Newbie 113 - Game Over

[Mr. Flay]

Just some more quotes that REALLY don't sit well with me:

All from the SAME FLAY post:

Well, sure man, it's a million lines long, and my only real post of the weekend... of course it's from the same post.

I'll die tonight for sure, obviously, so that won't tell us anything.

What if you were scum?

What are you smoking? If I live until tomorrow, I'm dead via lynch. At this point I can ONLY think that you're trying to set me up by leaving me alive tomorrow, but the point remains I'll have another investigation... which I suppose you'll try to say is bogus as well, after we lynch correctly today (or else this is all moot).

That probably doesn't parse very well. Look, Stam had my highest rating for being scum after EYNH got knocked out, but you're climbing right the hell up there. You've been skittish and weird all game, and you run between calling me an "amazing player" and saying I can't be trusted. I think you're a good player, but (from Greek mafia on GL), you can make some bad logic posts as scum, and I think you're making a bad leap of intuition here. What would benefit me by trying to clear EYNH today? Again, I could have fingered you or Stam and gotten a much easier lynch, if that was my goal. Tamuz as well, though to a lesser extent...

Was at 3 votes on 5/22, from Mr. Flay, Stam, and big_kahunia. Two of those are proven pro-town now

Who are the two PROVEN PROTOWN?

Grrr. big_kahunia's proven by death, and in MY analysis, based on what *I* know about myself, I'm proven innocent. Do you often make your game analysis including the possibility that you might be scum, when you're not? Look back to the first line of that post you're quoting, where I say that I only KNOW four things; the innocent players that are in my notes. I didn't say the TOWN knew it, though I'll be surprised if they go for this gambit.

Flay, you're using bad logic here... you're making assumptions that we, as townies, CANNOT make.

I'm not a townie. That's why I'm posting with the information I have. If someone can contradict me as being the cop, then they come out now, and you all have a 50/50 chance to kill me or the counter-claimer. I die, game's over (yes, I know this; no, you don't know this to be a fact, unless you're scum). The counter-claimer's lynched, we end up with a proven cop (me), a proven townie (EYNH), and another investigation tonight that I don't expect to live to make public.

But if NO ONE contradicts me, then what choice do we have? One player's "reasonable doubt" (and one unreasonable doubt...see below)? It's all the information I have to give you, and the only reason I held onto it was to let other people hang themselves by their suspicions/allegations before I came out with it. No one hung themselves at the time, but I'm fairly certain that we could lynch you and see a dead scum as a result. If we did, then we're in the same position...EYNH lives, I die tonight, and there are three left alive tomorrow. Whoever the pair is, they're doing a pretty good job of distancing themselves from each other, unless it's Lee and Stam.

I believe that Flay may be lying, especially after how scummy he looked coming out of the gate today. And if he is scum, Tamuz is almost 100% his partner.

So much for better logic from you today... lying about WHAT??? Being the cop, or your innocence? This post makes no sense...I've given you the only lifeline you've got, and you seem to want to hang us all with it. After admitting you joined a bandwagon on bad logic yesterday, you were number 1 with a bullet today... and I *still* found you innocent, according to Nanook. Did you send him a false role PM or something? I'm seriously lost by this entire post... yes, maybe there's some outside chance that Tamuz and I concocted a hairbrained scheme to clear YOU and try to get...well, Tamuz, or two others, lynched today. That's

brilliant

.

Aaargh. I'm tired tonight, Tamuz is making my math-related posts for me, and I'm going to sleep. Please, no one vote any suspicions until we get a little more time to discuss this. I think we're being blindsided by some seriously sweating scum...

[Stam]

LML, it's nice to finally see some content in your posts.
Yes, indeed there is still a possibility that Mr. Flay is lying, but I find the pair of you with Tamuz much more likely than any pair of Mr. Flay and someone. If Flay is a scum, I see no reason why he went on such an adventure. I know that you know Mr. Flay much better than myself but I really don't trust you enough to give a character testamony of Mr. Flay right now. If you can point out any game where he went on an adventure as bold as what you suggest he is doing here, please share it with us.

Tamuz - my 33% remark was just simple probability. If we assume the two scums are two of you LML and myself, and we lynch one of us at random, we have 66% of lynching a scum. Then tomorrow, assuming Mr. Flay dies and is found to be a cop then EYNH will be a confirmed townie having 50% of lynching right. In order for town to win we need to succeed in

both

lynches, and the probability for that is 33%. Of course, things here are more complicated. We have more information and we don't lynch at random, and on the other hand we have this theory of LML, but just theoretically, the number 33% is right. I hope I explained myself well.
I am not as optimistic as Mr. Flay about EYNH's pinlynch tomorrow. I think it will be at least as hard as today's lynch if not even harder.

Mr. Flay, with the information that was in my hands at that time there was no way I could see Tamuz's post as a no-cop claim. It could very easily mean he is a cop finding EYNH guility. In that case, the phrase "no one is discounted" just means that anyone could be EYNH's partner.

[EnterYourNameHere]

So much for better logic from you today... lying about WHAT??? Being the cop, or your innocence? This post makes no sense...I've given you the only lifeline you've got, and you seem to want to hang us all with it. After admitting you joined a bandwagon on bad logic yesterday, you were number 1 with a bullet today... and I *still* found you innocent, according to Nanook. Did you send him a false role PM or something? I'm seriously lost by this entire post... yes, maybe there's some outside chance that Tamuz and I concocted a hairbrained scheme to clear YOU and try to get...well, Tamuz, or two others, lynched today. That's

brilliant

.

I was about to go to sleep, but I'll address this before I do. I had suspicions about you possibly faking cop--not lying about me being innocent, which indeed I am--and was considering a scenario in which you and Tamuz were scum partners. However, I do doubt it (I believe I even said so in the post; if I didn't, I meant to), and, especially after seeing the extreme lengths you've gone on today, I completely discount the possibility. I don't think you'd put this much effort into it as a scum faking cop.

And again, like I said, I'm having a hard time linking two of the remaining three together, which is what led me to even consider the possibility of you faking cop in the first place in the first place. Though Stam/Tamuz is the most striking pair to me, I can't quite put my finger on why...perhaps I just need sleep.

And Stam is right about the numbers: assuming we just voted randomly, we'd have a 33% chance of winning (as well as a 33% chance of losing today and a 33% chance of losing tomorrow). This obviously is not the ideal situation, so let's think some more about this. I'll most likely be left to make the final decision tomorrow, so let's decide out game plan today.

And now, off to sleep.

[Tamuz]

OK, you guys may attack me for this, but it makes absolutely no sense to kill Mr. Flay in terms of the next day's lynch.
If Flay is mafia and we let him live then he won't be killed at night and therefore he will be alive tommorow. If Flay is alive tomorrow we will know he is the mafia, boom simple lynch

If Mr. Flay is inncent then we will know 2/3 if not 3/3 of the living tommorow and, well easy lunch there tommor'

That being said there is at least one mafia in the following group:
Tamuz
EnterYourNameHere
LoudMouthLee
Stam

knowing what I know from from Maximus I am innocent so I am left with the folllowing list of suspects to fill one mafia space:
EnterYourNameHere
LoudMouthLee
Stam

You three will, of course have similar list sans your name with mine, just because even the guilty must saythey are inoccent. Of those three, well... I'm not too sure ignoring the cop claim and claim of innocence, You all seem guilty in your own scumtastic way. Hemm and Haww

[Mr. Flay]

At this stage, we're all sitting around the table staring each other down. I'm prepared to vote LML in order to prove myself innocent (since he's the only one really advocating this false-claim story, if he comes up scum that should be the end of it), or Tamuz for *continuing* to be 100% undecided about everything. Stam, I still think is suspicious for pulling the trigger on Kain, and if LML comes up scum, I think he's our next best bet... but those two are standing out more for me.

I'm sorry I don't have more. Everyone's playing their cards so close to their vest, and I really thought I'd have a scum-lock in EYNH...

[Mr. Flay]

Sorry for the double-post, but I feel like I should explain a few things that may have been posted pre-caffeine earlier:

1. I'm not excusing Stam from suspicions, but at this point I'm more worried about clearing my own name. If it comes to pass that the game is lost because I made a bad cop, that's inexcusable in my book. But LML's supposition that I'm playing a cop gambit is even more unlikely...

   If you can point out any game where he went on an adventure as bold as what you suggest he is doing here, please share it with us.

   I tried to counter-claim mathcam as the doctor on Day Two in Newbie #73, but that was desperation, not boldness. We had an outed/cleared Cop on Day One, and a living Doctor even on Day Two... the only way to nix the Cop's future was to lynch the Doctor during the day. If I was scum today, I was in *no* danger, hence no reason to claim something false.
2. Check my record, I've been scum MORE often than I've been town in the past, despite mathematical improbabilities. Now look at my play in those games; it's easier to run gambits and finger people for guilt when you know who is the town and who isn't. I'm actually a fairly mediocre players on the town's side, mainly because I haven't had much practice (killed Night One in Checkmate, Newbies 102
   and
   108 - and the
   first
   person to suggest that means I should always be lynched Day Two if I'm alive, gets my vote ). Contrast that with Newbie 68, where we won by catching the mafia in a double-claim. My first experience of being a townie!
3. I don't know why EYNH suspected me of lying, but can everyone agree that there were easier ways to do it if I'd just fingered EYNH, or Stam, or Lee? A non-guilty result on a townie in lynch-or-lose is about the worst result you can hope for, short of a result on a dead townie...
4. I don't know why Tamuz is latching onto me and we're agreeing on everything. Maybe he's scum with LML trying to set me up for a fall...maybe we just have similar thought patterns.

I'm itching to vote, but we've only been in daylight for less than a week, and everyone hasn't chimed in since EYNH rescinded his suspicions of me.

[Stam]

ok, Mr. Flay, I took your reading assignment.
I looked at your past games.
Newbie 73, indeed doesn't resemble this game in any way.
The closest I got was Mini 142, where Mr. Flay's partner, Internet Stranger, claimed cop in a LOL situation. It looks to me like this was an unnecessary risk, but I didn't read the thread enough to know for sure. It would be interesting to know if this was discussed over night or this was IS's solo initiative.
Anyway, no, I don't think this might suggest Mr. Flay would do a similar thing here. I know that some paople would be offended by such a suggstion. Unless I get some new evidence, it looks quite clear to me that Mr. Flay is the cop, and that means the scums are LML and Tamuz.
I noticed that both LML and Tamuz brought out the idea that if Mr. Flay doesn't die tonight, we should lynch him tomorrow. I guess they want to see if EYNH or myself agree with this aproach, which gives them a sure win. I do have an opinion of what to do if this happens, but I will not share it with you and I advise EYNH not to share his opinion either.
If you want to keep Mr. Flay alive tonight, you are very welcome to do so.

[Tamuz]

I noticed that both LML and Tamuz brought out the idea that if Mr. Flay doesn't die tonight, we should lynch him tomorrow. I guess they want to see if EYNH or myself agree with this aproach, which gives them a sure win.

You are twisting my words, I never said lynch him tomorrow. I was just saying that it is completely illogical to kill Mr. Flay today, regardless of his affiliation. My way to close down the suspect list, 1/3 is better than 1/4.

Flay, I'm not affiliating myself with you to get you killed, I don't want you killed right now, regardless of you being mafia or not. It would be bad for myself and the other two townies out there to have you die right now. Anyway, maybe you and I are thinking alike for the reason that our interests are the same (kill the mafia). This is reminding me of my first newbie (99) where mneme and halfpint were both obvious townies to each other because they acted so similarily.

You attack me for not settling on a person... Well, that is just what I do, I'm sorry... don't like my playing style (kill me).

However, I really have no other choice, I'm going to trust you on EYNH, because there isn't much else I can do other than taking a blind 33% guess. So I'm down to a 50-50 with LML and Stam, and I am ready and willing to vote LML as he has seemed guilty throughout the game. (especially those jitters in the beggining)

[LoudmouthLee]

(sigh) Lynch and lose.

Just a reminder.

[Mr. Flay]

Last words of a dying scum.

"

Dovie'andi se tovya sagain.

- It's time to roll the dice."

Vote: LoudmouthLee

[Stam]

Vote: LoudmouthLee

die scum!!

[LoudmouthLee]

JUMP! JUMP!

[LoudmouthLee]

FLAY UNVOTE!

[LoudmouthLee]

FLAY, GET HERE BEFORE TAMUZ DOES!

Stam jumped! Look at him! He jumped!

Vote: Stam

Don't be a fool, Flay!

[Mr. Flay]

This can wait, Lee.

Unvote: LML, Vote: Stam

[EnterYourNameHere]

Vote: Stam

Pretty obvious with the jump. I'm not so sure Lee's the partner, but that's for whoever's left tomorrow to decide (probably me).

[Mr. Flay]

Just a note, since I'm probably dead once night falls; while it's unlikely that Lee is Stam's partner, it's an outside possibility of a gambit to prove the innocence of one scum by voting for the other. Tamuz' continued silence

seems

to indicate otherwise, though it's only been 6 hours since Stam jumped...

Good luck, town.

[Stam]

BAHHHH!!!!!!

[Mr. Flay]

[Tamuz]

Yeah, I was at school... or else I would have voted for Lee (I actually planned on it when I got home) but it really is too late now
Tommorrow I expect my vote to be much simpler (assuming Stams "BAHHH" to be a confession), EYNH, you will have the hard vote between LML and myself... as we all expect Flay to die and EYNH to be cleared by Flay's role. If that doesn't happen, there will be no tommorow

[NanookTheWolf]

Stam was nothing more then a mere little mafia goon ..

Gute Nacht!

[NanookTheWolf]

Mr. Flay has been terminated

It's Day 3, Will there be a 4th for the town or the mafia?

[LoudmouthLee]

This (should) be a relatively simple day.

EYNH is cleared by Flay's death.

Vote: Tamuz

Logically speaking, we're lucky the game has gone on this far. If Tamuz got online before Mr. Flay unvoted, we wouldn't even be having a third day. Let's keep it on the right track by lynching our final scum.

I can go back through the thread if you need forther proof, EYNH. I'll be happy to facilitate you by answering and questions you may have.

I do implore you, EYNH, we have a very REAL chance of winning this game. I saw our chances of winning pass in front of my eyes when Stam hopped on.

I'm sure that Tamuz is going to try to concoct a case against me. Let Tamuz speak, but take everying he says with a grain of salt. We got mafia yesterday because Stam made a jump, and Tamuz wasn't around.

Let's win this game.

[Tamuz]

Was Flay the cop, that would be really good to know.

LML, I would love to see your proof... I bet it is just like the 'proof' you had in this post (185)

I will be responding to this in great length later tonight, Flay. I remember a post in particular that could prove someone scum, and posture us for at least a 66% chance tomorrow. But, duty calls. I'll bbl.

You never did show up that post... or really much other proof you had.
LML, this day is relatively simple for both of us. I know I'm innocent, EYNH is innocent per Mr. Flay, and you know your only shot to win is to get me killed. My vote is simple, your vote is simple--quite easily we vote for each other. EYNH has the hard part today, to look between us and try to figure out who is mafia.

Logically speaking If I had got online before Mr Flay unvoted you would be dead. Now since I'm not mafia, EYNH isn't mafia and Mr. Flay isn't mafia the game wouldn't be over. Your game would be over and Stam would be in your place.

Again, I implore you to go find your answers to EYNH's questions... although if EYNH went back through the thread, especially at Mr. Flay's comprehensive look at everyone (183) you and your flippant behaviour in day 1 would not aid your case.

We got a mafia yesterday because you voted Stam making you seem innocent, tis a shame I was at school, but it really doesn't matter, we would have had mafia regardless yesterday since the choice was between two mafias, LML and Stam.


Now, to repeat LML's words "Let LML speak, but take everying he says with a grain of salt"

Good luck EYNH, I have been in your position before and I know how hard it is. If you need to speak to me for help I'll be around, but just wait a bit since I still have school

--and of course

Vote:LML

[Tamuz]

One last point, to reitterate something Flay had said

Posted first when Day Two broke, which is sometimes a tell of someone with a night action

(183)

Note LML's post, 13 minutes after daybreak. It may or may not be of concern, but it is still something to consider