Open 155 - Jungle Republic - Game Over before 816

[Netlava]

Hrm, I'm still leaning scum on Hero. However, I think the standard play is to wait and see.

Unvote, vote: falkomagno

[yabbaguy]

I'll switch back to falkwagoning now if there's enough support, but I don't think anyone wants to suddenly jolt back to him this late in the Day, Netlava. Sorry. :(

[Netlava]

Unvote, vote: Hero

Well, I'll still be up for a falko lynch if anyone is up for it. But looking at the 2 most likely lynches, I still prefer voting Hero over noramp, as noramp isn't on my scumlist.

[Noramp]

I'm starting to think Hero is telling us he's seer so he can live through Day 1 without actually trying hopefully getting a counter claim in the process. He starting to smell like a WW.

unvote

[Noramp]

@Zazie, we were down to two potential bandwagons and Yabba agreed with me. I'm not going to hammer myself and if I'm going to hammer Hero I'm going to ask him to claim. Now that he has claimed I don't know that I necessarily buy it and it actually makes me sort of suspicious of Hero.

[yabbaguy]

So 5 for Noramp, 4 for Hero, and Mastin, Noramp, and CO aren't on either wagon.

@Noramp-503: Why WW, specifically?

@Noramp-504: We don't need your vote to hammer you. Vote Hero, and chill out. Town or scum, it's your best move.

Now the weaseling you've been doing, like "kind of sort of suspicious" "actually maybe might be" , etc, to me, wreaks of underconfident scum, y'know, kind of... maybe seeing if the town agrees with you before you go full force on your argument. If we don't agree, you can just pin it on a "misunderstanding" or something. To me, a real townie would fearlessly go forward with convictions and not be afraid to speak out on who they think the scum is.

I think your lack of conviction has damned you again.

Confirm Vote: Noramp

Speed it up, folks... we have 36 hours.

Prod Mastin

[Noramp]

Well I wasn't suspicious of Hero but then with his claim of Seer, I'm somewhere in the middle. I don't know how to act confident when I'm not.

vote: Hero

Because scum don't care about the Seer its just another townie to them. WWs though hes the cop. If they could find him on day 1 at the cost of one of their WWs, that would be a fair trade to them I'm sure. So Hero seeing he's going down claims seer in the hope of a counter claim or if no one counter claims it raises the chances of him living through the day.

[ZazieR]

Mod

- Request deadline extension. Two players (Chaos and Falko) have stated words of V/LA, 3 players (Mastin, Flava and OP) have been inactive (

Please prod

) and one player (Cephrir) is getting replaced.

[yabbaguy]

Three V/LAs. *points at self*

[ZazieR]

You don't disregard statistics. They really do matter. You can skew them arbitrarily based on scum/town vibes, but the numbers do exist.

It comes down to behaviour. The numbers do exist, but numbers are more likely to be wrong. For example, in your statistics, you include all three the mafia. Who says that at least one of them will claim Seer?

In terms of stats of how often powerroles get suspicious, I don't know. I personally disagree with that, but if I'm wrong, I'd peg it on my relative inexperience. Why do you think that's the case, Zazie?

That what is the case?

However, let's take the scenario that Hero is scum as well. If Noramp flips town, we are in a worse situation. At least our real Seer will get an investigation, but if Hero's mafia, that's not going to do much for us.

Also, why would the Seer target Hero if Hero is fake-claiming?

[ZazieR]

Mod

- Request deadline extension. Three players (Chaos, Yabba and Falko) have stated words of V/LA, 3 players (Mastin, Flava and OP) have been inactive (

Please prod

) and one player (Cephrir) is getting replaced.

Fixed.
Meaning that over half of the players is inactive (Hero almost as well)

[ZazieR]

If this is the case, and the wolves don't kill Hero, the town and the wolves are gonna keep passing the buck. If this happens and Hero is scum, we lose.

If he's scum, we still have the real Seer?
Why should he counterclaim now when he can investigate now and counterclaim when needed to avoid a scum win by fake-claiming Hero if Hero's fake-claiming?

[ZazieR]

Unvote, vote: Hero

Well, I'll still be up for a falko lynch if anyone is up for it. But looking at the 2 most likely lynches, I still prefer voting Hero over noramp, as noramp isn't on my scumlist.

Why are you willing to lynch a claimed Seer?

[ZazieR]

@Zazie, we were down to two potential bandwagons and Yabba agreed with me. I'm not going to hammer myself and if I'm going to hammer Hero I'm going to ask him to claim. Now that he has claimed I don't know that I necessarily buy it and it actually makes me sort of suspicious of Hero.

Not buying this.
You either thought there was no deadline or you knew there was one for the 18th. Yet, you still wanted to lynch Hero:

guys im going to be forced to lynch hero soon because it gives us a better chance of catching scum. Idk if i really buy heros case but I know im not scum so either we've been swayed by the scum or Heros been able to fool me.

*Newb Question*
Is it good practice to wait for Hero to claim if I'm pretty much 100% going to lynch him?

After this post, you asked the question to Yabba. Which gets us at the point I already made:

At this point would you agree that Hero or myself are going to be the lynchees? or do you think from my perspective it would be wise since I don't like the Hero wagon

to wait and see if a different wagon arises

because personally I really dont see the possibility of someone else getting rung up to L-1.

You knew there was another option. To get somebody else lynched. However, you didn't want to fight for a different one and still wanted to lynch a player of whom you didn't see a case against. You asked if you should 'wait and see' if a different wagon would arise. This shows to me that you are lazy scum. Add that you wanted to lynch Hero, regardless of his claim, this only reinforces my thoughts.
If you are scum, Flava is very likely your partner.

[ZazieR]

@Noramp-504: We don't need your vote to hammer you. Vote Hero, and chill out. Town or scum, it's your best move.

No. If Noramp is town and thinks that Hero is the Seer, this isn't the right move.

[ZazieR]

Well I wasn't suspicious of Hero but then with his claim of Seer, I'm somewhere in the middle. I don't know how to act confident when I'm not.

vote: Hero

Voting after having been pointed out by Yabba. Scummy.

[yabbaguy]

That what is the case?

That powerroles attract suspicion more often. Or did I misconstrue it, and you were just saying that "they get suspicions"?

Also, why would the Seer target Hero if Hero is fake-claiming?

That's me not thinking clearly.

Zazie, are you using "scum" as a catch-all or does that refer to mafia only?

[ZazieR]

They don't get more suspicions. They get suspicions as well. That's what I was saying.

Scum is a catch-all phrase to both Wolves and mafia in this game.
When I talk about one, I use the name of that team seperately,

[yabbaguy]

Same as I've been doing it. Thanks for the clarification.

@511: Can you rephrase that? I'm having difficulty sorting out what you're saying.

@514: Again, me being moronic in giving advice. The point of Noramp's vote being unnecessary for his lynch still stands.

@Netlava-502: We're near a deadline, and we've all agreed to stay off of Hero today. Why are you still voting him?

Change:

Netlava >>> tilting scummy for jeopardizing our lynch.

I do think Mafia could possibly claim Seer. If you're about to get yourself lynched, it's a good save from the lynch. Worst case scenario, you get NK'd by the wolves. You die either way up.

[Crazy]

Second the deadline extension request

At this point, we're just waiting for people to show up.

[Drench]

Deadline has been extended by 7 days to the 25th of August, 10:00AM GMT+10. Prods and vote count soon (read: when I get home)

EDIT: Prods going out now. I'm going to try and find a backup mod: my confidence to follow this through is shaking somewhat, and I don't wanna have you guys left in the dark. Once the prods are done, I'll get a VC up.

DOUBLE EDIT: Prods have been sent.

The Seventeenth Vote Count: "Jungle Lampshading"

Noramp

- 6 - Crazy, orangepenguin, ZazieR, Hero764, yabbaguy, ChaosOmega

yabbaguy
Flava Flave

Mastin

ZazieR
orangepenguin

Crazy
falkomagno

Netlava
ChaosOmega
Cephrir

Hero764

- 4 - Mastin, Cephrir, Flava Flave, Noramp

Not Voting:

- 2 - falkomagno, Netlava

If you see any discrepancies, please let me know.

Hero is prodded.

Deadline is 10:00am on the 25th of August, GMT+10.

[ChaosOmega]

unvote, vote: Noramp

L-1.

[ZazieR]

If this is the case, and the wolves don't kill Hero, the town and the wolves are gonna keep passing the buck. If this happens and Hero is scum, we lose.

If he's scum, we still have the real Seer?
Why should he counterclaim now when he can investigate now and counterclaim when needed to avoid a scum win by fake-claiming Hero if Hero's fake-claiming?

Rephrased:
Hero-scum fake-claims Seer. With a seer counterclaim, one will be lynched and the other will either be NK'ed or lynched the next day. Resulting a trade and destroying our only powerrole.
However, if the seer waits, he can investigate for a few nights. If he gets killed, we know that Hero is fake-claiming. Otherwise, he can counterclaim just before Lylo with results. Giving us knowledge who could be a Wolf and we know that one of them is scum, giving us the chance to lynch both if we mislynch first.

The right play is to let Hero live as he'll be eventually caught if he's fake-claiming scum. And if he's telling the truth, we don't waste our lynch.

[Netlava]

Unvote

[orangepenguin]

Yeah, prodded. I still think Noramp is scum and I'm happy with his lynch. Someone should hammer him.