Mini 852- Crayola Catastrophe Game Over (Post 1158)


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Post Post #550 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2009 2:09 am

Post by ChiboSempai »

Kirbyoshi wrote:
Wow, never thought I'd say this, but because of the above post, Shanba's actually starting to look more pro-town. He still has yet to explain away Snow's blunder(s), but on the 545, he basically took the words right out of my mouth, and spat them out a different color :P Still waiting on Yankee though...with a name like that, he's gonna have to do alot to prove himself town (kidding).
Remember that someone with a lot of suspicion cast on them has no choice but to carefully act as pro town as possible. Surely everyone is here to act pro town and not have suspicion, but it seems kind of odd that his post came off to you as exactly what you would expect a townie to say (since you said it's the same as you were about to say) when instead of looking at all of his posts in general and making that assumption. I suppose he's doing a good job then of attempting to rid the suspicion on him.

However... Does that last post take away all of the scummy actions of SB? Does that post take away any doubt that was on him earlier in the game? Remember that he's forced to play 100% like a townie (or he will get lynched) at this point, and him or SB might not have been so careful earlier hence the slip ups. You can't erase the past posts by them...
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Post Post #551 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2009 11:53 am

Post by Kirbyoshi »

It absolutely does not. Shanba is still scum, it's just there are downward forces now at work on his scumminess that don't at all negate the upward forces. But yeah, Shanba is so scum.
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Post Post #552 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2009 6:51 pm

Post by Yankee »

how can you be so sure that shanba is scum. I mean i agree her role from snow bunny is suspicious but i am not 100% sure she is scum because of that. The only way you can be so sure is if either you are his scum partner or you are a cop and investigated him. otherwise there is no way to be so sure...
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Post Post #553 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:00 am

Post by ChiboSempai »

Find me a better candidate of who is scum from what we've learned so far.

Shanba is by far most likely to be scum.

Technically no one is ever 100% sure about who is scum or not, but that is why we spend time discussing each day to try and find out who is scum, and Shanba by far still stands out at the top of the list.
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Post Post #554 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2009 3:13 am

Post by Shanba »

Yankee wrote:how can you be so sure that shanba is scum. I mean i agree her role from snow bunny is suspicious but i am not 100% sure she is scum because of that. The only way you can be so sure is if either you are his scum partner or you are a cop and investigated him. otherwise there is no way to be so sure...
It's a stylistic choice. Many good players choose to exaggerate their degree of certainty over a belief that someone is scum for effect (Glork comes to mind.) Others choose not to. I do it myself.

I think the case against me is overblown. I think ChiboSempai has now descended into full on tunnel mode is falling prey to confirmation bias (notably when he accused me of slipping: elvis_knits has already explained how that could never possibly be scummy.) I had begun to think we were moving on but it seems not: if you're still going to prosecute the case against me, people, then I want a response to some of my defences. Notably this one:
Shanba wrote:
Kirbyoshi wrote:
Shanba wrote:
I have a question for you people: what did scum gain by snow_bunny's hammer?
You really need us to answer this? Ok...

Snow, unless she has some role-revealing role, would not have known that SOG was Jester. If she was scum, which most of us believe she was/you are, scum didn't really "gain" anything. Rather, they lost something they're glad to be rid of; a voter, who could assist in lynching them, and a vocal player (remembering they/y'all had no idea he wasn't scum), who could build up cases against them.
See, the more I think about it, the less I think this really holds. I firmly believe that by that point the semioldguy lynch was inevitable. If this is the case, then surely all the town lost was time. The scum gained, in essence, a slightly shorter day: an advantage, but not one that merits the risk snowbunny is taking by hammering.
[color]As this seems to be the sticking point for most players.[/color]
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Post Post #555 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2009 3:40 am

Post by elvis_knits »

I'm still conflicted. Shanba has said some things that are sort of like town-tells for me. Am I sure about that? No. But it makes me reluctant to vote him.

However, snowbunny was scummy. Primarily because she used an iso read of SoG to vote him in the first place. Doing an iso read of a player because people are voitng him and looking for ways for him to be scum is pretty biased. It's like you're going in with the intent of finding dirt (which you can on anybody), and you're doing it because other people are already voting the guy (so the idea doesn't come from you... you're just climbing onto their suspicions wihtout thinking for yourself).

Also the hammer was bad because I had just replaced in and it didn't give me a chance to read, so that was anti-town.

But I'm not sure how I feel about how everyone jumped on her BEFORE finding out he wasn't scum. I mean, if SoG had flipped scum, then there wouldn't be that much cause to be mad at snowbunny (still not allowing me to read and post was slightly anti-town, but I bet nobody would have cared if SoG had been scum). But some people were building a case against her before SoG even flipped. And I think it's a little weird if you're on the SoG wagon, you're supposed to think he's scum, so why get mad about the hammer before you know if it's good or bad? I want to look at people's comments to see if I think it looks like they knew SoG would not flip scum. Because if you're on the SoG wagon, you should still think he's gonna flip scum.
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Post Post #556 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2009 4:55 am

Post by ChiboSempai »

Obviously someone who has suspicion on them from strong tells (from Snow Bunny) is going to have to go out of their way to say specific things that could be a town tell. To me at least, a slip up is a slip up.

If SB had not replaced, would you vote SB now?
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Post Post #557 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2009 5:07 am

Post by elvis_knits »

ChiboSempai wrote:
Obviously someone who has suspicion on them from strong tells (from Snow Bunny) is going to have to go out of their way to say specific things that could be a town tell. To me at least, a slip up is a slip up.

If SB had not replaced, would you vote SB now?
Probably, since that would take away the town-tells.
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Post Post #558 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2009 7:46 am

Post by Pomegranate »

Shanbe has said some things that really made me think. But when it came down to it, I really felt that he was the best candidate for lynch. When voting someone, one obviously has to feel that this player is scum, or is by far the most likely to be scum(, which are effectively equivalent in this game). That was one of the reasons why I didn't vote for Shanba immediately; I did a read-through, and thought. In the end I came to the conclusion that he was the best person for me to vote for.
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Post Post #559 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2009 8:58 am

Post by Battousai »

Vote Count

Shanba (4) – ChiboSempai, Kirbyoshi, Pomegranate, Yankee
Yankee (2) – elvis_knits, Shanba
ZazieR (1) - SocioPath

Not Voting (3): GreenDude, Nachomamma8, ZazieR


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Post Post #560 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2009 8:58 am

Post by SocioPath »

elvis_knits wrote:
It's like you're going in with the intent of finding dirt (which you can on anybody)
Which I've proven!
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Post Post #561 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2009 10:23 am

Post by Kirbyoshi »

lol Socio, you're so scummy.

But seriously, I do believe I posted late in D1 (I think Twilight) that if SoG wasn't scum, Snow should be lynched (it may have actually been if SoG was TOWN, I can't quite remember). Either way, I stand by that opinion, even though it does lose a bit of meaning by the Jester flip.
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Post Post #562 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2009 10:51 am

Post by Shanba »

I was going to wait until my lynch was inevitable before posting this, as a sort of goodbye and here is my final will and testament post, but then it occurred to me: what's the point? I'm self-censoring and that's not bad and unhelpful. I believe strongly in being as honest as possible in mafia (even when scum! It's so much easier to appear convinced about a townie looking scummy if you honestly believe his actions are scummy so++town points if you do that, haha.) These are my honest thoughts on the game, and they're a little different from when I replaced in:

Firstly, I'm pretty sure elvis_knits and chibosempai are town. elvis moreso than chibo for a slew of slightly complicates reasons and gut reads. However, my reads on chibo and elvis are based on their positions on me: it very strongly feels like btoh are actually thinking and trying to work out whether I'm scummy even if both are coming to different conclusions. I think Chibo is slightly scummier partly because I thought he was scummier to start with and partly because it still occurs to me that it could be a scum ploy to distract attention from himself by attacking me in an over the top manner. But their approaches feel like what a good townie would do.

I was wavering on Budja too, but Yankee's entrance is ridiculously underwhelming (nice bland wagon vote) and contributes to the deep sense of unease I had a bout that player spot. I'm not sure he's in my top spot still though, as GreenDude is up there too, but I'll get back to that later.

I still think elvis_knits and Budja/Yankee are linked. Considering the lack of content generally that Budja gave us, it seems incongruous that he would choose that point to touch on. There's just an awkardness to the exchange which feels like he is talking about a scumbuddy. I can't put it any clearer than that, except to say that I have seen that sort of thing before (where Yos defended DGB, I'll look up the link if you like). I think it's worth pursuing IF elvis turns up scum (and not the other way round).

While Pom does appear to be thinking about the case and legit scumhunting now, I can't shake the feeling it's just a ploy, especially given how little she had done before. It's like she knows fo form's sake she has to be indecisive.

SocioPath looks p. damn town to me with his "attack me" stunt. I wouldn't lynch him any time soon. I haven't seen anything else really, though, that makes him look as town as people are saying he does... which makes me worry a little bit that there's a bandwagon effect going on here, especially as a lot of the players seem to be on the same page and think similrly about this game.

I'm less convinced about zazie's towniness than I was when I replaced in. I find playstyles like hers hard to read, and while I was originally reading chamber's replace out as a towntell the more I think about it the more it seems it's actually a nulltell. Still wouldn't put her in the top half of the scumminess list.

Greendude has offered a bland, blanket: Shanba is scummy quote with no real backing. He also hasn't offered much content in this game and even when active was active lurking somewhat. Player slot deserves more pressure and is about equal with Budja on my list.

The others I don't really have a decent read on. I'm slightly uneasy about Kirby for reasons I can't quite express, and slightly happy with nachomamma.

THEORY (you can stop reading here if you like, as this isn't all that game relevant:)Now, I'd normally be a bit cautious about posting who I thought was town, as it's easy fro scum to manipulate that information. BUt in this particular game I don't think it matters, for a couple of reasons. First, I am very likely to be lynched anyway: it doesn't matter whether scum know who I think is town as they can't use that when I'm dead. Second, if I can contribute to a feeling that a player is town; well, if I believe in my reads, why shouldn't I want town to think townies are town (if you see what I mean?) Games can be won as much by isolating several town players as anything else. So in a game where I have strong town reads I want the rest of the townies to know and acknowledge this.

Aside: I want this to be a relevant reference point until the end of the game. For those who are convinced I am scum or otherwise, it makes sense to drill me for as much information about the state of the game as possible before lynching me. If you have any particular issues you want me to address, I suggest you ask me about them.

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Post Post #563 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:33 pm

Post by elvis_knits »

I am not voting shanba.

I decided.

I am very happy voting yankee/budja because he replaces in and doesn't read the thread but puts his vote on shanba. Going for the highest vote-getter without actually reading the thread is VERY scummy. And now he's challenging kirby over his sureness of their votes on shanba? In case yankee forgot -- he's voting shanba too. So why is he attacking people for voting the same person he's voting?? Because he doesn't actually think shanba is scum? Because he KNOWS shanba is not scum? Because he wants to make sure other people on the bandwagon look bad?

Also, please note the mention of a cop and role fishing in yankees post.

I am very much in agreement with most of what shanba has said (except the part where he thinks I'm linked ot yankee/budja which I don't see, but whatever, I don't really care). I think chibo and kirby are just tunnelling town. I think chibo seems sincere and I've played with kirby before recently and I think he's sincere too. I sense no manipulation from them. I just think they're wrong.
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Post Post #564 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:54 pm

Post by SocioPath »

Speaking from a gameplay perspective, I'd rather lynch unhelpful/lurker/abusive/VI town, than scum thats doing more scum hunting than most.

That said, I still think Shanba is scum, and nothing he has the power to do will convince me otherwise, it is outside of his hands and power.
But that doesn't mean he is the best lynch at this point.
ShanbaScum still has some good insight left about him. That can't be said so much about others.

Unvote
Vote: Zazier

Still second on the list of scum.
Yankee though is fighting hard to climb the ranks though.
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Post Post #565 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:19 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

Will post tomorrow, at a friend's house.

Just so y'all know that I'm not completely gone.
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Post Post #566 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:58 pm

Post by Kirbyoshi »

Socio, I TOTALLY don't agree with that post. ANY scum is a better lynch than ANY town, and any insight given by scum specifically about the game is basically useless, as scum's main objective is deception. I think Zazie (along with being a "him") is town. He hasn't done anything in my book that deserves lynching.
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Post Post #567 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2009 3:53 am

Post by elvis_knits »

I see there are some people not voting. Deadline is in three days.

Anyone who is not voting by deadline will earn my vote in future days. There is no excuse for being that lurky and unhelpful.

Anyone who does not get their ass in here and make a legitimate attempt to help the town scum hunt and reach a consensus should DIE.
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Post Post #568 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2009 4:34 am

Post by Yankee »

Nice analysis Shanba, after that post im getting a sense that you are a townie because i dont believe a scum would be that detailed about their opinions of everyone. This doesnt mean I agree with all that you said, but alot of it seems valid. Also, could i have a description of what Budja has done to seem so scummy? I read most of this thread and other then lurking alot i didnt notice alot of scumtells, but i could have skimmed over them.

Also, I am disappointed with Nachomamma this game. I have played one other game with him with him as town and he was extremely active and very informative about his thoughts. He was also very aggressive with scum hunting. This game seems like polar opposites....

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Post Post #569 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:28 am

Post by elvis_knits »

Hey yankee,

How about you tell me why you started attacking people who were voting shanba while you were voting shanba. Also, why were you role fishing?
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Post Post #570 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:38 am

Post by Yankee »

i wasnt attacking "people", i was attacking Chibo because he was saying Shanba IS scum, almost as if he knew without a shadow of a doubt. This seems strange to me, and i didnt mean to role fish, i was just pointing out that only the Mafia and the cop would be so certain of a person's scumminess.
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Post Post #571 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:39 am

Post by Yankee »

ugh, forgot to color it... Sorry Mod...
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Post Post #572 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:54 am

Post by Battousai »

Prodding GreenDude and ZazieR
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Post Post #573 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2009 1:46 pm

Post by Pomegranate »

I read Shanba's long post, but it didn't really mean anything to me. It would make sense to write it if he's town, in order to give opinions, but it could be a scum ploy to give him until tomorrow. IF he flips town, (I don't see it coming )then I will go through his posts carefully, but right now I'm happy with my vote.
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Post Post #574 (ISO) » Sat Oct 17, 2009 6:16 pm

Post by ChiboSempai »

elvis_knits wrote:
I am not voting shanba.

I decided.

Reasoning please?

Also, don't people realize what is going on? The extreme analysis is more of a scumtell than anything to me. Fact, it is generally considered to be a towntell if you analyze a lot trying to really rule out the scum.

Fact, Shanba needs to appear as town as possible to get this suspicion off of him (ESPECIALLY if hes scum). So would a regular townie go all out in such an insanely long post like that? I really don't think so. I feel it was almost forced that he had to do something like that, almost like he's trying to act so town to convince people otherwise. It's a great thing to analyze things as they happen, find out what's going on, decipher actions, etc. But I almost feel like part of this is for the shock value of seeing so much. It doesn't change anything for me.
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