Mafia 96 - Murder in Emerald City (Game Over!)

[Lowell]

*iz ded*

[Xylthixlm]

I don't see a breadcrumb from ckd. Claim is dubious at best.

Gut says curiouskarmadog and Kmd are both scum. Probably different teams.

SpyreX is going to be flabbergasted. Kmd is Cerulean, curiouskarmadog and Faraday are Vermillion. I think.

This is my working theory.

Pretty sure Kublai Khan is town due to his reaction at the end of yesterday (among other reasons).
Still pretty sure SpyreX is town.
Wickedestjr is definitely town.
I know I'm town.

That leaves 3 scum in (Kmd, curiouskarmadog, Faraday, SerialClergyman). So... figure out who's towniest and lynch one of the others. Another mislynch here would be really bad.

Right now I think SerialClergyman is towniest. Working theory is intact.

---

SerialClergyman, what do you think of the Lowell flip?

Wickedestjr, what do you think of the Lowell flip?

curiouskarmadog, did you breadcrumb your first hide target anywhere?

Kublai Khan, out of (Kmd, curiouskarmadog, Faraday, SerialClergyman), who do you think is town?

SpyreX, out of (Kmd, curiouskarmadog, Faraday, SerialClergyman), who do you think is town?

[SerialClergyman]

Mokay.

My suggestion is that Faraday is the best lynch. He was the most suspicious yesterday, and I've been through the thread and think that I've found a few things that are suspect.

I'm not sure about CKD being town, but I think I've come to an uneasy peace with it for now. He still haven't answered some questions about deadline, like his thoughts on Spyrex remaining consistent before and after the bah gotown post, and I can't help but be very suspicious of someone who doesn't post until asked that they know someone is innocent. Could we get more info on your role and choices, CKD? Unless you think it would hurt the town?

Spyrex went down a lot at deadline yesterday for me. It was an over the top switch, and it was odd that he believed that ckd was hammered (means at the very least he didn't realise his own vote was L-2 not L-1), and giving me the quick, quick, ticking clock thing when it was a really tough decision that I actually had all of 12 hours to make.

Wicked is town.

KK is almost certainly town.

Xyl is looking very town-ly. His defence of Lowell was either a stupidly brilliant gambit of some kind to frame the game how he wanted, or Occham says he's town and his gut was right.

Kmd is suspicious. Voted me at the start of the day, essentially iddn't participate until being called out as slightly scummy near the very end of the day when he was posting all over the shop. Voted both the major wagons then hammered Lowell in the middle of a genuine discussion about what to do.

Xyl - I am frustrated by the Lowell flip. I think he just didn't do the work required to clear his name. I had a case on him that noone even mentioned that I was actually quite convinced by. He could have explained why he was making self-preservation posts, could have linked to meta, could have talked about why he was wagon hopping yesterday - there was so much he could have done apart from coming in and saying 'I'm not a neighbor' and then leaving again. Possibly it's bitterness at getting it wrong, but I just expect people to do more, especially at this point in the game.

In terms of the game, I think it opens the game right up. You can mostly see my reactions above. I think it means you're looking much more town. I'm not ruling scum out, but I think it's very unlikely you'd have done what you did if you were scum. I have a feeling we're looking for a Vermillon partnership, with the neighbor being one of their power roles (the other should be a PR as well.) The whole deadline day also made me suspect Spyrex - he was the one deflecting from CKD to Lowell, he was the one rushing the decision, agreeing with the bogus votecount and his plan isn't exactly fullproof. Having said that, it only makes sense if CKD is scum with him, so I think I'd prefer CKD first if we were going to lynch based on those events.

Ok - so my case on Faraday. Mostly - he's been useless. He's had no real scumhunting all game. Perhaps his biggest case ever was on Hayker, who he then promptyl unvoted at the mason claim and then left himself unvoted ALL THROUGH THE DAY while everyone else were focusing on Xyl or Namttam. Given I now think both of them are town, it looks to me like he was just calmly avoiding the wagon on what he knew was likely to be town. If someone could point to a gutsy, good bit of scumhunting from him I'd be greatly surprised. Yesterday he was on the Lowell wagon and did essentially what Xyl was suspecting me and CKD of doing. But at least I and to some extend CKD tried to demonstrate why I thought Lowell was scummy, look for additional evidence, construct scumteams and the like, Faraday just sat there and let the vote sit on Lowell (and everyone else's vote sit on me).

Then I started looking back through his history and found a few suspicious posts. Note - this essentially assumes KK is town, so adjust suspicion accordingly.

Have a look at his early analysis of the miller claim.

Post 83

Miller claiming early is of benefit, means a cop won't waste investgation on him.

I guess it's possible your scum claiming miller but it seems a sub-optimal strategy to me for scum, due to 1) the attention that's drawn to a miller claim and 2) millers being vigged is very common, so yeh.

That's a subtle way of encouraging a vig, isn't it?

Then post 167

Eh you're going to have to explain to me how that's a scumslip Zazie.

Looks like teeing up a scummate to me. Very easy way of getting her more air time for her theory.

post 309

Ugh zazie seems to be asking some of the questions I'm asking, that's good in one way, in that it makes me feel better about her, but bad in a I want to ask them first way Yeh don't worry I'll not pout.

post 312

And as for KK, I don't like his confusion over his role at all. I think it's much more damning than any slip, btw. Surely if you're a miller you know you're a miller and not a death miller. Like, and if it wasn't clear from the role pm you pm the mod, or well I would Idk I've never been a miller.

Ok, so one post lending support to Zazie and then one soon after agreeing with the case on KK. This is making KK vigbait I think.

post 448

This is awful.
First directing the vig, I'm sure if we have a vig they can use their own discretion.

Hypocrasy, not to mention encouraging the vig in his own way I think.

same post

Yeh, this newbie game is where Ckool was town and was an easy mis-lynch.

I was scum in that game too.

Just read day 1 and it should give you an idea what he's talking about. But basically he seemed to put his fut in his mouth a few times, and was over eager and ended up looking pretty damn scummy.

Possible slip???

578 and 589 he starts to switch his view on the miller. It's all this sort of cautious dialog with Zazie and I'm not sure it's legit.

1044 says he will reread then nothing posted for a long expanse of time

1503

Quote:

What about Lowell? Anhy thoughts or comments on him?

I find it hard to read him as he doesn't seem to post a lot. I found his earlier posting after joining the game quite townie actually as his ideas were similar to a lot of mine.

Thinks Lowell is town - my how that changes...

1872 is a typical Lowell post, useless fluff.

2105

Hmm that's a fair list of assumptions.

5 and 6 in particular don't seem to be very strong.

What about Xyl and Sc's interactions with Zazie means they can't be vermillion, or even SC's Mastin interactions. I agree Xyl doesn't seem very likely cerulean, but yeh.

While 7 and 8 are in fact both true, the reasoning of me accusing him of something seems kinda weak. It is possible to state you're suspicious of your buddies. Unless you're saying the way it was done makes it unlikely but even still.

Far more work done to discredit a few minor constructions done than he ever did to scumhunt. It's just more work derailing working theories without providing any real alternatives or fire or belief.

So that's my case. I think Faraday is Vermillon scum. If I had to pick a scumpartner, I'd say KMD for the pattern of behaviour. The fact that they were both so quiet yesterday (and while V/LA for some of it, KMD certainly wasn't for all of it) and both were voting different people quietly yet both ended up on the same wagon to lynch a townie makes me suspicious of the pair, but Lowell should be the first lynch imo.

Vote Lowell

[SerialClergyman]

Whoops

Got confused ><

Can't lynch Lowell twice.

FARADAY should be first,

unvote dead lowell, Vote Faraday

[curiouskarmadog]

thoughts coming in (at the most) 48 hours.

[SpyreX]

SpyreX, out of (Kmd, curiouskarmadog, Faraday, SerialClergyman), who do you think is town?

Now, see, we have a conundrum of sorts.

CKD is a wildcard but unless its some KK-scum, CKD-scum SUPER GAMBIT (which would be awesome FYI). I'm going to buy it.

SC feels more and more town.

I still see KMD-Faraday connections and after rethinking a millionth time I still dont like Faraday's night comment (I was thinking of it as scum bussvoting but it sure as hell could be scum thinking they nailed other-scum).

I'm also, with Lowell being town, a little more worried about Xyl.

If it was two seconds to hammer and everyone was at L-1 right now I'd vote Faraday or KMD. Leaning Faraday by a small margin.

[Xylthixlm]

I am confused how Lowell being town would make you

more

worried about me. Elaborate.

[SpyreX]

Its a niggling feeling - you're still town jsut a little worried but allow me to try and parse it out:

Xyl-scum comes out and sets up a wagon. Wagon takes off like wildfire. Xyl leaps off once it has reached critical mass and then gets doubleprofit for pulling the rabbit out of your hat.

It'd be magnificent, like the KK-CKD scumteam doublefake claims.

So, I doubt its true.

[Xylthixlm]

What's the KK-CKD connection?

[Xylthixlm]

Oh right, he claimed he hid with Kublai.

You realize that KK can be town and CKD scum, right?

[iamausername]

-=Vote Count #68=-

Faraday (1) - SerialClergyman

Not Voting (7) - curiouskarmadog, Faraday, Kmd4390, Kublai Khan, SpyreX, Wickedestjr, Xylthixlm

5 to lynch.

[Kmd4390]

Vote Serial

That's the only lynch I want to see today.

[Wickedestjr]

*Catching up*

I thought he was totally obv scum, and then he claimed, and now I don't.

Why exactly did the town claim make you think he was town?

I think the remaining scum are in Lowell, SC, Xyl and KMD.

What about CKD? You never mentioned him in the post you made this sentence.

Lowell has to be scum, I'm sure of it.

What do you have to say about it now?

KMD, I have seen you post paragraphs upon paragraphs of detailed thoughts...here you are lurking...why?

KMD = Scum


*KMD - Why did you wait so long to make a post like post number 2203? And also, why did you start posting more? What happened to cause that increase in post frequency?

If you say I have no stance, Serial is my top suspect. I have been voting him practically forever and want him lynched ASAP.

I don't recall you posting a case.


I'm only at page 90 so far. Sorry about that. I should be caught up tomorrow if I'm lucky. But so far, my reads still stand.

Could everybody post their scumlist please? Thank you.

@SerialClergyman - Have you been scum in any recent games that have finished?

Okay, just so people know where I stand. Here is my scum list (higher up the list are the people I have the strongest town reads on);


Town;
Kublai Khan


Neutral;
Xylthixlm
SerialClergyman
Faraday


Scum;
curiouskarmadog
SpyreX
Kmd4390


Oh, and one more thing I'd like to point out. SpyreX's play is nothing like his play in Twilight Mafia that just finished. He was town in that game, and posted much more content in that game. Just something I'd like you to think about.

[Kublai Khan]

Wow, people are charging into today still making wild accusations against each other? Look people, stop. Let's calm down a second and stop acting like an unruly mob. Let's think this through a bit.

Let's start at the beginning by reviewing what we know and don't know:

• We know that we have two mafia groups (Cerulean and Vermillion). This is evidenced by the death reveal and that the kills have been consistent with the theory.
  
• 2 Cerulean power roles are dead and 1 Vermillion goon is dead. There is an unaccounted for neighbor role so that suggests that the two mafia groups don't mirror each other. This opens up the possibility that one group (prob. Vermillion) possibly has 3 members left. If that's the case, then I think that we're near or at LYLO. So let's be careful with our votes.
  
• We have a confirmed mason (Wickedestjr) that is beyond suspicion. A claimed miller (me) and a claimed hider (curiouskarmadog). I think it's probably a good move at this point to have a mass roleclaim so that we can get all info on the table for best decision making.

Some speculation:
I'm still incredibly suspicious that curiouskarmadog is lying about his role claim. However both mafia groups targetted a mason, which means that he might be telling the truth. If he was a member of the mafia, then there was a 50% chance that both masons could have died and he'd be exposed. I can't picture the last Cerulean risking that, so if curiouskarmadog is scum, then he's Vermillion.

@Xyl:
I really hope that you're not scum as you're the towniest looking unconfirmed player at the moment. I'm going to hold off answering your question until I collect a little more info (i.e. after a mass claim). And I still don't see how SpyreX is so town-looking to you. He's among one of my top suspects.

[SerialClergyman]

What do you have to say about it now?

Xyl asked me something very similar and this was my response:

Xyl - I am frustrated by the Lowell flip. I think he just didn't do the work required to clear his name. I had a case on him that noone even mentioned that I was actually quite convinced by. He could have explained why he was making self-preservation posts, could have linked to meta, could have talked about why he was wagon hopping yesterday - there was so much he could have done apart from coming in and saying 'I'm not a neighbor' and then leaving again. Possibly it's bitterness at getting it wrong, but I just expect people to do more, especially at this point in the game.

In terms of the game, I think it opens the game right up. You can mostly see my reactions above. I think it means you're looking much more town. I'm not ruling scum out, but I think it's very unlikely you'd have done what you did if you were scum. I have a feeling we're looking for a Vermillon partnership, with the neighbor being one of their power roles (the other should be a PR as well.) The whole deadline day also made me suspect Spyrex - he was the one deflecting from CKD to Lowell, he was the one rushing the decision, agreeing with the bogus votecount and his plan isn't exactly fullproof. Having said that, it only makes sense if CKD is scum with him, so I think I'd prefer CKD first if we were going to lynch based on those events.

[SerialClergyman]

Simulposted.

I think it's unlikely that it's lylo, I'm still thinking that there are two Vermillon and one Cerulean left. But I'll

unvote

for safety.

I like your logic about CKD, but don't find him as suspicious as you. I'm still waiting for a more detailed rundown of his role, thoughts and play yesterday and future plans.

I hate it when I make a long and detailed case against someone and almost everybody posts and doesn't even mention it. Do people agree? Does anyone find anything in there they hadn't noticed? I'm getting quite convinced about Faraday.

I'm cool with a massclaim. I suggest Wicked picks the order, given he's confirmed, or we popcorn.

Wicked - I didn't answer your question about a scum meta, and the answer is no, I don't have any scum metas, I haven't played many games on MS.

[Xylthixlm]

SerialClergyman, I didn't really look at your case carefully because I already think Faraday is scum. You don't need to convince me.

[curiouskarmadog]

Ok, I think we are on a good track with a mass claim, it is a good idea at this point...I think a popcorn claim starting with Wick would be fine, OR dice rolling.

to partly answer Xyl question about a breadcrumb....I am pretty sure you know the answer to that (maybe not, since you came in today wanting to lynch me). Yes I did....to say anything else, would only help scum.

here are my thoughts...

after last night, I am sure I am not going to see endgame.

I think the assumption that we are probably facing 4 scum left (3 Ver and 1 Cer) is probably correct...unless 2 ver have a power role.

Wick and KK are town.

that leaves, Xyl, SC, KMD, Faraday, and Spy...3 or 4 out of those 5 are scum. Which sort of sucks. Yesterday before I thought I was lynched, if I had to pick one of those to be town....I would have said Xyl, SC, or Faraday...after that....just Xyl

KMD is scum...after (re)reading Faraday...sure he is scum too. Had a feeling both of these were going to show up and agree with Xyl's first post...but both seem to be sitting back waiting.....for whatever reasons. Maybe to see where the tide goes.

Between Xyl, Spy, and SC...Xyl looks like he is scum hunting the most. Now that doesnt mean anything, because if he is scum, he wants to a.) look town, and b.) eliminate the other scum group....but out of those 3 he is currently the most town...and even though he apparently is still pushing for my lynch, he is no where near the lynch today.

Spy, I didnt like how he followed Xyl around yesterday. The plan to hide behind a mason was good (I guess), but had a feeling that scum would aim that way last night. and both teams did. if he hadnt said that plan, scum might have targetted each other for a cross kill. As it stands, scum thought I might hide behind the mason, so they both went for a 2 for 1 kill.

SC, was feeling good about until he suddenly flipped his opinion of me when he found out I was a power role.

ugh, out of those 3, I dont know. Xyl maybe? I dont think either of those 3 should be the lynch today.

(pre)claim, I am only willing to lynch Faraday and KMD.

[curiouskarmadog]

mod, please prod faraday and KMD

I would like to hear their thoughts BEFORE a claim if we do one.

I also want to hear their thoughts ABOUT the claim.

[curiouskarmadog]

sorry for triple post, this weekend, I am going to be traveling (my work is sending me on detail for the month away from home)...probably no posting then....however, I will be bored out of my mind for the next month...so frequency of posting will increase after this weekend..

posting this is all games.

[Xylthixlm]

to partly answer Xyl question about a breadcrumb....I am pretty sure you know the answer to that (maybe not, since you came in today wanting to lynch me). Yes I did....to say anything else, would only help scum.

Bullshit. If you breadcrumbed who your hide target was the night you hid with Kublai Khan, point it out.

[curiouskarmadog]

why do you want to know so bad?

trying to figure out what night I hid?

why?

[SpyreX]

Today is the time for massclaim. Definitely. Make sure that when you claim include all pertinent information.

Meta'ing me against twilight is going to be a poor idea. But, with the mason coming out and saying I'm a suspect I'm expecting the wagon.

I'm going to run with KK, CKD, Wicked as town. CKD, of course, isn't CLEAR but that kind of gamble would be something special as scum.

That leaves, KMD, Faraday, Xyl, SC.

Assuming three-of-four its KMD and Faraday for sure.

Now, yesterday really flowed like a town-on-town fight. However, numerically ONE of them all but has to be scum.

Right now I'd lean on that, surprise, being SC. However, on the off chance that the numbers are off I would prefer to go with the pair that I am more confident with.

Unvote, Vote: Faraday

[Xylthixlm]

why do you want to know so bad?

trying to figure out what night I hid?

why?

Stop bullshitting and claim it.

[Xylthixlm]

vote: curiouskarmadog

Not moving for any reason until he claims his breadcrumb.