Newbie 835: Game Over

[YamiJoey]

I've just checked that game and it's not actually over yet. That player is still alive, and I simply assumed it was the end of the game. (The game has lasted a hell of a lot longer than most of our mini-games, which is a good sign, really.)

It seems an awful lot like you're going back to your Too Townie argument.

Not true. I'm simply trying to establish why you're not dead, and I do understand your point about not wanting to simply miss the Night Hit because Mafia were greedy, but I will stress to the rest of the Town that this should not be overlooked, and I hope you can understand that. As a new Mafia player, I'd be trying to ensure my own survival rather than play for a good late game (That's what I did on my first game, probably second, too.)

YJ

[Webz]

Who do people think is the most scummy at the moment?
I think YamiJoey, because his hammer was so scummy.

Also, I'm uncomfortable with kirby having more votes than him. Just to not misrepresent the town's feelings on the issue, because he is under the spotlight more than kirb, and they both are much more than anyone else (I'm not saying that this is a good thing. It's probably bad.)

vote:YamiJoey

[Webz]

It seems an awful lot like you're going back to your Too Townie argument.

Not true. I'm simply trying to establish why you're not dead, and I do understand your point about not wanting to simply miss the Night Hit because Mafia were greedy, but I will stress to the rest of the Town that this should not be overlooked, and I hope you can understand that.

I doubt that many people here, if they were mafia, would have nightkilled me. Anyway, just because I was acting townie (to you, at least) doesn't mean that the mafia would think that think the same thing. What if my single living case that was alive on after AA was lynched was wrong *gasp*? Maybe Kirby is town, and mafia are gunning for a quick Kirby lynch. This is further backed by the fact that they lynched HP, who Kirby fought with, leading to suspicion against Kirby. There are countless reasons why they could not want to lynch me, and some are right in your face.

Simply, if you discount EVERYTHING else apart from the possibility that we have a doc, then the likeliness that I was doc protected last night, if I am as obvious a target as you paint, would probably be closer to 40% than 30%. 50% likely no doc, and they could be protecting a different person, obviously.

I simply don't see the obviousness of my lynch. And since not lynching me automatically puts me in the spotlight, it makes it an even less obvious lynch.

I'm not saying that it should be overlooked. I'm just saying that it's a null-tell if I ever saw one, because saying "I think that on night one there was a 50/50 chance of him getting lynched, but he didn't" leads nowhere. Also, it is something that I have no control over. However, I'm using my own fine-toothed comb, so go ahead.

As a new Mafia player, I'd be trying to ensure my own survival rather than play for a good late game (That's what I did on my first game, probably second, too.)

I don't get your last part. I assume you mean "mafia" as in scum, rather than the game. Because if you're talking about the game, I don't care about my own survival. I care about a town victory. If you mean scum, you're saying the payoff for "acting" very townie is not having a good mafia lategame, right? Why? I don't get it.

But in a hypothetical situation, if you were mafia, would you have nightkilled me? Why?

If you were mafia, YJ, then you could have set this up. It seems that you might be both the mafia that set this up, and the townie that's pulling it off. It just seems much too easy to do, and it draws attention from yourself as the main suspect right at the moment.

[YamiJoey]

Who do people think is the most scummy at the moment?
I think YamiJoey, because his hammer was so scummy.

Also, I'm uncomfortable with kirby having more votes than him. Just to not misrepresent the town's feelings on the issue, because he is under the spotlight more than kirb, and they both are much more than anyone else (I'm not saying that this is a good thing. It's probably bad.)

vote:YamiJoey

Does that not put me at L-1? I don't like being this uncomfortable. o.O

I don't get your last part. I assume you mean "mafia" as in scum, rather than the game. Because if you're talking about the game, I don't care about my own survival. I care about a town victory. If you mean scum, you're saying the payoff for "acting" very townie is not having a good mafia lategame, right? Why? I don't get it.

Yes; I meant when I was playing Scum. (I'll say Scum from now on.) I try to play for my own Team as much as possible, and have come out in the open and given tells that seemed accidental in order to save other players. In one game I had a one-time Cop effect that I got lucky on. I claimed it and killed the Mafia, then claimed I was going to scan a certain person on the next turn. I died and it was revealed it was once per game. I took a hit as a vanilla Townie after killing a Mafia player so that other, more important players, wouldn't get killed. (That is about the only straight-up good play I've ever made in Mafia games.)

But in a hypothetical situation, if you were mafia, would you have nightkilled me? Why?

Because I feel you're more of a threat to Scum. HP seemed very Townie, but I didn't see him hitting out at many people. Kirbyoshi was about the only person put under suspicion from him, and that was Kirby's own doing. You have been making a lot of analytical posts and calling people out on many things. You seemed like you'd be the one to find out Scum more often than HP. The way I'd see it, is that I could kill HP this turn (or another equally Townie player, depending on how today goes) and Scum would get away with directing the Town more. It'd be a lot harder to make more false claims with you around, pushing Scum into more of a hole.

If you were mafia, YJ, then you could have set this up. It seems that you might be both the mafia that set this up, and the townie that's pulling it off.

I assume you mean "You planned it as Scum, and on the thread you're doing it." in a way of "Instead of getting your Scum-buddy to deflect for you."? That's a valid point, I can't deny that, but as a Townie I have to call things as I see them. If I just let it lie, died and then you turned out to be Mafia, I'd be left posting "I knew that. ¬_¬" and everyone'd be saying "STFU n00b!" or w/e. If I see something that could be a scum plan, I'll call it out, just as you're calling people up on their posts.

It just seems much too easy to do, and it draws attention from yourself as the main suspect right at the moment.

And this is probably just going to make you want to scream "MOAR DEFLECTION!" but I'll say it anyway; everyone is voting for me because I hammered. I'll just reitterate what I've already said; I didn't know about that rule. When I play, we keep going until the day itself is called. People can end up with a unanimous vote, but the day might not end. Everyone then unvotes for that player and attacks someone else, they survive the day. (That's not happened, but people have survived after getting to a majority because other people unvote.)

I've read the rule (first one, I think) and when I read it at first, I simply didn't understand it properly. I read it as "When I say the person is dead; they are dead." I didn't read it as "When they have enough votes they are just about dead."

YJ

[Kirbyoshi]

This is a personal preference:

Some people seem to be confusing lynching and NK-ing. No one can be lynched at Night. It would make it easier (for me at least) to make the distinction if the correct terminology is used. Thanks

YJ, are you saying Webz is scum by this?

If I just let it lie, died and then you turned out to be Mafia, I'd be left posting "I knew that. ¬_¬" and everyone'd be saying "STFU n00b!" or w/e.

Because I think Webz has been one of the most townie players so far.

And no YJ, you are at L-2, aka 2 votes.

[YamiJoey]

I'm saying there's evidence that he is scum, I'm not saying that this alone proves it. I'm throwing things out there to be considered.

I thought I was already on two-votes, sorry.

Also; who's confusing NK and lynch? If it was me, then it was either a mistake, or you misunderstand what I'm saying.

YJ

[yabbaguy]

@Webz-181: I mean, thing is, we weren't expecting a dumb hammer. L-1, in my experience, is usually pushed up to just to get a claim out of someone, and Yami decided to intervene and take this the wrong way. Or maybe, again, he was naive. I'll have to keep looking at him to see which it was.

---

Regarding YJ:

I didn't read it as "When they have enough votes they are just about dead."

My thoughts exactly. I looked at the ruleset trying to find some way I could slam Joey for obviously not reading the rules, but that's why I backpedaled, because that's a mistake I could see any new player making with the way that rule was worded.

---

I need to first off apologize, because the dizzying pace and magnitude of this conversation is making my head spin right now, and I can't make too much of what you all are saying. I can probably empathize with OP, FA, and maybe even Devotress (who's one-lining all her posts) because it's legitimately hard to get involved in a conversation you're all having to yourselves.

@Kirbyoshi: Do you have any indications that point to YJ not having hammered out of a newbie mistake and actually with malicious intent? Is there something else scummy about him?

@Webz: Are you outright averse to having Kirby lynched today? Do you think he's scum?

@YamiJoey: You're playing a lot of defense. Why haven't you voted yet?

@Devotress: You unvoted YJ because he was at L-2 and you didn't like that, then you swapped to Kirby's wagon and put him at L-2 and acknowledged it. What changed?

@fallen angel (OR any replacement): How about a player-by-player analysis?

@orangepenguin: Do you think Yami or Kirby (or neither or both) is scummy?

---

I'm still sticking to Kirby because of said behavioral tell I think I've caught.

Oh yeah...

@Kirby: It doesn't matter whether or not my tell isn't in the wiki. Often in this game, people have to fend for themselves, and cannot always rely on what's said in the wiki. I don't know if what I'm saying here would resonate among all players, but in the end, one has to think and deduce for themselves, and I think I've caught onto something here. I explained it all out for you in a prior post.

[Thok]

Official Vote Count (deadline 9/29)

Kirbyoshi (2): (yabbaguy, Devotress)
YamiJoey (2): (Kirbyoshi, Webz)
Webz (0):
Devotress (0):
fallen angel (0):
yabbaguy (0):
orangepenguin (0):

Not Voting (4): (YamiJoey, fallen angel, orangepenguin)

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Please let me know if I've made a mistake.

Hunting for a replacement for fallen angel.

[Thok]

Purple Princess replaces fallen angel, effective as soon as she posts in the thread.

[purple princess]

Hey guys, just going to read through and then I will post

[YamiJoey]

@Webz-181: I mean, thing is, we weren't expecting a dumb hammer. L-1, in my experience, is usually pushed up to just to get a claim out of someone, and Yami decided to intervene and take this the wrong way. Or maybe, again, he was naive. I'll have to keep looking at him to see which it was.

If this is in regards to my "Am I now at L-1?" post, then I'll explain further:

If I am L-1, the Mafia could hammer me. They then go 3-2 for the next turn. Turn after it'll (probably) be 2-1. (I'm obviously ignoring Doc roles, because that's impossible.) I think that cutting it that fine is asking to lose the game.

@YamiJoey: You're playing a lot of defense. Why haven't you voted yet?

My vote would be on Kirby, but in case I'm wrong I don't want to allow the Mafia the above position. If Kirby

is

Townie, I do doubt any Mafia player would make that play, as Kirby is about the only player I see as all that Scummy here, so I think it'd be a better plan for them to just carry on as normal and only kill someone off towards the end rather than hammer, but I'd rather not give them the option. For this case:

HoS: Kirbyoshi

As stated, that would be a vote under other circumstances.

Also; 'ello Princess. (I couldn't help myself. xD)

YJ

[purple princess]

Okay my brain is hurting after reading all of that!

That was a really stupid mistake from YamiJoey to hammer Double A wih such a long time untill deadline, I feel that we may have missed out on valuable information on other players and giving scum an easy time with ending the day early and letting them get their first night kill in.

Right now I do belive that it was a total mistake on YamiJoey's part for hammering so early, surley no scum would hammer so quickly? especially knowing that they would have to have a pretty good defence to get themselves out of being lynched on day two.

Sometimes I think people can focus on one thing which seems to over-shadow all other questions allowing scum to get another "free pass" into day three.

I am still trying t digest the whole of this game, wil re-read and post when I can.

[Webz]

Some people seem to be confusing lynching and NK-ing. No one can be lynched at Night. It would make it easier (for me at least) to make the distinction if the correct terminology is used. Thanks .

Doh. That was me. I mixed up nking and lynching in the post, then I previewed and thought "I said lynch instead of nightkill". So replaced them. Well, most of them.

@Webz: Are you outright averse to having Kirby lynched today? Do you think he's scum?

I think that out of YJ and Kirby, I would, at this point in time, go for a YJ lynch. There are too many scumtells in this game. . But I think that although Kirby seems more like a more experienced scum, YJ should not be overlooked because of that hammer. Most likely, I won't vote for kirby today without a quite good reason. If other people want him lynched, I'm not gonna chainsaw or anything. He's definitely second likeliest to be scum, to me.

If this is in regards to my "Am I now at L-1?" post, then I'll explain further:

If I am L-1, the Mafia could hammer me. They then go 3-2 for the next turn. Turn after it'll (probably) be 2-1. (I'm obviously ignoring Doc roles, because that's impossible.) I think that cutting it that fine is asking to lose the game.

It wasn't, actually. It was about AA. Which is why it is about post 181.

But yes, I don't think that the "am I at L-1?" post meant anything either way. I can see how you got confused, because your votes have gone, today: 1,2,3,2,1,2. It's not too easy to keep track of.

No one wants anyone at the moment to be at L-1. But yes, mafia killing someone scummy in order to make a lylo situation on day 4 is very possible. Which COULD, if played properly, result in a 2/3rds chance of mafia winning. That's not what we want. And what's impossible? Having a doc (because even mafia wouldn't know that)? Or working out the probabilities if we have a doc?

And, at YJ, how strong do you think that this not being nightkilled "tell" is? Would you vote for me? FoS me? How high am I up your scumdar because of this? (Specifically, higher or lower than OP? Because the tell you got on his back seems equally a red herring to me.)

[YamiJoey]

The "impossible" comment was about knowing whether or not a Doc would be successful, as that's based on luck and skill more than anything else.

The fact you're not dead isn't playing massively on my mind, but it's worth keeping an eye on you over. I'd quote but it's too late to go searching the thread, but I did say something like "It is only the first night, though". It's not a big thing, but seeing as I'm probably a dead man, I want to make sure that the Town knows what I thought.

YJ

[Kirbyoshi]

But I think that although Kirby seems more like a more experienced scum...

That's actually a good defense for me. I've never been scum, so why would I be experienced at it?

I'll

Unvote: YamiJoey

because honestly, everyone's on my scumdar (except Purple Princess, and that may be because she hasn't posted yet).

@Devotress: You seem to have been just going with the flow since the start of the game. Don't you think it's time to break out of the pack?

@orangepenguin: You're not posting many opinions, and not much of anything at all. Whether you're town or scum, we could really use your expertise in a game like this.

@YamiJoey: Don't think for a second I've forgotten about the hammer. I'm simply coming out of a tunnel.

@Webz: TownIE, but something feels off. Can't put my finger on it.

@yabbaguy: I really don't think that behavioral tell thing will hold water. It has some truth, but there's really no telling what a player's reason ofr a post is, unless it's really obvious, or you're really good.

@Purple Princess: Welcome to the game! After you collect your thoughts, please post your suspicions!

[Webz]

TownIE

What does this mean? I don't think it's just an accident, seeing as your other capitalizations haven't been random.

@yabbaguy: I really don't think that behavioral tell thing will hold water. It has some truth, but there's really no telling what a player's reason ofr a post is, unless it's really obvious, or you're really good.

Okay, let's try behavioral analysis of this post.

First, what is the effect of the post. It is likely to decrease the chances of a kirby lynch, because he discounts the tell on him. It is also showing us that he does not think scetchy tells are tells at all, which is likely to result in a YJ lynch if caught on by town. Why? Because he is the only person with decent evidence against him. However, in the SAME POST, he unvotes YJ, so this is not likely to be a motive. However, discounting this tell is probably not beneficial to the town, as similarly strong/weak tells are probably, en mass, enough for a lynch in anyone's book.

Now, the motivation. As a primary motive I see survival. I don't see this post being meant to give the town sound advice for handling cases, because I don't see sound evidence for handling cases.

Emotion. He's calm and collected. He's not the jokey kirby that fought with HP in day 1. He wants to be heard.

I think that yabba's analysis was relevant.

[Kirbyoshi]

What does this mean? I don't think it's just an accident, seeing as your other capitalizations haven't been random.

Caps were added for emphasis. TownIE doesn't always mean town, although I'm not adopting a "Too Townie" argument, because that's just bogus.

And I'm not even going to repsond to the rest of the post, as I can tell it was done in sarcasm.

[Webz]

I think that yabba's analysis was relevant.

That bit was serious.

But yes, maybe I should have put sarcasm tags on it. :rolleyes:.

So, you say townIE when I'd say townish. Thanks.

[Devotress]

Sorry I haven't had a big post in a while. I'll try and get something meaningfull out there in the next couple days.

@Devotress: You unvoted YJ because he was at L-2 and you didn't like that, then you swapped to Kirby's wagon and put him at L-2 and acknowledged it. What changed?

I think there is a serious chance of Yamijoey getting quick hammered, I don't think there's as serious a risk of Kirby getting quick hammered because he didn't do a big hammer last Day that everyone hates him for.

[Devotress]

@Devotress: You seem to have been just going with the flow since the start of the game. Don't you think it's time to break out of the pack?

The flow of the game is you or Yamijoey. I fully think you're both scum, and I expect atleast one of you, if not both of you to flip scum in the end. If I agree with the flow there's not much I can do to stand out with out just trying to stand out for the sake of it, which isn't something a townie has to be concerned with, trying to look townie.

[Devotress]

My quick thoughts on the thread's last couple days though:
Yamijoey needs to stop going after webz for too townie. a scum trying to look too townie is a good thing, because they'll post alot of big meaningfull posts filled with chances for them to slip up, if he's too townie, wait for him to slip up, if he doesn't, he probably is town.
Kirby's very scattershot. "everyone's on my scumdar". If he's actually townie, paranoid is fine, if you really believe there's a good chance of everyone being scum, you need to read through all their posts and analyze. Frankly I think there's a couple people I'm taking for granted as town at this point though.
I don't think Orangepenguin is scum, just because lurking seems like a newbie scum tactic, not an IC scum tactic. But his never posting is a little worrysome, because there's nothing to read.
Also, yay purple princess, you allready have more posts then your predecessor.

[purple princess]

Okay here goes.....

orangepenguin

hasn't really posted much, which I find a little strange of and ic, ic's can still be scum, even if they are ic's, also I would imagine that thy would be far better at covering up being scum than the rest of us as they have more expeience.

Devotress

I don't get any scum vibes from her atm, so will belive she is town untill proven otherwise.

Yes, I claimed vanilla.

Even though it isn't a scum move, telling everyone you're vanilla isn't very pro town if you're actually vanilla. It gives the scum one less target in there hunt for power roles.

I agree about this making it easier for scum to hunt power roles, but I think that YamiJoey has to try everything he possibly can right now to stay in this game untill tomorrow especially if he is town.

YamiJoey

What a stupid, stupid move you made on hammering Double A, especially when we were quite away from deadline, we may have missed out on vital information on who may be scum instead of getting rid of town, I agree that you should be lynched just for this silly move, but with this being a small game we cannot afford to run the risk of loosing more town right now. I think you should make yourself incredibly usefull on finding who is actually scum in this game just to try and save you own arse right now.

Kirbyoshi

seems jumpy, voting all over the place early on in this game, could be nothing, could also be a scum tell.

yabbaguy

I can't seem to get any read on him so far, not really posted too much to get any vibes right now, will keep my eyes peeled for him.

Webz

I kind of have to agree that he looks a bit 'too townie' right now, his posts seem far too long, but they don't really have much point to them.

FOS Webz

[Webz]

@ PP:It has been gone over before: Too Townie is not a scumtell. It is a shown logical fallacy.

To sum up what I think about people:

Purple Princess: Many of your arguments seem to lack depth.

#1: You're treating Devotress as town because you can't get a total read on her, while you're treating Yabba as sceptical scum because you can't get a read on him, when he has contributed MORE to scumhunting than Devotress. This seems like double standards, which is not townie in the slightest.

#2: You're assuming that YJ's main objective is to stay alive. It is not a townie's main aim to stay alive, but to scumhunt. You seem to think that YJ should focus more on defending himself than finding a more scummy person, which is very, very scummy. Because scum only want to stay alive.

#3: Using the Too Townie fallacy.

Kirby: People are calling you scattershot, however, this is not a bad thing. There shouldn't be anyone who is acting scummy off your scumdar. What I don't like is that you disagree with yourself and take turns on your cases. You should never discount a scumtell that hasn't been proven wrong. You have a strong enough case on YJ to vote, easily, and he hasn't posted anything groundbreakingly townie since you voted. I see no reason for the unvote. Having a vote on someone doesn't mean you can't be suspicious of anyone else.

YJ: You are playing too much defense. You've given your excuses for what has happened. Any more will be irrelevant, so scumhunt instead.

Yabba: You SEEM town to me. There's nothing to say otherwise.

op: I still don't think that you're scum. But can you say what you think about everyone so far?

Devotress: I do think that you have never, really, done anything that DIDN'T go with the existing flow of the game. You did post #76 asking everyone who they thought was scummy, but you didn't put any more pressure on Kirby than he already had.

Seeing as you seem to be for either a Kirby or YJ lynch, who, of the remaining people (not Kirb or YJ) do you see as the scummiest?

ALSO: People, who do you favour for a lynch, out of Kirbyoshi and YamiJoey?

Kirby-Yabbaguy, Devotress, Yamijoey
YamiJoey- Webz, (Kirby), (op)

People in ()s I'm not sure of. PP, I have no idea.

[Devotress]

Devotress: I do think that you have never, really, done anything that DIDN'T go with the existing flow of the game. You did post #76 asking everyone who they thought was scummy, but you didn't put any more pressure on Kirby than he already had.

I think I was one of the first people to start serious scum hunting on Kirby, forgetting his arguement with Humble, which I don't think arguing with him counted as scum hunting on humble's part. I didn't place my vote on him first, but I allready explained not voting in that post before and that'd be a retread. For the record, I don't think I ever voted for double A either, and my vote was still on kirby at the end of the day. Though I did have suspicions on Double A, I thought kirby was more scummy and kept my vote that way, which was going against the larger beliefs of the town to lynch double A.
I am however going with the flow today, but that's because the flow of the day is completly accurate seeming, one is the person I thought was scum from day one, and the other is the quick hammer boy.

Seeing as you seem to be for either a Kirby or YJ lynch, who, of the remaining people (not Kirb or YJ) do you see as the scummiest?

Well, no one else is super leaping out scum, but I get wierd feelings from how little Orange penguin has participated. Not that lack of participation is scummy outright, but the fact that we can't read him at all, and I'm not getting super scum feelings from anyone else (barring the two you just excluded), makes me pick him.

ALSO: People, who do you favour for a lynch, out of Kirbyoshi and YamiJoey?

I've thought Kirby was scummy for two days, and YJ was scummy for one day. I think they're both scummy as all get out but if I had to pick one I guess YJ right now, even though I've thought he was scum for less time, that hammer and his repeated Too Townie arguement ping super big on scum radar.

Kirby-Yabbaguy, Devotress, Yamijoey
YamiJoey- Webz, (Kirby), (op)

People in ()s I'm not sure of. PP, I have no idea.

I actually not sure what this part is about.

[Devotress]

I've thought Kirby was scummy for two days, and YJ was scummy for one day. I think they're both scummy as all get out but if I had to pick one I guess YJ right now, even though I've thought he was scum for less time, that hammer and his repeated Too Townie arguement ping super big on scum radar.

I almost kind of wish I had 2 votes just so i could have one on both to accurately reflect my views better.