/in-Vitational Game 4 (Game Over!)

[Herodotus]

/confirm

[Herodotus]

If we're going to use that (and I don't know how serious you are,) it's not as likely that both of them are scum than that only one of them is scum. As scum buddies, they wouldn't both need to refrain from confirming.

[Herodotus]

vote: Ojanen

who hasn't even posted in this game this week. Totally lurking.

[Herodotus]

Herodotus, what do you think of random voting?

In my first game, I tried to avoid it, but I have since been converted. I think it is useful not because person A random voting person B says much about players A or B, but because it gives other players the opportunity to place additional votes. These additional votes will carry slightly more weight than they would as first votes.

On a related note, I would have wanted to place a wagon vote on someone, but had no interest in the options available.

[Herodotus]

Elvis's case on KMD is reaching. He is definitely competent enough to be aware of whether he is suggesting a particular number of scum, so I'm pretty sure it's not a slip.
Elvis seems to want us to believe that she believes in it, but I'm not sure whether she does. Whether reaching for an early case is a valid scumtell, I don't know, but this is more suspicious than anything else so far.

unvote; vote: Elvis_knits

[Herodotus]

Herodotus, do you have anything else to add to the game at this point?

I don't. Any comments from me right now beyond what I've said would be a distraction more than anything else. I could start calling some people probable-town, but don't see much point in that so far. I could make some other accusations, but I'd rather see more pages first.

[Herodotus]

@Xyl: I feel like the game has barely started. That's probably why I seem to be lurking. I haven't even checked yet to see whether every player has posted since confirmations.

@PT: Because I didn't see any scumtells from any of the players with votes. I didn't see any from Ojanen, either, but I figured a random vote from myself was unquantifiably more likely to hit scum than a random vote from a player of unknown alignment. My reason was entirely made up after the vote (though since he's only posted once, it seems it was a good reason in hindsight.)

Thesp 112 is a very strong post. It so goes against the popular options.

In what ways? The first 2/3rds looks like filler, and I don't see anything radical in the last third.

So by meta, Elvis is more aggressive when town. That doesn't mean she wouldn't fake it as scum.

I just thought his answer of "4 scum plus a traitor" was more definitive than I would expect someone sound if they didn't actually know the number. I would have expected him to lead with his percentages and say it was a guess, not just give me the answer with no reasoning until later.

Furthermore, his story hasn't been the same. First he told me "4 scum plus a traitor" which I think is pretty definitive, then he said it was an assumption, and recently he said

Yeah, it wasn't random. It was gut. Those were the 4 players who stood out as scum.

Which seems to sidestep the numbers issue completely. If he wasn't choosing 4 players because he wanted to fill the 4 scum slots, but just because he saw 4 scummy people, why didn't he say that in the beginning?

To me, it looked obvious that he was throwing out a (reasonable) number half-jokingly. Just like when VP Baltar said he had PMed his scumbuddies. In both cases, the players weren't seriously claiming to be scum; it was mostly for the joke but possibly also as bait to see if scum would attack them for it.

BaB's 100 and 102 look like a natural flow resulting from indecision. Elvis had made a few posts prior to 100, leading to BaB's suspicions. Then the switch from a HoS to a vote, which was not likely planned on his part. Indecision about voting doesn't seem like a scumtell a priori.

[Herodotus]

@Elvis: I don't understand why you would be so confident about your case on KMD. I considered the "slip" to be a null-tell, and expected others would see that as well. You took it as a basis for a case in a situation where I would expect you not to seriously consider it one. That looks a bit like you're just trying to appear aggressive rather than seeking something that is genuinely scummy.

So I'm not assuming that you're lying; the issue is more that I don't understand why you would really believe what you're saying. And that is more suspicious than the other issues that have been raised.

[Herodotus]

@Herodotus--what are your feelings on ekiM, particularly his 'one of these 5 are scum' post?

Saying that "at least one of these five players is scum" isn't very meaningful, though of course the odds suggest he's probably right. (For comparison, I think that with 4 scum among 20, a random selection of just three people has a 51% chance of containing scum.) Other than that, I haven't paid much attention to him until now.
After review in ISO:
His calling others out for lurking in 3 was premature, especially given that he wasn't megaposting himself.
"Strange behavior" is a poor reason for placing a vote. (Temporarily) unexplained votes are occasionally okay, but when you give a reason, you should be able to say why you think it is an indicator of scumminess. So,

ekim

, was BaB's strangeness scum-motivated or a scum-tell?

I don't. Any comments from me right now beyond what I've said would be a distraction more than anything else. I could start calling some people probable-town, but don't see much point in that so far. I could make some other accusations, but I'd rather see more pages first.

BTW, I really hate this post. Scum excuses to not participate irk me.

Your phrasing is putting the cart ahead of the horse. My reason for not commenting on everything is not scum-motivated. I prefer to focus on the things that I think really matter. At this point, there are more things worth paying attention to.

A question: In KMD's several references to a traitor, is it possible that he is trying to communicate some sort of information about the makup of the scumteam to the traitor? (I'm assuming from the role PMs on page 1 that the mafia members know who the traitor is, but the traitor only knows who the GF is.)

Can't open links on this computer... People link me on AIM all the time and I have to tell them it doesn't work.

I find this difficult to accept. Please explain this technical limitation.

Why didn't anyone say this sooner? Like why didn't KMD say this sooner when I proved serious and voted him for this?? WTF.

Seemed obvious. *shrug*

That's pretty much what I said. No offense intended, Elvis, but I thought it was clear that KMD was joking around... which is why I doubted the sincerity of your case on him. You seem to have given an explanation which I can accept, though only by giving you the benefit of doubt, so I'll be keeping an eye on you.

unvote

Elvis's case on KMD is reaching. He is definitely competent enough to be aware of whether he is suggesting a particular number of scum, so I'm pretty sure it's not a slip.

Regardless of Kmd's awareness, he did suggest a number, this almost seems to say he didn't suggest one.

No, he suggested a number (sort of. He made a list of four, then after being questioned about having four names, went for the number.) I just think he was conscious of it, in other words, it's not a slip.

Why doesn't it sound like an assumption? Would scum really say "yeah, I know the number of scum. It's right here in my Role PM." Nah. (Yes, I'm using WIFOM and to defend myself no less. Deal with it.)

Cause it just doesn't. Dunno about scumslip, but it's just not formatted like an assumption.

What does this mean?

Stupid question: didn't people explain why they were voting BaB as they wagoned him? Wasn't it his HoS and then later vote on Elvis? I may not consider that a meritorious case, but why are people talking about it as if no reason was given?

[Herodotus]

Herodotus: Why can't "strange behavior" be used as justification for placing a vote early in a game?

It can. But if the vote isn't random, the question is whether the voter has some reason to think the strange behavior is an indication of a scum role.

@Serialclergyman:
Your sig notes that you've been prodded only once. Are you concerned about getting a second prod?

@iamausername:
Other than announcing that you didn't vote for Xyl in your last post, do you have any opinions on anyone?

[Herodotus]

@KMD: No.

Willing to hop to Yos. I like Claus' post, and I had Yos on my short list.

Could you tell us what question you're answering here? So far you've ":nod:"ed to KMD and said "No" to him, but without his asking you any questions.

[Herodotus]

@KMD: No.

Willing to hop to Yos. I like Claus' post, and I had Yos on my short list.

Could you tell us what question you're answering here? So far you've ":nod:"ed to KMD and said "No" to him, but without his asking you any questions.

I should clarify that when you nodded, it was more or less clear what you meant. Here it is not.

@Elvis: I'd rather not speak for KMD. But more importantly, "telling you" didn't seem like a high priority, as it was a distinct topic. Reality was that you were running with your argument against KMD, and it looked suspicious. Not even because it was reaching, but because your tone, especially your all-caps sentence, looked like your real goal was to convince people that you believed your argument as opposed to convincing people that it was correct. I stated that at the time. If it is now clear, I'm ready to drop the issue.

[Herodotus]

...why are you trying to argue agains the "bridges and xyl probably aren't scum together" argument here? I don't understand what you'e trying to accomplish, bridges.

QFGoodQuestion. And BaB's response doesn't impress. Even if you disagree with the reasoning, if you are town, that would make the conclusion true.
Also, BaB seems either to be scum, or to have lost perspective, with post 245. Very poor reason to suspect Elvis.

[offtopic]

Could you show me a single example of a good, correct argument made in a large game before page 5?

It was a mini, but I remember seeing a scum found on page 2 of a game that had roflcopter (also Don_Johnson, Killer seven, Mafiaplayer, and maybe SpyreX) in it.

page one of mafia 93

This is actually a bad example. OGB said almost exactly the same in Mini 776 as town (he ended up being dayvigged in large part for lurking.) The page 1 case just happened to be lucky in your game. Anyways, I agree good early cases can be found.
[/offtopic]

Elvis has a good argument about expecting a lack of bussing. It's not 100% (with 4 or 5 scum, I'd expect either one or two bussers if we were to lynch scum,) but it's good evidence depending very much on the circumstances.

As far as Shabba is concerned, there are multiple players who are lurking a lot harder. Does anyone even remember that there are players in this game with the usernames "SerialClergyman" and "iamausername"?

vote: iamausername

[Herodotus]

@BridgesAndBaloons: Could you comment on a wider variety of the players?

[Herodotus]

While you are correct about this, your deflection of the BridgesAndBaloons wagon is noted.

Thank you. I will make no apology for it, even if he's scum.
Also put in your notes that I think the call for additional voters to hammer BaB is premature. For one thing, if he's scum, I want to hear him talk about his buddies. Sure, he'll throw in as much WIFOM as he can, but we can try to work through it.

@BaB: That's over a week away. No. If you were necessarily going to be lynched, then a couple days would be enough. You just happen to be at L-3, and waiting that long is only useful if a better lynch candidate may appear. Answer posts 277/278.

[Herodotus]

357 is correct. BaB, I think there's a good chance that you're town, but even if you are, sitting on our hands for 12 days is anti-town. Why in the Milky Way would you even want that?

There is too much support for a BaB lynch for me to believe there aren't/weren't multiple scum on his wagon. Not that this makes him town, but I'm more interested in the wagon.

@VP Baltar:
Interesting. I was about to unvote iamausername after reading 328. Since you don't look scummy to me, and I'll leave it.

[Herodotus]

I don't get BAB's repeated "If I flip scum" statements. If you were town, I don't think this would enter your head.

That too.

[Herodotus]

I think elvis_knits's suspicion of Kmd3490 is genuine. The manner in which BridgesAndBaloons approached elvis_knits suggests to me that he's trying to exploit the suspicion on the number of people.

This is awful. If he just wanted to exploit suspicion, he probably would have voted KMD (unless KMD is his buddy.) No one had stated any suspicions of Elvis over the number of scum issue before BaB's vote, and only one person was voting for her. Your idea is that he left the wagon that was at 6 in order to exploit suspicions that had not yet been stated on someone who was at 1?

Thesp appears that he may bussing, and this is the strongest point for BaB-scum as opposed to BaB-townie-who-is-reacting-poorly. But I think he's a better lynch.

unvote, vote Thesp

[Herodotus]

There is too much support for a BaB lynch for me to believe there aren't/weren't multiple scum on his wagon. Not that this makes him town, but I'm more interested in the wagon.

This is a really confusing statement. What sort of interest do you have in the wagon? Do you think BnB is a good lynch or not? If not, why are you not actively trying to persuade the town elsewhere?

What I meant was:
I'm not sure whether BaB is town or scum.
I'm pretty sure that among the people voting him now or having unvoted him recently, there are more than one scum. I feel it best to scumhunt from among the voters.

I have pointed out a few people, but I was having trouble finding a particular player who was most likely scum. Now I have discovered one. Read the reason Thesp offered for his suspicions of BaB. Read posts 90-103. He is severely misrepresenting by attributing a motive (expoliting others' suspicions) to BaB's play based on information that came out only after the vote.

[Herodotus]

_elvis_knits_

,

_VP_Baltar__

,

The pleasure of your attendance on the wagon of

__Thesp__

is formally requested.

---

@VPB: The wagon on ekim can resume if/when he comes back from his V/LA and doesn't answer our questions. In fact, I'll join it if he doesn't.

@Elvis: Do you believe BaB was exploiting the suspicion resulting from the number of scum discussion? If so, which players' suspicions was he exploiting? If not, how do you feel about Thesp's reason for wanting BaB lynched?

[Herodotus]

As scum, have you ever claimed vanilla?

There was one marathon game where I was planning to, but it ended up being unnecessary. That was in lylo, though.

Read the reason Thesp offered for his suspicions of BaB.

Quote or post # please.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 98#1813798
Claus: "3- I'm interested in your scumread of BaB, would you elaborate?"
Thesp: "3 - Sure. I think elvis_knits's suspicion of Kmd3490 is genuine. The manner in which BridgesAndBaloons approached elvis_knits suggests to me that he's trying to exploit the suspicion on the number of people."

@Ojanen and VP Baltar: I was planning to explain this later, as I'd prefer Thesp was the lynch, because he is more likely scum, and to make things more clear.
But the question is essentially whether Thesp is trying to get his scumbuddy lynched, or trying to get a townie lynched. I think it is slightly more likely the former. For one thing, he is talking about BaB as if he is certain that he will flip as scum. I also think he wants credibility plus the death of at least one townie (me) more than he wants a mislynch.

@Elvis: I am reading 100 and 102 over and over. It does not come across as exploitation to me. But you're right that we can expect clarification.

[Herodotus]

Thesp 112 is a very strong post. It so goes against the popular options.

In what ways? The first 2/3rds looks like filler, and I don't see anything radical in the last third.

I should have clarified. In 112, Thesp says :"For the record, I don't concur with the line of thinking that says kmd3490 has made a slip with regards to the number of scum. I don't find the Xylthixlm wagon that compelling right now either. " is a very potent opinion, something town is more likely to do than scum.

Ok. I obviously agree with what he said there, but it doesn't seem like a major departure from popular ideas.

A question: In KMD's several references to a traitor, is it possible that he is trying to communicate some sort of information about the makup of the scumteam to the traitor? (I'm assuming from the role PMs on page 1 that the mafia members know who the traitor is, but the traitor only knows who the GF is.)

If you thought Elvis was scummier than KMD, then what does this post accomplish?

At the moment, I do not think Elvis is scummier than KMD. But even if I find one player scummier, I'm not going to disregard something suspicious about another player.

Why is Hero avoiding the bab wagon and voting Thesp using babscum as an excuse?

It's the other way around. BaBscum is a consequence of Thespscum. But I am now thinking this connection may be weaker than I thought.

I'm pretty sure that among the people voting him now or having unvoted him recently, there are more than one scum. I feel it best to scumhunt from among the voters.

Why do you think it is a good idea to hunt the wagon when you arent even sure about bab. Why are you not sure of bab being town or scum?

My role PM does not inform me of BaB's alignment, directly or indirectly, one way or the other. Within the thread, the evidence could go either way. He has certainly acted strangely, but I think people are playing up the degree to which his strange behavior is scummy, and he could easily be town.
If he continues to refuse to post his suspicions, though, I will definitely vote him, because a townie shouldn't be this hesitant to tell people who he thinks the scum are.

Bab, instead of hunting lurkers, make a scumlist. My vote is waiting for you, so you have max two days to change or confirm my suspicions.

This. Also, BaB, why have you not done this after many players have asked you to? That is genuinely scummy.

Tajo, I find your vote a little ironic, given that I've been pushing harder than anyone else against the popular options. But it's cool. If BaB is lynched and turns up scum, I will be prepared to explain and defend the positions I've taken today tomorrow, and the suspicion will be worth it to have a dead scum.

Preview edit:
at BaB.

[Herodotus]

Why is Hero avoiding the bab wagon and voting Thesp using babscum as an excuse?

It's the other way around. BaBscum is a consequence of Thespscum. But I am now thinking this connection may be weaker than I thought.

Herodotus, while producing interesting stationary, is utterly confusing me. Why are you using Thesp hypo-bussing as a scumpoint against BnB?

Okay, I've been communicating poorly. It's probably partly a result of my new planned-playstyle idea. I had decided that in this game, I would try to focus almost exclusively on things I wanted to talk about, and ignore everything but my own search for the scum. Also, I was very excited to have apparently caught another player in a lie, and felt I didn't need to explain what I was thinking. A bad idea, I suppose. In this post, I'll try to explain clearly.

The majority of players have voted or said they were seriously considering voting for BaB. I think that some of them must be scum, whether BaB is town or scum. I also feel like the probability that BaB is scum is lower than the probability that we can sucessfully find one of the scum on the wagon. (Or at least I felt that way before reading post 398, which is yet more stalling, and makes BaB look scummier to me.)

After deciding that, I considered and reread in isolation some of the players who were voting for BaB. I looked at Thesp's stated reason for voting BaB, and it looked like a mischaracterization of BaB's play. I understand Thesp's reason to be:
BaB was trying to take advantage of people being suspicious of Elvis after her case on KMD.
Elvis has come up with a different way to parse what Thesp said, and if she is correct, I think Thesp will look a lot less suspicious. I'd like to hear other peoples' interpretations of what Thesp said.
Because of the above, which I saw as a misrepresentation, and because of some smaller issues that I may not have mentioned, I decided Thesp was likely scum.

After deciding Thesp was likely scum, I looked at him again to decide whether his interactions with BaB made me more or less suspicious of BaB. The two options, assuming Thesp-scum, were 'bussing BaB' or 'mislynching BaB.'
The scenario that he, as scum, was going for an easy mislynch would mean that he along with everyone else on the wagon would look scummy.
I decided it looked like bussing, instead. A bus would make the people on the wagon look good (and I'd already decided there were multiple scum on the wagon, so multiple scum would look good,) and would lead to multiple people who were not on the wagon being mislynched.
I can even believe the scenario that the entire scumteam except for one player to be sacrificed votes to lynch the sacrifice on day 1 because the townie credibility is so useful. (But I promise I'm not a DGB alt -- I was even fortunate enough to have a game with her. )

But the idea that the scumteam was mass-bussing BaB rested on more uncertainty than the thought process that lead me to see Thesp as scum. Also, aiding in the BaB lynch would just make the mass-bussing more successful. So instead of simply joining the BaB-wagon, I decided to pursue a case on Thesp.

I do not like the fact that BaB is still not posting his suspicions, as he has repeatedly been asked to do. Scum would have a reason not to do this, or at least to stall. A townie should be willing to at least post some gut reads, and maybe ask for another day or two to elaborate on them.

Sorry for the wall of text, but I think it will be worth it if people can see what I've been thinking to check it for validity and to judge me better.

[Herodotus]

BTW,

@Zu_faul

and

@Herotodus

: Agree/Disagree on each of my three cases? Would you vote any of them?

I assume you mean Yos2, Thesp, and Ekim?

Ekim:
He just returned from V/LA, so I don't find the lurking scummy. The fact that he hopped on both of the biggest wagons with virtually no explanation is not pro-town. On the other hand, I would expect scum to want to provide good-looking reasons for their votes -- but I don't know how common it is for them not to.
He has plenty of questions to answer, and his next post will determine whether I would be willing to vote for him. Unless it is impressive, I would say yes.

Thesp:
I disagree about your point that he hasn't picked up new reasons to support a BaB lynch. He is now arguing that I am scum defending my scumbuddy. While this is factually incorrect, as I am town, if he is town he could reasonably suspect me -- so his argument has changed at least a little.
So far both you and Elvis have stated that my interpretation of Thesp's given reason for voting BaB is incorrect. As I don't see either of you as particularly likely scumbuddies with him, I am inclined to think I misunderstood (though I would have liked to hear from Thesp himself about that.)
I am, however, still a little wary of him because:
(a) He hasn't seemed interested in BaB posting his suspicions. Granted, BaB has been stalling, but no one else would have known he would.
(b) I'm getting an impression from his posts that he is 100% certain that BaB will turn out to be scum. I would expect this type of certainty from roflcopter, but most people accept that they may be wrong.

I haven't paid much attention to trying to figure out Yos2 today. I know that's bad. I will reread him soon.

As a substitute, I offer my thoughts on
alexhans:

HEY!!! I was going to use that for my vote!!! (and to get the game going)

I may be reading too much into this, but it looks a little scummy. He still could have used this for a vote, but he didn't. And why is he bragging about how he planned to get the game going?
Someone else may have mentioned the above already... if so, I don't remember who or on what page it was.

I don't like how he starts a conversation about the setup, then complains about that conversation.

And now he's just been saying "I'm going to post" over and over. As if he can't say anything that he hasn't spent hours and hours writing.

And while writing this post, I see another dozen posts have come up...

[Herodotus]

@BaB: what is the current vote count on Ekim?

[Herodotus]

I'm agreeing with Yos2's point against BaB (specifically the one related to Xyl.)

[Herodotus]

@BaB: what is the current vote count on Ekim?

n/m. I thought it was a lot higher than it was, and that BaB was voting without considering where the wagon was at.

[Herodotus]

(a) He hasn't seemed interested in BaB posting his suspicions. Granted, BaB has been stalling, but no one else would have known he would.

This is correct.

Okay, now why? I can see a couple scummy motives, but only one possible pro-town motive is coming to mind -- that being that the lynch on BaB-scum could lose steam. This seems improbable, given the high number of players who want to lynch him.

I'm not sure whether BaB is town or scum.
I'm pretty sure that among the people voting him now or having unvoted him recently, there are more than one scum. I feel it best to scumhunt from among the voters.

This would only be relevant if the (expected) density of scum on that bandwagon would be higher than in the town as a whole.

When you doubt even that, like you do, it makes no sense to limit your scope in this way.

Or when you think extra information may be available regarding those people, i.e. bandwagon votes.

Megapost 463 is mega. Will read it later.

[Herodotus]

Hero, when was I a jester?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11092
Jester townie. I mostly remember that game for the claims.

Being a daytalking lover mason is pretty awesome, btw.

[Herodotus]

Well done, town.

Also, VP was pretty convincing. It was only near the end of the game, after a lot of the other people were eliminated, that I started suspecting him.