Mini 867- TTGL Mafia: GAME OVER: Roles posted.

[Jahudo]

I found the first scum.

Vote: MonkeyMan576

[Jahudo]

What happens if we try to kill someone who is unlynchable? I feel like this question came up in a fl game before...

I'm willing to go along with Sera's claim for now. I don't need to know his abilities or junk, but he better not get lazy. Better not.

Vote: MonkeyMan576

[Jahudo]

@Sera, are you still sticking to your SK claim? Or did you retract it?

What happens if we try to kill someone who is unlynchable? I feel like this question came up in a fl game before...

I'm willing to go along with Sera's claim for now. I don't need to know his abilities or junk, but he better not get lazy. Better not.

Vote: MonkeyMan576

You're willing to go along with his unrealistic claim, so automatically everyone else is?

What do you mean by unrealistic? The power, or the flavor, or both? And I don't know what you mean by "automatically everyone else is?"

I have no reason to believe or disbelieve his claim right now. With a fl game I know to keep an open mind, so I want to see how things unfold.

What happens if we try to kill someone who is unlynchable? I feel like this question came up in a fl game before...

1) It's in the rules.
2 @bolded) ??

1) What, the part about anyone being lynched regardless of them being in the game or not?
2) Tomato, tomahto. Lynching is a form of killing.

I'm willing to go along with Sera's claim for now. I don't need to know his abilities or junk, but he better not get lazy. Better not.

...or what?

Or he'll hurt the game's flow. Regardless, he's already made the vegas odds for an early exit. All too many times we've seen a player implode for one reason or another that hurt the town. I don't want to rush a lynch and find out he's town that gambited wrong.

[Jahudo]

I'm willing to go along with Sera's claim for now. I don't need to know his abilities or junk, but he better not get lazy. Better not.

...or what?

Or he'll hurt the game's flow.

[stuff that isn't really relevant at all]

Is that really the best threat you can come up with? You don't seem to be interested at all in the possibility of Seraphim being scum.

If he needs a prod, I'll come up with something. I am very interested in the possibility of Sera being scum, and when I find him doing something scummy I'll report it.

I'm treating his day-kill like a vidge that kills on Night 0 until I have a reason to think its a scum kill. I'm treating his claim like someone who's playing a gambit in a Tarhalindur-style game, which could become a good strategy as town. Do you think either of these things is scummy?

I'll admit, I'm rather skeptical; last time I saw someone claiming that on day 1, they were lying. What's even more frustrating, they were a lying pro-town role, and when we lynched them (because of course you should always lynch someone who claims to be unlynchable) it did serious damage to the town.

Werewolves of Millers Hollow, that's the game I was thinking of too. He might be lying about his claim, and still be town. I just want to be sure what he is, because from what Sera's already done and said we should be able to decide whether we want to lynch him right now.

[Jahudo]

There's about a 60% chance he's just flat out lying scum. In that case, we lynch him.

There's about a 30% chance he's town telling the truth. In that case, unless he gives us a reason not to, we speedlynch him, confirm his claimed ability, and then move on quickly rather then waste any more time debating him today, if he really is unlynchable and if lynching him really dosn't end the day. If there's some reason we shoudln't do this, Serephem, you'd better fill us in fast.

The other 10% chance is that he's a lying pro-town daykiller who's acting like kind of a VI this game, killing townies at random and then lying about being unlynchable (that level of VI-ness dosn't really seem to fit what I know about Serephem, so I don't find it that likely). If he is, then hopefully he'll confess and tell us the truth as soon as he realizes we're serious and actually are about to lynch him, and then we can hopefully get this whole confusing mess sorted out.

Even if he didn't claim unlynchable, I'd be voting him right now until he gives a better explination for that daykill. Since he did, though, there's really no reason for anyone to NOT be voting him right now.

Where are these percentages coming from? Under normal circumstances the first two options are a good enough gut feeling for me to test his claim, but I wonder if we're trying to outguess the mod this way.

What about the possibility that Sera's telling the truth as town, but another force unknown to us allows the lynch to go through anyway? For example, anyone in this game can be lynched according to the rules. What does that mean for contradicting claims and people not in the game?

Oh hey, Rule 18 added. I'm amazed I forgot this...it's kinna important

[Jahudo]

unvote
Vote: Seraphim

Rule 18 eliminates my concern.

[Jahudo]

Just to clarify my stance, I believe that hammering Seraphim will do nothing. Day will not end, fl will shrug and say to keep playing, and then we'll all unvote and find scum.

Now let's here more from Jebus, xofelf and Cacho. They really haven't given an opinion on Sera yet.

[Jahudo]

Based on past games with Seraphim, I don't think he'd make a lying gambit as town.

[Jahudo]

Based on past games with Seraphim, I don't think he'd make a lying gambit as town.

Most townies don't lie...this doesn't explain why you don't think he's scum.

I don't think he's done anything outright scummy.

[Jahudo]

It looks like our mod is all

tied-up

at the moment
But she's

bound

to get a VC up sooner or later

*points to signature*

My bad, and by the time I have time to go in depth. . .hammer is dropped.

Did you think day had ended when you wrote this post? That's what it reads like to me.

[Jahudo]

This doesn't confirm all of Sera's role to me. I think he still has to earn townieness through his play.

If Serephem flips scum, my main suspect is probably going to be Snow_Bunny.

Just to clarify, does this statement apply to both third-party scum and mafia scum, or just one type of scum?

If Sera is in the mafia, Jebus and xofelfs non-commiting stances to the giga drill breaker would be a waste of easy distancing, so I wouldn't look to them first as scumbuddies. Chaco and MonkeyMan's FoS'es were strong enough to lay the groundwork of distancing.

If Sera is town, his early unlynchable claim would have stalled scum's opportunity to suspect an easy target. Only Vi posted before the claim, and it looks like normal Vi behavior (measured logic as scum or town) to me.

Snow_bunnys post 63 looks scummy if Sera is town or scum. The condemnation of a bad play is strong enough to be distancing, and stocked with emotive words that scum sometimes use to come across as naturally concerned about a townie death (same thing as commenting on a NK in a "yay dead scum" or "boo dead townie" manner).

The acceptance of the claim makes sense for scum to be discouraged about losing an easy target:

though Seraphim's action may seem scummy, there's really nothing to prove his role wrong

Or dropping the issue of his scumminess if there's a trigger to make scum-Sera lynchable.

Vote: Snow_Bunny

I'm still mildly suspicious of Jebus and xofelfs lack of content.
MonkeyMan's overlooking the lynch scene in p58 is lazy but not scummy.
Chaco's random vote doesn't mean anything to me.

[Jahudo]

Not for the whole game, at least. I find it plausible that scum could have something like a 1-shot protection from a lynch or kill, that is either natural or a result of a trigger. If scum are overpowered in that way, there's likely something in place to underpower scum or overpower town again.

Personally, I'm leaning Sera as town but I want him to still be motivated to be pro-active.

I don't expect anything in this setup, but I'm open to nearly all possibilities.

[Jahudo]

I find a scum role with the ability to interfere with a lynch highly improbable.
Vi, why exactly would you not vote a claimed SK?

A scum role that stops a lynch is called a Governor.

[Jahudo]

According to the wiki, and past games on this site, they can be scum.

[Jahudo]

Double voter doesn't make sense based on previous wagons. Secret voter could be possible, either town or scum I guess.

If its going to show up on the vote counts, we just have to be aware of it until we have a better idea of the how and why. Because of it, though, I have a mild suspicion on fl. Her comments inserted into posts feel overly coy in this situation.

That reminds me,
@Everybody: Do you think the mod is a player (ie: has a role PM/win condition) in this game? Why/why not?

My opinion: Yes. Why: See tarhalindur or natirasha's mind screw games, fl's own poof mafia marathon game.

[Jahudo]

@Monkeyman: why are you voting Chaco and not your top suspect?

[Jahudo]

@MonkeyMan: Did you think Chaco was at L-2 before you placed your vote? Did you check the vote count and read the posts before you before making your own post? Why did you miss Socio's post?

@Cobalt: Did you check the vote count and read the posts before you before making your own post that said Chaco was at L-1? Why did you miss Socio's post?

You placed the vote without mentioning it. I usually see people calling for a claim or something when someone hits L-1.

That is complete falsified lies. Monkey never placed a L-1 vote. Chaco at any point has never been at L-1.

Unvote
Vote: Cobalt

Over eager scum it seems like you may be.

Valid point. He either missed Socio's vote change or was trying to make Monkey's unexplained vote look even worse. Monkey's agreement that he thought he was at L-1 looks suspicious whether he was paying attention or not.

@SocioPath: Do you still think Monkey and Chaco are scumbuddies? Where does that place Cobalt? Third-party or another scumbuddy?

Socio, if you have a post restriction, I want you to vote me in your next post.

I'm Anti Spiral Void, however, I am town. Think of me as an auto lyncher. I have a one time shot that allows me to lynch a person instantly. If you want me to prove this, I have no qualms with killing Socio.

I can believe the power considering Sera's day kill was also a one-shot, IIRC. You've been V/LA too much for me to get much of a read. And I think you claimed prematurely, but I don't think that was your doing because Cobalt and Monkey both indicated L-1.

At this time I'm on the fence about SP; half his posts are things I can fully agree with and the other half (like this most recent one) aren't.

Can you give examples?

I like his latest post for pointing out the thing that probably caused a premature claim. His no lynch concern might be over-the-top, but he's right to prefer scumhunting over theory talk right now. His pairing of Chaco and Monkey over one post looks premature and reaching, but at least he's looking at them individually too. I haven't noticed his vote hopping to be affected by group opinion, so it doesn't look opportunistic and jumpy at the moment. Overall I get a town feeling on him.

[Jahudo]

I agree with Yosarian2's plan for testing Chaco's claim.

I'd rather not have to roleclaim.

Unnecessary AtE here. You're not close to L-1.

[Jahudo]

I don't like that day kill. A man must always confront another man before he kills them.

xofelf and Jebus are V/LA. I highly doubt Sera's role allowed him two day kills a day. Chaco's real power can make him an unlikely killer here. Monkey and Cobalt look like red herrings from Socio's focus on them.

It's either Yos or snow as they're now pushing the Monkey lynch, who is a red herring and has looked like an easy target all day. Most of his posts I'd put under playstyle (not alignment) tells based on a previous game I had with him. Monkey looks like a mislynch waiting to happen.

Vote: Snow_Bunny

Easily my top suspect now.

[Jahudo]

I find it odd for you to single me out.

You can see that I had already eliminated the other players from my thought process. I was looking for the killer, not all the people suspecting Monkeyman.

However, Cobalt or Monkeyman could be trying to make the other look like the killer. I need to read again and see if that makes sense along with the general timing of the kill.

[Jahudo]

My 2nd suspect is Cobalt.
-Lots of posts but not much scumhunting within those posts. Some fluff and nosie posts. More setup and theory related posts that look like he's trying to stay active. But not much scumhunting.

-Cases on xofelf for lurking when she's not the only lurker; Socio for vote hopping, which is a valid point but Cobalt does not have a tone of suspicion over Socio so it looks soft; and Snow, which doesn't give a reason except the implied reason of lurking (he held back in thinking she was V/LA as opposed to lurking).

At least two of the scum in this game are in {Jahudo, Yos2, one of the lurkers/nonparticipants}.
What's currently bothering me is that I wouldn't mind lynching Snow_Bunny

or

Jahudo; I don't think both of them are Mafia though.

What have the lurkers done that is scummy? Can you restate your top scum reads? They seem vague to me, but this post suggests confidence.

[Jahudo]

I suppose I could help people put sunglasses on their avatars, though fl seems to be having alot of fun.

Let me know if Kison's taking too long.

I was looking for the killer, not all the people suspecting Monkeyman.However, Cobalt or Monkeyman could be trying to make the other look like the killer. I need to read again and see if that makes sense along with the general timing of the kill.

Wait...so you're not looking for scum in general, you're just looking for the guy who made the daykill?

I tried looking for the killer among the people that look scummy in general, like S_B. If that means finding the scum-killer, great. If that means finding general scum, great too.

The killer possibility is not the reason I'm voting S_B though, its the scummy behavior.

[Jahudo]

I love how Boxman put Kamina sunglasses on his box even though he's dead.

[Jahudo]

I made one for xof too, but oh well.

[Jahudo]

That one guy isn't facing the right way, but maybe the white thing is? I forget who Tar said it was.


I really think the baby can pull it off.

Thanks ^-^

[Jahudo]

Monkey is scum. Trust me.

I'll trust you only if you're right. But if he flips town, then we can't trust you. And if we can't trust you, you must be lying scum. And if you're lying scum, we lynch you tomorrow. That sound about right?

In the meantime, xofelf can you tell us what you think after reading the game? Top suspects? Townie people? Do you believe the claims?

[Jahudo]

Vi seems to be holding everyone up to certain standards based on her meta.
Vi, do you have a meta on everyone? How recent have you looked at other people's games? How many games?

[Jahudo]

I still don’t see the case on Monkey, but S_B’s confidence wouldn’t be a very good scum strategy. Maybe they’re both town, I’ll have to read some S_B meta.

@Seraphim: Where would your vote go if Jebus was replaced today? Would it stay on the replacement, or move somewhere else?

@Chaco: What do you think about S_B’s confidence in Monkey being scum? Do you think it makes more sense coming from town or scum?

@xofelf: Are you suggesting that we lynch, or even consider lynching, a player that has already been killed?

I don’t think speculation will get us anywhere in a setup that feels complex. Best to analyze the things people have said. So:

Xofelf: What do you think about Cobalt and MM misreading the vote count on Chaco?
What do you think about S_B’s confidence regarding MonkeyMan’s alignment?

@Snow_Bunny: Do you think scum aren’t given safeclaims from people in team Dai Gurren? If so, wouldn’t the game be breakable by a character claim?

Do you think only MM was going for an easy mislynch on the voting miscount, or do you think Cobalt or someone else was in on it too?

@Vi: Was New Age Mafia really a year ago?

When you say town Yos never has a vote, does that mean there’s never a vote of suspicion on him when he plays as town? Was he ever lynched in your games?

When you say Monkey doesn’t see D2, does that mean he’s always lynched D1?

When you say Cobalt’s play is not out of the ordinary, does that include fluff spamming?

@Yosarian2: Where would your vote go if Jebus was replaced today? Would it stay on the replacement, or move somewhere else?

[Jahudo]

There was a point in which I was 15% considering insta-lynching him. But that would be 3 dead in a single day phase, which would not be good.

Are you suggesting a no lynch here?

[Jahudo]

I’m starting to like Snow_Bunny continued confidence. It plays into her limited townie meta (which could mean nothing because I can’t find scum meta) and shows she’s not second guessing how she’s leaving herself open to attacks.

unvote

I am reading Yosarian2's recent actions as mildly suspicious for the following reasons:

1) Vague suspicions on MonkeyMan and SB allow for potential backtracking because they were not defined. There's also the potential for stacking lynches because he pairs Snow_Bunny and MonkeyMan in such a way that could later mean they look like partners, or one looks more scummy if the other is town (cuz they suspect each other).

Vote:Monkeyman
Really, really odd play coming from him.

Snow looked scummy, but she's not a lurker

I think both Snowbunny and Monkey have acted scummy so far this game.

I do find both snowbunny and monkeyman somewhat scummy, for different reasons.

These reasons and relationships need to be defined before the day is done.

2) Focuses on lurkers that aren’t interacting with him. I think he’s gone past prodding Jebus and xofelf to the point where he's not into the group conversation as much. This feels bad to me because he's critical of lurkers for not being in the group conversation.

Vote: Yosarian2

[Jahudo]

Yos, what do you think of Jahudo's accusation that you're "not in the group conversation"?

I think it's absurd. I've been a big part of "the group conversation" all game.

What's your definition of the group conversation? Mine does not include setup, theory or general gameplay talk. It does include stances and questions for the other players in the game when multiple people find a reason to focus on them. You have made vague observations about several people, but mostly and recently Monkey and SB.

The lurker focus isn't a big deal now that I remember that's how you play. I disagree on how best to handle lurkers, but I can believe that you mean it when you're town.

[Jahudo]

@lurker voters:
What is the endgame of voting a lurker like xofelf, who I believe is just having V/LA issues? Do you lynch them if they don't show up after a certain period of time? Say deadline is today and nothing is changed. Would you rather lynch xofelf, who has little-to-no connections, or someone like Jahudo who could have connections with everybody? Me, I'd vote Jahudo. But that's just me.

I'm getting the increasing feeling SB is my lyncher.

Why? Is it an overall feeling you have from her focusing on you? Or does a particular post or posts maker her sound like a lyncher?

Anyway, at this early stage in the game, what's wrong with a general, somewhat vauge, "I think person X is acting oddly" gut based comment about a player? If I had some specific scumtells Monkey had made that I wanted to point out, I would have.

We had someone claim because they thought they were at L-1 and could have been hammered. How does that fit into the early stage of the game?

Let's see how you were involved in that group discussion:

unvote

Vote:Monkeyman

Really, really odd play coming from him.

We will want to test Chaco's claim. I suggest that we wait until we've decided to lynch someone today and then, instead of hammering that person, we have Chaco do it. Otherwise, him using his claimed ability costs us all the information from a normal bandwagon, which seems like a bad thing.

Vague suspicion and setup talk. Did you really not have a specific scumtell on Monkey to point out from that event?

[Jahudo]

@lurker voters:
What is the endgame of voting a lurker like xofelf, who I believe is just having V/LA issues? Do you lynch them if they don't show up after a certain period of time? Say deadline is today and nothing is changed. Would you rather lynch xofelf, who has little-to-no connections, or someone like Jahudo who could have connections with everybody? Me, I'd vote Jahudo. But that's just me.

What connections

do

you have, anyway?

My votes and the people that have voted me. And if you want to include the lurkers I don't want to prod, although I could find suspicions once they become active. So what would you do at deadline, anyway? Of the people that haven't done anything, are they worth keeping around? Not that this is anything more than a hypothetical situation though.

[Jahudo]

@xof: Can you post some game-related opinions? Even if its only about 1 person or 1 event while you rest up.

@fl 448: I agree

Then we have the enormous slip about Kamina. He doubts Kamina is town. Why would he doubt about this if he had a townie role? This makes no sense! I know we should throw logic away, but when scum is so blatantly obvious we can't just ignore it.

I need to go back to this because I still don't see the slip here. I thought Monkey was saying that only scum know for sure if team gurren characters can be fakeclaims, so you can't confirm someone based on character. Does Monkey actually say he thinks Kamina is more likely scum than town?

[Jahudo]

xofelf, there was a reason he claimed which you can find by reading other player's posts around that time.

I guess I should have seen that coming by asking for a read on 1 player.

-----------------------------------------

S_B for once, stop kicking reason to the curb! Having a protagonist character role does not make you a townie!

Bleach Mafia: Soul Society
Inoue Orihime, an obvious good guy (girl), is in that game’s mafia.

Twilight Mafia
The mafia is the same as the bad guys in the first book, but they all got different fakeclaims of good guys in the book.

Futurama Mafia
The mafia consists of Fry and Leela, who are the main protagonists in the series.

Batman Mafia
Robin, normally a hero, is part of the mafia with some villains while the riddler and two-face, typically villains, are part of the town along with batman.

OOTS Mafia
Scum are given fakeclaims with both obvtown and not so obvtown characters. Townies are given character roles with obvtown and not so obvtown characters.

[Jahudo]

I was going to post random Gurren Lagann cosplay pictures, but we need to get back on-topic.

unvote;
Vote: Cobalt

1) Why vote someone who can't be lynched? You say he isn't posting but,
2) You aren't posting either. So get to posting. And answer my question.

I have also lost patience on the anti-content people, but I think they should replace out or commit to the game. Modkills and policy flaker lynches are a waste of our day.

So as of right now, I don't want to use (or can't use) today's lynch on the following people: Seraphim, Jebus, Vi, xofelf, Chaco, Jahudo, Snow_Bunny.

That leaves Yos, Monkey, and Cobalt. Not necessarily in that order.

[Jahudo]

You are thinking of Chaco, not Cobalt. Chaco should still be the one to hammer from L-2, but Cobalt is the one that mistook L-2 for L-1, fluff posts, and is now active lurking.

Meh, you're free to keep thinking I'd defend a scumbuddy but that doesn't sound like fun.
Its WIFOM coming from me, so take this with a grain of salt, but I love to bus, bus, and distance.
You remember the distancing right? Xofelf is a liabillity I would have ditched on page 1.

No, I'm discouraging a lurker lynch because we are essentially on Day 2 and you don't get good bandwagon analysis from a policy lynch. How is this point not valid?

[Jahudo]

I see where you're coming from but in xofelf's case I believe this is how she has played in every game of mafia. I don't know if there's a way to distinguish anti-town town behavior from anti-town scum behavior.

One solution I'm hoping for is a role to take care of the situation, like a cop or vig, but if I feel there is no better lynch at deadline I will join her wagon. I don't have a reason to believe she is town, but I have reasons to place other people ahead of her in my scumlist.

Your attacks, your whole behavior today, really seems off to me, Jahudo.

What about my attacks?

[Jahudo]

Xof's lack of content is not a scumtell in my opinion. I see it as a playstyle tell. Really I can't find a single scum or town tell on the girl. Lynching her before I have a reason to think she is scum (besides random odds) make it a bad lynch for me right now.

Vi, didn't you say yourself that we're getting what we should expect from xof? I know we shouldn't excuse her for that, but how sure are you that this is a good lynch for finding scum?

[Jahudo]

Jebus' lurking is uncharacteristic of my experiences with him where he was town (Mafia 86, Martyr Mafia). And he's posting in other games while ignoring this one. @Jebus: What are you doing?

I'd support a Monkey, Cobalt or Jebus lynch.

[Jahudo]

Jebus was fairly active day 1 in Kirby Mafia, had some bursts of activity in Mafia 86 and was a complete spammer in Martyr Mafia. Martyr was a more recent game whereas the other two happened when he was still new, which is why I still think he's playing uncharacteristically.

I'm not taking into effect content vs non-content posts. Just activity.

Kirby Mafia
25 posts over 39 game days = .64 posts per day
Night 1 = Oct. 11, 12, 13

Mafia 86
48 posts over 102 game days = .47 posts per day
Night 1 = Oct. 7, 8, 9
Night 2 = Oct. 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
Night 3 = Dec. 8, 9, 10, 11
Night 4 = Jan. 18

Martyr Mafia
103 posts over 75 game days = 1.37 posts per day
Night 1 = Feb. 22, 23, 24
Night 2 = Mar 27, 28, 29, 30

Gurren Lagann
8 posts over 19 game days = .42 posts per day

[Jahudo]

I'd rather get the quite enthusiastic replacements into the game immediately for a fresh perspective and to see if we can get an actually read on the people who have posted no content.

You have four days to deadline. How about this. I will give you all a 24 hour extension. I want you all to decide and vote on whether you want Jebus replaced or not in that time.

(Basicalle, starting now, deadline is pushed back 24 hours. However, at 11 PM EST tomorrow, I want a decision on Jebus)

Is this fair?

[Jahudo]

I've taken a step back and realized that my xofelf read hinges on the belief that this is her playstyle regardless of alignment, which I haven't researched more than a brief look. I'll give a complete look at her past games and if I'm wrong I will agree that she could be scum, the AtE could be a legit scumtell, and she should be lynched.

Jebus should be replaced immediately.

[Jahudo]

He seemed enthusiastic about the theme in his first post, so I don't think its lack of interest. And he is playing in other games, so unless he gives a defense, I don't think its lack of time.

I am suspicious of him because he is a usually a serious mafia player and active, but I am more suspicious of more active people like Cobalt. I wouldn't mind giving the Jebus player slot another game day to see what a replacement does with it.

[Jahudo]

I asked myself, who the hell do you think xofelf is? Here's what I found out:

Mafia 99

– Killers Mafia
Vanilla Townie / 3 posts / no content
Post 1) Replaces in and says she’ll read.
Post 2) Still reading / haven’t started to read. 18 days since last post.
Post 3) Life issues. Haven’t started to read. Small AtE. 8 days since last post.

Mini 844

– P-p-plain!
Serial Killer / 18 posts / some content
Post 4) Busy, still catching up
Post 5) Personal reasons for not being caught up
Post 6) Still reading.
Post 7) Some opinionated stance. Limited time to post.
Post 8) Still limited time to post. Opinions on everybody, but not much reasoning.
Post 12) Reasoned suspicion.
Post 16) Setup speculation. Soft claims vig.
Post 17) Claims vig. More setup speculation.

Mini 812

– Twilight Mafia
Townie / 10 posts / no content
Post 1) Confirm, zwet hate.
Post 2) Random vote zwet.
Post 3) Explains zwet vote.
Post 4) Has to catch up with reading.
Post 5) Still reading.
Post 6) 8 days later, gives personal reasons for inactivity. No content.
Post 7) Two more days and still reading. 1 unexplained suspicion.
Post 8) 3 days later. Didn’t catch up. Requests replacement.
Post 9) Defends having to replace out.
Post 10) Another request replacement post.

Mini 797

– Poof! Mafia
Townie / 3 Posts / no content
Post 1) Replaces in and says she’ll read.
Post 2) Still reading 6 days later. No content.
Post 3) 5 days later, defends falling behind with personal issue. No content.

Mini 788

– Fantasy Mafia
Mafia / 5 posts / some content
Post 1) Random joke vote.
Post 2) EBWOP Random vote.
Post 3) Question on page 2.
Post 4) 6 days later gives personal reasons for being V/LA.
Post 5) Requests replacement a week later.

Mafia 91

– Hell Aboard The Purple Flower
Vanilla Town / 2 posts / no content
Post 1) Random joke vote.
Post 2) Three days later needs to catch-up. No content.

Newbie 771 – Threat in Turino
Townie / 3 Posts / minimal content
Post 1) Replacing in, needs to read.
Post 2) Unfounded slight suspicions. Uses personal reasons to hold off from giving read.
Post 3) Requests replacement 11 days later for lack of interest.

Mini 747

– Mini 747
Vanilla Town / 19 posts / very minimal content
Post 2) Random vote for avatar.
Post 4) Talking about general discussion forum.
Post 7) No content
Post 8) Questions someone’s random vote for not having reason.
Post 10) No content.
Post 13) Votes someone she thinks is vanilla town.
Post 16) Admits to being useless in previous games and uses it as a defense to save from lynch.
Post 19) Major appeal to emotion.

Martyr Mafia

– Martyr Mafia
Cult recruit / 21 posts / very minimal content.
Post 1) Replacing in.
Post 2) Still reading.
Post 3) Finished reading but only talks about one minor point.
Post 4) No content.
Post 5) No content.
Post 7) zwet hate.
Post 9) Some opinionated stance.
Post 11) No content.
Post 12) No content.
Post 13) No content.
Post 14) Bandwagon hop.
Post 15) Says she doesn’t want to hop but its deadline.
Post 18) No content.
Post 19) No content.
Post 20) No content.
Post 21) Requests replacement.

Open 106

– Impotence Mafia
Mafia / 36 posts / active and some content
Post 1) Replaces in, gets to reading.
Post 3) A lot of questions and content.
Post 5) 6 days from last post. Personal reasons.
Post 6) Reading to catch up. (Christmas holidays)
Post 7) Announcing V/LA (chrismas holidays)
Post 10) Questions and gives opinions on player.
Post 11) More questions.
Post 12/13/14 – more game related questions and some analysis.
Post 17) more scumhunting
Post 24) content, opinion on a player
Post 28) Prods someone who is lurking and at L-1.
Post 30) weak reads, wishy-washy
Post 32) game related stance
Post 33) personal reason for not having much internet access.
Post 35) reasoned vote.

Mini 586

– Blood Red Mafia
Townie / 6 posts / some content
Post 1) Replacing in, reading game.
Post 2) A few content observations.
Post 3) Responds to questions from previous post.
Post 4) V/LA 5 days later. Unexplained vote.
Post 5) Feels wishy-washy or confused.
Post 6) 7 days later explains personal issues, no content in post.

Analysis: This is typical townie play for xofelf to say she's going to catch up and post some content, but doesn't. She is far more active as mafia and 3rd party, and plays with a purpose. She also is replaced out alot. Gives personal reasons alot, which were real when she was town before, and looks real now.

Conclusions: Replace xofelf. Don't lynch her.

[Jahudo]

Cobalt is my top suspect. Here’s why:

About 12 of his 80-some posts are pure fluff – (0, 1, 13, 39, 43, 47, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 72.) No content in these posts. He starts spamming around page 12 and helping to get the group off-topic. That is anti-town in any case and more so in a game that is trying to get lurkers to contribute who may see the game’s length getting away from them.

About 17 posts where he initiates or furthers setup speculation. – (Posts 9, 11, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 38, 50, 51, 53, 73, 74, 79) Doing this occasionally is not scummy, but when used as a crutch to stay active and even scumhunt is a strategy I can see scum doing. I am aware that I have initiated / furthered some setup speculation too.

About 15 of his 80-some posts are lurker prods. – (Posts 10, 21, 52, 55, 56, 57, 59, 60, 61, 67, 69, 70, 71, 78, 81.) This does not make him scummy, but a lot of his focus is on the lurkers and he hasn’t dedicated as much to the active people. If the lurkers are town, I could see this strategy from scum.

Here’s the extent of his player "reads" on the active and living players:

Yosarian2

:

I don't see a case on yos that is superior to a snow/xofelf wagon.

No explanation.

Snow, why did you comment on Vi but not Yos?
Incidentally, I'm pretty sure one of them is scum but I don't know which yet.

No explanation here either.

Vi

:

Snow, why did you comment on Vi but not Yos?
Incidentally, I'm pretty sure one of them is scum but I don't know which yet.

Only mention of Vi in regards to a possible alignment. No explanation.

Snow_Bunny

: Post 55 he says he wants to vote for her but doesn’t give a reason. Post 56 he does vote for her, presumably just another lurker prod. Post 69 he wants to continue with a lurker wagon. He does say whether she looks town or scum, or should be lynched for what she’s done so far.

MonkeyMan

: Nothing about his alignment. He does interact directly with him over the Chaco vote, but I do not see any suspicion. Just questions.

Chaco

:

Chaco, was that you? I thought yours would end the day?
I guess I read him wrong, but I didn't want him lynched yet. He didn't even claim.

He previously hadn’t said anything about Chaco being scum or town, but the way he says not to lynch Chaco yet seems to indicate he’s thinking about the case as a possibility. He doesn’t explain why or why not though.

Jahudo

: Nothing in regards to a possible alignment.

That’s not much on the active people. Mostly he’s pressured Socio and the lurkers. It looks like he’s almost avoiding getting reads on the actives.

And finally, this quote:

Monkeyman, are you aware that's L-1 on Chaco?

He states that Chaco is at L-1 when he’s really at L-2. Even though Monkey had the same thought, and said he didn’t realize it, I believe only Monkey would really not notice the vote count at that point.

Consider the following:

1) Cobalt takes 3 posts (174, 175, 176) to question why Chaco has 4 votes on him from 3 people (Yos, Socio and Vi). We establish there is likely a double or secret voter, so Cobalt knows by post 178 that Chaco is at L-2.

2) In post 186 Cobalt acknowledges that Socio keeps changing his vote with every post. Just before that in 185 he asks why Socio changed his vote to Cobalt. At this point he has to know that Socio is not voting for Chaco if he is voting for Cobalt. So logically Chaco is L-3.

3) Post 189 MonkeyMan votes. Post 192 Cobalt claims that Chaco is at L-1. He of all people should not have made this mistake, because he was in the moment on each step of this wagon. Scum would benefit from this two ways: hoping to get the traditional L-1 claim from town, and putting suspicion on Monkey for being the force that gets the premature claim.

[Jahudo]

Incidentally,

If the lurkers are town

Do you think this is the case?

Just between xofelf and Jebus, or are we including Seraphim and Cobalt? I could play the odds game and say you probably have one town between the two of xof and jeb, but nothing from their posts has indicated either alignment. Xofelf's excuse looks external, not game related. I don't know what Jebus' problem was, but I could guess reasons that were external that caused him to neglect one game but not others.

Anyway I'm glad to see slicey here. Now I know why I made him that avatar
catch up soon guy!

[Jahudo]

What, process by townie elimination? What was that xofelf thing again?

Vote: Extension

[Jahudo]

Gotcha. If I had to find 1 scum and had two lynches available I would go {Cobalt, MonkeyMan} or {Cobalt, Yosarian2} before I went {Slicey, xofelf's replacement} for the best chance to find 1 or even 2 scum.

I would take {Slicey, xofelf's replacement} before a few other pairs of people I had town feelings on {Seraphim, Chaco, Vi} and maybe even S_B; her single-mindedness looks both anti-town and not a scum strategy.

[Jahudo]

Where did I say Jebus/Slicey was town? He's neutral like xofelf.

[Jahudo]

@Yos: Your defense in 427 supported my original hypothesis, so I still like my case.

@Slicey: Read the mod's red text in post 456. FL practically says the flavor in the first paragraph of the opening post is true. Anti-Spirals can be town. Scum is somebody new. Does that change your theory that a force lyncher is also a cult recruiter?

[Jahudo]

I have information that a cult is in this game.

How do you know this?

I said all along that I was voting Monkeyman based on some oddities in his play, some things that seemed strange to me; it was never a strong vote, but at the time it was the best I had to go on. When you asked me about it, I explained what they were in some detail.

Okay, maybe this explains my concern. At first I had no way of knowing how strong your confidence was in the vote. You kept saying his play was "Odd" in the original vote post and again in 427 to the point that I thought you were putting together a strong case but was being purposely vague about it.

I still have a bad feeling about you, but I'll downgrade it to odd play

[Jahudo]

@Chaco: Who do you think is scum and why?

[Jahudo]

Looking back, I find your case on him a bit weaker, Jah. I'd still like chamber to respond to it, and post in general.

I'm interested to know what you find weak about it.

Chamber can't defend against the case. I want to see his own opinions before I'd consider unvoting though.

[Jahudo]

Slicey: No need to reveal any more about your role yet, but just be aware that not every recruiting / following group is a cult. If the word "cult" isn't specifically used, we could be talking about a mafia or town group, rather than 3rd party.

[Jahudo]

@Yos: Is this the post you say Ray is attacking SB?

Hmm... I'll believe the cult thing now. I've never played a game with a cult before, though. However, though one would think the anti-spiral claim can be from a cult leader, I don't think it is. A fakeclaim would have been better (wifom included). In fact, I believe its even more plausible that Slicey IS the cult recruiter. But that's not the case either. (I even liked the theory that Kamina could be a recruiter)

Feeling 100% confident that slicey is not the recruiter is noted.

@Ray: How do you interpret that Snow is 100% confident about who is or is not the recruiter from that quote?

[Jahudo]

Hey Slicey, vote Jahudo with me. Chaco's day is coming.

You'd think I'd have a big bullseye painted on my forehead.

why are we not hunting the freaking Mafia when they are right in front of us?

I think we should be more focused on finding scum.

Vi and Slicey, I'm waiting for you to put forth a more tangible case. So stop dancing around the issue and challenge me!

Jahudo still gives me terrible vibes. Play is very conservative yet very Town-looking, something that I know Agent J is good at but also something that stands out terribly against the other players.

I don't understand where I'm conservative. That "standing out" you're talking about is called LEADERSHIP.

11) Jahudo - Played with once over a year ago. Play was similar to this game; however here it rings as extremely shallow - similar to a common accusation against me, "asking questions to divert attention/look Town". Except I'm always Town, so.

I don't understand how I'm shallow. Am I asking too many questions? Or are the questions unjustified?

This is just one example of why I'm so uneasy on Jahudo. To me at least, he just seems to be going through the motions. He makes an accusation but then backs off pretty quickly. I have a day off tomorrow, so I should have time to look at him more closely to seem if my suspicions are valid enough to make a case on him. But to me, he just seems to not really be scumhunting and just throwing out suspicions but not backing up on it.

I don't know what you mean by motions. It sounds like an empty word. I did not back off that accusation quickly, but go ahead and explain how I did. How am I not backing up my suspicions and scumhunting? Am I the best example of these suspicions you have?

[Jahudo]

Define fluff. Define empty.

I never defended them. I gave my opinion that we had no way of gleaming anything about their alignment. There's a difference.

[Jahudo]

Then maybe Snow_Bunny can clarify.

In fact, I believe its even more plausible that Slicey IS the cult recruiter. But that's not the case either.

Why do you believe Slicey could be cult in the first sentence but say its not the case in the second sentence?

[Jahudo]

Chaco was that you ending the day?

I have a gut feeling this setup is too kill happy for a 3-man scum team but if there is a 3-man mafia we're in MYLO.

Still feeling this:

Vote: chamber

[Jahudo]

I doubt we have a 3-man mafia but I like to play on the safe side when it comes to massclaiming. And I like the information we get from it. So I'm okay if we do it.

Jahudo knows Chaco killed a townie but he's okay with it? I don't get it...

I didn't know it was Chaco, hence the question.

@Chaco: When did you submit the kill, because you posted 2 minutes before the mod locked the thread. Why didn't you tell anyone you were going to hammer, since you were posting at the end of the day?

Jahudo, when did you ever say you thought chamber was scum? And why would you vote right away if it's MYLO?

Back when he was Cobalt. chamber hasn't done anything to sway me either way. I voted because I think he's scum.

If we do have a Cult Recruiter, it's almost certainly Chaco, because the only two other roles that had any chance of being Recruiter were Simon and Kamina, with a very small chance of it being Kittan, who are now all dead.

Did Chaco give a character claim? Why are you comparing characters with a role? I think scum could have a fake claim, so I don't understand this.

[Jahudo]

He claimed Anti-Spiral. He might not have a fake claim and tried to paint Anti-Spiral as town with his ability. And where did you say you thought cobalt was scummy, because I don't remember seeing it. What exactly did you find scummy about him.

I agree with mass claiming. Jahudo should definitely go first.

Seriously? If that's true, then you have not been reading my posts. That is really bad behavior for someone who thinks I'm scum. And you still haven't answered my post 680. So I really don't know why you think I'm scum.

But read these posts for my Cobalt suspicions:
Post 272
Post 466
Post 521

Anyone not want to massclaim today? I'm okay with going first, but I won't go if someone has a good reason not to.

[Jahudo]

jahudo chaco and MM are the scum guys

What, like together?

[Jahudo]

K, most people support massclaim and everybody's had the chance to post at the start of the day.

I claim Rossieu, Masonizer.

A masonizer is basically a mason recruiter who targets someone each night and if its successful, I'd be able to talk with them at night. I won't know their alignment and they won't know mine.

That is why I asked this to Slicey yesterday:

Slicey: No need to reveal any more about your role yet, but just be aware that not every recruiting / following group is a cult. If the word "cult" isn't specifically used, we could be talking about a mafia or town group, rather than 3rd party.

See my role PM uses the words "recruiter" to get "followers", but my win condition is with the town. So I started to wonder if I was the cult role because I have a cult-like power. But since his role PM said cult, that indicates alignment. So I am not the cult recruiter. My role could have been placed in as a red herring to the real cult though, so I can still buy the idea of a cult.

Last night I targeted Vi to masonize because she had been on the fence over my alignment and she seemed town. I decided this early on and breadcrumbed directly to her, to see if she would pick up on it:

@lurker voters:
What is the endgame of voting a lurker like xofelf, who I believe is just having V/LA issues? Do you lynch them if they don't show up after a certain period of time? Say deadline is today and nothing is changed. Would you rather lynch xofelf, who has little-to-no connections, or

someone like Jahudo who could have connections with everybody

? Me, I'd vote Jahudo. But that's just me.

What connections

do

you have, anyway?

M

y votes and the people that have voted me.

A

nd if you want to include the lurkers I don't want to prod, although I could find suspicions once they become active.

S

o what would you do at deadline, anyway?

O

f the people that haven't done anything, are they worth keeping around?

N

ot that this is anything more than a hypothetical situation though.

Breadcrumbs are in bold. The first means I could get mason connections with everybody and the second spells out MASON with the first letter of each sentence. And Vi said my answer here was terribly vague. Not so vague now Vi!

I wonder if S_B saw me target Vi and thinks I killed her? So maybe she saw a second person target Vi? I guess we let that wait until it comes to her. But I know my claim looks obvcult and won't be distinguishable so all I can do now is try to guess who might really be cult and who might really have killed Vi.

Now I have to ask, WHO THE HELL DO YOU THINK YOU ARE, COBALT???
(Cobalt, you claim next)

[Jahudo]

In hindsight I should have picked someone I did not think was a possibly NK target.

Also S_B, that's not how popcorn massclaiming works

[Jahudo]

I have hot blood but I want to organize our brigade with some structure, so I want followers.

[Jahudo]

unvote

...because I don't know what to think at the moment.

Monkey, what is your role PM flavor? Why did you investigate me last night? Why aren't you voting me if you got a guilty?

@Cobalt: Snow_Bunny and you could both be telling the truth if Yos was the killer.

[Jahudo]

Opps, yeah. Either S_B or Cobalt is lying. Yos does not have to be killer in any case.

one more thing:

Jahudo and Chaco seem like the best best right now, Jahudo for scum and Chaco if he is indeed cult.

Monkey, this clearly looks like you're calling Chaco cult but you just call me scum like its something different than cult. Why would you say that if you had a guilty on me as cult?

[Jahudo]

There aren't many candidates for who could have vanilla-ized S_B:

Cobalt, Yos and I were seen on Vi by S_B, so how could we also target S_B?
Monkey was on me, if he's telling the truth.
Chaco already used a killing role power, so I doubt he also has a vanilla-izing power.
Which leaves Slicey.

Right now S_B's claim looks shaky.

As for going after caught mafia or caught cult, I'd say go mafia. They have incentive to kill the cult leader themselves. They might hope that recruits also die if they're leader is gone, so it could be a 2 for 1. If you kill the cult leader and his recruit suicides, that helps the mafia win if they need something like 50% representation.

[Jahudo]

Anyway, I'll claim. Lord Genome, Strong Minded Townie. I am immune to Cult Recruits. My flavor and my knowledge of the movie said that I have a strong amount of spiral energy (because I'm a Spiral Warrior), which is why I thought you were the Cult Recruiter, Chaco.

My masonizer role is testable because of Slicey's role. I can target him tonight and if I'm successful that means I am a mason recruiter and not a cult recruiter.

[Jahudo]

We still don't know who killed SocioPath, right? I doubt a 3-man scum team could have a day kill AND a night kill. So are we looking for two killing factions?

And I don't see how any of the scum roles (day kill, night kill, cult) we're looking for are also a vanilla-izer.

[Jahudo]

Actually I claimed that I had targeted Vi before S_B claimed anything.

[Jahudo]

Monkey, I already said I can confirm my towniness. What don't you believe about it?

[Jahudo]

But I targeted Vi last night, which means even if I was a cult recruiter I don't have any recruits. What are cult win conditions typically? Majority or everyone? I wouldn't be there tomorrow.

[Jahudo]

You got me Monkey. Well played. I wanted to hold out until tomorrow to get another recruit, but its obvious I'll be killed by scum if people don't go for my lynch. There no way of trusting what my win condition is, is there?

Yes I am the cult recruiter and no I did not target Vi last night. I statistically can't win unless I pull out the hail mary. So here's the thing. We have a lone mafia and a lone SK. One is the day killer, the other is night killer. I'm pretty confident I know who is who. The night killer can't touch me because of the watcher/tracker combo.

Day killer, I propose we get rid of night killer and I'll recruit you tonight. You could kill me, but next to me you have the least chance of winning anyway.

Townies, I bet you want to lynch me now
You can do that, but realize that my recruit goes back into the mafia pile and you'll be in MYLO tomorrow. And are you really confident you can tell mafia from SK right now?
So let me live and I'll recruit as many of you as I can. we'll no lynch for as long as it takes and everybody goes home happy!

I think I covered all my bases.

[Jahudo]

Monkey, who do you think the killers are?

Where's Yos and Chaco?

[Jahudo]

I won't tell. And depending on what Yos and Chaco say will help me decide if I reveal the name of our day killer(s). I'm leaning on telling.

[Jahudo]

I don't know scum for a fact, but from my position I feel confident about a few lies. Day killer and night killer seem to be two different factions: SK and Mafia.

I'm really confident Vi was the night kill instead of Slicey, so Cobalt is the night killer. But I think he is working alone based on who I also think is scum, and more likely scum as a mafia team.

I think it would be best to go after the mafia over Cobalt, but he is scum in the bag and I suppose I could target mafia tonight.

[Jahudo]

Dang, the one time I forget to preview :/

[Jahudo]

ahhh, sorry for trying to sell you out. I do think we should lynch mafia today because if the town lynches Cobalt today and me tomorrow, then mafia automatically wins.

[Jahudo]

I probably made a mistake by claiming cult. Who woulda thought.

I think Yos and Monkey is the mafia team. Yos was the day killer, Monkey was the vanilla-izer. I know Monkey lied about his role PM for reasons I can't discuss. Just promise me you night kill or lynch Monkey after I'm gone.

Vote: Jahudo

[Jahudo]

I targeted Vi last night. I lied about have a follower.

[Jahudo]

I'm at L-1. Can I get a hammah?

Or would you rather day kill me, Monkeydude?

[Jahudo]

I was a townie masonizer. Sorry guys, but this was all a gambit. Now kill a mafia before the SK.

[Jahudo]

To elaborate, I don't think there is a cult but I could be wrong.

I was hoping for Cobalt to either claim his role in order to join my "cult", but I guess its okay if he wanted to claim and decided I was more expendable. I still say he's SK.

Monkey will be the obvious first lynch because we know he lied about his role. You all will know that soon enough, but I think he was hoping I actually was cult or I would be tomorrow's mislynch. That's what I was afraid of. Scum kill Slicey so I can't confirm my role. I get mislynched tomorrow after SK dies today, and mafia would have won.

[Jahudo]

No I targeted Vi, but didn't get the unsuccessful until the end of night. I think the mod was waiting for all role actions to come in, and she has kill as the priority action.

[Jahudo]

I'll go ahead and give a case for Monkey-Yosarian scumbuddies while I still have life.

Monkey was the second-to-last to claim so his fakeclaim would have been easiest to pull off. Only Yosarian claimed after him. Since my Mason Recruiter looked closest to a cult fakeclaim, he seized his chance and said he had a guilty on me. All he needed was one mislynch because at that point there was a liar between Cobalt and S_B.

I think he came up with the fakeclaim on the spot because in post 736 he says I look scum and Chaco looks cult. The scum implies not-cult, since he used cult specifically on Chaco. I don't buy his reason of hiding anything there since we were talking of massclaiming by that point.

I'm surprised he managed to vote me in his first post today, solidifying a claim I thought he had made up on the spot. But I can see that his reason for voting me in that instance was based on something I said, so he could easily backed off if I wasn't a good mislynch choice.

In post 776 he still doesn't know if I am cult or not. If I'm not cult, he'll be lynched over the mislynch. So he asks if we should go for the mafia, which for him is lynch Cobalt the SK. That allows me to be mislynched tomorrow without the mafia losing a single member.

By this point Yosarian has taken S_B's side and is trying to lynch Cobalt. He provides the voice that overpowers Monkey until tomorrow. My theory was virtually confirmed when he reacted to my cult claim. Yos put all his chips in by calling Monkey "confirmed town", instead of just "confirmed power role". Then he goes back to the myth that Cobalt is mafia and has partners.

So their plan was to lynch SK today, kill Slicey, and lynch me tomorrow.

[Jahudo]

Wait, what? Please don't say there was a 3-man mafia :/

[Jahudo]

Hey Monkey/Yos, don't agree to that arrangement. Cobalt is probably 1-shot bulletproof. Just play it straight and hope for a cult to get you.

also, he claimed SK a while ago...

[Jahudo]

Then how do you explain getting a guilty on me?

[Jahudo]

I decided to kick reason to the curb. It was so much fun to fake claim scum and push my own glorious lynch!!!

But just because I'm insane doesn't discount my theory any.

[Jahudo]

Well since Slicey couldn't have confirmed me, I would have been lynched tomorrow anyway. All I could do was mason one person but everyone would have thought it was a recruit. I don't see how we could have unless mafia couldn't kill anymore.

Still, I am a dick for ruining this game forever. I apologize to the town and am going on a self-imposed ban for my crap play. I don't want to ruin future games for having a meta of insanity.

[Jahudo]

*I told you we should have lynched Jebus instead of getting a replacement <.<

But lynching xofelf would have been bad. So 50/50. Was xofelf really vanilla?

How did I become vanilla? So basically my real claim was a lie and would have gotten me lynched regardless of what scum did. Meh, this was still a really fun game.

[Jahudo]

Don't quit playing, just learn from it. Like I always say, the only way to get good at chess is to lose a lot.

Maybe I'll just go to an alt for a while and try a different tone. Being the crazy photoshop joker is making me burn out...