/in-Vitational Game 4 (Game Over!)

[Thesp]

/I-have-received-my-Role-PM-and-I-am-ready-to-play-with-all-of-these-nice-people.

[Thesp]

alexhans, what's so interesting about even numbers?
BridgesAndBaloons, do you enjoy having town roles or scum roles more? On an unrelated note, are you happy?
charter, have you missed me?
Claus, are you scum?
ekiM, who's one of your scumbuddies?
elvis_knits, do you find happiness in receiving role PMs?
Herodotus, what do you think of random voting?
iamausername, what do you think of self-voting?
inHimshallibe, do you swear by all that is holy that if you lurk, we can murder you?
Kmd4390, are you scum?
Ojanen, why did you eat breakfast after seeing the murder? Doesn't the sight of blood make your stomach turn?
populartajo, why'd you do it?
roflcopter, what do you think of question-asking in general?
SerialClergyman, how much have you played mafia in real life? What's one of your real life tells?
Shabba, magic traaaaaaaaaaain?
VP Baltar, can you PM your scumbuddies and let them know we've started?
Xylthixlm, can non-alpaca be scum? Or are the scum simply alpacas in hiding?
Yosarian2, why can't you tell the difference between the first post and the 44th post?
zu_Faul, why? I thought we were friends.

[Thesp]

Claus, are you scum?

I'm sad that you couldn't think of a more interesting question for me

I'm sorry - I'm not as creative as I wish I could be. I had to come up with 19 questions! I think I had some overlap, too. Well, let's think - on a scale of 2 to 17, how crafty are you?

No I'm not scum. How about you?

Nope. Kinda happy about it.

Also, why are you not voting Yos?

This is an excellent question. I will get my crack team of investigators to find an answer to this, and report back when they've reached a consensus.

Better question for thesp. You got two dayvigs that you must spend immediately. Who do you pick?

zu_Faul with both, because he's voting for me, and I'd want to make sure I get past any protection.

[Thesp]

thesp, do you think a (presumably) random vote which is made with no additional text whatsoever is more likely to come from scum or town?

Ever so slightly more likely to be scum, but the distinction (if any) is likely darn close to negligible, and I don't have anything to actually back that up besides a best guess, so I don't hold any weight to my own opinion.

[Thesp]

You don't like random voting, Thesp?

Nope.

[Thesp]

Crud - I thought I had posted this line of thought, but I apparently didn't - retyping now.

charter, have you missed me?

Of course! That's why I put your name on the people I want to play with list.

I'm flattered!

I am deeply concerned by the continued absence of inHimshallibe, Kmd4390, Ojanen, populartajo, and Shabba. I'd wager there's at least one scum amongst those five players.

Gutsy call.

Ojanen, why did you eat breakfast after seeing the murder? Doesn't the sight of blood make your stomach turn?

I pretended it was ketchup. And sausages are yummy.
Why do you prefer flavor related questions to theory related ones?

I don't necessarily, but if all of my questions are on meta-theory, it's too easy for it to become a distraction from what's at hand.

VP Baltar, can you PM your scumbuddies and let them know we've started?

Done! Thanks for the reminder.

I like you.

Thesp, do you always ask questions like that?

I've taken to it recently - I like it!

What was the purpose of posting this sentence:

I have my own theories about what roles may be in this game but I've learned that setup speculation this early is pretty useless.

?

This is a good question.

After reading the first post, I thought there were 4 mafia + (optional) traitor too. The fact that E_k didn't come to the same conclusion as me is weird.

What gave you that impression? Please be specific.


For the record, I don't concur with the line of thinking that says kmd3490 has made a slip with regards to the number of scum. I don't find the Xylthixlm wagon that compelling right now either.

Balance suggests we probably have four scum, or five including a traitor, or five including a pair of mafia lovers, or five balanced by a bunch of town power roles.

Semirandom assignment suggests we can't assume balance.

So... probably four or five scum. Anything more is overthinking it.

This seems incredibly superfluous.

Vote: BridgesAndBaloons

. Most likely to be scum by far.

[Thesp]

Guessing there's at least on scum in five players is not a gutsy call.

I take it my sarcasm didn't translate well.

[Thesp]

@Thesp-why would you vote BnB instead of Kmd over the conclusion of how many scum are in the game when Kmd was the first person to give a definitive number?

I'm confused - I don't think there's been a "slip" of any sort on mafia numbers. I don't think BridgesAndBaloons is scum for positing a particular number of scum.

[Thesp]

I would like to know a few things about you thesp:
1- did your crack team of investigators come to any conclusion about Yos?
2- Which of the answers to your questions would you say were signs of pro-town/anti-town alignment? Which were interesting in other ways?
3- I'm interested in your scumread of BaB, would you elaborate?
4- What do you think about E_K?

1 - Sadly, no. They are still working him over, though, but they are more than a little intimidated by his giant sock puppet monster. (Unfortunately, my crack team of investigators is thimble-sized.)
2 - Any indicators were only very mild if at all useful. I found several answers humorous, though.
3 - Sure. I think elvis_knits's suspicion of Kmd3490 is genuine. The manner in which BridgesAndBaloons approached elvis_knits suggests to me that he's trying to exploit the suspicion on the number of people.
4 - I think she's town and wrong.

Thesp:
I'm get a few scummy vibes from thesp - he's playing with his cards too close to his chest.

I appreciate your close reading.

Thesp, if I lurk, kill me. Can I have the same call from you?

Sure!

Really though, I'd say 4 or 5. Still thinking 4 plus a traitor.

Why bother?

Thesp any conclusions of your questionnaire? What is your opinion of random voting?

Not much, though I like getting the talking going some. (Not sure how much ended up being necessary on my part.) I increasingly despise random voting.

For the record, I don't concur with the line of thinking that says kmd3490 has made a slip with regards to the number of scum. I don't find the Xylthixlm wagon that compelling right now either.

Tell me what made you think that.

I think kmd3490 was making a semi-random-semi-informed prediction as to who was scum just for giggles/reactions/boldness. It doesn't seem so extraordinary (though I can see why it might appear that way).

Bab wagon is better but still need to evaluate some things.

Like what?

Shabba/inHimshallibe, why do you, less than a half hour after Xyl calls out people for lurking (including both of you), pop up to make empty posts?

:goodposting:


I like the BridgesAndBaloons wagon - needs more participants. I'd also like to hear what VP Baltar's thoguhts are on things.

[Thesp]

i get the feeling kmd/bridges found themselves in a 4 person scumgroup, assumed that the sample role pms would simply state as much and therefore presented the information. upon discovering that the sample pms actually account for up to five scum, they are both now struggling to come up with reasons why they assumed 4, with such charming excuses as "i thought there were only 16 players." really? you haven't been paying attention to the more than a month long game placement process and announcement which very clearly indicated you had been placed in a 20 person game with only people who you were interested in playing with, or at the very least were not adverse to playing with? i don't buy it.

You think both saw each other's response and backed eash other up?

I find myself increasingly distrustful of Xylthixlm.

Why didn't anyone say this sooner? Like why didn't KMD say this sooner when I proved serious and voted him for this?? WTF.

I didn't say anything because I didn't want to speak for kmd3490. (His response is consistent with what I had thought he was originally communicating.)

I'm not thinking Kmd's slip was a probable legitimate slip after reading all the stuff but FoS: Kmd for the reaction.

Which reaction?

Happy birthday, inHimshallibe!

shabba's apparent lack of forum mafia experience gives me pause.

besides, a shabba wagon would take the wind out of the bridgewagon's sails, and that would be a real bummer since we should be lynching him pronto.

QFT - it extends beyond forum mafia as well - Shabba is still learning the nuances of the game. I agree on pushing, I don't think there's strong indicators of anything either way yet.

As far as Shabba is concerned, there are multiple players who are lurking a lot harder. Does anyone even remember that there are players in this game with the usernames "SerialClergyman" and "iamausername"?

vote: iamausername

While you are correct about this, your deflection of the BridgesAndBaloons wagon is noted.

This is my first forum mafia experience and I don't want to start it out being wrong and lynching an innocent person. I'm trying to be overly cautious.

Don't be afraid to be wrong. Heck, I've even been wrong once or twice before. (Read that as: many, many times.) At some point, you have to give it your best guess, and find out if you're right or wrong. Don't give in to analysis paralysis! (AP will be the topic of my next essay on mafia play.)


I still <3 the BridgesAndBaloons wagon and support getting a claim from her before we string her up.

[Thesp]

Deadline is September 1. Can you give me until August 28 at least? This seems fair. Town has nothing to lose from keeping me alive for a couple more weeks.

I strongly disagree with this. We've had slightly under 96 hours (four days) of day. In that time period, we've had almost 11 pages of posts. If posting was maintained at this level (which it may or may not), we'd be around 43 pages of dicsussion by then. I'm firmly of the belief that 43 pages of discussion is antagonistic to the town's purposes. If people want to go lynch someone else, so be it. But if people think you're the best lynch (as I do), we should go ahead and lynch you. Sure, poke some lurkers as you like to find out where they lie, but unnecessarily dragging out the day is inherently harmful to the town's ends.

I'm super happy with a BridgesAndBaloons lynch, especially with how Herodotus is acting.

[Thesp]

Also, if iamausername is not scum I'll eat my hat (see photo).

Who else is scummy?

This is a good question.

[Thesp]

I can't believe I'm doing this

unvote

I'm curious about this - whyfor?

I echo the thoughts of "I have no problem with BridgesAndBaloons dying right now", and I don't like the thought of waiting until even Saturday. BAB's got plenty of contribution.

Also, vig please take care of Herodotus tonight. Thanks!

[Thesp]

Thesp, when do you plan to enclose your reasons for heartily endorsing the BaB wagon (now and originally)?

3 - Sure. I think elvis_knits's suspicion of Kmd3490 is genuine. The manner in which BridgesAndBaloons approached elvis_knits suggests to me that he's trying to exploit the suspicion on the number of people.

Also, I think Herodotus outed himself as B&B's partner.

[Thesp]

A vanilla claim from a scummy person should cement their lynch, honestly. I mean, if you're not lynching a vanilla, who would you go through with the lynch on? Keep the claimed vanilla, kill the claimed doc? Because we think scum would fake a power role?

...

Also, tell me what kind of claim you would go through on the lynch of. BEcause if you won't lynch a vanilla claim, who are you going to lynch?

I'd failed to note this earlier - this is good.

Hey... Nobody DARE hammer before I get to post...

B&B is at L-2 if I'm not mistaken.

Why? (This bothers me.)

Thesp, when do you plan to enclose your reasons for heartily endorsing the BaB wagon (now and originally)?

3 - Sure. I think elvis_knits's suspicion of Kmd3490 is genuine. The manner in which BridgesAndBaloons approached elvis_knits suggests to me that he's trying to exploit the suspicion on the number of people.

Also, I think Herodotus outed himself as B&B's partner.

Wait, how is he outing himself?

See:

As far as Shabba is concerned, there are multiple players who are lurking a lot harder. Does anyone even remember that there are players in this game with the usernames "SerialClergyman" and "iamausername"?

vote: iamausername

While you are correct about this, your deflection of the BridgesAndBaloons wagon is noted.

I think elvis_knits's suspicion of Kmd3490 is genuine. The manner in which BridgesAndBaloons approached elvis_knits suggests to me that he's trying to exploit the suspicion on the number of people.

This is awful. If he just wanted to exploit suspicion, he probably would have voted KMD (unless KMD is his buddy.) No one had stated any suspicions of Elvis over the number of scum issue before BaB's vote, and only one person was voting for her. Your idea is that he left the wagon that was at 6 in order to exploit suspicions that had not yet been stated on someone who was at 1?

Absolutely. Why live with just one wagon? Seriously? I think he took elvis_knits's suspicion of Kmd3490 (which was based on the supposed "slip"), thought he'd be able to exploit it, and attacked her for it when her suspicion is perfectly reasonable (though I think she's wrong about it). His manouver appeared to me to be more like pressing an advantage rather than trying to find scum.

Thesp appears that he may bussing, and this is the strongest point for BaB-scum as opposed to BaB-townie-who-is-reacting-poorly. But I think he's a better lynch.

what

There is too much support for a BaB lynch for me to believe there aren't/weren't multiple scum on his wagon. Not that this makes him town, but I'm more interested in the wagon.

This is a really confusing statement. What sort of interest do you have in the wagon? Do you think BnB is a good lynch or not? If not, why are you not actively trying to persuade the town elsewhere?

What I meant was:
I'm not sure whether BaB is town or scum.
I'm pretty sure that among the people voting him now or having unvoted him recently, there are more than one scum. I feel it best to scumhunt from among the voters.

So out of ~11 people, at least two are scum? This doesn't seem like much of a bold prediction,

especially

when you feel like bussing is likely here.

What was the reason you didn't want to tell why you voted for him at that time?

I rarely think that explaining my initial vote (especially right away) is productive. I'm always interested to see who agrees with me and why, especially when they don't necessarily get to use my reasons for voting (unless they happen to agree with me). I think this information is ultimately useful.

3 - Sure. I think elvis_knits's suspicion of Kmd3490 is genuine. The manner in which BridgesAndBaloons approached elvis_knits suggests to me that he's trying to exploit the suspicion on the number of people.

This is awful. If he just wanted to exploit suspicion, he probably would have voted KMD (unless KMD is his buddy.) No one had stated any suspicions of Elvis over the number of scum issue before BaB's vote, and only one person was voting for her. Your idea is that he left the wagon that was at 6 in order to exploit suspicions that had not yet been stated on someone who was at 1?

I'm not exactly sure, because I find Thesp's comment a little confusing, but I think that Thesp means that "BaB was trying to exploit MY (elvis's) suspicion on the number of people (the slip, the 4 scum + 1 traitor thing)." Which means Thesp thinks BaB saw my suspicion and thought he could use it to make me look scummy. At least that is how I took it. It is not dependent on other people having expressed suspicion on me. We should probably get Thesp to clarify.

This is correct.

As scum, have you ever claimed vanilla?

Yes.

Why is Hero avoiding the bab wagon and voting Thesp using babscum as an excuse?

This is a good question. Looks like it was answered here:

It's the other way around. BaBscum is a consequence of Thespscum. But I am now thinking this connection may be weaker than I thought.

What specifically makes it look like one scum interacting with another scum to you?

Looks like you answered it, though I think the manner in which you arrived to "it looks like Thesp is bussing" is weird to me, to say the least.

@Ekim

The reasons for finding Ekim scummy are pretty straightforward. Ikem has lurked during most of the game, and still, managed to hop on the two biggest wagons: Xyl, on post 82 (5th vote), and BaB, on post 142 (6th vote).

On his Xyl vote, he also waved his hand at 5 players, calling them lurking scum. Which he cleared as a joke. On his BaB vote (his next vote after the Xyl vote), he makes a bunch of light questions to players, and doesn't follow up in any of those questions (although he does go V/LA 24 hours later).

Hopping on big bandwagons without contributing to the game is a pretty textbook scumtell, and the fact that very few people are pushing Ekim for it is another signal of scummyness: If he was town, I can see scum making a case on him early and go for a "righteous myslinch".

I fully support the Ekim pressure, for this and other reasons.

A bunch of small nothings, then his post (2 days later) he finally explains his accusation on BnB, saying that he suspects him for trying to "exploit E_K's suspicion of the number of scum". At that time, I found it funny because I (and others) also attacked E_K for her "slip" attack on KMD, and still Thesp did not list us as scum, or comment, or anything like that.

The manner in which BridgesAndBaloons approached it felt different from the manner you and others did. I didn't like the elvis_knits wagon either way.

Also, Thesp dodges my other questions ("what do you think of Yos? and "what were your questions useful for?")

Sorry I missed those. I jested about Yosarian2 earlier because I didn't have much of a line of thinking on him at all. I still don't - I find him largely uninteresting. My answer re: my initial questions:

2 - Any indicators were only very mild if at all useful. I found several answers humorous, though.

...is fairly straightforward, I'm not sure how else I can answer it without being distracting.

Still, there is one big problem with this: 200 posts later, pushing the wagon every big post he makes, I would expect a town player to have more reasons to lynch his main suspect.

The biggest thing for me since is that I haven't seen anything from BridgesAndBaloons to dissuade me that my suspicion was not well founded. (Also, see Herodotus.) I'm a big believer of the line of thinking that scum players do not ooze scumminess with every post they make, nor are scum flamingly more obvious every time they post. I'm more minimalist like that.

I'm not wild about the Kmd3490-as-scum line of thinking.

He is on the vote-elvis-to-defend-kmd train. Also he keeps raining on the parade of every other wagon, while simultaneously not explaining why none of my explanations or further actions cause him to reevaluate me at all.

He should be considered.

How do you think this fits/doesn't fit/other with his already stated approach of slowing bandwagons down?

(a) He hasn't seemed interested in BaB posting his suspicions. Granted, BaB has been stalling, but no one else would have known he would.

This is correct.

After I posted, voicing my concerns about mislynching on day one, Thesp said to me:

Don't be afraid to be wrong. Heck, I've even been wrong once or twice before. (Read that as: many, many times.) At some point, you have to give it your best guess, and find out if you're right or wrong. Don't give in to analysis paralysis! (AP will be the topic of my next essay on mafia play.)

I still <3 the BridgesAndBaloons wagon and support getting a claim from her before we string her up.

He knows what a newbie I am, and I guess when he started trying to persuade me to lose my fear of "being wrong" (i.e. lynching town), I started to look at him in a scummy light. (Thesp, if you were just being nice to me, i'm sorry! )

FoS: inHimshallibe, Thesp

Being afraid to be wrong (and being afraid to place a vote and/or lynch someone) can paralyze a town if they don't just take a stab and hope that they're right at some point. When will you place a vote? Three days before the deadline? At some point, you need to move. Don't let analysis paralysis win. What's kept you from voting with your last post?

FOS: alexhans.

Needs more BridgesAndBaloons lynch.

[Thesp]

zufaul - seems to stop progress for no reason (slowing attacks on bridges, shabba, discouraging herodotus's lurker hunt, reprimanding xyl for too much vote hopping... these all impede the progress of a game. Pressuring people gives us better reads, so what zu is doing is bad).

This is my usual scum-hunting tactic. It works pretty well.
(/in before people accusing me of hypocrisy. It is much different from halting the game like BAB wants to, as what he is doing does not provide us with any more information, while slowing the impetus (on people who are not scummy) is doing so.)

Can you explain your approach more and how it helps you tell allignments? Because I don't understand how it's scum hunting to stop wagons on people who you've said yourself are not entirely townie. How do you get info this way?

I am not stopping the wagons.

Slowing down something allows you to look at it more closely. I think it is quite simple.

There is a practical limit to this which has a point of diminishing returns for this, which is rapidly accelerated in larger games.

[Thesp]

Slowing down something allows you to look at it more closely. I think it is quite simple.

There is a practical limit to this which has a point of diminishing returns for this, which is rapidly accelerated in larger games.

Like everything, it is only good in moderation. You think I overdid it already?

I think it's far less "necessary" in a large game than a small one (if it's necessary at all), and it is likely (and so far appears to me to be)counterproductive today.

(a) He hasn't seemed interested in BaB posting his suspicions. Granted, BaB has been stalling, but no one else would have known he would.

This is correct.

Okay, now why? I can see a couple scummy motives, but only one possible pro-town motive is coming to mind -- that being that the lynch on BaB-scum could lose steam. This seems improbable, given the high number of players who want to lynch him.

Can you give me a compelling reason why I'd care what his suspicions are when I think he's likely enough to be scum so as to want him lynched?

i'm confused. why isn't bridges dead yet?

I agree. He gave a scum list. That's what people wanted. It was nonsensical as expected.

Now we need:

=====[]

This is a good post in every way.

[Thesp]

lets lynch charter, but not tell him why.

vote charter

This made me LOL. =P

I came in wanting to vote for VP Baltar, but I agree with his push on SerialClergyman.

Why do you think I supported the claim, if that had nothing to do with my vote?

It's rather arbitrary to say you support the claim of someone who is at L-2. It's pretty much guaranteed to happen.

I disagree with this.

I feel like Yos is putting gasoline to a town-town fight and I don't like it.

I agree with this - I'm not feeling elvis_knits or Kmd3490 as scum.

roflcopter, voting for Kmd3490? Really?

I like pressure on ekiM.

I need to reread, but this seems like a good place to park my vote in the mean time.

Vote: SerialClergyman

I don't like the built-in out here.

There are too many people I'd be happy voting for - I'm going to be unproductive and vote none of them right now. I'll fix that soon.

[Thesp]

Catching up now, my apologies. The past 8 days have been rotten - perhaps the worst of the year.

[Thesp]

I disagree with this.

Based on what? It's especially true of the BaB wagon yesterday given the number of people not voting, but saying they would be willing to support.

I've seen too many times when people have been pushed close to lynch, but haven't because a majority of people had not expressed a desire for such a person to claim (in their opinion). I think supporting a claim in such an instance is a good thing, especially since it helps preclude this stalling defense.

solid logic there

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not (I think it is), can you enlighten me?

Bandwagoning someone to a claim, and then trying to drop the wagon and bandwagon someone else once they claim vanilla, is a scum tell, especally on day 1. Those kind of tactics, repeated bandwagon-to-a-claim stuff, are just the easiest way for a scum to flush out town power roles.

Sort-of agree, sort-of disagree. Unvoting because the claim was vanilla is bad, definitely, but there may be other reasons. Do you think that Kmd dropped BaB just because he was vanilla, or do you think there were other reasons?

I'm liking Xylthixlm more as town.

Plus I've never been one for the first day(s) anyway.

I don't like this. At all.

Note to self - review IAAUN/SC on a later day.

VP Baltar needs to die.

I've seen the term "chainsawing" thrown around a bit, and I thought I had a sense of what it meant, but my thoughts weren't consistent with what seems to be expressed by it. Can someone who is familiar with the term as it's being used explain what is meant by "chainsawing"? Thanks.

5) I particularly like this from rofl:

serial is chainsawing for kmd hard, and at this point attacking yos is a scumtell.

Unless you've got some knowledge about Yos2 that I don't have, looks like you're doing exactly the same thing.

So, what, you're rolefishing now? FOS: SerialClergyman

This feels like quite a reach.

ekiM -- Who do you think is scum? I have no idea who you are suspicious of.

Patience.

It's running out.

Sigh. A scum tell is an action that a scum player is more likely to take than a town player in the same situation.

You asked me if [trying to undermine a line of thought that only damages you if you are scum] is a scumtell. A scum player is much more motivated to do so than a town player, so it is a scum tell.

You haven't demonstrated this at all. (I also disagree with your conclusion.)

I wonder why nobody is bothered that they don't know what PookyTheMagicalBear's suspicions are?

Are you bothered by it?

I wonder why nobody is bothered that they don't know what PookyTheMagicalBear's suspicions are?

I wonder why you accused people of not accusing Pooky rather than just accusing pooky yourself.

This.

Thesp seems to be suspicious of VP, Serial, ekim. He thinks both me and kmd are town.

This is fairly accurate (though not in that order), though I'm increasingly uncomfortable about Yosarian2. His approval of the SerialClergy wagon makes me uncomfortable about that wagon. I also don't like alexhans/PookyTheMagicalBear, but I'm torn by my natural love for Pooky and personal distatste with lynching people immediately upon entry into the game.

As an aside, I may stab the next person who uses the phrase OMGUS. In the gall bladder. With a highlighter. (It's the closest thing to me right now.)

I want to hear more from tajo.
His BaB hammer left me debating whether it was sincere. Dunno why. Otherwise his points have been mostly tajo-style catch ups or reasonable but smallish points, which sets my alarms slightly. The scumlist he's asking from Mike would be nice from him too, very preferably with reasoning.

I agree with you (and feel similarly about VP Baltar's vote on B&B).

charter, thesp - why aren't you voting anyone right now?

Fixing this now.

Taking quote in context...

5) I particularly like this from rofl:

serial is chainsawing for kmd hard, and at this point attacking yos is a scumtell.

Unless you've got some knowledge about Yos2 that I don't have, looks like you're doing exactly the same thing.

For the record, I did not interpret that as asking about investigation when I read it.

Agreed.

The Yos2/Serial argument has gone well past the point of diminishing returns. Why keep going?

I'm truly saddened that I haven't gotten to play more (or any!) games of mafia with you before now.

Vote: Ekim.

I'd be equally happy voting VP Baltar or Yosarian2, and I like votes on PookyTheMagicalBear as well.

[Thesp]

Several people seem to be up for a Baltar wagon, anyone wanna join me? (Thesp?)

Choo choo!

Unvote: Ekim, Vote: VP Baltar.

[Thesp]

Overall, I like VP's answers in his last post and it brought some things to my attention, like that he put BaB at L-1, which I didn't remember.

He did this when I felt it was fairly clear that B&B was going to be lynched anyway, and he seemd preemptively defensive about his vote when placing it.

I thought the L-1 vote was discussed quite a lot. I don't really see how an "overload of information, ok I'll vote BaB and someone should hammer" post makes Baltar more pro-townly involved exactly.

QFT.

I'm good with a VP Baltar lynch. Yosarian2, what do you think?

[Thesp]

I think it was more than fishing. More like whaling. I wasn't going to mention it if you wanted to ignore it... but now I can!

Why is it everyone beats me to what I want to say?

[Thesp]

I'm good with a VP Baltar lynch. Yosarian2, what do you think?

Another Thesp-is-scum-ism! Why is he asking Yos when he would be fine voting for Yos?

1) To ascertain how confident I am in my suspicions of Yosarian2,
2) To force Yosarian2 to take some sort of position on VP Baltar,
3) To highlight Yosarian2's noncommittal on VP Baltar, or
4) A combination of the first three.

(It's #4.)

[Thesp]

not much time at the moment, i'm not happy to see that the serial wagon has completely evaporated.

unvote, vote: xyl

he should know better than to vote for yos again at this point

Howso?

(Looks like Ojanen beats me to this question.)

Populartajo, glad to hear your Grandpa is doing better. My prayers are with you and yours.

The walls of text are becoming problematic.

He put him at L-1 the second time around, when BAB had already been claimed for ages and people were asking for him to be hammered. BAB was dead meat. It's hardly putting yourself out there to make that vote. What I was referring to was him not commenting seriously on wagons whilst they were ongoing. The omission here is VP's, by making it sound like he put BAB at L-1 pre-claim. He was NOT being proactive wrt the BAB wagon. Putting BAB at L-1 right at the end of the day doesn't mean squat, and VP pretending it does is bad.

For an example, here's a wishy washy comment from VP about the BAB wagon earlier that I find troublesome

"Some of this BnB stuff is becoming a bit muddled for me as I'm going along here. This is the usual setback I find with larger games and lots of competent players, a million lines of questioning happening that lose focus. I can already tell this is going to be a long game.

...

Bridges is a reasonable enough wagon for D1, though I would hope we can put the brakes on a little bit until some of the more background players (ekiM, iamausername, SerialClergyman, etc) weigh in and answer some questions."

Quoted for highlighting and massive agreement.

Yos2 needs more votes. Come on people. Don't make me actually put together a case.

Surely the vig can take care of him, if he's not busy offing alexhans/Pooky. We can get VP Baltar now.

Out of the Yos and Xyl in the last pages, I find myself agreeing with Yos more (here come the buddying accusations).

That's funny, I'm feeling the opposite.

I want to lynch VP Baltar.
I'm wary of Yos, and actually tajo.
I don't understand charter at the moment.

I feel like in this game I have 3 day masons (you're one of them), where peoples' thoughts jive with my own. This is spot on and agrees with me entirely.

Still happy with a VP Baltar lynch.

[Thesp]

I find it very hard to follow the Xylthixlm wagon when I agree with almost everything Xyl says, and I find some of his questions probing and on target.

[Thesp]

Do you often see a wagon build on scum that fast?

No. Do you often see a wagon on town build that fast? Outside of lylo situations, I mean.

On this note, I rarely see

any

wagon build that fast. The last time I remember one going like that, it hit scum. (Actually, in what few quickish runups I can recall seeing, they've hit scum and not town.)

Pretending you have role info when you don't is scummy.

QFT.

Why aren't we lynching rofl again?

Because we're lynching VP Baltar. (Hopefully, though increasingly unlikely.)

[Thesp]

Ironic that now that Xyl is at L-1 he wants to be helpful and sort of try and scumhunt. Too late I say.

And you think VP Baltar is

town?

[Thesp]

I'm frustrated with myself for not finding the time to fight the Xylthixlm wagon harder yesterday.

I'm more than a little surprised to see VP Baltar getting almost no real attention or votes, particularly with how yesterday went down. Sure, there's a substantial chance that Pooky's scum because we haven't seen hardly anything townie out of him (vig? where were you last night on either of these two?), yet there's still a greater chance VP Baltar is scum. Things from yesterday haven't gone away, moreso when two significant people on his wagon yesterday have turned up pro-town, and one of them was a friggin' goon cop who waffled on his initial vote, then went full-force on a VP Baltar vote. Can someone explain why VP Baltar isn't strung from his neck until he is dead yet?

Vote: VP Baltar.

[Thesp]

And I am still wondering about wagon speed (which made me think VP was likely town before).

Minivitational XI featured a quick (~36 hour) bandwagon lynch that ended up being on mafia. This was most certainly affected by a deadline, but it sticks out in my mind strongly as an instance where someone who was sort of scummy to many people suddenly got attention he previously didn't have. (I apologize in advance for linking to that game - reading parts of it still makes me want to quit the site, even though it was long ago.)

1. "There are two people who were attacking him yesterday who we now know are pro-town!" Translation: the scum killed someone last night who was attacking VP Balter yesterday, except no one seems to want to put it that way, I guess because if they did then it would be obvious that it was a weak WIFOM argument.

I'm not entirely convinced that the mafia killed Ojanen for pursuing VP Baltar (though there's a slight possiblity of it), I think it's more likely they killed Ojanen because it was extremely unlikely that she'd ever get lynched, given how many people were spouting her as town. However, with two of the people who were strongly on the town, I think it deflates at least a bit of the concern re: the speed of the wagon. (If not, it requires some far more specific concerns about it.)

2. "A goon cop was voting him!" Do you really think she had a guilty on him? It seems pretty clear to me that she didn't, reading her posts. She didn't "waffle" on her initial vote, she came out hard against eikM and stayed there for a long time.

I don't think it's clear at all that she didn't have a guilty on him, she said she was voting Ekim "for now", has an about face midday, aggressively pursues VP Baltar and never lets up and reaffirms her votes repeatedly. I don't think it's ironclad by any means, but I do think it's notable.

I've seen a couple of people state that they think VP Baltar is town - for those that havem can you explain to me why you think that? I don't see it at all.

Needs more VP Baltar/Yosarian2/Pooky death.

[Thesp]

I have

reasons

to believe that rofl does not have the role he has been soft claiming. HINT HINT.

I've read back over roflcopter's posts and don't see any softclaiming. Perhaps I'm oblivious? Could you point me somewhere?

[Thesp]

Gotcha. I think I want a full claim from roflcopter.

[Thesp]

If they both claim and iamausername's info does implicate roflcopter then we should lynch roflcopter; I don't see why iamascum would come out with false info like that to secure a single lynch (we can't be in LYLO yet and a 1-1 scum-town trade at this point should favor the town). And if it turns out that iamausername's info isn't actually a compelling case for a rofl lynch then iamausername should probably be lynched for inciting unnecessary claims when he should know better.

The reason roflcopter should claim first is that roflscum could modify his claim to match what info iamatown has, but I don't see how knowing rofltown's claim would help iamascum cook up plausible false info to implicate rofltown.

They need to both get here so we can sort it out.

I agree with both of these entiments

[Thesp]

I want to see roflcopter claim first.

[Thesp]

Copycat.

[Thesp]

I join the several voices expressing confusion at the thought of a Yosarian2 wagon at this point.

The thing I do not like about this whole thing is that iamausername forced the claim of two powerroles, rofl and himself, which has resulted in no clear plan or damning evidence.

I mean, if iamausername is a jailkeeper who jailed rofl night 1, he had to hope that rofl would claim a result for N1, and then he could say "NO YOU LIAR YOU WERE JAILED YOU'RE SCUM DIE NAO KTHNXBI." (I may have misspelled the internetz lingo there).

Yet when rofl claims a result N1, iamausername says "hey maybe I was blocked. Let's lynch your innocent result to make sure."

WTF

While I agree with this, I don't think it leads to a conclusion of IAmAUsername as being scum.

I don't know what I want to do at this point. I'm tempted to just lynch charter instead.

This made me giggle with appreciation.

I personally think if there is a mafia roleblocker who happened to block IAUN N1 and not rofl N2, the game is essentially gone. It's so ridiculous to pick that it's not worth worrying about. So I think we have to assume someone is lying. Provided there aren't 6 scum, we should have two lynches, so in the end, the correct decision is going to save us one mislynch.

I disagree with this. I think it's mildly plausible on one end, and on the other end, I think it's better not to puruse at this moment in time. If roflcopter is telling the truth, let the scum figure out what to do with him. If he's lying, it will come out. (I think both have appeared pretty genuine either way in this.) If we were really going to go with a "let's lynch one of them based on utility", IAmAUsername would be the clear lynch-winner there, but I don't think he's lying (I don't see why scum-IAAU would have played this out like he has). If anything, I think roflcopter is more suspicious here, but I don't think lynching him today is worthwhile.

I think a

Pooky

lynch is the most worthwhile. If forced to choose between IAAU and roflcopter, I'd pick roflcopter, but I don't think he's the best lynch today.

Unvote: VP Baltar, Vote: PookyTheMagicalBear

.

[Thesp]

I don't get that at all.

To my mind you're opening yourself up for a townflip on a third party and then we're in a lylo situation with a 50/50. At least if we get rofl or iam wrong, we'll then have a scum lynch and a lot of info.

And the only reason you wouldn't is if there was a mafia roleblcoker (who would have unlimited shots) who would have blocked IAUN N1 and noone N2. Surely that's hugely unlikely.

What suggests they would have blocked no one night 2? Also, why would Pooky flip town? (I've seen diddlysquat to suggest this would be the case.) Also, do you think the night would bring us some more info on today's situation?

I'm not convinced this is an either/or situation as you have put it.

[Thesp]

I'm not standing up for Pooky or charter - it's possible either would flip town or scum. But when you have a 1/2 chance and 2 chances, I don't know why you wouldn't take it when the alternative is guessing on the rest.

I think the chance of Pooky flipping scum is greater than the chances of roflcopter flipping scum, and I think the perils of lynching roflcopter incorrectly

today

outweigh the usefulness of lynching him today.

[Thesp]

I can't agree. Unless you find a way around the roleblocker issue, a lynch of rofl or iam gives us a surefire scum lynch either today or tomorrow, plus a clusterfuck of info. Taking a stab at a random other play isn't worth it, imo.

I respectfully disagree. (I think a roleblock of IAAU on N1 is plausible, though unlikely.) You haven't convinced me that Pooky is "random"

at all

, though you keep suggesting it is.

[Thesp]

Informal poll - who thought

before last night

that roflcopter was softclaiming role information? (This will be helpful, I think.)

I didn't.

[Thesp]

Informal poll - who thought

before last night

that roflcopter was softclaiming role information? (This will be helpful, I think.)

I didn't.

I didn't. I've seen several games where rofl plays his "this person is town" game. He does the same thing when he calls people scum too (and often to good accuracy from what I've seen). So, no, I figured he was just playing his usual gut style.

This was my understanding as well.

If they are both town, and we don't lynch either one of them today, then there's a chance that one or the other would be able to confirm themselves tonight, and there's also a chance the mafia will feel the need to kill one of them tonight. It's probably not that likely that Iamusername was blocked by a scum roleblocker, though.

Also, I'm not liking the "lynch rofl and then if he's town we have two confirmed innocents" camp here. If rofl is town, then if we don't lynch him, we're likely to either get another confirmed innocent tomorrow or else force the scum to use their kill on him. If someone really thinks he's scum, then that's one thing, but you don't lynch a cop just to find out if he's telling the truth, that's insane.

I agree with the part of this that's not suspicious of IAAU.

ROFL: Why did you favor lynching vanilla bridges if you have the ability to check vanilla status?

This is an excellent question.

Third, I find EK incredibly suspect. After all this talk, she talks a lot about how IAUN's actions don't make sense or whatever, but no votes from it, she's voting me, a pointless vote.

There are others who have concerns about rofl/IAAU but haven't voted for either of them, why is Elvis_knits special?

I'm really not liking the entirety of the post this comes from.

Did you read iaun's story? It was a really bad one that looks quite scummy.

I thought it flowed pretty naturally, actually - to me it looked like it was

perfectly

consistent with how town might have acted there.

Does anyone here think that alexhans/PookyTheMagicalBear is likely to be town? At all?

If we do lynch someone else though, can anyone give a good reason why it shouldn't be Pooky?

Nope.

[Thesp]

I'd be happy with a Pooky or charter lynch. I'd be ok with a rofl or iaun lynch. Please don't make me choose between those two.

This.

[Thesp]

There are others who have concerns about rofl/IAAU but haven't voted for either of them, why is Elvis_knits special?

I missed them, who else did this?

Me, for one.

Zu Faul and Thesp, if you were to vote for one of rofl/iaun, who would it be?

Still roflcopter, by a good bit.

[Thesp]

Our choices are:
1)Rofl is scum
2)Iamausername was blocked
3)Iamausername is scum who decided it would be a good idea to fake claim out of nowhere

I would like everyone to say which of the above 1, 2, 3 they think is most likely and why.

The only reason we should lynch someone outside of rofl/iam is if people think iam was blocked. Or they just don't have the balls to deal with the situation.

While all 3 are conceivable, I think #1 is most likely, followed by #2 with #3 a distant last likelihood. However, you have failed to demonstrate that this necessarily entails that lynching the best guess as to scum in this particular situation is the best play. In fact, compelling arguments have been put forth that a third party lynch is not only viable, but perhaps

better

,such as one espoused by Yosarian2 (which closely emulates my thoughts):

If ROFL is telling the truth, and is a cop, then we already effectively HAVE two confirmed innocents, or will whenever he dies, which is basically the same thing in principle. And if he is a cop, he will die, and fairly soon I expect; scum can't leave a cop around forever. You're talking about losing us a cop, and only getting in exchange information we already are guaranteed to get anyway.

---

Let me put forth a case on why I think iamausername is likely being truthful here.

I'll also note that my town-hunting skills focus largely around people doing small things that are a natural part of being pro-town that are unlikely to be fabricated by scum:
1) His early distrust of roflcopter seems genuine, and his story of how he blocked roflcopter as a lone dissenter feels very natural, plausible and genuine. He sniped at roflcopter during D1, and gave even more pressure to him on D2, which is terribly consistent with a pro-town roleblocker who decided to take a shot at blocking scum on N1.
2) Later, he says this:

Pretending you have role info when you don't is scummy.

QFT.

Why aren't we lynching rofl again?

This seems incredibly consistent with how a pro-town player would act and post if they had indeed blocked someone N1, then that target vaguely suggests that they may have role info that the roleblocker would know would be impossible/extremely unlikely.

3) Furthermore, his reticence to follow through on a roflcopter lynch

also

seems far more likely to come from a pro-town player than from scum:

So, yeah, I don't have 100% damning evidence that rofl is scum, if I did, I would have just gone ahead and said so without waiting for a claim from him first. If you really think that necessitates a lynch on me, then I guess go ahead, but I don't believe that what I've done here has hurt the town.

By the way, we're not lynching rofl today. It would clearly be a better idea to lynch Yos, because he is definitely scum if rofl is scum, and on the off chance that rofl is actually telling the truth, we'd be lynching a vanilla rather than a cop.

This seems more hap-hazardly thought out than cold and calculated. iamausername seems aware that there's a possibility that we're screwed on a freakish N1 block, and sees some value in not lynching a claimed cop.

If roflcopter had planned on outing roflcopter's role, why do it in this manner? Why claim to be an X-shot roleblocker and

then push for someone other than roflcopter

? His final delivery is too haphazard and ephemeral to be as cold and calculated as a set-up fake claim here.

I don't see iamausername as scum. At all.

Moreover, I find the questioning of roflcopter re: the BridgesAndBaloons lynch to be intriguing - his behavior to B&B's claim is diametrically opposed to the approach to VP Baltar's claim. This doesn't seem very consistent for a pro-town Vanilla Cop throughout the game.

There's more, but this is the heart of it, and I don't want to clutter things further than necessary. My apologies for the length of this post, but I thought it was important.

---

I just think scum would rather go for a mislynch on somebody else, rather than construct a fake claim in order to lynch a power role, which would result in confirming two innocents. It's not 100%, but I just think Iam fakeclaiming is unlikely. If you disagree, explain why.

Well, except in Iam's original gambit, it wouldn't have resulted in "two confirmed innocents", since it looks like he was hoping to get me lynched first.

I'm disturbed by the thought that you think his push on you was a calculated gambit - I'm having a hard time imagining that you'd be lynched after the claims came out as they did. More importantly,

I'm having a hard time imagining that a calculated scum move would expect that a push for your lynch would be in any way effective or likely to succeed

. This is another thing that disturbs me - I'm incredibly distrustful of both of the players that have been "cleared" by roflcopter.

All that said, I think another night of both iamausername and roflcopter staying alive is more likely to be productive than counter-productive. I still think a Pooky lynch is incredibly likely to hit scum, particularly since he continues to give no reason for anyone to think he's town (while I can see some considerations for most other players in the game). I think Pooky is still the best lynch for today. If forced, I will vote for roflcopter over a no-lynch.

[Thesp]

Fine
unvote, vote Roflcopter

This doesn't sound like someone who's convinced.

WTF?

Rofl is town.

Howso?

[Thesp]

I don't see what's insane about Tajo's move as scum. He claims to have role info clearing rofl and a bunch of other people (probably mostly scum, maybe not all to get the town ones good will). The lynch is steered to a third party scum know is town. Tomorrow is probably LYLO and scum with the help of a townie or two lynch iamausername or another townie for the win.

Do you think it's likely that he's fake-claiming as he is?

(iamausername touches on my thoughts re: the roleclaim later as well - it's pretty darn consistent.)

I also think, that if a vig claims and isn't countered, then we should lynch tajo today, because it A) prevents losing tonight if the person he hides behind is killed or he hides behind scum B) either nets a scum (virtually two or three) or four confirmed townies.

I'm not sure I follow you. Why not no-lynch instead, given this concern?

Still good with a PookyLynch, though I'd like to hear a claim first.

[Thesp]

I'm also wondering how we should plan if there is a scum RB.

I suspect this is likely.

charter, ekiM, zu and Thesp; we are waiting on you. When ~75% of players have already claimed, clearly a massclaim is happening. Any further resistance to the idea is just halting progress.

I'm good with that.

I'm vanilla town.

I don't like the lynch tajo plan, because I think he is town, and I think SerialClergyman is scum derailing the lynch that was about to happen on his buddy Pooky.

I don't like any deflection of the Pookywagon either.

There are a crapton of claimed roles - I'm guessing we have a mafia roleblocker and possibly a mafia godfather. Anyone know what happens if a Mafia GF who is InvImm is investigated by a Vanilla Cop?

WE CAN'T VIG TAJO. If there's a roleblocker, it won't work.

This is also true if populartajo is a NKImm GF.

I think zu faul is scum guys. I've been thinking he was a cop or info role of some kind since beginning of day 2 when he clearly breadcrumbed that Thesp was town.

This is the post I am talking about:

Which game, VP Baltar? I assumed that his absense was legitimate.

I think Thesp is a good citizen.

There are still some questions directed at ekiM, would love an answer.

Thanks for jogging my memory of that - I'd read that post the exact same way at the time. Huge

FOS: zu_Faul

- we can get him next.

I don't think lynching someone I think is town is ideal at this juncture, so I'm not voting populartajo. I'd much, much rather see a Pooky lynch and I'm surprised it's evaporated. ekiM and zu_faul need to vote

now

. Yosarian2, Pooky and roflcopter need to move to a wagon that can do something.

I will do my darnedest to post tonight, though I'm not sure that I'd take a populartajo lynch over no lynch.

[Thesp]

Also, of note, nobody claimed protective roles except SC and iamausername, which would seem to indicate that atleast one of them is telling the truth.

I don't follow this logic at all.

Also, Mafia GF (if InvImm) shows up as vanilla town to a Vanilla Cop. We're not out of the woods yet.

[Thesp]

Also, of note, nobody claimed protective roles except SC and iamausername, which would seem to indicate that atleast one of them is telling the truth.

I don't follow this logic at all.

Don't you think there's probably atleast one protective role in the game?

Not necessarily, is there something I've missed? What suggests that there is one?

[Thesp]

Not buying rofl's story.

Me neither, but if he flips town we lynch thesp tomorrow and have VP and Yos confirmed town.

I don't think we can go wrong there.

I'm good with that.

Vote: roflcopter.

While I think the "Vote Yosarian2" first idea is novel, I'm more of a bird-in-the-hand kind of guy - the evidence against roflcopter is close to ironclad (or almost as close as you can get in mafia), and the case on Yosarian2 is compelling but not as clear-cut. I'm all for the rofl lynch.

Actually, I say we lynch zu faul right after Yos. Zu faul was clearly lying about his "thesp is a good citizen" statement,

LYING? WHAT THE FUCK, CHARTER. "CLEARLY LYING"? HAHAHA. And elvis just swallows it.
Look, I am going to spell it out for you, since you are going to ask anyway: Accusing someone of a lie is a huge accusation in the game of mafia. You are accusing me of a lie, when I made a statement reagarding the alignment of a player. There was no way I could have known his alignment. You can't lie if you don't know the truth. Sometime you are just wrong in the game of mafia. I was wrong (maybe?) on Thesp's alignment. So what? That is not a lie.

There's a clear difference here - the "citizen" word is pretty synonymous with townie - it looks an awful lot like trying to breadcrumb (and for someone who apparently missed roflcopter's "breadcrumb", it stuck out to me like one).

[Thesp]

Thesp, why didn't you mention that rofl has to be lying, from your point of view? He said you weren't a vanilla, but you don't mention this. How come?

I thought it was obvious. Is it not?

rofl is not going to flip town. THEREFORE we should lynch Yos. The fact that rofl, and now Thesp (potential scum) would rather lynch rofl first tells me Yos is probably godfather. Unvote rofl before Yos can hammer him. Vote Yos.

Hmm. I like this strain of thinking. The only hesitation I have is, "What if roflcopter is a/the Mafia Roleblocker?"

But now, I'm not so sure that's terribly important. Actually, I don't mind taking a moment to see if this thought process is worth considering.

Unvote: roflcopter.

[Thesp]

The only hesitation I have is, "What if roflcopter is a/the Mafia Roleblocker?"

This made me laugh.

Doesn't the phrasing mean there might be more than one mafia roleblocker? Why would anyone think that?

Scare me more, Thesp. I like the thrill.

I intend to mean the phrasing to indicate that the mafia may or may not have a roleblocker, though I certainly see other constructions of my phrasing. (It's possible that the mafia has more than one roleblocker, but I'm not sure how worthwhile that speculation is at this point.)

[Thesp]

Also, I'm liking the thought of vigging roflcopter more and lynching Yosarian2, with the only hesitation being that I've missed why it's so compelling that Yosarian2 is a godfather of roflcopter, other than roflcopter "cleared" Yosarian2. I need to go back and look.

[Thesp]

I would rather not go for a possible 2-fer-1 trying to lynch a possible GF, who if we're wrong will really screw us up. If rofl is traitor, we lynch Yos tomorrow and he's probably GF. There's nothing really lost by doing it that way. It takes an extra day, but we can afford that. We cannot afford to lynch yos first if for some reason he flips town.

Do you think Yosarian2 should be allowed near the endgame?

Really, the only reason we shouldn't be lynching roflcopter is if we think there's a reasonable chance that roflcopter is the traitor, and that the person we'd be lynching would be their Godfather. Looking back, I think there's a reasonably likely chance this is the case with Yosarian2.

Even if we lynch roflcopter first, we're still going to be left with, "what do we do with Yosarian2?". Is there anyone who thinks he's likely to be town? If so, you'd better speak up now. If not, we're going to have to lynch him at some point (or vig him, which there might be issues with if he's a NK-Immune-GF).

If we think there's a reasonable chance Yosarian2's the Godfather (should one exist),

AND

that Yosarian2 is one of the people that should be lynched by the end of the game because it's unlikely he's town, we should lynch him now. If not, we should lynch roflcopter.

(The benefit of lynching the Godfather if there's a traitor is that we end up with an extra kill in our control, either via the vig or via charter tree-stumping.)

I'm liking the Yosarian2 plan.

Vote: Yosarian2

.

Honestly, the only case I see against me is the "breadcrumb" which I have already explained. I could not get anything out of it as scum.

I'm not sure how you could assert that you'd have no benefit as scum to having the seeds of a fakeclaim planted.

[Thesp]

Thesp totally missed the point. A town flip on rofl resolves any question about yos - he's then confirmed town.

If they are both scum, as is likely, the order hardly matters. But if rofl townflips were in a much better position than if yos townflips.

Roflcopter's not going to townflip.

The order

does

matter if one is the godfather, though, if we lynch thatone first, we get an extra half-day against the scum, which affords us the chance to be able to vig again.

[Thesp]

The end to yesterday made me laugh.

[Thesp]

For the record, I am strongly opposed to any and all plans that involve lynching or vigging me. I do understand that my hesitation on the populartajo wagon doesn't garner me any town-points. (It clearly shouldn't make anyone guaranteed-scum, given at least one townie on the wagon, and from my point definitely at least two.) At the same time, I agree with VP Baltar re: Pooky still possibly being scum.

I'm not sure why VP Baltar is escaping attention as possible scum - he's no longer "cleared" by roflcopter. I am good with a zu_Faul lynch, though, for reasons listed by me and others in a myriad of places. I think VP Baltar is the ideal vig candidate - I'm having a hard time imagining that in the given D2 lynch voting:

Xylthixlm

: 8 (charter, elvis_knits, PookyTheMagicalBear,

populartajo

,

roflcopter

, VP Baltar,

Yosarian2

, zu_Faul)
VP Baltar: 6 (ekiM,

iamausername

,

Ojanen

,

SerialClergyman

, Thesp,

Xylthixlm

)
ekiM: 1 (

Kmd4390

)

...where the known scum are all on Xylthixlm (along with current top suspect zU_Faul and other suspicious folk) isn't worth considering, particularly if we're using the Pooky v. roflcopter lynch as a useful belwether (which I think is worthwhile).

I think kmd4390 should vig somone if he thinks charter isn't a good lynch at some point (tomorrow, should we lynch town today), based on the numbers. Otherwise, he should probably pocket it. (Though ekiM also plays with the numbers some. Hmm.)

Yeah, just did the numbers. We have seven players now.

We have eight players now.

[Thesp]

For the record, I am strongly opposed to any and all plans that involve lynching or vigging me.

lol, I am shocked.

I know, who'd've thunk it?

[Thesp]

Good, then.

Vote: zu_Faul.

[Thesp]

Working on a big post now - give me an hour or so, por favor. ¡Gracias!

[Thesp]

Still working.

[Thesp]

Whoa whoa whoa. Two votes this quickly for me today? Wow. I don't understand it (though I have some mild appreciation of elvis_knits's thought on zu_Faul trying to "clear" me earlier in the game and for my vote on Pooky over roflcopter), but I think there are far greater issues to be addressed. I'm blessed with some time this morning, so I might as well make the most of it. My posted analysis only covers confirmed dead scum and living players - I've made mental notes of interactions with dead town, but find it less useful than the rest which I've posted.

---

Data on Known Scum

==================

Data on Yosarian2:

------------------
Yosarian2 makes very few comments about anyone who is still alive in the game at this point, save elvis_knits whom he "believes" is town. When the VP Baltar v. Xylthixlm wagon comes to debate, he says,

All in all, I could see lynching VP today. He wouldn't be my first choice, or my second, but his play in general looks pretty weak to me.

Then he spends many of his subsequent posts saying nothing about VP Baltar, and attacking Xylthixlm hard. When he discusses VP Baltar again, he says he'd be okay to lynch, but reaffirms it's not his first choice, and mildly affirms elvis_knits's hesitation at the speed of the wagon.

The next day, he later addresses the (small) return to VP baltar as such:

I thought VP Baltar was scummy yesterday, but I'm really uncomfortable with the line of reasoning people are using. They're basically one of the below:

1. "There are two people who were attacking him yesterday who we now know are pro-town!" Translation: the scum killed someone last night who was attacking VP Balter yesterday, except no one seems to want to put it that way, I guess because if they did then it would be obvious that it was a weak WIFOM argument.

2. "A goon cop was voting him!" Do you really think she had a guilty on him? It seems pretty clear to me that she didn't, reading her posts. She didn't "waffle" on her initial vote, she came out hard against eikM and stayed there for a long time.

That being said, I'm really not happy with VP's level of contribution this game; he hasn't been lurking, but he hasn't really been scumhunting much either. VP, who do you think is scum, and why?

Again, simultaneously defending and weakly attacking - he does this again answering SerialClergyman:

No, VP's vanilla claim makes lynching him a lower risk, just like it did with bab. One difference, though, that now that we're down to 13 people with only 4 or 5 scum, it has become pretty crucial to lynch scum today; there is no longer such a thing as a safe lynch in this game.

Later on, he attacks Pooky hard (when populartajo is being run up), but no other options are available.

---

Data on roflcopter:

-------------------
I find his D2 interesting, where he dropped his "hints". The Yosarian2 slips have popped up, but he says some interesting things about VP Baltar as well:

more serialclergyman votes please. vp baltar should come back to the wagon. yos2 should join us as well.

rofl, if I flipped town, would you eat your hat?

no but i might eat baltar's

:!::!:

I really don't like the baltar wagon. serialclergyman had a serious case of having his cake and eating it too in posts 772-773. joining the baltar wagon, and the turning around and slinging mud at ekim for

joining the baltar wagon

? i don't think there's a more obvious way to admit that you know the wagon you're on is bullshit.

These comments look to me like he's setting himself up for possibly claiming to have investigated VP Baltar

or

Yosarian2, then he gets pushed on his Yosarian2 comments, and commits that direction (returning to VP Baltar's "investigation" the next day).
roflcopter attacks few people that are still alive today, but has some choice words for me amidst the iamausername/roflcopter debate:

while i'm on a posting roll here tonight, let me just mention how sneaky-scummy thesp has been of late. still sitting on a baltar vote, making sure i claimed before username, and AGAIN with the vig directing. there wasn't even a second kill last night! why are you wasting time discussing what the vig should do?

Later weakly attacks Pooky while it's one away from a lynch (as a third favorite preference):

kmd is apparently town, so if there's going to be a non-username lynch my preference falls to serialclergyman. or pooky, who does not inspire confidence with his outbursts.

In fact, the Pookywagon was like this at the time with 7 to lynch: PookyTheMagicalBear: 6 (charter, elvis_knits,

iamausername

, Thesp, VP Baltar,

zu_Faul

)
There are 4 uncertains on the wagon, only one of which could be scum, meaning of the 6 people on the Pookywagon at L-1,

4-5 of them were town

.
In fact, the read from page 64 or 65 onward about the unfolding of D3's lynch is interesting indeed.
roflcopter claims to have investigated me on D4 as scum - make of that what you will.

---

Data on populartajo:

--------------------
D1 is uninteresting.
Here's his post on the VP Baltar wagon after it died down:

Liking the Ojanen baltar case. Ojanen points are strong and baltars responses (to iam also) are lacking. Disliking Baltar more and more as he answers. (I totally dislike excuses as I need sleep, my memory doesnt work) If fast, the wagon feels decent except for thesp and xyl. Fishy L-1.

Attacks people on wagon as much as he attacks VP, including later in this post:

And I am most suspicious of ekiM, xyl, iam, kmd, serial. Top three are pretty close in terms of order.

Elvis, so why did you vote Baltar?

Subsequent posts make little to no mention of VP Baltar, and heavily attack Xylthixlm, who would become the lynch du jour.
The next day, his "suspicions" of VP Baltar look an awful lot like a defense:

Third, the Baltar wagon has its merits but I think people are suspecting Baltar for the wrong reasons which makes me want to reread him, the case against him and decide the fate of this avenue. This day, some of the points against him are weak. For example, the impression I got from yesterday was that the Xyl wagon was not produced by a baltar wagon derailment. Xyl himself was the one who deactivated the wagon by a)trying to switch it to Yos and b)looking super scummy. Serial argument considering Xyltown must mean Baltarscum is something I also dislike.

All the people that voted Baltar over Xyl. Why was Baltar more scummy than Xyl? Why did you have a town read on Xyl?

Also attacks charter for doubting roflcopter:

WTF?

Rofl is town.

Big FOS : Charter and KMD.

It's this that pulls the hider claim from populartajo - it seems odd that charter-as-mafia-partner would ahve goaded him into it.
It's also notable that Ekim attacks populartajo heavily for his claim, and populartajo retaliates towards him. populartajo pushes hard on Pooky once the pressure shifts to himself.

---

Data on zu_Faul:

----------------
zu_Faul takes potshots at charter and Ekim early. He attacks elvis_knits then backs off later. There is, of course, the softclaim that everyone (myself included) except zu_Faul seems to think was an attempt to plant a Vanilla investigation of me:

I think Thesp is a good citizen.

In fact, when charter preses him later on this, he uses it as an excuse to attack charter.
He renews his push on Ekim. Later when VP Baltar gets his push on D2:

I don't have time right now, I had a guest over the weekend who stays until tonight. I only skimmed the VP arguments; look closer at them tonight.

...then the later promised post:

VP Baltar's wagon grew way too fast to not suspect some baleful influence (well, this is somewhat regardless of his alignment - scum would want to be on that wagon either way). The way he attacks ekiM somewhat clears VP for me (a bit like with serialclergyman). His somewhat random attacks on me don't look too much like scum either.

This is another instance where scum have used the "scum-driven quickwagon" fear that has proven entirely unfounded (as the whole wagon was pro-town, with the possible exception of one of {Ekim, elvis_knits, Thesp}). It seems like they're saying "Boo! Go away!" to me.
zu_Faul then tosses an attack at Pooky:

Pooky has done nothing to easy my suspicions. His argument against VP Baltar is: "Well, Goon Cop voted him." Also, he is trying to misinterpret KMD. It looks like he grabs whatever argument is conveniently lying around, regardless of its value, instead of actual scumhunting.

His later posts return to pushing hard on SerialClergyman and Ekim. When he does return to pushing for Pooky, it's always "Pooky or charter", until populartajo's claim. Then he pushes for Pooky, then backs off thinking roflcopter can clear him (!), then gets back on once populartajo is the alternative.
D4 he hops on roflcopter like the rest of the world and directs the vig after Pooky.

---

---

Data on Remaining Players

=========================

Data on charter:

----------------
Takes shots at zu_Faul on D1. On D2, he pushes the Xylthixlm wagon (believing he and I to be scum together), and has zu_Faul right under us. (He pushes Xylthixlm before the competing VP wagon, then sticks with his push when the VP wagon arises.) He does attack Xylthixlm harder for this:

This statement makes no sense and is scummy to boot. Why do you have to swoop down for a quickhammer? How are Yos and VP scumbuddies at all?

(This in response to Xylthixlm's assertion that Yosarian2 is scum as well.)
charter pushes early for populartajo on D3:

Vote tajo
I think kmd/tajo are scum. Tajo has escaped all scrutiny but does not look his normal town self, at all. I will try and elaborate later.

Am not.

What do you think of tajo then? Town or scum?

Later, this:

Fine
unvote, vote Roflcopter

I'm pretty much lost in this game, I really don't know if it's one of rofl/iaun, but it seems as if iaun isn't going to be lynched, and I don't really think there's going to be that many vanillas left anyway.

@Thesp, no, I'm not convinced at all.

...seems odd for scum to do in this situation. He later pushes for Pooky and defends roflcopter. It's only later that he switches to populartajo with"

F*** it
unvote, vote tajo

...which pushes significantly towards the lynch and roflcopter/Yosarian's eventual demise. He also notes:

zu faul doesn't want to lynch tajo, which makes me like it more.

In reading charter, while I occasinally had disagreements with some of his reads, I'm having a hard time believing he would be scum with our confirmed scums - his pushes are pretty darn big hits against scum, and go against the seeming scum MO this game of "ignore each other and/or assert each other as town".

---

Data on Ekim:

-------------
Notes zu_Faul repeatedly on D1. Has little on deadscum until much later.
Pushes early against roflcopter after imausername softclaims. He later calls out Pooky & populartajo on being "criminally absent for most of the game" amidst the claims sorting, before the real wagons of the day start up. When populartajo claims, Ekim hounds him pretty doggedly.

I don't think Ekim is scum.

---

Data on elvis_knits:

--------------------
Early on, has zu_faul in "Neutral/Doubts", populartajo in "Neutral/lean town", and roflcopter and Yosarian2 in "Town". She presses zu_Faul for info on his approach early, and seems to push him up her scum-meter in talks with roflcopter. She certainly reaffirms this when I ask her about zu_Faul on D1.
D2 he drops off her list in favor of others, her next list shows 1 scum in "Neutral", 3 in "Town".
Later she calls out Yosarian2:

Yeah, why is Yos beating a dead horse over kmd business and ignoring the VP Baltar drama?

Yeah, this is the first time I've really felt that Yos was acting scummy. Continuing to latch onto the kmd stuff is pretty pointless. There comes a time when both people have said everything they can on the matter. Yos can still think KMD is scum, but continuing to argue about it is sort of pointless. And doing something pointless instead of commenting on some dramatic events looks like he's purposely staying out of it and hoping that either the lynch will go through before he has to commit, or that he can come in later after the town has decided and blend in with what the majority are saying.

I do not like Yos piling on here. He admits himself that this is not a reliable scum tell but is using it as a point against VP. Contradiction much?

Later seems to go back on this (?):

Well, I hear Yos is town, so... wtf.

In her next list, she has

all four scum

in her "Town" list. (?)
When iamausername requests a claim of roflcopter, this is her thoughts to him:

I also don't see why you need to keep it a secret if you have a guilty on him before he claims. If he's scum, he's scum. If you just want to watch him fake claim for fun... I don't see the point in that. It's just holding us up at this point.

She also defends against a roflcopter lynch:

I guess you're right. I just am having a hard time choosing. I guess the right choice is to lynch rofl, but I think he's town. Therein lies my problem.

She then waffles back on the thought of roflcopter being scum:

I guess when I think through all the possibilities, it is most likely that rofl is scum gambitting to save buddy yos. And they're likely lovers. Or yos is lovers with someone else and rofl took the chance to save scum lovers. Otherwise it doesn't make sense for rofl to put his neck out there.

I am still slightly resistant to that idea because I <3 rofl and I haven't thought he was scum all game. But if he flips town, then we have two confirmed innocents in yos and VP. And if he flips scum then we may get a lover suicide in Yos, or we lynch yos tomorrow and we get whoever his lover is to suicide. Because if rofl is scum, Yos probably is too. No other reason for rofl to gambit like that.

I seriously am contemplating lynching someone outside of the iam/rofl problem because I do think it's possible that they're both town and iamausername was blocked. But it's probably smarter to go with an rofl lynch because there is a lot for us to gain either way: dead scum/scum lovers, or two confirmed innocents.

To her credit, she then pushes

hard

on roflcopter here (half an hour later!):

OMG

I just had a seriously awesome revelation (if I do say so myself).

Rofl was all about the bridges lynch, even after he claimed vanilla. Which made sense to me at the time... I agreed. But if his role has the specific ability to detect vanilla, don't you think he would have wanted to check bridges instead? Or possibly wavered since he knew he had the specific ability to prove bridges right or wrong?

ROFL: Why did you favor lynching vanilla bridges if you have the ability to check vanilla status?

She also notes this on Yosarian2, who jumps to the top of her list:

I really really want to know what Yos is going to say about whether or not he thought rofl was a PR after yesterday.

(Notably, if she

is

scum with roflcopter/Yosarian2, then at this point she's clearly made the decision to bus both, and her repeated assertions about mafialovers makes more sense.) She then continues to push on charter. She does move from the Pookywagon to the Tajowagon. She also calls out zu_Faul during the populartajo lynch - if she's scum, she's going full force-bussing here after paying somewhat little attention to most of them over the course of the game.

I came into this analysis presuming I'd find elvis_knits to be obviously pro-town, as everyone else has. I'm not as convinced.

---

Data on alexhans/PookyTheMagicalBear:

-------------------------------------
alexhans is a wasteland of crap and non-usefulness. No serious contribution towards any scum.
Pooky has these "interesting" posts:

hmm

unvote

tajo totally scumbag

done.

lawls

xyl so scum

vote xyl

wait i just reread tajo's pos.


"Im preparing a big post for tonight with wagon analysis and such. I think I have a decent idea of at least two scum with how things went out yesterday.

In the meanwhile Ill contribute with the Pookyhate. Post or perish. "

that got me giggling a little.

So all three players voting me either have solid scumreads on TWO other players or a decent idea, but are choosing to hatevote a noncontributor without even explaining what they want me to contribute?

i believe rofl over iam.

I would lynch Iam today and rofl if Iam flips town.

I believe rofl over iam because iam feels fishy to me and I think he basically bungled a counterclaim. Plus rofl just feels townish to me. plus I don't like how he decided to play his jailkeeper role tho that could be just personal preference.

And this when the populartajo wagon is near completion:

this game really sucks

cuz i think tajo is town

but I KNOW i am town.

=/

...then later only when pressed on it:

unvote
vote tajo

im really innocent.

really!

I don't think anyone would realistically say they've thought Pooky's participation has been pro-town. He's also been consistently wrong on his reads, and favored confirmed town as scum.

---

Data on VP Baltar:

------------------
Nothing interesting D1 (save his vote on B&B at the end of the day, which still reeks to me). On D2, he attacks iamausername significantly then also says:

ekiM and zu_faul are also acceptable lynches. I might back a Yos lynch based on his seeming switch in stance on the Kmd/EK thing, but I can't really speak to all the meta business since I've never played with him.

He doesn't revisit zu_Faul or Yosarian2 for some time later, though does press Ekim. Later when Yosarian2 and Xylthixlm have a back-and-forth (and while VP is at a large wagon), VP says this (preemptively?):

Out of the Yos and Xyl in the last pages, I find myself agreeing with Yos more (here come the buddying accusations).

He also continues to hammer away at Xyl and Ekim, ignoring zu_Faul and Yosarian2. When the IAAUN/roflcopter debate arises, he's firmly pro-roflcopter:

I also disagree with the logic that IAAUN scum would never claim like he did. If he believed rofl was a real PR, then why not try and get him, especially if he believed he was some sort of investigator.
...
If I had to pick one of their lynches it would be iam for the Yos push and I'm more inclined to believe rofl based on my own role (though, again, that could have been easily manufactured given I had already claimed).

He's voting for Pooky near the end of D3, then pushes the No Lynch option as an alternative to a populartajo lynch. When pressed by charter, he says:

However, I think you may be right, and you're one of the few people I've consistently seen as town this game, so I'm more inclined to follow you.

Vote: tajo

It looks like he's trying to garner favor with charter here.

While he's on the populartajo wagon

, he pushes the Pookywagon and dissuades the tajo wagon:

I fully admit that I'm unsure about it and any lynch on you is mostly because I think charter and EK have made some good points.

That being said, I'm unsure about Pooky as well. Yes, he doesn't have much that points to him being town in this game, but isn't his meta to play like that? I've never played with him before, but that was the impression I was under.

This doesn't look like someone who wants the tajo lynch. He later unvotes from the wagon, and when he returns to it, he pushes for Pooky as preferable:

I'm going to bed now. I think I should be up before deadline tomorrow, but just in case. Vote: tajo (again). If it gets down to deadline though and no one seems to be showing up to save the day, I would also switch to pooky. Anyhow, night.

This quote also bothers me after the bodyguard has died:

And ftr, I'm fine with being vigged. Honestly, my bad play early on has made me waaaay too scummy to be useful. Obviously, it is best to vig scum, but if I am going to be a hinderance in an endgame scenario I'd rather be dead.

If VP Baltar is a roleblocker (unlikely?) or a NK-Immune GF, he has zero risk from this possibility.

---

It should be clear by this point that I think VP Baltar is the most likely to be scum. I also think there are compelling reasons to think that either PookyTheMagicalBear or elvis_knits are scum (with the former being more likely than the latter), and it's extremely unlikely that charter of Ekim are scum. (Unfortunately, our only two roles left.)

I'd appreciate it if those considering voting for me were to go back and review my posts, and see if you think I'm still most likely to be scum. I also think examining the VP Baltar/Xylthixlm wagons are worthwhile. I also think it's absolutely worth revisiting whether or not Ojanen got a guilty result on VP Baltar:

Doing a re-read on ojanen now. Re-reading her, I doubt she investigated either eikM or VP; early in day 2 she voted eikM, and didn't mention VP, and later in day 2 she voted VP and didn't mention eikM.

i don't think there's any chance that ojanen investigated baltar

I got a feeling Baltar is not the way to go. I doubt he was investigated by Ojanen. She did not even mention him until others voiced their suspicions of him.

3 scum were quick to point out that they didn't think Ojanen had a result. I think this was deliberate discreditation - on D2, Ojanen opens with:

I'm going for Mike for now.

vote: ekiM

She makes some posts answering Ekim, then later reverses position and

agrees

with Ekim. Her next post is a

sua sponte

addressing of VP Baltar, which she never lets up on. This, combined with how quickly our scum were to denounce a possible read on VP Baltar, is hard for me to gloss over. Couple this with his stances throughout the game and how the wagon on Xylthixlm over him went down, I cannot do anything but

Vote: VP Baltar.

Also, if we lynch me or some other town, and there is a tomorrow, the correct play is to force charter to stump, then lynch Ekim and have him kill one of the two players left (provided the rules allow that and won't grant a scum win at that point - we should check with the mod first on that - and we should make sure a Vengeful Townie is not roleblockable/gets past NK Immunity of the GF, which looks like it would be, but we should make sure).

I've got company coming in any moment, but I should be able to check tonight if you have any questions or thoughts for me.

[Thesp]

Well thesp, I appreciate the effort you have finally put into this game when your ass is numero uno on the chopping block.

I'm not sure that's a fair accusation - I had some time I could contribute, so I did.

Doesn't look like it matters - I've been lynched. Good luck town. Get VP Baltar, and look at my end-day analysis re: Ekim & charter.

[Thesp]

Crap. I was faking the presumed lynch - I'm not sure what else I could say when people seem to have it lockstep that I'm scum. I did have answers to your questions, but I'm not sure they would have helped. I'm still town, though - please look back at what I said. I'm only sad we'll have the chance at only one of Pooky/VP Baltar, but I'm still most sure about VP Baltar.

Good luck.

[Thesp]

Sorry I was wrong about tajo - I was convinced by the manner in which he "came forth" as hider - it looked genuine to me.

[Thesp]

Are you serious? Please tell me you're just being a thespian now.

Totally serious.

Seriously - go look at VP Baltar tomorrow.

HARD.

[Thesp]

I'm glad to see that I was right about VP Baltar. I'm even more glad that the town made the right choice at the end and won. Sorry I was wrong about populartajo and Pooky on that critical day, and glad it didn't cost us the game.

Good game, all. I would be more than happy to play with everyone again.