Mini 817: Chosen (Game Over!)

[Herodotus]

My vote for Papa is due to both him cuddling and the idea that he is less likely to be the chosen. More than that it is the idea that you he and Zorblag are switching codes back and forth about Herodotus.

If I am the chosen, this looks scummy. It looks like an attempt to set up a lynch on Papa Zito or Zorblag if I were to flip.
And it's still suspicious that MM never considered that Zorblag might be sending

me

a message about Papa Zito.

[Herodotus]

Now, would the two of you please each tell me why the other is the scum, and you are not? I can't decide. And you may as well vote each other; I won't hammer until I'm pretty confident.

Wow. So you're advocating a strategy that would result in an instant win if you are scum?

MAJOR FoS: Herodotus

That's an enormous "if," considering the content of the remainder of my post.
But more importantly, see my reason given in 649 for writing the sentences you quoted.

[MiteyMouse]

Hero...as I already said, the case that you presented the "proves that you are Town" is true for all 3 of us. And if you missed it, the second part of the post that I made saying that was sarcasm...to show how ridiculous what you were trying to do was.

The new arguement is WiFoM. You ask why you as Scum would Night kill the people that had a pro Town read on you. Well this could look like the Scum were trying to reduce your support team and that could make you look good...so it is a possibility that you did it to make you look good.

As for you giving up your "nearly certain win"...again WiFoM. You would still need a Town player on board with you.

The possibility of you bussing your partner...well it is a very widely used mafia strategy. It will buy the remaining Scum Town cred. My very first game as Scum, I was bussed crazy hard and we won the game.

As for Papa and Zorblag having a Town read on you. Well, they were both Town and had no extra info. They are both good players (I would venture to say very good players) but, they are only human and could have been wrong.

I have to go for supper but, I'll be back later.

[Herodotus]

How is the same true for all three of us?

Let's analyze every case:

-> will mean "probably leads to"
=> will mean "result"

Dry scum:
No Kill -> Mitey or Dry lynch with higher odds of Mitey lynch
=> if Mitey is the Chosen, maybe a 70% chance of Dry winning, otherwise very low chance of winning
Mitey Kill -> Dry lynch
=> Dry loses
Herodotus Kill -> Mitey or Dry lynch with higher odds of Mitey lynch
=> if Mitey is the Chosen, maybe a 70% chance of Dry winning, otherwise very low chance of winning
Zorblag Kill -> ?

Mitey scum:
No Kill -> Mitey or Dry lynch with higher odds of Mitey lynch
=> if Dry is the Chosen, maybe a 30% chance of Mitey winning, otherwise very low chance of winning
Dry Kill -> Mitey lynch
=> Mitey loses
Herodotus Kill -> Mitey or Dry lynch with higher odds of Mitey lynch
=> if Dry is the Chosen, maybe a 30% chance of Mitey winning, otherwise very low chance of winning
Zorblag Kill -> ?

Nope. There were no alternative-to-Zorblag NK's that I can see that would have made either of you nearly certain of winning.

To call my argument wifom is to suggest that I would intentionally make myself

much

less likely to win, just to be able to say that I made the game harder for me to win as scum. That's not wifom, that's stupidity. A similar argument applies regarding bussing. Just because some scum sometimes bus doesn't mean that it is the simplest explanation for why someone lynched scum.

Why is second-guessing what is obvious better than believing the same obvious thing, or third-guessing?

If Mitey is scum, then I am almost certainly the chosen. But I feel like Mitey actually believes the BS she is writing. In either case, I think Dry-fit is a safe lynch. If Dry-fit is lynched, I'm pretty sure the town will win. I'm not voting because doing so won't prove anything, because I could be wrong, and because I'm not sure whether Dry understands how voting in lylo works with the chosen mechanic.

[Herodotus]

As for you giving up your "nearly certain win"...again WiFoM. You would still need a Town player on board with you.

Are you even reading this game?
Zorblag would have voted for you or Dry-fit. He would have been the "town player on board" if I were scum. Why the * are you revisiting this point after it's already been made? It makes you look like a desperate lyncher, whether you are or aren't.

[MiteyMouse]

Why is Dry the safe lynch here Hero?

And also lines like "But I feel like Mitey actually believes the BS she is writing" is not going to win me over. If you are the other Town we are going to need to work together...and I am starting to lean that way as, it seems to me that Dry is sitting back and watching us duke it out. I'm not a person that responds to insults though...

[MiteyMouse]

As for you giving up your "nearly certain win"...again WiFoM. You would still need a Town player on board with you.

Are you even reading this game?
Zorblag would have voted for you or Dry-fit. He would have been the "town player on board" if I were scum. Why the * are you revisiting this point after it's already been made? It makes you look like a desperate lyncher, whether you are or aren't.

What are you talking about...I'm responding to your big post. Which, I might add, you asked us to do.

[Herodotus]

Okay.
I'm pretty sure that if you are the scum, then Dry is not the chosen, or you would have accepted my argument that I was town without bothering to question it.
Therefore, if you are scum, then lynching Dry probably means the town wins. If on the other hand, you are town, then Dry is the scum, so again, lynching Dry probably means the town wins.

As far as insults are concerned, I'm trying to avoid them, but I'm frustrated by the play of whichever of you is town (and it's looking like that is you, but I'm not sure.) I think that your objection to the evidence that I have put forward is incorrect. You seem to agree with the premises for my argument, while disagreeing with the conclusion for no apparent reason.

Do you agree that if I were scum, and I had made no NK, that Zorblag most likely would have wanted to lynch you, and if you turned up as town, that he most likely would have wanted to lynch Dry-fit? If you're still online, please answer.

[MiteyMouse]

Hero, I now that I'm Town but, you don't know that. The same goes for me of you if you are Town. I'm frustrated too. Your arguement does make sense but, it is not a statement of fact and you are treating it as if it is...probably because you know your own alignment...remember that I do not. So, I'm argueing with you but, I need to figure things out too.

Zorblag did sem to think tht you werre the Towniest of us so, yes, I do believe that he would have gone for either Dry or I before you.

[Herodotus]

My point is that if I were the scum, I would have wanted Zorblag alive, as his read on me would have been an asset that would have made the game a nearly certain win for me. It would have made it easy to get either you or Dry-fit lynched. That's not a 100%, mod-confirmed proof, but it's pretty strong.

I know it's unusual for someone to make an argument that they are town at a point when no one is pushing hard on them. Is that why you seemed to find me more suspicious instead of less suspicious? In this case, I felt that the reactions of the two of you would be helpful in determining whether I was the chosen, and possibly which of you was scum.

[MiteyMouse]

OK Hero...that is fair enough.

And yes...you coming out of the blue to "prove" your Towniness rasied all my little flags. Did you come to any conclusions in your little reaction test?

[Herodotus]

OK Hero...that is fair enough.

And yes...you coming out of the blue to "prove" your Towniness rasied all my little flags. Did you come to any conclusions in your little reaction test?

Yes. You responded pretty strongly against my argument. If you were scum and Dry was the chosen, you wouldn't have much reason to do so. That scenario seems unlikely (though not ruled out.)

[Herodotus]

Hmm...

Looking over what I wrote in 653-654, I wouldn't want someone to say that to me.

I'm sorry. If I could, I would change the part you cited to "But I feel like Mitey actually believes what she is writing, even though I don't consider it a credible position from my point of view." And 654 to just "Zorblag would have voted for you or Dry-fit. He would have been the "town player on board" if I were scum. Why are you revisiting this point after it's already been made? To question this in the fashion that you are makes you look like a desperate lyncher, whether you are or aren't."

[Dry-fit]

Firstly, I apologize for my absence. I've had a busy week with school so I haven't had much time to post.

Herod's argument for his towninessis not convincing to me, but Mitey has already commented on that somewhat. One point to add:

4. Most importantly:
Why I would give up what you both seem to agree would be a nearly certain win for myself by not entering one of the Day 4 scenarios we discussed.

We only agreed that it would be a nearly certain win TODAY, after the kill had already been made. If you are scum, you couldn't be sure how likely this plan was to succeed before making the kill. Of course, you sould have easily came to the same conclusion we did yourself.

I'm not voting because doing so won't prove anything, because I could be wrong, and because I'm not sure whether Dry understands how voting in lylo works with the chosen mechanic.

I think I understand it, but maybe not . Why would my not understanding the mechanic make you not want to vote for me?

Herod, I am also not sure about your argument of why not to kill Zorblag. It is possible you would think that it would be easier to manipulate us with him dead. He is a strong player, and would be dangerous for scum in an endgame scenario.

[MiteyMouse]

Hmm...

Looking over what I wrote in 653-654, I wouldn't want someone to say that to me.

I'm sorry. If I could, I would change the part you cited to "But I feel like Mitey actually believes what she is writing, even though I don't consider it a credible position from my point of view." And 654 to just "Zorblag would have voted for you or Dry-fit. He would have been the "town player on board" if I were scum. Why are you revisiting this point after it's already been made? To question this in the fashion that you are makes you look like a desperate lyncher, whether you are or aren't."

Thank you Hero...it is appreciated!

[Herodotus]

I think I understand it, but maybe not . Why would my not understanding the mechanic make you not want to vote for me?

In most games, when the first player votes for another in Lylo, that makes it safe for the votee to vote back. With the chosen mechanic, it is possible that the chosen votes for the VT, which is safe, but a return vote would be a losing idea. One of the reasons I didn't want to vote was the possibility that I'm the chosen, you're the VT, and you would take my vote as an indication that you may as well vote me back.

How do you feel about my idea that you are a safe lynch for today? If you are a VT, then you can only be lynched if (a) you self vote, or (b) the scum gambit by voting you and the chosen also votes you. If you are scum, then you can only be lynched if Mitey and I agree. If you are the chosen, then if the VT votes you, the scum will hop on.

[MiteyMouse]

Something that strikes me when looking back at the voting sheet that Hero posted is that Hero was the only of the three of us that voted for any of the others. He voted for Dry on Day 2.

[MiteyMouse]

Opps...I hit submit instead of preview.

This makes me think that perhaps Dry is the Chosen and Hero the Scum.

[Herodotus]

1. Do you remember the reason for my vote at the time?
2. You have each voted for the other previously. Bloodcovenant aka. Dry-fit voted for you on day 1; you voted for Dry on day 3.

If you're going to argue that I'm scum and Dry is the chosen, use a better premise, like the fact that I'm suggesting Dry is probably a safe lynch. Of course, your posts 666-667 make me more convinced than I was before that he isn't the chosen.

[MiteyMouse]

So Hero...you think the Dry is not the Chosen...fair enough. Who do you think is more likely to be Chosen then, you or I.

Oh and you are right...I had forgotten about Dry voting me at the start of the game...big brain fart there...sorry.

[Herodotus]

If Dry is scum, then I don't know which of us is the chosen. I'd have to do a reread specifically for that to try to figure it out, but until then I couldn't even make a good guess. If Dry is a VT, then I would have to be the chosen by the process of elimination, as I know I'm not scum.

[Dry-fit]

How do you feel about my idea that you are a safe lynch for today?

Not really convinced at this time.

@Mitey: I can see missing BC's vote for you D1, but how did you forget about your vote for me last game day?

[MiteyMouse]

Yeah...I've got no real excuses beside that I just looked at the chart. I'm flakey, flighty and forgetful...I need to start taking notes in games again. I stopped and my play has really gone downhill since.

Right now, I still in a toss up as to the 2 of you.

Hero and his "confirmed Town" thing really rubs me the wrong way but, he does have a few really strong points. Like bussing so early. I can understand bussing early but, coming in right away and bussing is kind of a dick move (in the nicest way possible). Also, he has bee talking a ton more than both Dry and I and this looks Town to me. That and there has been some frustration trickling into his posts...this really strikes me as someone who is trying to get the other people to talk and it's not working...and the frustration that comes with that.

Dry only seems to pop in either when he's under suspicion or asked a direct question. I get the feeling that he's sitting back and watching Hero and I duke it out until one of us gets frustrated enough to vote.

I guess that I'm not really all that torn as, Hero has had some really redeeming stuff along with the Scummy...Dry, not so much.

On top of that, Dry does look like the safest lynch of the 3 of us right now. I think I'm almost ready to place that vote.

[Herodotus]

I intend to make a reread of at least BC/Dry before I vote. That should be soon. This game is starting to feel like it's dragging, so I look forward to finishing, but I don't want to screw it up out of boredom.

Once I've voted, I doubt I'll move my vote at all after that, unless we have a deadline issue.

[MiteyMouse]

I intend to make a reread of at least BC/Dry before I vote. That should be soon. This game is starting to feel like it's dragging, so I look forward to finishing, but I don't want to screw it up out of boredom.

I agree wholeheartedly!