Mafia 96 - Murder in Emerald City (Game Over!)

[SpyreX]

I'm still not seeing how that makes the fairly obvious "Ohh hey, all the OTHER chuckleheads I think are scum jumped all over this and its late enough a bus isn't gonna make a whole lot of sense UHOH"

[SpyreX]

I'm still not seeing how that makes the fairly obvious "Ohh hey, all the OTHER chuckleheads I think are scum jumped all over this and its late enough a bus isn't gonna make a whole lot of sense UHOH"

[Kmd4390]

Really need to catch up...

[Wickedestjr]

Mod: I will be on vacation for the next week. I will have little to no computer access.

Please try not to lynch somebody until I get back please.

[Wickedestjr]

Okay, I just skimmed the first 30 pages of the game looking at the players and their relations to each other, ZazieR, and Mastin to draw some conclusions. I have made a lot of interesting discoveries;

1. All doubts about Kublai Khan being scum have officially been washed away. He is definitely town imo. Mastin and ZazieR attacked him quite a bit.

2. Faraday isn't Cerulean. It just wouldn't make sense to me. His first post in the game made it seem to me like the two of them aren't scum buddies.

3. Lowell isn't Cerulean. This one was kind of obvious. Also self explanatory.

4. CKD isn't Cerulean. This isn't a conclusion that I had gotten from the first thirty pages, but I recall CKD really wanting Mastin lynched.

5. Xyl is not scum. I know, it's probably surprising to hear this from me. Sorry Xyl for wanting to lynch you so much. After looking at the first thirty pages, it wouldn't make sense for Fallen Angel to be scum buddies with Mastin or ZazieR. So

Unvote: Xyl

.

6. SerialClergyman isn't scum. Same reason for doubting that Xyl isn't scum.

7. Achilles and Faraday aren't scum buddies if they are vermillions. I don't remember exactly how I came to this conclusion, I just remember Faraday accusing Achilles of something I think.

8. Dvdkid13 and Faraday aren't scum buddies if they are vermillions. Same reason as point 7.

So, after all these observations, I have come to the conclusion that either SpyreX is Cerulean, or Kmd is Cerulean. They are only two that I haven't really cleared yet.

For now, I think Kmd is more likely Cerulean. Mastin never seemed to even talk about Dvd that much. This vote may change but

Vote: Kmd

[Faraday]

Hmm that's a fair list of assumptions.

5 and 6 in particular don't seem to be very strong.

What about Xyl and Sc's interactions with Zazie means they can't be vermillion, or even SC's Mastin interactions. I agree Xyl doesn't seem very likely cerulean, but yeh.

While 7 and 8 are in fact both true, the reasoning of me accusing him of something seems kinda weak. It is possible to state you're suspicious of your buddies. Unless you're saying the way it was done makes it unlikely but even still.

[Wickedestjr]

I'm pretty sure about Xyl, because Mastin and ZazieR's interactions with Fallen Angel didn't seem like a bus. SerialClergyman on the other hand, I am pretty sure he isn't Cerulean. I guess there is a chance that he could be Vermillion, but that doesn't make sense to me either. I better post some more in my other games or people will get jealous.

But, in case I don't get a chance to post anymore in this game. I think that Kmd is Cerulean, and SpyreX is Vermillion along with CKD. However Faraday, Lowell, and even SerialClergyman could be somewhere in there instead.

[curiouskarmadog]

Ok updating 3 games, this one is first because I think it has the most content.

Going back to post, 2014 (xyl), and working my way forward, I have skimmed, but not read really in depth doing so now. At this point, I am little confused by what Xyl calls a “loaded” question, but lets see.
==

please try to avoid terms like "more likely"..I want a concrete answer today.

You're not going to get it. I approach the game in terms of probabilities and likelihoods. I never rule scenarios out, I just change my estimates. So, if you ask what I was thinking, you're going to get a lot of "more likely" and "probably", because

that's what I was thinking

.

Fair enough, but I assume you understand how easily one can slither out of stances with that sort of playing style. Your %s are confusing because they are out of 300%? I am not sure what that means, so I can imagine others are confused as well. Even your “maybe town”/ “maybe not town” is confusing and utterly meaningless because you can quickly change or adapt as needed. I don’t know if this is intentional or not.

I dont want to misquote you or assume you are saying something you are not

Funny, I'm not seeing that attitude here. You just assume I'm saying something I'm not and immediately start attacking over it. Why the difference?

What difference are you talking about? Give me an example of when I am saying you are saying something you are not.

Compare to this game:

you are back tracking and contradicting to the extreme yourself to avoid this lynch, why?

This is the logical fallacy of the loaded question: a question which can't be answered without implicitly accepting a false premise.

I see what you are saying with loaded questions. SO I should have worded it “I think you are back tracking and contradicting to the extreme. Why are you avoiding this lynch?” So it is a semantic thing. What you call a loaded question is a combination of when I think someone is scum and asking them to explain themselves. I tend to make this type of post when I get frustrated with someone I deem acting scummy.

Examples: Mini 655, Clockwork (town) in reference to me (my post 33).

“After reading the thread a bit, CKD has come off as overly aggressive for an attack that had little merit. He's been asking questions that are, in my opinion, loaded and the general amount of effort he's putting into concentrating on one person for something that is a relatively minor contradiction is a little surprising.…”

Mini 655 post 67, I felt Raider had been back tracking and was being scummy.

“Why are you back tracking now?”

My Post 58, Mini 688, I felt EA was scummy and stretching to push a case..I stated such.

“EA, why are you stretching so much?”

My Post 42 in California trilogy.

“seems to me that you are warping what really happened yesterday...why?”

I am town in all of these games. Now what?

or should I say..

What if I pointed to a game where I did

exactly

this as town? Would that change your opinion on the scumminess?

==

xyl looks like the best target so far, but I'm still reading. I've not forgotten how scummy his predecessor was.

Interesting comment...any follow up? Scummy attacks aside, add this post to another reason I think Xyl is not scum. Unless he thinks he is going to hang and this is last minute bussing....but I think Lowell should be the lynch today. At least Xyl has the appearance of trying to scum hunt....though at this point he is tunnel visioning.

His next post..

Why would I breadcrumb mason and then deny it? Still reading, but this is the part of the case against me that is the dumbest. Wouldn't I, um, WANT people to think I'm a mason?

What about Xyl..forgot about him? Hey Lowell, when did you read mole’s post about him being a neighbor?

==

curiouskarmadog, you too. If you believe your case, vote me. Come on.

Pot...black..kettle.
==

I'd appreciate it if no one hammers at least until SerialClergyman and curiouskarmadog can answer why they're attacking me but voting Lowell.

I think Lowell is scum...but find your unvote, backtracks, and current meta attacks scummy. Do i think you are scum?...really going back and forth on it....

==

If it's what I think, let me just summarize the case again, and you can tell me if it's weak.

[*]CKD has not shown any cases of him using similar attacks in any previous game where he was town.
Now, what stronger evidence do you want than that? A confession?

Looking through every game CKD has played as town would be a poor use of my time, and if CKD doesn't pick I have no reason to pick any one game over another. So I'd just pick one. ("Random" here doesn't mean selected by chance, it means selected arbitrarily.)

I asked CKD to provide a town example and he hasn't. I'm assuming that's because he can't.

dude, I said I wasnt going to be around until today...Why are you attacking me for not answering a request when I am not here and fully reading? Do you think attacking someone for not addressing something when they said they were not going to be here is pro-town? Why when i reposted my "going to post an update on friday" post did you ignore it? Surely you didnt overlook it twice.
==

CKD, more easy questions for you to answer:

In your view, did you ask loaded questions in Frogs Mafia?

In your view, did you attack me for not answering questions in Frogs Mafia?

I attack the same as scum or town. yes I did attack you for not answering questions in Frogs...so? When people dont answer questions i think it is scummy. Again, looking through my cases as you suggest you are doing, you should have seen him time and time again do this as town.

And this is why your meta attacks are scummy...you have clearly read Mafia 86 (because you have stated it numerous times)...you should then know that I attacked several people for not answering or avoiding my questions.

WHAT IS THE POINT OF THIS QUESTION?

==

post and questions answered tomorrow.

since I have to go through my old cases....questions Xyl, have you ever attacked someone as scum using a meta you manipulated to serve your purpose? Will be checking....

No. That would be stupid, anyone could just check the meta themselves, like I keep encouraging people to do in this case.

a point for Xyl (back and forth)...I skimmed about 4 mafia games of Xyl..I dont see him attacking someone as scum using a meta.

I did find this gem though.

Xyl post 316 in Mind Screw mafia.

“On a completely unrelated note, someone who knows my meta could have figured out that I was scum because I wasn't pushing for lurker lynches! I push them very strongly as town, but this game the two of the biggest lurkers were my scumbuddies. Fortunately (for me as scum) most people view pushing lurker lynches as scummy, so I actually looked more protown by not pushing them.”

Have you pushed any lurker lynches this game Xyl?

also

unvote.

for now. going to be gone this weekend.

lurkers need to post content, KK is gone until tomorrow..where is Hay..Lowell owes us his thoughts on Xyl..

[Xylthixlm]

Sum to 300% = I was guessing 3 scum left, each with a 100% chance of being somebody.

On iPhone, will respond with quotes later.

Saying something I'm not? Just look at your "you invited Lowell even though you said he's scum". I said that I thought he was

less scummy

and that's why I unvoted him. Is your reading comprehension really that poor? I don't think so.

"Attack the same as scum as town"... Yeah right. I'm sure you try to the best of your ability. So does everyone. No one succeeds. Stop trying to claim you have no meta.

Maybe I'm not scum... Wait, so now I might not be misrepresenting your meta? Didn't you say I was?

Please answer the question about asking loaded questions in frogs mafia. Yes or no. I'll even take "yes but" or "no but".

Nope, I haven't pushed lurker lynches - the only person lurking who I don't have reason to think is town is Faraday. You'll notice he's on my list of scum.

What did you learn about my town meta on answering questions from frogs mafia?

[curiouskarmadog]

why do I have a feeling, Xyl is going to ignore my similiar attacks as town (games AND EVEN POST NUMBER PROVIDED)....why do I have the feeling that he is going to ignore the fact that I have been attacked as town for asking loaded questions.

Did I ask you loaded questions in Frog Mafia? Yes. Were they intentially loaded? No. Do I usually ask question like that when I get fustrated and I think someone is scum? Yes. Do I do it regards of alignment? yes.
--

I really dont understand most of that iphone post.

--
Xyl, you push that I am scum because I attacked you for backtracking. Stating that I have done it as scum in another game.

I provide an example of doing it in another game that I was town.

then, you push that I am scum because I asked what you what you call "loaded" questions.

I provide three exmaples of doing it in other games that I was town in....even post where I was attacked for asking loaded questions.

now what?

you said if I could provide a game that I did it in you might change your mind...I provided 3...

now what?

According to you...you are scum.

[Xylthixlm]

Mini 655 post 67, I felt Raider had been back tracking and was being scummy.

“Why are you back tracking now?”

My Post 58, Mini 688, I felt EA was scummy and stretching to push a case..I stated such.

“EA, why are you stretching so much?”

My Post 42 in California trilogy.

“seems to me that you are warping what really happened yesterday...why?”

Mmmh. Well, they do seem to be loaded. On the other hand it seems like there's a difference between "You are backtracking" and "You are stretching" on one hand, and "You are backtracking and contradicting yourself to the extreme to avoid this lynch" on the other. You're much more

charitable

in those quotes. Do you disagree?

[curiouskarmadog]

yes I disagree.

[iamausername]

-=Vote Count #60=-

Lowell (3) - SerialClergyman, Faraday, Hayker
SerialClergyman (3) - Kmd4390, Xylthixlm, SpyreX
SpyreX (1) - Lowell
Kmd4390 (1) - Wickedestjr

Not Voting (2) - Kublai Khan, curiouskarmadog

6 to lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

you and semantics again....let everyone read it..

If Lowell is the last Cerulean

, and is a neighbor, that would give the Ceruleans three power roles (doctor, roleblocker, neighbor). That's not impossible, but

it's a little unlikely

.

That lowers my estimate of the likelihood that Lowell is scum enough to make me want to look elsewhere today.

/vote:Lowell

Sorry Lowell, ut I'm convinced that you are scum.

Even if you're convinced he's scum, if he is

he's almost certainly Cerulean

.

If that's the case then lynching him today is

bad

.

Not as bad as lynching a townie, but still bad.

.

for the record, is lowell "unlikely to be cerulean" or "almost certianly Cerulean" In both posts, you feel that Lowell is not a good lynch...so please dont act like you didnt say it

funny how you dont post your quote with you semantics defense. I will do it again for you,

first quote bolded.

first post you say that it is "unlikely" that Lowell is Cer, and "that lowers my estimate that Lowell is scum". If he is not Cer, he fucking must be Ver....and that lowers your estimate that he is scum., thus you dont want to lynch him. I am not misreresenting anything....are you trying to say now, that you werent trying to indicate that Lowell is ver in this post?

Let's read that first quote again.

If Lowell is the last Cerulean, and is a neighbor, that would give the Ceruleans three power roles (doctor, roleblocker, neighbor). That's not impossible, but it's a little unlikely. That lowers my estimate of the likelihood that Lowell is scum enough to make me want to look elsewhere today.

What do I say about Lowell's scumminess in this post? I say that

I don't want to lynch him because I don't think he's scum

. Nowhere do I say that he's likely to be Vermillion, and in fact that idea contradicts what I've said in previous posts. You are

making up a position for me that contradicts what I've actually said

and then accusing me of contradicting myself! That is incredibly scummy and you know it.

[Xylthixlm]

Oh yes, forgot this: When I point out that curiouskarmadog is accusing me of saying something I never said, he says that I'm arguing "semantics".

[Kublai Khan]

Hey guys, I'm back from a very restful and exhausting camping trip. I'll read over what was said and post something meaningful possibly tonight, but more probably tomorrow morning.

[Kublai Khan]

Okay, I'm caught up and here are my thoughts.

Kill Speculation: My current theory is that the fourth neighbor is Vermillion. If the Ceruleans had the fourth neighbor, then they would have left the more ambiguous 3rd neighbor claim alive in the game for possible lynch and killed off one of the most solid pro-town claims. I have come ideas on why roflcopter died, but it's pretty much WIFOM at this point.

Based on the past 8-9 pages, I think that Xylthixlm is kinda scummy. Two of his last couple of cases (SerialClergyman & curiouskarmadog) have been really sloppy. SerialClergyman has defended himself pretty thoroughly and I'd be very reluctant to lynch him at this point. The case on curiouskarmadog seems to be built mostly on meta and making loaded questions. I'm just going to make the point now that I don't care about meta and I'm not going to lynch people based on their actions in other games. We're not playing Frogs Mafia, so I don't care about Frogs Mafia. If Xylthixlm had only stated that curiouskarmadog asks loaded questions (with appropriate examples), then I'd be receptive to that as a case. But since he's trying to back it up with meta, it feels like he's playing with uncooked pasta.

That said, curiouskarmadog has also been pushing a very poor case back at Xylthixlm. I've understood everything that Xylthixlm has argued, so curiouskarmadog's confusion isn't ringing true. The return meta arguments and the accusations of semantics are horrible.

Plus I echo the sentiment that I really don't see when and how SpyreX became confirmed town. Him, Faraday, Kmd4390, & Lowell have posted far too little while I was gone. Kmd4390 has been V/LA for part of that time and so has Lowell, but SpyreX and Faraday have no excuse. I wouldn't be surprised if one or both are lurking scum.

However of the main two (Xylthixlm & curiouskarmadog), I think curiouskarmadog is more likely to be Vermillion, so..

Vote: curiouskarmadog

[Kmd4390]

I've read up and I'd be more likely to vote CKD than Xyl. Still prefer Serial and Lowell in that order though.

[iamausername]

-=Hayker and Lowell have been prodded.=-

[Lowell]

prod received. I will have access at work tomorrow to catch up.

[Faraday]

However of the main two (Xylthixlm & curiouskarmadog), I think curiouskarmadog is more likely to be Vermillion, so..

Vote: curiouskarmadog

Do you also think CKD is more likely to be any sort of scum, not specifically vermillion? I don't think either are actually particularly likely to be Cerulean, I need to re-read CKD's opinion of Mastin, but I'm pretty sure he was very pro-mastin lynch. Do need to check though.

Quick check: He didn't back off mastin veery quickly after the claim, untill Mufasa made himself look rather scummy. He was V/La for a lot of the day mastin was lynched but did manage to put a vote on Mastin, also pretty sure he wasn't on the mini Ckool wagon, so I don't think he's very likely Cerulean.

He's probably Vermillion if he's mafia, though I think he's looked quite town-y so far.

I'm still in favour of a Lowell lynch as he's by far my top choice.

What do you think of Lowell?

[Lowell]

Mafia 96, page 76-85:

1876- namttam self-votes, throws pity party
1877- SC asks namttam, if town, to not give up [-, looks like he's trying to win an ally]
1886- nam leads w/ 6 votes (7 needed)
1888- lowell hammers
1890- nam, rofl, mole all dead, all town
1894- wicked votes xyl
1898- xyl votes lowell due to "breadcrumb"
1899- ckd votes lowell, agrees w/ xyl [-, opportunistic]
1900- SC votes lowell, says his vote can change [-, cruising for targets]
1901- kmd votes SC
1902- spy votes lowell, "fine" with vote (lynch-2)
1900s- hayker, faraday both promise lowell votes
1913- lowell refuses to claim
1915- spy tries to be clever
1921- wicked votes spy based on scum killing patterns, thinks scum must be a replacement [+, interesting point]
1935- xyl repeats that kmd and spy are town [-, strange scumhunting method]
1939- faraday votes lowell (L-1)
1940- ckd calls out people's lack of guts for not voting lowell
1948- lowell claims vanilla, again denies mufasa link
1951- xyl unvotes [?], votes SC [-, thanks, but, why notice this just now?]
1967- wicked votes SC
1971- ckd still suspects lowell, doesn't understand xyl [+]
1981- xyl gets way meta in explaining lynch strategies [-, not really scumhunting]
1983- hayker votes lowell
200s- xyl takes on spy/ckd in explaining behavior [+]
2021- lowell leads w/ 5 votes (L-1)
2022- wicked votes xyl for recent behavior
2024- ckd quasi-conceded argument to xyl, "bets" lowell will vote him [--, all kinds of horrible, trying to be peacemaker and victim at the same time]
2027- xyl continues his own defense [+]
2049- spy makes strangely chummy post to xyl [-]
2051- xyl continues his defense and attack on ckd
2056- faraday continues to push "breadcrumb" case on lowell [-, lazy]
2060- spy unvotes, votes ckd
2061- SC "gives up" talking w/ xyl [-, backing away from conflict not town]
2104- wicked votes kmd
2116- KK votes ckd

Some thoughts:

1)

xyl

's behavior around my claim is strange. I angrily claimed townie and that was enough for him to unvote? Really? Were I another player in the game I'd have hammered the shit out of me. That said, he is on my side (for now) and his case on ckd is a decent one. He also gets points for being by far the most dynamic player in the past 10 pages or so, at times single-handedly pushing the discussion. I

still

don't like his predecessor, though, so I'll take a pass on guessing his alignment.

2)

ckd

looks bad. I don't like the way he blindly pushed my wagon. I more don't like the way he has tried to back out of an argument with xyl. Xyl is pushing, and ckd just seems to want him to stop. 2024 in particular is a horrible horrible post.

3)

faraday

looks bad. I like him earlier in the game, but his tunnel-vision is starting to drive me crazy. He's never explained why I would breadcrumb, then so flatly and repeatedly

deny

it. Further, I've never understood why being linked somehow to mufasa would make me scum, and it hasn't been explained, except hastily after the fact of the wagon surrounding me.

4)

SC

looks bad as well. His initial vote on me in 1900 reeks of equivocation (or of trying to align targets with partners) and bandwagony. His trying to back away from dealing with an over-active xyl in post 2104 is damning as well. He's trying to hid in plain sight.

5) The thing that most jumps out at me in the past few pages is the connection between

SC

and

ckd

. For two relatively active players, they never attack each other, and generally come down the same way on most of the hot issues (pro-lynching lowell, posts 1899 & 1900; anti-dealing w/ xyl in 2024 & 2061; pro-passive-aggressively wanting people to switch back to lowell [in 1971 ckd rushes to SC's defense by reasserting the value of the lowell wagon]). If there's a scumpair to be found (which usually I put minimal stock in) it's SC and ckd.

6)

spy

looks bad as well. He looks like he's doing some

serious

buddying with xyl. In 1902 he half-heartedly joins xyl's lowell wagon. After xyl declares spy town in 1935, spy quietly abandons his advocacy of the lowell wagon (it no longer contains xyl), makes a cryptically chummy post in 2049, and finally votes ckd in 2060 (in an equally cryptic manner). He wasn't thrilled to join the lowell wagon in 1902, and wasn't thrilled to jump off the lowell wagon in 2060. Intentional or not, his buddying to xyl is obvious.

My guess at scum:

ckd, SC

one team

spy

the other team

unvote, vote ckd

. For his fear of entanglement with xyl, his constant reshuffling of the same case on me, and for his buddying with scummy serialclergyman.

[Lowell]

BTW, apologies that this took so long.

[Xylthixlm]

Lowell feels like frustrated town here.

Lowell: Take a closer look at Farady for the last Cerulean. He's lurking, which is a pretty good strategy if you're the last member of one scumteam and the other scumteam is caught in the spotlight.

Although honestly I can't say SpyreX isn't lurking.

He also gets points for being by far the most dynamic player in the past 10 pages or so, at times single-handedly pushing the discussion.

And all the time hoping for another townie to jump in and help. Grrrr.

[Hayker]

I honestly think Lowell is the best lynch for the day guys. Many other things have been brought up, but I still feel that Lowell is scum.