Mini 863 - Space Station Mafia: GAME OVER - EVERYONE'S DEAD

[milkshake]

/confirm

The astronauts just up and kill the other astronauts? Oh dear. ^^

[milkshake]

(and I also don't get the whole astro on astro thing.)

Nono, I was just commenting on them killing their spacebuddies just because of a little cabin fever. Seems awefully brutal.

[milkshake]

[cartoon voice] "Hi, I'm Peabody! /confirm! Let's play!" [/voice]

[milkshake]

Vote: hiphop

because Spiderman is the best.

[milkshake]

Vote: Peabody for being the last to confirm.

That's a Mastin scum tell, right?

[milkshake]

Personally, I'm more interested in why an apparently innocent fellow such as Peabody annoys you.

[milkshake]

Well, I didn't really

imply

it, did I? And what isn't innocent about a common english surname!

Meanwhile, would you like a banana milkshake with caramel?

[milkshake]

Heh, why wouldn't he be

apparently

innocent? Interesting how CD mindlessly copies what CoCo and messiah said though... unfortunately, I've seen him do tht alot before so it might be a null-tell.

Alamaster and I have played in a game before. The game is ongoing, so I would rather not discuss things I'm not allowed to discuss. The game can be found here

Uh-oh, not sure I like rivalries! Let's not have any rivalries that are not produced right here in this game.

[milkshake]

By the way. Does anyone know how many scum there are? Isn't it usually 33%?

About. 25% is probably closer, I think.

[milkshake]

On the surface; alledgedly; visibly.

Why did you single me out when CooLDoG and CoCo did the exact same thing?

Wait, CoCo can't jump on his own post! ^^

[milkshake]

I don't like milkshake's comment on me. His further explained definition of "apparent" looks like a coverup. It looks forced.

A coverup? What am I covering up? Don't be silly. I was just asking why Almaster is annoyed by you. (Maybe now I know... -.- )

[milkshake]

I have my reasons, but it's in my interests not to reveal them yet. More Messiah votes please.

Now, I actually agree that Messiah's and CooLDoG's hops on to the bandwagon were a bit scummy (although perhaps I'm biased), but this comment makes me stop to think.

Are you saying you have some information about Messiah that we don't? I might go along with that in another scenario, but this is a mini normal. So I'm skeptical...

[milkshake]

It was a conceptual bandwagon. (It actually was.)

[milkshake]

Hm, I guess our rules didn't include a no-codes/cryptography clause... that could make things interesting...

Well fine. Day 1. Nothing better to do.

vote: Messiah

[milkshake]

I wouldn't mind knowing that either...

Why is everybody attacking Messiah, when CooLDoG did the exact same thing? He asked a question. Sposh started the bw on Messiah, because he did not ask a question, when he did. I hate it when people attack one person for a certain action, when other people do the exact same thing.

I actually agree with this, hiphop, and I think most other people do too, so don't worry. But I'm interested to see what becomes of the Messiah votes, especially with Hoopla whole secret message thing (although I'm starting to guess it just says "I just put this here to make things interesting. Aren't I smart?")

[milkshake]

Vote count is not quite right I believe. My vote is on Messiah at the moment, for example. If you could recheck that that would be great. Thanks.

[milkshake]

unvote, vote: Messiah

. I guess I did forget to unvote...

[milkshake]

if he does have any real info, he should tell us and not encrypt it.

I agree that we might not be getting anywhere unless Hoopla shares her information or (if it is in the town's best interest) makes a concious decision not to share her information.

However, I do not agree with the Hoopla vote. Although her playstyle is unusual it can't really be interpretted as scummy.

[milkshake]

You are hesitant to believe the reason the bw is there and yet you still want it to be around. Isn't this almost contradictory?

Maybe it's almost contradictory... but honestly it's what I'm doing too. I'm losing confidence that Hoopla will have any worthwhile info in her secret little message, but I think that the only way we're going to get anywhere in Day 1 is to pile on to somebody and make something (whatever that something is) happen.

Then we can build real arguments from what happens instead of, well, "finding paragraphs scummy."

[milkshake]

There are plenty of role-based ways information can be generated. Unconfirmed masons and neighbours, and day-cops off the top of my head.

Yay! Information! *begins to dance*

Although, I'm not ready to say if my information is generated from my role.

Oh...

...What about information generated from any old role then?

[milkshake]

He is almost asking for all pro-town power roles to claim.

Yeah... that's it.

[milkshake]

Also does hoopla imply that he/she (too lazy to look...) is a day-time power role. Because if she does have info from his/her role then that would force him/her to be a day-time role.

Maybe this will help you with the rest of your post too...

Although, I'm not ready to say if my information is generated from my role.

[milkshake]

You are doing it too.

Yep... that's what I said. ^^ I am aiming to see whatever Hoopla is up to with regards to Messiah. It should be interesting. Don't you want to see, too?

How do you know you can build real arguments? You don't even know what you are aiming for.

Mmm, because I want to build arguements based on real info instead of (as an example) "He called Peabody innocent!!"

Or we could sit around while people argue over "scummy" wording, and the scum can try to form baseless lynches on townies, while meanwhile the townies are more hesitant to lynch based on nothing...

That's basically my Day 1 philosophy. It only makes sense... "scum slips" barring "Oops, I posted that in the thread but it was supposed to be to my scumbuddy!" are really a myth in my present opinion.

[milkshake]

It would be a pretty unbalanced game if scum could win from an incorrect bandwagon, no?

Yes it would be.

I am seeing absolutely nothing at the moment.

Same here... Hoopla?

[milkshake]

Nope. My join date is just weird (awesome.) )

[milkshake]

if Messia is lynched and he flips town everybody could look at whoever was on his bw, and that might cause people to tv on them. Resulting in more townie lynches. If Messiah flips scum, everybody looks at who did not attack him, resulting in more townie lynches, giving the scum the win.

Yes, these things

could

happen no matter who was lynched... but there's no particular reason that they would.

My philosophy, the same in all my games(look at my wiki), is to pressure anybody and everybody that makes a mistake, since nobody is perfect, and decide which person is scum from that, instead of zoning in on one person. Your way might work that is why I said could result, and not would result.

But what is a "mistake," really? Was charlatan's "almost contradictory" paragraph a mistake? Was my "apparently innocent" thing a mistake?

That's what I'm saying in an above post about scum slips being a myth.

Why does she think you are an alt?

Because I'm just sooo pro she coulden't believe- No, it's actually because I joined in 2006, played 1 game, and then had like a three year hole.

[milkshake]

Voting one person for a couple pages isn't TV. In fact, NOT voting one person for at least a while is what is often considerred scummy. Besides, it isn't even possible to TV based on nothing.

Confirmation Bias or Tunnel Vision is when a player becomes convinced by their own arguments by virtue of how long or how strong they hold them. It is a form of Logical Fallacy, much like Appeal to Probability but applying to the person who makes the argument, not their audience.

So no, I don't "find Hoopla's TV based on nothing scummy."

Jury is still out on that odd secret message and the "information" that got my hopes up so much though...

Also, for

Could is always possible.

Refer back to

Yes, these things could happen no matter who was lynched... but there's no particular reason that they would.

and

You can make that exact same argument for whatever that player flips.

[milkshake]

I am going to claim I have a day-time role.

Day-time roles are interesting (although obviously whether you should claim them or not depends on what they are).

This is the part where you say, "I have a day-time role, and that means..."

[milkshake]

hiphop, while I agree that CooLDoG might be scummy, his post was thus:

So I would see no harm in leting hoopala tell us what info she has, not her role just what info she has.

Basically what he's saying is "I'm not rolefishing!" CooLDoG would avoid "rolefishing" to a fault. (Go buzzwords.)

He's right about one thing though. Hoopla shouldn't just leave us hanging! No one seems to have the guts to hammer, and scum aren't doing it (because they either don't want to lynch their scumbuddy, or don't want to get cought hammering town.)

Basically, if her info says "Messiah is scum" we can lynch him, and then if he's not scum, we can rebound-lynch Hoopla. (And 1 for 1 is great for town... so we can assume that Hoopla would not give false "Messiah is scum" information.)

If it says something more ambiguous (which is likely), we can still take action, or, at the very least, just move on!

[milkshake]

Interesting. So hoopla is claiming a daytime role. I'm going to focus on this, since it has the most information.
So, if we lynch messiah, and he flips town, we know that hoopla is scum. (good for us)
If we lynch messiah, and messiah is scum, then hoopla has a power role or he is scum who is trying to earn our trust. In the end, to me, a messiah lynch seems to be good for us, if for nothing more than info on hoopla.
Are there any flaws with my plan/logic?

Yep, that's precisely what I said, actually... assuming we get something amounting to a guilty verdict on Messiah from Hooplah (which is a fairly big assumption).

We should make sure we actually get something "solid" from Hoopla, first, though. That way we won't be slapped by "Oh... my day time role is I'm a treestump and my encoded post was gibberish. Sorry about that."

[milkshake]

Do not set up for tomorrow, and did you not read post 158?

hiphop, we already discussed post 158... and why on earth wouldn't we set up for tomorrow!

[milkshake]

people will draw conclusions from this bw. Resulting in possible townie lynches.

Hiphop, really. Are you just that scared of your scumbuddy getting lynched? If not, use your brain.

This is the same thing I told you before (as did Hoopla). Obviously, we

want

people to draw conclusions from this bandwagon. Yes there is possibility that the conclusions could be incorrect. However since we are (presumably) not idiots, the conclusions are more

likely

to be correct. All conclusions have a possibility of being wrong. Especially conclusions without data to back them up. But we're trying to get data, and then use it. For example, as you say yourself, if Messiah flips town after we get Hoopla's info (data) we can lynch Hoopla (conclusion.)

You shouldn't discuss tomorrow because the only way you know that you will be around is if you are scum.

Why on earth shouldn't I discuss things I won't be around to see?

Also setting up lynches sets minds so they don't continue to scum hunt as revealed in this game A townie set up lynches, which nobody changed from, resulting in a town loss.

Again, why would you assume total idiocy on the town's part? I don't know what happened in that game, but the idea in this game is that we use our brains and try to determine which lynches will win.

[milkshake]

I have said what I thought, if you can't see it, than there is nothing I can do. If he flips town, you shouldn't just target people on the bw, and if he flips scum, you shouldn't just target the people off the bw.

Hiphop... I don't understand. What you are sayingis perfectly true, but it is completely irrelevant! Look at what me and NAW have said for the actual what-messiah-flips scenarios.

Your first sentence looks like you have made up your mind already, without hoopla's information.

No, but you're (hiphop is) actually starting to make me make this true, because at this point, even without Hoopla's information, I might want to lynch Messiah just because of hiphop's weird reaction to the whole thing... (Hoopla, though, your information is still vital. Are you still intentionally not giving it up?)

The idea is that we don't have any bias.

...Yes... that, and, while being non-biased, we use our non-biased brains and try to determine which lynches will win.

[milkshake]

Look at what you said here. Than look at what she said here.

She only indicated that that was her read (a read I marginally agree with), not that it had factual support.

Besides, the post of hers that you link is before the post of mine that you link...

So you want him lynched, because of me?

Yep, because I have a theory that if he's scum, you are too. (Oh no! I'm

already

drawing conclusions that *gasp* might be wrong! )

I don't want any goddamned hammers until we get info from hoopla.

Hammers aren't so bad. They're informative at least. I guess that given the decision between hammer and no hammer I would still pick no hammer, though. But besides, we haven't had any hammering, and I'm guessing they're not going to start now. Like I said, scum is afraid to hammer, and so is town at the moment.

Mod: could you prod the people who haven't posted in a few days? That would be great.

[milkshake]

Yes (The aforementioned hammers are two-person hammers or one-person pile-on one-person hammer, or whatever. That's part of why they're not much of a concern at the moment.)

[milkshake]

Oh, haha- I see what you are saying. I think the listed people are right, and the number should be four because Sposh unvoted. (I looked at the number and thought that it was five. Grrr.)

[milkshake]

Scummy:
hiphop
milkshake

...So you think me and hiphop have been hardcore bussing eachother? Thats, uh, interesting...

Aannyyway... what happened to Hoopla? I think we could really get somewhere with something more than vague statements and a info-less softclaim. If all of our pleading isn't enough to get her to actually tell us what she's thinking, we could always lynch her and then see if that gets her to talk.

[milkshake]

How's it interesting? Scum bussing each other Day 1 is perfectly plausible.

Just that the nature of our interaction ("Hiphop, I'm dissapointed in you. Don't you have a brain?") ("Blah blah bias blah wagon blah!") doesn't seem very bussing-like. Of course, maybe I'm bussing you right now.

and am now considering the validity of Hoopla's claim in regards to re-applying my vote to you.

One thing is certain: Hoopla certainly has got us quite preoccupied with her supposed info, without actually telling us anything.

Maybe do-something-interesting-and-then-dissapear is a super funky scum tactic? I've said this a million times now, but I'll say it again: Nice, non-ambiguous statement from Hoopla please .

At least Messiah is a fine place for votes even without the Hoopla thing.

[milkshake]

merely a bluff to generate an early wagon

Go figure. I actually had hoped we were getting data. I like data way better than mindless arguing.

a 'well, shrug, you're probably town going by pure probability' attitude

*raises hand* This is me.

At least the wagon did do some useful stuff.

See, I'm confused, because hiphop didn't make any sense when he was trying to explain how, whatever Messiah flipped, the town would lose the game because of it, but I mostly agree with his vote on Peabody, which demonstrates that he actually does have a brain.

I think Messiah and hiphop are scum buddies *shrug*.

[milkshake]

When people make interesting claims on D1, I believe them. If they lie, we can just smack them on D2, so there's really no point. I'm confused as to why more people aren't believing Hoopla.

Hoopla pre-retroactively (new word) unclaimed.

I could go for Peabody... if hiphop and Messiah are scumbuddies, it could mean he was exclusively bussing his scumbuddies. Hiphop, Messiah, CooLDoG, and Peabody scum team. There you go! (If only things really worked like that... all wrapped up in a tight little ball. )

[milkshake]

(I realized CooLDoG probably won't realize why his name is tossed in there (and will get upset about it). It's because he's the only other person Peabody voted in my hypothetic and unlikely Peabody-betrays-all-his-scumbuddies-by-voting-them scenario is CooLDoG. By the way, Peabody never did explain that vote. Nor did he ever unvote. Hm!)

[milkshake]

a strangely amicable debate with HipHop

I'm always amicable. People are too big of jerks these days!

[milkshake]

By the way, if you don't buy my Messiah/hiphop thing (best I got at the moment), I'll be happy to switch to the other half of that. (And vote hiphop)

[milkshake]

Please refer to this post where I did explain my vote on CooLDog AND I unvoted. post 208

Hm. Wow first time I've ever done that. I feel really dumb! See I thought you just forgot to unvote, and it wouldn't count because our mod is picky. I also didn't put forgetting about that past you after all your delaying.

If hiphop flips scum, I'll note this.

You'll note is as bussing? Man, everyone is all about bussing all of a sudden after it was first mentioned!

[milkshake]

"Youll note is as bussing" should be "You'll note it as bussing."

[milkshake]

You should vote where you feel your vote is best served. Offering to switch your vote to the bandwagon I'm on does nothing to make me less suspicious of you. I get the feeling you're trying hard to fly under the radar (down to not really responding to my accusation with anything except the assertion that people are mean these days).

Well my vote isn't serving at all if it's all lonely! But if we lynch messiah, and he flips scum, it's almost like we know hiphop is scum for free (in my opinion.)

The reverse is not true... hence my messiah vote.

[milkshake]

@Milkshake: Do you actually think I'm scum(my)?

Scummy. Yes, a bit.

[milkshake]

Hm, can you explain to me how, in your opinion, Messiah-scum equals hiphop-scum, but and why the opposite is not true? If you feel you've already explained it clearly before, please humor me and summarize it once more.

I did say this before, but I have nothing against saying it again. I think that the apparent motivation and quality of hiphop's argument in defense of Messiah was inconsistant with his arguments pertaining to other players.

---

As to why the reverse isn't true, based upon my assumptions:
1. hiphop town, messiah town: hiphop didn't know, and was just being inconsistant or weird.

I doubt it, but it conceivably fits.

2 (or 1b). hiphop town, messiah scum: The same, obviously.

Again, I sort of doubt it, but it conceivably fits.

3. hiphop scum, messiah town: hiphop knew that messiah was town, and yet decided to defend her just in case the wagon went all the way to a lynch, even though jumping on was low risk because of the Hoopla thing and because many other people were.

Extremely unlikely.

4. (or 3b). hiphop scum, messiah scum: The inverse of 3. hiphop knew that messiah was scum, and knew that his buddy getting lynched day one would mean bad things. He saw that the wagon was just formed by people with nothing to lose, not people who were particularly attached to it, and thus saw an opening for his argument to get people off of it, which was very desirable to him. His (in my opinion inconsistant) behavior is explained, because he knew he should argue, but couldn't easily create an argument with a pro-town motivation.

Fits well.

I admit that the results of this are not exactly what I expected.

If we find that options 1 and 2 are discounted by hiphop flipping scum, it is very, very easy to choose between options 3 and 4, making messiah scum. However, Hiphop flipping town says nothing about Messiah. But Messiah flipping scum makes hiphop scummy, and messiah flipping town makes hiphop townie.

So, if hiphop flips town, we've gained nothing and, obviously, we have lost something. If hiphop flips scum, he almost certainly has, in my opinion, betrayed that Messiah is his scum buddy. If Messiah flips town, we've still lost something, but I've gained the strong opnion that hiphop is also town (by virtue of not being mafia), and if messiah flips scum, hiphop looks scummy (since hiphop/messiah doublescum fits so well).

Sorry to think so noisily in the oh-so-holy mafia thread! But this explains my opinions in a logical fashion. And so this is the best I have got at the moment (I think it is as good as anything anyone else has though.)

---

tl;dr is thus: I don't have a strong town/scum opinion on hiphop, and him flipping town would just be one poor, lynched townie. Him flipping scum would have quite a strong advantage, hence my willingness to vote for him. However, a hiphop lynch would be a big gamble. On the other hand, I have a slight belief that Messiah is scum, and, furthermore, his lynch would give me a good, strong opinion about hiphop. Hence the Messiah vote!

[milkshake]

This is the odds assuming alignment is random. Do you really think the hiphop/Messiah pair has done enough to jump higher than it's pregame 9%? One scum/one town might be a worthwhile bet, but really, looking for scumpairs on the opening day is almost completely useless. Let's just focus on finding one. Fortunately for everyone, hiphop is that someone.

I'm not sure I agree that looking for scumpairs in the first day is useless, because of this: It seems like when dealing with your scumbuddies is when you would have to adjust your natural behavior the most (and I think hiphop adjusted his natural behavior.) When dealing with town, scum can feel free to "scumhunt" using their ordinary tactics. But scumhunting your scumbuddy is very difficult. (Seems like bussers just end up throwing buzzwords at eachother... "OMGUS" and "rolefishing" for Peabody and CooLDoG respectively maybe? )

That said, I'm not 100% attached to hiphop/messiah, because I do think it is based on alot of assumptions (of mine) that aren't necessarily correct.

So, obviously I would be very happy if hiphop flipped scum. I do find his behavior with regards to Messiah kind of scummy (I also note that Messiah is a bit protective of hiphop- although maybe just because she likes him for not being on her wagon). But him flipping town would leave me no more certain about anybody than before. I prefer the Messiah lynch because, odd as this may seem, I feel like there's "insurance" on that lynch.

Maybe I'll hammah. =======[]

[milkshake]

Also milkshake, are you miscounting again? He's at L-2. You can't hammer right now.

Not this time. Hence "maybe I'll hammah..." if he was at L-1 there would be no maybe. It would be: ask for a claim... and then either hammer or don't!

[milkshake]

obsessed

??

I do think he is scummy, but only marginally so. Part of the reaosn I _might_ hammer, but am not voting now, is because I can't trust you guys not to hammer him even if he claims cop or something! The other possible option, of course, is for him to claim now, and then it would be obvious what the proper move is.

[milkshake]

think that milkshake is trying to not fit into the 3rd vote theory. To summarize, I think that he wants to be the hammer and not someone in the middle vote. It has a weird angle to it, but to me it makes sense.
After a lynch goes off, especially if it is a townie, the typical 2 people under most scrutiny is the BW starter and the hammer for obvious reasons, so to "slip" under the radar, scum will try to stay in the middle votes. This method is especially useful on day one when there is so little evidence that having bad/little reasons is not such an unusal thing. He may be trying to avoid this, and when d-2 comes he could say things like "would scum really hammer?", ect...

Well, that would be awefully crafty of me... but then wouldn't my announcing that I'm waiting to hammer kind of defeat that? ^^

Anyway, all I want is for us to not screw this up by making a just plain stupid lynch ("I claim automatically-confirmed-during-night-1 NK-immune townie!" "Ok, I'll lynch you anyway!") or let scum make an innapropriate hammer (they probably wouldn't... but then they know we know they probably wouldn't... and you know what they call that. )

Basically, it would just be plain innapropriate to place the L-1 vote now with no claim (and no "I'm not claiming" or any posts at all from hiphop.)

[milkshake]

@milkshake- I prefer to keep a tradition, and be at L-1 before I claim. Unless I refuse to claim, who would lynch me?

Maneuvering, eh?

unvote, vote: hiphop

Your mind tricks won't-a-work on-a-me.

[milkshake]

In other words: Let's have it. And nobody do anything stupid.

[milkshake]

Hiphop was scum, I'm impressed with us. No kill night one... super lucky doc? Anyway, this might be the easiest game ever. (Too early to tell though).

So, according to my theory, this means Messiah is scum. (Hiphop betrayed him.)

vote: Messiah

Peabody-with-bussing also doesn't seem too ridiculous. I also notice we haven't heard from CoCo or empking in forever, and they weren't voting yesterday. CoCo? Empking? You there?

[milkshake]

Proactive towns need to worry about more than just lynching scum - keeping people active and ensuring we're not left in lylo or later game scenarios with multiple lurkers (or even people incapable of analysing things).

We lynched scum D1, so we're ahead and can afford to do some tidying up. I think Empking is quite an excellent choice in my opinion - he was not on hiphop's lynch which is a good place to start. Coupled with his lack of content, I won't settle for much less.

I think NAW's reaction to this was a big overreaction (with the vote, almost a scummy overreaction). I don't agree with this statement of Hoopla's very much either, though. I wish that not contributing was a scum tell, but unfortunately I don't think it is... not voting when we were lynching scum is a bit scummy, though, so I could see why Empking might be an acceptable lynch.

And I do agree that it is better to lose someone who doesn't contribute than someone who does. But that's a reason to decide between two equally scummy people, not a reason to lynch a player of otherwise uncertain alignment. So can't we do better? Wouldn't it be great if we chain-lynched scum like hiphop instead of hopping to a lurker...? Enter my Messiah vote...

P.S. We

still

haven't heard from CoCo, and he didn't vote yesterday either...

[milkshake]

@milkshake: I asked you a question.

(Warning: snarky comment incoming:) Good for you.

@milkshake: What do you think of the possibility that hiphop was simply trying to play to his town meta(as he mentions in post 219), perhaps going a bit overboard in the process? Why wasn't this included in your possible scenarios in post 292?

Messiah... obviously

you

would take issue with my calling the hiphop-scum/you-town scenario very unlikely in post 292. But I don't know what you're saying in your second question about it "not being included." As for your first question, it isn't clear to me what you are saying... in post 219 hiphop says that "town must derail all bad wagons!" (a substanceless statement)... so you seem to be trying to disagree with my explanation of the hiphop-scum/you-town scenario by suggesting that he was trying to act town by defending a wagon that he knew to be on a town player. The problem:

town

doesn't know who's town, unless they're lynched, and as I said, it was a low-risk wagon, and one that was unlikely to come to fruition at the time...

[milkshake]

Which is where the "playing to his town meta" part comes in.

Which is where what I said comes in... again... 0.o

[milkshake]

So in other words...

you seem to be trying to disagree with my explanation of the hiphop-scum/you-town scenario by suggesting that he was trying to act town by defending a wagon that he knew to be on a town player. The problem:

town

doesn't know who's town, unless they're lynched, and as I said, it was a low-risk wagon, and one that was unlikely to come to fruition at the time...

Yes, he could have been doing this, maybe even thinking he was "playing to his town meta," whatever that means, but it would have been extremely stupid. Stupider than hiphop is/was. He would have had to someone not realize that even though as scum, he knows who is town, the town doesn't know who's town. And I don't think there are many people that dumb!

[milkshake]

"have had to someone not realize" should be "have had to somehow not realize."

I should proofread!

[milkshake]

Messiah's reasons for voting AlmasterGM are solid. I can see how a town player could do all those things, though (even if it doesn't seem very likely.) Messiah = Smart scum?

[milkshake]

@milkshake: Who is your #2 suspect?

I think CooLDoG and Empking are both being a bit ridiculous (especially CooLDoG), but I don't think that makes them scummy. Just ridiculous.

But two things that

are

scummy, even if they have already been talked about, are saying Hoopla "disrailed" (derailed ) the hiphop wagon ("Claim, then hammer. We've dilly-dallied long enough today," etc.) and CooLDoG's vote on Almaster (maybe I don't like that one because of its subtle connection with you, Messiah )

[milkshake]

@milk, you nailed it nice to see that somone has read the topic! I am going to try to get empking to post more of his reasons for voteing me and for hoopla.

Uh, didn't I kind of bash you in the post that you say I "nailed it" with? Well... ok, I'll take it.

I'm still totally serious about Messiah by the way.

He was tossing accusations left and right for thin reasons (except for the Messiah semi-protection), but the fakeclaim outed him pretty thoroughly. As scum, he could be 100% sure that Hoopla was pulling something if Messiah is town and know he'd be proven right sooner or later, which would be reason to jump at Hoopla with a vote before learning more (which he did). This scenario makes the most sense to me, and also contributes to my thinking that Messiah is probably town. Empking's assertion that he contributed to the bandwagon by mostly avoiding it and that Hoopla derailed it by fueling it is not a good thing.

I think this is a huge misrepresentation of the situation. Hiphop's position as I recall was not against Hoopla, but "for Messiah"/against the Messiah wagon. (Nonsense about wagons causing lemming-like play.) I looked back and I can't find him jumping on Hoopla with a vote about the Messiah situation, so I'm not sure what you're thinking here. Overall you are working toward the same thing that Messiah was just saying earlier...

[milkshake]

To distill it all to a single point: Hoopla's Day 1 play magnified hiphop's scummy behavior by a large amount and does not at all seem to me to have been an attempt to derail that bandwagon.

Well that I agree with...

[milkshake]

So torn... vanilla townie claim is lynchable, but I

really

think we should be bandwagoning Messiah.

[milkshake]

We are not lynching Al just because he claimed Vanilla.

Well, OK but actually that's a perfectly legitimate reason.

And why should we be banding mes? just a ???? Will be gone this after noon.

In answer to your "????" as I said right away today, it's the hiphop link (also I can see her play coming from scum- I'm not saying she's a bad player, just could very well be mafia.)

[milkshake]

Milkshake, how is a Vanilla claim reason to lynch someone?

It's a reason to

continue

to lynch someone, certainly. And it's pretty clear why, I'm sure... they're either VT or scum!

@milkshake: State your Messiah case concisely?

I'd rather you go back to the explanations I already wrote... -.- but I'll state it concisely as you ask. Hiphopscum saw a wagon formed on Messiah based on what he saw as dangerous information. Townies were happy to go with the flow, and certainly he would have been happy to go with the flow if Messiah was town, but Messiahscum explains why he wanted to convince people that the information (dangerous to him) was bogus (which, if successfully convinced, would be good for him) and the wagon was not a good idea (he didn't want it to be.)

[milkshake]

CD or Sposh are OK with me, but Sposh only barely. I'd rather Messiah than both of them, as well.

[milkshake]

I certainly wouldn't peg him as likely town, but I don't think CD is very scummy. Remember that even if he annoys you, that doesn't make him scum.

I vote for a deadline

if that's how we should do it

[milkshake]

Much rather do

Messiah!

or Sposh. As I said CD is thirdish.

[milkshake]

Oops, really sorry about the triple post, actually I had said that Sposh was thirdish. Anyway CD, Sposh, etc. are close to eachother around there.

[milkshake]

I don't really like this. We're making progress.

This seems like asking for an excuse to abandon your Messiah tunnel vision later without having to commit, instead blaming it on the deadline.

...What, charlatan, you don't want a deadline? Deadlines are ubiquitously used to make the game go forward. Forget being pro-town, a deadline is pro-game.

As for "abandoning my Messiah tunnel vision without having to commit." First, I think you have a case of the buzzwords. Second, Messiah is the best lynch. CD, maybe Sposh, and quite possibly you are others that are OK but much more random.

[milkshake]

"Tunnel vision" is not a meaningless buzzword when you have pretty much spent the vast majority of today repeating "Messiah's the best lynch because of Hiphop not attacking him" ad nauseum without actually attempting to further your case (or comment on others, really) at all.

I suggest you read my multiple explanations of why I want to do a Messiah lynch. "Tunnel Vision"

is

actually a bad buzzword when it is used to say: "Because you are sticking to your argument I am going to say it is wrong," which doesn't make any sense.

I greatly prefer my reasons for wanting to do a Messiah lynch over "He's a bad player I hate him let's lynch him," which is unfortunately what I see people doing constantly not just in this game but everywhere on this site.

A deadline is fine but irrelevant. The game is moving forward. We are placing votes and have not dead-ended discussion. I'm asserting a hypothetical situation in which you stick to your lonely Messiah vote until a deadline and then jump on a convenient wagon with a "welp, since we're at the deadline, I'll get on X bandwagon".

I agree this game is moving forward, albeit only just. As to your asserted situation, I agree that that situation would be suboptimal but I doubt it would happen, and I can promise it wouldn't happen exactly like that in my case. A deadline would be a good two weeks from when it was established, anyway.

[milkshake]

I'm saying it hasn't been made

I'm afraid I'll simply have to direct your attension to the multiple times that I have explained why Messiah is extremely likely scum. It's a pretty simple "case" but, really, that's a virtue. Sorry you don't like my play today, but I believe that your opinion there is much more rooted in your disagreement with my Messiah case than anything else at all.

If Hoopla had attempted to run up that bandwagon on another random player, do you think Hiphop would have behaved differently?

Clearly, my answer to this is an overwhelming yes (and, yes, I know yours is no.)

That's more interesting. Can you give some examples of votes in this game that have been made on the basis of "hating" someone?

Yes, I can. I'm referring to the hugely overstated "cases" in which people accuse eachother of logical fallacies, throw buzzwords at eachother, and call eachother scummy when in reality it has nothing to do with scumminess or lack thereof. Examples of arguments getting out of hand include post 435, 449, and a great deal of the Almaster/Sposh exchange (especially from that point on).

Examples of silly accusations of WIFOM, rolefishing, etc. include many posts by CooLDoG... but let's just say that I would be happy if I never saw people using words and phrases like WIFOM, Tunnel Vision, rolefishing, blah blah blah, again. Not that I have problems with the underlying concepts in most cases, but people would gain so much from actually typing out the reason why what someone is doing means that they are part of the informed minority trying to get the town killed!

[milkshake]

I really don't understand your conviction that voting for a deadline as the mod said we could is scummy. Honestly, even just from the perspective of us being part of the same game, that's low and unhelpful. The rest of your comments are better than that...

Do you honestly believe I haven't read those posts, or are you just being condescending? It's one or the other.

Probably both. You haven't told me what you think about them, at least. And this is already getting awfully close to being personal. Why must people always do that on this website! Arg.

Your tunnel vision apparent desire to focus only on Messiah is detrimental to the town in that there are more players than you and Messiah in the game, and holding a vote somewhere where a lynch is unlikely to happen is, at best, throwing away your vote. It is almost non-participatory to largely ignore other cases in the game. Furthermore, it is a fine scum tactic to manufacture a strong but unpopular conviction that one player is scum in order to avoid the suspicion of participating in townie bandwagons while giving the appearance of doing otherwise.

I have given my opinion on other bandwagons. Furthermore, I just made a nice little post about how the Sposh/AlMaster thing is not based on scummyness at all, which should be interpretted as a big thumbs down on those wagons.

CooLDoG I think is a bit scummy. As he admit himself, he is overly concerned with doing the most "towny" thing at any given moment as a scum (with a particular play style) would be. No, I'm not saying that just because he admits it himself, but, yes, I do acknowledge that no claim to that effect can be uninfluenced by the self-admission.

You're doing nothing to sway anyone, which is not what I expect to see from a townie who actually truly believes that they know who to lynch.

So basically, obviously you're right that my vote has been sitting on Messiah. Heck, it's technically been sitting there almost since

the very beginning of day one!

But that's not a bad thing. Messiah is scum because of the informed hiphop's telling reaction to her. I'm not a cop, I don't have a guilty investigation, I can't be sure about it. But I would like everyone to get off their severely ungrounded wagons on Sposh and AlMaster, and hop on Messiah's, Empking's, or CooLDoG's.

The think with empking is this (this happened today, by the way, Charlatan, and involved me...)

4. Do you deny that Hoopla mislead the town in her softclaim?
5. Do you deny that Hoopla mislead the town, derailing the wagon on scum?
6. do you think its a leap to say: Hoopla mislead the town in orsder to derail the wagon on scum?

Remember that? Remember how strange it was?

And CooLDoG's I already talked about in this post...

And Messiah's, well, we can even look all the way back to day one for that one, to a theory of mine that I'm still forwarding, as conceded as it may be to do so...

1. hiphop town, messiah town: hiphop didn't know, and was just being inconsistant or weird.

I doubt it, but it conceivably fits.

2 (or 1b). hiphop town, messiah scum: The same, obviously.

Again, I sort of doubt it, but it conceivably fits.

3. hiphop scum, messiah town: hiphop knew that messiah was town, and yet decided to defend her just in case the wagon went all the way to a lynch, even though jumping on was low risk because of the Hoopla thing and because many other people were.

Extremely unlikely.

4. (or 3b). hiphop scum, messiah scum: The inverse of 3. hiphop knew that messiah was scum, and knew that his buddy getting lynched day one would mean bad things. He saw that the wagon was just formed by people with nothing to lose, not people who were particularly attached to it, and thus saw an opening for his argument to get people off of it, which was very desirable to him. His (in my opinion inconsistant) behavior is explained, because he knew he should argue, but couldn't easily create an argument with a pro-town motivation.

Fits well.

[milkshake]

Hah,

conceited

not conceded. Also on the note of conceitedness, I should note that the condescending thing (while possibly true... condescending happens alot on message boards) was the part that I was talking about at "And this is already getting awfully close to being personal. Why must people always do that on this website! Arg."

Seriously it's true though. You definitely don't qualify, Charlatan, but people are such jerks to eachother here sometimes!

[milkshake]

I never said voting for a deadline is scummy. That would be absurd.

Then we agree! -.-

You say "extremely unlikely", I say "extremely likely." Staying off of the easy bandwagon that was based largely on what he would have known was a lie from Hoopla was an easy, easy way to get townie points.

Right, that would be the other side of the issue. But in order for that to start to make sense, he would have had to think that the wagon was going all the way to a lynch, which I at least saw pretty clearly it wasn't. Also, even if it did go all the way to a lynch, hopping on a bandwagon, townie or not, that's based on claimed role information isn't scummy at all even if it lynches a town player, since you get free scum from the person with the claimed role information (Hoopla) and a 1-for-1 townie/scum trade is great.

[milkshake]

Hm, so you're arguing that hiphop knew that Messiah was gambitting, instead thinking she had true role information on scum, or had false role information on town. I guess I'm starting to see how him thinking any of those three could be the case, although it is weird how they all are supposed to explain the same behavior.

Also, even if it did go all the way to a lynch, hopping on a bandwagon, townie or not, that's based on claimed role information isn't scummy at all even if it lynches a town player, since you get free scum from the person with the claimed role information (Hoopla) and a 1-for-1 townie/scum trade is great.

That's pretty simplistic. What if the wagon had gone to lynch without Hoopla revealing her gambit? What if she were as sure as you are that Messiah was scum and decided to roll the dice? What if, what if?

Well wait, this is not explained by your what ifs, it is also explained by your argument that hiphop knew Hoopla was gambitting. And even if he did, that certainly doesn't clear Messiah! You're not saying it does, are you? It just brings her back to the neutral territory (and the possibility of him not know slides her slightly toward scummy territory again. I guess maybe could have partially thought, like most of us did, that Hoopla might be gambitting, and simply decided to act on that, while at the same time thinking about what would happen if she was legit. That's the most likely.)

Still happy with Messiah, Empking, or CD here.

[milkshake]

"instead thinking" should be "instead of thinking."

[milkshake]

Well, you can rest assured that even though I still believe Messiah is nontrivially more than 25% likely to be scum, I am perfectly happy with other "avenues" as well. To recap, Between Empking and CooLDoG, I'd go for Empking at the moment. Actually I think Peabody might be mafia, too (as I mentioned on day 1, and am just now realizing again). This is just a feeling based on his extremely measured play, not something based on fact.

I think he thought the same thing more than one of us did, which is that she didn't have any information at all and that, in time, it would become public knowledge, and that he could use that to his advantage. For most of us, whether Hoopla was lying or not was an educated guess. For hiphop, it would've been obvious.

Fair enough.

[milkshake]

I think the best lynch for today is Messiah.

Then vote her, invite all your freinds, and vote her again. Geez!

[milkshake]

@HowardRock, your point that hiphop and Sposh were connected in Day 1 isn't bad. But I really don't think scum would betray their buddies like that. I mean, how stupid do you think hiphop is? That's the only OK reason to vote Sposh, though. AlMaster's vote seems to be based on the fact that they're arguing, and Messiah just mentioned both the hiphop/Sposh connection and decided to criticize some random posts too. (Covering all her bases, I guess. "Cases" are scummy. What a scummy player. )

[milkshake]

Badger badger badger badger badger badger badger badger (mushroom mushroom!)

[milkshake]

Condensed: Why would hiphop (scum) ever attack a softclaim-led wagon on town?

Such a wagon could only be good for scum. If it went to the lynch, people would want to lynch you, so more hypothetical town lynching. A scum's dream! If it didn't go to the lynch no harm done.

Actually writing this did just make me think of another possibility in which hiphop sees his scumbuddy creating a wagon on a town player and wants to minimize and/or distance himself from the repercussions. O_O

But I've been basically assuming You/Hooplatown. I'm surprised no one (example: charlatan, etc.) pointed that out, but it most likely isn't a very dangerous assumption. Also, since the original incident I have noticed (with admittedly biased eyes) that Messiah's posting seems a bit laborious. Going through the motions to remain towny, if you know what I mean.

[milkshake]

It wouldn't have to be prearranged although I admit scum would probably consult with their buddies before doing your gambit thing.

With regards to hiphop trying to gain town cred, obviously that's wifom, too, but people have brought it up on many occasions. In fact so many times that I'm starting to believe them. But I stick with what I've responded with many times: it was a wagon based on a softclaim, no one would have thought less of hiphop for being on it. They would have thought less of the softclaimer (you.)

With regards to Empking and hiphop, as I said when talking with charlatan I agree that this:

4. Do you deny that Hoopla mislead the town in her softclaim?
5. Do you deny that Hoopla mislead the town, derailing the wagon on scum?
6. do you think its a leap to say: Hoopla mislead the town in orsder to derail the wagon on scum?

And the other stuff he said about your softclaim being meant to derail a hiphop wagon is super super strange. (As has been said: It is strange because, among other things, your softclaim ultimately led to a hiphop lynch and the hiphop wagon was not very strong at the time at all.) However, despite the strangeness (illogicality?), I don't see how arguing it would help scum. That said, I'm not totally against the Empking wagon, and I might add my vote to it soon if I don't see people suddenly swayed by my Messiah argument.

[milkshake]

He was confused by mod post 567.

[milkshake]

Empking is no where near as good as Messiah, but as I promised,

unvote, vote: empking

.

Claim time!

[milkshake]

I compromised switched to empking. I say let's do it. We can do Sposh tomorow if need be. Or actually maybe Hoopla, she's making me nervous the way she's positioning herself to be queen of the town.

[milkshake]

Wow great, I just searched the whole thread and I couldn't find any reason Empking would know that the name of the VT role

before

the de-theme-ing was "Passive Astronaut." Of course, the whole reason the game wasn't supposed to be themed is so that this kind of flavor thing wouldn't happen.

unvote

and please please please tell me ASAP if I'm missing something.

[milkshake]

Personally I just thought Almaster's post was happily hammering a VT claim (as one should), but yes "plain old vanilla ice cream" came from a very guilty fellow.

I'm neutral on Sposh- he

was

the first on hiphop's wagon. I agree with Hoopla that looker/NAW has a decent chance of being scum. Not on the scum wagon, early posts and hiphop interaction I can definitely see as coming from a scumteam member. Just reads, nothing earth-shattering, but a good choice.

vote: looker

This is a better choice than Sposh or CD. All aboard.

[milkshake]

*looks around*

*waits expectantly*

[milkshake]

You mean other than you and hiphop?

[milkshake]

Aw, Peabody, how

towny

of you.

Heh, that's similar to what I was thinking while reading his post.

Really? Becuase

I

was thinking "Cool, now I know that Messiah and Peabody are the remaining scum." ( <3 )

@Milkshake: So you're saying both Empking and CoolDog are town?

That's certainly possible. CooLDoG might be scum, though.

[milkshake]

Well Looker isn't a vanilla townie, that's for certain.

Peabody I'm pretty sure is scum.

[milkshake]

Or Looker got her role pm after the de-flavoring of the thread. Let's not rule that out

But of course, this would all be fishing and I'm not one for fishing...

That's possible, I guess.

Oh, I'm sorry were we "OHNO ROLEFISHING RUN FOR THE HIL:LSS!!11!" ? My bad. xP

[milkshake]

Honestly I, too, would be OK with voting Looker, but don't exactly want to hammer, which makes three of us. I'd ask for a claim, but looker has practically claimed VT, hasn't he?

Post 709 is a good point.

[milkshake]

Grr, simulpost point-syphoning.

[milkshake]

Correct, according to the de-theming PM, my role name was switched to simply "town." And the mafia it discusses are no longer space crazed.

[milkshake]

Note: Replacements did not receive the original role titles, nor were they informed about them.

When I replaced into this game my role PM included the flavored and standard role name.

Hm. I guess this means we should be lynching HowardRoark? I'm suprised scum would just up and lie like that, though.

[milkshake]

I don't understand... is there something ambiguous or deceptive about this statement?

Note: Replacements did not receive the original role titles, nor were they informed about them.

I'm not excited about making a scum find on such a technicality-type thing, but...

[milkshake]

Yeah

vote: HowardRoark

[milkshake]

Have been "partying" pretty consistently over the holiday. I'm back now.

We decided Looker never recieved the original PM, right? So this statement...

- I received no reference of "space crazed" anything. Did anyone else?

Reflects that. Although I don't know why he would think other people (non-replacements) wouldn't have seen it. 0.o Silly oversight?

Have I said this before?: I feel that either Messiah or Peabody are our remaining scum. Yes, I've been all about lynching Messiah since, well, Day 1. But I'd be willing to vote either. I've learned my lesson about support for a Messiah wagon, though.

vote: Peabody

and it's claim time.

[milkshake]

No, we never "decided" anything. Looker claimed to have a conversation with the mod that was never confirmed in any way, then went on about how scum were supplied with fake claims. I guess the assumption that she would like us to make is that a replacement would not have received the initial flavor as a part of their fake claim, even though not knowing the initial flavor would out them as scum instead of confirm them as town. Am I really the only one for whom this is a problem? And why are you comfortable dismissing it as a "silly oversight"? Do you do that with other scummy behaviors too?

That's not exactly what I was dismissing as a silly oversight, I was dismissing the space crazed comment that he made even though he professedly didn't get any flavor.

To answer your rhetorical question, you are not the only one for whom this is a problem. But Looker, Peabody, and Messiah can't all be scum. In fact, only one of them can probably

[milkshake]

I should be prohibited from having an alt for the simple reason that I can't keep it straight who I'm logged in as.

I agree with Charlatan about Looker, actually. Refer to my original problem of there not being enough scum, though. Maybe Messiah is town after all and Peabody and Looker are left? Or Messiah and Looker. Still guessing Messiah and Peabody though to be honest.

Why do you think we only have a two person scum team?

Uhm, I don't obviously. For a moment I was confused about whether we had lynched two scum or one (I think the CooLDoG thing confused me).

[milkshake]

Doc might even be able to clear a couple people maybe. (Possible, although unlikely... but in that scenario we would have the mafia identified 100%). Important note though, if we're going to "organize a lynch as normal," don't get it up to L-1, because mafia could profit from a wayward hammer, I believe?

So if that's the case, how are we going to procede with organizing a lynch as normal.

I really like my opinion that Messiah and Peabody are scum. Unfortunately with so little hard information at my disposal (lots of soft information) Hooplah, charlatan, AGM could all be scum concievably. I just like Messiah and Peabody.

[milkshake]

I think we're capable of talking out who we'd most like to see lynched.

Well, duh.

Alternate account fail.

Ya sorry. ><

Remember that the doc has saved twice now, so there's a chance they have two confirmed, but probably not.

Like you said, almost definitely not since they haven't claimed yet.

Also it is concievable that there's something other than a plain doctor going on.

[milkshake]

AlmasterGM/Peabody - On first thought this seems like the least likely of the three, mainly because Almaster has been calling Peabody scum for the entirety of the game. However, I certainly won't rule out distancing, especially in light of the fact that Almaster never really put any kind of pressure on Peabody at all.

Peabody/charlatan - I can't think of anything that makes this one particularly more or less likely than the other two, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me.

charlatan/AlmasterGM - This is my current pick for most likely remaining scum. For one, AlmasterGM is almost certainly the scummiest living player. Aside from that, though, is that this scum team would explain the one thing that stands out to me the most about charlatan's play this game, which is the way he switched wagons from Almaster to CooLDoG.

Hm, this would make alot of sense for you to say this if you are scum with peabody.

[milkshake]

I guess I'd support a massclaim, but I think that's mostly just because I can't believe we don't have any town PR-generated information by now. But the absense of any claimed PR-generated information indicates its nonexistance. I just have a hard time believing that that's the case!

[milkshake]

((Darn it. Darn it. Darn it. I've made SO MANY alt-fail posts! ><))


Oh, sure, NOW you agree that Messiah is scum.

I better remind everyone of my whole spiel about how hiphop demonstrated that Messiah was scum. Consider yourself reminded. ^^

By the way, only 2 mafia, and 10 town with a doctor. You say that's a normal set up, but doesn't it seem kind of town-slanted?

[milkshake]

I've been pondering the reason why I haven't been nightkilled so far, because I feel like I've been quite pro-town - and my theory is because I'd almost entirely wrote off Messiah from my list of candidates. It sounds wifomy, but I think him keeping me alive was his away to subliminally exert his influence if he knew I'd continue organising lynches and being wrong.

Another great tell I picked up is his extremely detailed case about Sposh that everyone seems to have forgotten about. Then he chose to nightkill him off. This is a scum tactic I've seen used before, because it effectively cleans your 'suspicion slate' and gives you an excuse to go somewhere else the next day without getting blood on your hands from a mislynch.

Good points. Personally I'm still convinced by my original argument though. ^^ But, anyway, it's alot of arguments against Messiah. And actually based on fact! This game makes me happy.

3:9 with just a doctor is RIDICULOUS and not even worth considering. Lobstermania may be a new mod, but he isn't an idiot.

Bonus link! A great MD thread talking about 2:10 games and stats.

At the risk of starting too much of a side conversation, doesn't this thread actually say 3:9 is more towny than 2:10?

[milkshake]

Oh, so 3/9 is with plenty of PRs. Got it.

[milkshake]

vote: Messiah

Rah, rah, shish-koom bah.

[milkshake]

Lynch him now?

Not just now

. I don't want to lynch yet though, because I still have a few more thoughts about this game (and I need to answer charlatan).

[milkshake]

I TOLD YOU PEABODY WAS SCUM.

I agreeeeed.

Curses at the 3-man scum team and further curses at charlatan for being scum and at Messiah for being town.

I'm afraid charlatan is right, if it was me, him, and Messiah I would have definitely voted Messiah if there was no new information. Bah!

Good game, even with its definite rocky spots.

PS I knew Hooplah was the doc.