Mini 817: Chosen (Game Over!)

[Herodotus]

You mean how can they confirm themself as town? As I said, we will see.

[Dry-fit]

Initial thoughts: I think Mitey has is more likely scum than Herod, considering how she attacked both of us yesterday.

Herod, from how you worded your statement the person who can confirm themself as town is obviously not you, so why not tell us how they would do it? Unless somehow if you told them they could no longer confirm themself?

[Herodotus]

@Dry-fit: Would you then support Zorblag's proposal that Mitey should self-vote?

The point about someone confirming themself wasn't quite right, but this is what I was thinking:

Assume all lynches are random*.
With 3 players alive, the scum have a 1/3 chance of winning.
If the scum had NoKilled, there was a 1/4 chance of lynching the Chosen today, and a 1/4 chance of lynching the scum today. A chosen lynch would be an auto-win, as the scum could NK another townie and endgame the last. That leaves a 1/2 chance of a townie lynch, leading to another NoKill and a final day with the scum having a 1/3 chance of winning. So the scum would have a 1/4 + 1/2 X 1/3 = 5/12 chance of winning.
5/12 > 1/3, so optimal scum play was to NoKill. Whoever was scum obviously wasn't aware of that, therefore if someone was to state that the optimal scum strategy was to NoKill, they would almost necessarily be town. Voila, nearly confirmed town.

* But this is where the whole idea breaks down. The lynches aren't random, so it is possible that killing Zorblag was a better strategy than a NoKill. Especially since we weren't going to lynch him.

[Herodotus]

@MiteyMouse:

What are your thoughts on which of Dry-fit or I is more likely to be scum?

Also, who do you think would have been lynched today if:
1. there had been no kill
2. you had been NKed
3. Dry-fit had been NKed

[Dry-fit]

@Dry-fit: Would you then support Zorblag's proposal that Mitey should self-vote?

Not at this time. As I said those were initial reactions and I need to give this some more thought and hear more from MiteyMouse before making a decision.

Hero, why didn't you ask about a scenario where you were nightkilled?

[MiteyMouse]

I might be on board with voting myself but, it is a scarey thing to do at this point as that will be the lynch. If I was sute that I was not the Chosen then I would vote myself right now...without hesitation!

[Herodotus]

Hero, why didn't you ask about a scenario where you were nightkilled?

I didn't think of it, but that's a good question too.

[MiteyMouse]

@MiteyMouse:

What are your thoughts on which of Dry-fit or I is more likely to be scum?

Also, who do you think would have been lynched today if:
1. there had been no kill
2. you had been NKed
3. Dry-fit had been NKed

1) probably me.
2) No idea...I'd say probably not Zorblag unless he was to self vote
3) Probably me...hehehe

As to which of you is Scum, I'm not sure yet. You hinting around me being able to confirm myself as Town by self voting is kind of striking me as eager Scum like and the fact that you didn't think of the scenario of you being Night killed is not making you look better. Right now, you have the lead.

[Herodotus]

You hinting around me being able to confirm myself as Town by self voting

What? Who said that?
I asked Dry-fit whether it was his belief that you should self-vote.

What you're saying doesn't even make sense. If anyone was to self-vote, the game would end -- confirmation of towniness would be meaningless.

[MiteyMouse]

Then what did you mean by being able to confirm as Town? I thought that you meant me and following Zorblag's plan.

[Herodotus]

@MiteyMouse:

What are your thoughts on which of Dry-fit or I is more likely to be scum?

Also, who do you think would have been lynched today if:
1. there had been no kill
2. you had been NKed
3. Dry-fit had been NKed

1) probably me.
2) No idea...I'd say probably not Zorblag unless he was to self vote
3) Probably me...hehehe

As to which of you is Scum, I'm not sure yet. You hinting around me being able to confirm myself as Town by self voting is kind of striking me as eager Scum like and the fact that you didn't think of the scenario of you being Night killed is not making you look better. Right now, you have the lead.

Do you have an answer about that scenario of my being NKed?

Also, I'd like for you to expand on the second scenario, please. Zorblag was pretty clear about (1) his suspicions, and (2) who he thought were the most likely to be the chosen. Please try to extrapolate.

[Herodotus]

Then what did you mean by being able to confirm as Town? I thought that you meant me and following Zorblag's plan.

therefore if someone was to state that the optimal scum strategy was to NoKill, they would almost necessarily be town. Voila, nearly confirmed town.

I know I said it in the same post that I asked that question of Dry, but I felt that it was clear that this was what I meant.

[Herodotus]

Mitey: so far you have

N3 no kill (Dry, Her, MM, Troll alive) => probable Mitey lynch
N3 Dry killed (Her, MM, Troll alive) => probable Mitey lynch
N3 MM killed (Dry, Her, Troll alive) => ?
N3 Herodotus killed (Dry, MM, Troll alive) => ?

Your lack of answer on the third scenario in particular makes me wonder a little if you have knowledge that it is impossible (i.e. you are mafia.)

There is a point to this, and I'm anxious to get to it.

[MiteyMouse]

My lack of answer for the thrid is actually more of me thinking that I wouldn't have to worry about it...I'd be dead and Zorblag would be in here...hehehe! I'd be sitting and watching with the rest of the dead.

If it was Zorblag, Dry-fit and I here, without a doubt, I would be voting for Dry...that being said, we all know that Zorblag was Town and I know that I am too.

I'm anxious to see the point too. I'm at a complete toss up right now as to which of you is the Scum!

[Herodotus]

:sigh:

Dry-fit, if you, Zorblag, and I were alive, which player do you think would be most likely lynched (given that we now know Zorblag was a VT)?

[Dry-fit]

My lack of answer for the thrid is actually more of me thinking that I wouldn't have to worry about it...I'd be dead and Zorblag would be in here...hehehe! I'd be sitting and watching with the rest of the dead.

So you refuse to answer the question?

Dry-fit, if you, Zorblag, and I were alive, which player do you think would be most likely lynched (given that we now know Zorblag was a VT)?

Probably me.

[MiteyMouse]

I'm not refusing to answer, I wouldn't have any control over what happened after so, it is not my place to speculate...

[Herodotus]

I'm not refusing to answer, I wouldn't have any control over what happened after so, it is not my place to speculate...

Speculation is a pretty important part of mafia, IMO.

Anyways, here's what I'm thinking.

Suppose I was scum.

That would mean one of you was the chosen, and I would win if and only if that one was lynched.
If Mitey was the chosen, I could have killed Dry last night, and Mitey says that probably would have led to her lynch.
If Dry was the chosen, I could have killed Mitey last night, and Dry says that probably would have led to his lynch.
In both cases, I agree, though I think it would have been even better for me to no kill. Anyways, my point is that I-as-scum could have had a nearly guaranteed win if I had made any NK

other than Zorblag

, but the kill on Zorblag makes things more difficult for me.
Therefore, the last NK makes no sense for me if I was scum. (The Papa Zito kill didn't help me either, but that's not as important.)
Consequently, you can assume I'm town.

Now, would the two of you please each tell me why the other is the scum, and you are not? I can't decide. And you may as well vote each other; I won't hammer until I'm pretty confident.

[MiteyMouse]

Ok...seriously. Zorblag being killed confirms you as Town? That makes no sense what so ever. Zorblag was easily the most Town of all of us left. Dry fit and I have been kind of going at it for a while so, leaving us both here can allow you the luxury of waiting until the non Chosen places a vote on the Chosen...really the same can be said for whichever of us is Town. I went after both of you yesterday but, I'm a late voter so, I might not make it so easy if I'm the non Chosen.

You just took the lead for who I think is Scum...perhaps you and Dry should tell me why the other is Scum and vote for each other and let me be the deciding vote.

[Herodotus]

Zorblag was the most town-looking, I agree. But since he was a VT, if he was alive, the scum would not want to get him lynched; they would want him to vote for the chosen. You have already agreed that you would probably have been lynched (if you're town, that means Zorblag would have voted for you and the scum would have jumped on) if Dry or no one had been killed. Do you dispute that Herodotus-scum would have had a much easier win in that scenario if you were the chosen? Would you dispute that a similar argument applies to Dry-fit if he was the chosen (especially a no kill, followed by a MM-VT lynch)?

LOL at your second paragraph.

[MiteyMouse]

Hero...did you ever answer your own questions? I think the answers might be interesting.

[Herodotus]

My answers are generally in agreement with yours and Dry's.

N3 no kill (Dry, Her, MM, Troll alive) => probable Mitey lynch; if Mitey is a VT, then a probable Dry lynch on the following day.
N3 Dry killed (Her, MM, Troll alive) => probable Mitey lynch
N3 MM killed (Dry, Her, Troll alive) => probable Dry lynch
N3 Herodotus killed (Dry, MM, Troll alive) => probable MM lynch

Basically, Zorblag and I probably would never have voted each other or self-hammered, because we both thought that both of us were town and that more likely than not, one or the other of us was the chosen. So the other player(s) might be lynched, but neither of us would likely be.


This thread need more Dry-fit.

[Dry-fit]

Now, would the two of you please each tell me why the other is the scum, and you are not? I can't decide. And you may as well vote each other; I won't hammer until I'm pretty confident.

Wow. So you're advocating a strategy that would result in an instant win if you are scum?

MAJOR FoS: Herodotus

[MiteyMouse]

Hero...your current strategy smells really, really bad. Why don't you place a vote and see what happens with it as opposed to asking us to each vote each other so you can pop your vote on to whichever of us is the Chosen. The fact that you want us both to place a vote and have you pick is more Scummy than I can possibly say right now. I want to wait a bit but, if I had to place a vote right now, you would be it Hero!

[Herodotus]

Wow. Did you

both

have to be so scummy in your responses?

I made a comprehensive - and

valid

- argument for why it is illogical to think I'm scum. I further decided to put the question to the scum by asking him/her to vote for the other player. It seemed to me that the scum would only go along with the plan of "Now, would the two of you please each tell me why the other is the scum ... and vote each other" if the chosen was the other townie, and not myself. Thus if you did both vote each other and try to convince me, it would mean that I wasn't the chosen, so I would self-hammer. If, on the other hand, one of you was opposed to my idea, while the other was okay with it, that would mean it was very unlikely that the one willing to go along with the idea was the chosen, which would make them a safe lynch.

Mitey's reaction to that was to dispute the conclusion without disputing the argument. She further wanted me and Dry-fit to vote each other, even though none of her play has made a pro-town impression on

anyone

throughout this entire game. This fits the profile of MM-scum Herodotus-chosen. In fact, I was becoming pretty sure this was the case as of post 646.
However, Dry-fit's lurking was bothering me, so I wanted to hear from him first. Sadly, his response is pretty similar to Mitey's, and a bit of a piggy-back. His presence in this game remains minimal. This gives me the impression that he may be scum trying to take advantage of Mitey-town's irrational paranoia or lack of comprehending what I wrote.

So, as I said, you are now both looking scummy. Whichever of you is town, I'm going to be pretty upset about your play on this day.

If either of you actually wants to make a case on me, then please start by explaining:

1. Why I would bus my partner - hard - starting less than 6 hours after replacing in, and at a point where most people weren't suspicious of Raivann, including telling Papa Zito:

Anyway,

unvote; vote: Raivann

. Pressure produces results.

Pressure? I want this to be a lynch wagon. Do you, or do you not?

even though I had a town read on PZ, and he was a vanilla.

2. Why I would NK the two players - Papa Zito and Zorblag - who seemed to have the strongest town reads on me.

3. How Zorblag-town and PZ-town developed such a strong pro-town read on me, and why their reasons were wrong.

4. Most importantly:
Why I would give up what you both seem to agree would be a nearly certain win for myself by not entering one of the Day 4 scenarios we discussed.

5. Whether you feel comfortable about the other player expressing suspicion of me, and whether this looks to you like an indication that I may be the chosen. Also, do the NK's on Papa Zito and Zorblag look to you like an indication that whoever the scum player is wants me to be lynched?

6. If I'm scum, then who is the chosen? Are you okay with lynching the other player, or not? (Note: this point is for argument, it's not a suggestion.)