The more I think about the game, the more unsure about my reads I get.
Lately I've been thinking mostly about voting vollkan or Sensfan.
I'm having trouble distinguishing if SensFan's play has been only somewhat poor or legitimately scummy, but I'm starting to lean his way.
A snippet I haven't mentioned that I had in my notes regarding him, btw:
SensFan 506 wrote:
scotmany12 wrote:
TDC wrote:scotmany: Now that everything's revealed, mind sharing why you chose which group to do what?
Out of the six of them, I trusted Yos and Adel the most. Out of everyone, I trusted Yos the most to make a good decision with the busdriver. I'm glad that tracker ended up with Adel, because regardless of my suspicion of Sens, I'd rather him have the investigative role than Sens.
Don't you think SensScum would have grabbed the Tracker ability?
I thought bringing up this alibi out of the blue was an insincere feeling thing to say.
Anyway, with the untruths with the quicktopic and argumentational reaching re: FL and unwilliness to elaborate on case and lurking,
vollkan wrote:I haven't been able to see a clear rationale for suspecting Yos or MSH
What is it in OGML and CKD's arguments that fails to sway you?
[i]Hey Guido, it's all so clear to me now. I'm the keeper of the cheese and you're the lemon merchant, you get it? And he knows it. That's why he's gonna kill us. So we got to beat it, ya, before he lets loose the marmosets on us.[/i]
scotmany wrote:I don't like Michel's vote on Ren at all. He simply pulls out a lot of calculations and assumptions, none of which are concrete.
Have you understood my reasoning? If you did, I would really like to know what part you don't consider concrete. I have explained each calculation and each assumption.
You made that post with an agenda in mind. No matter what, you were going to vote Ren at the end of your post. You pulled a bunch of contrived calculations out of your ass and made a shitload of assumptions, none of which can be considered concrete. Mafia isn't about calculations. You aren't scumhunting with that post. It is clear that no matter what happened in that post you were going to vote Ren, you had that agenda in mind.
Yosarian2 wrote:Well, no; actions are pro-town they help the town. If changing your mind suddenly dosn't at all hurt the town (and it dosn't), and if doing like that gets reactions that give the town tons of information, then it is pro-town.
The end result of Adel's action may have had pro-town consequences, but that doesn't mean it was a pro-town action. What matters is Adel's reasoning for doing the action. Your argument is "It generated tons of good information and discussion, thus it was pro-town, thus the person who did it is pro-town." That's a faulty conclusion. What matters is "Did Adel do this for a pro-town purpose?" All that matters is why people do what they do, not the end result. Someone could propose a completely anti-town plan, but if they do it legitimately believing it will help the town, then it's a faulty argument to say "your plan failed, thus you are scum."
You are attributing motives to Adel that we have no way of knowing, and that seem frankly unlikely, in order to call him pro-town. It's far more likely that he voted SensFan out of frustration at Sens or because he wanted to go for the other wagon as he's going down, whatever, than that he had some sort of plan in the midst of his rage to generate information for the town.
Scotmany wrote:Everyone needs to chime in now and say if they think it was obvious that I was going to give Goat-Yos Bulletproof/Tracker.
It seemed the most logical choice to me.
Ren Hoek wrote:He has been posting elsewhere on a REGULAR BASIS, right? Why assume that he has not read all of 6 pages with massive posts? Is that what he told you in the QT? That he hasn't read the last 6 pages?
No, he didn't tell me that. I assumed because I find it very bad taste to read the thread and not post. Being intentionally inactive is behaviour that is, in my opinion, unacceptable. Therefore, if you don't post, I'll assume that you haven't looked at the thread at all.
Now that I'm answering your question though, you can answer the question you ignored before. Can you please explain why you selfvoted, or give the postnumber where you explained that?
Budja wrote:I also disagree with MichelSableheart's maths post. I also can't see scum wading through a lot of probability before making their kill. We certainly have no reason to call their play optimal given that the targeted scot rather than attempting a reverse busdrive.
Again, I don't expect the scum to wade through probability before making the kill. I personally waded through probability to be able to better evaluate the different possibilities. I think it's likely that scum reasoning was more like "the busdriver can protect either scot or FaerieLord, scot is more important, and therefore more likely to be protected." without actual percentages.
----
Either I completely fail at making myself understood, I completely fail at understanding the precise arguments against my post, other players don't understand that by using math I can compare exact numbers rather then having to go by vague wordings, or the other players don't understand that assumptions are necessary to formally investigate multiple possibilities.
Anyway, I'm going to try to rewrite that post, this time around without the many difficult concepts. See my upcoming post.
This post will not analyse things as thorougly as the previous one, as I won't be using the exact numbers to make comparisons.
Goatrevolt is either town or scum. I'm going to look at the possibility that Goatrevolt is town first, as most players seem to believe that is the case. Later on in this post, I'll look at the possibility that Goatrevolt is scum.
If Goatrevolt is town, the kill of Scotmany is a strange action for scum to make. I'm going to look at each player in turn to see if that kill is logical if they are scum.
It is extremely unlikely that Scotmany scum would take the risk that the busdriver protects FaerieLord. As scum, he would be in too good a position to put his life at stake in that way.
If the busdriver protects FaerieLord, killing Scotmany would be extremely good for crywolf if she is scum. It would result in the dead of the most important powerrole, and it would guarantee an immediate lynch or Ren Hoek. However, when she attempts to kill scotmany, she takes 3 serious risks. First of all, the kill can be redirected to herself, which would mean killing a mafia member. Secondly, the kill can be redirected to Ren Hoek, which would mean the most likely lynch target would die rather then be lynched. Or the kill could be redirected to Seraphim, where it wouldn't accomplish much at all. It is very likely that the kill will be redirected, and the most likely redirection targets are bad kill targets for scum. There are better possibilities for scum available. For example, they could try to kill Seraphim in the hope of being driven back to Scot or FaerieLord. This doesn't run the risk of killing scum or Ren Hoek. Or they could try to kill FaerieLord, who is much less likely to be protected by the busdriver. The chance of killing a powerrole would be much higher (though the powerrole would be comparable weaker), and the chance of bad redirections decreases enormously. Because of the existance of better kill targets, killing Scotmany doesn't make much sense for Crywolf.
For CKD and Nuwen, the reasoning is exactly the same as for Crywolf. For neither of them does it make much sense to try and kill Scotmany.
For vollkan, killing Scotmany makes slightly more sense. After all, he doesn't really run the risk of seeing the kill redirected to himself. However, seeing the kill redirected to Ren Hoek would be horrible. Again, it makes more sense to try to kill faerielord because of the lower chance of busdriver protection, or to kill one of the account executives who isn't on the Ren Hoek wagon, in the hope of being redirected to a powerrole. Trying to kill scotmany is a strange choice.
For all players other then Ren Hoek, an argument can be made comparable to vollkan's. For none of them does killing Scotmany make much sense.
However, if Ren Hoek is scum, the situation changes drastically. Ren Hoek could reasonably expect to be lynched eventually, whereas a quicklynch was unlikely. After selfvoting to L-1, he could expect to still be alive when the kill would resolve. This means that if the kill was redirected to Seraphim, he could point out that he was at L-1, at the risk of being lynched if the kill succeeded, and only be alive through a lucky busdrive. This would probably prevent his lynch for the next couple of days, a great result for him. A different possibility that could happen is that the busdriver protected FaerieLord. This would mean that the town loses it's most important member, and that the day ends in a lynch of Ren Hoek now, with the last vote being a selfvote, rather then ending in a lynch of Ren Hoek after about 10 more RL days of information about who wanted to see scum Ren lynched. That result would still be good for scum. Of course, there is the possibility that Ren Hoek dies, giving the town the chance to try to lynch a second scum. That would be extremely bad for scum. The chance of that happening is comparable to the chance of Seraphim getting killed, which is an extremely good scenario for scum. Of course, the kill can also be redirected to someone else, but this either means that the day ends in a lynch now, or it means that Ren Hoek can play the "lucky safe through busdrive" card. Overall, killing Scotmany is likely to have a good result for scum if Ren Hoek is one of them. All other kill choices are worse for the scum, as they aren't as likely to kill scotmany (the chance of hitting the correct busdrive target aren't that great), and they can't safe Ren Hoek from being lynched.
Overall, if Goatrevolt is town, then the kill of Scotmany makes the most sense if Ren Hoek is scum.
--------------------------------
What concerns me far more, however, is the possibility that Goatrevolt and Ren Hoek are scum together, and that they set up the kill to safe Ren Hoek from being lynched.
Ren Hoek was only safed from being lynched when the kill resolved because of the busdrive. However, 12 hours earlier, Ren Hoek was at L-3 and not at risk of being lynched as a result from the kill at all. At that point in time, Ren Hoek made post #301, making sure that SensFan voted him, then he selfvoted. The only reason why Ren Hoek was at risk of being lynched when the kill resolved was because of his own actions.
Here, I would like to point out Goatrevolt's post #312, which explicitly asks for a votecount, which would make it extremely clear that Ren Hoek is in danger of being lynched now.
Next, the kill resolves, safing Ren Hoek only because of a lucky busdrive... chosen by Goatrevolt and therefore known to the mafia if Goatrevolt is scum.
In the very first post he makes after the kill (#323), Ren Hoek babbles about how he believed to be at L-1, and how lucky he is that the mafia miscounted just like he did. This has two results. First of all, everybody becomes aware of the possibility that mafia tried to kill two birds with one stone (nightkill + Ren Hoek lynched), and secondly, it forces the other players to point out that Ren Hoek is only alive because Seraphim was voting for him. He brings two important points for proving him "confirmed innocent" to the attention of the town while making it seem like he doesn't have any idea what he's talking about.
So what is the very first post that Goatrevolt makes after the kill? #346, in which he mentions a strong reason to believe Ren Hoek to be town.
Ren Hoek is only seen as "confirmed pro-town" because Goatrevolt and Ren Hoek worked together perfectly to make it appear so. If Goatrevolt is scum, then Ren Hoek being scum with him would explain what happened perfectly.
---------------------------------
I have to conclude that:
If Goatrevolt is town, things make most sense if Ren Hoek is scum.
If Goatrevolt is scum, things make perfect sense if Ren Hoek is also scum.
Therefore, I believe it is highly likely that Ren Hoek is scum.
As you can imagine I was immensely frustrated as I felt that the scum was in control of the agenda and that the town was being oblivious or lead by the nose.
[i]Hey Guido, it's all so clear to me now. I'm the keeper of the cheese and you're the lemon merchant, you get it? And he knows it. That's why he's gonna kill us. So we got to beat it, ya, before he lets loose the marmosets on us.[/i]
Have you ever considered that the scum targeted scotmany, knowing that he'd be busdriven with a player that a townie might consider scummy? Have you considered that the scum might have made sure that all the main suspects were townies?
Have you considered that the scum may not be that clever, and made no calculations whatsoever, and simply felt safe enough that they wouldn't be a bus driving target?
[i]Hey Guido, it's all so clear to me now. I'm the keeper of the cheese and you're the lemon merchant, you get it? And he knows it. That's why he's gonna kill us. So we got to beat it, ya, before he lets loose the marmosets on us.[/i]
MichelSableheart wrote:I have to conclude that:
If Goatrevolt is town, things make most sense if Ren Hoek is scum.
If Goatrevolt is scum, things make perfect sense if Ren Hoek is also scum.
Therefore, I believe it is highly likely that Ren Hoek is scum.
Aren't you doing a lot of work to merely demonstrate that Goatrevolt's alignment is not diagnostic of mine, and you just plain think I'm scum regardless of Goatrevolt?
Someone help me here, I am no Socrates.
[i]Hey Guido, it's all so clear to me now. I'm the keeper of the cheese and you're the lemon merchant, you get it? And he knows it. That's why he's gonna kill us. So we got to beat it, ya, before he lets loose the marmosets on us.[/i]
Yosarian2 wrote:Well, no; actions are pro-town they help the town. If changing your mind suddenly dosn't at all hurt the town (and it dosn't), and if doing like that gets reactions that give the town tons of information, then it is pro-town.
The end result of Adel's action may have had pro-town consequences, but that doesn't mean it was a pro-town action. What matters is Adel's reasoning for doing the action. Your argument is "It generated tons of good information and discussion, thus it was pro-town, thus the person who did it is pro-town." That's a faulty conclusion. What matters is "Did Adel do this for a pro-town purpose?"
You are attributing motives to Adel that we have no way of knowing, and that seem frankly unlikely, in order to call him pro-town.
Actually, no, I'm not assuming motives at all. I'm just observing that Adel's action were pro-town, that is, they were much more helpful to the town then harmful. Motives are obviously unknowable at this point, especally with Adel gone, although based on his posts I don't think he had anti-town motives either.
It's far more likely that he voted SensFan out of frustration at Sens or because he wanted to go for the other wagon as he's going down, whatever, than that he had some sort of plan in the midst of his rage to generate information for the town.
Perhaps. But Volkan and others were claiming that changing your mind like this is somehow inherently scummy, wheras I tend to think it's inherently pro-town, it's something pro-town people should do.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
Yosarian2 wrote:Perhaps. But Volkan and others were claiming that changing your mind like this is somehow inherently scummy, wheras I tend to think it's inherently pro-town, it's something pro-town people should do.
I don't think it's inherently scummy, but I also disagree with your assertion that it's generally pro-town. It is entirely based on context.
In this situation, I agree with your conclusion. I think Adel is more likely to make that play as town than scum, simply because his complete reversal on Sens is just asking to be lynched as scum, whereas I could see a townie getting fed up with Sens inactivity and changing his mind in the heat of the moment.
The idea that frequently changing your mind is pro-town is one I really don't agree with at all, though. What matters is the reasons behind those swaps (or to look at it the other way, the reasons behind why someone
didn't
make a swap). There have been games as town where I have sat on the same person endlessly. There have been other games where I've swapped all over the place. Context.
------
Michel: The idea that Ren and I are scum together and somehow concocted this grandiose scheme is far-fetched. The number of hoops we would have had to jump through, and the number of possible ways for that scenario to go wrong make it extremely unlikely. Plus, to top it off, your theory doesn't really explain the self-vote. If the purpose was to save Ren, then Ren's vote on himself strictly serves counterproductive to the plan. Why would the two of us play it so tightly to the edge and give the chance for someone to hammer Ren in the meantime if our end goal involved Ren not being lynched? If the only possible answer you can come up with to that question is "to make it more believable, or to try to spice it up a bit" then I believe you can evaluate for yourself how implausible this notion is.
Your case against Ren still makes too many assumptions. You assume optimal play and don't take into account other factors. Maybe the scum had some reasons for the kill that we don't know? Maybe the scum simply thought it would be worth risking it to get rid of Scot? Trying to pinpoint the day 1 kill to Ren alone is flawed, much like the reasons to pinpoint the TDC kill to Yosarian. There are too many other possibilities to make an accurate call.
Hey Budja, have you answered my questions? Because I have more.
unvote, vote: Budja
[i]Hey Guido, it's all so clear to me now. I'm the keeper of the cheese and you're the lemon merchant, you get it? And he knows it. That's why he's gonna kill us. So we got to beat it, ya, before he lets loose the marmosets on us.[/i]
Ren Hoek wrote:Have you ever considered that the scum targeted scotmany, knowing that he'd be busdriven with a player that a townie might consider scummy? Have you considered that the scum might have made sure that all the main suspects were townies?
Have you considered that the scum may not be that clever, and made no calculations whatsoever, and simply felt safe enough that they wouldn't be a bus driving target?
Yes, I discuss the possibility of the kill being redirected to you or Seraphim for a reason.
Ren Hoek wrote:Aren't you doing a lot of work to merely demonstrate that Goatrevolt's alignment is not diagnostic of mine, and you just plain think I'm scum regardless of Goatrevolt?
No, because the reasoning in the two cases is completely different.
@Goat: My theory isn't that you were trying to safe him from being lynched, my theory is that you were trying to make him seem "confirmed pro-town". In order for this to happen, Ren had to be at L-1 when the kill was submitted, otherwise he wasn't in "danger" of being lynched when the kill resolved.
I don't believe there was much danger of a quicklynch at all. Most of the players in this game are reasonably experienced. They know that getting information out of a day is important, and therefore that it is usually not a good idea to quicklynch. As an example of this, I would like to point to post 19 of the quicktopic Adel posted (between her and Sensfan) where he mentions he wants to get more information out of this day.
And the number of hoops you had to jump through was too high? I've seen you jump through each of those hoops in turn.
Goatrevolt wrote:Do you have any other suspects besides Ren?
At this point, unfortunately, no. I've read the thread once to get a feel for what's going on, but I haven't read it thoroughly. I haven't had the time yet to look at the cases being made in detail, or to take a close look at different players. I have used the time I had available after reading the thread to focus on my main suspect after the initial read, and to look closely at a part of the game I felt was extremely important.
Once again, Michel makes a post with a bunch of assumptions and mindless calculations that do not matter. Mafia is not about calculations. Before you even made your initial post about Ren, you assumed that he was scum. With that in mind, you had an agenda to try and place reasoning on your vote. Not only have you used calculations to try and justfiy your belief that ren is scum, but you have not said once why ren is considered scummy. You haven't made one point against him. You aren't scumhunting.
I'm willing to lynch Yos, Adel/Michel, Budja, or SensFan.
[i]Hey Guido, it's all so clear to me now. I'm the keeper of the cheese and you're the lemon merchant, you get it? And he knows it. That's why he's gonna kill us. So we got to beat it, ya, before he lets loose the marmosets on us.[/i]
Budja isn't scum. It makes no sense for BudjaScum to kill TDC. Even with my ability to choose new pairs it still doesn't make sense. Your Budja vote is a waste Ren.
scotmany12 wrote:Budja isn't scum. It makes no sense for BudjaScum to kill TDC. Even with my ability to choose new pairs it still doesn't make sense. Your Budja vote is a waste Ren.
[i]Hey Guido, it's all so clear to me now. I'm the keeper of the cheese and you're the lemon merchant, you get it? And he knows it. That's why he's gonna kill us. So we got to beat it, ya, before he lets loose the marmosets on us.[/i]
Posting this in my sig and all ongoing games:
I just got fired from my job. V/LA until further notice.
(11:04:10 PM) senspizzaline: That's actually my bold prediction for the year
(11:04:19 PM) senspizzaline: Miami finishes 2nd in the AFCE.
(11:05:35 PM) jhawk01b: my bold prediction for the year is that whoever wins the NFC West will have a winning record
scotmany12 wrote:Budja isn't scum. It makes no sense for BudjaScum to kill TDC. Even with my ability to choose new pairs it still doesn't make sense. Your Budja vote is a waste Ren.
It's a point for Budja, but wifom. I'm not sure we should make that simplistic strong assumptions.
@Michel
This elaborate suicide-or-alibi scheme.
I also thought that trying to kill scot was unexpected and somewhat strange.
But your theory of the thing, it just seems too far-fetched.
The general wagon and concentrated accusations of Ren really only happened after his reaction to Budja's and Yos' votes.
That was some 27 hours before the kill happened, and this was early day 1.It just seems unrealistically drastic for scum to pull out and coordinate this suicidal scheme so quick. I think there's overestimation of how inevitable his lynch was going to be, and I think the acts of self-voting and bickering with Sens about being a chicken in themselves made his lynch look much more certain - in your analysis parts of the plan already.
I think, coming out of the morning meeting and before the blowup, the whole trio of Seraphim-Ren-crywolf had suspicion on them.
This pre-Seraphim-kill is interesting votecount and somewhat puzzles me, although you others won't have the certainty of my alignment. But I know there was town-to-town suspicion options.
Michel, how do you rationalise in your Ren-Goat conspiracy the fact that Ren Hoek made a dubious selfvote instead of letting Goat vote him and not looking so bad?
