California Trilogy: City of Angels - Off Stage (Game Over)

[zwetschenwasser]

What is this soundtrack you speak of?

[Bagel Eating Cowfrog]

Read the thread.

-dahill

[Gaspar]

Gaspar, you seem so dead-set on this that I'm kinda wanting to test your theory about our beloved Director. That said, I'm also a bit wary that you seem to have so much game knowledge that I don't.

I am dead-set on this. And I have no information that anybody else does not have. All I'm going off of is based on the given Innocent win condition, the fact that MafiaJin chose to put himself in the thread, and his responses to my inquiry about that. For the record, here they are:

MafaiJin: The only question I demand you answer ASAP is why you chose to put

yourself

on-camera. This indicates to me that you're more interested in choosing the On-Camera choices than on participating in Day One, which concerns me.

So that at least one town player will be in the Scene. Or at least that's my reason.

-SSK

@Gaspar answer my previous reason, since you originally asked the question of me anyways. I agree that SSK's reason is weak by itself. Doesn't hurt though.

Your ignoring a win condition. If the advocate decision is as random as you feel, then you must also feel lynching is random. Both are based on an informed minority and a majority deciding on a path.

We cannot win this game with lynches alone as the endgame will be played on camera with impact made by decisions. By the same token we are unlikely to win with decisions alone as we will be put into endgame at disadvantage. We need both.


-Sajin

SSK's given reason makes zero sense whatsoever. I've explained this twice -- there aren't going to be 9 scumbags in a scene together, and if this game is the least bit balanced, it's EXTREMELY rare that there would be 5 scumbags in the opening scene.

Saijin's first paragraph basically agrees with me that his partner's reason is very weak.

Saijin's second paragraph mentions "ignoring a win condition."

This is HUGE.

Endgame rules state that no matter what, we will have 2 people with alignment [Something Else] (presumably Primary Non-Innocent Alignment?) and 5 Innocents. Any win condition other than the Innocent one (which I most certainly did NOT ignore) means the player is a threat to us Innocents. That's why I want MafiaJin in here to explain himself immediately.

Saijin's last point is invalid. We CAN win this game on lynches alone. If we lynch all but two scumbags before Day 7, they will automatically be put in their Worst Endgame Scenario, which I would assume is our BEST endgame scenario. From there, we just have to lynch the last two scumbags. I have acknowledged that Decisions aren't completely irrelevant, but I've been explaining for two solid pages now why lynching is more important to us.


So from where I'm sitting, I asked for an explanation and I got three complete crap points. MafiaJin is, at best, not a simple Innocent player. At worst, he's a direct threat to all of us.

[Bagel Eating Cowfrog]

I don't think it really makes a difference, as DGB's "case" isn't one I can particularly defend against.

SO why make the post after all?

[Bagel Eating Cowfrog]

uh, that was shanba

[GoofballsAndBaloons]

Gaspar has convinced me about the MafiaJin thing. I have a block of time reserved for reading the instructions carefully tomorrow. I will vote accordingly but only after I'm familiar with the rules.

-DGB

[Thok]

Gaspar, if MafiaJin does come up some form of scum, what do you think that says about the other three people he took with him on stage?

(I realize that the mafia probably wouldn't be so blatant as to move as many members as it could off stage.)

[Seraphim]

I dunno. People can't be lynched on-screen so it's entirely possible that MafiaJin took the scum team with him. Of course, this assumes that MafiaJin is scum which is probable but not my number one suspect currently.

I'll have more in the morning, I need to go to sleep.

[Bagel Eating Cowfrog]

New thoughts on CKD:
I think I've got it pretty clearly now. If he drives, he will turn into some kind of anti-town alignment the next day (Mafia?, SK?). If Valentine drives, he'll remain innocent but probably die somehow.

-dahill

[Bagel Eating Cowfrog]

Also, as for my thoughts on MafiaJin I'm still undecided on their alignment. I could see them as either opportunistic scum or a typically impulsive SSK. As I told my other heads, I want to see more of their actions before I make a firm decision.

-dahill

[Gaspar]

Gaspar, if MafiaJin does come up some form of scum, what do you think that says about the other three people he took with him on stage?

(I realize that the mafia probably wouldn't be so blatant as to move as many members as it could off stage.)

I've been thinking about this quite a bit, and I haven't decided. My current instincts say "0-1 other scumbags" because I wouldn't expect any half-brained scum to put all their eggs in one basket. Of course, it also might depend on how many preselected On-Camera actors are scumbags. I think the worst thing we can do is assume that the Scum-to-Innocent ratios On-Camera and Off-Stage are the same, or even close to one another. Fact is, we don't have any way of knowing that information until we see some corpses.

[Mighty Orbots]

Seraphim, is your primary suspect still Zwet?

Gaspar, I think the second point was directed at you: He was saying that

you

were ignoring one of the potential win conditions. I disagree on this point in the sense that our win condition isn't determined by what happens in any one thread but a combination of the two.

Your other two points are well taken though, especially the first. I find it highly suspect that the hydra can't even agree that the choices made were the best course of action. And I agree, we can win on lynches alone and honestly this should be our goal, because a series of good lynches triggers our best Phase 2 scenario.

The only thing that makes me hesitate here is that the stuntman job is currently held by the KY Krew hydra, which hasn't posted anything other than a confirm. There really is no excuse for this since one of the main reasons for having a hydra in the first place is to keep activity up, so I'm starting to suspect intentional lurking. Other than that though I support the switch.

-PZ

[GoofballsAndBaloons]

Rules read and understood. It wasn't so hard, actually. I get it. I'll explain it all to my hydra.

What's up with KY Krew? Vanishing act already? Or hard lurking? InHim is famous for vanishing acts, but raj isn't, so I'm leaning towards intentional lurking.

I think zwet is scum, he's real nervous and tentative, and not at all his usual self. I've never seen him that scummy. It's like he's trying to mete out his content to slow down the rate at which he's going to inevitably get caught. At some point, he showed that he has no idea what the soundtrack business is about, which is something his buddies, if he has any, might have explained to him. Mind you, he might not be paying attention to either the game or the QT. So although I'm strongly leaning scum for his alignment, I can't decide whether the soundtrack ignorance means he's actually town, or some kind of scum on his own.

MafiaJin needs to be taken care of, he's the forefront, and zwet and KY Krew are on the backburner.

In more positive news, my worries that players like Gaspar and Mighty Orbots may be scum are eased by their pro-town dedication and excellent logic, but I must remind myself to remain paranoid. They have fooled many before.

-DGB

vote: MafiaJin

, zwet, KY Krew, [everyone else], [Gaspar, Mighty Orbots], GoofballsAndBaloons

Tag fixed. Only bold actual votes, please. - Mod

[GoofballsAndBaloons]

Gaspar, if MafiaJin does come up some form of scum, what do you think that says about the other three people he took with him on stage?

If you don't mind my answering this question that is not addressed to me, I would say that if MafiaJin flips scum, at least one of the three people he took with him is scum, with nearly 100% certainty. Quite possibly exactly one.

Players chosen at random have closer to 1/3 chance of being scum than 2/3 chance of being scum. So there is no reason not to take a buddy along with him, if he were town, chances are pretty good that's what he'd end up with choosing a scum randomly anyway. Why waste that opportunity of bringing a buddy of his choice along, while keeping within the confines of what he would have done by chance? I am sure that opportunity was taken.

If he flips scum, and the players decide to examine which players he brought along with him, the chances of the town hitting scum among the players he brought with him are, again if choosing at random, nearly the same as if the town was choosing among the rest of the players, removing any advantage for the town to start lynching those players. That's because with bringing one buddy, the chances are 1/3, which is quite close to what it is among the remaining players.

Now I don't know if the MafiaJin hydra is a maverick risk taker in general. But that's what he'd need to be to have the guts to take 2/3 buddies along with him. If he's lynched and flips scum, the town will be shooting fish in a barrel. Players with better understanding of the members of this hydra will be able to make a better guess than me.

-DGB

[Mighty Orbots]

zwetschenwasser, Talilan has asked a question on camera that's directed to us:

Raises voice so everyone can hear her

Hey - Does anyone remember whether there can be two bad choices in a single scene? Or is there always at least one good choice that can be made?

Could you give them a picture that says as unambiguously as possible that there is one bad choice and one good choice? It's only for this scene but that should do for now; they can see the rest after this scene is over.

I assume that everyone is following what's going on on camera. I'm still inclined to think that they should have Val drive as, despite everything else which is going on (which leads me to believe that I hadn't realized how complicated these choices were), we know that there was one good choice and one bad choice. That both advocates said Val should drive almost certainly means it was the good choice and, as we've now established, we do learn whether the outcome was good or bad after the scene is over.

On the other hand, if we collectively disagree with my take then we should get that information to them (probably via the stuntman.)

For those of you who don't know the parts of MafiaJin well, keep in mind that in Lynch all Lurkers MafiaSSK thought that it was a good idea to fake a particularly poorly conceived of post restriction as a day talking, pro-town mason. I can't share my similar story about Sajin as it's in a game that's still going on. In any case, I really wouldn't make the assumption that they're doing things because it's the reasonable thing to do even if he did have access to the opinions of others. GoofballsAndBaloons's argument there for how likely he is to take other scum with him if he's scum doesn't take that into account. It actually also doesn't particularly take into account how many scum might have been in the initial actors on the stage already nor that if he's scum then he's already taking 1/4 of the group as scum with just himself. 1/4 is likely closer to the ratio of scum to players in the game than 1/2 which is what he'd be taking if he took a scum partner.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[zwetschenwasser]

I'm now about 90% sure DGB is town. She has made no attempt at manipulating the town with humor or charm, as she typically does as scum.

[Gaspar]

Gaspar, I think the second point was directed at you: He was saying that

you

were ignoring one of the potential win conditions. I disagree on this point in the sense that our win condition isn't determined by what happens in any one thread but a combination of the two.

I'm pretty sure you're misinterpreting the phrase "win condition." Go to your role PM and look at the last line. It says, in bold, "Win Condition:" then lists your role's win condition. Better yet, go look at the very end of this post. It describes, word-for-word, the Innocent

win condition

. Saijin said that I'm ignoring "a win condition" which means he is apparently dealing with a win condition other than the standard Innocent win conditon.

This is why he needs to explain himself or die.

[Mighty Orbots]

I'm pretty sure you're misinterpreting the phrase "win condition." Go to your role PM and look at the last line. It says, in bold, "Win Condition:" then lists your role's win condition. Better yet, go look at the very end of this post. It describes, word-for-word, the Innocent

win condition

. Saijin said that I'm ignoring "a win condition" which means he is apparently dealing with a win condition other than the standard Innocent win conditon.

This is why he needs to explain himself or die.

I see what you're saying now. It sounds like he let slip that he has multiple win conditions.

We need moar opinions on this issue.

[Mighty Orbots]

^^ PZ post. Sigh.

[zwetschenwasser]

I agree with Gaspar. It seems like a telling slip to me.

[Mighty Orbots]

Zwet, are you working on that image?

-PZ

[Bagel Eating Cowfrog]

I'm not sold. My gut is telling me this is overblown (and I'm incredibly wary of slips anyway). I don't see that his actions in putting himself on stage are the massive crime that Gaspar is making them out to be (at best a mistake, though). I don't feel the slip is particularly worthwhile. In short, I'm not a fan of the wagon.

Zwet, otoh, I think is looking pretty damn scummy. His post rebutting DGB is unusually long and detailed for him, and was already his second post addressing the situation; he's worried enough about it that he has to address it twice before giving any thoughts on the game. Yet when I quizzed him about it, he claimed that it was impossible to defend against anyway. So why spend such effort trying (and yes, for zwet that was a relatively large amount of effort). Then there's the buddying up to DGB, the person attacking him, which screams scum to me. I really think zwet is a much better lynch than MafiaJin.

-Shanba

[Bagel Eating Cowfrog]

...And this is the part where we are schizophrenic. I'm not as skeptical on the MafiaJin wagon as Shanba, but I do agree that Zwet is a much more worthwhile wagon. He's buddying like it's his job. Zwet, besides MafiaJin who else do you suspect at the moment, specifically Off Stage?

-dahill

Unvote
Vote: Zwet

, KY Krew, Rawr Hydra, [People], Mighty Orbots, ShadowLurker, No Lynch, Bagel Eating Cowfrog

[Thok]

Could somebody familiar with zwet's meta give me a rough idea of what you think is his typical scum and town behavior? (It seems like he's posting less than I would expect him to given his reputation, but I don't really agree with the buddying thing; he feels like a typical inexperienced player who is more focused on analyzing his attackers than on what else is happening in the game.)

I'm also a bit confused by the people in the On-Screen thread debating over whether to follow Locke or Valentine. I'm not sure whether they think the mod has lied to one or more of the advocates, or that both advocates are scum trying for a beneficial first decision, but neither of those positions really makes sense. (Mith may mislead, but he wouldn't lie, and scum wouldn't risk that much on the first decision unless they knew it was so important that it was worth risking two of their members.)

[Rawr Hydra]

(Kore)

Hello. I'm on narcotic painkillers to handle postsurgical complications, and OGML is on a road trip or something, and that's why we haven't posted.

I've read the thread, but I can't think clearly enough to contribute anything meaningful. If there are specific questions I can answer, or a particular issue I think I can manage, I will try to focus enough to address them.