Mini 863 - Space Station Mafia: GAME OVER - EVERYONE'S DEAD

[milkshake]

This is the odds assuming alignment is random. Do you really think the hiphop/Messiah pair has done enough to jump higher than it's pregame 9%? One scum/one town might be a worthwhile bet, but really, looking for scumpairs on the opening day is almost completely useless. Let's just focus on finding one. Fortunately for everyone, hiphop is that someone.

I'm not sure I agree that looking for scumpairs in the first day is useless, because of this: It seems like when dealing with your scumbuddies is when you would have to adjust your natural behavior the most (and I think hiphop adjusted his natural behavior.) When dealing with town, scum can feel free to "scumhunt" using their ordinary tactics. But scumhunting your scumbuddy is very difficult. (Seems like bussers just end up throwing buzzwords at eachother... "OMGUS" and "rolefishing" for Peabody and CooLDoG respectively maybe? )

That said, I'm not 100% attached to hiphop/messiah, because I do think it is based on alot of assumptions (of mine) that aren't necessarily correct.

So, obviously I would be very happy if hiphop flipped scum. I do find his behavior with regards to Messiah kind of scummy (I also note that Messiah is a bit protective of hiphop- although maybe just because she likes him for not being on her wagon). But him flipping town would leave me no more certain about anybody than before. I prefer the Messiah lynch because, odd as this may seem, I feel like there's "insurance" on that lynch.

Maybe I'll hammah. =======[]

[charlatan]

Then you both think of it the same way. It's the same spectrum, guilty to innocent, and even if you see things as "shades of innocent" then you necessarily see some as less innocent (therefore more guilty) than others. You've not only not countered AGM, but you've essentially contradicted your statement from before.

How?

Before, you said that "guilty" is an absolute term, a black/white sort of thing. Like if someone's guilty, they're guilty, no shades of it. However, what we're talking about is

perceived

guiltiness, and so if you believe that someone can be less innocent or more innocent than someone else, then that also means they can be more/less guilty (it's the same thing).

[charlatan]

Also milkshake, are you miscounting again? He's at L-2. You can't hammer right now.

[milkshake]

Also milkshake, are you miscounting again? He's at L-2. You can't hammer right now.

Not this time. Hence "maybe I'll hammah..." if he was at L-1 there would be no maybe. It would be: ask for a claim... and then either hammer or don't!

[CooLDoG]

Milk, this is the vote right now:

all but one scum is on the wagon and can't hammer

all scum on wagon, thus can't hammer

or all scum off wagon because he is one of thir buddys, if he flips scum at the end of this the voteing record will be worth alot...

(sorry I have not been on for a while)

@at hip-hop yes you did say day one stuff is "worthless now"

[NewAgeWarrior]

Milkshake, why are you obsessed with the hammer? If you think he is scummy, vote for him.

[milkshake]

obsessed

??

I do think he is scummy, but only marginally so. Part of the reaosn I _might_ hammer, but am not voting now, is because I can't trust you guys not to hammer him even if he claims cop or something! The other possible option, of course, is for him to claim now, and then it would be obvious what the proper move is.

[NewAgeWarrior]

That makes no sense. Your willing to hammer someone marginaly scummy, but not willing to vote someone maginaly scummy in the event they get hammered? WTF?

I have a theory. I was going to say this in my last post but decide to wait for milkshake to post first.
I think that milkshake is trying to not fit into the 3rd vote theory. To summarize, I think that he wants to be the hammer and not someone in the middle vote. It has a weird angle to it, but to me it makes sense.
After a lynch goes off, especially if it is a townie, the typical 2 people under most scrutiny is the BW starter and the hammer for obvious reasons, so to "slip" under the radar, scum will try to stay in the middle votes. This method is especially useful on day one when there is so little evidence that having bad/little reasons is not such an unusal thing. He may be trying to avoid this, and when d-2 comes he could say things like "would scum really hammer?", ect...

Far fetched theory, but a voice in my head said I should share it so I did.

[charlatan]

Well, for what it's worth I'd expect that scum would be awfully hesitant to hop on the end of a bandwagon that's going to lynch a scumbuddy on Day 1 if there's any chance it might derail. It's got to be quite the blow to morality. Though, on the flipside, it might be that they are already on board and that's why the bandwagon has grown so quickly. I'm feeling good with where my vote's at right now, though.

[charlatan]

Err, blow to morale, I meant.

[milkshake]

think that milkshake is trying to not fit into the 3rd vote theory. To summarize, I think that he wants to be the hammer and not someone in the middle vote. It has a weird angle to it, but to me it makes sense.
After a lynch goes off, especially if it is a townie, the typical 2 people under most scrutiny is the BW starter and the hammer for obvious reasons, so to "slip" under the radar, scum will try to stay in the middle votes. This method is especially useful on day one when there is so little evidence that having bad/little reasons is not such an unusal thing. He may be trying to avoid this, and when d-2 comes he could say things like "would scum really hammer?", ect...

Well, that would be awefully crafty of me... but then wouldn't my announcing that I'm waiting to hammer kind of defeat that? ^^

Anyway, all I want is for us to not screw this up by making a just plain stupid lynch ("I claim automatically-confirmed-during-night-1 NK-immune townie!" "Ok, I'll lynch you anyway!") or let scum make an innapropriate hammer (they probably wouldn't... but then they know we know they probably wouldn't... and you know what they call that. )

Basically, it would just be plain innapropriate to place the L-1 vote now with no claim (and no "I'm not claiming" or any posts at all from hiphop.)

[charlatan]

L-1 is not actually a big scary thing unless you make it one. Someone quickhammering before a claim would be extremely suspicious.

[hiphop]

@charlatan Which is easier to find? Scumtells or towntells. Scumtells everybody spills those. Towntells, very rarely do I find scum make any.

@milkshake- I prefer to keep a tradition, and be at L-1 before I claim. Unless I refuse to claim, who would lynch me?

[milkshake]

@milkshake- I prefer to keep a tradition, and be at L-1 before I claim. Unless I refuse to claim, who would lynch me?

Maneuvering, eh?

unvote, vote: hiphop

Your mind tricks won't-a-work on-a-me.

[milkshake]

In other words: Let's have it. And nobody do anything stupid.

[Hoopla]

Claim, then hammer. We've dilly-dallied long enough today.

[hiphop]

Both scum: ~9%
One scum/one town: ~41%
Both town: ~50%

Where do you get these numbers from?

I get:
Both scum: ~5%
One scum/one town: ~41%
Both town: ~55%

So in theory we both should be town.

I claim town. That is claiming right?

I claim plain old vanilla ice cream.

[Hoopla]

Both scum: ~9%
One scum/one town: ~41%
Both town: ~50%

Where do you get these numbers from?

I get:
Both scum: ~5%
One scum/one town: ~41%
Both town: ~55%

Erm, yes. You're right, appologies for my bad math. I worked out the one scum/one town problem first, and inadvertantly multiplied the Both scum/Both town problems by two at the end thinking there was two different combinations for those too. That of course isn't true. Your numbers are right.

So in theory we both should be town.

Except, every combination of players has the same chance pregame of being both town. Do you have any final words before someone hammers?

[lobstermania]

Day One Vote Count #8

- as of post 317

hiphop (6):

Sposh, Peabody, Hoopla, CooLDoG, charlatan, milkshake

AlmasterGM (2):

NewAgeWarrior, Messiah

Messiah (1):

AlmasterGM

Peabody (1):

hiphop

Not Voting (2):

Coco, Empking

Reminder: With 12 people still alive it takes seven votes to lynch.

hiphop is at L-1.

[AlmasterGM]

I claim plain old vanilla ice cream.

LOL. Have a nice day.

Unvote. Vote: hiphop

GO HAMMAR GO.

[Hoopla]

Nice work guys, that's one down.

[CooLDoG]

if he does flip town (I higly dought watch the vote count, I am not lking the hammer, by AGM after some of his scummy play, yet he was pushed to hammer so...) I think we did good this day.

[NewAgeWarrior]

:/

[lobstermania]

Day One Vote Count #9

- as of post 322

hiphop (7):

Sposh, Peabody, Hoopla, CooLDoG, charlatan, milkshake, AlmasterGM

AlmasterGM (2):

NewAgeWarrior, Messiah

Peabody (1):

hiphop

Not Voting (2):

Coco, Empking

After several hours of discussion, one by one the crew started to turn thier eyes towards hiphop. Before he knew it, hiphop was cornered in the escape hatch. When the seventh hand was raised, they closed the door and pushed the button. The hatch opened up and hiphop was sucked out into the vacuum of deep space. Afterwards, while going through his remains, hiphop's diary was found with some scribbled notes about killing the Captain.

hiphop (lynched Day One)

-

MAFIA

It is now Night One. Any night actions must be sent to me via PM by 10:00am Sunday, Oct. 18th.

[lobstermania]

After a very productive, but emotionally stressful day, the crew returned to their rooms to sleep. Exactly eight hours later all eleven met up again in the cafeteria for coffee and breakfast. Time to get back to business.

Night One

- No Kill

Day Two has officially begun.

With eleven players alive it takes six votes to lynch.