Mini 817: Chosen (Game Over!)

[Zorblag]

Enjoy what is hopefully a vacation Dry-fit. Before you go, how serious is your current don-johnson vote? I do hate what he's done but that doesn't mean that I think he's likely to be scum because of it.

don-johnson, you're voting for Herodotus. Do you think that he probably isn't the chosen at this point? If so, why not? If not, why are you voting him? Has your read of the rest of the game given you any new thoughts on me other than what you said earlier about noting my failure to vote for Nuwen by the end of page five? Why would you think that we wouldn't want to get your opinions on everyone on record before the lynch even if it was a given that Special Ed was the lynch for today? Also, it doesn't matter but the scum got to exclude 4 out of 7 players from being the chosen so really it's a random chance of any 3 rather than any 4 being the chosen if we're strictly looking at those numbers.

Special Ed, I still think that you're most likely to be lynched. I'm asking for you opinions over and over again because if you're town I'll know that your intentions at least were in the right place. I can judge your accuracy as the game goes along. I can't speak for the others in this game or in other games at the site but I do know that I'm playing to win. I don't care if I get lynched or not so long as my team wins. Right now I know that I'm town and I think that I could be the chosen so I will try to prevent my lynch but that's only because I think being lynched will hurt the town. I know that I'm wrong often enough not to care at this stage in the game whether we lynch my first choice (still MiteyMouse if it matters to anyone) or not.

Using the information that we're getting now in terms of how people are acting is absolutely part of playing the game. Down the road in this game in particular this exchange will reveal attacks that people are making that can be used when we're trying to figure out who the chosen is.

Papa Zito, what do you think of don-johnson so far? Any change on Herodotus based on the gambits that are being bandied about?

MiteyMouse, I'm not comfortable with your almost ambivalent stance on potential scum past Special Ed. Why does Papa Zito continue to make your list? Why am I now off it?

Herodotus, now that you've thought about it do you think that don_johnson is likely to be scum or town just based on his gambit. Do you have any reasons other than that to clear him or suspect him?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Papa Zito]

Papa Zito, what do you think of don-johnson so far? Any change on Herodotus based on the gambits that are being bandied about

Hero's gambit was fun. I wish I'd been online to participate.

Don seems like he won't help unless forced to. I'm not sure how to interpret this. I'll have to find past games of his so I can judge.

[MiteyMouse]

Sorry guys...not in the mafia mood tonight. I'll post some real stuff tomorrow.

[Herodotus]

Herodotus, now that you've thought about it do you think that don_johnson is likely to be scum or town just based on his gambit. Do you have any reasons other than that to clear him or suspect him?

I hadn't really thought it through at first. If he really believed that the chosen knew who they were, he would have to expect a counterclaim. Therefore, I'm inclined to accept that it is more likely that he was a townie looking for reactions than fakeclaiming scum.

Sorry, I wasn't clear in post 470. I was referring to Ed's response when I asked him whether he was the chosen. I want to know how Don feels about that response. I do not consider post 468 to be any indication of Ed's alignment.

[don_johnson]

just got home. wanted to leave my vote on herod for a bit to see if anyone jumped on.

unvote, vote special ed

his recent posts have a more ad hom approach(i.e. complaining about how we play on this site) and appeal to emotion. his lackidaisical response to my posting just seemed like scum waiting to see what happened before committing to either side. did anyone figure the odds of afatchic being the chosen? i don't think i am, but i think the actual clues point towards an ed/raivann pairing. if its not ed, i would certainly become more suspicious of those leading the town right now.

PZ: read all you want. i'm an idiot and people generally don't welcome me into their games.

[Special Ed]

just got home. wanted to leave my vote on herod for a bit to see if anyone jumped on.

unvote, vote special ed

his recent posts have a more ad hom approach(i.e. complaining about how we play on this site) and appeal to emotion. his lackidaisical response to my posting just seemed like scum waiting to see what happened before committing to either side. did anyone figure the odds of afatchic being the chosen? i don't think i am, but i think the actual clues point towards an ed/raivann pairing. if its not ed, i would certainly become more suspicious of those leading the town right now.

PZ: read all you want. i'm an idiot and people generally don't welcome me into their games.

It might be considered ad hominem or an appeal to emotion if I were using it to try to get votes off of me.

However, I was using it because you guys were playing obvious gambits and think you were really clever. It

was

amusing.

Do you really think I was waiting to see how it played out before committing to a side? There were no sides. Everyone was pretending to be tricksy.

I realize I'm the likely lynch candidate. And I realize the reasons. There's a lot that I can't do anything about because I have no idea why the person I subbed for acted the way they did. It didn't make sense.

I've logically refuted the arguments that have been presented against me and my play as best as I could. Like the ones you've presented.

I think from everyone else's perspective I am the likeliest lynch target. I could argue against it using a wide variety of logical fallacies that I'd read about in some wiki somewhere, but that would be arguing against logic.

Btw, honestly an ad hominem argument isn't always bad. It would be listed as a fallacy in logic books, but real life (and online mafia) are not played in a logic book. They are played in real life, where one must question the ability, motivation, and accuracy of those presenting arguments.

But, regardless, just because I insulted someone's sensiblities doesn't mean I was arguing. I was only observing

[don_johnson]

now you are just being fatalistic.

you are not scumhunting. porque?

[Herodotus]

Let's find out why.

Everyone has had a chance to say whatever they wanted. I think the issue with the claim is more likely muddying the waters than helping, but we can revisit it if there is a tomorrow.

vote: Ed

[Papa Zito]

So Ed, did we get it right?

[Special Ed]

nope, sorry. But we can wait and see if I was the chosen.

[hohum]

Cuenta Final del Voto:

Special Ed(4): Papa Zito, MiteyMouse, don_johnson, Herodotus

MiteyMouse(2): Zorblag, Special Ed
don_johnson(1): Dry-fit

No Votando:

Con siete vivos, toma cuatro para linchar.

[hohum]

As the town gathered around to discuss the previous day and night's events, accusations started flying. It was soon clear that one amongst you would take the fall for the shootings which occurred through the night.

"Someone MUST be sacrificed to the gods for this" shouted one from the crowd. "Throw Special Ed into the volcano!" the voice persisted.

So the town complied. They tied ed to a rock (as if he could swim in lava) and tossed him in.

Special Ed,

Vanilla Townie

, Lynched, Day 2

[hohum]

The town once again awoke to find one less citizen remaining. Frantically the group went from house to house only to discover the mangled and beaten corpse of Papa Zito, who had clearly been bludgeoned to death.

Papa Zito,

Vanilla Townie

, Killed, N2

Day 3 dawns. Good luck!

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

[Zorblag]

OK, before I do anything else, Herodotus, what did OERDYYDOEE stand for?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Herodotus]

OK, before I do anything else, Herodotus, what did OERDYYDOEE stand for?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

"to see whether you'd truly only read to page five"
Last letters of each word, instead of first.

[MiteyMouse]

I did a quick look at Papa's posts and they really finger me and Don...mostly me... I'm not Scum so it might be a frame up on either myself or Don.

I have to say though that I'm a bit surprised at it being Papa that was Night killed.

[Herodotus]

I expect Papa was killed more because he was obvtown than because of his opinions. Same for TDC.
The scum's conceptions of our beliefs about who is likely to be the chosen probably also had some weight. Most people considered them both unlikely to be the chosen, iirc. I remember thinking the scum would probably pick off the people who were "safe [vanilla] lynches."

[Zorblag]

If Papa Zito hadn't been killed last night it would have been time to start asking why he was still alive. No one was seriously attacking him other than perhaps MiteyMouse and he was a very good candidate for exclusion; both of those made him unlikely to be the chosen. He was an engaged player which the town will need as the game comes down to the end.

His death is also interesting so far as MiteyMouse goes. He and Special Ed (both now dead and known townies) were the only ones that seemed to be with me in advocating a MiteyMouse lynch yesterday. I know that I'm town so that means that the scum had a fairly easy target to go for in MiteyMouse yesterday who they could probably get lynched without looking too suspicious. If MiteyMouse was the chosen they really should have been doing that. The one exception would be if afatchic/don_johnson is the remaining scum he would have had reason to hold back from the MiteyMouse push as afatchic wasn't really around during the early part of the day and by the time don_johnson got here Special Ed was almost certainly going to be lynched anyhow.

don_johnson, one your last comments was that we should look to those today who were leading the town if Special Ed didn't come up scum. Who did you have in mind with that?

Dry-fit, it's been a while. I'd like to get your reactions to what has happened lately.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[don_johnson]

you and herod are more suspicious now, similar to how you are stating you would feel about pz if he was still here. fortunately, perhaps, miteymouse should most certainly be scrutinized at this point. explain why scumdj would hold back from the miteymouse lynch yesterday? i was obviously willing to make some waves and by doing so incurred suspicion upon myself. if scumdj knew miteymouse was the chosen, what benefit would i have had to do what i did instead of steering the lynch to someone, who by all accounts, could easily have been lynched in ed's place. the selling point to me for ed's lynch was his somewhat monotone reaction to the "gambits" run at day's end. i would have thought a townie would have fought harder considering anyone of us could be the chosen.

also, dry-fit's vote on me was a bit suspicious as well, only because it was a super easily explained vote. good cover for scum.

[Zorblag]

MiteyMouse, here's a fairly important question (well, the follow up probably is depending on how you answer this.) Thinking about everything that you know about what's been said how likely do you think it is that you're the chosen if don_johnson and I are both town?

explain why scumdj would hold back from the miteymouse lynch yesterday? i was obviously willing to make some waves and by doing so incurred suspicion upon myself. if scumdj knew miteymouse was the chosen, what benefit would i have had to do what i did instead of steering the lynch to someone, who by all accounts, could easily have been lynched in ed's place.

You made waves when you came in and established yourself as a player who's willing to get into it with people. I've played games with you so I knew that was true anyhow but you didn't really take any big risks by doing it. If you're scum, something that would have looked terrible for you today would be if you pushed for a change when we were at the doorstep of voting Special Ed (and we really were, both Herodotus and I were willing to hammer before you arrived even if he's the one that came out and said it explicitly while I was only giving tacit support for the lynch) to someone else who turned out to be the chosen one. As scum it would be a much better play to let yesterday unfold how it did and then try to ride my convictions as well as those of Papa Zito and Special Ed,two dead townies who were on record yesterday saying that MiteyMouse was one of their top suspects, to an easy chosen lynch that doesn't implicate you nearly as much.

you and herod are more suspicious now, similar to how you are stating you would feel about pz if he was still here. fortunately, perhaps, miteymouse should most certainly be scrutinized at this point.

How likely do you think Herodotus was to have been killed last night? How likely do you think I was to have been killed last night? I think the answers to those two questions should be different but I'd like to see what you come up with.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[don_johnson]

do you think mitey is likely to be the chosen? i.e. your theory only applies if i am scum and mitey is the chosen.

why would the answers be different? you both seem to be pretty popular here in this thread. i.e. people are in general agreement that you are both town. players who are not nightkilled are either scum, lucky, or the chosen. i am surprised that neither of you is dead which bolsters the idea that one of you may be the chosen, but also that one of you may be scum. there is most likely only one mafia left. losing the chosen doesn't end the game. chosen was much more valuable with the scumteam intact. at this point we should have two mislynches before town loss, no?

speaking of: should we consider the idea of a 3 person scumteam? not sure how that would counterbalance the chosen mechanic, but common sense tells me 2 scum, 1 left.

[Zorblag]

do you think mitey is likely to be the chosen? i.e. your theory only applies if i am scum and mitey is the chosen.

First off, that was exactly the context in which I brought it up. You asked how it would benefit you as scum and are responding to my answer. Here was the original comment from me:

If MiteyMouse was the chosen they really should have been doing that. The one exception would be if afatchic/don_johnson is the remaining scum he would have had reason to hold back from the MiteyMouse push as afatchic wasn't really around during the early part of the day and by the time don_johnson got here Special Ed was almost certainly going to be lynched anyhow.

Second, I think that you should know my thoughts on whether or not MiteyMouse is the chosen at this point if you've read the game. I'll answer in a bit but I'd like to know who you think I think are likely to be the chosen at this time (or even as recently as yesterday.)

chosen was much more valuable with the scumteam intact.

Why would you think that?

speaking of: should we consider the idea of a 3 person scumteam? not sure how that would counterbalance the chosen mechanic, but common sense tells me 2 scum, 1 left.

When I was first joining the game as a replacement I read through the rules and just assumed that there would probably be three scum to balance out the chosen dynamic. The reason I decided that this almost certainly wasn't the case was that when hohum was advertising the game he said it was going to be just like the one incognito was running with one (minor?) change. My interpretation was that the change was that self votes now counted as double votes.

@ everyone else, I wonder if you wouldn't mind answering the question I asked of don_johnson. His answer is interesting to me and I'd like to see what others have to say so I've got something to compare it to.

How likely do you think Herodotus was to have been killed last night? How likely do you think I was to have been killed last night? I think the answers to those two questions should be different but I'd like to see what you come up with.

why would the answers be different? you both seem to be pretty popular here in this thread. i.e. people are in general agreement that you are both town. players who are not nightkilled are either scum, lucky, or the chosen. i am surprised that neither of you is dead which bolsters the idea that one of you may be the chosen, but also that one of you may be scum

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MiteyMouse]

MiteyMouse, here's a fairly important question (well, the follow up probably is depending on how you answer this.) Thinking about everything that you know about what's been said how likely do you think it is that you're the chosen if don_johnson and I are both town?

The thought never actually occurred to me Zorblag. I was on 6 people's exclude list so, I thought that it was pretty far out of the range of possibility for me to be. It is possible I guess...though, I have been pretty high on the suspicion list throughout the game. They could have had an easy lynch with me at most points in the game. Now, that being said, it might explain why Blood Covenent was going after me so hard on Day 1.

I'm going to have to think about this some more...

[Herodotus]

@ everyone else, I wonder if you wouldn't mind answering the question I asked of don_johnson. His answer is interesting to me and I'd like to see what others have to say so I've got something to compare it to.

How likely do you think Herodotus was to have been killed last night? How likely do you think I was to have been killed last night? I think the answers to those two questions should be different but I'd like to see what you come up with.

I think that if neither Zorblag nor I is the chosen, but we're both town, then the scum would want us to believe that one of us is the chosen. Either way, at least one of us would still be alive.

[MiteyMouse]

Zorblag...If I was Scum, you ass would have been gone Night 1...hehehe!

I don't think that Hero would be a likely target even if he is the chosen. I think that most us us think that he is probably the chosen right now so, he is a good person to keep around as, we won't be likely to lynch him.