/in-Vitational Game 4 (Game Over!)

[elvis_knits]

I just think scum would rather go for a mislynch on somebody else, rather than construct a fake claim in order to lynch a power role, which would result in confirming two innocents. It's not 100%, but I just think Iam fakeclaiming is unlikely. If you disagree, explain why.

You're saying it's might be a 1-1 trade, but it's not really since we would also get two confirmed innocents in the bargain, putting the scum in the position of having to waste their NK's on vanillas, or leave confirmed innocents alive and try to get PR's. That's a sucky position for them to be in. Much better to NK a power role and let the investigations die with them, and not expose one of their team via fake claiming.

I think the two-confirmed-innocents thing is really great for us even in the event we lynch a townrofl -- even if one of you gets iced tonight. That means we only have a vanilla die tonight. Increases our chance of having game-winning results tomorrow.

The two things that will screw a scum team in the end are confirmed innocents and power roles. This will put them in the position of wondering which will be more damaging. If it were me, I would be worried.

Also, I think we likely have scum lovers. We were screwed hardcore with the magic train all dying N1. It seems likely that scum lovers would balance that out. So we should be watching for protective behavior. The lovers have to protect each other, maybe even the whole scum team has to protect them, since if one dies, they take a double hit. The risk to them is great. We should be very mindful of who has been protecting whom. And it just seems ridiculous to me that Iam would claim a guilty on rofl and the whole town wouldn't want to lynch rofl. The normal course of events would be to lynch rofl. It just makes the most sense. But most people are trying not to do it. I wonder why.

[mith]

Deadline:

Approximately 6 days from this post.

Vote Count:

7 to lynch.

iamausername: 4 (charter, Kmd4390, PookyTheMagicalBear, roflcopter)
roflcopter: 4 (ekiM, elvis_knits, iamausername, SerialClergyman)
SerialClergyman: 2 (VP Baltar, Yosarian2)
charter: 1 (zu_Faul)
Kmd4390: 1 (populartajo)
PookyTheMagicalBear: 1 (Thesp)

[elvis_knits]

We are really scatterbrained here, ppl.

These are the facts:

Iamausername forced rofl to claim.
Rofl claimed vanilla cop with two innocents on Yos and VPBaltar.
Iamausername claimed jailkeeper who kept rofl N1

Our choices are:
1)Rofl is scum
2)Iamausername was blocked
3)Iamausername is scum who decided it would be a good idea to fake claim out of nowhere

I would like everyone to say which of the above 1, 2, 3 they think is most likely and why.

If I am picking from your list, then I'm going with #3 for reasons I already stated. I also don't see much difference this game from rofl's usual town style.

If you think Iam is scum, why are you voting SC?

[VP Baltar]

I just think scum would rather go for a mislynch on somebody else, rather than construct a fake claim in order to lynch a power role, which would result in confirming two innocents. It's not 100%, but I just think Iam fakeclaiming is unlikely. If you disagree, explain why.

I already explained why. Getting a mislylnch on a powerrole is significantly better than getting a mislynch on someone they don't have an inclination toward. Now, the question of why they didn't kill him over night if that is true is a fair enough. Maybe they thought he might be protected since apparently so many people assumed he was a PR. I dunno. It's a decent point to make.

The two things that will screw a scum team in the end are confirmed innocents and power roles. This will put them in the position of wondering which will be more damaging. If it were me, I would be worried.

But that doesn't answer my point really. Say rofl does flip town. Say we have five scum and a mislynch today puts us in lylo. What do you think are the odds of the town lynching correctly in that situation even if you do have one confirmed vanilla? Do you feel a lot of people would look suspicious if that were the case?

If you think Iam is scum, why are you voting SC?

I just haven't been in a hurry because I think this is a very serious decision with ramifications for the fate of the game. I want to fully talk it out (yeah yeah, I know I was away for a couple days, but I still feel the same way). Right now my vote isn't hurting anything with where it's at and I will move it when the time comes to make a decision. Also, I still think SC could be scum.

[mith]

Mod Note:

roflcopter has been prodded.

[ekiM]

I feel like everyone who was lining up to lynch Xyl yesterday is lining up to lynch iam today. And I have to conclude that probably most or all of the scum team is there. I have yet to see a good explanation for why iamscum would fakeclaim right then, when there were no clear wagons at all. Why wouldn't he prefer waiting to see what wagons started forming? Why wouldn't it be better to get a townie lynched in exchange for nothing, rather than putting himself into an (at best) 1-1 trade?

Just look:

It wouldn't be a good idea unless there was a strong chance scum was going to be lynched without the 1 for 1 trade, because a 1 for 1 trade is clearly worse for scum than a 1 for 0 trade. Do you think there was scum heading for a lynch today before I forced this situation? If so, who?

Not really.

What the hell kind of response is this?

I don't know who moving against iam is town, but please stop and consider this point, and the lack of response to it. And look at who you're lining up with, and if they really look like a crowd full of townies.

[ekiM]

Also,

Mod and others: I will be V/LA Fri 25th to Sun 27th.

[Kmd4390]

I don't know who moving against iam is town, but please stop and consider this point, and the lack of response to it. And look at who you're lining up with, and if they really look like a crowd full of townies.

iamausername: 4 (charter, Kmd4390, PookyTheMagicalBear, roflcopter)

Charter is town. I am town. Pooky is scum. Rofl depends on Iam.

roflcopter: 4 (ekiM, elvis_knits, iamausername, SerialClergyman)

You (ekiM) are scum. EK, I have no idea anymore. Iam depends on Rofl. Serial is town.

[elvis_knits]

I just think scum would rather go for a mislynch on somebody else, rather than construct a fake claim in order to lynch a power role, which would result in confirming two innocents. It's not 100%, but I just think Iam fakeclaiming is unlikely. If you disagree, explain why.

I already explained why. Getting a mislylnch on a powerrole is significantly better than getting a mislynch on someone they don't have an inclination toward. Now, the question of why they didn't kill him over night if that is true is a fair enough. Maybe they thought he might be protected since apparently so many people assumed he was a PR. I dunno. It's a decent point to make.

But getting a mislynch on a power role confirms innocents. That's worse than having the PR alive and the results unproven.

The two things that will screw a scum team in the end are confirmed innocents and power roles. This will put them in the position of wondering which will be more damaging. If it were me, I would be worried.

But that doesn't answer my point really. Say rofl does flip town. Say we have five scum and a mislynch today puts us in lylo. What do you think are the odds of the town lynching correctly in that situation even if you do have one confirmed vanilla? Do you feel a lot of people would look suspicious if that were the case?

I'm saying that if rofl flips town and they kill one of the confirmed innocents, we still have an innocent, and whatever other power roles are left. I'd like to hope someone has a result.

Plus, if rofl flips town, we should probably kill iamausername. I think odds are better that one of them is scum than iamausername was blocked.

[ekiM]

OK KMD, if Pooky is scum why is he voting for iam? And what about Yos, Zu, both prepping to vote for iam? Everyone else lining up to vote for iam was on the Xyl lynch. Does that tell you anything?

I think you haven't given a single reason for me as scum all game other than gut.

EK is town.

[Yosarian2]

I just think scum would rather go for a mislynch on somebody else, rather than construct a fake claim in order to lynch a power role, which would result in confirming two innocents. It's not 100%, but I just think Iam fakeclaiming is unlikely. If you disagree, explain why.

Well, except in Iam's original gambit, it wouldn't have resulted in "two confirmed innocents", since it looks like he was hoping to get me lynched first.

You're saying it's might be a 1-1 trade, but it's not really since we would also get two confirmed innocents in the bargain

You keep saying this, and it's still wrong. If ROFL is telling the truth, and is a cop, then we already effectively HAVE two confirmed innocents, or will whenever he dies, which is basically the same thing in principle. And if he is a cop, he will die, and fairly soon I expect; scum can't leave a cop around forever. You're talking about losing us a cop, and only getting in exchange information we already are guaranteed to get anyway.

[Kmd4390]

Unvote, Vote rofl

. ekiM actually raises a good point. One of the two needs to be lynched today anyway. Let's just lynch rofl and see what happens.

[Thesp]

Our choices are:
1)Rofl is scum
2)Iamausername was blocked
3)Iamausername is scum who decided it would be a good idea to fake claim out of nowhere

I would like everyone to say which of the above 1, 2, 3 they think is most likely and why.

The only reason we should lynch someone outside of rofl/iam is if people think iam was blocked. Or they just don't have the balls to deal with the situation.

While all 3 are conceivable, I think #1 is most likely, followed by #2 with #3 a distant last likelihood. However, you have failed to demonstrate that this necessarily entails that lynching the best guess as to scum in this particular situation is the best play. In fact, compelling arguments have been put forth that a third party lynch is not only viable, but perhaps

better

,such as one espoused by Yosarian2 (which closely emulates my thoughts):

If ROFL is telling the truth, and is a cop, then we already effectively HAVE two confirmed innocents, or will whenever he dies, which is basically the same thing in principle. And if he is a cop, he will die, and fairly soon I expect; scum can't leave a cop around forever. You're talking about losing us a cop, and only getting in exchange information we already are guaranteed to get anyway.

---

Let me put forth a case on why I think iamausername is likely being truthful here.

I'll also note that my town-hunting skills focus largely around people doing small things that are a natural part of being pro-town that are unlikely to be fabricated by scum:
1) His early distrust of roflcopter seems genuine, and his story of how he blocked roflcopter as a lone dissenter feels very natural, plausible and genuine. He sniped at roflcopter during D1, and gave even more pressure to him on D2, which is terribly consistent with a pro-town roleblocker who decided to take a shot at blocking scum on N1.
2) Later, he says this:

Pretending you have role info when you don't is scummy.

QFT.

Why aren't we lynching rofl again?

This seems incredibly consistent with how a pro-town player would act and post if they had indeed blocked someone N1, then that target vaguely suggests that they may have role info that the roleblocker would know would be impossible/extremely unlikely.

3) Furthermore, his reticence to follow through on a roflcopter lynch

also

seems far more likely to come from a pro-town player than from scum:

So, yeah, I don't have 100% damning evidence that rofl is scum, if I did, I would have just gone ahead and said so without waiting for a claim from him first. If you really think that necessitates a lynch on me, then I guess go ahead, but I don't believe that what I've done here has hurt the town.

By the way, we're not lynching rofl today. It would clearly be a better idea to lynch Yos, because he is definitely scum if rofl is scum, and on the off chance that rofl is actually telling the truth, we'd be lynching a vanilla rather than a cop.

This seems more hap-hazardly thought out than cold and calculated. iamausername seems aware that there's a possibility that we're screwed on a freakish N1 block, and sees some value in not lynching a claimed cop.

If roflcopter had planned on outing roflcopter's role, why do it in this manner? Why claim to be an X-shot roleblocker and

then push for someone other than roflcopter

? His final delivery is too haphazard and ephemeral to be as cold and calculated as a set-up fake claim here.

I don't see iamausername as scum. At all.

Moreover, I find the questioning of roflcopter re: the BridgesAndBaloons lynch to be intriguing - his behavior to B&B's claim is diametrically opposed to the approach to VP Baltar's claim. This doesn't seem very consistent for a pro-town Vanilla Cop throughout the game.

There's more, but this is the heart of it, and I don't want to clutter things further than necessary. My apologies for the length of this post, but I thought it was important.

---

I just think scum would rather go for a mislynch on somebody else, rather than construct a fake claim in order to lynch a power role, which would result in confirming two innocents. It's not 100%, but I just think Iam fakeclaiming is unlikely. If you disagree, explain why.

Well, except in Iam's original gambit, it wouldn't have resulted in "two confirmed innocents", since it looks like he was hoping to get me lynched first.

I'm disturbed by the thought that you think his push on you was a calculated gambit - I'm having a hard time imagining that you'd be lynched after the claims came out as they did. More importantly,

I'm having a hard time imagining that a calculated scum move would expect that a push for your lynch would be in any way effective or likely to succeed

. This is another thing that disturbs me - I'm incredibly distrustful of both of the players that have been "cleared" by roflcopter.

All that said, I think another night of both iamausername and roflcopter staying alive is more likely to be productive than counter-productive. I still think a Pooky lynch is incredibly likely to hit scum, particularly since he continues to give no reason for anyone to think he's town (while I can see some considerations for most other players in the game). I think Pooky is still the best lynch for today. If forced, I will vote for roflcopter over a no-lynch.

[charter]

Fine

unvote, vote Roflcopter

[mith]

Deadline:

Approximately 5.5 days from this post.

Vote Count:

7 to lynch.

roflcopter: 6 (charter, ekiM, elvis_knits, iamausername, Kmd4390, SerialClergyman)
iamausername: 2 (PookyTheMagicalBear, roflcopter)
SerialClergyman: 2 (VP Baltar, Yosarian2)
charter: 1 (zu_Faul)
Kmd4390: 1 (populartajo)
PookyTheMagicalBear: 1 (Thesp)

[populartajo]

WTF?

Rofl is town.

Big FOS : Charter and KMD.

Im growing more and more confident than both rolf and iam are town and we are set in a false dichotomy heading to a fail lose. There is no need to end the day when this is NO A 100% 1-1 and we also dont have a read or a solid opinion on players like kdm and pooky And like Thesp said, I think another night of both iamausername and roflcopter staying alive is more likely to be productive than counter-productive.

In the worse case, if you would assume a 1-1, then the the one we should be lynching is iam not the informational role, ffs. Are you guys even thinking?

[Thesp]

Fine
unvote, vote Roflcopter

This doesn't sound like someone who's convinced.

WTF?

Rofl is town.

Howso?

[charter]

I actually went back and reread rocossi today, and there were a lot of differences, granted we had like five obvscums there by page three, but there was a lot more interacting with many players in that game. Here, day one, he spends most of it lynching BAB, but there's virtually no quotes (except arguing with BAB) in any of his posts, whereas in rocossi there was. Granted, it's not very concrete, but it's enough that I can accept a rofl lynch.

I'm pretty much lost in this game, I really don't know if it's one of rofl/iaun, but it seems as if iaun isn't going to be lynched, and I don't really think there's going to be that many vanillas left anyway.

@Thesp, no, I'm not convinced at all.

[populartajo]

Rofl is town.

Howso?[/quote]

Fuck it. Im claiming. Hider. N1 I hided with rolf. N2 I hided with charter.

Breadcrumbs about rolf and charter being town are over the thread day 2 and today respectively. I can quote them if you want. And I know you are going to ask. This last big fos against charter was a last attempt to not be too obvious about me having information about rolf, but I guess the best play is to claim right now since no one is going to trust my rolf is town without more reason than gut read.

Unvote accordingly.

Also.

Confirm vote: KMD.

[charter]

unvote

Should we see if people targeted tajo on night one or two, and then if it failed? I suppose if you targeted him and it didn't fail, you should speak up. Probably keep it to yourself if it did fail.

[charter]

vote kmd

[charter]

Assuming we believe tajo, it means tajo, charter, rofl, yosarian, and VP are all town. That means there are four or five scum in
ekiM
elvis_knits
iamausername
Kmd4390
PookyTheMagicalBear, replacing alexhans N1
SerialClergyman
Thesp
zu_Faul

kmd and zu_faul are the ones I'd pick to be scum.

[ekiM]

Tajo, please explain your night choices.

Tajo, please explain why you don't now think iamausername is scum.

[ekiM]

And did you breadcrumb your targets before you hid with them?

unvote

[SerialClergyman]

I'm catching up with the posts. My net access is still intermittent.

I hate the hider claim because I was more and more happy with my position on rofl. I don't see scum fakeclaiming unless it's lylo.

I am starting to think a massclaim is in order. We already have a number of claimed roles, it's close to lylo and we might be able to break the setup if we coordinate night choices.

I'm going to re-read as much as I can tonight, given many of the arguments I was forming were trumped by tajo's claim.