/in-Vitational Game 4 (Game Over!)

[ekiM]

I missed iam's post there. I see what you're saying if you assume a rational roflscum, but I've seen little evidence to support that conclusion. So I see why you might come up with the idea to lynch yos instead, but it's really overthinking the situation. If one of you and rofl isn't scum, we lost already.

(Also you quoted Elvis as me once.)

[mith]

Vote Count:

7 to lynch.

charter: 2 (elvis_knits, zu_Faul)
iamausername: 2 (Kmd4390, roflcopter)
roflcopter: 2 (iamausername, SerialClergyman)
SerialClergyman: 2 (VP Baltar, Yosarian2)
Kmd4390: 1 (populartajo)
populartajo: 1 (charter)
VP Baltar: 1 (Thesp)

Not Voting: 2 (ekiM, PookyTheMagicalBear)

[elvis_knits]

I'm wondering if the scum team was trying to smoke out the hider.

What would be the point? Scum can't kill a hider directly, so knowing who it is wouldn't be in any way useful to scum.

I guess you're right. I mean, scum could be sacrificing you to try to lynch the hider. But 1 for 1 isn't great. It doesn't seem that likely.

---

I guess when I think through all the possibilities, it is most likely that rofl is scum gambitting to save buddy yos. And they're likely lovers. Or yos is lovers with someone else and rofl took the chance to save scum lovers. Otherwise it doesn't make sense for rofl to put his neck out there.

I am still slightly resistant to that idea because I <3 rofl and I haven't thought he was scum all game. But if he flips town, then we have two confirmed innocents in yos and VP. And if he flips scum then we may get a lover suicide in Yos, or we lynch yos tomorrow and we get whoever his lover is to suicide. Because if rofl is scum, Yos probably is too. No other reason for rofl to gambit like that.

In both scenarios if rofl is scum, Yos is probably a scum lover (with rofl or someone else). So I do see where iam was coming from with the lynch Yos idea. Although I think it makes more sense to lynch rofl first. I feel like I have been drinking the kool-aid though

[ekiM]

I thought of one rationale for roflscum claiming vanilla result on yostown - roflscum figured iamtown had something strong against him, and decided he was likely going down today. Saw 2 town PRs, plus the train guys, and figured based on the mafia team there are few town PRs left and decided to gamble by claiming vanilla cop rather than regular cop, to tie himself to Yos. It's less likely than both being scum, but it argues against the idea that they must be the same alignment and so lynching Yos is just the same as lynching rofl.

[elvis_knits]

No I think we still have to lynch rofl first because if we're wrong we atleast get two confirmed innocents.

And I don't think roflscum would claim innocent on yostown because he softclaimed out of nowhere yesterday before iam was gunning for him, or seemed to have info. Unless roflscum was trying to get support from Yos, and also crumb a power role. But that just seems like a really gambitty, dangerous thing to do if you don't have to. And the only reason I can think of for rofl "having to" do it is if yos is a mafialover.

Basically I think either:

1)rofl is town, and either iam is lying for some reason or was roleblocked

or

2)rofl is scum, yos is mafialover (with rofl lover or other lover, but prob rofl).

But we have to lynch rofl, because if we lynch Yos and he's town, we still don't know anyone's allignment for sure. Only lynching rofl will give us two innocents even if he's town.

[Kmd4390]

If rofl is scum, this would not differentiate that night from any other night. scumrofl would not know he was jailed.

So if this is the only plausible explanation, how is your evidence against Rofl not damning?

If you accept the premise that rofl and Yos must either both be town or both be scum, it makes perfect sense. And I still maintain that it makes no sense for scumrofl to gamble on Yos being vanilla. There is absolutely no benefit to doing that instead of claiming regular cop, and there's no drawback to claiming regular cop instead. So there is no reason for rofl to take that risk, unless it wasn't a risk, because he already knew Yos would claim vanilla, because Yos is his scum partner.

The whole 'lynch Yos instead' thing was a stray thought that occurred to me while I was typing up my claim post, I thought (and still do think) it made sense, so I added it in. I am totally regretting that thought at this point because apparently it makes me scum, somehow, but whatever, if I have to be lynched first to start the house of cards falling, so be it.

It just makes more sense to lynch someone who should be caught scum than to lynch the player who you are connecting to the "caught" scum.

If I were in iamausername's claimed position I'd definitely be staking the game on rofl being scum. I wouldn't be thinking "well if he IS telling the truth and we only lynch vanilla yos, maybe we can still win somehow...". It's just so marginal. Also, if you think they're lovers why do you care which we kill?

/agree.

Also, annoying white screen. I'm not liking this...

Tag fixed. - Mod

[SerialClergyman]

I wanted to have a lot of ceremony about this but I'm voting rofl already.

For me it comes down to the benefit of the lynch coupled with my read. Are VP Baltar, Yos2 and rofl all town? gut has said no all game, I see no overwhelming reason to go against it now. And when all is said and done, rofl's flip gives us either two confirmed innocent vanillas (which is better for causing NK angst amongst scum than PRs) or it gives us 2 or possibly 3 scum if lovers are involved.

Also, if VP is town why has he just posted the odd tiny post? I have had my mind BLOWN from these claims and all of the quiet people earn my suspicion.

confirm vote roflcopter

[Thesp]

I join the several voices expressing confusion at the thought of a Yosarian2 wagon at this point.

The thing I do not like about this whole thing is that iamausername forced the claim of two powerroles, rofl and himself, which has resulted in no clear plan or damning evidence.

I mean, if iamausername is a jailkeeper who jailed rofl night 1, he had to hope that rofl would claim a result for N1, and then he could say "NO YOU LIAR YOU WERE JAILED YOU'RE SCUM DIE NAO KTHNXBI." (I may have misspelled the internetz lingo there).

Yet when rofl claims a result N1, iamausername says "hey maybe I was blocked. Let's lynch your innocent result to make sure."

WTF

While I agree with this, I don't think it leads to a conclusion of IAmAUsername as being scum.

I don't know what I want to do at this point. I'm tempted to just lynch charter instead.

This made me giggle with appreciation.

I personally think if there is a mafia roleblocker who happened to block IAUN N1 and not rofl N2, the game is essentially gone. It's so ridiculous to pick that it's not worth worrying about. So I think we have to assume someone is lying. Provided there aren't 6 scum, we should have two lynches, so in the end, the correct decision is going to save us one mislynch.

I disagree with this. I think it's mildly plausible on one end, and on the other end, I think it's better not to puruse at this moment in time. If roflcopter is telling the truth, let the scum figure out what to do with him. If he's lying, it will come out. (I think both have appeared pretty genuine either way in this.) If we were really going to go with a "let's lynch one of them based on utility", IAmAUsername would be the clear lynch-winner there, but I don't think he's lying (I don't see why scum-IAAU would have played this out like he has). If anything, I think roflcopter is more suspicious here, but I don't think lynching him today is worthwhile.

I think a

Pooky

lynch is the most worthwhile. If forced to choose between IAAU and roflcopter, I'd pick roflcopter, but I don't think he's the best lynch today.

Unvote: VP Baltar, Vote: PookyTheMagicalBear

.

[SerialClergyman]

I don't get that at all.

To my mind you're opening yourself up for a townflip on a third party and then we're in a lylo situation with a 50/50. At least if we get rofl or iam wrong, we'll then have a scum lynch and a lot of info.

And the only reason you wouldn't is if there was a mafia roleblcoker (who would have unlimited shots) who would have blocked IAUN N1 and noone N2. Surely that's hugely unlikely.

[Thesp]

I don't get that at all.

To my mind you're opening yourself up for a townflip on a third party and then we're in a lylo situation with a 50/50. At least if we get rofl or iam wrong, we'll then have a scum lynch and a lot of info.

And the only reason you wouldn't is if there was a mafia roleblcoker (who would have unlimited shots) who would have blocked IAUN N1 and noone N2. Surely that's hugely unlikely.

What suggests they would have blocked no one night 2? Also, why would Pooky flip town? (I've seen diddlysquat to suggest this would be the case.) Also, do you think the night would bring us some more info on today's situation?

I'm not convinced this is an either/or situation as you have put it.

[SerialClergyman]

I'm not standing up for Pooky or charter - it's possible either would flip town or scum. But when you have a 1/2 chance and 2 chances, I don't know why you wouldn't take it when the alternative is guessing on the rest.

True, they could have blocked someone else except a) noone else has claimed being blocked, b) roflcopter wasn't blocked despite being an obvious PR to scum. So if you're a roleblocker, and for some reason decide to block IAUN, then N2 you choose not to kill rofl for some reason - maybe fear of protects. but why wouldn't you block him?? Zero reason I can think of.

I can't imagine what a townpooky or towncharter flip would bring us tomorrow. Especially compared to the obvious bountiful info that, say, a rofl flip (scum or town) would give us.

[Thesp]

I'm not standing up for Pooky or charter - it's possible either would flip town or scum. But when you have a 1/2 chance and 2 chances, I don't know why you wouldn't take it when the alternative is guessing on the rest.

I think the chance of Pooky flipping scum is greater than the chances of roflcopter flipping scum, and I think the perils of lynching roflcopter incorrectly

today

outweigh the usefulness of lynching him today.

[SerialClergyman]

I can't agree. Unless you find a way around the roleblocker issue, a lynch of rofl or iam gives us a surefire scum lynch either today or tomorrow, plus a clusterfuck of info. Taking a stab at a random other play isn't worth it, imo.

[Thesp]

I can't agree. Unless you find a way around the roleblocker issue, a lynch of rofl or iam gives us a surefire scum lynch either today or tomorrow, plus a clusterfuck of info. Taking a stab at a random other play isn't worth it, imo.

I respectfully disagree. (I think a roleblock of IAAU on N1 is plausible, though unlikely.) You haven't convinced me that Pooky is "random"

at all

, though you keep suggesting it is.

[SerialClergyman]

If you want to keep insinuating that I'm defending Pooky, you might as well argue the same about charter when I argued against that yesterday. I'm trying to avoid the argument about who the third party is because then we lose sight of the point of what we're trying to discuss. No matter who it is we can't be as sure about it as we would about rofl and IAUN.

(I think a roleblock of IAAU on N1 is plausible, though unlikely.)

I think you're missing the point - EVEN IF there was a roleblock on IAUN (which is plausible but unlikely), there would ALSO have to be a roleblock on someone other than rofl on night two, which makes no sense if rofl is town and the scum knew his softclaiming was legit.

[Thesp]

Informal poll - who thought

before last night

that roflcopter was softclaiming role information? (This will be helpful, I think.)

I didn't.

[VP Baltar]

I'm not convinced this is an either/or situation as you have put it.

I pretty much agree with this. I've been thinking about it quite a bit today, and I'm not sure if I'm comfortable pursuing SC's stance of lynch away and assume one of them is lying. The ramifications if you are wrong could be game over.

I mean, as I said before, I could see a rofl scum using my vanilla claim to back up his own claim, but it seems like that would be extraordinarily risky to do since he claimed first and stood a chance of being countered.

[SerialClergyman]

Ah - there's our fundamental minunderstanding, I think.

I absolutely did, iam had two good quotes about it earlier. And elvis asked me if I knew what a breadcrumb was. And Xyl and I were talking about it jsut before his death, where I said rofl is either a PR or scum. My suspicion of the poll would be that most, like me, thought he was softclaiming before last night.

[VP Baltar]

Informal poll - who thought

before last night

that roflcopter was softclaiming role information? (This will be helpful, I think.)

I didn't.

I didn't. I've seen several games where rofl plays his "this person is town" game. He does the same thing when he calls people scum too (and often to good accuracy from what I've seen). So, no, I figured he was just playing his usual gut style.

[SerialClergyman]

VP - you're so scum imo.

But leaving that aside, explain to me why rofl wasnt' roleblocked N2. As soon as I get a good answer for that I'll entertain a third party lynch.

[VP Baltar]

How many games have you played with rofl before SC?

[SerialClergyman]

Two

[VP Baltar]

And you've never seen him play like this? Even in Emerald City he played like this to some extent (though I believe Mastin altered several players' styles in that game).

Did you think he had a guilty on Mastin in that game when he declaratively said he was scum from the start?

[Yosarian2]

I personally think if there is a mafia roleblocker who happened to block IAUN N1 and not rofl N2, the game is essentially gone.

Not really.

If they are both town, and we don't lynch either one of them today, then there's a chance that one or the other would be able to confirm themselves tonight, and there's also a chance the mafia will feel the need to kill one of them tonight. It's probably not that likely that Iamusername was blocked by a scum roleblocker, though.

Also, I'm not liking the "lynch rofl and then if he's town we have two confirmed innocents" camp here. If rofl is town, then if we don't lynch him, we're likely to either get another confirmed innocent tomorrow or else force the scum to use their kill on him. If someone really thinks he's scum, then that's one thing, but you don't lynch a cop just to find out if he's telling the truth, that's insane.

Between the two of them, though, I think Iamusername is significantly scummier. His whole "let's lynch Yos first" plan really looks more like a scum move then like a town move; he lynches me, then when I come up vanilla, town wouldn't know anything more tommorow then they know now, and Iamusername is free to either go with a "rofl guessed right but he's still lying scum" gambit or else a "gee, I guess I did get roleblocked" gambit. The whole thing just feels like a carefully planned setup.

[SerialClergyman]

And you've never seen him play like this? Even in Emerald City he played like this to some extent (though I believe Mastin altered several players' styles in that game).

Did you think he had a guilty on Mastin in that game when he declaratively said he was scum from the start?

I know rofl's style, but my read on him isn't based on his style (although I see subtle differences.) Are you asking me why I find him scummy or are you asking me whether I thought his confidence meant he was softclaiming?