Mini 873 Plainview Game Over

[archaebob]

oh, and

vote foilist13

.

I really see no reason to lynch a claimed PR on D1. Firstly, the cost of mislynch is substantially higher. People have mentioned that him being outed means he'll be roleblocked or NK'd, so he's useless. Well, if he's NK'd then that means we won't have wasted one of our lynches, and if he's roleblocked, then that means the roleblocker can't block any of our other PRs. Doesn't make sense to use OUR day lynch to off him right now.

Also, AGM flipping doesn't tell us anything about the other players. What will we know that we didn't already know if he turns out to be scum? His alignment wouldn't alter the case against foilist or peanut at all, since their sudden votes could just as easily be a bad attempt at getting on the mislynch wagon as they could be a bus. Foil and peanut jumping on that wagon was scummy in and of itself, regardless of AGM's flip, so it really doesn't matter if AGM turns out to be town or scum. Peanutman, however, is

substantially

more likely to be scum if foilist turns out to be scum.

In short, besides getting rid of a pretty useless poster, I don't really see the benefit to the town of lynching AGM. I don't think we know for a fact that he's scum; at least, we aren't any more sure with him than we are with foil. From my perspective, foilist's lynch is safer, more informative, and equally likely to hit mafia.

[Sanjay]

My opinions on people:

Papa Zito

: I generally saw eye to eye with lexprod so that leaves me with some feelings of towniness here. Floating the VT gambit as a legitimate possibility was a little weird, but

foilist13

: foilist13's most recent timeline seems somewhat plausible so now foilist13 isn't obv-scum. I still suspect him because his case against Muffin felt kind of fabricated to me, and seemed more about getting his vote off MordyS in as unawkward a way possible than it was in bringing Muffin to task. I mean, why abandon your case on someone who was previously your number one suspect in such a weaksauce manner.

Another thing that smells fishy about the Muffin case is that it was originally mostly built based on differences between Muffin's play here and his play in 846. What is suspicious about it is that he noticed suspicious differences in archaebob too. From Post 164:

Muffin - I find him scummy based on the differences between his playing here and his playing in 846. He is my top suspect.

archaebob - His playing is similar to what it was in 846, except there is less content in general, and less risk taking. Whether or not that means he's scum I don't know.

Why the difference?

FOS: foilist13

AlmasterGM

: Well, I've reread some AlmasterGM and I admit I was wrong about him not being justifiably rung up. I feel that "early bandwagons are bad" and "townies don't look up players before the game starts" are both perfectly legitimate opinions for a person to have, and I felt like there was a better chance that AlmasterGM was the subject of some mafiosos jumping on an easy lynch.

Plus the stuff about "look at me, I'm dodging wagons by ignoring them" stuff just seemed too silly to be coming from mafia. I know that's WIFOMy, but WIFOM type stuff usually does good work on my gut.

If AlmasterGM was the doc, obviously he'd be in a pickle with someone asking him "hey, what's the deal with you being all different from this game (in which you were a powerrole)". But the thing is, AlmasterGM brought up the distinction in play, not Gammagooey. Gammagooey just asked why is your play different? AlmasterGM could have just said "I'm not always conservative. Sometimes I'm aggressive." If he was feeling like his hands were so tied, why bring powerroles into it?

I have some pause because I think claiming doc after softclaiming scum is kind of dumb move for scum too, but I guess I can see him trying to out a doc with his claim.

I know I've sort of flopped on my opinion on AlmasterGM, but I do stand by the point that not every argument against him has been sterling. But I'm not so ready to proclaim that those arguments were done out of malicious intent anymore.

I'm gonna vote for this dude.

SocioPath

: Neutral. I'm kind of surprised to find Muffin isn't the shining beacon of towniness that I know him as, but I believe his claim of real life issues and that is explanation for that. Muffin's been more or less under my radar so far. It's a real shame he replaced out before he could respond to PhaerieM's case, and I feel like that's a real spanner in the works so far as lynching him today.

MordyS

: If foilist13 is mafia MordyS is definitely town. Unless it was a big act, no way a scummate accidentally votes for his scumbuddy. And irrelevant of foilist, he's probably town anyway. He's mainly the one I had my eye on as far as someone opportunistically jumping on a town AlmasterGM, but as I become more convinced that AlmasterGM is scum, that argument either becomes much weaker if AlmasterGM happens to be town and irrelevant if he happens to be scum.

Gammagooey

: Feeling pretty town about Gammagooey. Another person that is practically confirmed town if foilist happens to be scum. There was a point or two that I disagree with as far as his most recent AlmasterGM case goes, but it makes me feel good about Gammagooey's intentions at least.

PhaerieM

: So far I like where PhaerieM is coming from.

cruelty

: I haven't looked at him that closely so I guess he's next. I think his attack on archaebob was kind of silly because it seemed more about a dislike of his playstyle than any firm reason that he is scum. Though probably not the lynch for today. I'd like to hear more from Papa Zito about why he is.

peanutman

: When I was first asked about peanutman I hadn't really looked at him. He did not stand out on my first few reads so he wasn't a top priority. But there are some suspicious things about peanutman:

The tone of peanutman's most recent post seems to suggest that before the PR claim, peanutman was okay with an AlmasterGM lynch. Thing is, he hasn't really expressed much reason for wanting an AlmasterGM lynch. peanutman, if I am misreading you about this, let me know.

Also, as I think archaebob might have pointed out, his benefit of the doubt line seems a little off.

FOS: peanutman

archaebob

: In archaebob's last two games (one as scum, one as town), there was a ridiculously clear difference between his play in those two games. In this game, he's playing very closely to what I would expect from him as town. Of course, archaebob is a smart guy and he is very meta-conscious (in his scum game, he killed a less townie-seeming player just because that player was in both games and archaebob was worried he would notice the difference). So archaebob isn't auto-town. But he's probably town though.

One thing that gives me pause about archaebob is AlmasterGM's ridiculous personal attack on archaebob on page one that he never explained. Seems like it could be AlmasterGM distancing himself from his scumbuddy. Also, there's been a few things that archaebob has put off explaining with the promise that he has a reason for it, and while I'm sure, scum or town, archaebob wouldn't say this without coming up with a reason, I'd like to hear it before the end of the day.

SpyreX

: I was just planning on judging him and MordyS as one composite unit if that's okay. Hopefully town.

------

Well, I'm caught up. Again, really sorry for the wait. Let's get rolling.

Vote: AlmasterGM

This dude has the most unexplained things so he's the one I want lynched, doc claim or no.

[archaebob]

@ Sanjay-

oh, and

vote foilist13

.

I really see no reason to lynch a claimed PR on D1. Firstly, the cost of mislynch is substantially higher. People have mentioned that him being outed means he'll be roleblocked or NK'd, so he's useless. Well, if he's NK'd then that means we won't have wasted one of our lynches, and if he's roleblocked, then that means the roleblocker can't block any of our other PRs. Doesn't make sense to use OUR day lynch to off him right now.

Also, AGM flipping doesn't tell us anything about the other players. What will we know that we didn't already know if he turns out to be scum? His alignment wouldn't alter the case against foilist or peanut at all, since their sudden votes could just as easily be a bad attempt at getting on the mislynch wagon as they could be a bus. Foil and peanut jumping on that wagon was scummy in and of itself, regardless of AGM's flip, so it really doesn't matter if AGM turns out to be town or scum. Peanutman, however, is

substantially

more likely to be scum if foilist turns out to be scum.

In short, besides getting rid of a pretty useless poster, I don't really see the benefit to the town of lynching AGM. I don't think we know for a fact that he's scum; at least, we aren't any more sure with him than we are with foil. From my perspective, foilist's lynch is safer, more informative, and equally likely to hit mafia.

What about my reasoning do you not agree with?

[foilist13]

@Sanjay - The difference between my two statements about muffin and Archaebob is that muffin was playing much more differently in my eyes, and Archaebob said something earlier in the game about reinventing his playstyle, or just changing it. I'll have to go back and look, but I distinctly remember him saying something like that to Almaster or Cruelty. That makes me less inclined to judge him based on meta, where as muffin does not have that advantage.

Was that clear?

As for the weaksauce part, what did you expect me to do? I didn't have anything else scummy on Muffin, and I clearly wasn't convincing anyone else to vote for him. With that in mind I decided to take Archaebob up on his suggestion of voting non-posters.

[SpyreX]

This game.

I really see no reason to lynch a claimed PR on D1. Firstly, the cost of mislynch is substantially higher. People have mentioned that him being outed means he'll be roleblocked or NK'd, so he's useless. Well, if he's NK'd then that means we won't have wasted one of our lynches, and if he's roleblocked, then that means the roleblocker can't block any of our other PRs. Doesn't make sense to use OUR day lynch to off him right now.

I will never understand why "claiming a PR" = "get out of jail free".

If you think he is scum, vote. If you think he is telling the truth, don't.

I am voting for scum. I am more than a little irritated that "welp, doc" is getting this much weight (but not surprised).

[archaebob]

@ Spyrex -

My point is that I'm equally sure about foilist AND almaster. I have no way of deciding right now that one of them is more likely to be scum than the other. From my perspective, they are both likely to be scum, but they are also both very plausible candidates for VI. The only thing I can point to and say FOR SURE is that foilist's lynch gives the town more information (which i've been saying since before AGM's claim). The doc claim isn't the main reason I think foil is a better lynch, but I do think it substantially increases the cost of mislynch.

And it's not a get out of jail free card. Do you really think for one second that if he's actually scum, he has

any

chance of surviving for this entire game? All that has to happen is for the mafia to kill the real doc by accident, and his claim is out the window. And even if that doesn't happen, it's going to be very difficult for scum-AGM to convince us that he's the doc for the rest of the game.

I think AGM is a very good lead, and I think he's very likely to be scum. I just don't see any reason to pick him over foilist at this juncture in the game.

[MordyS]

Something I was thinking about on the subway up from class (yes, I think about Mafia on the subway); the chance of hitting scum on D1 is higher than the chance of hitting doctor.

Also, I think AlmasterGM is lying, and I think he's trying to ferret out a real town doctor by claiming town. He hasn't answered a single question I've asked him about his claim (well, he did answer that one with three games, but as Sanjay points out, they actually didn't answer the question at all). Maybe he's hoping that if he remains quiet, the bandwagon will disappear off him again?

[MordyS]

From my perspective, they are both likely to be scum, but they are also both very plausible candidates for VI.

Foilist13 for sure. But AlmasterGM does not strike me like the quintessential VI at all. He seems much too savvy for that.

[SpyreX]

This is when I throw my hands up, some. Foil ISNT a bad lynch - but I swear to everything holy if he goes "HAY I ARE POWER ROLE" and we do this again I will find the mod and give him real life cash money to make me a multi-shot vig and I will shoot you all.

ALL.

BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD

Unvote, Vote: Foilist

@Mordy:

Your idea is right but ultimately its not the right metric. We have a chance (hopefully 25-33%) of hitting mafia. We have a chance (hopefully 66-75%) of hitting town. Within that second we have a chance ( no idea ) of hitting a PR. That last (no idea) is probably going to be the same for any PR.

But, yea, he's scum.

He's also not getting lynched today. I can smell the winds.

[archaebob]

@ MordyS -

I tend to think he's lying too. But I'm not positive about that, which means I have to think about the situation logically. If foilist flips scum, then peanutman probably will as well. If foil doesn't, then my entire case on peanutman goes to shreds (which is good, because it means we won't mislynch him). We learn something very concrete and applicable about another player by lynching foilist. AGM's flip, however desirable, doesn't tell us ANYTHING.

And again, honestly, how do we help ourselves by lynching a claimed doc? Even if you think he's scum, there's no reason not to save him for after we lynch all the other, un-PR claimed people who we ALSO think are scum. It's just smart risk avoidance.

I really think foil is the one who needs to go today.

[MordyS]

Ok, so explain again how your case on Peanutman goes away if foilist13 flips town? Because my case on Peanutman is dependent upon AlmasterGM flipping.

[archaebob]

My case on peanutman is largely an examination of his relationship with foilist, and how that relationship has been very different from his relationship with other players, most visibly me. If foilist flips town, than the case becomes a poor one, because it's difficult to see why scum-Peanutman would want to buddy up to a town player who was under a lot of suspicion.

And I don't see any part of your case that becomes invalid if AGM flips town or scum. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong thing?

[MordyS]

Look at my iso 52, particular the very last bit where I note that Peanutman hasn't mentioned AlmasterGM this entire game until he jumps on the wagon. Classic bus behavior, imho.

[SpyreX]

Keep in mind this has set the tone for "welp, I'm scum and am goin up the tree, CLAIM PR"

[archaebob]

@ Sanjay

I can see that you are online. Please answer my latest question.

Also, I gently suggest to you that you fully stake out your position NOW, rather than later on, when it's already clear who the lynch will be. It will make it so much easier to interpret your opinion of things as genuine, and not influenced by the general trend of the town.

I still fail to see why you would prefer and AGM lynch over a foilist one.

[MordyS]

Because I think it's more likely that foilist13 is VI than AlmasterGM. So all things weighted, I think it's more likely that AlmasterGM is scum.

[SpyreX]

^

This

[archaebob]

That whole post was directed at Sanjay.

And I'm not going to comment further until he does.

[foilist13]

The biggest issue I have with lynching AGM over me, aside from self preservation, is that I am answering questions, AGM is not. According to Sanjay, I posted a plausible defesne, AGM did not. Also, Archaebob, if you lynch me and I flip town, whats to stop the mafia just Night Killing Peanut? What you just said makes him a strong target, so if they chose to do so, you would effectively learn nothing.

I think I have been a much more useful player than AGM, and at least one of you has already pointed that out, and the mafia could easily take away whatever you might learn from me, or not and use it to try and confuse you. There is not so much to learn here as you might think.

Also Peanut buddying up to a disreputable town player is WIFOM. He could do it just to hide behind it later when I flip town, so that argument is null.

[archaebob]

confirm vote: foilist13

[Sanjay]

Dr. AlmasterGM or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Lynch the Doc

Reasons not to worry about AlmasterGM's doc claim:

1. The mafia isn't going to solve the problem for us.
2. If we don't lynch AlmasterGM, every day it's just gonna be "hey, do you want to lynch this dude yet".
3. Unless the mafia kill a doc, we aren't going to be any more sure about this doc claim now than later. If the scumteam can't come up with plausible people for AlmasterGM to "save", then they're nothing to worry about.
4. Docs are great and all, but at best they are a mild inconvenience to the scumteam, especially outed.

I know there are strategic benefits to not lynching the claimed powerrole, but I'd rather just lynch the player that seems the scummiest. I have a harder time imagining AlmasterGM as town than I do foilist13 as town.

Plus I really don't see how an AlmasterGM lynch would be less illuminating than a foilist13 lynch. If AlmasterGM is town, we have a very scummy looking townie that has been under attack from page one. Pretty much everyone has commented on him.

We could talk about the comparative value of them flipping as scum, but I think that's a little silly. If we think they are scum we don't need extra incentive to lynch them. Dreaming about how awesome your case is going to be after someone flips is just a way to convince yourself to lynch someone that isn't your primary suspect.

[archaebob]

@ Sanjay

I can see that you are online. Please answer my latest question.

[archaebob]

EBWOP: my bad

[SpyreX]

If GM gets votes I will hammer the space hell zombies out of him.

I want blood. Real bad

[foilist13]

@Archaebob - Are you more interested in lynching me because you want info on Peanut, or because you legitimately think I am scummier that AlmasterGM?

What about my defense to you take issue with, and what about AGM's do you not?