/in-Vitational Game 4 (Game Over!)

[Kmd4390]

A isn't very likely.
B, he wouldn't have gotten a result.
C makes no sense. "I'm gonna lynch the cop's innocent result in case I was RB'd". No.
D, I've followed. I'm pretty sure I'm right.

[iamausername]

iam, why not being up role info earlier when Xyl was about to be lynched and you had pretty damning evidence against rofl?

this wouldn't have stopped rofl getting an innocent result if he was a Hider, and for that reason, I wasn't going to do this counterclaim thing until I spotted this here:

i don't like the return to the vp baltar wagon. i think he's telling the truth about his role.

which is clearly specifically crumbing the Vanilla Cop role.

This quote didn't appear until after Xyl was lynched.

A isn't very likely.

I agree.

B, he wouldn't have gotten a result.

If rofl is scum, this would not differentiate that night from any other night. scumrofl would not know he was jailed.

C makes no sense. "I'm gonna lynch the cop's innocent result in case I was RB'd". No.

If you accept the premise that rofl and Yos must either both be town or both be scum, it makes perfect sense. And I still maintain that it makes no sense for scumrofl to gamble on Yos being vanilla. There is absolutely no benefit to doing that instead of claiming regular cop, and there's no drawback to claiming regular cop instead. So there is no reason for rofl to take that risk, unless it wasn't a risk, because he already knew Yos would claim vanilla, because Yos is his scum partner.

The whole 'lynch Yos instead' thing was a stray thought that occurred to me while I was typing up my claim post, I thought (and still do think) it made sense, so I added it in. I am totally regretting that thought at this point because apparently it makes me scum, somehow, but whatever, if I have to be lynched first to start the house of cards falling, so be it.

[SerialClergyman]

This:

3. In this post, rofl says that Claus has a solid case against Yos, but that Yos doesn't fit as a partner of BaB. So why, when BaB did NOT flip scum, has rofl gone ahead and started acting like he is confirmed town anyway? I think his post here was an attempt to placate Claus and push the BaB wagon through to mislynch, because he clearly had no intention of actually following up on this suspicion of Yos.

thats a very narrowminded view of what could possibly cause me to change my opinion between the end of day one and the beginning of day two

and this:

i was under the impression that xyl had understood the implied message the first time i told him to stop voting for yos, but apparently the tidal wave of people who demand more explanation has emboldened him to go ahead and pretend he doesn't catch my drift either.

are the clearest examples, I think.

When asked about rofl's softclaims, these where the two that you quoted. They were both before Xyl's death.

[iamausername]

Yeah, but they're just generic "innocent result on Yos" softclaims, not specifically "I am a Vanilla Cop" softclaims. So there was no reason to assume that rofl wasn't a Hider at that point.

And I didn't bring up the more specific softclaim from today when Thesp asked, because I didn't want rofl to know I'd seen it, since I figured that might affect his claim.

[elvis_knits]

WHAT A BOONDOGGLE

[SerialClergyman]

I don't even have to know what a boondoggle is to know that I agree with elvis.

[ekiM]

unvote

. Clusterfuck.

---

If you're both town and scum fluked a roleblock of iamausername N1 and inexplicably didn't try to kill or block rofl last night, then we are utterly screwed at this point. Not worth worrying about.

If I were in iamausername's claimed position I'd definitely be staking the game on rofl being scum. I wouldn't be thinking "well if he IS telling the truth and we only lynch vanilla yos, maybe we can still win somehow...". It's just so marginal. Also, if you think they're lovers why do you care which we kill?

That said, I don't see why iamascum would've brought up the Yos2 lynch suggestion unless he thought it really was a good idea - surely he wouldn't think he could trick the town into following something he thought was bad. So I think whatever his alignment is, he must truly believe Yos-lynch is the way for town to go if iam's claim is believed.

---

iamausername, you said rofl would claim cop if Yos was town, so he didn't have to gamble on Yos not being a power role. But didn't you say he was already crumbing vanilla cop?

---

"in addition i agree with what yos said, he is town." is a reasonable breadcrumb. Isn't obvious, except with hindsight. If you had been NKed and flipped vanilla cop, we would've gone back and picked up that crumb.

Similarly "i don't think there's any chance that ojanen investigated baltar" as your first post of the day would be a good breadcrumb (if you hadn't already softclaimed...).

I'm less convinced of the goodness of these:

"you should not be voting for him."
"serial is chainsawing for kmd hard, and at this point attacking yos is a scumtell."
"the problem is your motivation for asking me to be clearer on why i think yos2 is town. you've already stated that you think I'M town, and you're making it very clear by your statements that you won't accept any reason to think yos2 is town other than some kind of role based information. there is no way for me to answer without benefiting scum. either i confirm myself as a power role, or i confirm myself as not having role info on yos2, meaning you can continue on your merry way trying to lynch him and the scum don't have to worry about nking me. this is why i didn't answer at all, and instead voted you, because the very act of trying to get further information out of me on the subject was scummy."
"[xyl] should know better than to vote for yos again at this point."
"thats a very narrowminded view of what could possibly cause me to change my opinion between the end of day one and the beginning of day two"
"i was under the impression that xyl had understood the implied message the first time i told him to stop voting for yos, but apparently the tidal wave of people who demand more explanation has emboldened him to go ahead and pretend he doesn't catch my drift either."
"let me make this clear one more time. yos is not scum."

roflcopter, why did you telegraph that you had some sort of role based info on Yos?

[SerialClergyman]

I don't understand why scumIAUN would force a claim when he did.

this is the votecount at the time.

Kmd4390: 2 (elvis_knits, roflcopter)
PookyTheMagicalBear: 2 (Kmd4390, populartajo)
roflcopter: 2 (iamausername, SerialClergyman)
SerialClergyman: 2 (VP Baltar, Yosarian2)
VP Baltar: 2 (ekiM, Thesp)
charter: 1 (zu_Faul)

So why fakeclaim at that point? Just for the hell of it to try and get a lynch up? He can't have been protecting himself or anyoneelse. No wagon had momentum. He's smart enough to know that even if everyone believed him he'd surely be the next lynch.

[elvis_knits]

The thing I do not like about this whole thing is that iamausername forced the claim of two powerroles, rofl and himself, which has resulted in no clear plan or damning evidence.

I mean, if iamausername is a jailkeeper who jailed rofl night 1, he had to hope that rofl would claim a result for N1, and then he could say "NO YOU LIAR YOU WERE JAILED YOU'RE SCUM DIE NAO KTHNXBI." (I may have misspelled the internetz lingo there).

Yet when rofl claims a result N1, iamausername says "hey maybe I was blocked. Let's lynch your innocent result to make sure."

WTF

I do not like that iam forced a claim that he knew would not be definite even in the best of circumstances. Or that he formulated a plan to lynch an innocently-investigated townie.

I'm not sure what iam's motivation for doing this could be. I consider him to be generally a very smart player, and I wouldn't expect him to make these mistakes (town or scum... since I think it is not to his advantage either way). The only way I can see it being to his advantage is if he's scum and the scum team was worried that rofl was the hider. They can't kill the hider unless they target the player the hider is hiding with, or if the hider chooses to hide with scum. And iam has brought up the hider role a couple times now since forcing rofl to claim. I'm wondering if the scum team was trying to smoke out the hider. Maybe this whole line of thought is WIFOM, but it's the only one that makes sense to me, outside of just plain error (which is possible, everyone makes mistakes... I just consider iam to be smarter than most).

Oh, and another thing, I have to look back at this, but did serial just bring up the possibility of mafialovers like it was a certainty? Because I don't think we've talked about there being mafialovers at all. Personally, I have thought about it, hoped for it, prayed for it, and thought it was quite likely since we had the magic train in the game. It would balance the game nicely I think, to have the suiciding magic train with scum lovers on the other side.

[SerialClergyman]

I like Ekim's post.

[elvis_knits]

Oh iam brought up mafialovers first, since his theiry is that rofl and yos are lovers. Sorted.

[SerialClergyman]

but did serial just bring up the possibility of mafialovers like it was a certainty?

I haven't looked, but no. IAUN refers to Yos and rofl being lovers as a reason for lynching Yos2, so you may have seen a post where I refer to that.

I do not like that iam forced a claim that he knew would not be definite even in the best of circumstances

I disagree with this bit. If I was a jailkeeper who had jailed rofl and he was breadcrumbing that hard he had an innocent result night 1, I would have claimed. I agree totally about the lynching Yos2 thing though. I'd be pushing for a rofl lynch.

The hider theory is interesting.. In the two games I've played with IAUN there's been a hider in one and a hider fakeclaim in the other, so he might ahve them on the brain..

[VP Baltar]

I disagree with this bit. If I was a jailkeeper who had jailed rofl and he was breadcrumbing that hard he had an innocent result night 1, I would have claimed. I agree totally about the lynching Yos2 thing though. I'd be pushing for a rofl lynch.

Except in the chance that they are both town (which he clearly considered) it was an awful play. I won't elaborate too much, but I'm sure you can imagine how scum could spin this whole incident in their favor, especially since we are uncertain how far away lylo is.

[iamausername]

If I were in iamausername's claimed position I'd definitely be staking the game on rofl being scum. I wouldn't be thinking "well if he IS telling the truth and we only lynch vanilla yos, maybe we can still win somehow...". It's just so marginal. Also, if you think they're lovers why do you care which we kill?

If they're any sort of scum, it doesn't matter which we kill first. The point is that it's better to lynch Yos if they're

not

scum, however unlikely that may be.

iamausername, you said rofl would claim cop if Yos was town, so he didn't have to gamble on Yos not being a power role. But didn't you say he was already crumbing vanilla cop?

He didn't crumb vanilla cop until today, after there was a claimed vanilla for him to investigate last night. And all that means is that he had already decided to claim vanilla cop at the start of the day. It doesn't change the fact that that would be an extremely stupid decision if Yos was town.

I'm wondering if the scum team was trying to smoke out the hider.

What would be the point? Scum can't kill a hider directly, so knowing who it is wouldn't be in any way useful to scum.

IAUN refers to Yos and rofl being lovers as a reason for lynching Yos2

No I didn't. Those were two entirely separate trains of thought. Yos being rofl's lover is an explanation for why he decided to defend him so rabidly, it's got nothing to do with the reason I thought a Yos lynch would be a good idea.

[elvis_knits]

I do not like that iam forced a claim that he knew would not be definite even in the best of circumstances

I disagree with this bit. If I was a jailkeeper who had jailed rofl and he was breadcrumbing that hard he had an innocent result night 1, I would have claimed. I agree totally about the lynching Yos2 thing though. I'd be pushing for a rofl lynch.

Yeah, I mean, he should be pushing for a rofl lynch. Because he had to know from the beginning that he could have been blocked. If I were him, I imagine myself saying "rofl is almost certainly scum. Unless I was roleblocked, he is scum. Let's lynch him. If he's town we atleast have his two innocent investigations. So that will confirm people which is awesome, even if we are screwed by a block on me."

The hider theory is interesting.. In the two games I've played with IAUN there's been a hider in one and a hider fakeclaim in the other, so he might ahve them on the brain..

Maybe. I just know that mafia can't nightkill the hider. Well, they can, but basically only accidentally.

[iamausername]

There's one thing that has been made abundantly clear at this point: everyone thinks my "lynch Yos" plan is stupid, so it's going to be rofl or me.

Unvote, Vote: roflcopter

[elvis_knits]

I don't know what I want to do at this point. I'm tempted to just lynch charter instead.

[ekiM]

If the scumteam talked N2 and were worried that rofl was a hider then they probably would've changed their minds when he crumbed that he had an innocent on VP. I doubt a hider would hide with someone who had just been saved by a derailing like that.

[SerialClergyman]

I am also mulling it over and won't plant my vote tonight for sure. There's a lot to consider.

But why would you suggest lynching a third party?

I personally think if there is a mafia roleblocker who happened to block IAUN N1 and not rofl N2, the game is essentially gone. It's so ridiculous to pick that it's not worth worrying about. So I think we have to assume someone is lying. Provided there aren't 6 scum, we should have two lynches, so in the end, the correct decision is going to save us one mislynch.

I think in that situation you have to pick one of the sides and hope you guess right. A third party lynch doesn't make much sense to me.

[ekiM]

Also, re: lovers. They wouldn't have to be lovers together, for any scum member to be concerned for the safety of each of the lovers.

[elvis_knits]

I guess you're right. I just am having a hard time choosing. I guess the right choice is to lynch rofl, but I think he's town. Therein lies my problem.

[ekiM]

I think Elvis was being ironic.

Probing rofl's motivation more...

If rofl is town, I understand why he would breadcrumb his results. I don't understand why he'd start denouncing anyone who voted or suspected Yos, when he was never under heavy pressure.

If rofl is scum and Yos is scum, again I don't see why he would resort to such drastic measures as forcing himself into a softclaim to protect a buddy not in real danger.

If rofl is scum and Yos is town, and he was just setting up a possible later fakeclaim, why not just leave the crumbs? Softclaiming just put the issue front-and-center.

[ekiM]

Just so we don't forget, Pooky and Tajo have been criminally absent for most of the game.

[SerialClergyman]

Ekim wins an internet for having some really solid observations.

I actually had the opposite reaction to you. Of the claims, they've both made sense and been possible (minus a few questions that are dicey - why iam didn't claim earlier and why rofl went to such lengths to protect VP) but iam has this silly thing about Yos2, and you have to adjust your reaction because he had the advantage of the second claim and could thus tailor his claim.

But that goes against my iam town rofl suspicious read all game, and it goes against iam having no reason to counterclaim as scum.

So I'm in the same dillema from a different angle.

[SerialClergyman]

EBWOP: The majority of that post was addressing elvis, and it should read why rofl went to such lengths to protect yos2.