California Trilogy: City of Angels - Off Stage (Game Over)

[Talilan]

I went and started re-reading ElmoSaurian's posts since we stunt switched him because I wanted to make sure we're lynching the right person today.

I am satisfied.

Anyone who is still wondering whether ElmYos is scum go back and read KY Krew's performance onstage with the Monty Hall business. Then add KY's runaway stunt switch and ask yourself how any intelligent townie could think for a second that KY might be town. Not just town, but also believe he's an advocate who received no useful information.

If any ElmYos sympathisers want to explain this to me, I am all ears.

~Talitha

vote: ElmoSaurian

[Talilan]

(Pssst, not you ElmYos. You've done lots of explaining. I would like the people defending you to explain it.)

[elmosaurian]

Anyone who is still wondering whether ElmYos is scum go back and read KY Krew's performance onstage with the Monty Hall business.

What about it, exactly? His behavior looked to me like someone who didn't didn't understand or didn't know about the monty hall math or whatever. I thought I remembered him not really posting much during the time between scenes, although I couldn't go and check, so that fit with KY-town. It wouldn't make sense if KY was part of the scum team.

I actually was doing my best, during that part of day 2, to trip up KY and to try to trap him, and find out if he was scum. If you look at the back and fourth between me and him there, that should be pretty obvious. I was a little frustrated you switched him out before he responded to my last comment there, when I explained the monty hall thing to him, or I might have gotten a better idea of what he was thinking.

Then add KY's runaway stunt switch and ask yourself how any intelligent townie could think for a second that KY might be town.

Again, after KY did the switch, my first reaction was to suspect him for it.

We don't have that much time left before deadline...I really wonder if this was a scum-KY's attempt to just dodge the lynch bullet for a day.

I was the first person to attack KY on those grounds. It was always part of the reason I thought he looked suspicious. And I always had my doubts about that whole odd "rumor" thing he claimed to have recieved.

Not just town, but also believe he's an advocate who received no useful information.

Did you read the coversation on day 1 about the monty hall math thing?

A lot of people (Glork, especially) seemed to be assuming that the advocate wouldn't assume any information at all, when we were discussing it before scene 2 started. The whole "monty hall" discussion seemed based on that assumption.

I personally questioned that assumption in thread here at the time, but after seeing it, I wouldn't have been surprised if the advocate didn't receive any information, other then the whole "monty hall" thing; it wouldn't surprise me at all if mith set it up so that, if the advocate is town, then town has a 2/3 chance of getting it right by solving a commonly known math problem.

[Talilan]

Lots of points for effort, but I simply don't believe you. Any townie of your experience would recognise a scum performance like that from 1000 miles away, while blind-folded, in your sleep.

And it was fine for you to be suspicious of KY, there was no down-side to that for scum-you, until you needed a reason to not vote for the correct door. Then you needed to manufacture some BS.

I understand the Monty Hall math thing, but as has been mentioned it only applies if you believed KY was town. That is the issue. Did you REALLY believe KY had a DECENT chance of being town. I say no way.

And I think it was more a case of people forgetting about the advocate information and making sure everyone understood the monty hall problem pre-scene 2, rather than assuming we wouldn't get any information.

[Thesp]

Thesp, what do you think of Elmosaurian?

As I'm reading the back-and-forth on elmosaurian2, I'm not wild about an elmosaurian2 lynch. At all.

So you have a town read on them then?

I'm leaning towards town on him, and I feel icky for doing so. I feel most of us offstage are town, and most of the scum are onstage.

I understand the argument against elmosaurian, and it's eminently reasonable. At the same time, I have lingering doubts in ways I'm not comfortable with, beyond my typical, "I wonder if I'm wrong?" type of doubts.

In either case, I feel Panzerjager is much more interesting, and I'm surprised not much more have commented on him.

@Thesp: Why didn't you revote Panzer if that's the way you want to go?

I shoudl have - I put him on my pseudo-Condorcet early on, but my vote will go on him with this post.

Talilan/ortolan, is what you posted in 1304 what you posted onscreen? (For the record, I'm really, really not happy that people onstage seem to be taking this as special information, though I'm sure it's an honest mistake.)

I do think we need to move in whatever direction we're moving now - if we're lynching elmosaurian2, do it, otherwise, push at

someone

. I'd like to see honest-to-goodness votes from sottyrulez and Panzerjager. I'll condorcet closer to a deadline if necessary, but I really don't want to be pushed to a deadline - I want to give a greenlight to the onstage people with time to spare.

Vote: Panzerjager.

[Mr. Grey]

Vote Count:

4 to lynch.

elmosaurian: 3 (MafiaJin, Mighty Orbots, Talilan)
Panzerjager: 1 (Thesp)

Not Voting: 3 (elmosaurian, Panzerjager, sottyrulez)

Current Condorcet Winner:

elmosaurian

To view the complete table of pairwise results, put the following information into this form.

1,elmosaurian
2,Mafia Jin
3,Mighty Orbots
4,Panzerjager
5,sottyrulez
6,Talilan
7,Thesp
8,No Lynch

1:2=3=4=5=6=7=8>1
1:1>3=4=5=6=7=8>2
1:1>2=4=5=6=7=8>3
1:1=2=3=5=6=7=8>4
1:1=2=3=4=6=7=8>5
1:1>2=3=4=5=7=8>6
1:4>1=2=3=5=6=8>7

[sottyrulez]

Also, Gaspar automatically trusting elmo's information despite declaring him obv-scum is completely nonsensical. There is evidence they are linked, and there is also evidence they are scummy separately (I would remind you three out of three dead townies all said Gaspar was scummy).

I agree with you here a lot and this is the main reason my suspicions of Glork have jumped up lately. He was starting to feel a little better to me as the days wore on but as soon as he just believed both advocates information despite finding them both scummy I felt like he needs to be lynched.

Thanks for the explanation, I see that I will have to go back and look at some of these events as you describe them and see if I agree. Our vote is very likely to go towards elmo today. It has a lot to do with his interaction with the obvscum KY Krew on stage and no matter how many times he goes over it I just don't believe him. I also don't like his late vote and pretty lack of a case on Talilan apart from countering the stuff they post.

As for the problem on stage, I sat down with Zach and we spoke about it coming up with the same four possibilities that Zorblag posted. Zach seemed to think that Yos's info isn't as strong as people seem to think it is. I will let him explain why he thinks that.

I am liking Thesp's idea more of just letting the people on stage figure out the puzzle for themselves and post their reasoning as to why they reached that conclusion. I think that would provide more information for us than simply telling them which way to vote.

[sottyrulez]

-Sotty

[sottyrulez]

Talilan/ortolan, is what you posted in 1304 what you posted onscreen? (For the record, I'm really, really not happy that people onstage seem to be taking this as special information, though I'm sure it's an honest mistake.)

That was also rubbing me the wrong way. I am glad that DGB seems to be pushing them away from that thought now though. Hewitt latched on it which makes my gut crawl and makes me doubt the Crone choice somewhat.

If we were to vote now it would be the hammer. Are we ready for that?

-Sotty

[Thesp]

Talilan/ortolan, is what you posted in 1304 what you posted onscreen? (For the record, I'm really, really not happy that people onstage seem to be taking this as special information, though I'm sure it's an honest mistake.)

That was also rubbing me the wrong way. I am glad that DGB seems to be pushing them away from that thought now though. Hewitt latched on it which makes my gut crawl and makes me doubt the Crone choice somewhat.

If we were to vote now it would be the hammer. Are we ready for that?

-Sotty

I'm not sure what else is going to come out of today, if that's where you're leaning. What else would we need to be "ready"?

[sottyrulez]

I guess we can still talk after the lynch anyway. I will get with Zach and see what he thinks then probably hammer.

-Sotty

[sottyrulez]

I am a bit perplexed by what sottyrulez is driving at here as I think that it's pretty clear that there's a difference between the mother not being the bad choice and knowing that she's the good choice (and hence knowing that she's the best choice.)

I'd also like to see how one would get that mother is the correct choice based on curiouskarmadog's information alone.

For that matter I'd like to see how Ortolan came to the conclusion that crone is the clear choice (Gaspar has given one way to get to that idea in the on camera thread) but I'd be surprised if that's what Ortolan had in mind.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Maybe I'm being a bit overpicky on the use of context by yos here, using pretty sure over I know it's the best choice. Maybe I'm being a bit paranoid, but seeing the use of pretty sure as opposed to I know feels like possible distancing from one's own assertion. It's just what I'm seeing and thinking as I observe it. It may be that I'm just seeing something that isn't actually there. (But I find it worth making a note of regardless.)

As to the choice, perhaps I'm seeing this in a unique way, or I'm just not seeing everything as it is, but to me it looks like we have several pieces to a math problem, and are approaching it already knowing part of the answer. (That the mother is not the bad choice.) If you put the choices in alphabetical order and use the information provided by CKD's note, then c comes before a if the alphabet loops right? If mother is choice c, and the bad choice does not come before the best letter of the alphabet, (which I'm assuming is choice a) then you can reason that the mother can't be the bad choice. (And I'm more or less discarding yos' assertion that it's not when I work it out.)

Is there something that I'm missing?

-Zachrulez

[Talilan]

Zach said..."the bad choice does not come before the best letter of the alphabet"

My interpretation was that the bad choice does not come before the best choice, alphabetically, but I think that's the same as what you're saying. But no looping, which is where our theories differ. Under the no-looping theory this is a possibility:

Crone neutral, Maiden good, Mother bad

~Tal

[Talilan]

Oh, we are looking at the alphabetical thing differently too.

Initially I was thinking about A as best choice in the alphabet also.. then I figured that it was probably CKD's way of paraphrasing that

the bad choice doesn't come before the good choice, alphabetically

, not that the bad choice doesn't come before choice A.

[elmosaurian]

Lots of points for effort, but I simply don't believe you. Any townie of your experience would recognise a scum performance like that from 1000 miles away, while blind-folded, in your sleep.

...

I understand the Monty Hall math thing, but as has been mentioned it only applies if you believed KY was town. That is the issue. Did you REALLY believe KY had a DECENT chance of being town. I say no way.

Yes, I did think there was a decent chance of him being town.

Frankly, I'm getting kind of sick of the "Yos is really good at mafia, and he's not agreeing with me when I'm OBVIOUSLY right, so Yos must be scum" votes I seem to be getting in every single game I play now, no matter what I do or don't do. I seem to be getting lynched when I'm town based on logic like that constantly these days, (either that or the "Yos is good, and the scum haven't killed him, so he must be scum" argument, which is equally bad) to the point where I'm starting to wonder if I need to make an alt just in order to be able to play mafia at all anymore. That's not directly related to any of this, but it's frustrating.

And I think it was more a case of people forgetting about the advocate information and making sure everyone understood the monty hall problem pre-scene 2, rather than assuming we wouldn't get any information.

It actually sounded to me, from the way he was posting, like Glork already knew before the day started that the advocates weren't going to get any information on day 2. Of course, that is only valid if Glork is a scum who slipped and revealed information he didn't mean to, but that was my impression at the time.

-Yos

[elmosaurian]

Anyway, I'm starting to have some second thoughts about my Talilan vote, again. The whole thing at the start of this page where Talitha unvoted me, did a re-read, and then voted me again, dosn't really look staged to me, and I can't really see a scum doing it at this point, after pushing a wagon on me this long and this hard. I donno, I could be reading too much into OMGUSy stuff the way I apparently did yesterday, but I don't think so.

On the other hand, I'm getting a really, really bad vibe from Sotty. Looking back at him, neither of them have scumhunted at all this game, to any degree, nor have they really contibuted anything useful at any point of the game. Last time they mentioned me before the moment, they called me "neutral". If any of the people leading my wagon here are town, then Scotty is acting exactally the way I would expect a scum to act; slowly, "reluctantly" coming joining a Yos wagon.

My second suspect right now is probably orbits; none of his attacks on me really seem honest, or interested in finding out the truth, or even seem to have any rational basis behind the "I don't understand why Yos said that about KY yesterday so he must be scum" baloney. Talilian has dropped to #3.

I'm also thinking Thesp is probably town here.

-Yos

Vote:Sotty

, Orbits, Talilan, [everyone], Thesp, No Lynch, Elmosaurian

[Thesp]

elmosaurian2, what do you think of Panzerjager?

[Mr. Grey]

elvis_knits joins the Gaspar hydra.

[sottyrulez]

Wow really? A vote on us as we are getting ready to hammer you based on nothing more than a “bad vibe”. You have spent the last bunch of pages fighting with Talilan and then when we say it looks bad you haven't voted for them, you vote. Then we say you haven't actually built a case on them either, so you drop your vote and jump on us. This doesn't feel genuine and seems like a last ditch attempt for us not to hammer. You see Thesp and Panzer leaning town on you and we're your stalemate.

I've seen enough.

-Sotty

Vote: elmosaurian

[Talilan]

Green light picture or music, por favor.

[Mr. Grey]

Vote Count:

4 to lynch.

elmosaurian: 4 (MafiaJin, Mighty Orbots, sottyrulez, Talilan)

Panzerjager: 1 (Thesp)
sottyrulez: 1 (elmosaurian)

Not Voting: 1 (Panzerjager)

To view the complete table of pairwise results, put the following information into this form.

1,elmosaurian
2,Mafia Jin
3,Mighty Orbots
4,Panzerjager
5,sottyrulez
6,Talilan
7,Thesp
8,No Lynch

1:5>3>6>2=4>7>8>1
1:1>3=4=5=6=7=8>2
1:1>2=4=5=6=7=8>3
1:1=2=3=5=6=7=8>4
1:1>2=3=4=6=7=8>5
1:1>2=3=4=5=7=8>6
1:4>1=2=3=5=6=8>7

elmosaurian has been lynched.

You may continue to talk in this thread if you wish. Posting requirements do not apply. elmosaurian's Actor Name and Alignment will be revealed at the end of the Scene.

[Thesp]

Will do.

I still want to see Panzerjager put forth some real opinions.

[Talilan]

lol @ Yos voting one of the towniest players in the game

lynch pls

it will be interesting to see if elvis can keep Glork's charade

(haven't read recent posts properly yet)

- ortolan

[Talilan]

Yes, 1304 was what I posted on-stage accidentally.

I see any theories based on the idea the alphabet "wraps around" as being meritless, ckd repeatedly insisted the bad does not come "instantly before" the good. Assuming both advocates are telling the truth, it has to be:

if Crone is good, then:

Crone < good

Maiden < neutral or bad

Mother < neutral or bad

If the Maiden is the best choice, then it has to be

Crone < neutral

Maiden < good

Mother < bad

If Mother is the best choice, then it has to be

Crone < bad

Maiden < neutral

Mother < good

If we assume Yos' information is correct, then I think it's very unlikely that the Mother is the actual good choice. It's far, far more likely to be neutral. If it is indeed neutral, then Crone has to be the good choice. If Yos was lying and that information is misleading, then we're not picking his suggestion of the "not bad" choice anyway, so we're in no way guaranteeing a loss anyhow. I don't honestly think his scumgroup would have thought that far ahead to manipulate us all the way into choosing Crone like this (even though ckd did post his information first). Ergo, I think Crone is the best pick. Plus it has the classic "lead casket" appeal from the Merchant of Venice ~

I am a little bit wary of people using the "vision from Carrie" as an excuse to vote the Crone. For a start it should have been clear it was a personal opinion and in no way an authoritative representation of the views of off-stage as a whole. That should have been very clear from the way it was worded that it was intended as a discussion post for off-stage, and when I misposted I posted immediately after "sorry, I didn't mean to post that here". If there's any reason for people's votes to be affected, it should be because they found my arguments convincing.

That said, my pick is still the Crone

We would also like some real opinions from Panzerjager (guess who Talitha was considering changing our vote to from elmo)

- ortolan

[Talilan]

This is stupid. Mother was so obviously the right choice, but I think we already hit lynch.

Yep, that is scummy. There is no way whatsoever Mother is "so obviously the right choice". If you look at my diagram above, there's only one configuration where Mother is the best choice, one where Maiden is the good choice, and two where Crone is the good choice. Also why does the obvious "mother is not the bad choice", assuming Yos is even telling the truth, entail "mother is the good choice"??? My (subjective) theory is Gaspar actually knows Crone is the correct choice, and is trying to buy town cred by pretending not to know this fact. Either way you can't say he has a basis for saying "mother is obviously the right choice".

- ortolan