Newbie 113 - Game Over

[Tamuz]

Flay I don't think your that innocent, I just can't see you as guilty

And no Stam, I'm not a cop, I probably would have investigated Flay if I was the cop since I can't rea him unlike our pair of lurkers and yourself.

[NanookTheWolf]

Vote Count:

5 Alive, Takes 3 To Lynch!

[LoudmouthLee]

Flay I don't think your that innocent, I just can't see you as guilty

And no Stam, I'm not a cop, I probably would have investigated Flay if I was the cop since I can't rea him unlike our pair of lurkers and yourself.

Lurker? You have GOT to be kidding me.

[Tamuz]

This certainly isn't the first time I've alluded to you being a lurker, why the fuss about it now?

[LoudmouthLee]

You call me a lurker, Tamuz, when I have 5 posts less than you. That, including the fact that I didn't post during twilight (call it a bad experience with me being modkilled in a past game)

The last few days, as I said, my internet has died. I'm going to

FoS: Tamuz

for now. But, you had tripped my scumdar a while ago, and possibly even moreso now.

[Stam]

This certainly isn't the first time I've alluded to you being a lurker, why the fuss about it now?

No reason.
This is exactly my point. No reason.
Everything LML is doing seems to be completely random. The only way I could explain it is that he is playing WineInFrontOfMe realizeing he is very likely to be lynched today and attempting to make us more confused after his death. Our best responce to this is to just ignore it.

LML, if you want me to consider your innocence, start making posts with a bit more content. If you count the posts, maybe you have about the same number of posts as Tamuz, but when it comes to content - Tamuz beats you by far.

Anyway, since Tamuz is claiming no-cop, I will assume Mr. Flay is the cop, at least for now.

[Tamuz]

Lurkers don't necessarily have low PCs, they just have large gaps of time where there are no posts...

[LoudmouthLee]

Seriously... what's with the gangup? It hasnt stopped. I'll sit back and wait for flay.

[Mr. Flay]

Let me start this post by saying I know

four

things - innocent players - and the rest of this is speculation. Scum have been very hard to spot in this game, and the person I investigated was someone I was sure was going to come back guilty...

EnterYourNameHere

. However I got an

innocent result

, which limits my choices to Stam, LML, and Tamuz. I know EYNH hasn't posted in days, but here's how I read the thread with that knowledge:

• Kain
  - presumed bad, voted for by
  big_kahunia
  (RV), Flay, then unvoted by Flay, voted by EYNH in post 66, after which big_k jumps off, Tamuz jumps on and then Stam in quick succession, Tamuz unvoted after LML missed a chance to put on the 4th, to which LML put on a 3rd again the next day. Stam unvoted the following day. Tamuz put the third back on several days later, and then took it off a couple of days after that. Flay put a third vote on that same day, and Stam finished him off on the 31st. Turned out to be good. Voted for Stam first. Role-claimed townie in post 77. Had the strange 86-hour absence and then returned in half-an-hour, which Stam called him on. Really suspected Stam, EYNH, and to a lesser degree LML in his twilight posts.
• big_kahunia
  - voted for by
  Stam
  (RV) only, killed at night, turned out to be the doctor. Voted/suspicioned
  LML & EYNH
  as a scum pairing multiple times. Didn't really give off any tells that I saw for being the doc, so perhaps he was killed to set up LML/EYNH for a fall? That would leave Stam and Tamuz...
• EYNH
  - presumed bad and illogical, voted for by
  Flay
  (RV), who unvoted soon afterward, and then
  no one else the rest of Day One
  , despite lots of suspicions on him (mostly paired with LML). Turned out to be good according to my investigation. Completely worthless logic on the Kain bandwagon (admitted it in post 144), which Stam and Kain called him on. Tamuz ignored this entirely, which was interesting. In fact, all three suspicious players pretty much avoided voting for him, despite lots of FOSes and questions.
  Day Two, he started to find LML and Flay scummy, but hasn't posted since #159. Despite that, there's an uncontested investigation on him proving him innocent.
• Mr. Flay
  - presumed innocent, thought to be 'controlling', voted for by
  LML
  (RV), and that's all for Day One. Turned out to be the cop. In post 46 I noted that myself, Kain, and Tamuz had been receiving most of the suspicions so far. Two of those three are proven bogus now...
  Trying to figure out why I didn't die last night...presumably the mafia assumed I *would* be protected, since I asked for it. I'll die tonight for sure, obviously, so that won't tell us anything.
• Stam
  - Already voiced most of my concerns about him from Day One, mainly inconsistency and pulling the trigger on Kain. His attitude toward LML is also very interesting. Voted for by
  EYNH
  (RV), then Kain, at which point EYNH unvoted and no one else voted for him the rest of Day One, although LML put several FOSes on him. That means all votes for him (all tow, granted) were from pro-town players; also very interesting.
  Woke up Day Two with some undefined suspicions (post 156), then turned on LML & EYNH. When I said I was the cop, he said he thought Tamuz would be (post 173), though Tamuz had already made it pretty clear he wasn't in his opening post... Then put out an irrelevant FOS on Nanook, our new mod, instead of content. Threatened to vote LML if he didn't post after ~40 hours from daybreak. Backed off his suspicions on EYNH to favor LML. His list of scumminess in post 167 was LML, EYNH, Flay, and Tamuz, almost identical to Tamuz' list three posts earlier.
• LML
  - Drew a lot of suspicion all day, including from big_kahunia. Never got any random votes at the beginning, but was voted for by myself in post 50/51, then Stam in post 54, and big_k in post 68 several days later to make 3. Stam then jumped ship to Kain and stayed there off and on until the end. In post 86 he stated that he 'may' be a power role without pressure being put on him. Didn't think Kain was scum, even though he voted for him to prove a point. Bizarre statement in post 80 about 'being all set to defend Kain' led to this. Ignored Stam most of the day, until twilight and Stam had pulled the trigger on Kain. Was at 3 votes on 5/22, from Mr. Flay, Stam, and big_kahunia. Two of those are proven pro-town now, and Stam switched to put a third vote on Kain two posts later (#71). Lee's cavalier attitude toward being lynched also makes me suspicious ("lynch me if you want to", "everything I do is suspicious"). In post 90, he stated bald-faced that he was voting for Kain not because he thought he was guilty, but because he wanted to show that the town would find him suspicious no matter what he did.
  Absent for the first part of Day Two, then pops in at posts 168 and 169, saying he finds Flay innocent (noticed I was the cop?) and Stam and EYNH the scummiest.
• Tamuz
  - Got 'bad vibes' on Stam after my post asking if he was being coached (#62), very non-committal overall. Voted for LML in post 120, after two weeks, to 'get things done'. Switched off of Kain to do so, though, so that may not mean anything... Post 65 directly addresses my saying that Tamuz and LML hadn't interacted, and he said "though it may just get me killed in LML turns out to be guilty". Tried the 'kill-me-I'm-a-power-role' gambit before nightfall, which is weird enough to maybe be pro-town. Suspected four different people in post 99, leaving off just Kain and EYNH (and himself). In post 111, he said he had a vote ready in a heartbeat if there was a deadline, but didn't say who it was (maybe Kain?).
  Posted first when Day Two broke, which is sometimes a tell of someone with a night action...8 minutes after daybreak, in fact. Also suspected EYNH at that point, "but I don't discount anyone". Keeping his options open? His preferences for scumminess in post 164 was EYNH, LML, Stam, and Flay.

In post 75/76 I wrote this:

And at this point I wouldn't *expect* a scum to be on their fellow teammates' bandwagon, so in theory these pairs should be unlikely: EYNH-Kain, Tamuz-Kain, Flay-LML, Stam-LML, big_k-LML, Stam-Kain. Interestingly this still leaves the possibilities I mentioned in post 58 (LML-EYNH or LML-Kain, Stam+?).

Both of the first two possibilities are now proven impossible, and the "unlikely pairs" are all confirmed impossible except for Stam-LML. Could be a WIFOM game though...

Everything from post 175 to post 180 between Tamuz, LML, and Stam is confusing. But the fact that Stam wants us to "ignore what LML says" makes me suspicious that he's setting LML up for a fall, and making himself look good. I'm about 89% sure Stam is scum, with either Tamuz as his partner (if you buy that big_k was killed to set up LML & EYNH), or LML (who ignored Stam/almost defended him/etc). Hard to say, really, but we've got a 66% chance or better...

EnterYourNameHere

, we need you! Now that you're proven innocent, I've got to listen to you, and only hope you make more logical sense today than yesterday....

[Stam]

Wow, Mr. Flay, you really

are

thorough.
There is still a small chance you are lying, but all signs are that you aren't, so this leaves me with one clear pair:

LML and Tamuz

, and I am ready to vote on any one of them. I understand from your post that I will have a hard time conviencing you of that. I will, of course, be happy to answer any question you or EYNH might have.

One thing I didn't get from your post - where did Tamuz make it clear he wasn't a cop? I missed that.

You say that we have 66% chance - maybe today, but in order to win we need to be right today AND tomorrow - so we have only 33%

Anyway, I second your call:

EnterYourNameHere

- please, come on and help. If you don't have time to read it all, at least read what Mr. Flay wrote.

Things don't look good, but I hope I will eventually sucseed in convincing you two in my innocence.

[LoudmouthLee]

I will be responding to this in great length later tonight, Flay. I remember a post in particular that could prove someone scum, and posture us for at least a 66% chance tomorrow. But, duty calls. I'll bbl.

[Tamuz]

Flay, my scummy list is not much like Stams at all...

Barring a chance of Flay making a false RC, which I doubt any mafia would do in his place, there really was no need, from my point of view Stam and LML must be mafia. I am ready to go for this, I have already voiced that Stam looks quite obvious as mafia in the post where I listed my suspicion choices. Then as I know myself to be clear, and Mr. Flay has cleared EYNH, LML is left to be Stam's partner.

'though we should hear from EYNH because he is way to silent in deciding his own fate...

As to a 'tell' by posting right after day break. No... just no. I posted at 9:58 PM, which is just a little before I start going to bed on school nights, which that day was. Of course before then I check my email & my mafia games, which gives me perfect opportunity to get on and post before I go to sleep

[EnterYourNameHere]

Well, I just woke up, and get on and see this. Give me an hour or so to wake up, and I'll reply in length. I will say, for now, that I find Stam/Tamuz to be the most likely pair.

Also, I'd like to take this time to apologize for my poor play this game. I'm normally more active, and I'm not normally this bad. Again, sorry.

[EnterYourNameHere]

Follow-up post.

I've re-read everything, and I think I was mistaken in my last post: I really have no clue. I'm having a hard time discounting any pair; it could be anyone. If you put a gun to my head and made me lynch someone, it would be Stam, but we should work to try to find both mafia today.

First of all, I would like to say that I believe LML's claims about his internet connection, because he has been absent in another game I am in with him as well.

Stam/LML: Stam places a second vote on LML after Flay votes him for seemingly "manufacturing reasons after the fact". Stam's post has little content however, and LML calls him a sheep, but does not FOS him. Stam claims for a good part of the day that LML is the most suspicious--however, he eventually jumps off the LML wagon after it acquires its third vote, to put a third vote on Kain. Stam stays on the Kain wagon until the day is over. Since the break of Day 2, Stam has been going after me and LML, supposedly LML more, despite placing FOSes on both of us.

I'll post my analyses of the Stam/Tamuz and Tamuz/LML pairs as soon as I get home from lunch. But I'll mention this while it's on my mind: just because I'm clear, doesn't mean I'm right. I urge the town to take my suspicions as honest, but not the definitive truth, which is the kind of vibe I'm getting.

[LoudmouthLee]

Okay... here it is. Roleclaim for me, followed by some mild speculation... All of which is plausable. I am going to bold part of what I say here, basically because it's a NECESSARY READ for everyone.

It's obvious that I was a townie trying to hint at a power role. I was trying to draw mafia fire, but i would be a very silly kill... being that going into today, I was the likely lynch target.

We're all forgetting something of importance, and I NEED you all to realize this...

WE MAY ALL BE LED TO OUR GRAVE BY THE SCUM!

Here's how -

According to Maximus's opening post (which is no longer there.. I'm hoping you all remember.), there are a few possibilities for the game layout. There are only 2 left right now.

#1 - Doc, Cop, Townies, Scum
#2 - Doc, Townies, Scum

What I'm getting at is that I am currently speculating that Flay.. an amazing player, tried a blind gambit, and it is currently working.

AS OF RIGHT NOW, FLAY HAS AN INNOCENT RESULT, NOT A GUILTY RESULT. BY TAKING FLAY'S CLAIM AT FACE VALUE, IN A LYNCH AND LOSE SITUATION, WE COULD BE BEING LED TO A QUICK LYNCH AND A LOSS FOR THE TOWN!

In layman's terms...

Flay came out with NO pressure on him (scummy trait?) and claimed cop and BEGGED anyone to counterclaim him (another scummy trait). He then takes the "scummiest" player of day 1, EYNH, and proclaims him INNOCENT.

Flay took a blind gambit there... He claimed first, so he obviously looks less scummy if another person comes out and claims cop as well. Since no one has counterclaimed, it's a

POSSIBILITY

that Flay and EYNH ARE THE SCUM and you are all being led by them.

I am NOT saying that it's a definite, but think about it.

The quote that upset me the most and is leading to the

FoS: Flay

is this...

EnterYourNameHere, we need you! Now that you're proven innocent, I've got to listen to you, and only hope you make more logical sense today than yesterday....

I will repeat this for Tamuz and Stam... he is NOT PROVEN INNOCENT BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION.

[Tamuz]

I'd just like to point out how flawed Stam and LML's numbers both are. I didn't look into it earlier, but they are way off with their quantitative reasoning. This doesn't settle well with me, but really, It isn't my choice, I *know* of my innocence, in the same way LML and Stam believe their innocence. At this point in the game I must be convinces LML and Stam are oth mafia, Stam must pretend to be convinced LML and Myself are, and LML that Stam and I are mafia. Really our two mafia just have to show that they are the one of the three under the spotlight who is innocent. Crappy? Yes... but its how it goes.

Anyway, to why I was posting, a look at LML and Stam's numbers in response to Flay's numbers in his big post.:

I remember a post in particular that could prove someone scum, and posture us for at least a 66% chance tomorrow.

OK, LML you do know that if this game gets to a tomorrow we will move from 2 mafia + 3 townies to 1 mafia + 2 townies. One of these townies will be cleared since both Mr. Flay and EYNH can't be killed in one night. Therefore we will have 2 unknowns vieing for 1 spot. Hence a 50% chance 1 mafia in 2 people. If you had a 66% chance that would mean you know 2/3, in other words instant win for the town. No need to put fancy wording in it to make you feel special.

Stam, you do a similar thing

You say that we have 66% chance - maybe today, but in order to win we need to be right today AND tomorrow - so we have only 33% Sad

Your numbers don't add up.

LML, to what you wrote as i was typing this... I know he isn't confirmed, but I can't make a huge load of it. If Flay was mafia, couldn't he have said your scum, that would lead to a faster win than moving suspicion to the three of us. I assume that one of the 'guilty' three truely is scum. Why would Flay play with the chance of hitting that guilty one instead of just proclaiming a townie guilty and nixing him fast, although if he is scum, and we hit scum today I doubt we would lynch him tommorow (although he would be alive tomorrow which would be an instant kill. for him)

AGGGGH

[LoudmouthLee]

Just some more quotes that REALLY don't sit well with me:

All from the SAME FLAY post:

I'll die tonight for sure, obviously, so that won't tell us anything.

What if you were scum?

Was at 3 votes on 5/22, from Mr. Flay, Stam, and big_kahunia. Two of those are proven pro-town now

Who are the two PROVEN PROTOWN?

Flay, you're using bad logic here... you're making assumptions that we, as townies, CANNOT make.

I'm really getting worried about a Flay/EYNH pair.

[LoudmouthLee]

Tamuz, sorry for my poor math skills...

I'm an ENGLISH teacher

[big_kahunia]

Since I'm done worrying about my suga-momma, go town!

[Tamuz]

I told you guys Big K was fine, losing your suga-momma can't be that bad

LML, I'm a linguist... so Math isn't my strong suite either (150 points lower on my math section of the SATs than my english sections )

As to the question of the two proven townies, one is Big_k, and Flay was calling himself the other proven townie, as to himself he is proven.

I wish this was easier like in Newbie 99, 2 pairs each with a mafia in it. Here it could be any range of suspects

[LoudmouthLee]

Mr. Linguist...

Define the word "proven".

[Tamuz]

Big_k was proven as per his death scene
Flay, as I said called himself proven, just as I know I'm townie by my own PM from Maximus

[EnterYourNameHere]

I believe that Flay may be lying, especially after how scummy he looked coming out of the gate today. And if he is scum, Tamuz is almost 100% his partner. Both Tamuz's and Flay's first posts today were blatantly "scum-tastic": Tamuz's seemingly trying to speed up a lynch on me, and Flay's "no-mommy-I-didn't-do-it" post. In addition, Tamuz is now defending Flay from LML's accusations. Looking back to Day 1, Flay and Tamuz had very little interaction. I see Flay giving Tamuz an FOS for claiming that he forgot about the thread, and that's about it, and Tamuz putting Flay rather low on his suspects list (post 99), and that's about it. In the post where he claims cop, Flay seems to be suggesting that Stam and LML are out scum--not Tamuz.

Now, I'd like to hear from Flay before we decide what we're doing with this. I'd like to see his response to all this. At this point, I'm having a hard time putting any of the three "unconfirmed" together: each pair has its supporting and detracting facts. Hopefully, as the day progresses, we'll learn more.

[LoudmouthLee]

Big_k was proven as per his death scene
Flay, as I said called himself proven, just as I know I'm townie by my own PM from Maximus

Proven is a loaded word, especially in this context.

Big_K is proven, in death. Proven is not to oneself, but to the town. As of right now, Flay is not proven to the town, and he keeps on posting like he is.

Frankly, it scares me.

[Mr. Flay]

One thing I didn't get from your post - where did Tamuz make it clear he wasn't a cop? I missed that.

In Tamuz' opening post of the day, he said he "wasn't discounting anyone." To me that means he had no additional information from what he had the night before. Plus, obviously in my universe, I know he's not the cop, so that colored my read of his post, especially since he was pointing the finger at the one additional person I knew was innocent. I don't think that makes Tamuz scum (or town), it just makes him not-a-cop.

You say that we have 66% chance - maybe today, but in order to win we need to be right today AND tomorrow - so we have only 33% Sad

On the percentages; I haven't done a full workup, but right now we have three people to choose from, assuming LML doesn't persuade you all to vote me or EYNH... Two of those are scum (*I* know this much, even if I haven't convinced the rest of you yet). 66% of getting it right today, minimum, plus any slip-ups scum may make. That means we get to continue til tomorrow, at which point one of three things happens:
1) I die. You all see I'm the cop, which means EYNH is confirmed, leaving two people to choose from (the survivors of today's shootout). 50% base chance tomorrow, but I really think that we'll see enough out of the scum today to choose right tomorrow.
2) EYNH dies. Kinda silly for scum to do this, since it leaves me alive with another investigation, which means you all see EYNH is pro-town, pretty much clearing any suspicions on me, and I have another investigation. That should be a lock on tomorrow (2-1), if they do something that dumb.
3) Someone dies at random. Basically this is the same as 2), except I *may* still have suspicions over my head, and the scum MAY kill the person I investigate. Still, we'd have me and EYNH and that's 2-1, another automatic win.
So really, that's why I'm sure I die tonight. Anything else is suicide for the scum, unless we lynch a pro-town today, which I'm pretty sure is what's being angled for right now...

Flay, my scummy list is not much like Stams at all...

How is it not? Yours says EYNH, LML, Stam, and myself... Stam's says LML, EYNH, myself, and Tamuz... except for the switch of your own names, everyone's within one place of their place on Stam's, in yours, and vice versa...

We're all forgetting something of importance, and I NEED you all to realize this...

WE MAY ALL BE LED TO OUR GRAVE BY THE SCUM!

Here's how -

According to Maximus's opening post (which is no longer there.. I'm hoping you all remember.), there are a few possibilities for the game layout. There are only 2 left right now.

#1 - Doc, Cop, Townies, Scum
#2 - Doc, Townies, Scum

Shenanigans. I can't call up the original post by Maximus any more than you can, but I remember that he didn't say ANYTHING about how the roles were spread out, what the role PMs looked like, anything. In the absence of evidence to the contrary, and per Norinel's rule that variant games must be labeled as such, that means this game HAS to have 3 townies, 1 doc, 1 cop, and 2 scum. I'll allow that you've got some concerns about me trying to deflect suspicion from myself/EYNH, but this isn't a good reason for it. I was under NO threat of lynch today even if I was scum, and I could have protected EYNH much better by (say) coming up with a false guilty result on yourself or Stam, rather than trying to convince you all that EYNH is actually on the side of good. Am I that foolhardy, Lee? Or are you searching for a reason to cast doubt on me?

The quote that upset me the most and is leading to the FoS: Flay is this...

EnterYourNameHere, we need you! Now that you're proven innocent, I've got to listen to you, and only hope you make more logical sense today than yesterday....

I will repeat this for Tamuz and Stam... he is NOT PROVEN INNOCENT BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION.

I can't decide right now if you're a paranoid townie or a panicked scum. Take that as a compliment, either way... I'd doubt me too. But since we're in lynch-or-lose, any cop we have CANNOT afford to have me railroading the game today. I'd come out in their place....and if no one does, what rational reason do we have to doubt EYNH's innocence by my investigation?

I don't like it either. I hemmed and hawed on whether to investigate EYNH, yourself, or Stam...and I picked the one I thought most likely to come up guilty. I actually *didn't* investigate you, because I didn't want to end up with an innocent result and be placed in this position. Imagine my surprise...


I appreciate the compliment to my skills, but really, I haven't got this many brass balls in my pocket. I'm finally pro-town in another game and am sweating bullets over every step of this Day... even though I already know I'm a walking dead man.

More in a bit, on the suspicions of me and Tamuz...