Mini 852- Crayola Catastrophe Game Over (Post 1158)

[Nachomamma8]

A 3 person mafia is typical in my experience, with 1 third party role to make 4 total scum. But I have only seen a jester in a mini once before, and that only had 2 mafia.

That makes my top suspect Nacho, and my default second Kirby. But honestly, I'm considering a Chibo lynch just for the results and because

I don't think we're in MYLO

. Unless Nacho is GF or Chibo is paranoid, lynching Chibo would give us 2 flips for 1 on people who are probably not among tonight's NK targets. There are some "ifs" in this plan, so I want to just talk about it now while we all name top suspects.

Jahudo, why don't you think we're in MYLO?

[Jahudo]

There would need to be a 3-man scum team for us to be in mylo. That does not seem to balance well against the power roles we have or think we have.

[Nachomamma8]

But it is entirely possible that we have a three person scum team, and you want to lynch someone who we have considerable reason to be a cop. Are you really sure you want to put this game on the line from a hunch?

I guess I don't have the same confidence as you do; I'd rather spring for a no-lynch and have a guaranteed result from Chibo than lynch him and possibly end the game... Also, if there is a two-man scum team, we won't pay fatally for it. After all, no matter which way you look at it, we basically have a mislynch and a no lynch's worth of lenience.

So,

Unvote, Vote: No Lynch

[Kirbyoshi]

I wouldn't call it

considerable

reason. As has been stated, it's just as likely that Chibo is lying. Since it's generally agreed he's not paranoid, if we lynch you, we'll probably know whether he's lying or not.

[elvis_knits]

No lynch is against my religion, and especially since nacho suggested it as a means to protect chibo...

unvote; vote nachomamma

Not only do I really think chibo is scum, but nacho attacked chibo for most of the day, so protecting chibo now with a nolynch is very odd to me.

[Nachomamma8]

You're missing my point. If there's three scum, and if we lynch wrong, we lose. Do you have ANY reason whatsoever to KNOW that there's two scum instead of three, or if you are pretty damn sure that someone is scum, then enlighten me. But right now, I'd rather improve my chances than lose.

[Battousai]

Vote Count:

Kirbyoshi (2)- Yankee, ChiboSempai
Nachomamma8 (2)- Kirbyoshi, elvis_knits
ChiboSempai (1)- Pomegranate
Pomegranate (1)- SocioPath
No Lynch (1)- Nachomamma8

Not voting (1): Jahudo

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

Deadline is Nov 6 at 8:30pm (GMT-5)!

[elvis_knits]

You're missing my point. If there's three scum, and if we lynch wrong, we lose. Do you have ANY reason whatsoever to KNOW that there's two scum instead of three, or if you are pretty damn sure that someone is scum, then enlighten me. But right now, I'd rather improve my chances than lose.

I am not sure of anything, just like I don't think I will be sure of anything tomorrow. The only thing we will accomplish is have another dead townie from a nightkill (which will probably be successful whether we have a doc or not).

So, yes we will have better odds of hitting scum because the lynch pool is lower, but we will also have one less townie. And if you think questionable-sanity-chibo is going to help a lot tomorrow, think again. He might not be able to help at all, and then where will we be? Generally, in mafia I don't like no-lynch. I don't do it except in rare circumstances, or when I'm scum.

[Yankee]

I dont like the No Lynch either, i guess because i lost a game before because of it when i was a town, but it doesnt mean that i think Nacho is scum because of it. Sometimes it seems like you have a good idea as a townie and then when you go to tell people about it, it comes out wrong or others think it is a bad idea and start a bandwagon on you for your idea. I wont do that because frankly i just dont see Nacho being mafia

[elvis_knits]

Why are you now thinking nacho is town? Your last post said this:

agreed with E_K, i have never seen a game with no protection role of some sort. Still suspicious of Kirby and Nacho..

..

Now he suggests no-lynch and that reverses your read of him??

[Kirbyoshi]

@EK: He said he doesn't think Nacho is scum

because of it

. That could be taken two ways. I take it to mean "it doesn't make him any scummier" rather than "it makes him less scummy". In other words, he's still suspicious of Nacho, but the NL vote doesn't change it one way or the other.

[elvis_knits]

Kirby... pay special attention to the end in bold.

I dont like the No Lynch either, i guess because i lost a game before because of it when i was a town, but it doesnt mean that i think Nacho is scum because of it. Sometimes it seems like you have a good idea as a townie and then when you go to tell people about it, it comes out wrong or others think it is a bad idea and start a bandwagon on you for your idea. I wont do that because

frankly i just dont see Nacho being mafia

[Kirbyoshi]

Ah yes; didn't see that. Thanks.

[Yankee]

because that last game i played that i lost because of a no lynch is when there were 5 people left, 3 town and 2 mafia. I had claimed cop and i was the real cop, i had investigated one of the townies and had put that out their, so i knew me and this other guy were town, then one of the scum counter claimed me with his scum buddy leaving just 1 townie to decide the fate of the town. And you know what, he voted not to vote..... and the two mafia quickly agreed leading to a mafia win. Since that is the only dealings with No Lynch i have ever had, it gave me a town vibe from Nacho to propose it for his own reasoning, but it doesnt mean i like it or agree with it. And i am still suspicious of Nacho as well as everyone else, but i am losing suspicion of Kirby and Nacho at the time being. I am not quite sure who to go for... I am going to have to pay more attention to Socio and Jahuda to make a more informed decision....

[ChiboSempai]

No lynch would be an awful choice right now, we should be able to make a somewhat logical enough decision based on what we know.

Did anyone read my post 1022? No one commented on it, and I thought it made perfect sense for who the play today should be.

The play should be one of the vanilla claims, either Kirb, Jahudo, or Nacho. It would be beneficial to wait one more day before we lynch Nacho since everyone is fairly sure I'm not paranoid due to balance reasons and the fact that I got a guilty on him, so the play should either be Kirb of Jahudo. It really doesn't matter which, though of the two I found Kirb slightly scummier.

[elvis_knits]

You're not being very clear. I can't tell what you think of nacho.

Still suspicious of Kirby and Nacho...

.

frankly i just dont see Nacho being mafia

And i am still suspicious of Nacho as well as everyone else, but i am losing suspicion of Kirby and Nacho at the time being.

I think the entire premise of assuming nacho is town because he wants to no-lynch is a bad one. The example you cited led to town losing despite the fact that it was a townie who suggested nolynch. That should tell you how much no-lynch can hurt a town.

But even if you think that (that suggesting nolynch is protown), you're still being unclear and going back and forth a lot on nacho. You're really flip-floppy.

I don't like it because it is a common scum tactic to say you are suspicious of your buddy, for sake of distancing, while voting someone else. So in this situation you're saying you're suspicious of nacho and kirby, while voting kirby and defending nacho. It's very odd to me for you to defend nacho if you're suspicious of him. IF his nolynch idea changed your read, that is one thing (I disagree but I could see how personal experience might lead you to that conclusion). But for you to keep going back and forth from suspicion to "i don't think he's mafia" is very odd.

[ChiboSempai]

Forgot to add, I will investigate tonight the other vanilla that is still meaning. Meaning if we lynch Kirb, I'll investigate Jahudo. If we lynch Jahudo, I'll investigate Kirb.

There is no way both (or all 3) mafia could or would be able to pull off power role claims, at least one of those 3 vanilla HAVE to be scum. Providing I get my verdict to you guys tomorrow *cough* doctor protection plz *cough*

Then...

Say we lynch one of the three today and they flip scum. Awesome, we got one. I get the report on the other one and we have reports on both remaining vanillas. In the rare chance in this situation I get a innocent claim, then we nab a second mafia, and confirm that I am insane and not paranoid. However in the chance that only one of the mafia members are a vanilla I wouldn't be surprised if we lynched a mafia that my report would turn up as guilty.

Say we lynch one of the three today and they flip town. Then I get the report on the third and itl say either guilty or innocent. Assuming I'm insane and not paranoid, it should say innocent and we found a scum and confirmed the other to be town. In the chance that we lynch a town today (from the 3 vanilla) and I get a guilty verdict, it would be extremely likely that I would be paranoid.

[elvis_knits]

I do not want to play "follow the cop" with someone who I think is scum, and who is begging for doc protect, and plans to lead us around for days with this godawful plan that may end with him goin "oh, hey sorry I guess I'm paranoid, teehee!"

[Yankee]

I see where both of you are coming from, E_K and Chibo, but i tend to want to go with Chibo's plan, because what other option do we have. And no, i dont consider a no lynch a valid option. As for my opinion on Nacho, it keeps changing, i guess i cant read him very well. I was suspicious of him for a while, but then i started to think of him as a townie after Chibo claimed because i personally believe that Chibo is insane instead of paranoid. But that doesnt rule out the possibility of him being paranoid and with all the suspicious activity i have noted in Nacho, if Chibo does flip paranoid then i would want to lynch Nacho. Hope that helps to sum up my feeling on Nacho clearly and concisely as possible.

[Pomegranate]

We don't know whether Chibo is insane or paranoid, so we can't depend on his night result to win us the game. I don't think that Chibo is the correct lynch today, as he is a claimed PR, but I still don't like him. I'll look at him more tomorrow if necessary. I'm trying to decide whether I should vote for Nacho or Yankee, who's been acting scummier in the past couple of pages. I'll probably vote for Nacho as the deadline is deadline is quickly approaching. Makes sense?

[ChiboSempai]

No, it doesn't really make sense.

Uhg. Take it a step at a time then.

Can everyone agree with me that there is a very likely chance that one of the three claimed vanillas is actually scum?

[Pomegranate]

Yeah, it's likely, but there happen to be three of them.

But as deadline is approaching, we need some semblance of agreement...

Vote: Nacho

.

[Jahudo]

No lynch is a bad idea. NK likely wont get rid of a suspect, and Chibo's results don't mean anything until we kill either him or scum he investigated.

A vanilla lynch is a good option. I can agree with it, whatever we end up deciding.

I feel that Nacho has been more questionable than Kirby, but I don't like how a paranoid cop would fit into this setup. Anythings possible setup-wise, and I shouldn't be trying to outguess the mod in that respect.

[Pomegranate]

I'd like some suggestions for who to protect tonight. I obviously won't be saying one person who I'll specifically be protecting, but some suggestions would be good.

[ChiboSempai]

If we agree that one of the vanillas is scum, then by just tonight we can get dirt on all three of them.

I already have a result on Nacho, we lynch one of the other 2, and the 3rd one gets investigated tonight.

Unless we can also decide that if the vanilla we lynch flips scum, then I investigate one of the power role "pairs" to see if their story matches up since it's less likely that 2 of the 3 vanillas are scum.