town to be killed.

Lets work out the numbers for this one. Assuming we always mislynch if we lynch and there is always a nk:

• CASE 1. 2 scum, no lynch d1. 11/12. 9/12. 7/12. 5/12, LYLO on d5.
  
  
• CASE 2. 2 scum, misylnch d1. 10/12. 8/12. 6/12, LYLO d4 (or maybe d5, but I think under Boxman's majority lynch rules if the scum quick-paired on someone they'd win.)
  
  
• CASE 3. 3 scum, no lynch d1. 11/12. 9/12. 7/12, LYLO on d4.
  
  
• CASE 4. 3 scum, mislynch d1. 10/12, 8/12, LYLO d3 (again, could be d4 depending on the specifics of the majority lynch rules.)

So with 2 scum we get four mislynches either way. We only get two (!) mislynches either way with three scum. No-lynch is an option but I'd prefer to have that one sitting in our pockets in case we don't get our act together before a deadline on a later day.

I can't believe I have to re-make this point, but the fact that it's passed most of you by worries me. 5cvm is being completely anti-town. I don't care what you think about what he 'really' is. Either defend his actions as helpful to the town, or lynch him. Suggesting that we ignore him the whole game is completely out of the question.

[hitogoroshi]

Since then both xvart and I have asked him to say what he thinks the method to 5cvm's madness is, and we have gotten this response:

I could explain what I think his posts mean, but then again I could be completely wrong because I'm not him.

I think hes just reacting to people reacting to his playstyle, which is why he finds some people (like hito) scummy.

Then again I'm not him, and you would probably be better off asking him what he means.

Which is not helpful at all. Honestly, if Gorrilaz doesn't start following through on his claim in his next couple of posts I'm voting him.

Wrong. If you can't find a method to 5cvm's madness and gorrilaz doesn't provide one, you lynch 5cvm for methodless madness. THEN, if he flips scum, you can perhaps follow this line of inquiry D2. But we don't do it in reverse (you are so crazy that I'm voting some other player for not explaining why you are helpful, but you keep shining on, you crazy diamond).

[hitogoroshi]

I think it goes without saying that no one should hammer here. Time to claim, 5cvm.

[hitogoroshi]

Err, wait, with a majority it's SEVEN to lynch, isn't it? We need more 5cvm votes. And also I don't know why I bothered to ask him to claim since he's just going to say scum.

[hitogoroshi]

Okay, no, I think you guys are missing the point. Let me explain this one more time:

I don't care whether or not 5cvm is scum.

Let's imagine a hypothetical: let's say the game started with the mod saying "This player will never post, ever, and will never be replaced out." Now, this isn't a scumtell in any way. But is there any doubt as to what the optimal play would be? We would lynch that player, day one. We have the weakest scum reads, and that slot will never contribute anything.

Now imagine that hypothetical with one difference: it is not the mod but the player who says "Hey, I'm never going to post, ever", and the only posts they make are affirmation that they will never actually post content. Guess what? You don't need to imagine anything, because this is in fact the situation we are in, and the answer is the same as it is in the first hypothetical.

I haven't heard anyone say 5cvm is doing anything helpful for town. But people seem hesitant to lynch because they're not sure it's a scumtell. The thing you have to understand is that it doesn't matter. This is the ultimatum: either defend 5cvm's actions as helpful to the town, or vote him. You cannot say, "He's not helping the town but I want to keep him alive anyway," as so many of you seem keen to do. I'm looking at you, Chibo.

As the saying goes: how do you make sure you don't have a lurker to deal with in LYLO? Lynch them before.

[hitogoroshi]

Thank you to Humble 274 for being I believe the first post that actually understands what justifications could prevent a policy lynch. That being said, I disagree that you could get something out of that player slot. Once again, I'm gonna want to see evidence that he could do anything pro-town, ever.

With that said, I am finding Evilgorrilaz more and more scummy, with his sudden defense of 5cvm and lack of credible explanation for his defense. It is almost like he knows 5cvm is town and is trying to look like he is defending him now when his possible inevitable lynch is just around the corner.

This is a perfect crystallized example of why I want to policy lynch D1. Why play this guesswork? You agree that we want someone to deal with 5cvm, but why not us, right now? That would be an equally good way of testing the 5cvm<--->Gorrilaz connection. :p

Alright here's my view on the current situation, Policy lynching D1 really limits the information we have going into D2 (That's Bad), Ignoring scumtells / not pressuring scummy reads to vote for someone you find annoying isn't even bad scum hunting, it's not scum hunting (That's Bad).

In conclusion, you should all vote Arafan (That's Good)

So button, tell me, are we:

1.) Leaving 5cvm alive forever and ever
2.) Policy lynching him on a later day?

Policy lynching doesn't give us as much information. But it

has to be done

: that is why policy lynching is a concept that exists. D1 is the day when we're least likely to nail scumbags on evidence anyway, so D1 is the day to policy lynch. For example, you said to Brosius, "You identified scumtells and then went for a policy lynch?" That's what we SHOULD be doing: because we'll have more posts to look for scum reads in D2 but 5cvm will never contribute less than he already is.

I agree, it's better to hunt off of evidence. But if 5cvm is never going to give us evidence, it's better for us to lynch him now, rather than going for it on, say, D3, when we have so much more ammunition to use against scum.

[hitogoroshi]

EBWOP: That would be button 282, not 2822. I hope this game does not go on that long :/.

[hitogoroshi]

Most of the suspicion on gorrilaz is based on the fact that he apparently likes 5cvm's play but has yet to defend his reasoning. But that's a lot of what-if that will condense into something far more tangible when 5cvm flips.

[hitogoroshi]

We don't have to lynch him later, when we have a better idea who is scummy.

[hitogoroshi]

Why doesn't this "better idea of who is scummy" extend to 5cvm?

Because everyone else is actually posting content. 5cvm is not. If you want to know what you will think of 5cvm on D3, just imagine him saying "LAWLZ I AM SCUM WITH BUTTON AND XVART AND ALSO HITO IS INFORMED SK" for two days.

And squirrel, are you seriously suggesting that your opinion on gorrilaz's support-without-defense on 5cvm won't be influenced by the knowledge of 5cvm's flip? Believe me when I say that killing 5cvm will be the one and only time we get information from that slot.

[hitogoroshi]

5cvms opinion has changed over the course of the game and he's slowly becoming more coherent, I expect that trend to continue to a point. On the other hand I have a very strong scum read today.

I'd rather lynch somebody I'm 75% on day 1 then lynch someone I'm 15-20% on day 1. Especially when that 15-20% could change quite a bit by day 3

wait a golly gosh darned minute. 75%? Isn't your main point on Aran that he suggested we ignore 5cvm and then later changed his mind? Because that would just be a newbtell,

unless

you're postulating a 5cvm/aran scumteam. In which case, let's lynch 5cvm today and if he flips scum we can get aran tomorrow <3.

And squirrel, ask xvart on that one. I quite frankly don't see his connection as especially damning but that was the main reason xvart gave so that was the one I responsed to.

[hitogoroshi]

:3 so xvart, are you also postulating gorrilaz-scum based off of something that would only make sense if he was scum with 5cvm? because I have this fantastic idea about how we could go about checking that.

[hitogoroshi]

It's not helping town, but guess what - it's not hurting us.

Guess what: if he's not helping town, he's hurting us. And more importantly, you seem to forget that 5cvm willingly chose his own playstyle. You have a player who you agree is not helping the town and you want to keep them alive. This boggles my mind.

Repeating another point I've made a thousand times, while we are getting information from the 5cvm lynch, I don't want him lynched because he's giving the most information. I want him lynched because he's not helping the town (which everyone agrees with) and will continue not helping the town forever (which I believe Button argued against, but I'm going to need to see serious evidence beyond '5cvm began refering to players beyond the three on his "scumlist"' to believe that one). How ****ing asinine is it that you want to lynch ARAN first for that one? 5cvm is being willfully anti-town. Think about those words. He is. deliberately. acting against. the best interests. of the town. And if you agree with this why-oh-why do you think we need to LEARN anything more?

Scott has compacted my crusade into a nice little tl;dr. thank you scott.

[hitogoroshi]

Ooh, I really like hercule-town now.

I'd like to point out that I'm not going for a 5cvm to try to out other people. I was pointing out that both the cases on Aran and Evilgorrilaz simply don't work, logically, unless they are scumbuddies with 5cvm. Aran wanting to not lynch 5cvm and then changing his mind is not scummy, UNLESS 5cvm is his scumbuddy. Gorrliaz thinking 5cvm is town with no particular defense isn't inherently scummy, UNLESS 5cvm is his scumbuddy. I don't believe in those scumteams, but the fact remains that the main scum reads people are using ARE dependent on 5cvm scumteams. I'm not saying I think those reads are convincing!

And for the record I can totally understand where Scott is coming from. He just replaced in, it's kind of disorienting, and here is a player who needs to be lynched - it's an easy move to take, and it's what I would do in his situation regardless of role. It's hard to be certain about your scum reads replacing in d1, but it's pretty easy to understand the justification for a policy lynch, so while hopping on the policy wagon is an easy move for scum it's also a justified move for town.

But all the same, while I am not moving my vote from 5cvm today, I can still look at the other players. One thing I don't like about gorillaz is that his ISO 10 clearly shows he understands the reasoning behind a D1 policy lynch. In that case, yeah, he needs to do a fair bit of explaining because he's arguing the case that 5cvm is pro town, something that is pretty damn ridiculous. But as I said before, I can't think of any situation wherein Gorrilaz is scum, 5cvm is town, and this is a scumtell. What possible reason would a scum have to support a policy lynch on a townie, and then change their mind without warning? I suppose you could make the argument that Gorrilaz was suddenly trying to not be on a mislynch wagon, but tbh that's such a newb-scum move we can not follow it and be confident that Gorrilaz-scum will give up the game a different way D2 or something.

As for Aran, again, I dare anyone to come up with an interpretation where Aran is scum and 5cvm is town. Not every illogical thing is a scumtell, and to say 'X doesn't make sense, ergo the player who said it is scum' is just lazy.

[hitogoroshi]

D1 is Read-day... We read individuals. Now, we must lynch the individual wich we think is more probably scum but never allow people to remain a complete null tell for the whole day.

Okay sweet, so you're gonna lynch 5cvm with me after all!

And 5cvm:

But isn't that good reason that Gorrilaz is town?

Nope! Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. What I'm saying is that the reasons people are offering to suspect Gorrilaz (and Aran) as scum are contingent on you being scum, not by any stretch that gorrilaz that is town.

[hitogoroshi]

Two point I feel need to be said, first off

@Hito

I was voting Arafan long before he voted 5cvm, My thinking he is scum has nothing to do with 5cvm, please stop trying to say it does.

Nothing to do with 5cvm. Really.

@Aranfan Eliminating someone as a possible scum because they are too scummy to be scum is a terrible idea! Sigh even if there was a a Jester; playing as a Jester is basically playing like scum (given that a jester wants to be lynched, thus they emulate scum). So if there was a jester there should be no way to tell their posts apart from scums. Thus to assume there's a jester and ignore scummy posts for being to scummy means you also ignore scum tells from the mafia.

That was about 5cvm.

MegaSuperConfirmUltraVote: Aranfan

Wow.... Just wow... In response to your statements, I have to ask you If being overtly scummy is a good way to not get lynched why would scum not be overt? Why would jesters want to be overt?

For reference the statement in question was:

@

Aranfan

Eliminating someone as a possible scum because they are too scummy to be scum is a terrible idea! Sigh even if there was a a Jester; playing as a Jester is basically playing like scum (given that a jester wants to be lynched, thus they emulate scum). So if there was a jester there should be no way to tell their posts apart from scums. Thus to assume there's a jester and ignore scummy posts for being to scummy means you also ignore scum tells from the mafia.

Except that Scum are trying to act like town so as to not get lynched. That means Jesters will be overt, while Scum will be covert. 5cvm is clearly and obviously a Jester, we can thus move on to hunting the real scum.

Although the question occurs as to who gets first place if the Jester lynched as the final anti-town faction.

This is all 100% about 5cvm.

@ Arafan you want to lynch a role who is a null tell (due to never having posted) rather then scum hunt. Every time you post you seem more scummy....

Okay, here is one (1) point about Aran that is not related to 5cvm.

Gorrilla is hitting my scumdar for saying that he can make sense of what 5cvm posts but refusing to share this insight with anyone else.

Exageration without supporting quote much?

You voted for 5cvm (a safe vote, a lot of people were in on that) and a policy lynch on someone who didn't even post. Yet you won't vote those you find suspicious.....

And here's one more.

So without 5cvm your case on Aran is that he's going for the policy lynch d1. On the lurker, I agree, that's an anti-town thing to do, and I'll keep that one in mind. But as I previously said, I disagree strongly with the idea that we should go for scum d1 and have to policy lynch later when it makes so much sense in the other order. I wouldn't call the second point a scumtell.

--

Secondly I think it's obvious I was correct in that 5cvm is becoming more useful over time. So Hito's "reason" for pushing the 5cvm vote is now clearly wrong, so Hito how about we lynch some scum now rather then continuing this rabid push for a policy lynch.

You seem to be forgetting that

5cvm is and always has been claiming scum

. The fact that he is now talking about actual mafia theory does not mean he is contributing to the game at hand. He is not scumhunting because he will simply 'call out his scumbuddies' (and that I'm the informed sk, natch) when asked. The fact that he has gone from imbecilic to merely worthless is of no relevance. He is claiming scum and not scumhunting; that is not being useful to the town and the fact that he is 'more useful' because now he is having coherent thoughts means nothing. If you want to talk about mafia theory, there's a forum for that, but to be useful in the game you have to hunt scum. 5cvm (1) has claimed scum and (2) is not going to hunt scum. How exactly am I clearly wrong for voting him?

[hitogoroshi]

@ Hito

None of those points have anything at all, whatsoever do with 5cvm's alignment, if he flips town or scum all of those points still stand.

But that's just it. They're illogical, yes, but what's to say that it wasn't the first points that were illogical and then he changed his mind? Not every mistake is a scumtell, and I don't see any reason why this change would be inherently scummy. If 5cvm was a townie and Aran was scum, why would he say, "Guys don't lynch 5cvm! Wait, nevermind, lynch him!" It makes a sort of sense if they are scumbuddies (not too much, but some), but absolutely none with Aran-scum, 5cvm-town.

Hito - based on what has transpired so far today, what will be your next move tomorrow should 5cvm flip scum? What if he flips town?

Honestly we aren't getting too much information off of the 5cvm flip (though as I said before, more than nothing.) Mostly I'm looking forward to the Evilgorrilaz and Aran speculation having one less what-if in them. But there aren't really many moves that flow organically from either of 5cvm's flips. It'll depend a good deal on the nk, as well.

(Though I change my mind on this slightly in my response to Scott's post.)

Yes 5cvm claimed scum. But anyone can refer to themselves as scum. Or rather, I can say that I am town and EVERYONE ELSE IS SCUM because I know I am the only 100% guaranteed townie (with the exception of masons, cop, etc.) When I say everyone else is scum, does that mean I truly believe that everyone is scum? Of course not because then the game would be imbalanced. 5cvm might just like saying he is scum.

And I don't see how 5cvm is not scumhunting. For instance, when confidanon and Arafan jump on his wagon, he finds both scummy, but not as scummy as his "scumbuddies and sk" (At least that is what it seems to be indicating, 5cvm can correct me if I am wrong on that).

I guess my main suspicions are hitogoroshi, ConfidAnon, Aranfan, Scott Brosius (aka everyone on 5cvm wagon). Right now I feel people are only pushing 5cvm's wagon because he is "anti-town" which I wholeheartedly disagree with.

This is worthless. 'He may just like saying he's scum'?? And hey, I might like never ever posting, but that doesn't make it a townie thing to do.

Hell, let's look at that second paragraph again.

And I don't see how 5cvm is not scumhunting. For instance, when confidanon and Arafan jump on his wagon, he finds both scummy, but not as scummy as his "scumbuddies and sk" (At least that is what it seems to be indicating, 5cvm can correct me if I am wrong on that).

This. What is this. You have more posts than I do on mafiascum, there is no excuse for this. His defense as pro-town is 'NOT ONLY has he been randomly accusing people from the outset, but he ALSO accuses people who attack him! What a bastion of towniehood, that 5cvm.'

If 5cvm flips town (and EG as scum knows that 5cvm is not town) he can get town points since he defending 5cvm, and go after people on the wagon. It is the extreme confidence that he has speaking of 5cvm as if he is town that disturbs me. I think he has more information than the rest of us.

I wanted to disagree with this at first. I think that with the dynamics of this game the 'safe spot' is to quote me and snuggle up on the 5cvm wagon (so basicially doing exactly what Confid is doing).

But after his newest post I'm not so sure. It boggles the mind and defies explanation. And if pressed, one of the only interpretations I can think of that makes a modicum of sense is that EG is trying to get townie cred by defending 5cvm but, since 5cvm has no redeeming qualities, had to do his best to make them up. Sure, eg's post is wacky as all hell, but what would your post defending 5cvm as pro-town look like?

If 5cvm flips town I will be very amenable to a gorrilaz lynch tomorrow. While I normally really, really don't like trying to setting up lynches that are dependent on someone flipping town, I can appreciate where you are coming from here. But for now, Scott, I'd appreciate it if you put your vote back. Once again, we have created a situation where your scumtell is dependent on 5cvm's alignment, and once again, there's no sense doing this in reverse order (especially since it's a one-directional relationship - gorrillaz scum doesn't make 5cvm confirmed town).

[hitogoroshi]

gosh xvart, you're not supposed to give ME presents on your birthday~

[hitogoroshi]

This is an replacement and v/la filled adventure of a game. FWIW this is my finals week as well but I only have two of them because I ended up with a lot of seminar classes this semester, so it shouldn't lead to any participation drop on my part.

[hitogoroshi]

Oh, also, a

vote count

would be pretty cool whenever you're next in thread, Boxman.

[hitogoroshi]

Moderation is weighing both sides of the argument. Your side of the argument is 'I am scum'. You'll forgive me for being able to make my decision fairly quickly.

[hitogoroshi]

It's not absurd at all. I thought you guys had understood the policy lynch thing, but since xvart and chibo made the same mistake again I'm going to repeat myself yet again.

5cvm is anti-town.

We have two options:

a.) Decide that he has acted so anti-town we may as well treat him as confirmed town for the rest of the game. This is mind-numbingly stupid and I hope no one seriously had this line of thought. No, instead, you guys are apparently in camp two:

b.) lynch him later. But when? What day are we going to say, 'Alright, we're abandoning scum reads and lynching 5cvm'? I don't think you guys realize that we are never going to get a scum read on 5cvm, because he is never going to offer more information than he is now. What day should be lynch him? (spoiler alert: it's day one.)

I think in my haste to point out that a policy lynch works regardless of alignment you guys got it in your head that 5cvm is almost certainly town, or something. That's not true. With the username '5cvm' and the fact that his playstyle is probably the reason he is an alt freshly minted, it's probably a null tell. He is not, not, not, 'so scummy he must be town.' We don't know his alignment, and we are going to find out today when he lynch him.

xvart, your action in particular worries me.

Instead of lynching 5cvm to see if Evilgorillaz is scum, why don't we lynch Evilgorillaz to get more information on 5cvm? I think this is a much more pro-town play because Evilgorillaz is acting scummy while 5cvm has acted anti-town. I'd rather lynch the scum.

5cvm is trying to give us as little information as possible. Why oh why should we bend over backwards trying to figure out his alignment when he is working so hard not to tell us? What makes you so sure we are lynching a townie, anyway?

[hitogoroshi]

Also: yes, Scott is completely taking the easy lynch. But it's worth pointing out way. The reason that 5cvm is so righteously deserving of a lynch that he doesn't need to make any sort of case. This isn't an inherent problem of Scott's, and yet you guys seem to think that he must be scum because he didn't go for some new target out of the blue. Yes, I'm certainly going to watch him really closely day two because I'm not getting much info on him day one. But you really need to remember that sometimes the easy lynch targets are easy targets because they

really, really need to be lynched

. Going for obscure targets isn't a town tell; going for scummy or anti-town players is a town tell.

[hitogoroshi]

EBWOP: Worth pointing out *why, rather.

[hitogoroshi]

Hito - Do you think that if one of Evilgorillaz or 5cvm is scum then the other one is, too? Or do you believe that one is scum and one is town? Or do you not know/care or think it could be any possible combination (town/town, town/scum, or scum/scum)?

5cvm town flip will have me a bit more willing to listen to the idea of gorillaz-scum. 5cvm scum flip would be more or less null to me. Gorrillaz flip doesn't tell me about 5cvm either way (though it does give me an idea on a couple of other players.)

My vote for 5cvm, as I tried to explain, was absurd because in my reasoning I said that I wanted to get more information about Evilgorillaz, but the end result, if Evilgorillaz flips scum, is that I helped lynch a town-aligned individual to get more information about someone I already suspected as being scum. That is unacceptable in my book, and thus I unvoted.

5cvm may have 'town' in his role PM, but I dare you to say he's working with the town with a straight face. We're lynching an anti-town individual and in the process maybe giving some weight to a scum read. That doesn't sound at all absurd to me.

Hito - how would you feel if 5cvm was lynched and he flipped a town power role?

The same way I'd feel if he flipped vanilla town - disgusted that a townie thought this was a good way to help out the town.

No, going for anti-town players is not a town tell at all. Going for anti-town players could be done just as easily by a mafia, especially since mafia know the person is town and just behaving anti-town; making the perfect mislynch while appearing to scumhunt.

Err, yeah, I made that too simple to contrast with the previous sentence. Going for scummy and anti-town players is a townie ACTION. In this case, you're right, it's closer to a null tell than a town tell (though in this case I'm still willing to give a couple of town points to Scott for walking in understanding the idea of policy lynching; I think scum would want to 'be convinced' a bit more before committing.) But the point still stands that it's not always a townie action to go for hard targets and it's not always a scummy action to go for easy targets.

[hitogoroshi]

Not gonna lie, I also totally forgot you put your vote on EG when I wrote 355, scott.

[hitogoroshi]

5cvm is anti-town.

How? You keep saying this without backing it up.

I don't think you guys realize that we are never going to get a scum read on 5cvm, because he is never going to offer more information than he is now.

Why can't we get a read on 5cvm? You keep bashing away with the idea that he's antitown and unreadable, again without supporting your statement.

I don't back it up because it is really, really obvious. Quite frankly the burden of proof is on you if you want to suggest at all that 5cvm is helpful in any way, or that he will ever act differently than he is now (which is what is necessary to get a read - doing the same thing all game is something any scumbag could pull.)

5cvm is acting so out there you can't tell if he's town or scum yet. At this point it would be better if we scumhunt elsewhere and lynch someone else. You can't get a legit scum read on 5cvm which makes him not a safe target for D1 (D2+ could be a whole other story).

Also, he's not really being anti-town. Sure he's not helping us, but not helping us =/= hurting us so to say. As a metaphor, he's not doing a "bad job," he's just not working at all really.

Why is not getting a scum read make him not a safe target for D1? He's the SAFEST target for d1, because I'll be more certain on my scum reads D2 but it's not like 5cvm will manage to post less nothing than he already is.

And if he's not helping us, a.) he's wasting a player slot and b.) he's clearly not playing to the towns best interest, thus, anti-town.

hitogoroshi... We WONT GET INFO from lynching 5cvm. It would be useful ONLY if he was scum. And he is not. I can read that much from his behaviour. He wouldn't be bold enough to pull such a stunt if scum. I'm sure.

That is a really really stupid thing to be sure of. Are you stating, right now, that you are going to treat 5cvm as confirmed town all game? What magical powers gave you that one, exactly?

And for the record, while I'm happy to lynch 5cvm regardless of his alignment, I'm growing increasingly sure that he probably is scum here. This pattern, of let's ignore him -- wagon building -- wagon dissipating is what I would expect - as scumbuddies bus him before realizing, hey, we'll actually be able to keep this loon alive.

[hitogoroshi]

No, your the one making unsupported accusations the burden of proof is 100% on you. And if it's "really, really obvious" why he's antitown I don't see why thats so hard to answer.

Because the answer - he is claiming scum and has been accusing the same people of being his 'scumbuddies' all game - is so blindingly obvious I kind of figured I didn't have to say it. But, hey if you insist. Why is 5cvm anti-town?

Because he is claiming scum and has been accusing the same people of being his 'scumbuddies' all game!

Now it's your turn. If you want to make it sound like whether or not 5cvm is anti-town is an open question, you have to produce at least some evidence that that is a tenable position to hold. Show me anything pro-town 5cvm has done, ever. I wait with baited breath.

Lynching people that your not getting scum reads on is a terrible game plan. If thats how you play good luck convincing me of things in the future.

Do you know what a policy lynch even is? Are you saying every policy lynch ever is a terrible game plan? Because guess what; policy lynch is defined as "a lynch on someone for reasons other than a scum read". I want to policy lynch 5cvm. Why is that a terrible game plan?

***

Civil that was an ugly ugly wall but after taking the time to drill through it I'm liking your style. You'll forgive me if I miss a specific point - it's easy to lose stuff in your giant pile of a post so you'll have to re-post it at me if you want my opinion on it.

But here are two big points that jump out at me.

The disagreement between you and those defending scvm (and his play! An absolutely inordinate number of players imo!) is interesting. You say the burden of proof is on them, because your position is one of dead-lock pro-town policy. But this situation we have is a little unique. And at this point, I can't say I like your commitment to treating it like a 100% run-of-the-mill policy lynch scenario. And that's where some of the disagreement with you is coming from.

I don't see what's so unique about it without dropping into the WIFOM pit of "SURELY scum would have bussed such a terrible terrible player by now". Unless I'm missing another point?

Another problem I've had with your argument hito, whenever someone says 'look, scvm's doing better' or 'if we wait, he might improve, or he'll grow tired of his own shenanigans and might become productive' etc. (button's been in his corner, in that sense, for the longest I believe), you maintain that he is not going to change his habits ever in this game. Neither side of this hope/argument can be substantiated or really argued, but hito consistently sounds as if he doesn't want that to happen---for scvm to play differently or contribute useful information. And the question there would be, why?

It's not that I don't

want

it - actually, you sum it up best:

Hopefully, if he doesn't get lynched, scvm will succumb to his concience!

If 5cvm said 'HAI GUIZ, JUST KIDDING LAWLZ. I"M GONNA PLAY NOW' would you simply accept it? Would you just say 'sweet, no read on this player d1, blatantly anti-town - but it's cool!' I gave him multiple chances to 'reveal his plan' if he was some sort of townie, but he's stuck to it too long for any 'reversal' to be legitimate and the simple discrete nature of claiming scum means that he can't drift towards being a townie. Or to put it another way - in what way could 5cvm improve from being claimed scum? ("Hey guys, I'm actually only kinda sure I'm scum...?") The only way is to demand a 'do-over', and to ever grant such a request more or less undermines the game.

[hitogoroshi]

Alright hito, but how is that any different from when someone gets replaced?
Isn't that exactly what you do?
Regardless of if you think the person they were replacing was scummy or not?
Which isn't even the case here, scvm's alignment does come down to a lot of WIFOM.

To be honest if 5cvm request replacement and I was mod I would just modkill the slot right then and there. I'm saying that if 5cvm had a 'change of heart', I wouldn't care because he's already done so much to spite the town that a townie could have turned back from.

If someone else replaced into that slot, I suppose I wouldn't lynch them immediately, but they would have to produce a lot of content, fast.

You've made some good arguments for lynching scvm, but I feel it's all you've been doing now.

Because it's the only thing the town should be doing.

Who are you suspicious of, FOR BEING SCUM?

Hmm. The followers, mostly. ISO squirrel, or confid/tommy. Not really much there but fluff. Squirrel in particular asks a lot of questions but doesn't actually post much analysis or anything. This is a pretty significant scumtell in my book. Brosius to a lesser degree - I've given the mitigating factors for him above. (To be fair these should apply to confid, but he was gone for so so long I am loath to give him any sort of pass. It'll be pretty dependent on what Tommy says.)

Given the circumstances, yes I would give scvm a chance at that point.
Would you tell scvm's replacement, 'Sorry, appreciate that you are going to try and play, but the person you replaced was being a complete jack ass, so sorry, you got's to go!' ?

You are taking the hypothetical too far. I'm saying I wouldn't buy a reversal on 5cvm, and this doesn't really apply to that. I would totally say, 'Sorry, appreciate that you are going to try and play, but

you were

being a complete jack ass, so sorry, you got's to go!' ?

Alright, I apologize for overposting. By my computer a lot, and used to 9 person games. This pace of not having a post from half of the players in two days isn't quite my speed.

I realize it can't be both sides of the scvm deal the way I'm looking at it, or totally one side etc, and I can't be sure which is which until people on either end start to die.

unvote

vote: hitorogoshi

I'm not throwing brosius completely out of the window, but a major piece of people's case against him looks equally bad for hito.

Who: 1) Admitted to being behind in reading the game in the same post that he started pushing for the scvm policy lynch.

I said that I HAD been behind. It's a guarantee that if I post, I've read every post in the thread. I will never ever make a post while I have not read posts in the topic.

2) Has pursued the policy lynch and its attendant arguments in lieu of all other scum-hunting efforts.

Yep. I give my reasoning for such in ISO 11, ISO 13, ISO 16, ISO 21, ISO 28, and ISO 38. Among others. If you want to call this a scumtell you have to tell me a.) why we should keep an anti-town player alive (and you have repeatedly shown you understand how anti-town 5cvm is) and b.) when you think we should lynch 5cvm.

3) Was too comfortable letting Brosius tail him around for the better part of brosius' time in the game

And for the record I can totally understand where Scott is coming from. He just replaced in, it's kind of disorienting, and here is a player who needs to be lynched - it's an easy move to take, and it's what I would do in his situation regardless of role. It's hard to be certain about your scum reads replacing in d1, but it's pretty easy to understand the justification for a policy lynch, so while hopping on the policy wagon is an easy move for scum it's also a justified move for town.

Are you seriously saying that I should have stopped lynching the player I most believed should be lynched because someone else agreed with me?? It's easy enough to bring the point up against Brosius if he were to continue to blindly follow me/someone else D2 (and for the record, he hasn't even done it for the length of D1); there's absolutely no reason to prioritize that over a 5cvm lynch.

4) Who has only taken one position on anything the entire game.
'Just because other people are taking the RVS too seriously doesn't mean I have to'

You seem to have missed that position that, '5cvm is anti-town and must be lynched d1. Anything else is moronic.' You know, that position that has been the entire focus of my playstyle because it is literally the only optimal move for town regardless of 5cvm's alignment?

5) Scummiest----> Arguing against anyone "pro-scvm", but never thinking it scummy of any of them.

What the hell? Dude:

a.) Whether or not an interaction with 5cvm is scummy largely depends on his alignment, and
b.) 5cvm needs to be lynched first.

What is the point of what-if-ing now? There is a D2, y'know. Though I will probably package my sentiments right before the lynch in case I get nk'ed.


Okay, I am going to say this one more time. The only defense I have seen of 5cvm (besides humble's cryptic 'I CAN MAKE HIM PLAY' like some sort of helen keller and buttons bizzare line of inquiry that 5cvm is acting in the towns best interests) is that he is a townie, but that is not a defense. If 5cvm is scum, the optimal play is to lynch him d1. If 5cvm is town, the optimal play is to lynch him d1. Either prove his actions are actually helpful to the town (as button intends?), or lynch him. Saying 'this sequence of events means he is probably town' is rubbish - he is anti-town, I don't care whether or not he has a good reason to be. He IS.

[hitogoroshi]

Right below the "preview/submit" buttons, you can change who's posts are displayed.

Also:

Scvm is acting in as pro-town a way as the other active players. I think his strategy is this: at first, post without any content at all; then, when you start getting a read on people, draw the town's attention to scummy behaviour. This happens from post 216 onwards. It's not active scum-hunting, it's infuriating that he won't answer questions, but he's nevertheless making a positive contribution.

It's my understanding that, except for once saying Aran and Brosius are 'behaving badly', he's been going for the same three people since his first post as scum (well, he's calling me the informed SK). Unless I'm missing something...?

[hitogoroshi]

But you obviously forgot you should have felt this way during some of the arguing. But it never occurs to you and you never find anyone scummy for arguing that he shouldn't be killed. You completely goofed.

Civil, I'm trying to wrap my head around your argument. So pursuing a policy lynch on an anti-town player is scummy...because I don't suspect everyone not doing it of being scum?

...

I don't know about you, but I am mature enough to realize that, hey, not everyone disagreeing with me is scum! I'll freely admit that it kind of feels like bashing my head against the wall and I'm incredibly irritated that it is taking so much effort to lynch the worst mafia player I've ever seen (well, second worst, even with his claiming scum he still doesn't top one certain player) and get on to the real game without this weight. But is it a scum tell to not be on the policy wagon? Of course not. When I know the 5cvm flip I'll be more willing to try to draw inferences about peoples reactions.

Here is something more important. You clearly, clearly understand why 5cvm needs to be lynched. And now you have gone so far as to point out that you agree with me on one crucial point - that 5cvm is so anti-town there are no good reasons for not voting him. You're calling me scummy for not taking the next step and saying that people not voting him are scum. I disagree, because I think many players here don't understand exactly what makes a policy lynch tick. I don't think those people are scum because of that reason. But you - you apparently do understand why 5cvm must be lynched, and so this defense does not apply to you. So, no more of this cutesy 'I think he's town' garbage - why are you

really

not voting 5cvm?

[hitogoroshi]

Dude, it was 12:40am here when you posted. I didn't go V/LA, I just went to

bed

. Suddenly I get the feeling you're just going for me because I'm the only one who's active enough to actually function on your hyper posting level. Take a friggin chill pill, man.

So you are suggesting that everyone not voting for scvm just doesn't understand what policy lynching is?

A combination of that, generalized waffle, and that human instinct that an obvious move is probably wrong. (Something tells me that if 5cvm was half as anti-town as he is now, he'd be lynched - but this is so grotesque that people are reacting oddly.)

Great. So NOW you're going to use the whole thing on me.

Well, you understand policy lynching and you know the obvious move is right. So yes, I am using the 'whole thing' on you. Answer this question you ignored.

If you want to call this a scumtell you have to tell me a.) why we should keep an anti-town player alive (and you have repeatedly shown you understand how anti-town 5cvm is) and b.) when you think we should lynch 5cvm.

Also, you seem inclined to believe that scvm flipping scum somehow allows a scum-link to be made to his "protectors".

What the hell? No I don't. Me not thinking that is what you're calling the scummiest thing about pushing a policy lynch.

I think that his scum buddies are not voting for him, but NO one is voting for him. I never said that his active defenders are scum; only that someone who got on the 5cvm wagon and later off has a good chance of being scum if 5cvm is scum. (To be fair I offered that in the other direction as well - the wagon pattern suggesting that 5cvm could be scum - but that's not so important. I don't really care if 5cvm is scum, that's kinda just me speculating and noting my drift from my 5cvm-weak town read at the start.)

Or take it like this, 'enough with the meanie garbage - why do you say you feel scvm is scum?' Now that's a really stupid question, isn't it?

It's not a stupid question. It's a simple question, with a simple answer - I don't care whether or not he's scum, and I only really feel he's scum because his wagon is empty now and I'd expect scum to want to either bus him or mislynch him - and the fact that the wagon has magically dissipated suggests to me it was the first and the scum are now standing dumbfounded that 5cvm is alive.

And for the record calling a question stupid by analogy isn't nearly the same thing as answering it. You are not voting 5cvm. Why not?

[hitogoroshi]

Sorry for going silent for a while, there. You can blame Dragon Age.

If scvm is a townie, there's no longer any sense wasting that "slot", as you kept calling it. Although, if he were actually scum, then he'd be getting away with murder if we kept him alive. And personally, if he flipped scum, I think you'd look just as bad as anyone not voting for him.

I'm not here to look good. I'm here to lynch an anti-town player.

Scvm hasn't posted in like 5 days. I'd almost prefer a replacement at this point.

Nono, keep going.

You're doing great.

I especially like the part involving lynching hito. Except you should probably respond to this point:

What the hell? No I don't. Me not thinking that is what you're calling the scummiest thing about pushing a policy lynch.

But hito,

You are not voting 5cvm. Why not?

Because he thinks you are scum. He thinks I could go either way. I think (actually know) that your "not caring" about my alignment goes a long way toward explaining some things about

your

alignment. :O

(emphasis mine)

This is such stupid buddying I don't even know how to react. I know your ENITRE plan is to not contribute a single thing and trust other players to work your defense for you, but please, try to at least look ashamed about it.

This is where I re-insert my point about an policy lynch being alignment independent for the umpteenth time.

@ Htio;

What player(s) do you find scummiest?

Hmm. The followers, mostly. ISO squirrel, or confid/tommy. Not really much there but fluff. Squirrel in particular asks a lot of questions but doesn't actually post much analysis or anything. This is a pretty significant scumtell in my book. Brosius to a lesser degree - I've given the mitigating factors for him above. (To be fair these should apply to confid, but he was gone for so so long I am loath to give him any sort of pass. It'll be pretty dependent on what Tommy says.)

Although now I am also going to have to add you under the 'asking questions and not posting much' clause since your recent posts have been nothing but welcomes and questions and an ISO read shows that this has been going on for a while. Weren't you going to show 5cvm was pro-town in any way?

Ooh, and Tommy. Too many questions marks, not enough content. Especially considering the slot he came from.

Just in case this is somehow still unclear. You never said to yourself or anyone, 'hey, why the fuck are you defending him!?'
Now, when 'Scvm is anti-town' (which you kept saying even as he was improving) is such a fact in your head, you should just as clearly see why scum have an interest in keeping him ALIVE regardless of alignment.

I don't think there's a way you can explain taking the scvm=anti-town basis you've worked with and not carrying it just one logical step further. Even if you believed he were scum, you could easily have gone after other people as well.

I've already said why - because I am trying to get a null information, anti-town player lynched. If 5cvm is town, the best way to do so is to make the logical case, not to attack those not voting for him. If he is scum, the best way to do so is to make it as painless as possible for his scumbuddies to bus him so we can get on with it. Hence making a strong case. The fact that he has many active defenders could be scumbuddies; there's simply no sense in speculating on that though when we can check by lynching the anti-town player first.

Also, I have to point out 'gone after others'. I do THINK outside of what I post, you know. But what do you mean by, gone after? Call for the lynch of others? There is no lynch as optimal to the town as 5cvm. If you just mean I should be whipping around more FOS's and the ilk, I personally think that's pointless. You can tell what I think about people's cases and ideas by iso-ing me; there's no sense in me throwing around who else I want to lynch when I am not willing to act on it.

And civil, you're doing it again. You're completely ignoring 5cvm - he doesn't feature on your list at all. Are you treating him as confirmed town forever? If not, what would it take to get you to lynch him? Would you ignore all of your other scum reads on another day to lynch him? Or are you convinced you can divine 'scum reads' from a player who is actively claiming scum? What action could 5cvm do that you would consider scummy?

So hito, if 5cvm flips scum are you going straight for Thebuttonmen and/or me tomorrow, since 5cvm claimed us as buddies?

No, I think the entire thing is a null information WIFOM gambit. However, the very fact that he has deliberately created a null information setting should tell you something. (hint: it's that he is acting against the towns interests and I have said this a lot already.)

In fact, as much as I don't like asking a lot of questions (a good way to look like you're contributing while putting the impetus on other players), I am going to pose the questions I asked civil to all of you:

Are you treating 5cvm as confirmed town forever? If not, what would it take to get you to lynch him? Would you ignore all of your other scum reads on another day to lynch him? Or are you convinced you can divine 'scum reads' from a player who is actively claiming scum? What action could 5cvm do that you would consider scummy?

[hitogoroshi]

Okay, I'm fully aware there are other questions aimed at me but I have to do this one in it's own post.

If 5cvm is town, the best way to do so is to make the logical case, not to attack those not voting for him. If he is scum, the best way to do so is to make it as painless as possible for his scumbuddies to bus him so we can get on with it. Hence making a strong case. The fact that he has many active defenders could be scumbuddies; there's simply no sense in speculating on that though when we can check by lynching the anti-town player first.

What the hell is this? You are literally saying "SCUM GET ON THIS WAGON NAO BEFORE I WHIP YOU WID MAH F*ING CATS". If you call 5cvm anti-town for claiming "scum" this is just as bad. This is asking for a quicklynch. This is TRYING to protect the scum. This is trying to make your policy lynch crusade/case seem (as you put it) "strong".

Vote:Hitogoroshi

I was gonna respond with something short and pithy before I realized that it's actually some kind of out-there theory behind it. I really do need to explain it further, so here we go.

Scum want to kill the most pro-town players. That should be kind of obvious. Anti-town players help scum, pro-town players hurt scum. It's already easy for them to kill pro-town players with the nightkill; as such, whether or not you have ANY good pro-town players left is largely dependent on the town during the day.

Now, many people playing mafia think it's about being a renegade super sleuth who carves up the scum with beams of pure logic. (One wonders if the Sherlock Holmes movie will lead to an upswill to new members...) But there's a lot more to it than that, and the entire game is certainly not about trying to amass 'clues' to build a 'case'. One element is town composition. As our numbers thin we very much want to have good, pro-town players - and

players that allow themselves to be read, making them safer to bring along in a potential LYLO situation.

(gee, it is almost as though my accusation of deliberate unreadability is aimed at a certain player, ho hum.)

For a variety of reasons, D1 lynches are statistically worse than random. So we're not at all likely to hit scum. Now, what's the next best thing to hitting scum? Getting them to work for you.

I think this is where you got confused, EG, and assumed that I was working for the scum. Not at all, and it goes like this:

It is in the scum best interest to lynch pro-town players. However, I bandwagoned 5cvm with the intent of making the best move for scum lynching the anti-town player, aligning their incentives with ours for the moment. I know that the legion of detectives are in outroar, crying "but that way gives us LESS CLUES!" This is only marginally true - you may not learn as much from a blind follower, but you learn they're blindly following. And it's worth killing a player who's not giving up information, even if you have to create a situation where the scum (be they allied with 5cvm, or mislynching him) are allowed to share less about themselves in the process.

My response to the other stuff is coming sometime later (probably tonight but who knows). I will say right away to civil and button that they keep asking for my other scum reads and seem to be missing that I gave them in 445 the last time button asked (which itself was mostly a response of my ISO 44 response to the SAME question, posed by Civil).

[hitogoroshi]

It sounds buddy-buddy, but it's not hardcore buddying or anything like you are trying to paint it. Is any form of agreement buddying as well?

You're defending 5cvm for him. I was giving 5cvm crap because he's pointing out "Don't replace me! You're doing a great job arguing for me so I don't have to defend myself (which is good, because having claimed scum I cannot defend myself)." The fact that you are taking offense to this kinda proves the point.

@Tommy 448 - would you say the 'hilarious persona' makes it harder to read 5cvm?

If your policy lynch fizzles (which doesn't seem to be that rare on this site) you should be willing to accept it and move on to scum hunting, and since you've presumably gathered information on other players through the policy lynch discussion, this shouldn't be as hard of a step as it seems to be for you.

But your post made my point exactly on why I shouldn't give it up:

As you've pointed out, 5cvm's continued existence will be somewhat problematic later on (for me at least).

I don't look forward to picking between him and someone else,

especially since after a quick read of him

I can't confidently see anything significant in his posts

along the lines of what humble in particular sees (and claims to indicate townie-hood). At the same time, I'm hesitant to rely on what others claim to see, and while I do see some sense to what 5cvm has done, I don't like it at all. This whole alt and bulling into the game business doesn't sit well with me at all.

emphasis mine.

A hit is a hit, just that hito may end up with a free-ride from me D-1, and will have come up with some "scum reads" by the time D-2 rolls around. :/

Dude, I told them, then reposted them, then linked to the repost.

But you know what? I'll post them again. And even throw some new ones in to boot~

I think xvart and Civil are both town after their tiff here. Civil in particular is pretty self-focused. Look at the numerous charges of 'misrepping' - scum virtually never are out to twist your arguments in the way he's describing. By that same token, it's also a poor charge for scum to lobby on others, and as such it's usually the domain of a townie who simply can't believe that other people have the views they do about your argument, and they MUST understand it and are just trying to twist it! Scum don't do that and, generally, don't accuse others of doing it.

Tommy and Button are both pretty scummy in my eyes for asking lots of questions and not posting lots of content. News flash - just asking questions is NOT good scumhunting, it's a privilege you earn when you've posted a lot of analysis and you want clarification on something that hasn't already come up.

Chibo is giving me a lazy-tell more than anything. There has been a lot of words thrown about and it's a pain to slog through. If he picks up activity D2 I won't worry so much about it, but if he's this lackluster tomorrow I am going to give him all kinds of hell.

By that same token, it's safe to say this day has gone on far, far too long. So let's lynch someone and be done with it. It looks like the choices are EG and Aran are the candidates for today - ISO'ing them both shows that neither one is really posting all that much content. It kills me to choose it this way, because I still want to policy lynch 5cvm tomorrow and I think Aran would be up for it, but EG is at least confrontational while Aran is just coasting (ISO Aran for the whole effect, I assure you it's spectacular.) And he doesn't seem like he'd post more content when pressure is applied because pressure has been on him most of the game with little response - so

unvote, vote Aranfan

.

PS: Although I'm totally up for a buttonwagon if you guys are.

PPS: If I get nk'd you guys are lynching 5cvm tomorrow, kay? Kay.

PPPS: Civil you forgot to answer this:

Are you treating 5cvm as confirmed town forever? If not, what would it take to get you to lynch him? Would you ignore all of your other scum reads on another day to lynch him? Or are you convinced you can divine 'scum reads' from a player who is actively claiming scum? What action could 5cvm do that you would consider scummy?

[hitogoroshi]

Hito: since you're voting for aranfan, and buttons is still at the top of your list, you think that his "75% sure aranfan is scum" and his posting habits are a method of 'clean' 'efficient' bussing?

To be honest I'm not really trying to double-guess that way. I'm voting aranfan because he and eg are the only plausible lynches for today, and I don't like his lackluster defense (if you say 'lol there's nothing to say' and that's it with a wagon on you, it's unlikely you'll say anything better when there's not.) But if Aran is scum, I'd be less inclined to think Button was scum than I do now. So short answer, no, at this point I doubt that button is bussing aran. I think either one of them have a higher-than-chance probability of being scum, and while I'd prefer a buttonwagon pragmatism sadly demands I go aran. I certainly don't think that all of my top scum suspects are scum together.

Brosius lurked out of another game I think (I was considering replacing in to a game and I think it was replacing in for him) so odds are he lurked out of this one as well. Who even knows about humble.

Once again, I'm inclined to give Chibo a bit of slack because, well, this game has been one long, long thing. I expect a D2 activity surge from everyone but it's really hard to criticize anyone else for not contributing because I personally know how hard it is to muster the energy to post in this monster.

Also: props to Tommy. While I'm not normally a fan of PbPA (it can make anyone look scummy, very easily) it was asked for and I'm glad to see some solid content coming out of your slot. By contrast, I feel fairly safe in saying buttons last ten posts combined were shorter than that last post of yours.

[hitogoroshi]

Hmm. I did have some regrets about lynching Aran over EG, and I think Humble has helped me tip the scales to voting EG instead of Aran.

However, it's very very hard not to lynch Aran when the accusation 'isn't posting content' is met with 'here's why not' instead of content. Hey aran, you should try pulling a tommy and just throw down some nice delicious content posts. I really do want to lynch EG but I at least get the feeling that an EG wagon later would actually lead to some discussion instead of the pitiful deflating that is Aranwagon2010. Aran, a shitty case on you doesn't mean you can post a shitty defense when it's L-1. Start posting some game relevant content, and start posting it fast, because while I'd love to keep you alive today I simply can't without the knowledge that you are in fact capable of adding value to the game.

Humble, glad to see you're back. I'll admit I'm not 100% on your position on a few things but I'll re-read your post in more detail sometime soon (I literally just replaced into a 20 page game, that takes precedence.) Also for the record I totally stole your iso-everyone on replacing in idea before and I'm stealing it again. :3

[hitogoroshi]

Err, I should have clarified. I just said 'At L-1' to convey the sense of the idea that you can't be lackluster to any wagon on you that's as well-developed as it is. You're actually at L-3 or L-2 - I cbf to look back but I seem to remember a vote between the last vote count and now - but you should start treating it like L-1 in terms of how serious it is to start posting redemption-content, especially with the deadline looming.

[hitogoroshi]

Don't claim. But yes, do an analysis. Don't try to do a long thing about everyone because that turns into Information instead of Analysis pretty quickly.

Here's a hint - if I'm not voting 5cvm it's pretty safe to say there's no hope lynching him today. :p So your first order of business is to look at EG. Is the wagon on him deserved? If so, help bolster the EG case. If not, pick your biggest scum read you think you can get lynched by deadline and start hyping the hell out of a wagon on them. (May I suggest button?)

[hitogoroshi]

Wait we haven't replaced Brosius yet??

Mod, replace brosius please.

In all likliehood we'll have to wait for d2 for the replacement to show up - I'm totally cool with Boxman extending n1 until a replacement is found.

While I would dearly like to lynch EG, the fact that Aran can't seem to post a case when a.) his life is on the line and b.) there is an incredibly clear target he can go for to save his own skin suggests to me that there is no event that will make Aran post content - so my vote ain't moving. Sorry xvart, but Aran is gonna have to pull a miracle to make me believe he can be a contributing member of the town at this point.

[hitogoroshi]

Regardless of Aranfan's alignment voting EG is the only sane move he can make at this point. No one besides EG or Aran is getting lynched at this point. I'm not voting Aran because I'm sure we've hit scum - I'm just voting him for being a lump. (basicially the same reason I went after 5cvm, but aran didn't explicitly advertise his intentions to be a lump so it took me a little bit.)

[hitogoroshi]

I find Hito scummy because he kept advocating a 5cvm lynch while 5cvm gradually improved his postig.

I murdered my first wife, beat my second hard enough to send her to the hospital, and just gave the third a black eye. I'm gradually improving; am I a good husband?

[hitogoroshi]

The hand holding by a few players regarding Aranfan is also very odd imo. So what we've done is put pressure on Aranfan for various reasons, and then we've literally told him what to do so as to not be lynched.

In a attempt to get him to provide content. You are right that it's hand-holding, and I think that we can all agree that if we can literally tell Aranfan what to do, and he doesn't do it, there shouldn't be any qualms lynching that slot.

As for 'where I stand', I think I've made that clear, but once more for humbles sake.

-5cvm still isn't providing content, surprise surprise. (Also, mod, I would encourage you to be less willing to replace 5cvm. It's kind of a mean move to stick a player in a slot that's pulled those shenanigans when the new player won't know what the hell was going through his head.) #1 lynch candidate tomorrow, and I think I'll be able to make it more clear tomorrow why we need to lynch 5cvm. (As I've said before, the dilemma comes because of information coming in on everyone but him - when it actually starts happening in front of us, it'll be more clear.)

-Button better actually provide serious content and not just questions and hellos.

- EG and Squirrel have both been lurkers but have been shaping up recently. More posts like this would be nice, you two.

-Chibo better hit the ground running d2, but if he does I'm not gonna hold too much of a grudge for his lurking.

-After xvart and Civil's spat I'm inclined to think town for both of them, I've already said why.

-Humble's content walls strike me as pretty townie, but it'll also depend a good deal on what his 'normal', non-wall posts are like, which we should see more of tomorrow.

-Brosius's slot has gotten away with murder by being fairly mute. Replacement, you're gonna have to work hard to impress me.

-Tommy is improving from his inital button-eqsue question phase and fast becoming one of my strongest town reads.

I think that's everyone.

[hitogoroshi]

I have no problem with an automatic deadline. It'll be nice to try to get a good tempo in this game. Civil I thought you'd like that most of all.

[hitogoroshi]

Welcome to the game, Furry!

While I agree no one should hammer this instant I hope it also goes without saying that someone should make sure to hammer before deadline. Preferably I'd like someone now to pledge that they will be online like, an hour before deadline to make sure to drop the hammer.

Also, if we are twelve hours or less from deadline, do NOT move your vote, whatever happens. If you move your vote in this window we're lynching you tomorrow. (This also means that Aran has a little more than a day to get his ass in here and claim). Having a dedicated hammer-keeper doesn't mean much if someone leaves the wagon at the last minute.

[hitogoroshi]

In this topic, we learn why lynching non-contributors is always the winning move.

[hitogoroshi]

Okay, we are in a really really delicious spot.

The mostly likely combination for those kills is vig, mafia, SK. If that's the case, there is either zero or one mafiosos's left. Notably, this means if 5cvm is scum, he's NOT scum with button or xvart.

Very happy with the Civil vig, though I'm wondering why 5cvm wasn't the target.

Really, really sucks for Furry that he probably worked like hell to catch up and then got killed.

I want to dig back looking at Tommy and Civil's posts. With all of the content Civil vomited I'm sure I'll be able to find something.

[hitogoroshi]

This is not the result of an exhaustive analysis, but we really do need to post content and get the ball rolling.

For starters, I'm going to use one metric: scum dislike commenting on their scumbuddies. I have no idea how true this is for Civil Scum, but let's assume it is and see where it takes us.

There are eight candidates for Civil's scumbuddy. He sparred extremely viciously with xvart, humble, and I. That leaves Chibo, Button, 5cvm, Squirrel, and EG. Of those, I'm tentatively willing to clear Button because I doubt his crusade against Aranfan was a bus. (I'm not calling him confirmed town forever, obviously, but for the purpose of this exercise it's enough.)

Civil-5cvm

As much as it kills me to say this, I wouldn't expect 5cvm to be scum with Civil. Civil's last few posts really struck me as "trying to reconcile with hito and set up a 5cvm policy mis-lynch tomorrow." I highly doubt 5cvm is scum at this point, though I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear he's a SK.

Civil-Chibo

Civil said very little about Chibo. Never once gave a read on whether he seemed town or scum. Chibo's a pretty strong candidate for scumbuddy via this analysis.

Civil-Squirrel

Same as Chibo. Never commented whether he thought Squirrel was town or scum.

Civil-Gorillaz

Civil mentions Gorillaz a lot more. His attacks on xvart also serve as a sort of defense of Gorillaz. By this theory it makes those two as scumbuddies unlikely, however, I offer that point if someone else is more keen to look for defenders.

So by looking at Civil, we get Squirrel and Chibo as the most likely scumbuddies.

Let's look at what THOSE players said about ARAN, the other scum:

Chibo-Aran

I really really doubt Chibo's campaign on Aran was a bus, same reasons as button.

Squirrel-Aran

Squirrel defended Aran fairly explicitly while still voicing some token suspicion.

And a clincher:

Squirrel-Civil

Never says a word to him besides 'don't forget hito joined that bs dichotomy theory against seregil.'

I'll admit I'm not too sure Squirrel would have been as vocal as he was for Aran's survival if they were scumbuddies, but for now I'm liking squirrel-scum. We'll see if that holds up after a closer dissection of Civil (I now need to see if any of his attacks look like busses) but for now:

vote: a_squirrel

[hitogoroshi]

EG - it's possible. My last post was assuming there are 3 mafia as well as the SK. This is partially the streetlight fallacy I'll admit (I'm looking for a lynch candidate where they'd be easy to find, not where they most likely are) because there will be associative tells for the mafia and not for the SK. The fact is we're in a really good spot if it's just the SK left and so it's better to assume there is a third scum left and look for them - because if there is just an SK left, we can mislynch, misvig, and still have five players looking for one SK tomorrow. So personally I'm inclined to look for associative, third-scum tells today. If there are only two kills tonight, then we can probably stop looking for associative tells because it's almost certainly just the SK left.

[hitogoroshi]

Hmm, I'm really liking that last post of yours, squirrel. Just for you I'll look at xvart tomorrow. My vote stays on you for now though.

[hitogoroshi]

an SK, like Chibo

Or hit.

I love the fact that logging in to your alt will take more effort and thought than posting with it.

[hitogoroshi]

You know what? I was going to dig through EG and xvart's posts, and then I realized something. Why the hell am I letting 5cvm get away without providing any content?

What craziness made me forget we have a noncontributor slot??

unvote, vote:5cvm

You're apparently not claiming scum anymore because the numbers wouldn't work out. So how about you actually play the goddamn game, huh?

For the record, I still intend on doing some research on EG or xvart (expect at least one of them today). I just want my vote in a useful place.

[hitogoroshi]

I just realized something.

Let's say we have three mafia, an sk, and a vig.

Mislynch d1, sk kill on a townie, mafia kill, misvig.

We start D2 with eight players...and it's LYLO.

I am now almost certain there only two mafia, and we got them both. That above scenario is simply too imbalanced (especially with a mafia doctor) and too POSSIBLE for me to think it's the set-up.

So it looks like my case on squirrel is more or less moot, because it IS just an sk left. We don't get to use associative tells here.

That being said, I think I like button's line of thought re:Chibo. So I'm throwing my old analysis (based off of associative tells) out the window and I'll look in to the plausibility of chibo-sk.

Of course it goes without saying that I don't move my vote from 5cvm until he actually contributes.

[hitogoroshi]

Oh my god, this game is dying a slow activity death.

Unvote, Vote:ChiboSempai

.

Still waiting for you to do something, 5cvm. Really I'm waiting for pretty much all of you to do something.

[hitogoroshi]

And honestly, I'm waiting for some chibo action right now. Not too sure on the scum or no scum thing, hito's comments earlier make sense, though they assume that town misses twice when 1/3 of the population is against town.

Yeah, after thinking about it a bit there's a chance of three scum and one sk. It'd be balanced against town for sure, but if you're in the mindset of 'Vig is GREAT for town, always, and balances it hard for town" instead of "another killing role in a 12p...?" it'd be something that could get by the censors. Regardless, it's a slim enough chance I'd rather ignore associative tells unless we kill the sk and the game still continues.

[hitogoroshi]

Look around Chibo - there IS no other discussion.

Mod: it's probably time to replace EG. Try prodding milkshake instead of 5cvm because maybe that will get his ass in here.

In the meantime, Chibo is at least here, so let's go ahead and

unvote, vote: Evilgorrilaz

because why not. Four days until deadline, guys. If there's not an EG replacement by then we may as well go ahead and put that slot out of it's misery.

[hitogoroshi]

You know what? Button was right on Aran, and I think Humble is town, so hell, why not. I'm not so sure about the case, but if people I trust are, I'm willing to go along for the ride.

unvote, vote: Chibosempai

[hitogoroshi]

Yeah I'm still here, I just can't muster the motivation to try to kick-start this game knowing so many people have flaked. Sorry, guys.

[hitogoroshi]

Well I've finished reading. I'm not motivated right now but I will be posting my thoughts on all remaining players. For now I'll say that I approve of lynching chibo as SK. Although Humble is making me a little uneasy. Do we still need replacements.

Has the mod abandoned ship? What happened to that vote count?

Hey Jase, welcome to the game.

Humble and button are my two strongest town reads right now. (Humble for his actions - button because I highly doubt his actions re: Aran were a bus.) There aren't four scum in this game (if there are, I'll be calling for boxman to be banned immediately after the conclusion of this game ) so we can be sure if there's a scumbag he doesn't have any buddies looking after him - sometime to keep in mind looking at the interactions here.

We do still need replacements - I think prods should probably go out one last time before that and we can see who's here.

For now though, I think lynching Chibo and letting things go to night is the way to go. Hop on to this delicious wagon and let's get down to business.

ps. - Chibo, this is the part where you claim.

[hitogoroshi]

Chibo, it's generally good to list town reads at least in passing, so the other players can have that information if you die. In this case, there's a double incentive, that being that there are no anti-town BUDDIES left. As such, it's good to start forming blocks of confirmed townies to weed out the scum. If I die, I'll flip town, and that will give a lot more weight to button and humble's votes - as it should be. If humble dies, that gives a lot of weight to my and buttons votes. Etc.

Chibo, I want you to claim because this day is going slower than molasses and it will a.) give us something to do, b.) give me more time to push a counter-wagon if you claim a PR and I believe it and c.) help your lynch go through so we can go to night and wake up with some more definite information.

[hitogoroshi]

Your reads more or less mirror mine, especially button and evil. I don't really agree on a strong town read on xvart but other than that I think we're on the same wavelength here.

[hitogoroshi]

I'm willing to let this die. It's a shame with two scum already dead, but I think it's time we put this wounded deer out of it's misery. I'm not sending that PM, barring a heartfelt plea from a different player.

[hitogoroshi]

I was a VT.

[hitogoroshi]

oh my god so many prs wat

this set up = :/