The Manor: Chzo Mafia (Game Over!)

[Stephoscope]

someone remind me where LC claimed vanillager, I think I missed that ^_^;

3675

[dramonic]

that claim is very... lacking

[Lamont_Cranston]

Devestation, surely you have an opinion on whether Percy's assertion that there's a section of the Innocent PM that Lamont (who has absolutely claimed vanilla) should know but doesn't?

OMG. This is so much razzle dazzle from scum. If you're going to quote that post then quote the ones where I refuse to participate in obvious rolefishing by Zazier.

Besides, this is such a red herring issue -- he has been looking at EVERYTHING other than the fact that we have only 3 people left uncleared. I mean this is SO scum aware its sick.

[dramonic]

Are you saying Stepho or Dev is scum now?

[Lamont_Cranston]

Or that he should be able to clear up inconsistencies...whatever it is that Percy's saying.

This would be a hell of a risky gamble for Percy if he's scum.

What?? NO this is desperation by Percy! Can't you see he has no choice?? See he knows Zazier is scum and he is scum. So he is forced to pretend like its SO confusing and he has to stumble around and eventually pick the townie to vote for. I mean if he was town he would just be voting me as obv-scum and end game.

I mean its so obvious he is not town here.

[Lamont_Cranston]

Are you saying Stepho or Dev is scum now?

Devestation could be the GF. Stepho can't be scum or we've lost anyway.

[Stephoscope]

Unvote
Vote: Lamont_Cranston

seems like a lifetime ago we had the devil-smiley issue...looks like I was right all along

[Percy]

I mean if he was town he would just be voting me as obv-scum

I am voting you. You lied about your claim. You are obv-scum.

[Lamont_Cranston]

I mean if he was town he would just be voting me as obv-scum

I am voting you. You lied about your claim. You are obv-scum.

LOL. And it took you HOW LONG to actually get there?? The fact that it took you so long is why you are confirmed scum. It is scum aware to try and confuse things as much as you did. A townie would of just voted properly.

Everybody needs to get that through their thick sculls so the town has a chance of winning today. Again, it does only come down to a chance even though we know who 2 of the 3 scum are. Its the GF where we will have to guess.

After we lynch Percy & Zazier it will be "Guess the GF time".

[Knight of Cydonia]

Okay, I'm back, sorry for the delay, there's been literally zero mobile coverage in this area for the last few days.

[Percy]

Lamont, you said you had the Innocent Role PM, but you don't.

The inconsistencies in Dev's claim have already been pointed out. All I've asked you to do is clear them up for us. You can't. So you die.


Also, for the record, wanting to think things through and get a handle of the situation in LyLo is the

worst scumtell ever

.

@Mod: Please prod ZazieR.

Also, could you update the OP with kill/lynch results? Thanks.

[Knight of Cydonia]

Expect it to be done in the next 12 hours.

And you're welcome. Everyone else could learn a lesson in courtesy from Percy, class. Now get back to your deadly alphabets.

[Devestation]

Vote: Lamont Cranston

Gut feeling. Sorry, but the gut feeling has been there all game.

[Knight of Cydonia]

OP updated, Zazier prodded.

[dramonic]

All this is getting confusing ><

If I may suggest a different approach: Considering we pretty much KNOW that 2 of the 3 unconfirmed are scum, let's observe the possibilities

4-3-1
5-2-1
5-3

Actually, for once the safest thing would be to no-lynch. We can have Amished keep steph alive and steph investigate one of the three not confirmed. If he hits scum we lynch that one, if he hits town we lynch the two others. Mislynching right now could prove deadly.

Also, for whoever is third party: In the current situation, soloing is not a good idea, if you don't put your own WC aside to help the town you're as screwed as the town. If you can not kill, that would be the best thing for you to do for your own victory.

[dramonic]

with this being said:

Vote: No Lynch

[Amished]

With worst case scenario being the 4-3-1 (3rd party needs to whittle down mafia too, essentially making it the 5-3) assuming only 1 kill tonight (like it has been) we'd have 4-3, a sure lynch (either guilty, or we have the 5-2-1 where the 3rd party is more like a survivor and we'll hit scum with going after one of the other unknowns), and more investigations. Even if it's O.o small scum group, then it'd be 6-2, and we still don't have to worry about it really. I'd be down for a no-lynch, even though I'm pretty sure LC would hit scum, I'm not willing to bet a game on it.

Vote: No Lynch

[Percy]

OK, this is what I've got, assuming NL and max possible kills.

5v3 -> 4v3 (perhaps better, as long as Steph's target doesn't get NKed)
4v3v1 -> 2v3v1 (virtually unwinnable for town), 3v2v1 (about the same degree of badness as today, and possibly without an investigation if Steph's target is NKed), 3v3v0 (game over man, game over), 4v2v1 (crosskills ftw).
5v2v1 -> 3v2v1 (still winnable, same reservations as above), 4v1v1 (one for one trade = good), 4v2v0 (somewhat less good, but still good), 5v1v0 (best ever).

Assuming max kills, L_C town+lynch, things don't look nearly as good.

I'm 99.99999% certain that L_C is scum, having lied about receiving the Innocent PM and playing like panicky scum all day. There is, however, a nagging (0.000001%) voice in my head saying that this is too good to be true.

Unvote

. I have to think on this some more.

[Lamont_Cranston]

I am 100% certain that Percy is scum but I understand the dilemma the town is in. I advocated NL earlier but I wasn't sure about it becaue I was thinking the town might still lose. If the town can benefit from NL it would mean that we are in MYLO and not LYLO.

Can we discuss this a bit before I change my vote? Because if it is LYLO we will still lose if we NL.

Also, ftr I'm not 3rd party here.

[Percy]

EBWOP:

4v3v1 -> 2v3v1 (virtually unwinnable for town), 3v2v1 (about the same degree of badness as today, and possibly without an investigation if Steph's target is NKed), 3v3v0 (game over man, game over), 4v2v1 (crosskills ftw).

Final possibility should read 4v2v0.

[dramonic]

Its not a problem if steph's investigation dies. All we need is to find the townie in the three of you. Getting killed is one method.

Whats more,if there is a GF, and both Amished and Steph stay alive (assuming none of them is 3rd party) Scum as no choice but to:

1-Kill a confirmed innocent, shrinking the gf pool
2-kill a non-confirmed innocent, basically revealing two on their team.

We may not have lynched any scum left, but victory is quite possible for the town

Ill say it again: 3rd party, dont kill, You'll probably give the game to scum if you do.

[populartajo]

Grandpa had car accident. No access until things get better. If I take too long please replace me.

[Stephoscope]

Now that it's clear that Lamont just can't answer the role PM issue, I'd like to hear exactly what the inconsistencies/omissions were that he couldn't address.

I am uncomfortable with the idea of a no-lynch if we have caught scum and there's weird stuff that happens as the game progresses. Amished, what do you think about that? As always, I'm not fishing by any means--share whatever you think is appropriate--I just don't have the feeling that time is on our side.

We also can't forget that, because of what that doll might do, no one is truly clear right now.

As such, I think a no-lynch is anti-town if Lamont is definitely scum. So what all couldn't he address?

[Amished]

I was confused about the back and forth between LC and Percy as well. I couldn't get a straight read either way. The way I see it is that most of our weird stuff has come from items, and we haven't gotten any for a long time. With my personal uncertainty towards LC, Percy and Zaz; and unknown number of scum I feel that we very well could be in Mylo instead of Lylo. Even with three scum (regardless of GF or not); we've only had one kill a night for a long time. That would leave us in 4t-3s (currently assuming 5t-3s just due to the fact that a third party does have to try to get both town and scum whittled down, and scum is the primary objective as they're the more powerful and immediate threat right now). Given that I have at least 3 protections, if we do get a scum through investigation tomorrow, I'll have more investigations than scum has people. In that case, I don't see how we can lose. So I'm playing the safe and most likely to win way, and hoping that if a powerful item comes up scum won't be able to get it and swing it back in their favor. If an item does come up, we still have the odds to more than likely get the item.

That's my current thought process, but I'd like to hear from both Percy and LC to give *concise* examples of why they feel the other is obvscum, due to what they're trying to twist or misinterpret or misunderstand or ignore.

[Percy]

I've been in many games where one townie makes an incorrect snap decision in LyLo and it costs the town the game. I wanted to explore all the possibilities, and see if I could come up with a solid case (rather than just trying to play the numbers game).

L_C, however, said that the game was already over. With L_C, ZazieR and myself the only "unconfirmed" players, he maintained that I should have been screaming for his lynch from the beginning of the day, and calling him obvscum. I don't understand this from a townie's point of view - if you think the prevailing theory requires you to be scum, then there's something wrong with the theory. Either that, or you're scum.

He further criticised me for "confusing" things, such as exploring the possibility that Steph is naive or scum. Whilst I have come to the conclusion that Steph is almost certainly neither of those things, I think it was worth considering.

He then started claiming that it was "proven" that the scum have the Innocent Role PM, and that discussion of the PM was not something anyone should be doing. I recalled from my re-read just how poorly L_C reacted to Dev's claim, and how he later claimed that the reason he hadn't talked about it since was for tactical reasons. I gave him an opportunity to clear himself using the Innocent Role PM (which he claimed to have received) by clearing up the inconsistencies in Dev's claim.

I will post exactly what L_C has failed to post, if that's what the town wants.

L_C has simply ignored me and told me I'm distracting everybody, when in truth it has been L_C himself who has been doing the distracting.

As I outlined above, there is a chance that NL will cost us the game - for example, if it's 4v3v1 and there are two kills, one of them on a townie and one of them on the "1" faction, the game is toast.

I think my case is strong enough, so that lynching L_C is comparably risky with going NL. I'll do a bit more meditating on this situation and place my vote in my next post.