Mini 851 - Bloodlust Mafia! - Game Over

[Zachrulez]

Except that he said he won't do it.

Why exactly would you want yourself lynched over Chibo? That doesn't really make any sense to me. You don't think he's scum?

[ChiboSempai]

why would i kill myself if im town? i already said i will do any kill command (including no kill, which ONLY a vig can do) except for kill myself, because i will not knowingly take out a town power role.

[J-Fox]

Will reply to Almaster's post after school.

That plan of yours Chibo actually does make quite a bit of sense, unless you happen to be mafia that is, then you could simply nominate someone else on your team to do the kill.

[RayFrost]

I think Alamaster and Chibo are both good choices for lynches.

I think the only reason I'm wary on Chibo is because of the way the Peabody lynch turned out, but it's probably likely that I shouldn't be.

Why don't you just lynch me and make Chibo kill himself? That way you get rid of both of us at the same time. If Chibo is actually town he'll do it because the alternative is wasting a town lynch.

He already said he will

not

shoot himself.

re J-Fox:

I meant that as it is "let's lynch him." This does not say "let's lynch him right now!" or "let's end the day immediately!" or anything similar. My words there are -as is- without -implication-.

[almightybob]

Votecount 2.2

ChiboSempai - 3 (canadianbovine, Pomegranate, AlmasterGM)
AlmasterGM - 2 (ChiboSempai, Konowa)

Not voting - 4 (Haylen, J-Fox, Zachrulez, RayFrost)

With 9 alive, it's

5

votes to lynch!

[Konowa]

I want to hear more from Haylen before anything is decided.

[Konowa]

Double-post.

Pomegranate too.

[Zachrulez]

I want to hear more from Haylen before anything is decided.

I agree, we should not leave this day phase without a content post from Haylen if it's at all possible.

[J-Fox]

Seriously, I can't believe this is even being debated. We have a PR claim against Chibo, and everyone is eating up this fairy tale about him being the roleblocked Vig? Give me a break. I don't feel like doing the exact math, but there's only a 33% chance he's the Vig out of 3 killing roles and there's only an 8.3% chance the SK was targeted by a roleblocker. Combined with the fact that the kill itself was pretty awful, I see ZERO REASON WHY we are believing this claim. He continually rolefishes and tries to get our other PR's to waste reveals or night actions to confirm his supposed innocence. This is a no-brainer.

Just for clarity, you're saying that we shouldn't even be thinking about this, and should be blindly walking into another quicklynch, just like yesterday?

Yeah OK, that is true, the less posts, the less power role tells. But we can only win a game if we lynch scum. We can still win a game even if all our power roles die, but if even only 1 scum is left alive at the end of the game, the scum have won. Information-wise, yes, we are poorer on Day 1 than on any other day, but this certainly does not mean it is impossible to get some decently strong evidence (as strong as reads without backup from revealed roles and such can be anyway) on players first before deciding to lynch them, rather than simply jumping all over the first error a player makes, or the first significant bandwagon after the RV-stage.

You're greatly underestimating the value of power roles. Like I said before, it's very hard to get tells - they are often inaccurate. Although it's certainly possible to get evidence, I think it's a better gamble to forgo that possibility and protect the power roles. Conveniently, look at the outcome of Night 1 - Three townies down, all 4 or 5 of our PR's are alive and kicking. Seems like a win to me.

Is three townies being down a win compared to, say, a scum, a townie and a Tracker down?

Who says the scum are gd players anyway? There's a very gd chance we also have some inexperienced or bad scum as well. The ones that may not be able to do a good town-act. Overall, it really is better to have quite a lot of posts to be able to determine as best as possible who is scum and not, and, of course up to a reasonable point (which is way before just 18 pages imo), the best way to do that is with plenty of evidence from posts and vote counts and such, things that can only be done in the day. From posts and votes we can work out connections between players, and so once one scum falls, we can try and work out the other scum from there. That is always an effective tactic.

If they're bad as scum, we'll catch them later anyway. There's no rush to nab them on Day 1. As far as the "plenty of evidence" goes, we already have 15 pages of evidence. Any more would be excessive and make things more complicated. I already stated this point in my original post.

Surely it's better to try and get these bad scum, if they exist, offed on Day 1 so we weaken the scum as early as possible. Common sense dictates that, if we quicklynch a couple of days and THEN start taking out the bad scum (assuming bad scum even exist, if all of them are competent, this makes your plan even WORSE), then we'll have less days (and less evidence) after that to root out the clever scum.

As well as this, the more days we quicklynch, the more likely we are to have more mislynches. And if we mislynch, not only do we take out one of our own, we also give the scum a free opportunity to potentially take out a Power Role, sometimes the scum lucky guess on nightkills and take out a power role even without a lot of evidence to suggest they are power roles, they just get lucky.

Your read could very easily be wrong, it's always better to wait for an actual claim rather than just chance out on a read in case you end up getting it wrong and lynching the Tracker or someone else quite important.

I'd trust my read way more than I trust Peabody's claim. So, no.

So, even if Peabody claimed Jailkeeper or Tracker or something like that, you'd have still lynched him based on your read of him. A read which is based on Day 1 evidence, which you've already said yourself is very weak. This is not only unbelievably stubborn, but also very hypocritical as well.

If he did claim a Power Role, and he was simply fishing, for reasons stated above, it is well worth it to sacrifice a power role for a scum. I'm sorry, but your reasons for ending the day early without letting Peabody have a chance to claim are completely illogical in my opinion, and are quite a big scumtell in my eyes.

Completely wrong. It's worth it to sacrifice a PR to get a previously hidden scum, but it is definitely NOT worth it to confirm someone who's at L-1. Why on earth would we want to give up our Cop or Doctor so that we could be 100% sure Peabody was scum? Terrible idea. Just terrible. Any game theorist will confirm its.

We don't even have a Cop or Doc if you read the OP, but that's slightly beside the point.

What isn't however is the fact that just because someone is at -1, that far from makes it likely they are scum. As you keep saying, only evidence based on posts are available to us on Day 1, and you've said countless times before evidence based on posts is weak, but now you've twice called this enough to make someone likely scum.

It is possible that one of the targets was targeted by the possible Jailkeeper as well too.

It's statistically unlikely, but possible, yes.

And therefore something we must consider before jumping in with two feet again.


I'm now fairly convinced Almaster is who we should be lynching today, we have a Tracker claim on Chibo yes, but he still could well be the Vig, and it's a bit more likely that, if he isn't the Vig, he is the SK. Almaster gives me much more of a Mafia-vibe than an SK-vibe, and I feel we probably should be targeting Mafia over SK's at this point, especially since, if Chibo is SK, we can direct him if we so choose to.

Vote: Almaster

[Konowa]

Also, Almaster claiming that he did not get a power role read on Peabody is very much hindsight justification in my opinion.

[Pomegranate]

Hi, I'm back.

Scumlist:
(From scummiest to least scummy)
AlmasterGM
ChiboSempai
RayFrost
Haylen
canadianbovine
Konowa
J-Fox
Zachrulez

I'm still very suspicious of Chibo's vig claim, but I don't like how Almaster has been acting of the late. His hammer on D1 was premature and very scummy; This post really bothered me. I don't think the justification for his vote made sense or gave any good reason for his hammer.

Right now I will

Unvote; Vote: AlmasterGM

I am surprised no one has called Pomegranate out on her post here. Pom, why do you automatically assume that there is only two killing factions? Also, why do you say it is probably either Mafia+SK or Mafia+Vig? We know that there

is

a SK in this game. This makes me twitch a little.

FOS Pomegranate

I wasn't thinking correctly; I was thinking in terms of a closed setup. I think that should be obvious, considering that we

know

that there is an SK in the game.

[ChiboSempai]

That puts Almaster at L-1 right?

[Pomegranate]

That puts Almaster at L-1 right?

It should.

[RayFrost]

Hi, I'm back.

Scumlist:
(From scummiest to least scummy)
AlmasterGM
ChiboSempai
RayFrost
Haylen
canadianbovine
Konowa
J-Fox
Zachrulez

Would you mind explaining why you put each person where they are, not

just

Almaster and Chibo? It's kinda hard to see weaknesses/strengths in logic when the logic isn't given...

[Pomegranate]

RayFrost
Haylen
canadianbovine
Konowa
J-Fox
Zachrulez

RayFrost, there is a gap between Chibo and you in scumminess, just no one to fill it with. You're where you are because I felt you were slightly to enthusiastic about lynching Chibo.

You, Haylen, canadianbovine, and Konowa are all pretty close- somewhere around neutral, but in the order I put you.

J-Fox and Zachrulez seem the most townie to me because they are posting and contributing ideas, opinion, etc.

~~~

The reason for my being V/LA so often is because of the Jewish Holidays. There's more coming up, but I'll make sure to post when I will be V/LA. It will wostly be weekends.

[AlmasterGM]

Claim: Vanilla Town.

I have nothing else to say other than you are making a mistake. Defending myself seems fairly pointless - you either buy what I already said or you don't. If anyone has any other questions, ask them now and I shall answer.

[RayFrost]

Almaster, who do you think are the scum/sk?

re Pome:

eeeeh... =/

I'm enthusiastic when I think there has been obv scum/sk caught. Would you prefer I had no enthusiasm? That usually leads to no posting for me... >.>

[AlmasterGM]

Actually, I lied. I do have one thing to say, and you should listen because I'm going to flip town as soon as someone hammers. Not lynching Chibo is a HUGE mistake. Even if I'm mafia, lynching me does NOTHING for you because my partner will just send in the kill. Chibo, on the other hand, can be stopped right here, right now. Leaving him alive puts our PR's at risk because it lets him kill again. You say you can tell him what to do and that he's going to no kill, but trust me, he won't no-kill - he'll just kill, then blame it on the SK (who is actually him).

P.S. @ Chibo: If you actually are the Vig, DO NOT KILL N2. There are going to be 4 vanilla townies dead, so you are more likely to hit one of our own PR's than scum. Just hold your move.

Almaster out.

[ChiboSempai]

Just making sure, when the day ends, is that what I should do? Not kill Night 2?

You might want to jail me to keep me alive from mafia or SK as well as track me to assure that I didn't target anyone.

[ChiboSempai]

Slight elaboration on the second part. Because the mafia will jump at the chance to take out the town's Vigilante. Especially if the Mafia has a roleblocker than blocked the SK (one of the possibilities), then they will know who the SK is for later, and with me roleclaiming Vig... It's a good opportunity for them.

[Zachrulez]

Vote: ChiboSempai

Post 430, post 447, and post 528 are good reads to understand my reasoning.

His suspicions in Post 430 do not match up with his vig target.

His analysis and attempt to rule out the vig in 447 look pretty bad as well.

His refusal to even consider the option of self vigging in 528 when he's caught in a kill is also pretty telling IMO.

[ChiboSempai]

Why would I self vig? What would that accomplish? I would be knowingly killing a power town role, something I don't want to do.

I have the power as a Vig to choose not to kill. I can do that and I can be tracked to make sure I don't target someone. SK can not forgo the night kill.

[AlmasterGM]

Just making sure, when the day ends, is that what I should do? Not kill Night 2?

You might want to jail me to keep me alive from mafia or SK as well as track me to assure that I didn't target anyone.

Yeah, no. We are totally NOT wasting PR's on you. You are so anti-town I can't believe I'm at L-1 and you are not.

[Pomegranate]

re Pome:

eeeeh... =/

I'm enthusiastic when I think there has been obv scum/sk caught. Would you prefer I had no enthusiasm? That usually leads to no posting for me... >.>

Calm down, I'm not that suspicious of you, and I'm pretty suspicious of Chibo. I'm just not sure who to vote for, Almaster or Chibo.

[RayFrost]

re Pome:

eeeeh... =/

I'm enthusiastic when I think there has been obv scum/sk caught. Would you prefer I had no enthusiasm? That usually leads to no posting for me... >.>

Calm down, I'm not that suspicious of you, and I'm pretty suspicious of Chibo. I'm just not sure who to vote for, Almaster or Chibo.

This is calm O.o Me not calm is me excited, for the most part.

Anyway, I was just explaining. I figure it is best to explain things for future reference rather than let people (possibly) make incorrect assumptions. Assumptions that are wrong are harmful to town.

The jailkeeper shouldn't target Chibo tonight. That'd complete defeat the purpose of, y'know, having him not "vig" tonight, since he'd be RBed out of doing it... subtle SK move, imo. I think my vote is currently still on him, so I'm keeping with that.