Mini 873 Plainview Game Over

[SpyreX]

I

don't want to out our doctor.

However, I, as we've seen, have watched this stalled because no want wants to lynch a non-CC'd doctor.

Follow me.

[archaebob]

@ peanutman -

The difference, here, is that there was strong evidence in the thread of my defense of him being true. I was reiterating his implicit justification for lurking in response to a question about why I was okay with him doing it.

You, on the other hand, completely invented your defense of foilist. And that post by itself at the beginning of the game would not have been enough for me to post a case on you. It's the fact that the rest of your play is completely inconsistent with what you did at the beginning that really clinches the deal.

[MordyS]

Archaebob's defense of AlmasterGM on the last page is one of the weirdest things I've seen in this game yet. I kinda understand why SpyreX wants the real doctor to counterclaim at this point. But you know what? If Foilist13 flips town, I think Archaebob is right. I think at this point, we'll learn a ton.

(On the other hand...)

[MordyS]

Ok. I'm gonna hammer. Does anyone have a problem with that?

[archaebob]

YES. wait.

i need to post about sanjay.

[foilist13]

Hammer? I'm at L-3. Since it is clear that everyone has decided to lynch me, I'm going to go ahead and play out the rest of the day with the assumption that I am already dead. No I am not scum, so it is more important for you to think about what it means for me to flip town. Don't take this as defense; I fully expect to by lynched, but all of you need to spend more time thinking about what will happen when I flip town, not when I flip scum.

Archaebob's play is obsessive and overzealous, but over all seems pretty townish.

Snajay doesn't seem very different than he did in 846 and I never suspected him there even though he was scum. I'm not sure what to make of him.

Most of the replacements are lurking.

I still think Almaster is the best lynch for today, but that is no longer relevant.

MordyS gives a general town feeling.

Haven't heard from Gammagooey in far too long, you need to post.

SpyreX - I'd love to see some actual content rather than direction.

[archaebob]

I don't want to out our doctor.

However, I, as we've seen, have watched this stalled because no want wants to lynch a non-CC'd doctor.

Follow me.

This only is valid if you assume that lynching the non-CC'd doctor is necessary right now.

And it's really not. Either AGM will be CC'd at some point in the future (as in, after the doctor has had his shot at saving some folks), or he'll be NK'd. There is no reason to lynch AGM before his being scum is confirmed, and there is no reason to demand that that confirmation come now.

PS, bring it archaebob.

I'm guessing this is about my flip flopping my opinion on AGM, right?

No. It's the fact that you pre-emptively tried to counter a point that you knew would surface after foilist's flip. You came to the realization that you had no choice but to bus foilist. With this realization came the sudden pang of fear that a connection between the two of you would be noticed. Guess what? It already was.

Only problem is, the thing you tried to address really wasn't so bad at all. Foilist could have cared that

you

thought his time-line was plausible because

you were the only person to have said that it was.

It was a poor way of defending himself on his part, but it in no way reflected on

you

.

However, you, in your paranoid, flailing, scum-bag state of existence, read into it as something very serious and vulnerable that needed to be dealt with. And then came the thought: "Aha! If I bring this up myself, and somehow work it into my bus, then there's no way anybody can say it makes me suspicious! It'll look like I'm a town player who was paying very close attention to the game, and was SO unbiased that I noticed when another player was treating me with too much respect. If I do that, then it won't look like a bus!!!"

So, you constructed this whole elaborate operation to get foilist to contradict himself, hoping to use it as the justification for your flip on him (which, btw, is way uncomfortably close to what you did to him in Newbie 846. Ironic that this time he's actually scum with you). He didn't, but you were out of time, and decided to use it anyways. Finally, you voted for foilist. Your sneaky bus/pre-emptive defense maneuver was complete.

That's the story as I see it to have actually occurred. Now let's look at this from the hypothetical of you being town (a true hypothetical, in fact).

You are voting for AGM. From your perspective, he's more likely to be scum. I post all sorts of reasons why I think the strategy works out better if we lynch foilist. You either say the strategy is irrelevant, or completely ignore my posts. Sanjay-town is convinced AGM is scummier than foilist, and scummier enough that it makes the most sense to lynch him. You stick to that. Then...foilist posts this:

The biggest issue I have with lynching AGM over me, aside from self preservation, is that I am answering questions, AGM is not. According to Sanjay, I posted a plausible defesne, AGM did not.

You don't mention anything about this quote for four pages, and continue ignoring/rejecting all my reasons for thinking that foilist is a better lynch.
However, at some point during the next four pages, you notice that post again, and think:

"Why does foilist care about what

I

think? I mean...that's so

specific

. Hrm. I don't see any reason why he would list only

my

name there. That must mean...OH MY GOD! He must think I have way more authority over everybody else...but only a town player could have authority over the other players!! That must mean he knows I'm town...which means he's scum! Oh my god!"

And...THAT...realization...is ultimately the main thing that causes you to unvote AGM and put foilist to L-1. Of all the arguments I posted, none of them were able to change your mind, but the fact that he would single you out as the only player to have posted anything at all about his timeline so clearly indicated his prior knowledge of the alignments that you were convinced he must be scum after all.

Sanjay-town is not an idiot.

You are scum.

[archaebob]

Note to all:

If foilist actually does flip town, you can completely disregard my case on Sanjay.

i don't expect that will happen though.

[archaebob]

I can't imagine how you got to be this mistrusting, archaebob. It's not healthy.

But if you want to remind everyone that I come off as rather townish as scum every once in a while, go right ahead.

As for peanutman, I haven't read peanutman very closely. I haven't posted all my opinions as quickly as I would have liked. foilist13's reaction to my first post was kind of interesting so my last few posts have been dedicated to that tangent.

AlmasterGM is my next player I want to comment on, so it might be a little bit before I comment on peanutman.

Is there a particular reason why you are asking me about peanutman, archaebob?

The bolded: Oh yeah, sure Sanjay. Thank you for reinforcing in my mind the fact that you didn't seem scummy to me in the last game I played with you when you were scum. I'll be

especially

sure to use that as a reason to take anything scummy you do in this game as town-tell. Feel free to make slight adjustments to your meta so that I become totally convinced you are town.

The rest: Just pointing out how much Sanjay didn't want to talk about peanutman.

[archaebob]

I'm more interested in seeing if foilist13 can put my mind at ease than I am in pushing him and seeing if he cracks.

Ultimately, he's probably going to be my lynch recommendation because I'm not really comfortable having a player that I would allow this much scumminess as town hanging around.

That is, of course, unless I find someone scummier.

Very good work catching that slip up before it was too late, Sanjay. Otherwise, I might have been weirded out when you started to change your mind about foilist. I mean, you committed yourself so strongly to wanting him lynched in that first post that I definitely would have found you scummy later if you had started to change your mind. But no! You qualified your previous statement with an option of changing your mind as soon as you "find someone scummier"! Thank you for clearly explaining what needed to happen for you to change your mind, it was a little bit too ambiguous before.

[archaebob]

mk, I think i need to post a full case. I don't have time tonight, as I'm about to go to dinner, but I would REALLY appreciate it if you all wouldn't hammer until I can get that up here. Last time I ask for anything like this today, I promise.

This is especially important now, since Sanjay being scum means I'm almost definitely dead tonight. Hang on.

[Sanjay]

Counter to 681

:

I really don't see that foilist13 quote as something I would need to worry about if I was scum and foilist13 flipped scum. He mentioned me. Big deal. How does foilist13 saying "Don't lynch me, Sanjay says I'm alright" implicate me as his scumbuddy? Hint: it doesn't.

The reason for the delay in reacting it because I didn't notice anything weird about it the first time I read it. When you quoted it again in post 640 is when I felt something was off about it.

Anyway, the point about him mentioning me wasn't the only reason I voted for foilist13. AlmasterGM's most recent post had a lot to do with it too. I've been kind of wavering between AGM being too scummy to be scum and scummy and that post put me more on the "too scummy to be scum" side.

And let me quote some of this:

So, you constructed this whole elaborate operation to get foilist to contradict himself, hoping to use it as the justification for your flip on him (which, btw, is way uncomfortably close to what you did to him in Newbie 846. Ironic that this time he's actually scum with you).

He didn't, but you were out of time, and decided to use it anyways

. Finally, you voted for foilist. Your sneaky bus/pre-emptive defense maneuver was complete.

How was I "out of time"? I really don't see what the huge pressure for me to vote foilist13 now is coming from. Despite MordyS's soft-claim as a triple voter, foilist13 isn't going to flip right away, and even if he was my scum buddy, I wouldn't have to worry about foilist13's quote until AFTER he flipped, and then only if someone noticed it, and then only if they could show how it implicates me.

Assume foilist13 is scum and show me an argument based on that quote which makes me scum. I don't think you can.

----

Counter to 683

:

The reason I asked you about why you were asking me about peanutman was because I was surprised you hadn't taken my post-846 advice. I told you that you need to start asking harder questions to people, and you asking me about peanutman seemed like a softball question.

I don't think I was implying that me acting scummy is a town tell. Come on. Firstly, I don't see how what I said even does that, and secondly, if I'm so smart, shouldn't I know that that is a totally retarded argument anyway?

----

Counter to 684

:

I was advocating lynching a guy just because I can't read him that well. At that point in the game, I hadn't finished examining every player. I felt that with my "Ultimately, he's probably going to be my lynch recommendation" comment was stronger than what I actually felt, especially since I hadn't even looked at everyone closely at that point.

I didn't see anyone overwhelmingly scummy besides foilist13, but there were a lot of people I didn't look that closely at (during my first few reads, infrequent posters like cruelty and peanutman barely blipped on my radar). Maybe what I said went without saying, but at the time I wanted to say it anyway.

----

Counter to 685

:

Not really a real defense since it wasn't an actual attack:

Come on dude, you know from the 846 scum QT that I love keeping you alive as scum. I was super disappointed when foilist13 revealed that you were the one he investigated. I was hoping it would be muh316 or something.

Anyway, that's kind of a dumb thing to say. If other people are scum, they could easily off you to try and cast suspicion on me. And if I'm scum, I could easily off you and say "Well, you can't trust the nightkill! WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM LOL LOL LOL"

[archaebob]

I really don't see that foilist13 quote as something I would need to worry about if I was scum and foilist13 flipped scum. He mentioned me. Big deal. How does foilist13 saying "Don't lynch me, Sanjay says I'm alright" implicate me as his scumbuddy? Hint: it doesn't.

Your right, it doesn't. That's the whole point I'm making. You in your paranoid scumminess interpreted it as more dangerous than it actually was, and decided to cut off any connection that could possibly be made between the two of you.

But I'm realizing now that that argument is dependent on assuming that you're scum to begin with. I'll just say that my gut went "OH MOTHERFUCKER" when I was reading your post about it.

That being said, the main problem is that your logic makes no sense at all. How is his usage of your name something that makes him more likely to be scum? What, he was revealing that he knew you were town because he thought you had authority or something? That doesn't make any sense, which is why I'm more inclined to believe that you over-reacted as scum, rather than being a town player who actually thought the quote made foilist suspicious.

How was I "out of time"? I really don't see what the huge pressure for me to vote foilist13 now is coming from. Despite MordyS's soft-claim as a triple voter, foilist13 isn't going to flip right away, and even if he was my scum buddy, I wouldn't have to worry about foilist13's quote until AFTER he flipped, and then only if someone noticed it, and then only if they could show how it implicates me.

Assume foilist13 is scum and show me an argument based on that quote which makes me scum. I don't think you can.

There wasn't huge pressure to vote foilist, which is why it doesn't make sense that you did. By out of time, I meant out of time to try and make him contradict himself again. But blah, that was all a part of my made-up narrative about how my gut is reading the thread. From my perspective, the story I wrote in that post fits the events much better than the corresponding one does with you as town. I need to really think, and figure out what the specific things are that are giving my gut that read before I can post a case.

The reason I asked you about why you were asking me about peanutman was because I was surprised you hadn't taken my post-846 advice. I told you that you need to start asking harder questions to people, and you asking me about peanutman seemed like a softball question.

I'm not referring to the fact that you asked me why I was asking you about peanut. I'm referring to your answer to my question, which was a big dodge. And then later on, when you finally did talk about peanut, you totally ignored the connection between him and foilist.

But all of that's for later.

I don't think I was implying that me acting scummy is a town tell. Come on. Firstly, I don't see how what I said even does that, and secondly, if I'm so smart, shouldn't I know that that is a totally retarded argument anyway?

But if you want to remind everyone that I come off as rather townish as scum every once in a while, go right ahead.

Why else would you say that? You were stating as a fact that you can seem very townish as scum, and asking me in an awkward, sort of baiting manner if I wanted to let everybody know about that. Why would I exactly? There is no reason on earth that I would want to do that.

If the statement "Sanjay seems townish as scum" is true," than the statement "If Sanjay is scummy, he's less likely to actually be scum" is also true. I think you were trying to implant this predisposition into the heads of the town, particularly me.

Come on dude, you know from the 846 scum QT that I love keeping you alive as scum. I was super disappointed when foilist13 revealed that you were the one he investigated. I was hoping it would be muh316 or something.

Anyway, that's kind of a dumb thing to say. If other people are scum, they could easily off you to try and cast suspicion on me. And if I'm scum, I could easily off you and say "Well, you can't trust the nightkill! WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM LOL LOL LOL"

Whatever. If you're scum, you'll still want to kill me because you know I suspect you, and you know I am pre-disposed to tunneling you like a madman.

@ the doctor

(who may or not exist and who may or not be AGM) - if foilist

does

actually flip scum, it'd be totally awesome to get protected tonight. Just sayin.

I need more time than I can ask the town to wait around for to get a Sanjay case ready. So, if y'all are actually ready to hammer foilist, I think now is a good time.

[archaebob]

@ Sanjay -

You didn't answer an earlier question. What exactly, in you mind, is the case against AGM?

I'd really like everyone to answer this question, mostly since I think he's town, and I think you will too if you really examine the arguments against him.

[Sanjay]

So basically your argument that I am scum is that my argument was stupid and I'm not stupid, but yet your argument that I'm scum involves me being even stupider?

Look at it this way:

You brought up the foilist13 quote and said I was trying to cover it up.
I had an easy answer that the foilist13 quote doesn't actually implicate me.

So in your version of events, I looked at the foilist13 quote, I said "oh crap, this is going to get me lynched when my good buddy foilist13 flips", I was super worried about it, but then I came up with a genius plan to bring it up myself so it looks less scummy.

You call me on it, AND ONLY THEN do I realize that it isn't even that bad. All the while while I was scheming this never occurred to me because I was panicking so bad, but your attack gave me the clarity of vision to realize that I had nothing to worry about after all.

Is that your version of events, archaebob? I panic at a rate inversely proportional to the amount of pressure that's put on me?

Anyway, I think my argument is better than you give it credit.

foilist13's statement was weird. Me thinking his timeline was plausible shouldn't be something he lists in his favor. He wasn't even talking to me. It could be an innocent comment, sure, but when I looked at it again, I thought maybe he was scum proud that he had got me off his back.

Maybe he could be town proud of it too. Either way, foilist13 has seemed pretty keen that think well of his defenses for a while now, I've been feeling weird about it.

-----

Looking at peanutman was not the next thing on my agenda, and you gave me no reason why I should move it up. If you consider that a dodge, fine.

I didn't comment on the foilist13-peanutman connection, yeah. Because I don't see it nearly as strongly as you do. Besides, what's your case here? That I was so scared of the associative tells between foilist13 and peanutman that I made sure not to bring it up, but I was perfectly fine posting reasons to consider both of them scummy independently? What's my motivation as their cool, hip scumbuddy to do this? I want to distance them both, but I want to leave my options open so far as the order I bus them in?

-----

I tell people to keep in mind that I'm townish as scum partially because it's true and partially because I spent my entire first game entirely above suspicion and it was lame. I haven't done it much recently because KittyMo called it arrogant, but when I had a chance to remind people of it AND have a go at you, I couldn't resist. I mean look at the tone of that post. I was clearly teasing you.

You are incorrect to say that "Sanjay is townish as scum" implies that "Sanjay is scummy as town." I look townish independent of alignment.

How big of a master manipulator do you think I fashion myself as? You really think I was trying to convince you that scumtells are towntells for me? If I was planning on doing that I would just explain that I'm from Bizarro World, and that's also why I get more panicked the less pressure someone puts on me.

-----

The main reason I'd like AGM lynched is I find him being a doctor a little implausible. I feel like he's actively courted attention, which goes against how he describes his play as cop (granted, I haven't actually read the game. Maybe he just didn't happen to get into trouble and he's giving himself too much credit). Plus his "joke" seemed townish to me, but then he ruined it all by saying "ho ho ho, it was a joke, don't mind me", which seemed more like an excuse than an explanation.

I suppose from a certain point of view, the implausibility of the doc claim is a reason to believe it is legit, but I can definitely see scum trying to out a doc while they are going down, so that's not really what I was thinking.

[MordyS]

Despite MordyS's soft-claim as a triple voter

lol

That is all. I thought I was the hammer vote because archaebob seemed to imply the next vote was the hammer. Honestly, I'd still rather lynch AlmasterGM.

[Gammagooey]

I'm probably going to be repeating myself with this, but oh well.
-I agree with Mordy/Spyrex that foilist is more likely to be the village idiot than Almaster.
-I think that looking at Almaster's play his doc claim DOESN'T MAKE SENSE. Seriously, I can't fathom that he would play doctor that much differently than he played his cop game.
-I think Mordy saying he'd hammer is much more likely a miscount than a TRIPLE-voter claim. I've never seen that before and in a mini it would be amazingly powerful. Or he just wants to be the last one to switch over, but I don't see how being the last one to vote him does anything.
-I'm wondering what's taking Socio so long to read this over and post some content.
-I'm realizing I started every statement of this post so far with I/I'm.

But you know what? If Foilist13 flips town, I think Archaebob is right. I think at this point, we'll learn a ton.

Was this a typo? Considering almost all of archae's arguments are based on foil flipping scum, I don't see how him flipping town would prove what he's saying.

About Sanjay:

And...THAT...realization...is ultimately the main thing that causes you to unvote AGM and put foilist to L-1.

Even with Sanjay's vote, he's at L-3. (12 people=7 to lynch, Sanjay gave foil his 4th vote.)

You allowed me to get up to L-2, and never took your vote off until you decided to jump on AGM. This is not consistent with your earlier statements, and I don't believe that it came from town.

I just went through Sanjay in isolation, and I never saw him voting you. Are you blaming him for leaving China's vote on you too long?

Sanjay's defense also makes quite a lot of sense to me.

@archae-Discrepancies. 'SPLAIN PLEASE.

[Sanjay]

I think if you re-read the context of that last quote, Gammagooey, you might want to withdraw the question sheepishly.

[Gammagooey]

OH, that one was about peanutman and not Sanjay. I hereby follow Sanjay's advice, but I still request explanation for the L-3 vs L-1.

[archaebob]

I didn't bother to count myself, so when MordyS asked if he could hammer, I assumed we were at L-1.

Sanjay is very good at defending himself. I don't know if that means I'm wrong or not, but I need to reconsider certain things.

I think it's already been made clear by now, but I have to confess to something of a paranoia regarding Sanjay. You'll have to forgive me this...it is the direct result of his scum play in Newbie 846, in which i was town, and in which I never suspected him even once until I was NK'd and we were well into the next day. The experience was somewhat traumatic for me, since I was something close to positive that foilist13 was scum in that game, but he flipped cop, and then I died. Anyone who's a little bit confused about the past context of my relationship with foilist13 and Sanjay (which it turning out to be quite a force in this game, as a matter of fact) would do well to read Day 2 of that game. I believe I linked it earlier when I first gave an example of foilist's meta.

So, here's how things stand. I've been very suspicious of Sanjay since his iso 7, which I guess just rubbed me the worst way I could be rubbed, given the past history involved. Since then, everything he has done has seemed suspicious to me. It was also around this time that I began reassessing AGM's play, so I'm not totally sure as to what extent my recent town read of AGM was influenced by my desire to substitute Sanjay for him on the scum-team.

SO:

I still think we should lynch foilist today, as all my reasons for preferring his lynch still stand. Mordy and Gamma, I'd love to know what about that reasoning you disagree with.

I still think that if foilist flips mafia, peanutman becomes obvscum. I'm not sure right now how many people agree with that, and how many don't.

I'm not totally clear on who I think the third scum is, and I'm starting to think that I'm over-stepping myself by trying to catch all three on D1. I do genuinely think that AGM is far less scummy than he has been made out to be, and I see strong strategic reasons for keeping him alive at least until Day 3 (assuming foil flips scum today). And I'm very wary of Sanjay, which I can't help. I have to go back and see later if I still think I have anything on him.
There's lots of people who haven't been posting much, and I think more attention needs to go to them.

So, in conclusion, I think I over-stepped myself by going off the deep end about Sanjay, and totally dismissing the case against AGM. But foilist is still the best lynch today, and I think that we should be getting on with it about now.

[Sanjay]

I probably shouldn't have ribbed you about 846. I had a really heartbreaking loss in my first game too and I probably wouldn't like it being brought up every other minute, especially when not totally game relevant.

As you might imagine, I was very pleased with how Newbie 846 went down and have been more than happy to bring it up at every opportunity. Maybe the next time you're in a game with SaintKerrigan and Garnasha, you'll understand. You're quite the heartbreaker yourself.

[Gammagooey]

Mordy, how did archae imply that the next vote was the hammer exactly? his stating that it was L-1 was after your statement.

archae, I just think that Almaster is likelier scum, and even with my and Mordy's vote it would still only be L-1. I'd rather not vote him and show the current non-voters that his lynch is inevitable just yet, a decision by an individual voter that he's scummier than Almaster is better than a vote for foilist because he's the pre-determined lynch for today.

[MordyS]

So inconsequential, but this is what confused me:

Foilist, peanutman, and Sanjay are scum. I'll post more about Sanjay later on, so don't hammer yet, but this is overwhelmingly my read on the game right now.

I assumed this meant we were at L-1. I'm guessing he just meant: Don't put three more votes on him.

[PhaerieM]

To everyone:

Please don't speak about the replacements lurking anymore, unless you plan on responding to their posts. After awhile, it's like talking to a brick wall here. This game is about the least replacement-friendly I've ever seen. It's not just the massive posts, but the fact that *everyone* has tunnel vision in this game, and ignore anything that doesn't have to do with themselves, or foilist/almaster.

It's not just archaebob, it's everyone, but since archaebob has taken it upon himself to act as leader of the game, holding people accountable for posting/responding to things, I find it funny that he refuses to answer direct questions or respond to posts unless they have to do with AGM/foilist.

Sorry if it comes off a bit harsh, but even with posting every day since replacing in, and asking for feedback, my posts get completely lost in the torrent of what is becoming the white noise of the thread. So when I see people saying "Where have you been?" or "the replacements are lurking", it makes me want to throw up my hands.

[Sanjay]

Yo, PhaerieM, what do you make of foilist13's case on Muffin?