When should the cop come forward?

[YamiJoey]

It depends on the size of the game, what's going on and other major factors. The site I'm on people just go "I'm cop. I found Player A and B as Town, then C as Scum. Kill him." then die that night because Doc's don't EVER seem to do their job. (We must've had two-kills stopped in about thirty-games.) But recently a guy hit some Town, and two Scum, never came forward and survived until the endgame after getting both lynched.

IMO Cop should come forward if they think there's a point to it. If they've gotten multiple results and not all Guilty or all innocent (because you'd be thick to assume you were that lucky, and thick to simply come forward on all Town unless pushed into a corner) then they're in a position to give something to the thread. From then on, it's up to that player entirely on how pressured they are, how likely they think they are to get hit, and how appropriate they feel it is to come forward.

Necropost is loved by me. <3

YJ

[YamiJoey]

It also depends if you're a rolecop. If you are and you're getting vanillas, then outing them as suspects, but obvously not revealing they're vanilla, would be highly beneficial. The bullseyes become you (Cop) and a bunch of vanillas. You're decreasing the pool to pick Scum out of, and Scum would at least start off by hitting some of those players. If they didn't, it'd be way too late by the end of the game.

YJ

[YamiJoey]

Assuming that the Cop is confirmed, and that any given Townie can count themselves into it, you really only need 4/11 to justify coming forward.

If a game starts with 10 Town Vs 2 Scum, mislynching every turn, and Cop scanning a Town that doesn't get lynched or killed, assuming Cop is the only power role: (Toown:Scum [Confirmed by Cop])

D1: 10:2
D2: 8:2 [1]
D3: 6:2 [2]
D4: 4:2 [3]

At D3 the Cop could come forward confirming two Town and themselves. As an unconfirmed Town, you now have two-Town and two-Scum remaining in the game to identify. The lynch for D3 is then much more informed, and the Cop will die that night.

If the Cop comes forward on D4, then that confirms themselves and everyone else. However; they are at a point where Scum could easily claim the same to take the game, so you can't trust them there, as it'll probably end up either being Scum, or getting Counterclaimed. I think a Counterclaim could easily work here, as you could claim you've scanned dead people alongside one other. Decide yourself if you select Scumbuddy or a Town. Scumbuddy would be quite obvious, but if they suspect you of that, it'll be safer to just go for you and risk losing Cop, IMO.

IMO Cop should come forward D3 in that situation, confirming a large majority of the Town. In a larger game:

16 Town Vs 5 Scum (Same as above)

D1: 16:5
D2: 14:5 [1]
D3: 12:5 [2]
D4: 10:5 [3]
D5: 8:5 [4]
D6: 6:5 [5]

There you have an obvious answer of D5, IMO. Whilst D6 would confirm everyone, the above applies. Scum could come forward as Cop and take the game too easily there, so no Cop-claim can be trusted. On D5 you'll be making 5 Scum Vs 3 Town. From thereon: (Confirmed:Unconfirmed:Scum)

D5: 5:3:5
D6: 4:3:4
D7: 3:3:3

I believe that's a much better position than anything else, simply going off probability of hitting your desired target. There are obviously many other things to take into account, but when it comes to the theory, you can often take your amount of confirmed, plus yourself, plus 1 when deciding on how far towards the 50% you are. Staying later might help the Town more, but at the same time, you could lose a lot more by not doing so. (Being NK'd, for a kick-off.)

YJ