Mini 829 - Internal Struggle Mafia (Over)

[DTMaster]

@Don

a. It's called a gamble at this point. Since Zach didn't watch Ryan we cannot confirm him through watcher powers. Since he's been able to snipe scum, I'm willing to trust him. If he disobeys we'll be in lylo tomorrow and we can lynch him then for being SK. If there is scum left then we will need his vote.

b. Your setups break the 3 scum rule for setups 2,4,5. Usually its 3 scum in this setup and if there was 4 with a vig/sk in the mix we would need to literally kill scum everyday to win and lynch on the final day or we lose. If there is 3 kills a day and 2 of them are townies. It's too much for a max of 12 people.

c. Why did you ignore my question?

@Ice
Thoughts? Lurkin through this game is bad play.

[don_johnson]

@Don

a. It's called a gamble at this point. Since Zach didn't watch Ryan we cannot confirm him through watcher powers. Since he's been able to snipe scum, I'm willing to trust him. If he disobeys we'll be in lylo tomorrow and we can lynch him then for being SK. If there is scum left then we will need his vote.

we won't have his vote if we lynch him. how do you know zach didn't watch ryan? why does town need to "gamble" at this point? seems to me we could win easily if we play our cards right?

b. Your setups break the 3 scum rule for setups 2,4,5. Usually its 3 scum in this setup and if there was 4 with a vig/sk in the mix we would need to literally kill scum everyday to win and lynch on the final day or we lose. If there is 3 kills a day and 2 of them are townies. It's too much for a max of 12 people.

usually is not always. i have played in many games with odd set-ups. never more than four scum, but i have played in all of the amentioned set-ups in twelve player games.

c. Why did you ignore my question?

didn't see it. let me look...

How is it simpler to have an SK and a 2 man scum team then a traditional 3 man scum team?

we have two nightkills per night indicating two killing factions. simplest explanation is two scum factions. most likely set-up with two scum factions is 2man scum team and 1sk imo.

thinking out loud:

a vig with multiple shots is a possibility, but then why wasn't vig targeted by mafia? if they were a two man team they would have suspected him to be sk and would need to get rid of him. if they were three man team then they would suspect him to be vig. again it makes sense to target him. in fact it makes more sense to target him if they believe he is vig than if they believe him to be sk. since they did not target him, then they must think he is sk. if they think he is sk then their is most likely only two scum. sk's are often unk and that would explain why they wouldn't target him. protective roles don't

usually

target vig's due to the wifom surrounding their alignment, so i don't see any reason for scum to fear killing the "vig". anyways...

Did you get anything in the night to help us?

maybe. did you?

[don_johnson]

ebwop: in regards to the four scum set-ups, their would not be a town vig. in those set-ups, and in fact, any of the set-ups with an sk, their would be no town vig. three killing factions is unlikely, especially considering we only have two kills per night for two nights in a row.

so far:

zach: town watcher(claimed)
ryan: town vig(claimed)
don: town pr(claimed)
toro: town roleblocker(confirmed)

if sk exists then it is most likely ryan. it is beyond reasonable to think he is scum gambiting for the sk to expose themself.

[ryan2754]

a) how would we know if he disobeys? he could be sk.

Good God.

b) no need to massclaim, but i won't oppose it. we are ahead of the curve right now. mass claim is better reserved for times when town has nothing to go on.

Personally, I think it would do us some good.

ryan: i want to believe you are town. in fact, you were the only one i felt sure was town going into night phase, but i cannot ignore the possibility that you are a clever sk, and i wouldn't be doing my job if i did ignore it.

I understand you, but you seem to further implicate that I am an SK more and more with every post, subtely trying to get the town to think that way. Very clever.

a. It's called a gamble at this point. Since Zach didn't watch Ryan we cannot confirm him through watcher powers. Since he's been able to snipe scum, I'm willing to trust him. If he disobeys we'll be in lylo tomorrow and we can lynch him then for being SK. If there is scum left then we will need his vote.

Or we could have me kill someone and have Zach watch me tonight to confirm. Or to confirm that I don't kill anyone. However, then if mafia NK, it opens a whole big bag of WIFOM.
Personally, I am surprised either myself or Don was not killed last night. We indeed were the at least softclaimed PRs. Makes no sense they offed RC, unless he was hot on someone's trail.

b. Your setups break the 3 scum rule for setups 2,4,5. Usually its 3 scum in this setup and if there was 4 with a vig/sk in the mix we would need to literally kill scum everyday to win and lynch on the final day or we lose. If there is 3 kills a day and 2 of them are townies. It's too much for a max of 12 people.

True.

we won't have his vote if we lynch him. how do you know zach didn't watch ryan? why does town need to "gamble" at this point? seems to me we could win easily if we play our cards right?

We could. Looking at me is barking up the wrong tree.

we have two nightkills per night indicating two killing factions. simplest explanation is two scum factions. most likely set-up with two scum factions is 2man scum team and 1sk imo.

We have not had 2 NKs every night. Toro RBed one night, remember?

a vig with multiple shots is a possibility, but then why wasn't vig targeted by mafia? if they were a two man team they would have suspected him to be sk and would need to get rid of him. if they were three man team then they would suspect him to be vig. again it makes sense to target him. in fact it makes more sense to target him if they believe he is vig than if they believe him to be sk. since they did not target him, then they must think he is sk. if they think he is sk then their is most likely only two scum. sk's are often unk and that would explain why they wouldn't target him. protective roles don't

usually

target vig's due to the wifom surrounding their alignment, so i don't see any reason for scum to fear killing the "vig". anyways...

I feel SK would be more important to kill for mafia than SK. When I have played as mafia, and seen a Vig, I have usually let them go, because their track record is usually not that good. I assume the mafia assumed I wouldn't kill (like I said I might) and at tops wouldn't get another mafia either. Either way, whether or not I am SK or Vig, they should have killed a confirmed power killing role.

if sk exists then it is most likely ryan. it is beyond reasonable to think he is scum gambiting for the sk to expose themself.

What do you mean by the last sentence?
You think I am scum gambiting (3rd scum) trying to get the SK (2nd killing faction) to out himself? Good God.
I thought you said 3 scum 1 Sk was extrmeely unlikely?

Let's just end this discussion now.
I am a vigilante, town aligned.
There is 3 scum, most likely the last having some powerful role (since all we have killed is a goon and a ninja).


We need a mass claim. I have a feeling it would put this game to rest.


Anybody do an ISO read of RC or Jason?

[don_johnson]

ryan: i want to believe you are town. in fact, you were the only one i felt sure was town going into night phase, but i cannot ignore the possibility that you are a clever sk, and i wouldn't be doing my job if i did ignore it.

I understand you, but you seem to further implicate that I am an SK more and more with every post, subtely trying to get the town to think that way. Very clever.

not clever. just not stupid. possibility exists that you are sk.

we have two nightkills per night indicating two killing factions. simplest explanation is two scum factions. most likely set-up with two scum factions is 2man scum team and 1sk imo.

We have not had 2 NKs every night. Toro RBed one night, remember?

implication of two kills per night. not sure why mafia would have had the goon doing the killing though...

I feel SK would be more important to kill for mafia than SK. When I have played as mafia, and seen a Vig, I have usually let them go, because their track record is usually not that good. I assume the mafia assumed I wouldn't kill (like I said I might) and at tops wouldn't get another mafia either. Either way, whether or not I am SK or Vig, they should have killed a confirmed power killing role.

yes.

if sk exists then it is most likely ryan. it is beyond reasonable to think he is scum gambiting for the sk to expose themself.

What do you mean by the last sentence?
You think I am scum gambiting (3rd scum) trying to get the SK (2nd killing faction) to out himself? Good God.
I thought you said 3 scum 1 Sk was extrmeely unlikely?

beyond reasonable means not reasonable. i don't think you are gambitting scum. you are either vig or sk.

Let's just end this discussion now.
I am a vigilante, town aligned.
There is 3 scum, most likely the last having some powerful role (since all we have killed is a goon and a ninja).


We need a mass claim. I have a feeling it would put this game to rest.


Anybody do an ISO read of RC or Jason?

massclaim is fine. first i want to know zach's targets both nights.

[Zachrulez]

Night 1 my target was Don Johnson

Night 2 it was Ryan.

[ryan2754]

And what did your results reveal?

[don_johnson]

good.

ryan: i am fairly convinved you are town due to your gameplay and target choices. i am formulating a plan that should result in a town win. it will take cooperation between you me and zach. i am just as if not more convinced that zach is town based on the fact that he claims watcher, picked sensible targets, and we have a confirmed ninja.

i have reason to believe paradox is town which leaves the final scum among:

hiphop
dtm
icemane

my plan should eliminate these three players and ryan before a lylo situation would have the chance to occur. personally, i think if we do it right we can win by morning. in any case, the claims won't hurt.

i am doctor.

today we lynch hiphop. if game continues then my plan is that i protect zach and zach watches me. ryan is left unprotected but has the green light to nk one of dtm/iceman. even if scum choose not to hit our "vig", we can continue lynching down the line into a three person lylo of zach/don/ryan. obviously, this plan rests on the three of us trusting each other to the point that we know that if this situation occurs then the game should already be over. if it isn't, well then, most likely scenario is that ryan is sk and zach and i lynch him. i doubt it will come to that as i have already stated i believe the three of us to be town. thoughts?

[ryan2754]

Don, for the sake of argument, I am going to wait on expressing my opinion before others chime in that haven't said anything this round.

[alexhans]

IcemanE has been prodded. If he doesn't post withing the next 48 hs he is being replaced.

[Zachrulez]

And what did your results reveal?

Now that Don has full claimed.

Nobody visited don on night one.

Don visited Ryan on night two.

[DTMaster]

@Don
1. Oh right.. watcher not tracker. I got the roles mixed up. I cannot not know that Zach didn't watch ryan, but he just revealed that I was wrong.

2. It's a gamble if you believe he's SK and aren't willing to trust in his vig claim. If ryan does turn out to be SK we'll see this tonight. Yes we can potentially win if we play our cards right since mafia setup logic points towards 1 scum left.

3. I find it odd that you payed with 4 scum in 12 people teams before D:... town must have been powerful to compensate for that. /speculation.

But yes I see that that is a simple way to see the 2 kills, but not the simplest since to me SK and Vig are interchangeable. Though that is just a difference of opinion here.

4. Your WIFOM train about scum thinking about ryan thinking that he is SK could also act as a deterrent to not kill him. It's very circular and can go either way. Fear is a powerful shield in terms of psychology.

Though yes it is odd that Ryan didn't die last night and they chose to kill RC. Maybe they ran into your protect instead of having Toro RB to protect himself? It could be confirmation bias based on the flip and another scum could have been the one to do the night kill. But we can't confirm this till the end game :<. Who did you protect on day 1?

5. I didn't do any night actions because I cannot do any night actions. Since it's pretty much a soft claim I say

I'm Vanilla Townie

with no super powers. I do not object to being on the lists of kills/potential to lynch just because it's plain logical, but I don't understand why you are excluding Paradox here but I'll leave that to you.

[hiphop]

Thanks to Ryan we are not in lylo. I am convinced and have been for a long time that Ryan is town, but Don I wasn't sure until Zach posted his post of Don targeting Ryan. Now I believe that IcemanE is our missing scum. If someone does an iso read of Shrine they will understand. He never mentions Jason, and he only writes Drk’s name twice. He agrees with him once, and asks idk why he suspects drk. This is his one accusation of DRK.

@IK
Explain how stupid you think I am that I would buddy so obviously. Be as detailed as you can.

Keyword: "would". Isn't going into conditional like this [i.e. would a given player

would

do if he were x alignment] what falls under WIFOM?

Is this the only defense you have for his buddying accusation?

Wait, is this the same accusation that you used "I'm inexperienced, therefore obviously I'd [Shrine aside: there's that "would" again...] be stupid enough to buddy to this extent." to defend yourself with?!

which he doesn’t follow up. It is almost a hint rather than an accusation. For that I

vote: IcemanE

as one of the last scum.

[ryan2754]

So, seeing as though you claimed doc, Don, why were you going into all that trouble discussing why I wasn't killed last night? You clearly protected me last night, and well, I'm intrigued how that fit into your whole thought process about me not being targeted. Just seems odd you would go into detail on why I may not have been targeted when it was null and void anyway, especially when you discussed an SK being unnightkillable.

Why protect someone you think might be an SK?

[alexhans]

No word from IcemanE yet.

----------------------------

Those in danger of suppression #31:

hiphop (1)

-

ryan2754

icemanE (1)

-

hiphop

Not Voting (5)

-

don_johnson, Paradoxombie, hiphop, icemanE, DTMaster, Zachrulez

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

[don_johnson]

So, seeing as though you claimed doc, Don, why were you going into all that trouble discussing why I wasn't killed last night? You clearly protected me last night, and well, I'm intrigued how that fit into your whole thought process about me not being targeted. Just seems odd you would go into detail on why I may not have been targeted when it was null and void anyway, especially when you discussed an SK being unnightkillable.

Why protect someone you think might be an SK?

first, going into last night i had you pegged as most likely to be town. i also figured that if you were sk, then you may reveal yourself through your kill. either alignment, i felt it important to make sure that you made it into today. also, the fact that we had two kills and that eveidence points to two killing factions, the fact that rc showed up dead is proof enough at this point to determine that you were not targeted. the reason i am discussing these thing s is simple:

1) there is a big difference in "believeing" you to be sk, and simply "accepting the possibility" that you may be sk. as an uninformed minority i have to accept the possibility that you are lying simply due to the facets of your role. i.e. you kill at night.

2) i think it will help us better understand this game and its set-up. by discussing these things we get players reactions which can aide us in determining alignments.

my current belief is that we are most likely facing one of two scenarios:

1 scum left
or
1 sk left.

hence my plan. it eliminates all possibilities. by leaving you as the only unprotected "town" power role it is in scum's best interest to deal with you at night(especially since you have nk abilities) . if they want to wifom then they are going to kill elswhere(narrowing down our lynch pool) and most likely try to frame you or get you lynched. fact is, scum is dead in the water here. its you or its one other player. noone had made a concerted effort to jump on the idea of you being sk and get you lynched(which would be in scums best interest). noone has targeted you at night which means (if you are town) that they were most likely trying to lynch you later.

i protected paradox night one. the ninja flip makes me think i actually stopped the scum nk as opposed to toro's roleblock of drk. this leaves only the three aforementioned players as questionable imo. if we leave you unprotected and lynch/vig them in succession then we should wind up with a town win. you may get nk'd, but you'd still win, no?

i am fine with lynching iceman over hiphop. ryan can vig hiphop tonight.

vote: iceman

i hate to lynch him absentee, but his player slot is corrupted either way and forcing someon into replacing seems downright cruel.

the only flaw in my plan is if zach or i are scum, however, if evidence presents itself in either direction we can always address it when the time comes.

i say we do this and move forward. zach, make sure you watch me.

[icemanE]

Thoughts? Lurkin through this game is bad play.

Sorry sorry sorry. Been busy, but I'll have plenty of time now.

We need a mass claim. I have a feeling it would put this game to rest.

I agree. I'm vanilla.

I hate self-voting but the plan seems solid enough, so if it's me today then so be it.

[hiphop]

What is it with people wanting to be lynched? One after the other. We have Idk, than Toro and now icemanE. Who's next? Though icemanE could be saying he would self-vote to lead people astray that he is town. Actually if icemanE is the last scum, it makes sense that he would target RC, being it might of taken time for him to read through the thread and he wasn't sure of what was happening.

We have Para wanting Ryan to hold his kill, because this would show that he could be a vig, while don encourages him to use it. I think it would be better if Ryan did not make a kill. An Sk would always want to make a kill being that is one less person that he must deal with, while a vig always wants to help the town.

By the way, I am vanilla.

[icemanE]

I'd obviously prefer not to be lynched, but if we follow the plan, the order doesn't really matter, does it?

[DTMaster]

@Don

1. Faulty reasoning on Paradox's township because we cannot confirm if it was Toro's RB or your protect that stopped scum from committing NK in the first night. Unless RBs do not block kills then Para shouldn't be considered confirmed.

Then again the best thing for scum to do is for Jason to be the person executing the kills with his ability.

@Ice
Are you advocating that we lynch you and follow the Don's plan? o-o Ideally if one of the 3 of us is scum it wouldn't matter what order this goes towards.

[don_johnson]

@Don

1. Faulty reasoning on Paradox's township because we cannot confirm if it was Toro's RB or your protect that stopped scum from committing NK in the first night. Unless RBs do not block kills then Para shouldn't be considered confirmed.

Then again the best thing for scum to do is for Jason to be the person executing the kills with his ability.

@Ice
Are you advocating that we lynch you and follow the Don's plan? o-o Ideally if one of the 3 of us is scum it wouldn't matter what order this goes towards.

bolded is the logical thought. i am not confirming paradox. he is simply less likely scum due to the circumstances. i would rather work through the three of you first, and no, order doesn't really matter as long as zach and i protect each other. if i show up dead and zach claims to not have seen me then zach should probably be lynched, but his targets and results make perfect sense as town watcher so i don't see that scenario as likely.

i'm fine with discussion carrying on, but i don't see too many flaws in this plan. if ryan is sk it is going to be extremely hard for him to win under the current set-up, so even if he is not town aligned, the only flaw is if zach or i are scum.

[don_johnson]

@ hiphop: it is much better if we have ryan continue killing. not only will it speed up the game, but if he is sk he will most likely need to find a way to get rid of me or zach to win and by doing so will only incriminate himself. also, if he is sk, he could easily kill and then say he didn't. so yeah, you're going to be nk'd. if you're town and you believe me and zach are town then you should be fine with the plan.

[DTMaster]

@Don

1. Btw your flaw only works if

both Zach and you are scum

, it cannot be either or. You confirmed his watches, and he confirmed your doc status. It's impossible for just one of you to be scum unless both of you are lying. I don't get why you are stressing that it fails if just one of you are scum. >>;;

You seem to be saying this a lot and it's an inaccuracy. The only other way for just one of you to be scum is that scum-Zach perfectly guessed your actions as doc on night 2.

[DTMaster]

@Paradox

What's your claim BTW. You haven't claimed yet.

[don_johnson]

@Don

1. Btw your flaw only works if

both Zach and you are scum

, it cannot be either or. You confirmed his watches, and he confirmed your doc status. It's impossible for just one of you to be scum unless both of you are lying. I don't get why you are stressing that it fails if just one of you are scum. >>;;

You seem to be saying this a lot and it's an inaccuracy. The only other way for just one of you to be scum is that scum-Zach perfectly guessed your actions as doc on night 2.

zach could be scumwatcher. you are wrong. my plan is flawed if either mine or zachs alignment is anti-town. not sure why you are arguing such a moot point here. read up on mini 737- hack poetry mafia. i claimed town watcher on day 2 and won as scum watcher. zach, however, picked "townie" targets, i.e. those most likely to be nk'd by scum(claimed town pr's).

possibilities regarding ryan being sk:

he is possibly unightkillable. he may have been targeted night 1 and that was the reason the kill didn't go through.

his night two target was an uncounterclaimed investigative town role. yes jason was scum, but its a risky vig shot to say the least. a very smart sk shot as a "lie detector" would have been able to investigate ryan's claim.

if ryan doesn't go along with the plan then he is most likely sk. he should be happy as town vig to have nailed two scum already. i would like more of his opinion on the matter.

paradox: please claim. i would like your opinion on the plan as well.