Mini 188: Texas Holdem Mafia - GAME OVER!

[EmpTyger]

From the SK’s point of view:
The first thing the SK must do to win is not die tonight. Since the mafia aren't going to be killing themselves, that means that they must hope the mafia hits an innocent. So the only question is who the SK kills. They can either hit a confirmed innocent or try for a mafia.

Assume the SK hits mafia, for whatever reason.
Then tomorrow, the situation is mafia, SK, innocent, innocent.

No innocent will vote, since it allows a scum to pick up the pot. So the all-in mechanic must be used.

If an innocent goes all-in on the SK, the SK loses.
If an innocent goes all-in on the mafia, that innocent will be unnightkillable and have the high chip stack the following day. Town wins/SK loses.
If the innocents go all-in on each other, then there is a mafia-SK-innocent endgame, and the innocent will have been confirmed by surviving the all-in. The town wins, SK loses.

If the mafia goes all-in on the SK, the SK loses.
If the mafia goes all-in on an innocent- well, then they clearly went all-in on the unconfirmed innocent. Meaning that both innocents will have more chips than the SK the following day. So regardless of who the SK nightkills, the other will be able to all-in him. The town wins/SK loses.

If the SK goes all-in on an innocent, the SK loses.
So the *only* chance the SK has is to go all-in on mafia tomorrow. In which case: he wins nightprotection, nightkills one innocent, and has the high chipcount to survive through following day.

Thus, the SK tonight should kill off a confirmed innocent (Thesp if he doesn’t take nightprotection, Aelyn if he does) to double his chances tomorrow. In which case it becomes mafia, mafia, SK, innocent, and the above still holds.


Thesp:
I will not reveal my result, because I do not want to upset the calculus. There is no way you can compel me too. I will wait until LML imposes a deadline on you.

From my POV, your investigation doesn't matter. And I don't care which of you or Aelyn survives, so I don't care if you don't get your night protection. The only possible use for you all-in reward is to take the investigation, use it, share your result with Aelyn; that way one of the 2 of you will be alive tomorrow fully aware of the full situation. But it doesn't effect me if you waste it.

And, honestly, I don’t care what you’re “beginning to think” about me. It no longer matters. <points above to the case where an innocent all-ins another innocent> If we are both alive tomorrow and you go all-in on me, the town *still* wins. So quit slowplaying and make your decision.

[Thesp]

What the flaming heck you scummity scum?

I choose night protection.

I'd be dead otherwise and the investigation would likely be irrelevant (points to mod's post). Hooray for huge chipcounts.

[Aelyn]

I'd be dead otherwise and the investigation would likely be irrelevant (points to mod's post). Hooray for huge chipcounts.

And that of course is the reason I asked. It'd be moronic to go with the night investigation, since it makes you an obvious nightkill choice.

Anyway, I fully expect to die overnight.

Goodbye town. It's been good. I'll give Thesp all my overnight thoughts and ask him to post my suspicions once I am gone.

[LoudmouthLee]

With that, Thesp cannot be killed tonight.

NIGHT

Friday, 24th - Sunrise, 12pm EST

[LoudmouthLee]

As you all go to the table for another day of poker, you notice how Quagmire just isn't around.

His cards are face up, with a note...

"I was Canine, K9o, and I was killed twice tonight. A bit overkill? WOOF!"

Quagmire - K9o, Canine - Unnightkillable w/ post restriction - Dead

5 alive, 3 to lynch...

NEW ENDGAME RULES! - Chipcounts will be frozen - ANY ALL IN ATTEMPT WILL TAKE AT LEAST *2* PEOPLE GOING ALL IN AGAINST THE PERSON. IF THE PERSON IS NOT MAFIA, BOTH MEMBERS GOING ALL IN WILL BE FOLDED! BE VERY CAREFUL NOW.

[Thesp]

I'm all in against Mastermind of Sin.

That is all.

[EmpTyger]

I’m all-in against Mastermind of Sin

[Mastermind of Sin]

ok....way to give an explanation...

I think the mafia have just won the game, but w/e. It doesn't really matter much to me anymore, since I'm we just lost two players. I got a guilty result on....should I even bother telling you? Nah, it won't matter anyways.

ALL IN AGAINST Thok

, though. Ok, so I didn't tell you straight out, but...

[Aelyn]

ok....way to give an explanation...

Here you go, here's an explanation for you.

First up, Maximus / Mastermind of Sin. I’m pretty much willing to All-In him immediately, based partially on uncertain feelings regarding him, partially because scum all-inning scum could be vital to their victory, but mostly because of these two points:
1)

I'm thinking a cop can easily make this all in thing advantageous to himself. He may find a guilty night 1, and go all-in and get vigged. But I don't see why he would want to be vigged rather than be a cop.

...And I just realized that

the cop is dead

. My bad, I guess that's what happens when you are in multiple mafia games.

…

sorry. I'm American Airlines, A-A.

I'm also a cop

. Should I reveal results now, or wait until more people have claimed?

Pointing out that “the” cop is dead is not a great idea if you are a cop.

2)

night 1, I got rajr innocent. night 2, I got Aelyn innocent. Any questions?

Convenient results, much? Someone you never mentioned day 1, and myself – perhaps the most confirmed innocent, according to basically everyone other than a known scum.

I believe that's why Thesp went all-in on you. Thesp, hope you don't mind me sharing that info.

[Aelyn]

ok....way to give an explanation...

Here you go, here's an explanation for you.

First up, Maximus / Mastermind of Sin. I’m pretty much willing to All-In him immediately, based partially on uncertain feelings regarding him, partially because scum all-inning scum could be vital to their victory, but mostly because of these two points:
1)

I'm thinking a cop can easily make this all in thing advantageous to himself. He may find a guilty night 1, and go all-in and get vigged. But I don't see why he would want to be vigged rather than be a cop.

...And I just realized that

the cop is dead

. My bad, I guess that's what happens when you are in multiple mafia games.

…

sorry. I'm American Airlines, A-A.

I'm also a cop

. Should I reveal results now, or wait until more people have claimed?

Pointing out that “the” cop is dead is not a great idea if you are a cop.

2)

night 1, I got rajr innocent. night 2, I got Aelyn innocent. Any questions?

Convenient results, much? Someone you never mentioned day 1, and myself – perhaps the most confirmed innocent, according to basically everyone other than a known scum.

I believe that's why Thesp went all-in on you. Thesp, hope you don't mind me sharing that info.

[Thesp]

Yeah, that'd be it.

And given the fact we have either a mafia with 2 people left and a serial killer, or a 2-person mafia and a 1-person mafia, or the unlikely scenario that there's only a 1-person mafia and a Serial Killer left make all you non-mason-types scum. No problems with the sharing the info at all.

[LoudmouthLee]

Mastermind of Sin, AA, Serial Killer, is defeated.

All of a sudden, Emptyger and Thok begin to giggle. Their last little person standing in the way has been removed.

Aelyn and Thesp did all that they could to really make it a contest, and the momentum was beginning to shift, however...

Aelyn - AK - Big Slick - Killed in Endgame

Thesp - AQ - Big Chick - Killed in Endgame

(Rationale: End game means 2 people must all-in. Either Thesp or Aelyn would be killed at night, leaving 2 votes against 1 and no AI possibility.)

Emptyger - A8 - Deadman's Hand - Mafia GF
and
Thok - 45 - Jesse James - Mafia Goon

WINS!

Feel free to discuss!

[Aelyn]

Bugger. After I suggested to Thesp that we all-in immediately, I realised that if MoS was SK the game was over.

Wait a sec - the game was over anyway. The Mafia could have All-Inned MoS, since it was obvious that me and Thesp were telling the truth, and the result was the same.

Oh well. It feels kind of annoying to have lost after a single missed lynch, but there you go. Aside from that, good game LML!

[LoudmouthLee]

Bugger. After I suggested to Thesp that we all-in immediately, I realised that if MoS was SK the game was over.

Wait a sec - the game was over anyway. The Mafia could have All-Inned MoS, since it was obvious that me and Thesp were telling the truth, and the result was the same.

Oh well. It feels kind of annoying to have lost after a single missed lynch, but there you go. Aside from that, good game LML!

Well, if you and Thesp would have killed MAFIA, instead of the SK, you had a chance.

[LoudmouthLee]

and PS: Iammars really hurt the situation, coupled with Quagmire not posting correctly.

[Thesp]

I'd pegged Thok as SK all the way. Wow. Oops.

Did you plan this game out, LML, or did you make up rules as you went along? It felt a lot like the latter.

Also, speaking with my wife now after the game, did the hider not get doc protection at all? Also, the all-in mechanic made being first to be on in the day a wee bit too important.

I had EmpTyger pegged as townie until the day where he tried to choreograph the killers' choices. Good job up until then. Still won anyways, good job.

Also, what was with Bamboomancer claiming his role was "quite powerful" when it wasn't (only confirmable), then not using it to confirm himself? Wow.

[Aelyn]

Bugger. After I suggested to Thesp that we all-in immediately, I realised that if MoS was SK the game was over.

Wait a sec - the game was over anyway. The Mafia could have All-Inned MoS, since it was obvious that me and Thesp were telling the truth, and the result was the same.

Oh well. It feels kind of annoying to have lost after a single missed lynch, but there you go. Aside from that, good game LML!

Well, if you and Thesp would have killed MAFIA, instead of the SK, you had a chance.

I don't like the game boiling down to a real-life scenario; we basically had to decide, of the three killers, who was most likely to be SK AND both get online before both scum did. It's kinda tough, you know.

Remember, we only provided one of the two all-ins today.

[LoudmouthLee]

I'd pegged Thok as SK all the way. Wow. Oops.

Did you plan this game out, LML, or did you make up rules as you went along? It felt a lot like the latter.

Also, speaking with my wife now after the game, did the hider not get doc protection at all? Also, the all-in mechanic made being first to be on in the day a wee bit too important.

I had EmpTyger pegged as townie until the day where he tried to choreograph the killers' choices. Good job up until then. Still won anyways, good job.

Also, what was with Bamboomancer claiming his role was "quite powerful" when it wasn't (only confirmable), then not using it to confirm himself? Wow.

This was VERY planned out. The balancing of this game was near impossible. I hiope you enjoyed it.

[kristocker]

I've never played in a game with a hider role before, so I don't realize how someone I protected died the same night as me. My death wouldn't stop the protection, would it? Or does the hider die if the person they hide with dies? If so, why would a doc's protection not protect them in that instance?

[Dranko20]

I win too! I win too! :D

[Quagmire]

DAMN my posting suckiness!

[EmpTyger]

Thanks all and mod for the game.

Our original plan was to have Thok do the killing while Dranko and I tried to be as innocent as possible, using my status as godfather and the harmlessness of “sailboats”. Unfortunately, our first kill failed, the setup became unpredictable, and we never thought up a decent ability for sailboats.

I handled the nightkills starting on the second night, to ensure I wasn’t roleblocked, as I planned on claiming an investigate role. I wanted to claim my true hand (A8- Dead Man’s Hand) as a “superdeputy”- I could assume the abilities of a hand that died the previous night. But when I realized that there were 5 aces out already (which I goofed on, because I forgot to count Thok’s fabricated 6th ace) I panicked and scrambled to 99. I was planning on using some line about how “I’m not an investigator, but I play one on TV” and the fact that I was the sidekick to explain why I’d be an insane cop. Although honestly there wasn’t much point to claiming; by the time any innocents could do anything, they would know the setup. So I focused on misdirecting the other killing group.

Thok read MoS; I was honestly really torn between MoS and Quagmire, which is why I hadn’t gone all-in Day 2; I couldn’t figure out the setup. I thought they *both* were incredibly suspicious. Quagmire sounded like he was making his role up out of thin air; MoS’s role didn’t fit his hand, but “Bullets” or “Pocket Rockets” fit scum. Both were lurking Day 1 near to or past the point of being replaced.

I wasn’t sure what Dranko was trying with his claim; he’ll have to explain that. And you’ll have to ask Thok about requesting drinks. I thought it clever, and it serendipitously dovetailed nicely with Iammars’s role, but I panicked when the mod said it had game relevance!


Aelyn:

<snip>Wait a sec - the game was over anyway. The Mafia could have All-Inned MoS, since it was obvious that me and Thesp were telling the truth, and the result was the same.

Oh well. It feels kind of annoying to have lost after a single missed lynch, but there you go.<snip>

It was a race- if you and Thesp all-ined Thok before Thok and I all-in MoS, you win. Though I can all-in Thok with one of you if worst comes to worst and make MoS kingmaker. (making me a kingmakermaker?)


Bamboo:
I was thinking that you were unnightkillable, with your “really powerful role given the setup” hinting. My metagame speculation was that LML would undervalue the role given his experiences with it in the Les Miserables Mafia.


Iammars:
What happened Night 2? As a confirmed innocent with the high chipcount, you should have stayed put and had the doctor protect you. (And we weren’t going to risk wasting a nightkill with the remote possibility that there wasn’t a doctor.) We got *extremely* lucky that you got yourself killed- if we hadn’t offed the doctor and you stayed alive, you and the doctor (confirmable by all-ining any counterclaimer) could mutually protect each other every night. Were you required to use your ability each night?


kristocker:
I thought the way hiding works is that if Iammars chooses scum to hides with, he is killed regardless of doctor protection. (Which is why it was a huge mistake for him to use his ability that night, provided he had the option of not using it- which I think he did, since he didn’t say that he hid with anyone night 1.) I killed you, and I’m assuming MoS killed rajrhcpfreak. So the only way I can explain a third nightkill in the same night is from Iammars ability. Mod or Iammars, correct me if I’m wrong.


MoS:
I was really surprised that you killed Quagmire; I honestly thought your best chance was to leave him alive and hope he was guilty, and go all-in on him Day 3. Though as it happened, you couldn’t have won anyhow. Your role had such a near-impossible win condition that I was doubting that the game could have a SK, and that the other killing group made more sense as a second mafia. Out of curiosity, how did you react to my twilight posts?

For the record, this makes up for Newbie 85.


Quagmire:
Did your ability protect you the first night? The way you phrased it, it sounded like it wouldn’t, which is one reason I thought you were lying. (Thok targeted you Night 1.)


rajrhcpfreak:
I think I’ve finally learned how to spell your name (within 2 tries).


Thesp:

<snip>I had EmpTyger pegged as townie until the day where he tried to choreograph the killers' choices. Good job up until then. Still won anyways, good job.<snip>

Thank you; I knew that would all but give me away. I actually was sorely tempted to claim scum, and reveal that I held *another* ace! But at that point the SK/second killing group might not be aware of the full situation, and I wanted to keep up the illusion for their sake. And as Aelyn and LML can attest to, historically my humorous attempts at claiming scum backfire...
I was a little suspicious of you Day 2 for pumping MoS for information. I’m not sure whether it was correct to end the day when you did, since we hadn’t gone all-in yet. But you were correct in that if we found the SK, we could win in then and there, so it was probably better to err on the side of haste. (In theory. In practice, all-in rewards and the endgame rule changed the math, and I never bothered to recalculate.)

And for the record, I realized afterwards that my “honestly, I don’t care what you’re ‘beginning to think’ about me” in [250] could be interpreted a lot more harshly than I intended, so I probably deserved your retort in [251]. I was intending to communicate that the game would not affected by whether you thought me protown or antitown; I should have said “…about my alignment” instead of “…about me” to make my meaning clear. I apologize for the disrespectful phrasing; it was entirely unintentional.


Mod:
Could we have a breakdown of nightactions? Specifically, what happened to the kill Night 1? Also, hypothetically, what would have happened, if Thesp and I all-ined Thok instead of MoS? Just for fun, who did StD investigate, and what was his sanity? An insane cop would have been hilarious with this setup...

Will post more comments for you in another post tomorrow.

[Thok]

Wow.

Also, freaking masons. (I'm tempted to request that as a title). I was certain that Aelyn was a roleblocker on day 2, and that you had roleblocked me at least night 1. I seriously thought about claiming something like Doyle Bronson as hand cop and claim that you role-blocked me, which would have been disasterous. If I had internet access at all after Thesp claimed mason, I would have all-inned MOS.

I'm glad to see my attempts to seem pro-town worked (in a sense).

I've already explained the drinks-at the time I thought there was a small blind/big blind/dealer mechanic, and I figured I might as well check to see if drinks did anything. Incidentally *chugs remaining 2 day old scotch*

Despite the result, it really felt like this game favored the town. For example, a Bamboomancer role claim day 1 would have made this a rout for the town.

MOS, I feel for you. You had a near impossible role to play.

Finally, thanks to my scum partners. Emptyger, it was a pleasure playing with you, and thanks for the brilliant Baskin-Robbins role claim. Dranko, I'm not sure I approve of your style of play (what was up with that role claim?) but our fighting turned out to win the game for us.

[Iammars]

I don't know what I was thinking. I figured that you all thought that MoS was next on the line, so I went for him. After Bamboo died, looking at this now, I had a 50/50 chance of dying. Oh well.

I still am angry at Bamboo for targeting me N1. I'll get over it soon, don't worry.

[Quagmire]

Quagmire:
Did your ability protect you the first night? The way you phrased it, it sounded like it wouldn’t, which is one reason I thought you were lying. (Thok targeted you Night 1.)

I dunno. Probably.