When should the cop come forward?

This forum is for discussion related to the game.
fadeblue
fadeblue
Watcher
fadeblue
Watcher
Watcher
Posts: 0
Joined: April 7, 2005

When should the cop come forward?

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:36 am

Post by fadeblue »

I was cop in a large game at MTGS. A discussion came up (Day 5, I think) about whether the cop should reveal himself or not and clear some townies (assuming the cop was still alive). We weren't sure if the doc was still alive, either, since roles weren't revealed upon death.

If the cop (assume sane) hasn't found any scum, at what point is it worth it to come forward as the cop? How many living townies must the cop be able to clear? Should I have come forward even if I could only have cleared 2 people (with 16 still alive)?
User avatar
SpeedyKQ
SpeedyKQ
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
SpeedyKQ
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1103
Joined: September 1, 2004
Location: Massachusetts

Post Post #1 (ISO) » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:51 am

Post by SpeedyKQ »

Depends on how close to the endgame you are, and how likely you think you are to receive doc protection. To be on day 5 and only know 2 alignments, you must have had a lot of people die after you investigated them?

To clear only 2 out of 16 I wouldn't have come forward, except maybe to save an innocent from lynch.
[size=75]Mafia is hard.[/size]
fadeblue
fadeblue
Watcher
fadeblue
Watcher
Watcher
Posts: 0
Joined: April 7, 2005

Post Post #2 (ISO) » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:10 am

Post by fadeblue »

At that point, I had only had 4 results. One had died, the other two townies were alive, and the fourth was a blocked result (but that person was outed as a scum during the day anyway). So I only had two living results. I thought about coming forward because my two live targets were at one point attacking each other, and it might have helped to settle the matter. But then there was a mod-related incident that resulted in one of the two withdrawing from the game, leaving me with only one live result. I decided not to come forward, and I got killed during the night.

But anyway, that's all beside the point. I feel the same way you do, that 2 out of 16 doesn't seem to be enough, especially if those two aren't in danger of being lynched soon.

With some extra information, though, I realize I probably should've come forward. In terms of it being the endgame, we figured there were about 4 mafia left out of 16 players. We already knew 1 (he was outed and had given up), so he was the definite lynch for that day. We also had two other confirmed townies by their roles, so that leaves 3 out of 13 people for the remaining scum. I suppose if I had come forward and cleared two people plus myself, that would have given us 3 out of 10. That's actually not so bad, I guess.
User avatar
mith
mith
Godfather
User avatar
User avatar
mith
Godfather
Godfather
Posts: 9267
Joined: March 27, 2002
Location: McKinney, TX
Contact:

Post Post #3 (ISO) » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:21 am

Post by mith »

Even with that extra info: no. 2 innocent results are not worth coming out over that early in the game unless you are sure the scum are on to you. Better EV waiting. Not that I've run numbers on it, but that's the intuition.
User avatar
Axelrod
Axelrod
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Axelrod
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1453
Joined: February 25, 2005

Post Post #4 (ISO) » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:47 pm

Post by Axelrod »

Well, it would have helped me, :wink: .
User avatar
Puzzle
Puzzle
Has a Cunning Plan
User avatar
User avatar
Puzzle
Has a Cunning Plan
Has a Cunning Plan
Posts: 885
Joined: March 11, 2005
Location: UK

Post Post #5 (ISO) » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:11 am

Post by Puzzle »

You people lack faith in me anyway... :P
For now, I'll ask Thoth to come up with reasons why I should be voting for him, and I'd like him to respond to those.
Commodore Amazing
User avatar
Stewie
Stewie
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Stewie
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2567
Joined: July 16, 2003
Location: Canada
Contact:

Post Post #6 (ISO) » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:44 am

Post by Stewie »

You did the right thing, and got unlucky. In a different situation, maybe it would have been the right thing to do.
fadeblue
fadeblue
Watcher
fadeblue
Watcher
Watcher
Posts: 0
Joined: April 7, 2005

Post Post #7 (ISO) » Mon Jul 25, 2005 10:37 am

Post by fadeblue »

So is there a general rule of thumb that should be followed? Say, if you can clear 1/3 of the remaining people? 1/4? Or should you keep hoping that you won't be killed so you can get another investigation?
User avatar
mith
mith
Godfather
User avatar
User avatar
mith
Godfather
Godfather
Posts: 9267
Joined: March 27, 2002
Location: McKinney, TX
Contact:

Post Post #8 (ISO) » Mon Jul 25, 2005 11:05 am

Post by mith »

I've been meaning to run numbers on this for a while now. I'll get around to it eventually, I'm sure.

It is, of course, very dependent on how likely you (and your confirmed innocents) are to be killed before you come out. I'd guess 1/3 (counting yourself) if you haven't found any scum, though. We'll see. :)
User avatar
Stewie
Stewie
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Stewie
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2567
Joined: July 16, 2003
Location: Canada
Contact:

Post Post #9 (ISO) » Mon Jul 25, 2005 5:34 pm

Post by Stewie »

I'd say if it leaves you with a 50% or better chance of catching scum.
User avatar
Puzzle
Puzzle
Has a Cunning Plan
User avatar
User avatar
Puzzle
Has a Cunning Plan
Has a Cunning Plan
Posts: 885
Joined: March 11, 2005
Location: UK

Post Post #10 (ISO) » Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:30 pm

Post by Puzzle »

I'd say it also depends, among other things, on the repartition of killing powers (presence of a vigilante may be important).


Raaaahhh, gimme a gun !
For now, I'll ask Thoth to come up with reasons why I should be voting for him, and I'd like him to respond to those.
Commodore Amazing
fadeblue
fadeblue
Watcher
fadeblue
Watcher
Watcher
Posts: 0
Joined: April 7, 2005

Post Post #11 (ISO) » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:48 am

Post by fadeblue »

Well, of course it depends on a number of things, but I was hoping to get somewhat of a "baseline" figure, assuming a normal game (randomly lynching "non-confirmed" people, nightkilling "confirmed" people starting with the cop). I think mith has the same idea in mind. This would give you a general idea of when it's worth it to come forward, and then you can adjust it accordingly to your circumstances.
User avatar
Dasquian
Dasquian
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Dasquian
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1430
Joined: November 3, 2003
Location: Guildford, UK

Post Post #12 (ISO) » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:23 pm

Post by Dasquian »

It really depends on how many people are left, how many lynches you can afford to get wrong, how many mafia are left, whether you think you've investigated the SK, whether the doctor is alive/outed, etc.

There is no real baseline figure, but an arbitrary rule of thumb might be to wait till at least Day 2, preferably Day 3 if you can manage it. By that time you've hopefully got a couple of investigated suspects who are still alive, and you're down to about 8-12 people and your results make a difference. So I'd roughly use the following ideas:

- Come forward if you're about to be lynched (duh)
- Come forward if the town can't afford to make a mistake
- Come forward if you can significantly reduce the list of possible mafia (eg by knowing 2 out of the 4 remaining suspects are innocent)
- Come forward if there's only a couple of mafia left and you've investigated one
- Come forward if you have more than 2 guilty results (see next)
- Don't come forward unless you are satisfied with your own sanity

Remembering of course that someone else claiming cop can usually be counted as an extra guilty result ;)
[size=84]QUACK[/size]
User avatar
MightyFireball
MightyFireball
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
MightyFireball
Goon
Goon
Posts: 537
Joined: November 12, 2006
Location: Trying to Make Peace

Post Post #13 (ISO) » Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:23 pm

Post by MightyFireball »

Would it ever be worth coming out even if you weren't satisfied with your own sanity, say if you had a guilty result on one of two remaining scum or something like that?
[color=orange][b] MIGHTYFIREBALL [/b][/color]
[color=green][i]An optimist believes that the world is as good as it can be Unfortunately, a pessimest believes the same thing; War is not the answer[/i][/color]
User avatar
Cobalt
Cobalt
trollface.jpg
User avatar
User avatar
Cobalt
trollface.jpg
trollface.jpg
Posts: 2641
Joined: July 5, 2009
Location: PA PA PINGAS

Post Post #14 (ISO) » Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:28 pm

Post by Cobalt »

4 YEAR BUMP
OUTSTANDING
hatersgonnahate.gif
User avatar
MightyFireball
MightyFireball
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
MightyFireball
Goon
Goon
Posts: 537
Joined: November 12, 2006
Location: Trying to Make Peace

Post Post #15 (ISO) » Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:33 pm

Post by MightyFireball »

Yep! I'm going for a record, actually.
[color=orange][b] MIGHTYFIREBALL [/b][/color]
[color=green][i]An optimist believes that the world is as good as it can be Unfortunately, a pessimest believes the same thing; War is not the answer[/i][/color]
User avatar
MonkeyMan576
MonkeyMan576
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
MonkeyMan576
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7900
Joined: November 7, 2008
Location: Colorado Springs, CO

Post Post #16 (ISO) » Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:50 pm

Post by MonkeyMan576 »

The cop should come forward if the information you have will significantly improve the towns chances of winning in relation to you being NKd.
User avatar
ortolan
ortolan
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
ortolan
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4158
Joined: October 27, 2008

Post Post #17 (ISO) » Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:56 pm

Post by ortolan »

this bump comes from a relatively obscure vintage- planted in 2005 it only garnered a few replies on its initial run. Bouquet suggests a promising, if oft discussed topic. In the mouth one, however, one gets initial notes of poor pretext for bumping thread with a cloying lack of humour on the mid-palate and an overall superfluous mouth-feel. Aftertaste is bitter and suggests grapes were slightly underripe and immature.
Last edited by ortolan on Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529

Feel free to PM me to be ready in case I need a replacement.
User avatar
Elmo
Elmo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Elmo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 3047
Joined: September 7, 2007
Location: happy

Post Post #18 (ISO) » Tue Oct 06, 2009 3:56 pm

Post by Elmo »

Ever? Yes.

This pretty much always depends on specifics. Dasquian's post is about as you're going to get in general, not least because (amongst other things) it doesn't say "never come forward unless you are satisfied with your own sanity".

(Is this a serious bump, or am I being toyed with mercilessly?)
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford
User avatar
YamiJoey
YamiJoey
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
YamiJoey
Goon
Goon
Posts: 177
Joined: August 11, 2009
Location: Bury, Manchester, England
Contact:

Post Post #19 (ISO) » Tue Oct 06, 2009 8:19 pm

Post by YamiJoey »

It depends on the size of the game, what's going on and other major factors. The site I'm on people just go "I'm cop. I found Player A and B as Town, then C as Scum. Kill him." then die that night because Doc's don't EVER seem to do their job. (We must've had two-kills stopped in about thirty-games.) But recently a guy hit some Town, and two Scum, never came forward and survived until the endgame after getting both lynched.

IMO Cop should come forward if they think there's a point to it. If they've gotten multiple results and not all Guilty or all innocent (because you'd be thick to assume you were that lucky, and thick to simply come forward on all Town unless pushed into a corner) then they're in a position to give something to the thread. From then on, it's up to that player entirely on how pressured they are, how likely they think they are to get hit, and how appropriate they feel it is to come forward.

Necropost is loved by me. <3

YJ
Show
i l o v e s e c r e t a g e n t s

Mafia/1-0
Town/0-0
Third/0-0

[b]V/LA on weekends a lot. Soz beefz.[/b]
User avatar
mykonian
mykonian
Frisian Shoulder-Demon
User avatar
User avatar
mykonian
Frisian Shoulder-Demon
Frisian Shoulder-Demon
Posts: 11963
Joined: August 27, 2008

Post Post #20 (ISO) » Wed Oct 07, 2009 12:33 am

Post by mykonian »

agree with some posts here, but something else too: If you claim in lylo, you are too late.
Surrender, imagine and of course wear something nice.
User avatar
Oman
Oman
NK Immune Miller Vig
User avatar
User avatar
Oman
NK Immune Miller Vig
NK Immune Miller Vig
Posts: 7014
Joined: June 19, 2007

Post Post #21 (ISO) » Wed Oct 07, 2009 1:35 am

Post by Oman »

mmm hmm, a day before Lylo is os much preferable to Lylo
It's unfortunate that good oral sex excuses bad chemistry. - Korts
User avatar
mathcam
mathcam
Captain Observant
User avatar
User avatar
mathcam
Captain Observant
Captain Observant
Posts: 6116
Joined: November 22, 2002

Post Post #22 (ISO) » Wed Oct 07, 2009 3:38 am

Post by mathcam »

I love these really old necro threads...get to remember all the people that used to be on the site.

I think the answer to the original question is probably pretty complicated, but my general rule of thumb would be to compare probable days left in the game to the number of people you can out. In a 25-person game with one scum group, even if I could verify 5 townies for free on day one, I think it would be a bad call. You'd run out of verified townies well before the end of the game. But again, this is just an intuitive reflex -- depending on the level of sophistication of the model, I don't think it would be too hard to get exact numbers in a vanilla cop+mafia+townies game.

Cam
User avatar
YamiJoey
YamiJoey
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
YamiJoey
Goon
Goon
Posts: 177
Joined: August 11, 2009
Location: Bury, Manchester, England
Contact:

Post Post #23 (ISO) » Wed Oct 07, 2009 4:14 am

Post by YamiJoey »

It also depends if you're a rolecop. If you are and you're getting vanillas, then outing them as suspects, but obvously not revealing they're vanilla, would be highly beneficial. The bullseyes become you (Cop) and a bunch of vanillas. You're decreasing the pool to pick Scum out of, and Scum would at least start off by hitting some of those players. If they didn't, it'd be way too late by the end of the game.

YJ
Show
i l o v e s e c r e t a g e n t s

Mafia/1-0
Town/0-0
Third/0-0

[b]V/LA on weekends a lot. Soz beefz.[/b]
User avatar
Yosarian2
Yosarian2
(shrug)
User avatar
User avatar
Yosarian2
(shrug)
(shrug)
Posts: 16394
Joined: March 28, 2005
Location: New Jersey

Post Post #24 (ISO) » Wed Oct 07, 2009 9:22 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

It's also worth remembering that if town ever gets to the point when more then 50% of the town is confirmed innocent, then if there's only 1 scum kill a night, town should always win (unless something stupid happens).

So, if there's 12 people left alive, there are 3 known masons, and you are a cop with 2 confirmed innocents, then claim. With 1 claimed cop in the open (soon to be night-killed most likely), 2 cop-cleared innocents, and 3 masons, that's half the town confirmed innocent; all town has to do is to lynch one person in the pool of "unconfirmeds" every day, and town wins.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
Post Reply

Return to “Mafia Discussion”