California Trilogy: City of Angels - Off Stage (Game Over)

[MrJellyLee]

[PJ Posting]

*cough-Elmo-post-cough*

I would like to see some substantiation behind your claim that I was avoiding commentary on the leading wagons, when my

second post in the game

upon replacing made it clear what I thought about pretty much everybody, seeing as I made a full concordet vote list. Not only that, but I explained myself more fully in my

fourth

post of the game when GoofballsandBaloons directly asked me about my list.

I will fully admit: I wanted the town to focus more than they were on curiouskarmadog and Panzerjagger, because I honestly thought both Advocates were probably lying and I was flabbergasted that nobody was really talking about them Off Screen (where the focus was instead MafiaJin, Talilan and Hewitt).

I will also mention that Talilan was not "a relevant wagon” that required commentary for most of Day One since she was

On Screen

for most of Day One. But even then, I made it clear that I did not really suspect Talilan for questioning curiouskarmadog – which seemed to the main case against her – since

my

initial reaction was

also

to question curiouskarmadog.

[VP Baltar]

I ask a player to pick Heads or Tails. If the player is right, they win. If they are wrong, they get nightkilled.
The player picks Heads. It was the correct pick.
Why did my attempt to kill fail?

Think about this, DGB, and apply it to the WIFOM situation. Even though it was WIFOM, we still had a 50% chance of getting it right. We happened to get it right. That's why they failed.

Yeah, but I think she makes a valid point because of the 50/50 factor. It would have been the ideal situation for the scum to influence town toward the wrong decision and take zero blame for it because they were just "flipping a coin". Scum knew what the right and wrong doors were, so we do need to look at why it was a reasonably easy decision to pick the correct door. We also need to look at those who were excessively trying to cloud the decision and pick the wrong door (elmosaurian).

*or what DGB just said much more succinctly.

Stray idea popped into my head: if we are facing a cult and a mafia, the good or bad decisions we make on screen (or successful lynches) could determine who we face in end game. Personally, I would not want to have to root out a cult in the scenario. I have no idea if this is the case, but thought i would put it out there.

I also think elmosaurian needs to stay off screen if he's not required to go up there. His stance in the KY thing is highly illogical.

[Gaspar]

Bullshit. I thought he probably wasn't in the scum group pulling the strings, and unless you have some other explanation for the whole "screen actor's guild" thing, it looks like I was right. So don't pull that "oh how could you possibly think that" stuff with me; I used deductive logic to come to what was probably correct conclusion.

It seems to me that you're changing your tune. In your Post 244 of the other thread, you said (italic emphasis mine):
"Door #1 would be preferable

if we were confident that KY Krew was not a trustworthy chap and that he had planned all this out

, but I don't really know if I believe that right now. It just seems too obvious, like a setup. I'm leaning towards door #2. "

In clarification, you said:
"I am...conflicted.

Not long ago, I was quite confident she was not trustworthy. But when those who are not good people pick, as their advocate, the one who we all distrusted the most, it makes me wonder if perhaps we were not SUPPOSED to trust her. Perhaps I should just drink the wine in front of me, but...I am not confident of any train of logic that start by assuming those who are working against us made the most obvious choice possible."



BOTH of these posts indicate that you were starting to believe Krew was

trustworthy

. If that doesn't mean "protown," please enlighten me.

Furthermore, your current tune is

I thought he probably wasn't in the scum group pulling the string

IF YOU THOUGHT KREW MIGHT HAVE BEEN PART OF A THIRD PARTY, YOU SHOULD HAVE SAID SO AT THE TIME.

After the fact, you are saying "no, I just thought he wasn't part of the same scumgroup that made him an Advocate." But your posts at the time you "leaned towards Door #2" say "I think he might be trustworthy." There is an OCEAN of difference between these two. You're trying to cover, and I'm not buying it.

[Gaspar]

Yeah, but I think she makes a valid point because of the 50/50 factor. It would have been the ideal situation for the scum to influence town toward the wrong decision and take zero blame for it because they were just "flipping a coin". Scum knew what the right and wrong doors were, so we do need to look at why it was a reasonably easy decision to pick the correct door. We also need to look at those who were excessively trying to cloud the decision and pick the wrong door (elmosaurian).

Yes, in my Post 974, I mused on the same thing. I think it's probably our biggest point of interest right now. After DGB's explanation, I understand what she was saying, and I'm curious about it myself.

[Gaspar]

I will fully admit: I wanted the town to focus more than they were on curiouskarmadog and Panzerjagger, because I honestly thought both Advocates were probably lying and I was flabbergasted that nobody was really talking about them Off Screen (where the focus was instead MafiaJin, Talilan and Hewitt).

Here's the issue I have with believing that both Panzer and Locke were scum.

If I were teamed with the two of them, as scum, on Scene One, I almost certainly would have thought up a way to allow the "partial information" to lead the town to the wrong decision. I know there's a degree of WIFOM in this matter, but it makes no sense to me to have two scumbags both push the Good decision when we could construe a term as vague as "partial information" to lead the town to the Bad decision.

If Panzer and CKD are both scum, they are almost certainly of different alignments from one another. And right now I don't believe that there's a second Scientologist in this game (though I will readily admit that if there is, it's probably CKD).

[VP Baltar]

Yes, in my Post 974, I mused on the same thing. I think it's probably our biggest point of interest right now. After DGB's explanation, I understand what she was saying, and I'm curious about it myself.

Yeah, sorry about that. I typed my post up and walked away to make dinner before I read through it and posted it. You beat me to the punch.

[Bagel Eating Cowfrog]

Not liking elmosaurian right now especially his last post. Will elaborate when I can get to a computer

-dahill

[curiouskarmadog]

gone over the weekend..apparently a lot of shit has happened..catching up.

[curiouskarmadog]

finished reading On stage...good door one was chosen....getting caught up on this thread.

[Thesp]

It's been explained already, but it's worth reiterating:
KY Krew was made Advocate because he had already been outed as scum, and it reduced the Scene Two decision to complete WIFOM.

Eh. Yeah, that would be the simplest solution. Which is why I didn't buy it, it seemed too obvious.

what

[StarKiss]

Yeah. The rules also do say that there might or might not be other groups. But yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if "scientologist" is the main scum group

Then what's the 2nd scum group, kupo?
............
Woops, wrong game.

Basically, the biggest reason I doubted that KY was scum was just because-

Because you're mafia, right?

Jokes, jokes.

Then again, maybe not.

I didn't see scum making the most suspicious looking guy in the entire game the advocate if he was one of their own; it just dosn't make sense as a scum play.

You may have been on-screen, but we've already been over how convenient it was for them to make KY the advocate. He'd get to screw with everyone's head in regards to his door choice and whether it could be trusted.

Basically what BEC just said below your post.

The question is, why did they fail?

I think with Talilan stunting, it helped reassure the others on-screen whether Door #1 was good or not. Everyone knew KY was the lynch, so if Talilan was partnered with KY, it'd be 2-times suicidal for your faction to lead town into making a wrong decision, so that then both yourself {Talilan} & KY Krew are nailed as obvscum. Quite crippling... but anyway, that is why

they

failed. I don't think there was a chance for success anyway since KY was always planned to be swapped out.

Think about this, DGB, and apply it to the WIFOM situation. Even though it was WIFOM, we still had a 50% chance of getting it right. We happened to get it right. That's why they failed.

Well see, you'd figure, if we had enough scum on-camera, that they would exploit the inherent WIFOM of the situation to push their agenda. What is interesting is that there was so little interest in the wrong choice, door #2.

Maybe they stood back and wanted to test the waters first by seeing what the townies thought of the choices. That way, they can manipulate everyone based on how they felt about the current choices. I'm pretty sure there was at least 1 person (on-camera) who did the

consensus-question, sit back, observe

tactic without offering their stance on the issue first.

{Kise}

[ShadowLurker]

The appointing of Thesp, who's been very low key is odd. Addendum: Gaspar's explanation makes sense.

I support the firing of MafiaJin as I am more confident about ckd in that role.

I dislike the so overwhelmingly OMGUS back-and-forth between Talilan-elmosaurian/Glork. Talilan is clearly attacking them simply for them attacking Talilan and it’s honestly obnoxious. Neither side is really listening to each other and it’s becoming increasingly circular.

Yep, I was right, hewitt is scummy. The scum-team's making it really easy; throwing all their eggs in one basket and attacking us.

Big red X. That's not attacking you; that's saying that what you're arguing about has completely deviated from trying to find scum and become a question of "who is right".



Panzerjager is lurking quite a bit; I forget everytime he's offscene until he posts again.

Well it's a bit disappointing that all the scumhunting stopped as sono as KY Krew came Off Camera. The people Off Camera Day 3 will have their work cut out for them.

The lackluster of a day and being On Stage has weakened all my reads a bit but I'll make an advocate for who I trust to see Off Stage tomorrow as well as suspects next post.

[GoofballsAndBaloons]

Maybe they stood back and wanted to test the waters first by seeing what the townies thought of the choices. That way, they can manipulate everyone based on how they felt about the current choices. I'm pretty sure there was at least 1 person (on-camera) who did the

consensus-question, sit back, observe

tactic without offering their stance on the issue first.

I don't believe that at all. See, they could have gently steered to the wrong door. They would have totally gotten away with it. Unless they were (1) wimpy doormats not playing their win condition; (2) outnumbered to an extent that even gentle steering would have stood out or (3) that's what Elmosaurianscum tried to do anyway.

-DGB

[curiouskarmadog]

Quick skim before the read…
Looks like Door 1 was indeed the correctly choice and KY was a scientologist?..I assume that is anti-town?
Typing as reading from the beginning of Scene 2.

Scene 2 begins at post 722 (page 29…ugh) in main thread.

I also have no idea why ckd fired MafiaJin (particularly with that timing).

Answered this question after it was posted in the On stage thread, but will address again. I don’t trust MJ at all. I would have done it yesterday but, a.) would not have affected anything and b.) I didn’t know if scum got a kill in between scene was what was going to happen. I didn’t want to assume the role and be killed. As soon as the Scene started on stage..I fired.

Hmmm, a lot of discussion about not talking about the firing before the firing, yet, I was under the impression that the majority wanted him fired yesterday while in scene 1. So am I scummy for firing MJ? Was timing scummy? Why? Why not? Seems to me that every decision I have made so far in this game has been instantly attacked and painted as scummy, yet, every decision has been the correct one. (though we don’t know about MJ at this point, but I know my alignment, I don’t know MJ’s…from my point of view, it is the correct one)

KY lynch went very fast, but KY didn’t flip mafia…so this isn’t very telling.

Also, it doesn’t seem people have a firm hold on the rules and mechanics of the game….that doesn’t bode well.

KY, comes back and fake claims…so whatever scientologist is, it is anti-town…3rd party…cult maybe…doubtful?..need to check who was the first person who mentioned a cult..thought it was KY, remembered when I asked him about it, he became super vague.

Also, Tailan and MJ being put into the vacant roles make sense. It keeps the AP hidden….again, read the game mechanics. Speaking of not knowing the game mechanics, 907, makes me blush. I thought that the lynched was shown here but ON stage didn’t know…..

Ok scene 2 done.

But then CKD said that the mafia was the Mafia Actors Guild or some such, so eh.

Or some such?

Well, this also calls into question if ckd was telling the truth earlier about the scum team name. I don't see any reason for him to lie, but I also fail to see how a cult factors into the pre-destined endgame .

Why does KY flip call that into question? When you see a 3rd party in another game, do you automatically assume there is no mafia? Mr. Grey name is fitting…everything is not always black or white.
---
OK Scene 3 all of the following MUST GO (see rules)
Gaspar, elmosaurian , VP, shadowlurker, GB

I got to pick 5 (4 of which will go)….

Taking suggestions and opinions, might or might not use them, but would like to hear stances anyway.

I am not going this time…

We have slightly over 60 hours…so get your stances in now versus later.

[ShadowLurker]

On Camera: Gaspar, elmosaurian, VP Baltar, ShadowLurker, GoofballsandBalloons, FOUR OTHERS.

I'd like to see more from curiouskarmadog, MafiaJin, Panzerjager, Pooky, Thesp, and Thok. I'd recommend these 6 stay off stage along with Orbots for his job, and MrJellyLee/sottyrulez as I trust both to be protown. That would mean that Bagel Eating Cowfrog, hewitt, StarKiss, and Talilan go On Stage.

As for scum suspects, I think they're among our lurkers. I'd like to hear MafiaJin's reaction to being fired though and Panzer/Pooky/Thesp/Thok's thoughts on who is scum pronto.

[GoofballsAndBaloons]

I'd like for the stuntman to bring Elmosaurian back off-camera.

That's what I want for Xmas. Santa, I've been good.

-DGB

[Talilan]

(At work)
I havent had a chance to read what I missed off-stage yet. Would prefer to stay offstage to give us time to catch up. But if it's firm that we're going back onstage I guess that's okay we'll just have to read/post quickly.

~Talitha

[Gaspar]

It's been explained already, but it's worth reiterating:
KY Krew was made Advocate because he had already been outed as scum, and it reduced the Scene Two decision to complete WIFOM.

Eh. Yeah, that would be the simplest solution. Which is why I didn't buy it, it seemed too obvious.

Occam's Razor means nothing to you, I take it?

I would also like to see Elmosaurian taken off-camera by the stuntman. I think he's scum, and even if he is town, I no longer trust him to reason through any decisions that could affect endgame setup.

[GoofballsAndBaloons]

hello everyone! I'm back from like several weeks (maybe a month!? feels long . . .) of not posting in this game. I have been very busy and I definitely would have replaced out of this game if I was not in a hydra with DGB.

But I AM in a hydra with DGB so this gives me the chance to continue to play this game. I'm still busy so I'm not going to have a super active role in this game, but I will look around and point out anythings that I see.

-Bridges

[GoofballsAndBaloons]

There has continued to be no night kills. I'm bringing this up because I don't think the discussion on this has been fully explored.

Talillan 119

advocate(s) chosen by scum for subsequent scenes. They will still get the useful information whether they be scum or town. They are kind of like a weird version of night-kill choices for the scum.

Your word choice here seems to imply you know that scum don't have night kills. I just reread the rules (again. . .) and I couldn't find anything to suggest this.

Also: no-one died overnight. I suspect possibly making the wrong decision enables night-kills.

I also have no idea why ckd fired MafiaJin (particularly with that timing).

- ortolan

Interesting; if the [Something Else] alignment is indeed cult like, it would explain why we have had no deaths between scenes even though those are supposed to function like Nights.

I think that Scientology really does lend itself to being a cult. No offense to any scientologists here, but seirously.

ALSO cults really make sense with the Day 1 on stage talk about John Locke turning into a villian.

OMG wow I totally didn't think about this but now that I am it makes more and more sense that we have a cult. That implies a cult leader which means we should definitely lurker-hunt in the future. I mean, I'm not positive we have a cult here, but in case we do, we NEED to make sure that no one slides by.

Again I don't have much time to devote to this game, but I wanted to share what I discovered.

-Bridges

[StarKiss]

The rules state that there are "two main alignments: Innocent and [Something Else]." Based on that and what CKD said, I believe that one of two scenarios is likely:
1) CKD is also a Scientologist and simply lied about the mafia group's name. His mentioning of the mafia name "SMG" came after Krew's Scene One debacle, which could usefully serve to create this kind of confusion as we look in the wrong directions.

He referred to the recruiting faction as mafia? Interesting.. to be fair, I will wait and see what the name of this 2nd faction is before coming back to CKD's comment.

2) Krew/Cruise was a Scientologist, there is in fact a Screen Mafia Guild, Kruise was probably operating alone as a third party. If this is the case, we probably won't be able to find out anything useful about him unless he was in fact a cult-ish role. But as others have stated, I don't think he'd say "there's a cult" if he were a cultist/cult leader. It seems particularly self-destructive.

There are plenty of actors & actresses who are scientologists. What makes you think he's alone or [if you consider the cult-scenario] didn't recruit during phase 2?

I know there's a degree of WIFOM in this matter, but it makes no sense to me to have two scumbags both push the Good decision when we could construe a term as vague as "partial information" to lead the town to the Bad decision.

What if this was to make them both look good/pro-town/trustworthy? Wouldn't that be a reason to make two scumbags advocates?

Yes, a high degree of WIFOM. But ortolan once said that you should never allow ignorance to influence your play, so I got ma' eyes wide open.

I also think elmosaurian needs to stay off screen if he's not required to go up there. His stance in the KY thing is highly illogical.

Not liking elmosaurian right now especially his last post.

I smell a lynch-in-the-making!

I don't believe that at all. See, they could have gently steered to the wrong door. They would have totally gotten away with it. Unless they were (1) wimpy doormats not playing their win condition; (2) outnumbered to an extent that even gentle steering would have stood out or (3) that's what Elmosaurianscum tried to do anyway.

#'s 2 & 3... As we now see, picking what turned out to be the bad door is what earns elmosaurianscu-... ahem.. elmosaurian all the heat.

If

other anti-town were on-screen, they should have known how suicidal it was to pick door #2 since EVERYONE ELSE was picking door #1. Thing is, if you're alone in picking the wrong choice (hello, elmosaur), then everyone who stood on the right side will give you dirty looks.

In that case, any on-screen anti-town were smart, but that doesn't mean I'm opposed to looking at elmosaurian as a lynch ........... Is that an ad hom, elmo? If so, I apologize.

It means you're anti-town, though.

Also, Tailan and MJ being put into the vacant roles make sense. It keeps the AP hidden

I'm just going to throw this out there because it's been on my mind.. I've considered that the AP might be the mod/NPC. In the first 2 CT games, there were little mindscrews like the mod being Edmond Dantes, and the Zodiac Killer being Mr. Grey's assistant (NPC). Just.... wanted to throw that out there. There haven't been kills outside of lynching so far, and I'm thinking that there'd be no need for the AP (if one of us) to be secretive about their obv-innocent alignment unless they were in danger of being killed.

Now, this doesn't mean that if the AP is one of us that you should claim, because there's no telling what will go down in the Endgame. But, if in the Endgame there happens to be no form of elimination outside of lynching, I'd hold strong to the belief that the AP is not a player.

That would mean that Bagel Eating Cowfrog, hewitt, StarKiss, and Talilan go On Stage.

Bleh... I really hate having to catch up.

{Kise}

[StarKiss]

Actually, I think I've figured out why mafia/SMG chose KY Krew. They knew he looked scummy & wasn't with them. They must have thought that he was pro-town and would lead everyone to the right choice, but the town wouldn't believe him and would instead choose a bad door.

With that said, I'm seeing smart mafia here.

*twirls lollipop around in mouth*

{Kise}

[Gaspar]

He referred to the recruiting faction as mafia? Interesting.. to be fair, I will wait and see what the name of this 2nd faction is before coming back to CKD's comment.

CKD called the [Something Else] group the "Screen Mafia Guild" in this post

There are plenty of actors & actresses who are scientologists. What makes you think he's alone or [if you consider the cult-scenario] didn't recruit during phase 2?

Hunch, based in part on past CT games and the fact that I don't think a Cult/Mafia/Town would be balanced given how endgame is chosen. The rules state that endgame will consist of 2 [Something Else] actors and 5 Innocent actors. That goes completely out the window if there's a full-fledged cult, and I don't think the rules would deliberately mislead us like that.

The rules description of Endgame is the main thing that has me even considering my first scenario, where CKD is among the Scientologists.

What if this was to make them both look good/pro-town/trustworthy? Wouldn't that be a reason to make two scumbags advocates?

Not worth giving up a decision, IMO. Slight suspicion can be written off if the faked "partial information" is good enough, and the town makes a bad decision. Also, the Scene One advocates were chosen independent of alignment. Unless I'm mistaken, those were the only pre-selected Advocates (i.e., not chosen by scums). Given the astronomically small odds of Locke and Valentine both randomly being scums, and the passed opportunity to lead us to the wrong decision, I just cannot believe that they are both on the same scumteam.

But ortolan once said that you should never allow ignorance to influence your play

Ortolan cautioning against ignorance? How ironic.

[VP Baltar]

Why does KY flip call that into question? When you see a 3rd party in another game, do you automatically assume there is no mafia? Mr. Grey name is fitting…everything is not always black or white.

Eh, see it from the perspective of we don't have whatever information you claim to have. KY brought up the idea of a third party in the first place, which seems very very strange if he is third party, no? As I said above, however, I see no reason for you to bring up the mafia name if you didn't have that information. I'm not assuming there is no mafia, but I think it is safe to say those without your information would at least need to consider the many different options of what is going on.

Taking suggestions and opinions, might or might not use them, but would like to hear stances anyway.

I would like hewitt and panzer to stay off camera and receive some pressure. I was lazy a bit in this regard after KY was lynched, but they definitely deserve another look. They did absolutely nothing in the last scene, so I think participation or die should be the battle cry against them in the next scene. I think Talilan should stay off screen and stunt out elmosaurian as well. I'd like sottyrulz to be on camera in the next scene, as I'm certain they are town. GnB are another town pick for me.

[elmosaurian]

Bullshit. I thought he probably wasn't in the scum group pulling the strings, and unless you have some other explanation for the whole "screen actor's guild" thing, it looks like I was right. So don't pull that "oh how could you possibly think that" stuff with me; I used deductive logic to come to what was probably correct conclusion.

It seems to me that you're changing your tune. In your Post 244 of the other thread, you said (italic emphasis mine):
"Door #1 would be preferable

if we were confident that KY Krew was not a trustworthy chap and that he had planned all this out

, but I don't really know if I believe that right now. It just seems too obvious, like a setup. I'm leaning towards door #2. "

But, by post 294, after I had thought this through some more and discussed it with Elmo, I had changed my stance on this.

If I did think old-carrie was scum and this was all part of some master plan planned by the scum group as a whole, I would still choose door #2, because if they know we don't trust her, and if we think carrie-scum "wants" us to go for door #2 by monty-hall logic we would be expected to go door #1. But that kind of attempt to outguess those who know we are trying to outguess them isn't especially reliable, or even all that helpful, in my experience.

Basically, I didn't think KY was part of the scum group, AND I thought that if he was, door #2 would still be the correct choice.

In clarification, you said:
"I am...conflicted.

Not long ago, I was quite confident she was not trustworthy. But when those who are not good people pick, as their advocate, the one who we all distrusted the most, it makes me wonder if perhaps we were not SUPPOSED to trust her. Perhaps I should just drink the wine in front of me, but...I am not confident of any train of logic that start by assuming those who are working against us made the most obvious choice possible."



BOTH of these posts indicate that you were starting to believe Krew was

trustworthy

. If that doesn't mean "protown," please enlighten me.

I did. I thought that was pretty clear; I did think Krew was probably pro-town. Not so much because of his actions, but because I thought that the scum wouldn't make him the advocate if he was one of their own.

If we're assuming "Scientology" was not the "something else" group, like you apparently think now, then he probably didn't actually know which was the right door and which was the wrong door. If so, then that means there was only a 33% chance door 1 was right, and we just got really, really lucky there.

Furthermore, your current tune is

I thought he probably wasn't in the scum group pulling the string

IF YOU THOUGHT KREW MIGHT HAVE BEEN PART OF A THIRD PARTY, YOU SHOULD HAVE SAID SO AT THE TIME.

After the fact, you are saying "no, I just thought he wasn't part of the same scumgroup that made him an Advocate." But your posts at the time you "leaned towards Door #2" say "I think he might be trustworthy." There is an OCEAN of difference between these two. You're trying to cover, and I'm not buying it.

I thought he wasn't scum, BECAUSE I thought he wasn't part of the scum group pulling the strings. At the time, I was assuming there was probably only scum and town, so I was assuming that meant he was likely town.

I will admit that the thought of a third party scum group did cross my mind, considering how anti-town he had been acting, but I didn't really think it was that likely.