Mini 817: Chosen (Game Over!)

[Zorblag]

Dry-fit, I'm giving the end game strategy that I'd use if I'm not there to help make a strategy. The rest of you probably do have some vested interest in keeping options open but my point here is that if don_johnson flips vanilla and I get killed during the night I'm going to be confident enough that MiteyMouse is not the chosen that she'd easily be my lynch in a situation where I just have to not lynch the chosen to win.

Herodotus, I think there might be a missing not in your analysis of what I'm working with but I largely see what you're saying.

MiteyMouse, it's time for you to chime in with what you think we should be doing now. I think that BloodCovenent was looking at you (after looking at a string of other players) for reasons that I don't find that surprising. Further, it would have been exceptionally easy for Dry-fit (his replacement) to get you lynched yesterday while garnering minimal attention for it and yet he did nothing along those lines. If you are worried about Dry-fit being scum and you being the chosen then now is the time to make a case for it. If you're not that worried about it then what do think we should be doing now?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Herodotus]

I was listing the three things that would make your plan not necessarily lead to a town win if we followed it. #1 and #3 are assumptions about roles, and #2 is a statement about what the scum will do (which also depends on roles.)

[Zorblag]

Yes, and I assume that you're saying that I'm willing to assume that #1 and #3 are not true rather than that they are.

I'm actually not quite assuming that #1 isn't true. I just think that it's fairly unlikely that don_johnson is the chosen. If he's town then I think it's even less likely that MiteyMouse is; hence the order of actions I'm working with.

My getting killed during the night is the thing I'm least certain of but if that doesn't happen, as I think I said earlier, I'll still be around to adapt to the new situation and information.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MiteyMouse]

Hi guys...I am here. I'm just catching up on my games and one I got really far behind on. I will put up my thoughts today though...please be patient with me.

[MiteyMouse]

Hi everyone.

Zorblag...I've been thinking a lot about your endgame strategy and would be willing to hammer myself tomorrow depending on who dies today and tonight. However, if I am the chosen, I'd think that Dry fit has just as much likely hood of being the Scum. I understand your point about me being an easy target on last Day but, BC was going after me really hard on Day 1 (somewhat understandably). The Scum would still have to worry about the next Day so, the chosen being an easy lynch pales a bit to tipping their hand to the Town.

There is only one of them so they would have been worried about how to survive the next Day, even if they took out the chosen.

I want to go back and look at all the votes as, I think that it might be likely that the remaining Scum could have had their vote on the chosen. The problem is that, with those of us left, each of us is just as likely to be the Chosen. Maybe the voting pattern might help to see where the bandwagons have been going. Give me a few to check this all out...

[Zorblag]

MiteyMouse, the point that I'm trying to get at here is that yesterday Dry-fit could have gotten you lynched fairly easily without tipping his hand. He held off on doing anything towards you at all despite the fact that both Papa Zito and I cast votes for you right near the start of the day. Saying that BloodCovenent was going after you really hard on day one strikes me as an exaggeration; perhaps it would be good for Herodotus and don_johnson to take a look at what BloodCovenent did day one and let us know what they think though.

Why should each of us have equal chances of being the chosen at this point? We've got information about how people have been acting with respect to eachother. If you think that the scum are likely to have voted for the chosen at some point you must believe that the chances of being the chosen will vary from player to player.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MiteyMouse]

Thank you Papa Zito if you are still following the game! I changed the colours within the quote just to only show comfirmeds but, the work was his.

2 Archon:

TDC

,

Nuwen

0

AshMC1984

:

1 BloodCovenent: afatchic
0 afatchic:
0 MiteyMouse:
1 Zorblag: BloodCovenent
0

Nuwen

: [/color]
2

Papa Zito

:

MiteyMouse,

AshMC1984

0

TDC:

2 Archon:

TDC

,

Nuwen

0

AshMC1984

:

1 BloodCovenent: afatchic
0 afatchic:
0 MiteyMouse:
1 Zorblag: BloodCovenent
1

Nuwen

:

Papa Zito

2

Papa Zito

: MiteyMouse,

AshMC1984

0

TDC

:

3 Herodotus:

TDC

,

Raivann

,

AshMC1984

1

AshMC1984

:

Papa Zito

1 BloodCovenent: afatchic
0 afatchic:
1 MiteyMouse: BloodCovenent
0 Zorblag:
2

Raivann

: Zorblag, Herodotus
1

Papa Zito

:

MiteyMouse
0

TDC

:

1 Herodotus:

Raivann

0

Special Ed

:

1 BloodCovenent: afatchic
0 afatchic:
1 MiteyMouse: BloodCovenent
0 Zorblag:
3

Raivann

: Zorblag Herodotus

Papa Zito

0

Papa Zito

: MiteyMouse
0

TDC

:

5

Raivann

: Zorblag, Herodotus,

Papa Zito

,

TDC

,

Special Ed

1 Herodotus:

Raivann

0

Special Ed

1 BloodCovenent: afatchic
0 afatchic:
1 MiteyMouse: BloodCovenent
0 Zorblag:
1

Papa Zito

:

MiteyMouse
0

TDC

Herodotus:

Special Ed

(3): Dry-fit,

Papa Zito

,

MiteyMouse
MiteyMouse(1): Zorblag

Dry-fit:
afatchic:
Zorblag:

Papa Zito:

Special Ed

(3): Dry-fit,

Papa Zito

,

MiteyMouse
MiteyMouse(2): Zorblag,

Special Ed

Special Ed

(4):

Papa Zito

,

MiteyMouse, don_johnson, Herodotus
MiteyMouse(2): Zorblag,

Special Ed

don_johnson(1): Dry-fit

dry-fit(1): don_johnson

[MiteyMouse]

Now something really interesting worth noting in Papa's original vote analysis is that Raivann and Hero both had votes on each other. Now, it was something that I overlooked as, I thought that Hero was most definately the Chosen. Now that I'm questionning that that voting looks really interesting. Could this be really early cross bussing as a way to buy some Town cred? Or better yet, a way to make Hero look like the Chosen when Rav flipped Scum?

Now another thing of interest about Hero is that he did not place a vote on Day 2...until he dropped the hammer on Ed. He was also the only living person to be in on both lynches this game.

I could be wrong here but, I think that Hero might not be our Hero after all but, our Scum.

[Zorblag]

I'll let Herodotus react to that if he wants before I say anything past this.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Herodotus]

I want to go back and look at all the votes

I've never posted images before, so forgive me if this doesn't work, but I've charted the votes already, so here goes:



Red for Raivann-scum, green for townies. The other color were arbitrary. Read down the columns for the votes each player has placed, or across the rows for votecounts at any time.
As I said before, MM only voting for VT's stands out in this chart. It's also obvious that Dry-fit/Blood Covenant has voted for the largest variety of players and is the only one who has voted for either Zorblag or Don (until today.)

I will reexamine BloodC when I get a chance. I reread him in isolation earlier this week, but it was more to get a feel for whether he was scum than to consider his approach to MM.

[MiteyMouse]

Wow Hero! That is really impressive! Nice work!

[Herodotus]

Thanks. It took a while...

Now something really interesting worth noting in Papa's original vote analysis is that Raivann and Hero both had votes on each other. Now, it was something that I overlooked as, I thought that Hero was most definately the Chosen. Now that I'm questionning that that voting looks really interesting. Could this be really early cross bussing as a way to buy some Town cred? Or better yet, a way to make Hero look like the Chosen when Rav flipped Scum?

Now another thing of interest about Hero is that he did not place a vote on Day 2...until he dropped the hammer on Ed. He was also the only living person to be in on both lynches this game.

I could be wrong here but, I think that Hero might not be our Hero after all but, our Scum.

I'm not sure how to respond to this. It's a reasonable question to ask yourself; however, some circumstances work against it. I was the one of the first to accuse Raivann of being scum, and one of the first to vote for him. I also stated clearly that I wanted him to be lynched (as opposed to PZ's "pressure.") Also, the only thing that I as scum would have gained from that is the appearance of being town (and possibly the chosen.) In hindsight, nothing about it would have helped me to lynch the chosen.
Finally, does early and persistent bussing seem more likely to you than scum avoiding lynching one's buddy?

I think I've already explained why I lurked for the beginning of day 2. I wanted to see who would attack Ed, just in case he might be the chosen. After that, I indicated that I intended to hammer Ed, but did not vote because I was waiting for afatchick.

[Zorblag]

*chuckles* That chart looks familiar Herodotus. Nicely done. Any other conclusions you're drawing from it? I think I'm seeing a few interesting things.

MiteyMouse, a couple things:

1. You're wrong about Herodotus not having voted for anyone before he hammered Special Ed on day 2. It doesn't show up in the vote counts but he did vote for Dry-fit after Dry-fit had voted don_johnson (and curiously don_johnson responded by voting Herodotus for the complete circle.) It doesn't show up in the official vote counts though so I suppose that's something I can chalk up to simply not being careful.

2. Herodotus voting for Raivann on day one did nothing to make him look more like the chosen. That should have come just from how Nuwen and Raivann voted. Herodotus voting for Raivann early does contribute to his looking more like he's town. I suppose that it could be an early, hard bus if he was sure that Raivann was going to get lynched but that's certainly further than scum had to go the first day when there were so many who weren't buying the Raivann issue.

3. Why were you assuming that Herodotus had to be the chosen at any point? I agree that he was likely to be the chosen (and I think still is) but assuming that it's the case is just a bad idea.

4. Herodotus might have been the only one still living who was on both lynches (though I'm not sure that makes him look bad for any reason) but it was only just. I know that I was completely willing to vote for Special Ed; my vote just wasn't needed. Had it been that would have put me in that spot rather than Herodotus.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MiteyMouse]

I noticed your first point after Hero posted his chart Zorblag. I just looked at the official votes counts and probably should have gone over all the votes and unvotes.

I was assuming that Heor was the chosen based partly on the list of who would exclude who. He was the most likey to be the Chosen from that and I did really over look actually looking at him because of that.

[Herodotus]

*chuckles* That chart looks familiar Herodotus. Nicely done. Any other conclusions you're drawing from it? I think I'm seeing a few interesting things.

I don't think I would bother doing it for larger games.

One issue is that even something with that much information isn't showing suspicions that were not accompanied by a vote. I started to list whom various people had stated suspicions of on my chart below the part in the image, but that was a poor substitute for reads in isolation.

I'm a little curious about your asking me about other conclusions while holding on to "some interesting things." I have noticed one other thing since you asked, but now I want to hear what you had in mind first.

[Zorblag]

I'm a little curious about your asking me about other conclusions while holding on to "some interesting things." I have noticed one other thing since you asked, but now I want to hear what you had in mind first.

OK. Is that because you think that I'm fishing for reasons that you come up with to use as my own? That strikes me as odd but I can play that game.

Here's the abbreviation for a couple things for me; I'll share what I've got when you've shared your thoughts:

1. F I N O R O O H R S N O E H H.

2. D D F T B T I D A S T W O F I S B I P #.

The second is actually more of an extension of another observation than anything new and the first uses some extra information from the game but the chart makes them easier to see.

Neither one makes me think that we should play today any differently than I already did.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Dry-fit]

1. You're wrong about Herodotus not having voted for anyone before he hammered Special Ed on day 2. It doesn't show up in the vote counts but he did vote for Dry-fit after Dry-fit had voted don_johnson (and curiously don_johnson responded by voting Herodotus for the complete circle.) It doesn't show up in the official vote counts though so I suppose that's something I can chalk up to simply not being careful.

Yes but this was just a "trap" vote, so I'm not sure how much stock you can put into it.

I don't like Mitey's 532 attack on Herodotus. It looks like more desperate attempts to throw attention elsewhere. First she suggests Raivann voting for Hero was an early bus attempt, an obvious possibility but she provides no evidence for it. Then an accusation about him not placing a vote until hammering, which is not only false, but why would it matter anyway?

[Herodotus]

@Zorblag:
It's not that I was overly worried about what you were doing, just that it didn't seem right.
What I was noticing was afatchic's parked vote on day 1, and his replacement's placing the same vote on day 3. I don't know what conclusion to draw from that, but when I wrote post 539 I was finding it a little scummy.

[Zorblag]

OK, here were my thoughts (and then some explanation):

1. (This was the second letter of each word):

If MiteyMouse and don_johnson are both town then Dry_fit is unlikely to be the chosen.

It's similar to your observation; that first afatchic and now don_johnson have been the ones to park their votes on BloodCovenent and now Dry-fit. As Dry-fit says in his latest post your vote on Dry-fit (the only other one he's gotten) was part of a quick trap interaction; I don't think that you've spent much time at all trying to say that BloodCovenent or Dry-fit were likely scum. MiteyMouse on the other hand seems to have latched onto the idea that BloodCovenent might be scum trying to get her as the chosen much more strongly than I expected. In any case, MiteyMouse and don_johnson are the ones who I see has having made any serious moves that might end up with Dry-fit being lynched.

And now I'll go slightly against that trend with my #2 comment:

2. (This was the first letter in each word):

Dry_fit does fit the behavior that I described as something to watch out for in scum back in post 329.

As I said in Post 329:

If someone is going out of their way to attack everyone then that'll be a better candidate than normal for scum in this game. That on it's own should make it harder for scum to avoid the sort of situation that Albert B. Rampage was in.

Going out of his way is probably an exaggeration but it's the only thing we've got that comes close to that behavior based on votes.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MiteyMouse]

1. You're wrong about Herodotus not having voted for anyone before he hammered Special Ed on day 2. It doesn't show up in the vote counts but he did vote for Dry-fit after Dry-fit had voted don_johnson (and curiously don_johnson responded by voting Herodotus for the complete circle.) It doesn't show up in the official vote counts though so I suppose that's something I can chalk up to simply not being careful.

Yes but this was just a "trap" vote, so I'm not sure how much stock you can put into it.

I don't like Mitey's 532 attack on Herodotus. It looks like more desperate attempts to throw attention elsewhere. First she suggests Raivann voting for Hero was an early bus attempt, an obvious possibility but she provides no evidence for it. Then an accusation about him not placing a vote until hammering, which is not only false, but why would it matter anyway?

Ok...so first you are saying that the vote doesn't really count to defend yourself and then you say that it does count in order to attack me? I know that I'm not really one to talk here Dry fit but, you are really tnneled on me here.

[don_johnson]

dry-fit is still scum in my book. he wasn't on the raivann wagon either. i don't see a case for miteymouse scum at this point and am wondering why dry is "tunneled".

[Zorblag]

Dry-fit's reaction to what I'd said about Herodotus's point and then use of it immediately after is pretty bizarre but do MiteyMouse and don_johnson really think that tunneled on MiteyMouse is a fair description of his play today?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[hohum]

Deadline is 1 week from this post! Get busy lynching or get busy dying!

[Herodotus]

MiteyMouse, why are you not voting for Dry-fit?
Zorblag, same question.

[Zorblag]

Because he's only number three on my list of suspects at this time behind don_johnson and MiteyMouse and because I still like the plan that I've gone over at this time.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh