I'm a bit surprised at the reactions frankly. It was blatantly obvious KY Crew was going to get made the advocate. And yes, we intended to stunt in before he chose a door because doing so still fixes us at 2/3 odds of winning even without the information he has.
Clearly KY Crew did have SOME information about which the correct door was. Advocates need to have SOME information, and look here:
KY Krew (178) wrote: have been given information that my charity was greatly helped by getting rid of Door 3.
He may or may not be lying here. But if you think about it, knowing the state of ANY of the doors to begin with means you can guarantee a win (if you're town). If you know the state of one door and it's the right one, you just pick it and tell the town to stay. If you know the state of one door and it's the wrong one, you pick it. The host has to close the other wrong door which is guaranteed to leave you on the correct door if you switch.
So, basically
- KY Crew had information about the state of at least one of the doors
- Having information about the state of at least one of the doors or even just simply being automatically told which is the correct one both guarantee one can pick the correct one and will know which is the correct door.
- KY is scum
- KY will have chosen a door in an attempt to WIFOM as much as possible, or simply chosen randomly.
I conclude that the best course of action for town is to attempt to use a provably random measure to pursue a mixed strategy of 2 (switch)/1 (stay). Because you win 2/3 times when switching and 1/3 times when staying. But KY Crew knows this and will have countered it. This means we need a random number generator which will generate switch two thirds of the time and stay one third of the time. Mixed strategy allows us to fix our odds and also prevents horrible, horrible WIFOM over what we should advocate. I predict scum will get more of an advantage over town as they can avoid dropping scum-tells, already knowing which the correct door is. So yes, any ideas on a random facilitator?
Also: no-one died overnight. I suspect possibly making the wrong decision enables night-kills.
I also have no idea why ckd fired MafiaJin (particularly with that timing).
- ortolan