Mini 867- TTGL Mafia: GAME OVER: Roles posted.

[forbiddanlight]

xofelf prodded, Jebus about 2 hours away from force replacement

[Vi]

Jebus about 2 hours away from force replacement

Considering I can see him avoiding this thread, let's go ahead and make that an unnecessary chore.

Unvote: xofelf
Vote: Jebus

(L-5)

[forbiddanlight]

Considering I can see him avoiding this thread, let's go ahead and make that an unnecessary chore.

If you'll be lynching him I'll hold off on the force replace. I'd rather not have some of my quite enthusiastic replacements walk into a situation like that

[Seraphim]

Mod: V/LA until Monday

I am sorry for any inconvenience.

Noted.

[Chaco]

If everyone is in agreement, shall I rid us of Jebus? Put him up to L-2, or lower, and Ill make it happen.

[MonkeyMan576]

I'm not against it, but I'm not sure I want to derail the xof wagon.

[Jahudo]

I'd rather get the quite enthusiastic replacements into the game immediately for a fresh perspective and to see if we can get an actually read on the people who have posted no content.

You have four days to deadline. How about this. I will give you all a 24 hour extension. I want you all to decide and vote on whether you want Jebus replaced or not in that time.

(Basicalle, starting now, deadline is pushed back 24 hours. However, at 11 PM EST tomorrow, I want a decision on Jebus)

Is this fair?

[Snow_Bunny]

I rather go for a MM lynch rather than a lurker, but if we're going out for it then I prefer to not rush. If we wait for the replacement, we will end up rushing at deadline, and from previous experiences I've learned that's not a good thing to do. We all know getting a replacement isn't as easy as it sounds. If the replacement can enter before Friday, then do it. Otherwise I prefer not to.

I have four replacements lined up. Getting one in time will not be a difficult task...bitch

[Yosarian2]

At this point, I'd rather replace Jebus and lynch Xofelf.

[Vi]

I'd rather get the quite enthusiastic replacements into the game immediately for a fresh perspective and to see if we can get an actually read on the people who have posted no content.

We don't have enough of a read on them now?

[Jahudo]

I've taken a step back and realized that my xofelf read hinges on the belief that this is her playstyle regardless of alignment, which I haven't researched more than a brief look. I'll give a complete look at her past games and if I'm wrong I will agree that she could be scum, the AtE could be a legit scumtell, and she should be lynched.

Jebus should be replaced immediately.

[Vi]

In that case the quite enthusiastic replacements need to enter the game ASAP.

I have four out of ten opinions. I'd like to at least get 8 of those opinions if I do it earlier then I said I would. Otherwise, obviously I'll just go with whatever the people that actually showed up say

[Vi]

EBWOP: So what is your position on Jebus' alignment again?

[Jahudo]

He seemed enthusiastic about the theme in his first post, so I don't think its lack of interest. And he is playing in other games, so unless he gives a defense, I don't think its lack of time.

I am suspicious of him because he is a usually a serious mafia player and active, but I am more suspicious of more active people like Cobalt. I wouldn't mind giving the Jebus player slot another game day to see what a replacement does with it.

[Jahudo]

I asked myself, who the hell do you think xofelf is? Here's what I found out:

Mafia 99

– Killers Mafia
Vanilla Townie / 3 posts / no content
Post 1) Replaces in and says she’ll read.
Post 2) Still reading / haven’t started to read. 18 days since last post.
Post 3) Life issues. Haven’t started to read. Small AtE. 8 days since last post.

Mini 844

– P-p-plain!
Serial Killer / 18 posts / some content
Post 4) Busy, still catching up
Post 5) Personal reasons for not being caught up
Post 6) Still reading.
Post 7) Some opinionated stance. Limited time to post.
Post 8) Still limited time to post. Opinions on everybody, but not much reasoning.
Post 12) Reasoned suspicion.
Post 16) Setup speculation. Soft claims vig.
Post 17) Claims vig. More setup speculation.

Mini 812

– Twilight Mafia
Townie / 10 posts / no content
Post 1) Confirm, zwet hate.
Post 2) Random vote zwet.
Post 3) Explains zwet vote.
Post 4) Has to catch up with reading.
Post 5) Still reading.
Post 6) 8 days later, gives personal reasons for inactivity. No content.
Post 7) Two more days and still reading. 1 unexplained suspicion.
Post 8) 3 days later. Didn’t catch up. Requests replacement.
Post 9) Defends having to replace out.
Post 10) Another request replacement post.

Mini 797

– Poof! Mafia
Townie / 3 Posts / no content
Post 1) Replaces in and says she’ll read.
Post 2) Still reading 6 days later. No content.
Post 3) 5 days later, defends falling behind with personal issue. No content.

Mini 788

– Fantasy Mafia
Mafia / 5 posts / some content
Post 1) Random joke vote.
Post 2) EBWOP Random vote.
Post 3) Question on page 2.
Post 4) 6 days later gives personal reasons for being V/LA.
Post 5) Requests replacement a week later.

Mafia 91

– Hell Aboard The Purple Flower
Vanilla Town / 2 posts / no content
Post 1) Random joke vote.
Post 2) Three days later needs to catch-up. No content.

Newbie 771 – Threat in Turino
Townie / 3 Posts / minimal content
Post 1) Replacing in, needs to read.
Post 2) Unfounded slight suspicions. Uses personal reasons to hold off from giving read.
Post 3) Requests replacement 11 days later for lack of interest.

Mini 747

– Mini 747
Vanilla Town / 19 posts / very minimal content
Post 2) Random vote for avatar.
Post 4) Talking about general discussion forum.
Post 7) No content
Post 8) Questions someone’s random vote for not having reason.
Post 10) No content.
Post 13) Votes someone she thinks is vanilla town.
Post 16) Admits to being useless in previous games and uses it as a defense to save from lynch.
Post 19) Major appeal to emotion.

Martyr Mafia

– Martyr Mafia
Cult recruit / 21 posts / very minimal content.
Post 1) Replacing in.
Post 2) Still reading.
Post 3) Finished reading but only talks about one minor point.
Post 4) No content.
Post 5) No content.
Post 7) zwet hate.
Post 9) Some opinionated stance.
Post 11) No content.
Post 12) No content.
Post 13) No content.
Post 14) Bandwagon hop.
Post 15) Says she doesn’t want to hop but its deadline.
Post 18) No content.
Post 19) No content.
Post 20) No content.
Post 21) Requests replacement.

Open 106

– Impotence Mafia
Mafia / 36 posts / active and some content
Post 1) Replaces in, gets to reading.
Post 3) A lot of questions and content.
Post 5) 6 days from last post. Personal reasons.
Post 6) Reading to catch up. (Christmas holidays)
Post 7) Announcing V/LA (chrismas holidays)
Post 10) Questions and gives opinions on player.
Post 11) More questions.
Post 12/13/14 – more game related questions and some analysis.
Post 17) more scumhunting
Post 24) content, opinion on a player
Post 28) Prods someone who is lurking and at L-1.
Post 30) weak reads, wishy-washy
Post 32) game related stance
Post 33) personal reason for not having much internet access.
Post 35) reasoned vote.

Mini 586

– Blood Red Mafia
Townie / 6 posts / some content
Post 1) Replacing in, reading game.
Post 2) A few content observations.
Post 3) Responds to questions from previous post.
Post 4) V/LA 5 days later. Unexplained vote.
Post 5) Feels wishy-washy or confused.
Post 6) 7 days later explains personal issues, no content in post.

Analysis: This is typical townie play for xofelf to say she's going to catch up and post some content, but doesn't. She is far more active as mafia and 3rd party, and plays with a purpose. She also is replaced out alot. Gives personal reasons alot, which were real when she was town before, and looks real now.

Conclusions: Replace xofelf. Don't lynch her.

[forbiddanlight]

Xofelf has assured me she doesn't need to be replaced, but I will bring up the issue again with her next I see her

[Yosarian2]

Conclusions: Replace xofelf. Don't lynch her.

I respect your analysis there, the fact that you're willing to go into that much detail makes you look more pro-town in my mind.

However, I still don't think it looks like replacing xofelf is going to be a practical option.

Anyway, on the matter with Jahudo, I think we're much better off replacing him, if we can. At the very least, if we're really set on lynching him, getting a claim out first seems like it would be more beneficial to the town.

It's practical if she doesn't respond to her prod and post in thread in the next...24ish hours, or she requests replacement

[Chaco]

You mean Jebus, I presume.

Anyways, I agree.

[Yosarian2]

(sigh) Yes, yes I mean Jebus. I've got to stop confusing names, that's already the second time this game I've done that.

Well, at least this isn't like that one game where I played with both Tamuz and Tomez, or however you spell their names.

[Chaco]

Forbs:

Any word from Cobalt? His last post was 8 days ago.

And he's almost reached the 48 hour limit on responding to a prod. Meaning he'll be forcereplaced at the same time you decide on Jebus.

[Snow_Bunny]

Well, according to elf's meta, she plays the lurker card as a town, right? If that's the case then I suggest we move towards Jebus. Either have the replacement enter the game by tomorrow morning, or let's lynch him. Though I say that having a replacement a week before deadline would make us rush a bit, but let's go with it. (

or we can just lynch MM and hit scum on D1

)

Insert generic insult here. I'm kinda bored with you. You aren't any fun

[Jahudo]

Cobalt is my top suspect. Here’s why:

About 12 of his 80-some posts are pure fluff – (0, 1, 13, 39, 43, 47, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 72.) No content in these posts. He starts spamming around page 12 and helping to get the group off-topic. That is anti-town in any case and more so in a game that is trying to get lurkers to contribute who may see the game’s length getting away from them.

About 17 posts where he initiates or furthers setup speculation. – (Posts 9, 11, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 38, 50, 51, 53, 73, 74, 79) Doing this occasionally is not scummy, but when used as a crutch to stay active and even scumhunt is a strategy I can see scum doing. I am aware that I have initiated / furthered some setup speculation too.

About 15 of his 80-some posts are lurker prods. – (Posts 10, 21, 52, 55, 56, 57, 59, 60, 61, 67, 69, 70, 71, 78, 81.) This does not make him scummy, but a lot of his focus is on the lurkers and he hasn’t dedicated as much to the active people. If the lurkers are town, I could see this strategy from scum.

Here’s the extent of his player "reads" on the active and living players:

Yosarian2

:

I don't see a case on yos that is superior to a snow/xofelf wagon.

No explanation.

Snow, why did you comment on Vi but not Yos?
Incidentally, I'm pretty sure one of them is scum but I don't know which yet.

No explanation here either.

Vi

:

Snow, why did you comment on Vi but not Yos?
Incidentally, I'm pretty sure one of them is scum but I don't know which yet.

Only mention of Vi in regards to a possible alignment. No explanation.

Snow_Bunny

: Post 55 he says he wants to vote for her but doesn’t give a reason. Post 56 he does vote for her, presumably just another lurker prod. Post 69 he wants to continue with a lurker wagon. He does say whether she looks town or scum, or should be lynched for what she’s done so far.

MonkeyMan

: Nothing about his alignment. He does interact directly with him over the Chaco vote, but I do not see any suspicion. Just questions.

Chaco

:

Chaco, was that you? I thought yours would end the day?
I guess I read him wrong, but I didn't want him lynched yet. He didn't even claim.

He previously hadn’t said anything about Chaco being scum or town, but the way he says not to lynch Chaco yet seems to indicate he’s thinking about the case as a possibility. He doesn’t explain why or why not though.

Jahudo

: Nothing in regards to a possible alignment.

That’s not much on the active people. Mostly he’s pressured Socio and the lurkers. It looks like he’s almost avoiding getting reads on the actives.

And finally, this quote:

Monkeyman, are you aware that's L-1 on Chaco?

He states that Chaco is at L-1 when he’s really at L-2. Even though Monkey had the same thought, and said he didn’t realize it, I believe only Monkey would really not notice the vote count at that point.

Consider the following:

1) Cobalt takes 3 posts (174, 175, 176) to question why Chaco has 4 votes on him from 3 people (Yos, Socio and Vi). We establish there is likely a double or secret voter, so Cobalt knows by post 178 that Chaco is at L-2.

2) In post 186 Cobalt acknowledges that Socio keeps changing his vote with every post. Just before that in 185 he asks why Socio changed his vote to Cobalt. At this point he has to know that Socio is not voting for Chaco if he is voting for Cobalt. So logically Chaco is L-3.

3) Post 189 MonkeyMan votes. Post 192 Cobalt claims that Chaco is at L-1. He of all people should not have made this mistake, because he was in the moment on each step of this wagon. Scum would benefit from this two ways: hoping to get the traditional L-1 claim from town, and putting suspicion on Monkey for being the force that gets the premature claim.

[forbiddanlight]

I think I have 1 or 2 for lynch and 3 or 4 for replace. If anyone else would like to weigh in over the next three hours?

[Chaco]

I'm for replacing.

[Vi]

He seemed enthusiastic about the theme in his first post, so I don't think its lack of interest. And he is playing in other games, so unless he gives a defense, I don't think its lack of time.

I am suspicious of him because he is a usually a serious mafia player and active, but I am more suspicious of more active people like Cobalt. I wouldn't mind giving the Jebus player slot another game day to see what a replacement does with it.

I don't buy this defense of Jebus, partly because in case you missed it Jebus is

much

more active than Cobalt recently - which I find dubiously surprising.

The Cobalt points are pretty decent though.

Incidentally,

If the lurkers are town

Do you think this is the case?