California Trilogy: City of Angels - Off Stage (Game Over)

[elmosaurian]

Of course KY was going to die on day 2; that was a given. You really think anything me expressing some vauge doubts was an attempt to SAVE him? Seriously?

No, of course not; that's part of the reason KY obviously had to be lynched on day 2, and part of the reason I would have voted to lynch him if I was off-stage, because we couldn't take that chance.

Jeez Yos you're not making any sense. If it was a given that KY was going to die, what was the point of expressing doubt?

Seriously, Orbots?

I wasn't expressing my doubt because I didn't think he should be lynched; that wasn't a decision I got to make that day. All I was worried about was which door to pick, a completely unrelated decision.

So, what...your theory is that my plan was to wait until after he had been whisked off stage to be lynched, and then I would express some half-formed gut based doubts, and that that would somehow derail a wagon that was obviously going to happen no matter what?

Why would you have been all for lynching someone that you decided might be town?

How many times do I have to explain this?

If there's a 50-60% chance he's scum, which is about what I was thinking, then lynching him is obviously the right move.

On the other hand, if he's scum, and especally if he's scum that everyone in the game suspects, then trying to outguess him is pure OMGUS randomness; might as well flip a coin, like shadowlurker said. So if there's even, say, a 20% or 30% chance he's town, then door #2 would be the (slightly) better option, if only by a few percent.

So, yes, if I was off-stage, I would have voted again to lynch him, just like I did on day 1. I was on stage, though, so I wasn't trying to figure out if he was a better then random lynch or not, I had to figure out if there was any chance at ALL if he was town.

Do you understand the difference here?

Let me ask you this: Why do you think you were the only one to question KY's likely scummitude? Why do you feel other players besides myself expressed surprise by your play on camera Day 2? Why don't you think you got any traction with the feeling when you expressed it in thread?

Because KY looked scummy as hell, obviously. There was a lot of logical evidence pointing in that way, like I said.

Note that, in most cases, "looks scummy as hell" translates into about a 50%-60% chance of a correct lynch, at best.

Yos

[Mr. Grey]

Vote Count:

4 to lynch.

elmosaurian: 3 (MafiaJin, Mighty Orbots, Talilan)

Not Voting: 4 (elmosaurian, Panzerjager, sottyrulez, Thesp)

Current Condorcet Winner:

elmosaurian

To view the complete table of pairwise results, put the following information into this form.

1,elmosaurian
2,Mafia Jin
3,Mighty Orbots
4,Panzerjager
5,sottyrulez
6,Talilan
7,Thesp
8,No Lynch

1:2=3=4=5=6=7=8>1
1:1>3=4=5=6=7=8>2
1:1>2=4=5=6=7=8>3
1:1=2=3=5=6=7=8>4
1:1=2=3=4=6=7=8>5
1:1>2=3=4=5=7=8>6
1:4>1=2=3=5=6=8>7

[elmosaurian]

On a side note, why would Pooky say in the other thread "Elmo is going to be lynched pretty soon" when no one other then Talilan and Orbots had expressed any interest in lynching me before he left?

Pooky's not looking good here to me; if the scum are doing what it looks like they're doing, then he's likely part of it.

Yos

[elmosaurian]

1. I think the other interpretation is much less likely because of the context of all this.

What context, and why? We've agreed that he was very suspicious of KY day 1. If we're choosing between "I'm starting to doubt KY is scum" and "hay guys we should ___ because KY might be town" then the former seems far more likely in that context.

2. Lawl, no. This is Mafia, not a debate. There are parties who are deliberately lying to us.

The point is that it's not difficult to say someone looks scummy if you willingly misinterpret what they're saying. If you're town, you need to attempt to figure out what someone actually means. Part of that would be assuming they're not just being daft and have some kind of reason for things they do.

3. Or not, for example (iso) 31, 43, 61

I don't know what these are, elmosaur only has 23 posts in isolation on-camera. If this is off-stage, then it's obvious he suspected KY day 1; that doesn't the fact that his stance on-camera was "I'm starting to doubt my read" rather than "hey, let's do __ because maybe KY is town". Every post on-camera is in the context of what I quoted, "I may very well be wrong, much of the logical evidence in fact speaks strongly in favor of that possibility". That is his stance, which he has stated repeatedly, and trying to sell that as Yos coming to KY's aid in any way is simply straw-manning.

Obviously I'm disputing that it's probably true. I just think it's weird that you'd classify something your

hydra partner

said as "probably true".

Why is that weird? He said KY didn't plan it out, and that's probably true. Why do you believe it isn't probably true?

All that happened was that Yos got on camera, looked around, and suddenly started saying "well gee guys, maybe we should rethink all this."

How is it possible that I've pointed out that he stated why he did this multiple times, and you're basically refusing to argue whether his reason was good or bad? You're saying he had no reason for doing while avoiding the fact

he's told you why

. Unless you interact with that, you're basically saying that having any doubts is scummy, as far as I can see. This is when I've essentially shown you that such doubts are rational.

You don't think that they evidenced a lack of understanding about Monty Hall? Like, picking door #1 and then advocating door #1 which is clearly incorrect, or even saying "Mr. Odbody, what 'monty hall math thing'?" in 207, when Yos asked him about it?

No, it reinforced that they were manipulative scum.

What? You previously disputed that they appeared clueless about Monty Hall. You can't just sidestep it and say "well that should have been suspicious", especially when that doesn't answer what I said previously.

I think the right course of action is staying. I think they originally wanted to stick with "stay" being the right option as we're more likely to switch off-hand. But then they tried to double bluff us by saying door 1 is the right option. So I'd say stay.

And this is trying to out-WIFOM the scum. It's great that it worked out, but would you seriously claim that we're scummy for picking the wrong glass, especially when it's probably optimal for them to assign it randomly?

Also if you were town you would realise your actions are clearly very, very, very scummy and it is in no way scummy to attack you for them.

Laying aside the fact that I don't agree his actions were scummy, when have you

ever

seen a townie that agreed they were scummy and should be attacked? This is ridiculous.

I gotta say, the only reason I don't think Talilan/Orbots are necessarily scum is because I've seen people do truly horrible things involving tunneling as town; I'm very lenient on that sort of thing. Talilan is somewhat less surprising because they latched onto us for bizarre reasons (page 3 distancing or so?) earlier.. Orbots seems somewhat sketchier, I can't tell if he's misreading or just avoiding the actual issues of what Yos said; obviously I'm biased. I'll say one thing, it's very difficult to tell where anyone other than those two stands on the particulars against us.

I'm going to try and reread the whole thing tomorrow. At least half of the people here seem very in the background, which is disconcerting.

~ Elmo

[Talilan]

Ortolan, can you explain just why you think yos and Glork are both scum and bussing each other?

Large component of the read was them both attacking us for bad reasons when we were on-stage scene 1 (I make no apologies for this). Plus elmo's sentence to Gaspar which he didn't fill out, something like "I find you scummy because...". He then clearly started writing a new paragraph and it looked very much like he was trying to find a reason to suspect Gaspar but had forgotten to fill it out. At that stage when I was re-reading I found Gaspar's unfounded attacks very, very scummy and wondered why elmo was just going along with them. Just to the point where his attacks got ridiculous elmo seemed to make the point "aha! there is something scummy about you Gaspar" which is completely nondescript. I feel at that point Gaspar's scumminess was obvious and if elmo didn't get on the record at that point as suspecting Gaspar (even though again, they scummily didn't give any actual reasons) then they risked getting pulled under with Gaspar later.

True to my predictions, after I suspected them of distancing; elmo managed to act really scummy on-stage and towards KY Crew. Likewise he and Gaspar inexplicably locked onto each other. It looks exactly like they're just going through with their busing plan. That's it. I do feel pretty strongly about this and it's telling that while no-one was initially convinced by our arguments, labeling it OMGUS etc. as the game has progressed people have started to come round.

Also, Gaspar automatically trusting elmo's information despite declaring him obv-scum is completely nonsensical. There is evidence they are linked, and there is also evidence they are scummy separately (I would remind you three out of three dead townies all said Gaspar was scummy).

elmo: I promise I will advocate for Glork's lynch tomorrow regardless of your flip (in the absence of him getting unequivocally, 100% cleared somehow; not that that's viable, or even possible as he's scum). Otherwise I don't see any point continuing this discussion with you. I've always thought you were scum.

On to the on-stage problem:

um yer, I just looked at it and frankly it looks like the Crone is the completely obvious choice.

It is the only choice if we assume both advocates' information is correct.

As Gaspar inexplicably trusted elmo's information and I think they are both scum, I think it's because Gaspar knows elmo is telling the truth to begin with.

Even if this isn't the case, if we assume elmo is manipulative scum, then he couldn't have predicted we'd choose Crone to begin with (except by reading ckd's comments prior which admittedly he did, meh). It's possible he said the mother was the neutral choice in the hopes we would pick it assuming his information is correct.

Assuming elmo actually is town, I think ckd is town also therefore we get the only solution being Crone. My vote is definitely for Crone at present having not properly read what everyone on/off stage or even what Talitha said.

- ortolan (posting in the right place this time)

[elmosaurian]

Ortolan, can you explain just why you think yos and Glork are both scum and bussing each other?

Large component of the read was them both attacking us for bad reasons when we were on-stage scene 1 (I make no apologies for this).

Yes; you've been attacking me all game because you acted like scum on day 1, and I called you on it.

The fact that literally all you've done, all game, is OMGUS me because I suspected your behavior on day 1 is incredibly damning evidence against you, in my opinion. And the weakness of your other arguments, as you demonstrate in this very post, proves to me that that's what you're doing.

Plus elmo's sentence to Gaspar which he didn't fill out, something like "I find you scummy because...". He then clearly started writing a new paragraph and it looked very much like he was trying to find a reason to suspect Gaspar but had forgotten to fill it out.

I honestly can't believe you're still trying to use this as an argument. "Hey, Yos made a minor editing mistake when writing a post, he must be scum!"

At that stage when I was re-reading I found Gaspar's unfounded attacks very, very scummy and wondered why elmo was just going along with them. Just to the point where his attacks got ridiculous elmo seemed to make the point "aha! there is something scummy about you Gaspar" which is completely nondescript.

I was the first person to attack Glork on day 1. I never "went along" with his attacks on mafiajin, at all, that's simply a false statement.

I feel at that point Gaspar's scumminess was obvious and if elmo didn't get on the record at that point as suspecting Gaspar (even though again, they scummily didn't give any actual reasons) then they risked getting pulled under with Gaspar later.

Again, NO ONE ELSE "got on record" as suspecting Glork until after this point. If "not attacking glork" there is a scumtell, then I would literally everyone in the game is more guilty of it then I am.

I'll often go on a gut read, and at this point, I had a gut read on Glork. After I said that, other people agreed with me, because his behavior did seem off.

True to my predictions, after I suspected them of distancing; elmo managed to act really scummy on-stage and towards KY Crew.

And now you're making even less sense.

Likewise he and Gaspar inexplicably locked onto each other.

I was attacking Glork because I think he's scum. He later attacked me, when he had a chance to do so, probably because he's scum.

How on earth could you suspect Glork, but call my attacks on him "inexplicable"?

It looks exactly like they're just going through with their busing plan.

Or, like I'm town who suspects Glork.

That's it. I do feel pretty strongly about this and it's telling that while no-one was initially convinced by our arguments,

THAT'S BECAUSE THEY ARE BAD ARGUMENTS.

Also, Gaspar automatically trusting elmo's information despite declaring him obv-scum is completely nonsensical.

Well, he's scum, so he knows I'm telling the truth.

There is evidence they are linked

Only in your imagination.

and there is also evidence they are scummy separately (I would remind you three out of three dead townies all said Gaspar was scummy).

The scum saw that I looked suspicious, so they made me the advocate, AND, at the same time, killed one of the people I was suspicious of yesteday. The whole thing feels like a setup.

elmo: I promise I will advocate for Glork's lynch tomorrow regardless of your flip (in the absence of him getting unequivocally, 100% cleared somehow; not that that's viable, or even possible as he's scum).

Well, I promise that after we lynch you today, we'll lynch Glork tomorrow.


I want everyone to read through ortolan's post here. That mess of garbage is the case against me. That's it. I'm getting run up based on that, and none of it makes any sense at all.

I can't imagine there's any way ortolan could believe any of that as town. Am I missing something here? Orbots, you apparently want to follow ortolan here; want to explain to me how any of what he said makes any sense at all?

-Yos

[Mr. Grey]

Mod Note:

Talilan have posted in the On Camera thread while Off Stage, and have received their first strike.

[Talilan]

Yossy do you think the Crone is the right choice?

[PJ.]

Why is Yosaurian so damn good at mafia. I'm not sure what to do. For some reason he is coming off as ridiculously town to me.

[elmosaurian]

Yossy do you think the Crone is the right choice?

I'm pretty sure that Mother is the best choice here; I can't really get anything useful out of CKD's claimed clue, and we know mother is at least a safe choice.

[sottyrulez]

Yossy do you think the Crone is the right choice?

I'm pretty sure that Mother is the best choice here; I can't really get anything useful out of CKD's claimed clue, and we know mother is at least a safe choice.

Which is interesting because

Of the three choices, there is apparently one choice that is good, one choice that is bad, and one choice that is neither good nor bad; that choices is merely indifferent.

I can also tell all of you that I know that The Mother is not the bad choice.

Saying you know is a lot stronger certainty than now saying you are only "pretty sure."

-Zachrulez

Tags removed. Use bold only for voting. - Mod

[Talilan]

Why does Panzer's most recent post make my scumdar go wild?

And a 26-worder too. Are you having trouble keeping up with the posting in this game Panzer, or why are you posting so little?

And please take a stand, which of these are you going to run with here: is Yosarian being damn good at mafia or is he ridiculously town?

~Talitha

[MafiaJin]

Yossy do you think the Crone is the right choice?

I'm pretty sure that Mother is the best choice here; I can't really get anything useful out of CKD's claimed clue, and we know mother is at least a safe choice.

Which is interesting because

Of the three choices, there is apparently one choice that is good, one choice that is bad, and one choice that is neither good nor bad; that choices is merely indifferent.

I can also tell all of you that I know that The Mother is not the bad choice.

Saying you know is a lot stronger certainty than now saying you are only "pretty sure."

-Zachrulez

Tags removed. Use bold only for voting. - Mod

Sotty have you read the on camera thread at all? There is a neutral, a bad and a good. He KNOWS its not the bad choice. It could be neutral or good.

So Zach, what pick would you make if you were on camera? And why?

[PJ.]

Why does Panzer's most recent post make my scumdar go wild?

And a 26-worder too. Are you having trouble keeping up with the posting in this game Panzer, or why are you posting so little?

And please take a stand, which of these are you going to run with here: is Yosarian being damn good at mafia or is he ridiculously town?

~Talitha

Why can't I run with both. I think Yos is really good and is coming off as town to me. Most people have expressed concern about him but I haven't really gotten any bad vibes from him and think that you and him argueing is town on town violence andwould have rather lynched Glorky

I'm having a little trouble by my word count had nothing to do with that. I just didn't have very much to say because i feel your argueing is pointless. Not sure who I want to lynch out of the 7 off stagers. Probably MafiaJin..for the early conspiracy stuff with him putting himself onstage

[PJ.]

EBWOP: "I'm having a little trouble keeping up BUT my word count wasn't low because of that." is what the first sentence of the second paragraph should be.

[Talilan]

Why didn't you mention your preference for lynching Glork back in the between-scenes part where it seemed that everyone who were actually expressing opinions about who to lynch were favouring ElmYos?

Or, why not mention it earlier on this day before Pooky stunted?

Why now, halfway through the scene when it's too late to do anything about it today?

When did your suspicion of Glork become so strong? because all I can see you saying about him is that he's a different alignment to Elmo.

~Tal

[Talilan]

Probably just temporary while I discuss something with ortolan:

unvote: ElmoSaurian

[sottyrulez]

Yossy do you think the Crone is the right choice?

I'm pretty sure that Mother is the best choice here; I can't really get anything useful out of CKD's claimed clue, and we know mother is at least a safe choice.

Which is interesting because

Of the three choices, there is apparently one choice that is good, one choice that is bad, and one choice that is neither good nor bad; that choices is merely indifferent.

I can also tell all of you that I know that The Mother is not the bad choice.

Saying you know is a lot stronger certainty than now saying you are only "pretty sure."

-Zachrulez

Tags removed. Use bold only for voting. - Mod

Sotty have you read the on camera thread at all? There is a neutral, a bad and a good. He KNOWS its not the bad choice. It could be neutral or good.

So Zach, what pick would you make if you were on camera? And why?

My point was that he said he knows it's not the bad choice on camera, but he's since transitioned into weaker language, saying he's pretty sure it's the best choice as opposed to knowing it is. There's a world of difference between knowing and saying you are "pretty sure"

I would probably chose the mother if I was on camera. You can reason it based on CKD's info alone, and actually after I did go through the logic of CKD's info, I wonder if Yos' info was simply a piece of information that we could have eventually stumbled onto ourselves anyway.

-Zachrulez

[elmosaurian]

Yossy do you think the Crone is the right choice?

I'm pretty sure that Mother is the best choice here; I can't really get anything useful out of CKD's claimed clue, and we know mother is at least a safe choice.

Which is interesting because

Of the three choices, there is apparently one choice that is good, one choice that is bad, and one choice that is neither good nor bad; that choices is merely indifferent.

I can also tell all of you that I know that The Mother is not the bad choice.

Saying you know is a lot stronger certainty than now saying you are only "pretty sure."

-Zachrulez

Well, I know for a fact that the mother is not the bad choice, obviously. I don't know for a fact that it is the good choice. However, it's probably the right move here, since we know it's either neutral or good.

-Yos

[elmosaurian]

My point was that he said he knows it's not the bad choice on camera, but he's since transitioned into weaker language, saying he's pretty sure it's the best choice as opposed to knowing it is.

No, I didn't 'transition it into weaker language". I'm 100% certain that the mother is not the bad choice, and that makes me pretty sure it's the best choice for us to pick today.

-Yos

[Mighty Orbots]

I am a bit perplexed by what sottyrulez is driving at here as I think that it's pretty clear that there's a difference between the mother not being the bad choice and knowing that she's the good choice (and hence knowing that she's the best choice.)

I'd also like to see how one would get that mother is the correct choice based on curiouskarmadog's information alone.

For that matter I'd like to see how Ortolan came to the conclusion that crone is the clear choice (Gaspar has given one way to get to that idea in the on camera thread) but I'd be surprised if that's what Ortolan had in mind.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[elmosaurian]

Mm. The only way I can see why you could decide the crone is the good choice would be if you used some mod WIFOM, and I don't really want to go there.

-Yos

[Talilan]

ortolan and I are not set on 'Crone' as best choice. We're discussing the likelihood of ElmYos's information about the mother being true.

We're kinda thinking it might be true...
a) because of how Gaspar is acting about it, and
b) because there's no down-side to scumYos giving us the correct info as most wouldn't believe him anyway, and if he lives another day he'll look really good.

[PJ.]

Why didn't you mention your preference for lynching Glork back in the between-scenes part where it seemed that everyone who were actually expressing opinions about who to lynch were favouring ElmYos?

Or, why not mention it earlier on this day before Pooky stunted?

Why now, halfway through the scene when it's too late to do anything about it today?

When did your suspicion of Glork become so strong? because all I can see you saying about him is that he's a different alignment to Elmo.

~Tal

Beside being gone? Well, I didn't start leaning one direction or the other until Yos came back. Something about the way your(ElmYos-Talilan) conversation is going makes me feel that ElmYos is town.

[Talilan]

Are you able to be a little more specific, instead of "something about the way your conversation is going"?