Open 171- Carbon 14, Part 2!! Over!!

[afatchic]

Vote Count!!

Snow_Bunny-(2)- semioldguy, dramonic
semioldGuy-(2)- Snow_Bunny, Alduskkel

Not voting-(1)- Scigatt

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch!

Reflects Alduskkels vote below this post...

[Alduskkel]

I'm going to go with my gut on this one. SOG 174 just really bothers me because of 173, and many of his other posts just seem like soft bussing as I noted in my PBPA.

I can still easily see SB being scum though, since she has next to no explanation for her active lurking.

Vote: semioldguy

.

[Scigatt]

To get me started on suspicions, I decided to look into the NK. Here's Cass's pbp, including other players' significant mentions of her(tell me if I missed anything.)

39:Sees random vote meta as pointless, skips random vote.
57:Says she's having some problems getting into the game.
63:Calls out Khamisa for misrepresentation, votes her.
64:I commend her, pledge provisional support.
82:Comments on bandwagon over-reaction
84-87:Responding conversation to that comment
88:Me calling her out(for what I perceive to be trying to deflect my case, tbh)
89, 91:Responses to that.
99*:Mentions complication of investigator death, scolds S_B for keeping random vote
136:sog mentions that Cass has taken little ground
150:sog asks about Cass replacement
152:Cass responds to prod, happy with her vote, gets to reading
165:sog asks Cass about read
172:Ald. lists Cass as 3rd/4th suspicion(note that this is a response to a comment about the female players' activity)
176:sog talks about Cass as his main suspect, but says can't change wagons
177:sog votes for Cass
181:sog explains his intent to prod Cass

Now, looking at the final posts, it seems that Cass was an obsession of sog, with sog saying that she was his prime suspect. Also, note that sog was generally the highest-regarded(i.e. most likely town) player at the close of D1(anyone disagree?). In otherwords, sog was NK bait, but somehow he still lives. There are two explanations for this with the setup we have:
1.sog is well-disguised scum.
2.sog is honest but misguided town whom the scum wanted to use to cause a mislynch.

It is obvious now that sog was misguided in his suspicions, but it kinda hurts hypothesis #2 when

his main suspicion is NK'ed!

I can kinda see S_B or Ald. killing Cass, especially if they thought post 99 was an investigator tell(The only one I could find, note the asterisk), but to me a Cass NK seems to point to sog-scum. Now, before I make my vote, does anyone have any comments about my case?

[dramonic]

Sog is an intelligent man, I highly doubt he'd leave such an obvious trail to him. I think we have more chances that SB killed Cass, hoping to divert the attention on Sog. She IS pushing for us to read his ISO, which would lead to an analysis like this.

Pretty sure it's between Aldu and SB. Fortunately, we have two days (including this one) to kill the scum.

[Scigatt]

Sog is an intelligent man, I highly doubt he'd leave such an obvious trail to him. I think we have more chances that SB killed Cass, hoping to divert the attention on Sog. She IS pushing for us to read his ISO, which would lead to an analysis like this.

Pretty sure it's between Aldu and SB. Fortunately, we have two days (including this one) to kill the scum.

I'm not sure S_B would have taken time to think like that, given her apparent indifference throughout this game. Also, this seems like WIFOM to me, although I may have been to one to take it over that line in my previous post, and I may be mistaken about that. Anyways, I have some other opinions, and I'm not ready for D2 to end just yet.

P.S.:What is an ISO?

[dramonic]

ISO, for Isolation, is the integrity of the post made by a single person, which can be accessed in the bar just below the quick-submit button. ISO # refers to the number of a post in that person's ISO.

[Scigatt]

ISO, for Isolation, is the integrity of the post made by a single person, which can be accessed in the bar just below the quick-submit button. ISO # refers to the number of a post in that person's ISO.

When did they add that?

[dramonic]

I dont know. first time I came it was already there.

[semioldguy]

A posy-by-post analysis of a single player can be used to make anyone look scummy and are often themselves scummy. Isolation reads and post-by-post analysis of a player can be helpful, but it leads to ignoring much of the rest of the game and the larger picture as well as interactions between players.

I like Alduskkel's post analysis because it doesn't fall into the trap of isolating a single player, it looks at the interaction between players.

@Scigatt & dramonic
Speculation on night kills is not often fruitful and leads to lots of second guessing and whatnot. It could be argued that killing the towniest player is not the way to go in this setup, especially since scum being lynched day one means the nightkill must either hit one of the investigators or the target of the good investigator or it is auto-lose for the scum.

@Scigatt
Before lynching me I would like the other two non-confirmed (since they both are most suspicious of me) to post detailed cases on me and why they find me scummy. Tomorrow (since dramonic will surely take the hit tonight) you can review the two cases of the remaining players to help determine which seems genuine and which seems forced.

I of course think this will lead to Snow_Bunny, who hasn't committed to anything on her own this whole game. Her defense is based on WIFOM, saying that if she were scum that she could have stopped Khamisa's lynch isn't a good argument. She has changed her story as to why she didn't post at the end of the day which became. Initially it was because she "didn't have much to say" and "had nothing useful to add" which turned into that she "had suspects" and "had no motivation whatsoever to start a discussion so near the deadline." If that was the case you should have said that from the beginning. Who were you suspicious of on day one? Why were they suspicious to you and why didn't you feel like posting that?

@Snow_Bunny
My initial vote on Khamisa was a pressure vote to get her to do something or anything in the game. She reacted poorly and never did anything, nor did she even provide us with suspects. My pressure vote became a non-pressure vote because of that.

[Scigatt]

A posy-by-post analysis of a single player can be used to make anyone look scummy and are often themselves scummy. Isolation reads and post-by-post analysis of a player can be helpful, but it leads to ignoring much of the rest of the game and the larger picture as well as interactions between players.

I like Alduskkel's post analysis because it doesn't fall into the trap of isolating a single player, it looks at the interaction between players.

@Scigatt & dramonic
Speculation on night kills is not often fruitful and leads to lots of second guessing and whatnot. It could be argued that killing the towniest player is not the way to go in this setup, especially since scum being lynched day one means the nightkill must either hit one of the investigators or the target of the good investigator or it is auto-lose for the scum.

I'll grant you these two points.

@Scigatt
Before lynching me I would like the other two non-confirmed (since they both are most suspicious of me) to post detailed cases on me and why they find me scummy. Tomorrow (since dramonic will surely take the hit tonight) you can review the two cases of the remaining players to help determine which seems genuine and which seems forced.

...so that I can vote for whomever is the least persuasive writer. Because everyone knows good writing=townieness.

I of course think this will lead to Snow_Bunny, who hasn't committed to anything on her own this whole game. Her defense is based on WIFOM, saying that if she were scum that she could have stopped Khamisa's lynch isn't a good argument. She has changed her story as to why she didn't post at the end of the day which became. Initially it was because she "didn't have much to say" and "had nothing useful to add" which turned into that she "had suspects" and "had no motivation whatsoever to start a discussion so near the deadline."

Note:I trimmed out parts clearly addressed to S_B.

You know, it's even easier to make someone look scummy when you quote snippets without any references. If you're trying to convince me of her guilt, at least put some post numbers to the quotes.

Now, if we look at previous roles(which you insisted on doing(p.233), but never wrapped up.), you can see by process of elimination(me and Kham were scum, dram and you were investigators) that she was a townie in the other game. Also, we know that she is either townie or scum in this game. Also, you say that she wasn't as appealing as the first(you say that p.233, she says it p.58 and possibly elsewhere). Therefore, you are asking me to believe that S_B-scum in this game was less into the game than S_B-townie last game. Unless you can give me a good meta reason to believe that isn't unlikely, I can't in good conscience vote for S_B's lynch.

Anyways, here is my current suspicion list, 'cause I feel like posting it.(most scummy on top):
sog
Alduskkel
S_B

I really don't like the middle-ish part of sog's post, and dramonic's explanation(p.253) is striking me more as WIFOM now. I don't think currently that S_B is scum due to reasons stated above. My next course of action is to reread Alduskkel, but I'd also like to see everyone chip in to the conversation.

[Alduskkel]

Am I really you're 2nd suspect? I don't think S_B's meta here is that good of a tell. Maybe she likes playing scum less. Maybe she just finds it hard to get into a game again. I don't know. But so far the only evidence presented against me is that I couldn't prevent Khamisa's lynch, so I just find it weird that I'm you're 2nd suspect, especially given S_B's antics (or rather a lack thereof) at the end of Day 1.

[Snow_Bunny]

It's easy to get it: I had no motivation with this game whatsoever. It really hurts when the game other game started so good only to see it restarted by a mistake of the mods. Not nice.

Well, let's analyze SoG (who, btw, was my suspect in D1):

-First of all, the point I made clear a few posts ago, SoG's vote jumping. He switches his both back and fourth, never really providing a good reason to any of them. Post 108 Post 166 Post 174 Post 177 Post 189. It's true that the lynch finally hit scum, but it could be easily have been busing from SoG. After all, he really never provided a good reason to vote for her. Yeah, he says it was a pressure vote that become this and that, but you never said that before. On D1 you never provided a good explanation for any of your votes (not even for your first vote against me Post 42)
-He insists on players placing votes:

@Snow_Bunny
You have been recently quiet as well. Are you feeling better? You still haven't placed a vote.

Why only an FoS instead of a vote?

You need to put your votes somewhere and come up with suspects.

-He seems to contradict himself regarding Khamisa. He thinks of the possibility of Khamisa being town and that he like much more the players on dramonic's wagon than Khamisa's (here), thinks that Cass is a better lynch (here), and yet ends up voting for her in the end.

In conclusion, he really has no reason to vote and support a Khamisa's lynch, yet he still does till the end. Seems like bussing to me. He insist on other players placing their votes somewhere, and taking into account the size of this game, that's not good. Opportunistic, and scummy.

[semioldguy]

V/LA in all my games for a couple days, back problems acting up again. Hope to be back by this weekend

[Alduskkel]

Get well soon. I'm waiting on Scigatt to respond to my post up above.

[Scigatt]

Am I really you're 2nd suspect? I don't think S_B's meta here is that good of a tell. Maybe she likes playing scum less. Maybe she just finds it hard to get into a game again. I don't know. But so far the only evidence presented against me is that I couldn't prevent Khamisa's lynch, so I just find it weird that I'm you're 2nd suspect, especially given S_B's antics (or rather a lack thereof) at the end of Day 1.

I have a somewhat town read on S_B. I have a somewhat scum read on sog. I have no read on you yet. It's that simple.

[Alduskkel]

Are we waiting for semioldguy or something? Because this game is stalling...

[Scigatt]

Are we waiting for semioldguy or something? Because this game is stalling...

Sorry, but I haven't been giving much attention to this game recently. I'll try to get to rereading you ASAP.

[Scigatt]

Well, I wasn't gonna post anything until after the move, but since it seems like that won't occur for a while, here's some notes on Alduskkel I took and my reactions:

-He votes for sog on random vote suspicions, then backs off after doing a meta.(p. 26-39)
-He votes for me, then stops posting for a while. The meta checks out, though.(p. 45-75)
-His first post afterwards, right after my post 75, goes with the case presented there. After his first questioning of dramonic, he only makes one post with solid evidential support(p.117), while I do all the heavy arguing.(p. 76-149)
-As my case is winding down, he asks for Khamisa to claim investigator. I have a minor argument about it with him. (p. 154-160)
-Right afterwards, he runs with my idea of a Khamisa-dramonic link.
(p. 161-167)
-Note for p.172:Khamisa's vote was in confirmations, thus shouldn't have counted.
-He spends the first part of page 8 probing sog for his vote changes(p. 175-182)
-The rest of that day is him talking about S_B who avoided posting in this game. (p. 183-191)
-When D2 starts, he is still onto on dramonic and S_B.(p.196)
-I start arguing with him about cop claims and he makes a really bad one and others call him on it.(p. 204-215). At this point he also starts to look at S_B and gets a little confused.(p. 207-210)
-After I make my vote, he makes a vote to dramonic at L-1, after which dramonic claims cop. Ald. backs off.(p. 215-217)
-He posts a pbp of Kham. and her links. He reverses his position on S_B and votes sog but backs off due to uncertainty.(p. 220-224)
-He begins to question S_B, but sparingly.(p. 213-243)
-Finally, he decides to make a stand on sog, trusting his gut(p.251)

Things that make him look scummy that I can think of right now:
-His post 161(Seems like a distancing post to me, and the timing seems odd too(right before he was asking for a claim).)
-His quick reversal of opinion on S_B from scummy to inattentive without any posts or new cases on her
-The fact that he 'coasted' on my case without contributing much for a good portion of D1

Things that make him look more town that I can think of right now:
-The fact that he caught S_B in the forum
-The fact that he did some work looking for sog's rvs meta.
-His serious thought about how others could have stopped the lynch.

Overall read: Slight scum, put him not ahead but close to sog with what I can see now.

Also, I have some comments on the most recent case on S_B, but I want sog to respond to my post 259 first, and that'll probably happen after the forum move.

[Alduskkel]

Well I can only really talk about 161, since the others are pretty firmly rooted in fact. Basically in 161 I was saying I was fine with either a dramonic lynch or a Khamisa lynch, disregarding any claims. I don't know why the timing seems odd to you.

[dramonic]

posting to avoid a prod.

Still firm in my vote. Scigatt, hammer whenever you want.

[semioldguy]

...so that I can vote for whomever is the least persuasive writer. Because everyone knows good writing=townieness.

No, because if they write nothing it gives you one less day/lynch to get a read on and writing nothing means that the scum can't slip up. You shouldn't be looking to or let yourself be persuaded, you should be looking for scumminess.

I did not post anything near the deadline because I had nothing useful to add.

Neither Khamisa's nor dram's wagons were appealing to me. What else I was going to say? I unvoted her because my vote was purely random. Would you have preferred my vote to stay where it was? Why?

My bad. No,

I had suspects, but nothing regarding the coming deadline. And truth be told, I had no motivation whatsoever to start a discussion so near the deadline

, specially after coming out from my sickness. Blame me if you will, but as someone else said, if I was scum, I had the chance to help Khamisa and probably myslynch, and I didn't. What does that tell you?

She changes her story in a matter of hours. If the second post was the reason, she shouldn't have felt the need to hide that reason from the town.

Now, if we look at previous roles(which you insisted on doing(p.233), but never wrapped up.), you can see by process of elimination(me and Kham were scum, dram and you were investigators) that she was a townie in the other game. Also, we know that she is either townie or scum in this game. Also, you say that she wasn't as appealing as the first(you say that p.233, she says it p.58 and possibly elsewhere). Therefore, you are asking me to believe that S_B-scum in this game was less into the game than S_B-townie last game. Unless you can give me a good meta reason to believe that isn't unlikely, I can't in good conscience vote for S_B's lynch.

Because people play differently under different roles and different people have different role preferences. I most prefer townie and was happy with the re-roll because I didn't have to be cop anymore (even though I was essentially townie in that game I couldn't have known that)

More information can help to get better reads on players. It doesn't always, but avoiding more information seems much less likely to help. I think Snow_Bunny's differences from last game in addition to her behavior alone in this game BOTH point to her being the remaining scum.

@Snow_Bunny
Of course I can't say that a vote is a pressure vote when it is, because saying that removes all the pressure of the vote if the person being voted doesn't believe it's real.

My vote for you in Post 42 was from your post about getting the game moving and get on a wagon and dramonic's following post. I started a wagon, which helped get us past the RVS stage and is something to get reads from. However, dramonic unmade the wagon before we could get many reads from it.

[afatchic]

Is a mass prod needed? Please post people!!

[Snow_Bunny]

Well, we're waiting for scigatt to make up his mind. That's all.

[Scigatt]

...so that I can vote for whomever is the least persuasive writer. Because everyone knows good writing=townieness.

No, because if they write nothing it gives you one less day/lynch to get a read on and writing nothing means that the scum can't slip up. You shouldn't be looking to or let yourself be persuaded, you should be looking for scumminess.

Maybe, but that doesn't mean the better their case is presented the less scummy they are. I don't see how one could get anything out of your proposal other than that, as scum has just as much motivation to make a good case on you as town does and they are working with the same evidence.

I did not post anything near the deadline because I had nothing useful to add.

Neither Khamisa's nor dram's wagons were appealing to me. What else I was going to say? I unvoted her because my vote was purely random. Would you have preferred my vote to stay where it was? Why?

My bad. No,

I had suspects, but nothing regarding the coming deadline. And truth be told, I had no motivation whatsoever to start a discussion so near the deadline

, specially after coming out from my sickness. Blame me if you will, but as someone else said, if I was scum, I had the chance to help Khamisa and probably myslynch, and I didn't. What does that tell you?

She changes her story in a matter of hours. If the second post was the reason, she shouldn't have felt the need to hide that reason from the town.

Personally, I don't find those excuses mutually exclusive. Especially given the situation she was asked to post in(two established bandwagons close to deadline), new suspicions are next-to-useless to town, as you essentially admit yourself on post 176. The only use such suspicions might be is for some NK-WIFOMing, and the fact that you keep harping on this makes me more suspicious of you.

Now, if we look at previous roles(which you insisted on doing(p.233), but never wrapped up.), you can see by process of elimination(me and Kham were scum, dram and you were investigators) that she was a townie in the other game. Also, we know that she is either townie or scum in this game. Also, you say that she wasn't as appealing as the first(you say that p.233, she says it p.58 and possibly elsewhere). Therefore, you are asking me to believe that S_B-scum in this game was less into the game than S_B-townie last game. Unless you can give me a good meta reason to believe that isn't unlikely, I can't in good conscience vote for S_B's lynch.

Because people play differently under different roles and different people have different role preferences. I most prefer townie and was happy with the re-roll because I didn't have to be cop anymore (even though I was essentially townie in that game I couldn't have known that)

More information can help to get better reads on players. It doesn't always, but avoiding more information seems much less likely to help. I think Snow_Bunny's differences from last game in addition to her behavior alone in this game BOTH point to her being the remaining scum.

If you wanted more information, I don't understand why didn't follow through or do that meta that I asked. You make a guess as to why she was less active in this game, but without a meta all that is is mere speculation. The fact that you say you want "more information" without living up to that just makes me want to lynch you.

Vote:semioldguy

[Alduskkel]

oh snap

Did we just win? Because if not then I'm going to have a hard time tomorrow...