Newbie 799 - Katana Village (Game Over!)

[Belili]

I agree with lynching truant but don't vote yet pika, please. Let's keep talking a bit. If we're wrong, we lose.

[pikapizza]

Truant

I looked through BEK/Mevorra and I saw no tells of a cop so I knew they couldn't be that.

this sentence is revealing in more ways than one.

my logic is as follows:
:arrow: the town does not know what the setup is.
:arrow: therefore there is no reason to be looking for cop which may or may not exist, and as edmund.angles said, may or may not have dropped coptells.
:arrow: Truant is searching for cop.
:arrow: therefore, Truant must think that the cop exists.
:arrow: with one doctor dead, the only people who know whether a cop exists at this point in time are the cop himself or the scum.
:arrow: the cop would not look for coptells.
:arrow:

therefore, Truant is scum.

not to mention how weird it is that you're looking for coptells if you're town-aligned ??

it also seems to suggest that you don't really care whether who gets lynched as long as it's not a power role...?? what if they were vanilla ???

what happened to looking for scum ??

Belili

personally, i am convinced. if you have any contributions then by all means, but i don't see a point in needlessly dawdling with one-liners saying that you're not sure.

if you have reservations, please state them now.

[Belili]

I'm virtually concinved too... but I was convinced about bek and I don't want to make 3 mistakes in a row on my first mafiascum game lol.

Ok...

2. tubby216 (replaced wickedswami in Day One)
3. Truant (replaced James.Denholm in Day Two; replaced SilverFang in Day One)
6. Belili
7. edmund.angles
8. pikapizza (replaced Lab Mafia in Day One)

Okay from my perspective half of you are scum and half are townie.

Truant is by far the most suspicious - hammering at the last moment with NO good reason despite inferences if not direct calls not to.

Tubby - you put beg at L-1 despite a direct call not to. Given I just accepted it when it happened because I thought there was no way a hammer would fly, but still you were asked not to do it.

Now let's return for a moment to the first round of voting....

(4) WeepingWind - pikapizza, GreenDude, Mevorra, tubby216
(3) Mevorra - nureins, edmund.angles, Belili

Not Voting: WeepingWind, James.Denholm (truant)

Those were the final votes for day 1. Now that we know BOTH were townies, where would the mafia most likely be in this equation? I'll start by taking out the confirmed townies and myself (add me back in in your mind if you suspect me).

(4) WeepingWind - pikapizza, tubby216
(3) Mevorra - edmund.angles,

Not Voting: James.Denholm (truant)

Questions: Is James.Denholm's no-vote an attempt to avoid suspicion and let townies kill townies OR simple inactivity OR actual indecisiveness?

Would the mafia be best served ganging up on weeping and planning on a mevorra lynch the next day?

Or would the mafia be best served splitting votes to avoid tipping off a scumpair?

I'm thinking the mafia strategy would be to split votes. Townies are killing townies, why get in the middle of things? I also think james was just inactive - given he never posted that next day.

I also think james tipped his hand at being a townie after his replacement.

"Unfortunately, my family and I went on a week-long holiday, which only ended a couple of days ago. Stupidly, my ignorance and arrogance led me to not post anything. For that, I am sorry.

But perhaps, it is for the better: You have Truant, who already seems to be a far more committed player than myself.

This game, as well as 805, have caused me to question my own commitment, and I will only be joining a new game if I find a satisfactory answer. "

We would only be served IF truant was a townie, no?

Thus to recap reasons NOT to lynch truant (still think it may be the best option, this is mostly devil's advocate stuff)...

#1 - James gave no scumtells... mainly because he was inactive.
#2 - James gave a townietell when it no longer benefited him.

Day 2 voting...

(4) xBEKx - Belili, nureins, tubby216, Truant
(1) tubby216 - xBEKx
(1) Truant - edmund.angles

Not Voting: pikapizza

2 townies continued their votes from the previous day, myself and neurins. Given that fact, what is a mafia to do? IF they can get a lynch, they're almost set for victory. The town would have to rally from behind and win two in a row. The next two votes DESPITE insinuations and direct calls not to vote were from tubby and truant.

It's impossible to ignore those two votes.

Edmund cast a vote for truant. Pika never got a chance to vote.

Pika and Edmund both started attacking truant right before truant gave the biggest scumtell of the game. Either they were on to something OR one of them is in a scumpair with truant and basically sacrificed truant. Truant takes the lynch the next day BUT pika or Edmund get to say they went after scum and had them lynched.

So for the first day we have these pairs voting similarly

Pika Tubby

For the first day during the Belili wagon, we have these similarities

Tubby Edmund

For the second day we have these pairs voting similarly

Tubby Truant
Edmund Pika (no vote but still attacking the same player)

Notice this means the mafia is intentionally splitting votes at least once. If this is a consistent strategy, who then has never voted with another alive player?

Pika/Truant
Edmund/Truant

So two conclusions

#1 – The mafia is splitting votes as a strategy
#2 – The only possible pair with no vote-sharing involves truant

I’m sorry for the long post but that’s the stream-of-conscious version of my thoughts.

Again, please don’t vote yet though. We have plenty of time and the risks outweigh the benefits of a quick lynch.

[Truant]

Quick point: I also spoke up about not needing a full compliment of votes to end with a lynch, so there was no real need for me to vote to get whose lynch I obviously supported. This would've saved me from coming under pressure as well as looking more townie overall. Instead I voted for somebody who I thought was scum and obviously wrong, but I wanted to save wifom from them as well. Also, the game was slowly dying, with nur and bek not around, we still have the same group that we have now and we're also still available to talk about our suspicions without added distractions in the form of lurkers.

I actually have a plan for the end of yesterday and today, but I'd prefer to wait to reveal it a bit if I could. I will try to address the other concerns soon, but I have to run.

[edmund.angles]

@tubby: you said you would post more later, well it's later now. I'll hold my vote untill you've had your say.

Prod: tubby216

[Belili]

Perhaps it would be useful to take a poll? Have everyone poll-vote for who they want to lynch without actually voting for that person just yet.

I.E., I'd poll for Truant

Just don't accidentally bold your poll vote ><

[tubby216]

i am having a hard time with the annalsys of this game. i am trying to figure out wich is the best way to go right now.

[pikapizza]

Belili

wow... i agree with lynching Truant, but your last post is riddled with logical fallacies and i am having difficulty following your train of thought.

2 townies continued their votes from the previous day, myself and neurins. Given that fact, what is a mafia to do? IF they can get a lynch, they're almost set for victory. The town would have to rally from behind and win two in a row. The next two votes DESPITE insinuations and direct calls not to vote were from tubby and truant.

It's impossible to ignore those two votes.

Notice this means the mafia is intentionally splitting votes at least once. If this is a consistent strategy, who then has never voted with another alive player?

Pika/Truant
Edmund/Truant

:arrow: you think that Truant and tubby216 are possibly a scumpair because they voted together for a quickhammer.

:arrow: you think that Truant and pikapizza are possibly a scumpair because they

DID NOT

vote together.

:arrow: you think that Truant and edmund.angles are possibly a scumpair because they

DID NOT

vote together.

in conclusion, if Truant is scum, then either tubby216, pikapizza, or edmund.angles is his scumbuddy because they either have or have not voted with him.

um such logic...

#1 – The mafia is splitting votes as a strategy

it's true that they have split their votes at least once, but what guarantee do you have they will always split it ?? unless you know for certain that they had split them, your theory is meaningless.

also, i disagree that James.Denholm gave off no scumtells -- he gave off quite a lot.
refer back to post 422.

Truant

post 453

wifom wifom wifom

tubby216

have you figured out what you think is the best way to go yet? or do we need to wait some more...?

[Belili]

Belili

wow... i agree with lynching Truant, but your last post is riddled with logical fallacies and i am having difficulty following your train of thought.

2 townies continued their votes from the previous day, myself and neurins. Given that fact, what is a mafia to do? IF they can get a lynch, they're almost set for victory. The town would have to rally from behind and win two in a row. The next two votes DESPITE insinuations and direct calls not to vote were from tubby and truant.

It's impossible to ignore those two votes.

Notice this means the mafia is intentionally splitting votes at least once. If this is a consistent strategy, who then has never voted with another alive player?

Pika/Truant
Edmund/Truant

:arrow: you think that Truant and tubby216 are possibly a scumpair because they voted together for a quickhammer.

:arrow: you think that Truant and pikapizza are possibly a scumpair because they

DID NOT

vote together.

:arrow: you think that Truant and edmund.angles are possibly a scumpair because they

DID NOT

vote together.

in conclusion, if Truant is scum, then either tubby216, pikapizza, or edmund.angles is his scumbuddy because they either have or have not voted with him.

um such logic...

#1 – The mafia is splitting votes as a strategy

it's true that they have split their votes at least once, but what guarantee do you have they will always split it ?? unless you know for certain that they had split them, your theory is meaningless.

also, i disagree that James.Denholm gave off no scumtells -- he gave off quite a lot.
refer back to post 422.

Truant

post 453

wifom wifom wifom

tubby216

have you figured out what you think is the best way to go yet? or do we need to wait some more...?

I feel sorry for you. I really do. It must be hard not to understand the basic concept of arguing from different points of view - arguing in the alternative to flesh out competing paths of logic.

[Tenchi]

Prods and vote count later tonight or early morning tomorrow.

[Tenchi]

---

VOTE COUNT

Not Voting: tubby216, edmund.angles, pikapizza, Belili, Truant

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch
Deadline: August 14, 2009 9:01 PM PST

[edmund.angles]

I feel sorry for you. I really do. It must be hard not to understand the basic concept of arguing from different points of view - arguing in the alternative to flesh out competing paths of logic.

@Belili: In both your 'paths of logic' you use simplistic assumptions: first, that two votes in rapid succession means both are mafia and second, that mafia always splits votes. From these weird assumptions you draw conclusions and expect them to relate to reality. They have a word for people who argue like that that...............

...........economists.

[tubby216]

since i couldn't fogure out who was scummy i figured i would go with most town or who sticks out as town to me,

that would be

belili
pika
ed
truant

i think a truant lynch is a good way to go

[edmund.angles]

We're not getting any further, someone has to take the leap of faith. I will vote truant in 24 hours.

[Tenchi]

Everybody

except edmund.angles has been prodded.

[tubby216]

prod recieved but nothing new to add

[Truant]

(Sorry about the delay with my posting, this last week and weekend have been extremely hectic).

To edmund: How does giving everybody 3 days (the night phase) to catch up not help people catch up or help to solidify their reads on people? Also, clearly they weren't the cop so I was correct in at least that part of my analysis. I've seen some cops act scummy so that they don't get NK'd by the scum and then can therefore use their investigations.

To Pika: I never said vote analysis is not effective, it's just harder to do correctly. There were still enough major wagons to be able to go through and look for commonalities on the respective wagons. I took the time to reread BEK while waiting for him and nureins and my position that mevorra was scum didn't waiver, and BEK didn't alleviate those suspicions. For my "change of position on hammering" when I came in, I didn't have any read on how people interact with me, and a large part of my game is how people deal with my style. After I could post, see others arguments, then I was less worried about hammering. Also, it was only edmund that questioned me during the end of day2 so there really wasn't that much pressure on me at all, TBH.

To Pika (page 19): Or I was breadcrumbing that we had a cop, and I am he. N1 James was inactive and didn't get an investigation. By "revealing" that we had a cop, it also gives the town more information about our setup without being completely obvious if I could talk enough to keep myself from being lynched. Obviously mev/bek didn't drop cop tells because they weren't the cop. That's how I could be so certain in my read on them.

Also, I look at the possibility that I'm wrong as an overall game theory. It's better to mislynch a vanilla rather than a power role if you're mistaken about the identity of the person you're attacking.

Right now I want the scum to worry if I have a guilty or an innocent result from last night as I was not roleblocked. This leaves the potential for scum to want to counterclaim and perhaps which one they need to sacrifice and potentially get both of them today if I have a guilty on the other.

[Truant]

EBWOP: I was typing that up while the prod was sent out, I think that's pretty good timing.

[Belili]

I have nothing to add either - and sorry for not posting. It was my grandparents' 50th anniversary party out of town.

The fact that everyone supports lynching truant concerns me... because 2 of those people are mafia.

[edmund.angles]

@Truant: I would prefer if you claimed your N2 investigation. Since everyone has named you scummiest the most important thing is to evaluate the credibility of your claim.

This should spark discussion, I wont cast my vote yet.

[tubby216]

should we massclaim at this point?? i have been trying to figure it out so i guess i should just ask

[Truant]

I will admit that I looked scummy especially for the hammer. I didn't see a lot of useful discussion going on and I wanted to get a solid point of information from my night action without being targeted by the mafia, which was successful in that regard, in any case.

To edmund: Actually if it's possible I'd like to see if there's a counterclaim by scum before revealing my result, so that we can get the most possible information from this situation.

[pikapizza]

Truant

i think your so-called breadcrumb is rather dubious.

additionally, if you really are cop and have cleverly announced the details of your plan to get scum to fakeclaim, how likely do you think they are to do it now ??

i will refrain from commenting further until you reveal your N2 investigation.

[Truant]

They also know that it's lylo, and that I've been acting scummy and might be able to get me lynched for the win. Clearly there's enough people that think I'm scummy that it might work. Also, if they don't counter-claim, then we save ourselves from mislynching and get us closer to finding the scum.

[Belili]

They also know that it's lylo, and that I've been acting scummy and might be able to get me lynched for the win. Clearly there's enough people that think I'm scummy that it might work. Also, if they don't counter-claim, then we save ourselves from mislynching and get us closer to finding the scum.

If they don't counter-claim... what? That doesn't make sense. There is only a 50/50 shot that this game has a cop. We won't know until we lynch the mafia roleblocker or, if not, the very end.

Truant - just tell us your alleged investigations already. Please?