Mini 851 - Bloodlust Mafia! - Game Over

[ChiboSempai]

If you vote me and I turn out to be the Vigilante as I say:

-Town will be down to 4 people compared to 1 SK and 3 Mafia member
-Night 1 the mafia will kill a town member making it 3 town 1 SK 3 mafia
-If the SK kills a townie, mafia will win, out numbering the townsfolk. if the SK kills a mafia member, then it's 3 town 1 SK 2 mafia, still not a good situation.
-However, to play it safe - if there is a Mafia Roleblocker who knows who the SK is (from a successful block), then they can block him again so when D3 starts its 3 Town 1 SK 3 Mafia. Not a good situation at all, will likely result in a loss for the town since they will essentially have 4 enemies to their 3 members.

[Zachrulez]

Alright, I've been giving this a bit of thought.

@Chibo

Is it your position that you believe that SK had his kill blocked? I just want to get this straight.

Would you be willing to follow the town's direction, should it be self vigging, not vigging, vigging at town's discretion under penalty of death if you defy the town?

I can see it possible that you are suffering from confirmation bias in regards to being the vig and are unable to come up with a reasonable defense to the circumstances or a powerfully convincing explanation, but despite all that may actually still be the vig.

I could see how you might be lead to believe that an SK would have to be compulsive, as the wiki tends to lead to that belief.

What do you think about the fact that people are accusing you of being an SK? (Frankly, I'm not in this camp personally, I can explain my position when you answer.)

[J-Fox]

I'm not pushing for a quick lynch so much as I am determined to have a chibo lynch, since I think he's sk. This doesn't mean I want chibo lynched immediately, just that he's my preference.

If you don't want him lynched right away, why use the phrase "Let's lynch this SK!"? That sounds quite a lot like you want him lynched as soon as possible

Would you mind summarizing your case on almaster, so I get the full extent of it?

Will do next post, just noticed something I want to point out here and now:

Zach makes a very good point in that last post, why are you so sure that it was the SK, not the scum, that got blocked Chibo? To quote you directly:

Fact 4: Either
a) The SK was hit by the Mafia Roleblocker
b) The SK was hit by the Jailer
c) The SK's target was hit by the Jailer

No mention of the scum here at all.

[ChiboSempai]

Alright, I've been giving this a bit of thought.

@Chibo

Is it your position that you believe that SK had his kill blocked? I just want to get this straight.

Either the SK was roleblocked or jailed, or his target was jailed. It's the only explanation.

Would you be willing to follow the town's direction, should it be self vigging, not vigging, vigging at town's discretion under penalty of death if you defy the town?

Self vigging as in choosing to kill myself? Is that even possible? Even if it is, that I am not willing to do because I know 100% that I would be killing a townie, and a power role at that. However yes, I will kill anyone else the town wants me to, OR...

You introduce an amazing way for me to prove that I am the Vig and not SK. The Vig can choose not to kill during the night unlike the SK. The SK HAS to kill each night. If the town wishes, I will not kill tonight, and to confirm it you can have the Tracker target me to make sure I target no one. Then in D3 you will either see one or two kills, one guaranteed by the mafia, and one from the serial killer since he is forced to kill. The only way there will be one kill is if the SK gets roleblocked or jailed again (or his target is jailed).

The town can choose what they want, have me kill whoever or not kill at all and I will do so under penalty of death if I do not comply.

I can see it possible that you are suffering from confirmation bias in regards to being the vig and are unable to come up with a reasonable defense to the circumstances or a powerfully convincing explanation, but despite all that may actually still be the vig.

I could see how you might be lead to believe that an SK would have to be compulsive, as the wiki tends to lead to that belief.

I originally believed that the SK had to kill every single night because of the Wiki, yes. However the mod further confirmed for us that for this game the SK must kill every single night, and if he doesn't send the name of someone, the mod chooses one person at random to kill (out of anyone, including the SK himself).

What do you think about the fact that people are accusing you of being an SK? (Frankly, I'm not in this camp personally, I can explain my position when you answer.)

Personally I can't blame them. Someone died, and a tracker got me targeting him, and it's true - I did target him. It's really not a pretty situation.

But remember in all of this I'm forced to roleclaim and the mafia will realize I'm a power town role, so we also have to act accordingly to make sure I am safe for the town.

If there is a Jailer, have him jail me to protect me. You can then have me target/kill no one (since a Vig can choose not to kill but a SK can't). Have a Tracker track me. The tracker will see that I targeted no one, and the jailer will prevent me from being killed by the mafia. Unless you want to use my kill tonight to the Town's advantage and you can track to make sure I do the kill I was told to, but then we have to think of a way for the mafia to not kill me.

[ChiboSempai]

J-Fox -

Can the mafia be prevented from doing their night kill? I know in some games a single mafia member has to do the deed or it's considered done in general. I personally have only been in 3 games and this hasn't come into play yet in my own experience.

Mod: Can the mafia's night kill be prevented in anyway by the Jailer?

The Mafia must nominate who performs their kill, so if that person were to be targeted by a Jailkeeper, the Mafia kill would not go through.

The only way the Mafia's kill can be stopped in this game is through the Jailer since that is the town's roleblocking force. In terms of a roleblocker only, the only possible roleblocker in the game is the mafia, and the Mafia Roleblocker wouldn't block their own kill.

[ChiboSempai]

So technically it is possible for the mafia's kill to be stopped, considering it was only N1 and the descriptions of the kills, I would say it's safe to assume that their kill was indeed carried through.

[Konowa]

Back.

Catching up now.

[J-Fox]

My case against Almaster:

Quite a bulk of it are in these two posts. My opinion of him is not at all helped by the fact that, as Chibo has pointed out, he has now tried to end

both

days early, so it looking a little unlikely that his only motive for wanting to cut Day 1 short like that was because he genuinly feels Day 1 is worthless, thanks to this though, it's looking increasingly likely he has an ulterior motive for doing that.

As well as this, a couple of things in his posts do not sit too well with me either.

SCUM

canadianbovine

- hasn't done ANYTHING except confirm and random vote. Literally, he has two posts.

Haylen

- switcher her vote twice (outside of RVS) to jump on random bandwagons. Hardly gives any analysis in her posts. What few posts she does have are beefed up with pointless questions.

Looker

- plays the n00b card multiple times, but has been registered since February. Huh?

Rosso Carne

- hasn't said anything relevant to the game AT ALL.

Zachrulez

- Lurky

Pomegranate

- V/LA

Konowa

- V/LA

RayFrost

Peabody

J-Fox

ChiboSempai

TOWN

Why is passive lurking scummier than active lurking?

Here he jumped on the Rosso wagon for no apparent reason. This despite the fact that in your very next post, you appear to be defending him, or at least covering for him.

That being said, I don't have a problem keeping Rosso around another round or so. The only problem is what happens in D2 or 3 if he hasn't done anything? Are we going to lynch him then? No. Everyone will probably forget about D1, Rosso will be like "it's not my fault I don't nail scum every time," and he'll run free. It's a dangerous situation.

This is an extremely fence-sitty post. You're against Rosso's lynch, but you also think keeping him around is a dangerous situation? Way to keep your options open about him.

Another post of mine against him here. He never got round to responding to these points either, unfortunately too busy wielding an untimely, giant hammer to do so.

In addition to all this, Rosso, who we now know is town, was consistantly suspicious of Almaster as well, both before and after he hammered.

[J-Fox]

Mod: Can the mafia's night kill be prevented in anyway by the Jailer?

Why would you think it'd be impossible for the scum's kill to be blocked, but possible for the SK's to be? Not only would this be incredibly unusual, but ridiculously unfair against the SK, considering the numerical disadvantage he is at already.

So technically it is possible for the mafia's kill to be stopped, considering it was only N1 and the descriptions of the kills, I would say it's safe to assume that their kill was indeed carried through.

It's always safer to just completely ignore the kill descriptions as evidence, playing mod is always a very dangerous game and can easily lead to incorrect assumptions.

Why is it any more likely for the SK to have been blocked than the scum? What night it is doesn't play any role in likelihood of blocking, it is, as far as I can tell, always pretty much 50/50 if anyone does get blocked.

[Haylen]

Catching up. Was is this game that someone wanted links to my previous games? I havent been actively lurking, I was posting in my newbie game whilst v/la but I explained the situation to the mod and he was fine with it. Or do you mean I was lurking before? Cause I wasnt posting anywhere on the site. I dont lurk, I just dont feel like posting sometimes.

[ChiboSempai]

That's true I suppose.

The advantage the mafia has however is that the 3 of them can discuss together which one to nominate that is the least likely to be suspicious. However that doesn't stop their target from being jailed

But yea we shouldn't base assumptions around the mod's text i suppose.

[Konowa]

Caught up slightly. Will be caught up fully tomorrow.

Chibo, why would you rule out the possibility of a vigilante here when you are the vig? This makes no sense to me. Why are you fishing so hard also?

As much as I really did not like Chibo D1 and his D2 seems more self-serving than anything else, I am not willing to lynch him today.

Moving onto something else.

I am surprised no one has called Pomegranate out on her post here. Pom, why do you automatically assume that there is only two killing factions? Also, why do you say it is probably either Mafia+SK or Mafia+Vig? We know that there

is

a SK in this game. This makes me twitch a little.

FOS Pomegranate

Even though the WIFOM from his [Almaster] hammer makes my head spin, I can think of no reason why a town player would hammer in that situation.

vote AlmasterGM

Also, Haylen needs to post her opinions on the game now.

[Haylen]

Cant. I said Im catching up. Like you are. I was v/la too.

[Konowa]

Did not see that you posted before me. Please no massive wall of text, as I have seen that you are tend to do sometimes A short, concise post with your thoughts on each player would be more than enough.

[Haylen]

haha. Those great text walls are nothing, I've got much more where they come from.
I WILL keep it down though, as im pretty tired atm.

[AlmasterGM]

Seriously, I can't believe this is even being debated. We have a PR claim against Chibo, and everyone is eating up this fairy tale about him being the roleblocked Vig? Give me a break. I don't feel like doing the exact math, but there's only a 33% chance he's the Vig out of 3 killing roles and there's only an 8.3% chance the SK was targeted by a roleblocker. Combined with the fact that the kill itself was pretty awful, I see ZERO REASON WHY we are believing this claim. He continually rolefishes and tries to get our other PR's to waste reveals or night actions to confirm his supposed innocence. This is a no-brainer.

Yeah OK, that is true, the less posts, the less power role tells. But we can only win a game if we lynch scum. We can still win a game even if all our power roles die, but if even only 1 scum is left alive at the end of the game, the scum have won. Information-wise, yes, we are poorer on Day 1 than on any other day, but this certainly does not mean it is impossible to get some decently strong evidence (as strong as reads without backup from revealed roles and such can be anyway) on players first before deciding to lynch them, rather than simply jumping all over the first error a player makes, or the first significant bandwagon after the RV-stage.

You're greatly underestimating the value of power roles. Like I said before, it's very hard to get tells - they are often inaccurate. Although it's certainly possible to get evidence, I think it's a better gamble to forgo that possibility and protect the power roles. Conveniently, look at the outcome of Night 1 - Three townies down, all 4 or 5 of our PR's are alive and kicking. Seems like a win to me.

Who says the scum are gd players anyway? There's a very gd chance we also have some inexperienced or bad scum as well. The ones that may not be able to do a good town-act. Overall, it really is better to have quite a lot of posts to be able to determine as best as possible who is scum and not, and, of course up to a reasonable point (which is way before just 18 pages imo), the best way to do that is with plenty of evidence from posts and vote counts and such, things that can only be done in the day. From posts and votes we can work out connections between players, and so once one scum falls, we can try and work out the other scum from there. That is always an effective tactic.

If they're bad as scum, we'll catch them later anyway. There's no rush to nab them on Day 1. As far as the "plenty of evidence" goes, we already have 15 pages of evidence. Any more would be excessive and make things more complicated. I already stated this point in my original post.

Your read could very easily be wrong, it's always better to wait for an actual claim rather than just chance out on a read in case you end up getting it wrong and lynching the Tracker or someone else quite important.

I'd trust my read way more than I trust Peabody's claim. So, no.

If he did claim a Power Role, and he was simply fishing, for reasons stated above, it is well worth it to sacrifice a power role for a scum. I'm sorry, but your reasons for ending the day early without letting Peabody have a chance to claim are completely illogical in my opinion, and are quite a big scumtell in my eyes.

Completely wrong. It's worth it to sacrifice a PR to get a previously hidden scum, but it is definitely NOT worth it to confirm someone who's at L-1. Why on earth would we want to give up our Cop or Doctor so that we could be 100% sure Peabody was scum? Terrible idea. Just terrible. Any game theorist will confirm its.

It is possible that one of the targets was targeted by the possible Jailkeeper as well too.

It's statistically unlikely, but possible, yes.

I'll respond to this terrible case on me later. Here's a condensed version now, though: If you vote for me instead of Chibo, you're being absolutely absurd.

[ChiboSempai]

Not buying Almaster's last post. First off his second sentence right off the bat is wrong:

"We have a PR claim against Chibo, and everyone is eating up this fairy tale about him being the roleblocked Vig?"

If he had actually been paying attention to whats going on, reading and understanding the posts he would know that I was not a Vigilante that was roleblocked. I am a Vigilante who targeted Looker and got my kill. It was either the SK that was roleblocked or jailed, or the SK's target who was jailed.

I can't help but get the feeling that Almaster is still trying to push for a speedy D2 similar to how he ended D1 on a whim. He's trying to provide fancy numbers to persuade people to end this, but they honestly do not make sense. I don't even wish to know how he got them, because they are wrong.

[Zachrulez]

Ok, I will ask again cause apparently the fact that I'm not getting it or not seeing it isn't sinking in.

But if there was a blocked kill, why does the blocked kill HAVE to be an SK kill that was blocked? Why couldn't it have been a mafia kill that was blocked?

[ChiboSempai]

The thought honestly didn't occur to me when first thinking about. It's true that it could be possible, but it's less likely. In order for the mafia kill to been blocked, then the jailer would have had to have jailed either the mafia member sent to do the deed, or the person they targeted.

The roleblocker wouldn't be able to play a role in it because the only roleblocker is a mafia roleblocker, and they wouldn't block the mafia's kill.

So, if there is a jailer, then he knows potentially who a mafia member is or who was targeted by the mafia member, that is IF the mafia kill was blocked and not the serial killers kill.

[canadianbovine]

Caught up slightly. Will be caught up fully tomorrow.

Chibo, why would you rule out the possibility of a vigilante here when you are the vig? This makes no sense to me. Why are you fishing so hard also?

As much as I really did not like Chibo D1 and his D2 seems more self-serving than anything else, I am not willing to lynch him today.

why do you not think so? he's been fishing the whole day, and that kill choice was terrible.

[canadianbovine]

im honestly surprised.

I'm pretty sure i've caught scum or sk on this one.

[Pomegranate]

Will catch up and post tomorrow afternoon.

[Zachrulez]

I think Alamaster and Chibo are both good choices for lynches.

I think the only reason I'm wary on Chibo is because of the way the Peabody lynch turned out, but it's probably likely that I shouldn't be.

[Pomegranate]

Will catch up and post tomorrow afternoon.

(Don't have time now and I've got school tomorrow.)

[AlmasterGM]

I think Alamaster and Chibo are both good choices for lynches.

I think the only reason I'm wary on Chibo is because of the way the Peabody lynch turned out, but it's probably likely that I shouldn't be.

Why don't you just lynch me and make Chibo kill himself? That way you get rid of both of us at the same time. If Chibo is actually town he'll do it because the alternative is wasting a town lynch.