When should the cop come forward?

Yosarian2 · Post Post #24 (isolation #0) » Wed Oct 07, 2009 9:22 am

It's also worth remembering that if town ever gets to the point when more then 50% of the town is confirmed innocent, then if there's only 1 scum kill a night, town should always win (unless something stupid happens).

So, if there's 12 people left alive, there are 3 known masons, and you are a cop with 2 confirmed innocents, then claim. With 1 claimed cop in the open (soon to be night-killed most likely), 2 cop-cleared innocents, and 3 masons, that's half the town confirmed innocent; all town has to do is to lynch one person in the pool of "unconfirmeds" every day, and town wins.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #29 (isolation #1) » Thu Oct 08, 2009 9:44 am

Mr. Flay wrote:
Yosarian2 wrote:So, if there's 12 people left alive, there are 3 known masons, and you are a cop with 2 confirmed innocents, then claim.
Has anyone put a 3-man Confirmed Mason group in a game in 4 years, though?

Sure, 3 man mason groups are pretty common in large games. .

Of course, there's other ways to get confirmed innocents (or mostly confirmed innocents) as well. Also, if there's a town vig, that can help as well, since it means the town can go through the pool of unconfirmeds faster.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #30 (isolation #2) » Thu Oct 08, 2009 9:46 am

mykonian wrote:
Yosarian2 wrote:It's also worth remembering that if town ever gets to the point when more then 50% of the town is confirmed innocent, then if there's only 1 scum kill a night, town should always win (unless something stupid happens).

So, if there's 12 people left alive, there are 3 known masons, and you are a cop with 2 confirmed innocents, then claim. With 1 claimed cop in the open (soon to be night-killed most likely), 2 cop-cleared innocents, and 3 masons, that's half the town confirmed innocent; all town has to do is to lynch one person in the pool of "unconfirmeds" every day, and town wins.
this is if you have no risk at being killed. When that comes in to play, you are also happy with an increased chance, since waiting for the sure win is a bigger gamble. So ideally, you claim before this situation, to avoid being killed before you can claim.

Well, I'm saying you should *always* claim if it means the town is then going to have +50% of the people in the game as confirmed innocents (if there's only one killing scum group, at least). If not, then there are still times you might want to, it's situational obviously.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #33 (isolation #3) » Thu Oct 08, 2009 5:13 pm

Zorblag wrote:Yosarian2 actually needs 1 more confirmed town (to get to the more than half him said were needed) for that example to work with 12 players (5 straight mislynches still be possible and loses for the town) but otherwise the idea be right.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

And yes, you are right. You actually need more then 50% confirmed town to have an autowin, so 6 town out of 11 here.

It happens more often later in the game; it's not unusual to end up with 4 confirmed town out of 7 after a cop claim, or something like that.